Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[RoboForex Team]

USDJPY heads down: demand for the yen has risen significantly

The USDJPY pair is losing ground. The market favours the yen as a safe-haven asset. Discover more in our analysis for 5 September 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY pair fell to a two-month low
• Japan’s robust domestic statistics and weak US reports are supporting the yen
• USDJPY forecast for 5 September 2024: 141.46

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate halted its decline near the 143.69 level.

The pair is hovering near a two-month low after an active two-day sell-off. The yen’s strength is now based on the latest statistics from Japan. Data showed that real wages in the country rose in July for the second consecutive month, adding 0.4% y/y. Overall cash earnings increased by 3.6%.

This aligns with the Bank of Japan’s forecast for moderate economic growth rates. Additionally, such data supports expectations of wage increases, which will lead to higher overall inflation.

In addition to domestic statistics, the yen benefitted from growing market demand for safe-haven assets following the release of relatively weak US statistics. The figures reminded investors of a potential recession in the US economy, which boosted demand for safe-haven assets. The USDJPY forecast suggests local growth in the yen.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

EURUSD rose: the market awaits US employment market statistics

Supported by expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s policy, the EURUSD pair returned above 1.1100, rising for the third consecutive session. Find out more in our analysis for 6 September 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The EURUSD pair has resumed steady growth
• Today, investors are awaiting the crucial US employment sector releases for August
• EURUSD forecast for 6 September 2024: 1.1133, 1.1026, and 1.0985

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate climbed to 1.1115.

The first release of US employment market data for August surprised the market yesterday. ADP private sector jobs increased by only 99,000, missing the forecast of 144,000 and falling short of the previous increase of 122,000. While there is no direct correlation between these figures and nonfarm payrolls, the sentiment is clear: the employment market is losing jobs.

This may prompt the US Federal Reserve to act even more swiftly than planned. In this context, today’s statistics are crucial, with the US unemployment rate report for August scheduled for release this evening. The main forecast suggests a decrease to 4.2% from 4.3%. Nonfarm payrolls could expand by 164,000 following previous growth of 114,000. However, statistics may bring surprises.

The EURUSD forecast suggests an increase in volatility later this afternoon.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Gold (XAUUSD) remains in a sideways range; the market awaits US inflation statistics

The XAUUSD price has been trading in a sideways range for three weeks; the direction of the price movement out of the range may determine the future trend. The market will focus on US inflation data this week. Find out more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 9 September 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: market participants are awaiting US inflation statistics this week
• Current trend: gold is consolidating within a sideways range
• XAUUSD forecast for 9 September 2024: 2,532 and 2,470

Fundamental analysis

Friday’s US employment market statistics aligned with the forecasts, with nonfarm payrolls showing growth of 142,000 and the unemployment rate declining to 4.2%. US stock indices responded to this data with a fall, and gold also corrected downwards from its annual high of 2,532 USD to 2,500 USD.

Market participants will focus on US inflation statistics this week, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) scheduled for release. A decline in inflation will exert pressure on the USD and help strengthen gold. Conversely, a rise in inflation will support the US dollar, potentially causing XAUUSD quotes to fall.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

USDJPY remains flat: the market is awaiting signals

The USDJPY pair has halted its rise and is consolidating. Investors have a busy week ahead. Find out more in our analysis for 10 September 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY halted its ascent
• The market is still betting on a decisive monetary policy tightening by the Bank of Japan
• USDJPY forecast for 10 September 2024: 139.70

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is hovering around 143.25 on Tuesday. Last week’s gains for the yen appear to be offset, with the US dollar regaining ground ahead of the release of crucial inflation statistics this week.

The JPY rate rose by more than 3.00% over the past week, with the USDJPY pair falling to annual lows. This became possible due to expectations of future decisive steps by the Bank of Japan. In making a decision to raise interest rates before the end of the year, the BoJ could be supported by the continued growth of wages in the country and persistent inflationary pressure.

It became known a little earlier that the Japanese economic growth rate slowed in Q2. The country’s GDP grew by 2.90% year-over-year, falling short of the preliminary estimate of 3.10%. The USDJPY forecast is still neutral.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

USDCAD: the US dollar continues to strengthen

The US consumer price index at last year’s level and the rest of the fundamental data package may further drive the USDCAD pair. Discover more in our analysis for 11 September 2024.

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

• The Thomson Reuters/Ipsos primary consumer sentiment index in Canada (PCSI): previously at 50.06
• The US consumer price index (m/m) for August: previously at 0.2%, projected at 0.2%
• The US consumer price index (y/y) for August: previously at 2.9%, projected at 2.5%
• USDCAD forecast for 11 September 2024: 1.3700

Fundamental analysis

The primary consumer sentiment index is calculated by Thomson Reuters/Ipsos and measures consumer sentiment based on a target group survey. The index increased to 50.06 last month, indicating positive consumer sentiment. The forecast for 11 September 2024 may be disappointing for the Canadian dollar, with the USDCAD rate continuing its ascent after a correction.

The expected fundamental news for the USDCAD pair may be called neutral. According to analytical forecasts, almost all data may be released in line with expectations or with minor deviations.

There is a package of US news, including year-over-year and month-over-month consumer price indices for August. They reflect changes in consumer goods and services prices and are key indicators for the direction of purchases and US inflation. Readings below the forecast are considered negative for the US dollar, while those above are considered positive.

The forecast suggests that the CPI index may remain flat at 0.2% month-over-month and slightly decrease to 2.5% year-over-year. Expectations that the estimates will align with actual data are so far low. An increase in indicators may further boost the USDCAD pair.

Despite the news, the USDCAD forecast for 11 September 2024 appears positive for the US dollar as it may strengthen its position against the Canadian dollar. Actual data aligning with the forecast may also drive growth in the pair.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

EURUSD: rising US core inflation has almost ruled out a 50-basis-point Fed interest rate cut

The EURUSD rate is slightly correcting following a decline caused by a rise in US inflation. Discover more in our analysis for 12 September 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• US core inflation unexpectedly rose by 0.3% in August from July, marking the highest reading in four months
• The likelihood of a 50-basis-point Federal Reserve interest rate cut at the next meeting is virtually ruled out, while the odds of a 25-basis-point cut (market expectations) are 87%
• The European Central Bank is expected to lower the key rate by 25 basis points today
• According to analysts, the EURUSD rate may fall to 1.0200 by the end of the year amid ECB monetary policy tightening
• EURUSD forecast for 12 September 2024: 1.0986 and 1.0950

Fundamental analysis

US core inflation unexpectedly rose in August, driven by increased housing and travel prices. The core CPI, excluding food and energy costs, increased by 0.3% from July, marking the highest reading over the past four months. Headline inflation ran at 0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y. This unexpected rise in inflation may prevent the Federal Reserve from lowering interest rates aggressively despite signs of a slowing employment market.

The current inflation data changed market expectations, pushing the EURUSD rate slightly down. The likelihood of a 50-basis-point Federal Reserve interest rate cut at the upcoming meeting is now virtually ruled out. Instead, expectations of a 25-basis-point cut are estimated at 87%, while the odds of a more significant 50-basis-point reduction have dropped to 13%. The market has already priced everything in, although analysts had expected to get clarity on interest rate issues only by Friday.

At the same time, the European Central Bank is expected to lower the key rate by 25 basis points today. This decision is due to the fact that inflation in the eurozone eased to 2.2% in August, wage growth slowed, and the GDP Q2 growth forecast was revised to 0.2%. According to analysts, the EURUSD rate may decline to 1.0200 by the end of the year amid ECB monetary policy tightening in response to the weakening economy. The current ECB meeting may directly impact today’s EURUSD forecast and become a significant catalyst for the currency market, showing that the regulator can cut rates faster than currently expected.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

USDJPY at annual lows: this is not the end yet

The USDJPY pair continues to fall. The Japanese yen has risen to new highs. Find out more in our analysis for 13 September 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY pair declines rapidly
• The yen receives support from the Bank of Japan’s hawkish statements
• USDJPY forecast for 13 September 2024: 139.70 and 137.77

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate fell to 140.99 on Friday, marking another annual low. This became possible due to the hawkish comments from a Bank of Japan member. Yesterday, Bank of Japan Policy Board member Naoki Tamura said that the regulator should raise short-term interest rates to 1.00% by fiscal 2026 to reach the inflation target of 2.00%.

This is not the only strong statement in recent days. Junko Nakagawa has previously noted that the Bank of Japan is ready to hike interest rates further. This will be relevant if the economy and inflation align with forecasts.

Rating agency Fitch revised its interest rate expectations. The borrowing cost is now projected at 0.50% by the end of 2024, 0.75% by the end of 2025, and 1.00% by the end of 2026.

The yen has benefited from the global weakening of the US dollar. The USDJPY forecast suggests further sell-offs in the pair.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

GBPUSD continues to rise following a correction

Improving UK house price index and US manufacturing index figures support the British pound. Discover more in our analysis for 16 September 2024.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

• The Rightmove UK house price index (y/y): previously at -1.5%, currently at 0.8%
• NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (US): previously at -4.7 points, currently at -4.1
• GBPUSD forecast for 16 September 2024: 1.3177 and 1.3199

Fundamental analysis

A monthly change in the Rightmove UK year-over-year house price index was published on Monday, 16 September 2024. The indicator shows how much the average price of housing property for sale has changed. Figures above the forecast and previous data are a positive factor for the British pound. A weaker-than-expected reading reflects negative developments. The previous statistics came out below forecasts, while the current reading has now shifted to positive territory, reaching 0.8% and propelling the GBPUSD rate.

The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index measures the development of the manufacturing sector in New York State. It is calculated based on a survey of 200 largest manufacturing enterprises. A reading above zero points to increased manufacturing activity, while the one below zero indicates a decline. Stronger-than-expected data may provide significant support to the US dollar. The forecast for 16 September 2024 suggests that the reading will remain in negative territory at -4.1, which is still negative for the US dollar.

Fundamental analysis for 16 September 2024 does not provide arguments in favour of the US currency, so the pound sterling has every chance to continue its upward momentum after the correction.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

EURUSD: expectations for a 50-basis-point Fed interest rate cut are growing

The EURUSD rate is correcting after declining for three consecutive sessions, with losses exceeding 1.19%. Discover more in our analysis for 17 September 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The likelihood of a 50-basis-point Federal Reserve interest rate cut is 69%, while the odds of a 25-basis-point rate reduction is 31%
• Investors are awaiting data on US retail sales and industrial production today, which are projected to decrease slightly
• Some analysts believe the US economy continues to grow, which may support the US dollar
• EURUSD forecast for 17 September 2024: 1.1115 and 1.1026

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate continues to test the 1.1130 level, with the US dollar remaining under pressure as investors await the crucial Federal Reserve meeting, where interest rates are expected to be cut for the first time since 2020.

The markets have already priced in a possible 25-basis-point Federal Reserve interest rate cut. However, expectations are rising for a more significant 50-basis-point cut. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the likelihood of this event currently stands at 69%, up from 59% a day ago. The odds of a more modest 25-basis-point cut are estimated at 31%.

Today, investors are awaiting the release of US retail sales and industrial production data to better assess the state of the economy. Forecasts suggest a slight decrease in the figures. According to some analysts, the US economy continues to grow, outperforming most other countries; hence, the US currency is not expected to weaken sharply.

Nevertheless, BNP Paribas experts believe the situation may change if the US economy begins to slow down. In case of a possible recession, the Federal Reserve will likely lower interest rates more aggressively than other central banks, which may weaken the US dollar and increase its vulnerability.

As shown by Goldman Sachs research, the US dollar typically strengthens if rates are reduced amid economic growth. It is also noted that the US currency shows strong positions if the Federal Reserve cuts rates simultaneously with other central banks. In the current situation, several major central banks are cutting rates, which may positively impact the US dollar movements as part of today’s EURUSD forecast.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

USDCAD: markets expect a faster interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada

The USDCAD rate is declining on Wednesday after rebounding from the crucial resistance level. Find out more in our analysis for 18 September 2024.

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

• Inflation in Canada eased to 2.0% in August, the lowest in 3.5 years
• Inflation data supports the Bank of Canada governor’s statements that the pace of interest rate cuts may be accelerated
• Housing starts in Canada fell by 22.3% to 217,000 in August, marking the lowest reading since November 2023
• USDCAD forecast for 18 September 2024: 1.3695

Fundamental analysis

The USDCAD rate is influenced by inflation data as investors are confident in further monetary policy easing by the Bank of Canada.

Inflation in Canada continued to slow, reaching 2.0% in August. This is the lowest reading in the past 3.5 years and is in line with the regulator’s forecasts, which expected inflation to ease to 2.5% in the second half of 2024. However, analysts believe inflation may rise again as the August slowdown is partially due to falling global fuel prices.

This data reinforces statements by Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem about a potential acceleration of the pace of interest rate cuts amid concerns about the employment market and an expected fall in oil prices. The markets now anticipate a 50-basis-point interest rate cut, which may lead to sharp price fluctuations as part of the USDCAD forecast for today.

However, high mortgage rates and rents continue to exert pressure on inflation, indicating ongoing challenges in the Canadian economy despite the overall inflation easing. This is further confirmed by the data on a sharp decrease in construction: housing starts fell by 22.3% to 217,000 in August 2024, the lowest since November 2023 and well below market expectations of 258,000.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

USDJPY: markets await the Bank of Japan's decision

The USDJPY rate is correcting after rebounding from the 143.40 resistance level. Find out more in our analysis for 19 September 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Jerome Powell’s comments: further large interest rate cuts will not be the new standard
• US economic data expectations: focus on initial jobless claims and existing home sales
• The Bank of Japan decision: the current interest rate is expected to remain unchanged on Friday, but signals of future hikes are possible
• Japan’s inflation data: the core CPI is projected to decrease to 2.5%, potentially affecting BoJ’s further actions
• USDJPY forecast for 19 September 2024: 141.30, 139.10, and 137.77

Fundamental analysis

Investors, who expected sharp fluctuations in the USDJPY rate after the US Fed interest rate cut, saw a more restrained reaction. The US dollar rate strengthened on comments from Federal Reserve Chair Powell that the regulator does not intend to rush to ease monetary policy and that a 50-basis-point rate cut will not become a regular occurrence. However, analysts believe the relative calm will not last long, with the markets likely to face unexpected fluctuations in the coming hours as rate expectations in other economies intensify.

Investors will now be closely watching the upcoming US economic data, including initial jobless claims and existing home sales. Initial jobless claims are expected to decrease from 230,000 to 226,000. Such a slight reduction may signal stability in the employment market, which is a significant indicator for assessing the state of the US economy. Existing home sales are also projected to fall from 3.95 million to 3.91 million homes. The slowdown in the real estate market may be due to elevated interest rates, which make mortgage loans more expensive, reducing demand for home purchases.

The Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision will also be in the spotlight on Friday and may significantly change today’s USDJPY forecast. The regulator is expected to maintain current monetary policy parameters, keeping the interest rate unchanged. However, the BoJ may signal potential future rate hikes, especially if inflation and economic indicators change noticeably. Investors are also keeping a close eye on Japan’s inflation data for August, which is due on Friday. The core CPI is projected to fall to 2.5%. This will indicate easing inflation, which will reduce the pressure on the BoJ when making further decisions.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

EURUSD analysis: euro strengthens despite positive US data

The EURUSD rate is experiencing its third consecutive trading session of gains, although it remains below the critical resistance level of 1.1200. In this EURUSD analysis for 20 September 2024, we explore the latest market movements, provide a EURUSD forecast, and offer trading signals for the pair.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• US jobless claims: the number of new jobless claims in the US dropped to 219k, the lowest in four months, reflecting a robust labour market
• Secondary home sales: US home sales declined by 2.5% in August, but lower mortgage rates might drive sales shortly
• Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index: the index rose unexpectedly to 1.7 in September, surpassing forecasts and possibly supporting the USD
• EURUSD forecast for 20 September 2024: the outlook remains bullish for today, with the euro expected to continue its upward trend, targeting a potential rise to 1.1222

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar remains under pressure due to the start of the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut cycle, which may indicate a likely rise in the EURUSD pair. The 50 basis points cut, the first one since 2020, was more significant than expected by the market. Currently, the probability of the Fed lowering the interest rate by 50 basis points at the next meeting on 7 November 2024 is 42.9%, while the likelihood of a 25-basis point cut is 57.1%.

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time fell by 12,000 last week to 219,000, the lowest level in four months. Economists had expected the figure to remain at 230k, and the current decline indicates a robust US labour market.

Secondary home sales in the US fell 2.5% in August to 3.86 million homes at an annualised rate. Despite this decline, analysts believe that the recent reduction in mortgage rates could boost sales in the coming months.

The manufacturing activity index released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia showed an unexpected increase in September after a sharp drop in August, which could support the US Dollar within the EURUSD forecast for today. According to the latest data, the index of general industrial activity rose from a seven-month low of -7.0 in August to 1.7, exceeding the forecasts of economists who expected the index at -1.0.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

USDJPY rises: investors are uncertain about the Bank of Japan's position

The USDJPY pair is continuing to rise. The yen lost more than 2% last week. Read more in our analysis for 23 September 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• USDJPY is steadily rising
• The yen is under pressure from the Bank of Japan's indecision
• USDJPY forecast for 23 September 2024: 145.55 and 146.76

Fundamental analysis

USDJPY rose to 144.35 on Monday.

Thus, the yen is extending last week's losses amid market confidence that the BoJ will not be too quick to raise the interest rate. An earlier BoJ meeting ended with the BoJ keeping borrowing costs unchanged at 0.25% p.a.

At the same time, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda acknowledged some weakness in the economy. His tone was softer than at previous meetings, undermining the prospect of a rate hike at the October meeting. That said, investors still expect to see a rate hike at the December meeting.

The yen also faced external pressure. After the US Fed reduced its rate, risk appetite increased. The forecast for USDJPY looks positive.

Today is a holiday in Japan – Autumn Equinox Day. The country's markets are closed.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Brent crude oil continues its upward correction, trading near 74.00 USD

The Brent price is experiencing an upward correction, bolstered by investor optimism following the recent Fed rate cut. However, despite the current correction, the overall trend remains downward, and further declines are possible. For more detailed insights, read our Brent analysis and market outlook for today, 24 September 2024.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• US data: today, the market is anticipating the release of the API oil inventories data, which is expected to provide a significant indicator for the short-term direction of Brent prices
• Current trend: an upward correction of oil prices is underway within a broader downtrend
• Brent forecast for 24 September 2024: 75.00 and 70.00

Fundamental analysis

Brent prices are seeing a corrective rise after finding support in the demand zone of 68.00-68.50 USD. This price rebound is driven by the US stock market strengthening and growing investor optimism over the Federal Reserve’s shift toward monetary easing.

Today, all eyes are on the API’s report on oil reserves in the US, which could provide further news on Brent’s trajectory. A decline in inventories may offer short-term support for Brent prices, while an increase could generate a bearish signal, potentially accelerating the downtrend. Additionally, tomorrow’s report from the EIA will provide more clarity on the future Brent forecast.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Gold (XAUUSD) continues its upward rally; price climbs above 2,650 USD

The XAUUSD price reached a new all-time high this morning at 2,670 USD. The trend for gold remains upward, though a downward correction may start soon – read about it in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 25 September 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: gold is steadily rising following the US Fed rate cut
• Current trend: a strong uptrend is underway
• XAUUSD price forecast for 25 September 2024: 2,640 and 2,700

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are steadily rising, reaching a new all-time high of 2,670 USD after the US Fed cut its interest rate by 0.50% last week. The onset of the rate-cut cycle is putting pressure on the US dollar.

Gold’s growth is also supported by weak economic data from the US – Yesterday’s Consumer Confidence index from the Conference Board was worse than expected: instead of the anticipated 103.9 points, the index came in at 98.7. As a result, the precious metal closed the day with solid gains against the US dollar.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

AUDUSD strengthens due to China’s stimulus measures

AUDUSD is regaining some of its lost ground after falling more than 1% the previous day. Read more details in our analysis for 26 September 2024.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

• Support for the Chinese economy stimulates demand for Australian exports, which helps AUDUSD to strengthen
• The Australian Consumer Price Index declined to 2.7% in August, falling within the central bank’s target range
• The Reserve Bank of Australia maintains a tight policy, keeping the interest rate at 4.35% despite the falling inflation rate
• AUDUSD forecast for 26 September 2024: 0.6910 and 0.7017

Fundamental analysis

The AUDUSD rate rose on Thursday after bouncing from the support level at 0.6815. According to analysts, the Australian dollar is strengthening due to China’s stimulus package, which may boost demand in Australia’s largest export market.

Australia’s Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% year-on-year in August 2024, below market forecasts of 2.8% and worse than July’s 3.5%. This is the lowest inflation rate since August 2021 and the first time it has fallen within the central bank’s target range in three years. The inflation decline resulted from the energy bill compensation programme, which led to a 17.9% fall in electricity prices and a reduction in the cost of motor fuel.

The Reserve Bank of Australia left the key rate at 4.35% at its September meeting and indicated that the current policy rate could be maintained for an extended period. However, the current slowdown in inflation reinforces expectations of a rate cut by the end of the year. Governor Michele Bullock has indicated that interest rates will remain unchanged for now. This hawkish stance sets the Reserve Bank of Australia apart from other central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, which has begun to ease its monetary policy to support the economy. For today’s AUDUSD forecast, this may support the pair’s growth.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

NZDUSD forecast: the New Zealand dollar continues to lose ground against the US dollar

Rising PCE and Michelle Bowman’s speech could support the US dollar - read more in our analysis for 27 September 2024.

NZDUSD forecast: key trading points

• US Core PCE (YoY): Previously 2.6%, Forecasted 2.7%
• Speech by Michelle Bowman, member of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
• CFTC NZD Net Speculative Positions: Previously -1.9K
• NZDUSD forecast for 27 September 2024: 0.6222 and 0.6140

Fundamental analysis

The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (Core PCE) is an economic indicator measuring changes in the cost of goods and services consumed by US households (excluding food and energy prices due to their high volatility). The index is one of the most important inflation indicators in the US, which the Federal Reserve System uses to assess economic conditions and make decisions on monetary policy.

The previous value was 2.6% on an annualised basis. The forecast for 27 September 2024 suggests it may increase by 0.1% to 2.7%. Such expectations boost optimism among market participants, although the data may differ significantly. If the published statistics exceed forecasts, it will provide additional support to the US dollar and cause a decline in the NZDUSD exchange rate.

Michelle Bowman, a member of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the Fed’s Board of Governors, is scheduled to deliver a speech. Her report may contain data on future US monetary policy.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) weekly report analyses the volume of speculative positions held by non-commercial traders in US futures markets. It reflects the difference between traders’ long and short NZD positions on the Chicago and New York trading floors. The CFTC report is published every Friday and covers data from as of Tuesday of the current week.

The fundamental analysis for 27 September 2024 shows a notable decrease in positions in the last reporting period, indicating the likelihood of a trend reversal. However, the forecast remains uncertain until the actual data is published.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

EURUSD rises amid US inflation slowdown

The EURUSD rate is strengthening but remains at a strong resistance level of 1.1200. Read more in our analysis for 30 September 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index rose by 0.1% in August, while the annual growth was 2.2%
• The Core PCE index increased by 0.1% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year in August
• Initial jobless claims fell to 218k, a 4-month low
• The likelihood of the Fed rate cut by 50 basis points decreased to 54%, and a cut by 25 basis points increased to 46%
• EURUSD forecast for 30 September 2024: 1.1222

Fundamental analysis

EURUSD is slightly higher on Monday as the US dollar remained under pressure amid poor economic data reinforcing expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased 0.1% in August compared to July, while the annualised growth rate was the lowest since February 2021, at 2.2%, versus the forecasted 2.3%.

The Core PCE (Core Personal Consumption Expenditures) price index, which does not include food and energy prices, also rose 0.1% in August from the previous month and increased by 2.7% annually. The Core PCE index is the Fed’s key indicator to assess inflation risks.

At the same time, data on jobless claims demonstrated the labour market’s resilience. The number of initial applications for benefits decreased by 4,000 to 218,800, the lowest level for the last four months. Analysts had forecasted an increase to 223,400.

Investors await the September US employment report for further signals about the Fed’s policy. The probability of a 50-basis-point interest rate cut at the next meeting fell to 54.0% from 60.3%, while the odds of a 25-point cut rose to 46.0% from 39.7%. Given the weakness of the US dollar and the regulator’s subsequent actions, today’s EURUSD forecast still holds potential for a breakthrough of the 1.1200 level.

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[RoboForex Team]

USDJPY develops upward momentum: the dollar has become the market favourite

USDJPY remains on the upside. Powell and Ishiba supported the USD. Read more in our USDJPY analysis for 1 October 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY pair has been ‘in the plus’ for the second consecutive day
• Powell’s comments have reinforced support for the US dollar
• USDJPY forecast for 1 October 2024: 144.47

Fundamental analysis

On 1 October 2024, the USDJPY rose to 144.29, marking the second session in a row with the yen declining against the dollar.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell provided support to the US dollar with his comments, signaling that a rapid reduction of interest rates in the US is not expected. Powell indicated that the Fed might opt for a 25 basis point rate cut in its two remaining meetings this year. The Fed has shifted its outlook from a ‘hard’ rate stance to a softer, more adaptable approach, leading the market to reevaluate its position.

In Japan, political comments from Shigeru Ishiba, former defence minister, added pressure on the yen. Ishiba emphasised that Japan's fiscal policies should remain flexible, reflecting the nation's current economic conditions.

The USDJPY outlook continues to favour the US dollar, and further gains are anticipated.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Gold (XAUUSD) reverses down from resistance at 2,670 USD

Gold (XAUUSD) experienced a reversal after attempting to break through the resistance at 2,670 USD. Today, market participants will shift their focus to the US labour market data from ADP, which could significantly impact the XAUUSD outlook. Read more in our analysis for today, 2 October 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: market participants are awaiting today's Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) statistics on the US labour market, which will serve as a potential signal for the next moves in XAUUSD
• Current trend: a correction within the uptrend is underway
• XAUUSD forecast for 2 October 2024: 2,685 and 2,630

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are currently in a moderate downward correction after reaching an all-time high of 2,685 USD last week. Yesterday, XAUUSD prices surged due to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Today's employment data from ADP is expected to reveal 120,000 new jobs. If the data falls below the forecast, it could pressure the USD and strengthen gold, signalling a bullish trend for XAUUSD. Conversely, if job growth exceeds expectations, it would bolster the US dollar, contributing to a bearish XAUUSD prediction and potentially signalling a decline in gold prices.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team