Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[RoboForex Team]

EURUSD undergoes a correction ahead of a key US employment report

The EURUSD rate is falling after rebounding from the 1.0885 resistance level. Find out more in our analysis for 1 November 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• US initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since May, coming in at 216,000
• Traders forecast gains of 113,000 jobs in the employment report
• US personal income rose by 0.3% in September 2024, with spending increasing by 0.5%
• On an annual basis, growth in US personal consumption expenditures slowed to the lowest level since February 2021
• EURUSD forecast for 1 November 2024: 1.0922 and 1.0960

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate declines after rising for four days. Investors are focused on the upcoming US employment report, which is expected to confirm the resilience of the US economy ahead of the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting and the presidential election.

The US employment statistics for October close the current trading week, and traders expect 113,000 jobs to be created. However, recent natural disasters may affect the final reading, increasing the likelihood of deviation from forecasts. A muted market reaction to the report will help the EURUSD maintain its current trend as part of today’s forecast.

Meanwhile, US initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to their lowest level since May. The number of Americans who first applied for unemployment benefits decreased by 12,000 to 216,000, while analysts predicted an increase to 230,000 on average.

Additionally, in September 2024, US personal income rose by 0.3% from August, while spending by Americans increased by 0.5%. Last month, the PCE index was up 0.2% compared to the previous month. The annual index growth rate slowed to 2.1%, marking the lowest since February 2021. This indicates potentially easing inflation, which may impact the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy decisions.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

USDJPY rose: a crucial week begins

The USDJPY pair is undergoing a correction, with the US dollar retreating ahead of the US presidential election. Find out more in our analysis for 4 November 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY pair declines
• Safe-haven assets are in demand this week
• USDJPY forecast for 4 November 2024: 151.00 and 150.80

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate fell to 151.75 on Monday.

The Japanese yen has gained an opportunity to strengthen while the US dollar retreats in anticipation of this week’s US presidential election. The next five business days will be tense, with the US presidential campaign nearing its conclusion and the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting. The market will require strength and safe-haven assets.

The Federal Reserve is expected to lower the interest rate by 25 basis points.

Last week, the Bank of Japan left its interest rate unchanged at 0.25% per annum. The central bank is pausing a series of adjustments in monetary conditions as it assesses the risks of a political imbalance in Japan. This adds to the uncertainty regarding the country’s fiscal policy. The interest rate may change in January, but several key economic indicators will be released by then.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

EURUSD awaits the news, with the focus on the US presidential election

The EURUSD pair remains in a consolidation phase. A critical moment is approaching. Find out more in our analysis for 5 November 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The EURUSD pair is consolidating
• Initial, accurate data on the US presidential election will emerge a few days after the vote
• EURUSD forecast for 5 November 2024: 1.0950

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is hovering around the level of 1.0878 on Tuesday.

The stock market holds varied opinions on who will win the US presidential election. Over the weekend, Donald Trump was the favourite, and the US dollar was rising. Now, support has shifted to Kamala Harris.

The major currency pair will undoubtedly experience increased volatility this week. The only question is its direction. According to stock market consensus, the US dollar could decline by 1-2% if Harris wins, and it may rise significantly if Trump emerges victorious.

The election winner will only be known a few days after Tuesday’s vote. Trump will likely challenge any signs of defeat, as he did in 2020.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

USDCAD resumed growth: the market is watching the US election results

The USDCAD pair is confidently rising, with the US dollar in demand as the majority of votes favour Trump. More details in our analysis for 6 November 2024.

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

• The USDCAD pair surges
• The market is following the first reports on the US presidential election
• USDCAD forecast for 6 November 2024: 1.3950

Fundamental analysis

The USDCAD rate rose to 1.3921 on Wednesday.

Although the pair declined yesterday evening, the situation changed today with the release of the first US presidential election results. The US dollar is in strong demand as presidential candidate Donald Trump gains more votes than his opponent, Kamala Harris.

Canadian statistics remain off the market’s radar. However, the private sector PMI rose to 50.7 points following a four-month decline. Oil prices also increased after OPEC+ decided to postpone its planned output increase. Although these factors support CAD’s fundamental strength, fortune favours the USD today.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

AUDUSD recouped mid-week’s losses

The AUDUSD pair is rising on Thursday, with the Aussie supported by the RBA’s stance. More details in our analysis for 7 November 2024.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

• The AUDUSD pair halted its rapid decline
• A tough RBA stance helped reduce this week’s losses
• AUDUSD forecast for 7 November 2024: 0.6688

Fundamental analysis

The AUDUSD rate recovered on Thursday, reaching 0.6620.

The Australian dollar has successfully recouped nearly all recent losses, supported by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish outlook and market optimism over potential measures to stimulate the Chinese economy.

The AUDUSD pair fell by 1.9% yesterday due to pressure from a strong US dollar following Donald Trump’s resounding victory in the US presidential election.

The RBA left the interest rate unchanged this week and signalled that monetary policy would remain restrictive for some time, supporting the AUD position.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Gold (XAUUSD) found support around 2,643 USD

XAUUSD prices declined to 2,643 USD as part of a correction amid the US dollar’s strengthening, driven by the US election. The asset encountered strong demand at this level and is attempting to reverse upwards. More details in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 8 November 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: Donald Trump confidently won the US presidential election
• Market focus: the US Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate by 0.25%
• Current trend: a local correction is underway as part of the uptrend
• XAUUSD forecast for 8 November 2024: 2,643 and 2,710

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes continue to trade within a local correction, after which upward momentum is expected to resume. The decline in Gold prices was due to the growth of the US dollar, supported by Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election.

At yesterday’s meeting, the Federal Reserve unanimously decided to lower the interest rate by 0.25%, aligning with market expectations. In its accompanying statement, the US Fed noted that labour market conditions have generally improved, and inflation continues to gradually move towards the 2.0% target.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

USDJPY: the yen has a strong chance of strengthening

Stable bank lending and the Bank of Japan’s summary of opinions may support the yen’s strengthening against the US dollar. Discover more in our analysis for 11 November 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Japan’s Bank Lending Rate (y/y): previously at 2.7%, currently at 2.7%
• The Bank of Japan summary of opinions
• Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey: previously at 49.0%, currently at 47.5
• USDJPY forecast for 11 November 2024: 150.55

Fundamental analysis

Japan’s Bank Lending Rate shows the total funds Japanese banks provide to borrowers, including businesses and individuals. The indicator is an important gauge for understanding economic activity, as growth in lending indicates increased spending and investment. The Japanese central bank closely monitors bank lending to regulate monetary policy effectively and stimulate economic growth.

An increase in bank lending volume signals economic recovery, as rising demand for loans reflects confidence in economic prospects.

Fundamental analysis for 11 November 2024 indicates that the lending rate remained at the previous level of 2.7%, which may suggest a stabilisation in Japan’s economy and inflation.

The Bank of Japan’s summary of opinions is a report released after BoJ monetary policy meetings. This document outlines the principal opinions and discussions of the Policy Board members concerning the current economic situation, inflation, and financial conditions in Japan. It provides insight into the Bank of Japan’s assessment of economic risks and potential measures it may implement to stabilise inflation and promote sustainable economic growth.

The summary of opinions is valuable to analysts and investors as it indicates potential changes in Japanese monetary policy.

Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey is a monthly indicator measuring economic sentiment and expectations among representatives from various Japanese business sectors, including retail, transport, and services.

The index is based on surveys of professionals directly involved with consumers, enabling timely observations of changes in demand and public sentiment.

The index consists of two parts: current economic conditions and expectations for the coming months. An increase in the index indicates economic improvement, while a decline signals potential economic challenges. The indicator is widely used to forecast short-term trends in the Japanese economy.

Although the forecast for 11 November 2024 suggested the index could fall to 47.2, the actual reading was 47.5. While this exceeded the forecast, it was below the previous level. Nevertheless, the actual result may be viewed positively for the Japanese yen.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

USDCHF is on the rise: the US dollar leaves no alternatives

The USDCHF pair is rising, with investors favouring the US dollar. More details in our analysis for 12 November 2024.

USDCHF forecast: key trading points

• The USDCHF pair has gained significantly
• The SNB may lower the interest rate by 50 basis points at once at its December meeting
• USDCHF forecast for 12 November 2024: 0.8850

Fundamental analysis

The USDCHF rate is rising to 0.8811.

In this pair, as in USDJPY, the strong market bias towards the US dollar leaves the second currency with little support. Investors believe that the protectionist policies promoted by the administration of the elected US President, Donald Trump, will drive up inflation. This will force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher than expected, favouring the USD.

Switzerland’s inflation eased to a three-year low, reaching 0.6% in October.

This data has heightened expectations of an interest rate cut from the Swiss National Bank at its December meeting, with borrowing costs potentially reduced by 50 basis points at once.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

USDCAD: the pair continues to reach new highs

The latest data from the US indices suggest that the US dollar is likely to strengthen further. Discover more in our analysis for 13 November 2024.

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

• The Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index: previously at 48.41
• US core Consumer Price Index (CPI) (m/m) in October: previously at 0.3%, projected at 0.3%
• US core Consumer Price Index (CPI) (y/y): previously at 3.3%, projected at 3.3%
• US CPI (m/m): previously at 0.2%, projected at 0.2%
• USDCAD forecast for 13 November 2024: 1.4040

Fundamental analysis

The Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index measures consumer sentiment based on a target group survey. The index fell to 48.41 last month, indicating negative consumer sentiment. Given that the index has declined over the past three months, the forecast for 13 November 2024 may be unfavourable for the Canadian dollar as the actual reading may fall again.

The CPI reflects changes in consumer prices of goods and services and is a key indicator for the direction of purchases and US inflation. Readings below the forecast are considered negative for the US dollar, while stronger-than-expected figures are considered positive.

The CPI is forecast to remain unchanged at 0.3% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year. Expectations that the estimates will align with actual data are low so far. A better-than-expected performance in US fundamental indicators could further boost the USDCAD rate.

Fundamental analysis for 13 November 2024 indicates that the US CPI (m/m) is projected to remain at last month’s level of 0.2%. While such figures are encouraging for the national currency, they are not yet indicative of a significant positive shift.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

EURUSD: the euro falls along with the eurozone’s industrial production

The decline in the eurozone’s industrial production and the stagnation of GDP growth may further weaken the euro against the US dollar. Discover more in our analysis for 14 November 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Eurozone Q3 GDP (y/y): previously at 0.9%, projected at 0.9%
• Eurozone industrial production (m/m): previously at 1.8%, projected at - 1.3%
• US continuing jobless claims: previously at 1,892 thousand, projected at 1,880 thousand
• EURUSD forecast for 14 November 2024: 1.0540 and 1.0505

Fundamental analysis

GDP reflects the total value of all goods and services produced in a country; considering only end products, excluding raw material costs.

Fundamental analysis for 14 November 2024 shows that eurozone GDP may remain around 0.9%, consistent with the previous period. GDP has demonstrated modest growth over the past few months, suggesting that stronger-than-forecast data could support the euro.

European industrial production reflects the eurozone’s total output, including utility services, industrial plants, and mines. The previous reading was 1.8%, and the forecast for 14 November 2024 suggests a decline to -1.3%. Industrial production in the eurozone continues to contract. Negative readings could be due to expensive energy tariffs, forcing companies to reduce production or even shut down, further adding negative pressure on the euro.

US continuing jobless claims reflect the number of recurring claims for unemployment benefits. Fundamental analysis for 14 November 2024 indicates that claims may decrease to 1,880 thousand. Compared to the previous period, the forecast appears favourable for the US dollar. The actual reading may differ from expectations, but if it exceeds the last figure, it will support the US dollar.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

USDJPY develops a rally: the yen is again a victim of market developments

The USDJPY pair continues its ascent as investors assess Japan’s GDP data. Discover more in our analysis for 15 November 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY pair moves in line with the rally
• Investors assess the latest Japanese GDP statistics
• USDJPY forecast for 15 November 2024: 157.15

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate surged to 156.38 on Friday.

The market is scrutinising today’s statistics. Japan’s economy grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2024, a significant slowdown compared to the 0.5% growth in Q2. Nevertheless, this marks the second consecutive quarter of positive growth. On a year-on-year basis, the economy expanded by 0.9%, significantly below the 2.2% level of Q2.

Uncertainty remains high regarding the normalisation of the Bank of Japan’s policy. Mixed statistics and recent political developments suggest an even gloomier outlook. Making critical decisions under such conditions proves challenging.

The USDJPY forecast is so far in favour of the US dollar.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

EURUSD remains subdued: the market continues to favour the US dollar

The EURUSD pair starts the week quietly, with the US dollar maintaining its strength. Find out more in our analysis for 18 November 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The EURUSD pair opened the week on a stable note
• All market sympathies are with the US dollar as investors expect reduced activity from the Federal Reserve
• EURUSD forecast for 18 November 2024: 1.0400

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is hovering around 1.0531 on Monday morning.

Last week ended with the most substantial weekly gain for the US currency in a month, driven by a global reassessment of expectations regarding future US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Investors are factoring in President-elect Donald Trump’s pro-inflationary policies and adjusting their outlook accordingly.

This benefits the US dollar, as heightened inflationary pressures would compel the Fed to maintain higher interest rates than previously anticipated.

Last Thursday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted that the regulator need not rush into cutting rates, causing a widespread revision of expectations for the Federal Reserve’s December decision.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

USDJPY: the yen may continue to lose ground

The increase in US building permits and a Fed official’s speech may support the US dollar. Discover more in our analysis for 19 November 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• US Housing Starts in October: previously at 1.354 million, projected at 1.340 million
• US building permits in October: previously at 1.425 million, projected at 1.440 million
• Speech by Federal Reserve official Jeffrey Schmid
• USDJPY forecast for 19 November 2024: 157.60

Fundamental analysis

Housing Starts, representing the total number of projects initiated during the reporting month, are compiled from surveys of property owners and construction companies. These statistics cover approximately 95% of all housing projects in the country. The data are adjusted for seasonal factors and weather conditions to improve accuracy.

This indicator is published during the second ten-day period of each month as part of the general construction report, including data on building permits and completed projects. According to the fundamental analysis for 19 November 2024, construction activity may decline to 1.340 million from the previous reporting period. However, this decrease is not critical and is unlikely to impact the USDJPY rate.

Building permits reflect the seasonally adjusted number of permits issued to start new projects. These figures represent an annualised housing construction rate and should be interpreted as the projected number of permits for the year if current trends persist. This indicator is considered a vital metric of the housing market and a reflection of the overall state of the economy. As a leading metric for one of the most critical economic sectors, building permits provide insight into broader economic trends. The forecast for 19 November 2024 anticipates an increase in issued building permits to 1.440 million. Although the rise is modest, it is a positive factor for the US dollar.

Fed official Jeffrey Schmid, the CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, is scheduled to deliver a speech by the end of the US trading session. His report may include data on the near-term development of the US monetary policy.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Lower BoC rate expectations add to pressure on the USDCAD

The USDCAD rate is testing the critical support area. Find out more in our analysis for 20 November 2024.

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

• The strengthening of the Canadian dollar is due to a rise in Canada’s inflation to 2% in October 2024
• Prices increased across five of eight CPI components, primarily driven by petrol price growth
• Weaker expectations of a substantial Bank of Canada rate cut are putting pressure on the USDCAD currency pair
• USDCAD forecast for 20 November 2024: 1.3900

Fundamental analysis

The USDCAD rate is bouncing off the 1.3950 support level. The currency pair is slightly correcting after declining for two consecutive trading sessions. The US dollar lost over 1% amid buyers’ failure to gain a foothold above the 1.4100 level. The current strengthening of the Canadian dollar is fuelled by inflation data, which eases expectations about the size of the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts.

Canada’s inflation rose to 2% in October. Prices increased across five of eight CPI components, primarily driven by petrol price growth. The return of inflation to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target suggests that rate cuts will continue, but the size of cuts will depend on the analysis of economic data. According to today’s USDCAD forecast, lower expectations of a substantial BoC rate cut will further pressure the currency pair, contributing to a potential breakout below the key 1.3950 support level.

Market expectations about the Fed’s policy also changed. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasised economic resilience, which allows the regulator to maintain a restrained approach to interest rate cuts. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a December rate cut decreased to 58.9% from 76.8% a month ago.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

EURUSD halted its decline: correction is complete; the market awaits news

The EURUSD pair has halted its decline. The market is awaiting greater clarity on Trump’s policy. Find out more in our analysis for 21 November 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The EURUSD pair is no longer in a downward trend
• The market is analysing what to expect from the new US White House administration
• EURUSD forecast for 21 November 2024: 1.0464

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is consolidating around 1.0552 on Thursday, following yesterday’s decline.

Investors are exercising caution as they await further data on the future actions of US President-elect Donald Trump. Additionally, forecasts of a less aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate cut have already been priced into the primary currency pair.

The market needs to interpret what exactly Trump’s campaign promises mean not only for the US but also for the rest of the world.

The US dollar has strengthened by over 2% since the US presidential election.

The EURUSD forecast for today remains neutral.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team