Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[RoboForex Team]

EURUSD stabilises after reaching a seven-month high

The EURUSD rate has declined for the second consecutive session, failing to sustain the levels observed at the beginning of 2024. Find out more in our analysis dated 7 August 2024.

EURUSD trading key points

• The EURUSD pair has stabilised after reaching a seven-month high
• Germany's trade balance surplus decreased to 20.4 billion EUR
• The US recorded a trade balance deficit of 73.1 billion USD
• Markets anticipate a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September
• EURUSD forecast for 7 August 2024: 1.0880 and 1.0860

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate has stabilised near 1.0910 after rising to 1.1007. Investor concerns about a slowdown in the US economy were the primary drivers of the euro's strengthening, while weak employment data have heightened expectations for a more substantial interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve in September.

Meanwhile, Germany's trade surplus fell to 20.4 billion EUR in June, missing expectations due to declining exports and rising imports. At the same time, an unexpected 3.9% increase in Germany's factory orders in July provided a positive signal for the manufacturing sector, which has been facing challenges.

In June 2024, the US recorded a trade deficit of 73.1 billion USD, which, while lower than the previous month, exceeded analysts' forecasts. Exports of goods and services increased by 1.5% to 265.9 billion USD, reaching a four-month high. Imports rose by 0.6% to 339 billion USD, marking the highest reading since June 2022.

Today's EURUSD forecast suggests that markets anticipate a significant 50-basis-point interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve in September, with additional reductions of over 100 basis points throughout the year. However, most analysts consider the recent sell-off in the US dollar an overreaction to weak employment data and do not expect aggressive Federal Reserve action before September.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

EURUSD continues to correct after a surge

A decrease in France's balance of trade and US initial jobless claims may fuel a continuation of the EURUSD correction. Find out more in our analysis dated 8 August 2024.

EURUSD trading key points

• France's exports: previously at 50.4 billion EUR
• France's imports: previously at 58.2 billion EUR
• France's balance of trade: previously at -8.0 billion EUR, forecasted at -7.5 billion EUR
• US initial jobless claims: previously at 249 thousand EUR, forecasted at 241 thousand
• EURUSD forecast for 8 August 2024: 1.0860 and 1.0820

Fundamental analysis

France's exports have remained relatively stable at around 50.0 billion over the past several years, compared to the previous reading of 50.4 billion.

France's imports have also remained steady within the 56-60 billion range over the past year, with the previous reading at 58.2 billion.

The balance of trade shows the difference between the value of a country's exports and imports. A trade surplus indicates that the country exports more than imports, while a negative trade balance means the opposite. The forecast suggests that the trade balance could decrease by 0.5 billion. This may have no significant impact on the EURUSD rate at present, but it could potentially help strengthen the euro in the long term.

US initial jobless claims represent the number of people who claimed unemployment benefits for the first time during the previous week. This indicator measures the employment market climate, with an increase in initial jobless claims indicating rising unemployment. Analysis for 8 August 2024 shows that initial jobless claims are projected to decrease to 241 thousand, which could positively impact the US dollar. If the actual reading exceeds the forecast, the EURUSD pair could continue its corrective wave.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Gold (XAUUSD) rises moderately, returning to the price area above 2,400 USD

XAUUSD price reversed upwards and closed yesterday's session with a moderate gain, establishing a foothold above 2,400. The upward movement may continue. Find out more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 9 August 2024.

XAUUSD trading key points

• Market focus: gold prices are rising amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East
• Current trend: gold is trading within a broad range; the long-term trend is upward
• XAUUSD forecast for 9 August 2024: 2,400 and 2,450

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes experienced sustained growth yesterday, returning to the price area above 2,400 USD. The downward correction appears to be over, and gold may test its all-time high of 2,483 in the short term.

Fundamentally, the XAUUSD rate is supported by expectations for an imminent US Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which will gradually cause the US dollar to lose ground. Gold is also in demand as a safe-haven asset amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

USDJPY may continue its ascent after a recent decline

A positive USDA report may support the US dollar and drive further growth in the USDJPY rate. Find out more in our analysis dated 12 August 2024

USDJPY trading key points

• US Department of Agriculture (USDA) report on world agricultural supply and demand estimates
• A report on US federal budget execution: previously at -66.0 billion, forecasted at -254.3 billion
• USDJPY forecast for 12 August 2024: 150.00 and 155.25

Fundamental analysis

The monthly US Department of Agriculture (USDA) report provides up-to-date forecasts for global and national balances between the supply and use of key cereal crops, soybeans, derivative products, and cotton. Additionally, it includes data on US domestic supply and consumption of sugar and livestock products. Positive key indicators may support the US dollar against the Japanese yen.

The monthly federal budget execution report estimates the difference between government revenues and expenditures for a specific month by calculating the difference between inflows and spending. A negative reading indicates a budget deficit, while a positive reading suggests a surplus. Analysis for 12 August 2024 shows that a budget deficit is projected to increase to -254.3 billion US dollars. This could negatively impact the US dollar, causing the USDJPY rate to fall.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

USDCHF is strengthening amid a mixed situation in Switzerland

Although the USDCHF rate is rising for the second consecutive session, it has yet to secure a position above the resistance level. Find out more in our analysis dated 13 August 2024.

USDCHF forecast: key trading points

• Switzerland's consumer confidence index increased to -32.4 points in July 2024
• Retail sales in the Swiss economy fell by 2.2% year-over-year in June
• Unemployment numbers increased in July 2024, reaching a four-month high
• USDCHF forecast for 13 August 2024: 0.8645 and 0.8505

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar shows moderate strength. Tomorrow's US Consumer Price Index could significantly influence forecasts for future Federal Reserve interest rate changes and increase volatility in the USDCHF rate. Analysts note that high CPI readings might limit an interest rate cut to 25 basis points, while low readings could lead to a reduction of 50 basis points or more in September.

Switzerland's consumer confidence index rose to -32.4 points in July 2024, up by 4.2 points from the previous value and significantly above analysts' forecasts. This indicates increased optimism among the population, although the overall sentiment remains negative.

Meanwhile, Switzerland's retail sales unexpectedly decreased by 2.2% year-over-year in June 2024, marking a significant decline compared to the projected 0.5% growth and the previous reading.

The number of unemployed people rose by 3,198 in July 2024, reaching a four-month high of 107,716. Although the unemployment rate remained low at 2.3%, this raised concerns among investors. According to the USDCHF forecast for today, Switzerland's weak economic data may support the growth of the US dollar.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Meta's shares are trading at an all-time high. Is there potential for further growth?

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) stock is the only stock among the Magnificent Seven that did not fall after the release of its Q2 2024 report. The company showed robust performance over the past quarter. This article will provide a fundamental analysis of Meta Platforms, outlining its strengths and weaknesses and examining a forecast based on a technical analysis of Meta's stock.

Meta Platforms Q2 2024 report

Meta announced solid financial Q2 2024 results. Below are the figures compared to the same period in 2023:

• Revenue – 39.74 billion USD (+22%)
• Net income – 13.46 billion USD (+73%)
• Earnings per share – 5.16 USD (+73%)
• Operating margin – 38% (+900 basis points)
• Advertising revenue – 38.20 billion USD (+21%)
• Number of daily active users – 3.27 billion (+7%)

Advertising remains the primary revenue stream, contributing to 96% of the company's total revenue. The Reality Labs unit, which specialises in developing virtual and augmented reality (VR and AR) technologies, has only generated losses so far. By the end of Q2 2024 results, Reality Labs' loss reached 4.50 billion USD, an increase of 21%.

Meta Platforms, Inc.'s forecast for Q3 2024

Meta's Chief Financial Officer, Susan Li, forecasts revenue for Q3 2024 to be between 38.50 billion USD and 41.00 billion USD, representing a 12–20% increase compared to the same period in 2023. The Reality Labs division is expected to continue incurring operating losses, which are anticipated to grow as the company invests in new product development and expands its ecosystem.

Capital expenditures for 2024 are projected to be between 37.00 billion USD and 40.00 billion USD, 2.00 billion USD more than previously estimated. Further increases in spending are expected in 2025, as the company plans to invest in artificial intelligence research and the development of new products.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

USDJPY has risen: the US dollar is in a strong position, while the yen is afraid of the news

The USDJPY pair is in positive territory. The market evaluates a variety of news. Find out more in our analysis dated 16 August 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY pair is actively rising
• The yen rate comes under pressure from domestic news
• USDJPY forecast for 16 August 2024: 149.89 and 150.55

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate rose significantly and tested the 149.00 level on Friday morning, resulting in the yen's fall to a two-week low.

The US dollar strengthened on the back of stronger-than-expected US statistics. The released reports somewhat eased stock market concerns about a recession in the world's major economy.

The JPY is under some pressure from domestic political news. It was announced yesterday that Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will not seek another term as his party's leader in September. In fact, this will mark the end of his tenure as the country's prime minister. A local imbalance is not favourable news for the yen. The USDJPY forecast suggests persistent pressure on the yen.

The previously released statistics showed that the Japanese economy has grown by 0.8% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2024, exceeding expectations of a 0.5% increase. The GDP rose by 3.1% year-over-year after declining by 2.3% at the beginning of the year.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

GBPUSD may rise further to 1.3000

The British pound continues to strengthen against the US dollar despite scarce UK news. Find out more in our analysis dated 19 August 2024.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

• The Rightmove UK house price index (m/m): previously at -0.4%, currently at -1.5%
• A speech by Federal Reserve official Christopher Waller
• GBPUSD forecast for 19 August 2024: 1.2798 and 1.2630

Fundamental analysis

A monthly change in the Rightmove UK house price index was published today. The indicator shows how much the average price of housing property for sale has changed over the reporting period. Data above the forecast and the previous value is a positive factor for the pound sterling. Weaker-than-expected statistics reflect negative developments. Although the indicators are currently below the previous readings, they did not have a significant impact on the GBPUSD rate.

Federal Reserve Governor Waller will deliver a speech at the beginning of the US trading session and might shed light on the Fed's monetary policy. A decision to change the US interest rate is expected in September; a reduction is only likely if inflation indicators stabilise. Analysis for 19 August 2024 shows that if the interest rate changes, this could further weaken the US dollar and push up the GBPUSD pair after a correction.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

EURUSD: employment market risks prompt the Fed to lower interest rates

The EURUSD rate slightly declines following two trading sessions of growth. Find out more in our analysis dated 20 August 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The EURUSD pair corrects after two trading sessions of growth and reaching a 33-week high
• Investors refrain from making aggressive investment decisions ahead of a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
• Analysts suggest the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points in September
• EURUSD forecast for 20 August 2024: 1.0980, 1.0933, and 1.0880

Fundamental analysis

After the EURUSD pair reached a 33-week high, its growth slowed. Investors preferred to refrain from making significant bets ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech expected on Friday.

Traders are eagerly awaiting the release of the latest FOMC minutes scheduled for Wednesday as they should provide insight into further monetary policy actions. Analysts believe that the regulator may reduce interest rates as early as September. However, it is still unclear whether this will be a 25 or 50-basis-point cut. The market has probably already priced in a 25-basis-point cut, while a stronger tightening could drive a surge in the EURUSD rate.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said on Monday it was appropriate to discuss a September interest rate cut due to increasing employment market risks. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee supported this opinion in their statements, hinting at a potential move as early as next month. Today’s EURUSD forecast shows that such statements exert pressure on the US dollar.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

EURUSD: employment market risks prompt the Fed to lower interest rates

The EURUSD rate slightly declines following two trading sessions of growth. Find out more in our analysis dated 20 August 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The EURUSD pair corrects after two trading sessions of growth and reaching a 33-week high
• Investors refrain from making aggressive investment decisions ahead of a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
• Analysts suggest the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points in September
• EURUSD forecast for 20 August 2024: 1.0980, 1.0933, and 1.0880

Fundamental analysis

After the EURUSD pair reached a 33-week high, its growth slowed. Investors preferred to refrain from making significant bets ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech expected on Friday.

Traders are eagerly awaiting the release of the latest FOMC minutes scheduled for Wednesday as they should provide insight into further monetary policy actions. Analysts believe that the regulator may reduce interest rates as early as September. However, it is still unclear whether this will be a 25 or 50-basis-point cut. The market has probably already priced in a 25-basis-point cut, while a stronger tightening could drive a surge in the EURUSD rate.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said on Monday it was appropriate to discuss a September interest rate cut due to increasing employment market risks. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee supported this opinion in their statements, hinting at a potential move as early as next month. Today’s EURUSD forecast shows that such statements exert pressure on the US dollar.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

AUDUSD likely to rise further

The Australian dollar may benefit from the forecasted rise in unemployment and a decline in the US PMI. Find out more in our analysis dated 22 August 2024.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

• Australia’s manufacturing PMI: previously at 47.5, currently at 48.7
• Australia’s services PMI: previously at 50.4, currently at 52.2
• US services PMI: previously at 55.0, projected at 54.0
• US initial jobless claims: previously at 227,000, projected at 232,000
• AUDUSD forecast for 22 August 2024: 0.6764, 0.6555, 0.6416, and 0.6200

Fundamental analysis

The Purchasing Managers’ Index reflects a country’s level of manufacturing activity over the previous period. A reading above 50.0 indicates economic growth, while a reading below 50.0 signals a contraction. Australia’s current manufacturing PMI is 1.2 points higher than the previous reading. Although theoretically this increase could be considered a positive sign for the Australian dollar, the index remains below the 50.0 level, which is a negative factor.

Australia’s services PMI also rose from the previous reading, coming in at 52.2 points. Overall, the fundamental analysis of Australia’s data for 22 August 2024 is positive for the AUDUSD rate.

The US services PMI is projected to decrease to 54.0 from the previous reading.

According to the forecast, US initial jobless claims are expected to increase to 232,000 from 227,000 over the past week.

Overall, today’s AUDUSD forecast may be considered favourable for the Australian dollar. However, it is essential to note that the US will release data today, which could affect the market situation.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Gold (XAUUSD) retraces after reaching an all-time high of 2,532 USD, but the uptrend may resume

Although XAUUSD’s price dropped below 2,500 USD as part of a correction on Thursday, the prospects for further growth remain. Find out more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 23 August 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: market participants await today’s speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium
• Current trend: gold is trading in a strong uptrend, with growth likely after the correction
• XAUUSD forecast for 23 August 2024: 2532 and 2450

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes retraced, dropping below 2,500 USD during Thursday’s trading. The recent strong growth in gold prices was largely driven by increased expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this year. The current correction may be due to profit-taking by some investors.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium today. The Fed’s decisive stance on future interest rate reductions will provide gold with additional upward momentum. Conversely, if his speech raises doubts about future cuts, this may strengthen the US dollar and prompt further correction in the XAUUSD price.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Gold (XAUUSD) rises steadily, trading above 2,500 USD per troy ounce

XAUUSD price closed the previous week above 2,500 USD, exhibiting a steady uptrend driven by fundamental factors. Find out more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 26 August 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: gold reached a new all-time high of 2,532 USD last week
• Current trend: gold is trading in a strong uptrend, with growth likely to continue
• XAUUSD forecast for 26 August 2024: 2,532 and 2,483

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes showed sustained growth last week, reaching a new all-time high of 2,532 USD. The rise in gold prices was primarily driven by demand from global central banks and heightened expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this year.

In his speech at the recent Jackson Hole Symposium, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell confirmed the beginning of a monetary policy easing cycle. A September interest rate cut is a done deal, while further Fed actions will depend on economic data. Market participants expect at least one more interest rate reduction by the end of the year.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Brent price begins to rise, surpassing 80.00 USD

Brent price is experiencing steady growth, surpassing 80.00 USD per barrel; today, the focus is on the API oil stock data. Find out more in our Brent analysis for today, 27 August 2024.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• US data: the market awaits the API US oil inventory statistics today
• Brent forecast for 27 August 2024: 78.00 and 81.70

Fundamental analysis

Brent quotes have halted their decline and reversed upwards, finding support at a local daily low of 75.00 USD. Oil prices are being supported by a rise in stock markets, driven by the US Federal Reserve’s intention to start a monetary policy easing cycle, with the first rate cut in September.

Brent price will depend on US oil stock data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) during today’s American session. At the same time, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will provide market participants with oil inventory statistics tomorrow. After the release of these figures, volatility in oil prices may increase.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

EURUSD: risks of a correction are increasing

The EURUSD rate declined after unsuccessful attempts to rise above 1.1200. Find out more in our analysis dated 28 August 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Investor confidence in a 50-basis-point Federal Reserve interest rate cut grows
• The preliminary Q2 US GDP estimate is expected to show an increase of 2.8%
• The core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index is projected to rise by 2.7%
• EURUSD forecast for 28 August 2024: 1.1150 and 1.0980

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate fell below 1.1150 on Wednesday morning, potentially signalling a downward correction. However, as part of today’s EURUSD forecast, the US dollar remains under pressure due to growing expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and concerns about US recession risks.

Investors are confident that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates as early as next month after Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish comments last week. Now, the focus is on whether this will be a 50-basis-point rate cut. According to the FedWatch tool from CME Group, the likelihood of such a significant interest rate reduction has increased to 36% from 29% a week ago.

At the end of the trading week, traders will focus on economic indicators. The preliminary Q2 US GDP estimate is due tomorrow, with the economy expected to grow by 2.8%. The core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, will be released on Friday. It is projected to increase to 2.7% from the previous 2.5%. According to analysts, the inflation rate would need to significantly exceed expectations to change forecasts for several interest rate cuts by the regulator.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

EURUSD: US GDP data may trigger a correction in the pair

ECB officials’ speeches, US initial jobless claims, and the GDP data release could heat today’s market. Find out more in our analysis dated 29 August 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• A speech by European Central Bank official Isabel Schnabel
• A speech by European Central Bank official Philip R. Lane
• The Eurogroup meeting
• US initial jobless claims: previously at 232,000, projected at 232,000
• Q2 US GDP: previously at 1.4%, projected at 2.8%
• EURUSD forecast for 29 August 2024: 1.1090 and 1.1150

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD analysis for 29 August 2024 shows that the market is awaiting a large set of economic data from the eurozone, including speeches by ECB officials, Schnabel and Lane, and the Eurogroup meeting. ECB officials’ speeches often indicate future monetary policy and economic expectations, and increased market volatility can be expected during them.

A set of data, including US initial jobless claims, will be released after the US trading session opens. A preliminary forecast suggests that the figure will remain flat at 232,000, which may support the US dollar’s strength against the euro.

GDP is the aggregate value of all goods and services produced in a country. Only end products are considered, excluding the production of raw materials.

The forecast for 29 August 2024 suggests a 2.8% increase in US GDP, double the previous reading. If actual data aligns with expectations, the EURUSD rate could decline markedly.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

USDJPY forecast: investors anticipate BoJ rate hike

The USDJPY pair is experiencing a slight correction on Friday after two consecutive days of gains. To understand the latest market movements, delve into our analysis for 30 August 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Japan's unemployment rate for July 2024 increased to 2.7%.
• Core CPI in Tokyo rose by 2.4% in August 2024
• Japan's industrial production grew by 2.8% in July 2024, rebounding from a significant decline
• USDJPY forecast for 30 August 2024: 141.60, 139.70, and 137.77

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate was buoyed by recent US GDP and Initial Jobless Claims data, alleviating recession concerns and bolstering the USD. Concurrently, Japan's economic data fuelled expectations of a potential BoJ interest rate hike, which could strengthen the yen within today's USDJPY forecast.

Japan's unemployment rate increased to 2.7% in July 2024, up from 2.5% in June, marking the highest level since August 2023.

Tokyo's core consumer price index rose at an annualised rate of 2.4% in August 2024, marking the fourth consecutive month of acceleration and surpassing market expectations of a 2.2% increase.

Retail sales in Japan grew at an annualised rate of 2.6% in July 2024, slowing from June's 3.8% rise and falling short of the anticipated 2.9% growth.

Japan's industrial production expanded by 2.8% in July 2024, recovering from a sharp -4.2% decline. However, this growth fell short of the forecasted 3.3% (according to preliminary data).

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

EURUSD: the euro attempts to regain ground on US Labor Day

The eurozone’s PMI and the US holiday may not weaken the US dollar. Find out more in our EURUSD forecast dated 2 September 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Today is US Labor Day
• The eurozone’s manufacturing PMI for August: previously at 45.6, projected at 45.6
• EURUSD forecast for 2 September 2024: 1.1005 and 1.1096

Fundamental analysis

Today is a holiday in the US due to Labor Day, which may give the euro a chance to strengthen against the US dollar, as many US traders are unlikely to participate in trading.

The PMI index evaluates the activity of purchasing managers in the industrial sector. This index reflects the state of the industry and the dynamics of industrial processes in the eurozone. Traders closely follow this data as purchasing managers are the first to receive information about their companies’ operations, making the PMI a crucial measure of the general economic situation. Readings above 50.0 points indicate industrial growth, while values below 50.0 points suggest a downturn.

EURUSD analysis for 2 September 2024 shows that the PMI index may remain flat at 45.6, indicating some stability in the industrial sector. However, as it is still below 50.0 points, it is unlikely to impact the EURUSD rate positively.

Investors await a decision on the Federal Reserve interest rates, due on 18 September 2024. US inflation data remains stable; analysts suggest a 50-basis-point change is unlikely at this stage.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

USDCHF: the US dollar awaits a chance to strengthen

The release of Switzerland’s CPI and GDP data and the US PMI data may help the US dollar strengthen its position. Find out more in our analysis dated 3 September 2024.

USDCHF forecast: key trading points

• Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index (m/m) for August: previously at -0.2%, projected at 0.1%
• Switzerland’s GDP (q/q): previously at 0.5%, projected at 0.5%
• US manufacturing PMI: previously at 49.6, projected at 48.0
• USDCHF forecast for 3 September 2024: 0.8572

Fundamental analysis

The Consumer Price Index reflects the dynamics of consumer prices for goods and services. Investors view a higher-than-expected reading as a positive factor for economic health, while a weaker-than-expected reading is considered negative.

For August, Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index (m/m) is projected to return to positive territory. The previous reading was -0.2%, while a forecast for 3 September 2024 is optimistic, suggesting 0.1%. A stronger-than-expected actual CPI reading may strengthen the Swiss franc.

GDP reflects the aggregate value of all goods and services produced in a country (only end products are considered, excluding the costs of raw materials). Switzerland releases quarterly GDP changes in percentage terms, demonstrating the economy’s comprehensive dynamics.

Analysis for 3 September 2024 suggests that the GDP reading may remain flat at 0.5%, and the actual figure will show whether expectations are realised. An increase in the indicator may help strengthen the Swiss franc against the US dollar, while a decrease in GDP will drive further growth in the USDCHF rate.

The US manufacturing PMI evaluates the activity of purchasing managers in the industrial sector, reflecting the state and the dynamics of industrial processes. According to a preliminary estimate, the index is expected to decrease to 48.0 points. Given that figures have been decreasing for the past several months, the actual reading in the current period may be equal to or below the projected value.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Gold (XAUUSD) is under pressure but holds above the crucial support level

XAUUSD price fell below 2,500 USD on Tuesday but stayed above the significant 2,470-2,480 USD support area. The market will focus on US employment data on Thursday and Friday. Find out more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 4 September 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: market participants await US employment statistics at the end of the week
• Current trend: although gold is trading within an uptrend, there are risks of a downward correction
• XAUUSD forecast for 4 September 2024: 2,532 and 2,470

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are trading within an uptrend, supported by the beginning of US Federal Reserve monetary policy easing. However, gold has yet to reach the all-time high of 2,532 USD, as it encounters active selling pressure near this level. The US employment market statistics due Thursday and Friday may influence future asset movements.

Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) will publish employment data on Thursday, while nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate will be released on Friday. A decline in employment could weaken the USD and help strengthen gold. Conversely, job growth could support the US dollar and push XAUUSD into a downward correction.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team