Forex market today

[Polakandil]

GBPUSD moves within the price range seen on the H4 timeframe. Prices moved flat with a swing high range of 1.29950 and a swing low range of .1.29370. Even though there was a gap on Monday, it has recovered even though GBPUSD still hasn't broken out on the upside.

Slightly reduced volatility can be seen from the deflated Bolllinger band line. Yesterday's US retail sales data which was higher than expected should have made the USD strengthen, but the impact of the USD strengthening was only temporary and prices continued to rise.

Today's focus is the release of UK CPI data which is expected to fall 1.9% from the previous 2.0%, if the actual data is greater than forecast, GBPUSD may continue the trend.

 

[Polakandil]

Ahead of Australian job data, AUDUSD prices tend to be flat. AUDUSD's price yesterday drew a small body bearish candlestick with a longer wick at the top of the candle.

Yesterday's highest price was 0.67543 and the lowest was 0.67206. The price is now consolidating near the middle band line.
Today there is an important economic schedule related to AUD and USD regarding job data.

According to Forexfactory Job Data Australia, Employment Change last month was 39.7k, expected at 19.9k. Meanwhile, last month's Unemployment Rate was 4.0% and is expected to increase to 4.1%.

Meanwhile, US job data, last month's Unemployment Rate of 222k, is expected to increase by 229k.

 

[Polakandil]

Price movements are volatile, EURUSD which previously rose high at 1.09481 has fallen again near the previous low. EURUSD pulled off a bearish candle yesterday amid mixed US economic data.

EURUSD price formed a high at 1.09404 and a low at 1.08932. The price drew a bearish long-bodied candle with almost no shadow reflecting a sharp decline. Visually, the price is again approaching the previous low.

Yesterday's US economic data showed mixed data, on the one hand unemployment claims pushed the USD lower, with actual data higher than expected. On the other hand, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index pushed the USD to strengthen with actual data greater than forecast. Meanwhile, European economic data Main Refinancing Rate showed the data remained unchanged and remained at 4.25%.

At an ECB conference, President Christine Lagarde said that domestic inflation remained high and wages were increasing at a high rate. He also highlighted wages, profits, and geopolitical factors as potential rising inflation risks.

 

[Polakandil]

Gold drops after record ATH, wary of psychological support. Last Friday, the price of gold fell sharply to a low of $2393 from an open of $2444, a high of $2445 and a close of $2400.

Friday's market mover, US data showed initial jobless claims were released higher than expectations, 243K vs 230K, while the manufacturing index from the Philadelphia Fed jumped to 13.9 from the previous 1.3.

Although geopolitical risks support gold, there is a decline in physical buying in Asia, which may lead the yellow metal to pause.

On the other hand, Austan Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Fed, added Fed officials who welcomed the progress of cooling inflation. Goolsbee said it was very clear that inflation had fallen in the last 12-18 months and considered this to be the fastest rate of inflation ever seen.

Today's focus. There is no important economic data from the economic schedule that is related to the USD. However, traders need to follow market updates even though it is predicted that gold price movements may pause or consolidate.

 

[Polakandil]

The decline in Silver prices loosened near the lower band line. After last week Silver declined for 4 consecutive days, in last Monday's trading the price sought balance near the lower band line.

Silver draws almost an indecision candle like a Doji with short wicks on the top and bottom of the candle. The decline in silver prices may be due to declining Chinese demand due to the economic slowdown.

Besides that, yesterday there was no important news that caught traders' attention, which allows traders to wait for the next important event.

Joe Biden's exit from the 2024 election is hot news in the US which could change the American political map.

Today there are no important economic schedules from the economic calendar according to Forexfactory the market could be less volatile.

 

[Polakandil]

EURUSD fell drawing a long body bearish candlestick yesterday. It continued last week's decline after a lull on Monday.

The disinflation process in the Eurozone is quite encouraging, allowing the ECB to lower interest rates in September. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said September was a much more comfortable month to decide than July.

EURUSD price yesterday formed a high of 1.08962, and a low of 1.08434, there was only a small shadow on the top and bottom of the candle.

Today investors will probably focus on inflation data. PMI data from Germany and France which may influence the value of the Euro.

French Flash Manufacturing PMI data is expected to be 45.8 from the previous 45.4. Meanwhile, the German Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to be 44.1 from the previous 43.5.

 

[Polakandil]

USDJPY extends losses further on hawkish sentiment surrounding BoJ's policy stance ahead of next week's meeting.

Japan's Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in July from 50.0. On the other hand, the Services PMI jumped to 53.9 from 49.4 previously.

The US manufacturing PMI also contracted, decreasing to 49.5 from the previous 51.6, missing expectations of 51.7. Meanwhile, the services PMI rose to 56.0 from the previous 55.3, slightly higher than expectations of 51.7.

Even though the economic data for Japan and the US are somewhat similar, it seems that the difference in the higher Japanese services PMI data has contributed to the strengthening of the JPY.

Apart from these reasons, anticipation of the BoJ raising interest rates at its policy meeting next week, prompted short-sellers to exit their positions and support the JPY.

Meanwhile, the USD is challenged by the possibility of the Fed reducing interest rates next September. CME Group's FedWatch Tool data shows an increase in the probability value of 93.6% for the Fed's interest rate cut by 25 basis points at the September meeting.

Today investors are focused on the release of GDP news and US unemployment claims, which may have an impact on financial markets including the USDJPY pair.

 

[Polakandil]

USDCAD extended its advance reaching a high price level of 1.38478 before rebounding near 1.38224. USDCAD's bullish sentiment started in mid-July and still shows a strong rally until now.

Yesterday the Bank of Canada (BoC) again reduced interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.50%, this is the same as the analyst's expectations of 4.50% from the previous 4.75%. Further rate cuts are likely according to Commerzbank FX strategists.

According to Commerzbank FX strategist Michael Pfister, CAD will still be under pressure until the end of the year, because lowering interest rates will only provide a pause in profits in the real economic sector.

On the other hand, the strong US GDP is another reason that pressures CAD to weaken further. In the GDP Advanced report the US economic data grew at a high rate of 2.8%, double the previous release's 1.4%. Previously, economists predicted GDP growth of 2.0%. On the other hand, US Unemployment Claims data also fell by 235k from the previous 245k, further supporting the strengthening of the USD, previously economists predicted Unemployment Claims of 237K.

Today investors will focus on US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data or CPI, which is the Fed's most preferred tool for considering interest rate policy. Data for June showed the PCE value was 0.1% in line with economists' expectations.

Economists predict that PCE will rise 0.2% from the previous 0.1%, if the actual data is greater than forecast, it usually has a good impact on the USD.

 

[Polakandil]

Gold rose at the start of the market opening.

Gold experienced an increase at market opening marked by a bullish candlestick on the M15 timeframe since market opening. A long candlestick with almost no shadow reflects an increase in gold prices with quite high volatility.

Gold rebounded at the weekend after previously falling to a low of 2352, gold's rebound succeeded in bringing it to a high of 2402 at the time this news was written.

Core PCE Index data on Friday showed an actual value of 0.2%, the same as analyst predictions from the previous revision of only 0.1%. The core PCE Price Index, which excludes fluctuating food and energy prices, rose 2.6% in the same period, matching May's gain but above market expectations of 2.5%.

According to the FedWatch tool, the probability of a target rate hike at the July 31 Fed Meeting is 95.9%. The Fed's interest rate cut could push gold to become a safe-haven asset because it does not provide returns.

Today there is no important news on the economic calendar, perhaps market changes will be more natural without news that has a big impact

 

[Polakandil]

EURUSD slide extends nearly three weeks of decline. EURUSD price hit a low of 1.08023 ahead of Eurozone inflation data and Fed policy.

Looking at price history backward, the decline in EURUSD started July 17 and there is still potential to extend the decline.

This month the Fed predicted to hold interest rates unchanged, a cut is expected at the end of this year around September.

The Federal Funds Rate will be released Thursday, predicted to be unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50%. Therefore, investors will focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's monetary policy statement and press conference to get fresh clues on rate cuts.

Today's important economic data in the European zone, German CPI is forecast to rise 0.3% from the previous revision of 0.1%. French flash GDP is forecast unchanged at 0.2% as per previous revision data.

Meanwhile, in today's US economic data, CB Consumer Confidence is expected to fall by 99.7 from the previous revision of 100.4. Meanwhile, new job openings are predicted to fall by 8.02 M from the previous revision of 8.14 M.

 

[Polakandil]

Gold and Silver surged ahead of the Fed funds rate.

Gold prices jumped yesterday from a low of 2376 to a high of 2412, this drew a long-body bullish candlestick with a small shadow at the bottom of the candle. On the other hand, Silver rose from a low of 27,621 to a high of 28,406, drawing a long-body bull candle with a small shadow at the bottom of the candle.

US economic data released yesterday showed CB consumer confidence greater than expected at 100.3 from a forecast of 99.7 with previously revised data of 97.8. Meanwhile, new job openings were 8.18M, greater than the expected 8.02M with revised previous data of 8.23 M. Even though this data supports the strengthening of gold, it seems that the market will see the Fed's potential in the future.

In this week's trading, several high-impact news that are of concern to traders include the Fed funds rate, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, inflation data, and NFP.

In terms of geopolitical risks, the Israeli government has emphasized that it wants to retaliate against Hezbollah for the rocket attack that killed 12 people at the weekend, but they wants to avoid a regional war in the Middle East. This has eased market concerns.

Today the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data will be released which is predicted to fall by 147k from the previous data revision of 150k. This data measures changes in the number of people employed in the previous month, excluding agricultural and government industries.

Next, the FED will release monetary policy, which is predicted to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.50%.

The CME Group's Fed Watch tool forecasts a 95% chance that the Fed will hold interest rates on Wednesday and a 100% chance that rate cuts will begin in September.

 

[Polakandil]

Gold soared amid US economic data.

Yesterday gold prices extended their gains amid mixed US economic data. The price of gold rises drawing a body bull's candle with a slight shadow on the top and bottom of the candle. The bullish candlestick formed a low of 2403 and a high of 2450.

Data released yesterday, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, showed that the actual data was 122k, smaller than the forecast of 147k with the previous revision being 155k. There is a difference between the exact data and the forecast of 25k, which shows an unfavorable value for the USD. ADP (Automatic Data Processing, Inc.) is economic data that measures the estimated change in the number of workers in the previous month, excluding the agricultural and government industries.

Meanwhile, the Employment Cost Index data shows that the actual data is 0.9% smaller than the expected 1.0% from the previous data revision of 1.2%. This economic data is considered important because It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when companies pay more for labor, the higher costs are usually passed on to consumers.

In other economic data, Chicago PMI showed actual data of 45.2, slightly greater than the expected 44.8 with the previous data revision of 47.4.

Pending Home Sales data shows actual data of 4.8% greater than expected 1.4% with previous data revision of -1.9%. This data measures changes in the number of contract homes that will be sold but are still waiting for the transaction to close.

Meanwhile, the Fed still left interest rates unchanged at 5.50%, even though Powell said he would cut interest rates once this year, predicted in September. According to the FedWatch tool from CME, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September rose to 90.5%.

Today investors are still waiting for other inflation data, Unemployment Claims, and Manufacturing PMI.

 

[Polakandil]

AUDUSD continues to fall amid the Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.50%.

AUDUSD draws a long body bearish candlestick with small shadows on the top and bottom of the candle. Price formed a high of 0.65595 and a low of 0.64883.

Yesterday's US economic data saw the Fed keep interest rates unchanged at 5.50%, although the Fed may cut interest rates at the end of the year.

While unemployment claims increased by 249k from the previous 235k, analysts expected 136k, much less than expected meaning less good for USD.

Manufacturing PMI data was mixed, Final Manufacturing PMI 49.6 was slightly higher than the previous 49.5, still indicating contraction. ISM Manufacturing PMI 46.8 was lower than the previous 48.5, less supportive of USD strengthening>

ISM Manufacturing PMI showed 52.9 slightly higher than the previous 52.1, there was an increase in prices paid on goods and services.

The decline in AUDUSD was also influenced by the PBoC's recent rate cut weakening the Chinese yuan, which harmed the Australian dollar due to Australia's economic relations with China

The RBA is also expected to maintain interest rates at 4.35% at its upcoming meeting as recently published inflation figures in Australia have reduced the likelihood of further tightening.

Today investors will focus on NFP data which is forecast at 176k with previous data revised to 206k. The Unemployment rate data is predicted to be 4.1% from the previous revision of 4.1% too.

 

[Polakandil]

USDCHF extends losses due to increased demand for safe-haven currencies.

Last week, USDCHF drew a long body bearish candlestick indicating a sharp decline extending the previous decline. USDHF has tended to move downwards since May, reflecting increased demand for the Swiss Frank currency, which is one of the safe-haven currencies.

On D1 last week at market close, USDCHF formed a bearish long-body candle reflecting strong bearishness.

USD/CHF continued its losing streak after the release of Swiss Consumer Price Index data on Friday which showed an increase of 1.3% in line with expectations for consistency in July.

CPI data also matched expectations, falling -0.2% from the previous 0.0%.

On the other hand, US economic data which weakened the USD also encouraged strengthening the Franc Swiss. The NFP data was 114k which was much smaller than the expected 176k with the previous revision of 179k. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate data was 4.3%, up from the expected 4.1% from the previous revision of 4.1%.

Today the market is focusing on ISM Services PMI data which is expected to rise to 51.4 from the previous revision of 48.8.

 

[Polakandil]

Profit-taking brought gold down to $2364.

After the previous day, gold drew an indecision candle where the price formed a small body bearish candlestick with long shadows on the top and bottom of the candle. However, yesterday the price of gold fell sharply from a high of $2458 to a low of $2364.

However, this profit-taking action met resistance from buyers so the price drew a long body bearish candlestick and a long shadow at the bottom of the candle.

Yesterday US economic data, ISM Services PMI showed a value of 51.4 somewhat higher than the expected 51.1 with the previous data revision of 48.8. This economic data is one of the drivers for the USD to strengthen.

Gold should take support from widespread geopolitical risks in the Middle East, where attacks on Israel are now besieged on several fronts by Iran, Yemen, and Lebanon. Reportedly, Israel's ally, America, asked Jordan for permission to use its airspace to prevent attacks by Israel's enemies.

However, the gold price phenomenon is quite interesting, because there are other factors that investors consider.

China, which is the largest importer of gold, is also experiencing a vulnerable phase due to poor domestic demand. Caixin Manufacturing PMI surprisingly contracted in July to 49.8.

Meanwhile, slowing US economic growth has also triggered market changes. The July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed that labor demand slowed significantly. The Unemployment Rate jumped to 4.3% versus expectations and the previous release of 4.1%.

However, according to the Fedwatch tool, there is a decline in confidence that the Fed will cut interest rates. This tool estimates the Fed rate in bps 475-500 at the level of 73.5% while the estimate of 500-525 is only 26.5%. The Fed will probably cut interest rates in September, which is predicted to be a reduction of 50 bps.

 

[Polakandil]

AUDUSD gets little RBA interest rate support.

Yesterday AUDUSD drew a bullish candlestick with rather long shadows on the top and bottom candle indicating the market is fluctuating. Price formed a high of 0.065412 and a low of 0.64717, open at 0.64955 and close at 0.65191.

Previously, AUDUSD price volatility showed the price falling at the low on August 5 at 0.63485 and drawing a Pin bar pattern indicating that in a bearish market, there was buyer pressure trying to take over the market direction.

At its meeting yesterday, the RBA still maintained interest rates at 4.35% for the seventh time today. The market seems not to respond much to the RBA interest rate as expected. Australia's still high inflation is the reason RBA Governor Bullock maintains high interest rates.

The RBA projections that inflation will not fall within the target range of 1-3% in the second quarter and forecasts an increase to 3.8%. The potentially restrictive RBA may support AUDUSD in the long term compared to the Fed which may cut interest rates at the end of the year and is expected in September.

Furthermore, the RBA Governor saw a decline in shares due to a weak reaction to the US employment report on Friday and fears of a recession in the US. The Australian dollar staggered, falling up to 2.4%, and tried to recover on Tuesday.

Today there is no high-impact news in the economic calendar, but investors may focus on RBA Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter to see potential hawkishness or dovishness. New Zealand's high-impact news on employment and unemployment data may have an impact on NZD despite its slight correlation with the Australian dollar.

 

[Polakandil]

NZDUSD gains amid supportive New Zealand job data economic news.

NZDUSD price extended its increase yesterday drawing a long-body bullish candlestick with a rather long shadow on the top candle. The price reached a new high of 0.60245 on the support of New Zealand jobs data.

Yesterday, the release of Employment Change data showed a value of 0.4%, higher than expected -0.2% with the previous data revision of -0.3%. This change in the number of workers provides an indication of an increase in job creation, which is a leading economic indicator that reflects the majority of the entire economy.

On the other hand, the data released for the Unemployment Rate was 4.6% compared to the expected 4.7% with a revision of the previous data of 4.4%. Even though it is down compared to previous data, it is higher than analyst predictions. The number of unemployed is an important signal of overall economic health that correlates with consumer spending, although it is a lagging economic indicator.

These two economic indicators include high-impact news and yesterday NZDUSD formed a low of 0.50458 and a high of 0.60245 closing at a bullish candle at 0.59923. NZDUSD had fallen on August 5 at a low of 0.58493 but the whipsaw brought the price up to a close by drawing a bearish candlestick with a long wick small body. After that, prices tend to extend their increase.

Today the economic data that investors may pay attention to is Inflation Expectations, the previous data showed 2.33%. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand expects that the inflation target in the future will materialize into real inflation, so this could be related to interest rate policy.

 

[Polakandil]

Gold surged amid better US jobless claims data.

An interesting event happened with gold yesterday. After gradating since gold's sharp decline on August 5, gold prices are back to soar after successfully crossing $2400.

Gold price drew a long-body bullish candlestick with almost no shadow forming a high of $2427 and a low of $2378.

According to analysts, this precious metal soared because encouraging data from the United States (US) provided relief to financial markets, thereby weighing on demand for the US Dollar.

US jobless claims data showed actual data of 233k from the expected 241k with a revision of previous data of 250k. Decreasing unemployment claims indicates overall economic improvement.

With improving economic conditions enabling the inflation target to be achieved so that the public confidence index rises, the Fed will cut interest rates in September.

Meanwhile, geopolitical risks still support gold as a safe-haven asset.

Next, investors will focus on Fed officials who allow dovish or hawkish statements.

Today there is no important economic schedule related to USD, but there is news that may have a high impact on CAD regarding job data.

 

[Polakandil]

Gold prices are stable at market opening.

Gold price activity did not experience significant fluctuations on Monday, although it rose slightly, the movement was still within the previous price range of low volatility.

This can be seen on M15 where the flat BB line with narrow band spacing reflects the gold price space within the $2425 floor and $2434 ceiling.

The absence of a gap at market opening may also be due to the absence of a trigger for an increase in gold prices on Saturday and Sunday.

However, expectations of the Fed cutting interest rates may provide positive sentiment for gold. However, it seems that investors are divided in the conclusion that the Fed will reduce interest rates by 50 basis points and some conclude that the reduction will only be 25 basis points.

Data from the FedWatch tool probability interest rates will fall by 25 basis points to 85.1%, interest rates will fall by 50 basis points to 7.6% and interest rates will remain unchanged at 7.3%.

Today there is no high-impact news on the economic calendar schedule, normal price movements are predicted based on technical analysis.

 

[Polakandil]

Ahead of the CPI data, AUDUSD is stable near the 200 MA

AUDUSD drew a bullish candlestick with a small shadow on the top candle yesterday. The price formed a low of 0.65647 and a high of 0.66046 with a close price of 0.65850. The price moved slightly below the 200 MA, drawing a flat channel with a slight upward channel.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser spoke at the Economic Society of Australia Business Lunch event in Brisbane on Monday with several quotes, predicting huge economic uncertainty, inflation remaining high due to weaker supply and a tight labor market, there the risk of unemployment increases more rapidly. Household consumption increases in line with real income.

The market reaction to the quote brought AUDUSD to trade up drawing a bull's candle.

Today investors are waiting for important news that might get a market response. The Australian Wage Price Index is forecast to rise 0.9% from the previous 0.8%. This economic indicator measures changes in the prices companies and governments pay for labor. Actual value greater than the forecast is usually good for a currency.

Next, investors focus on US inflation data, PPI, which is also an important economic indicator used by the Fed to consider changes in interest rates. Core PPI is predicted to fall 0.2% from the previous 0.4%. This data measures changes in prices of finished goods and services sold by producers, excluding food and energy.