NZDUSD Market Analysis

[FXGlory Ltd]

NZDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.11.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:

Upcoming economic data releases from both the U.S. and New Zealand will play a crucial role in determining the future direction of the NZD/USD pair. On the U.S. side, the most anticipated releases include the Core CPI m/m, which is expected to remain steady at 0.2%, and the overall CPI y/y, expected to dip slightly from 2.9% to 2.5%. These inflation figures are significant in shaping the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook and could strengthen or weaken the USD depending on the outcome. Crude Oil Inventories and the 10-y Bond Auction are also on the calendar, with lower oil inventories potentially lifting crude prices, which could influence inflationary expectations.

For New Zealand, the Food Price Index (FPI) is expected to show a modest increase of 0.4%. Although not a major economic indicator, any significant deviation could impact the NZD slightly, especially in the absence of other major economic data. Overall, the combination of U.S. inflation data and New Zealand’s FPI may contribute to a period of volatility for the NZD/USD pair.


Price Action:

The NZD/USD price line recently broke below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a shift to bearish sentiment on the H4 chart. The price action has been forming lower highs and lower lows, a typical characteristic of a downtrend. With the RSI hovering below the 40 level and the stochastic oscillator nearing oversold territory, there is strong potential for continued bearish momentum. Traders should watch for further declines as the bearish structure remains intact, especially if the price fails to break back above the Ichimoku cloud.



Key Technical Indicators:

RSI: The RSI is currently at 38.90, indicating bearish sentiment but not yet oversold. There is room for the pair to continue its downward move before a reversal is likely.

Stochastic: The stochastic oscillator is reading at 29.54 and 41.98, showing potential for a bearish crossover, which could signal continued selling pressure.

Ichimoku Cloud: The price has broken below the Ichimoku cloud, suggesting that the pair is firmly in a bearish trend. A failure to break back above the cloud could lead to further downside.



Support and Resistance:

Support Levels: The nearest support is at 0.6100, which could act as a crucial level to watch for any bearish continuation. A break below this level may see the price heading toward the 0.6050 region.

Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is at 0.6175, near the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud. A break above this level would signal a potential end to the bearish phase, targeting the next resistance at 0.6200.


Conclusion and Consideration:

The NZD/USD H4 chart signals a clear bearish trend with the price breaking below the Ichimoku cloud and forming lower highs and lower lows. Traders should watch the upcoming U.S. CPI data closely, as any surprises could significantly impact the USD and further drive the pair’s movement. On the technical side, as long as the price remains below the cloud, bearish momentum is expected to continue. A break below the support at 0.6100 could accelerate the decline, while a move back above the resistance at 0.6175 would signal a potential shift in sentiment.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
09.11.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

NZD/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.17.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today's NZD/USD performance is expected to be influenced by both US and New Zealand economic data. On the US side, several key reports, such as Retail Sales and Factory Output, are scheduled. Strong retail sales data could reinforce expectations of higher US interest rates, boosting the USD. Conversely, weak sales data might support a dovish outlook for the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President is also scheduled to speak, and any hawkish remarks might further strengthen the USD. On the New Zealand side, the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction report is due, a critical factor since dairy products play a significant role in New Zealand's export economy. Positive data from the GDT auction could lend some support to the NZD.


Price Action:
In the H4 time frame, the NZD USD pair shows signs of a recovery after a previous downtrend. The price action has been bullish in recent sessions, with 7 out of the last 10 candles closing higher. The recent retracement is bouncing off the 38.2% Fibonacci level and approaching the 50.0% level. This indicates that the pair is regaining strength after a short pullback, signaling potential bullish continuation.


Key Technical Indicators:
MA Short (9): The short-term 9-period moving average has crossed above the 17-period long moving average, suggesting that upward momentum is building.
MA Long (17): The 17-period moving average is now acting as dynamic support, confirming that bullish momentum is gaining strength. The crossover is a classic sign of trend reversal, which aligns with the recent bullish price action.
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD line is currently above the signal line, indicating a bullish trend in place. However, the histogram shows slight divergence, suggesting that momentum may slow down in the short term. Traders should monitor closely for any potential bearish crossover, which could signal a trend reversal.
DeMarker (14): The DeMarker indicator currently stands at 0.52, indicating that the market is in a neutral zone with no overbought or oversold conditions. This leaves room for further upward movement before approaching overbought levels, which could support the ongoing bullish trend.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: Immediate support is at 0.6155, aligning with the 38.2% Fibonacci level, followed by 0.6100 as a key psychological level.
Resistance: The first resistance is at 0.6200 near the 50.0% Fibonacci level, with the next level at 0.6230 at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The NZD/USD pair is exhibiting bullish momentum on the H4 chart, supported by positive price action and a moving average crossover. However, key fundamental events for both the USD and NZD are scheduled for today, which could introduce volatility. A breakout above the 50.0% Fibonacci level could trigger a continuation of the uptrend, while bearish data from the US might cap gains or lead to a reversal. It is crucial to monitor the upcoming Retail Sales data and GDT auction results, as these will provide further direction for the pair.


Disclaimer: The NZDUSD analysis provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and traders should conduct their own research and stay updated with the latest developments before making trading decisions.


FXGlory
09.17.2024