Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[RoboForex Team]

CHF is under pressure: the SNB may lower the rate twice this year

The USDCHF rate declined on Wednesday, 10 July 2024. The pair reacted weakly to the Federal Reserve chair's speech, and the current USDCHF exchange rate is 0.8971.

USDCHF trading key points

• SNB is poised for two rate cuts this year
• The Swiss regulator is clearly discontent with the rising national currency's rate
• USDCHF price target: 0.8930

Fundamental analysis

The USDCHF currency pair has closely approached the 0.8967 support level. Investors are analysing yesterday's comments from Jerome Powell, stating that the Federal Reserve does not plan to lower interest rates until it is confident inflation is steadily moving towards 2%. However, Q1 data does not add to confidence.

On the other hand, traders expect the Swiss National Bank to cut rates twice this year to withstand the franc's potential strengthening. Although the SNB clearly expressed its discontent with the strength of the national currency, a decline in the rate should be limited. On the upside, should inflation rise unexpectedly, the central bank is ready to intervene in the currency market situation if necessary.

Investors estimate the likelihood of another SNB rate cut in September at 50% as Switzerland's recent consumer price index report fell short of expectations again. This may significantly support the US dollar against the franc.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

USDJPY is rising amid uncertainty about the BoJ's actions

The USDJPY rate closely approached weekly highs on Thursday, 11 July 2024. The current USDJPY exchange rate is 161.68.

USDJPY trading key points

• Uncertainty about the BoJ's actions: traders awaiting a rate hike
• Japan's machinery orders: unexpected decrease of 3.2% in May
• USDJPY price targets: 162.00 and 162.52

Fundamental analysis

Intrigue regarding the pace of monetary policy normalisation by the Bank of Japan remains. Markets anticipate that the BoJ may raise interest rates in late July in an attempt to curb the yen's weakening. Analysts' opinions vary, with some believing this will not be enough to halt USDJPY growth in the long term.

Japan's Ministry of Finance officials reiterated their readiness for currency market interventions. Although they currently have a limited effect, they help to keep the yen weakening slowly and moderately.

Recent data showed an unexpected 3.2% (m/m) decline in Japan's core machinery orders in May, indicating a potential economic slowdown. This is another signal favouring a further decline in the yen's rate.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Yen's sharp strengthening: due to currency intervention or faith in the yen?

The USDJPY pair has declined, and investors continue to speculate whether this was driven by hidden financial intervention or unfavourable news from the US.

USDJPY trading key points

• Thomson Reuters/Ipsos primary consumer sentiment index (PCSI) in Japan: previously at 37.69%, currently at 37.63%
• Japan's industrial production (m/m): previously at -0.9%, currently at 3.6%
• CFTC JPY speculative net positions: previously at -184.2 thousand
• USDJPY price targets: 159.70 and 157.22

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate continues to decline today, 12 July 2024. The sharp strengthening of the yen has raised many questions with few answers. Some investors suggest the Bank of Japan has conducted hidden currency intervention, while others believe this was a reaction to US fundamental news. Either way, players who bet on a decline in the USDJPY pair generated profit. The primary consumer sentiment index (PCSI) data has already been released, showing that the index remained practically unchanged and probably had no impact on the quotes.

Despite a 0.9% fall in the previous month, industrial production in May increased by 3.6%, exceeding the expectations of a 2.8% rise and impacting the yen's strengthening. By increasing industrial production, Japan may strengthen its currency without resorting to overt financial intervention.

A likely scenario for further yen strengthening could be the BoJ's comprehensive approach, which would involve solving challenges with inflation and prices for consumer goods and services and covert currency intervention until it is officially announced.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Elon Musk's ambitious projects could elevate Tesla to a new level. Is it worth investing in its stock now?

Over the past 30 days, the yield on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares has exceeded 48%. Elon Musk has grand plans for the company's future.

Is it worth investing in Tesla stock now? What can prevent Musk from implementing his ambitious plans? Find out more in this article.

Tesla shares have experienced a prolonged decline since January 2024, with the price falling by more than 50% in four months. The price decline could be driven by Tesla's refusal to pay compensation of approximately 55 billion USD to Elon Musk, who threatened to leave the company.

The situation changed radically on 13 June when the annual shareholder meeting approved this payment. Since that day, the stock price has significantly recovered, rising nearly 50% in just one month.

Tesla Inc revenue streams

Tesla Inc generates revenue through various sources reflecting the diversity of its products and services. The main ones are listed below:

1. Automotive sales – this includes direct sales to consumers and rentals
2. Regulatory credits – selling regulatory credits to other car makers who need them to comply with environmental standards
3. Energy generation and storage – producing and selling solar energy systems and energy storage devices such as Powerwall (for domestic use), Powerpack (for commercial use), and Megapack (for large-scale energy storage)
4. Services and others – service and repair centres, the Supercharger network, and insurance services for Tesla electric vehicle owners
5. Software and autonomous driving – fees for advanced driver assistance systems (Autopilot), the full self-driving unit (FSD), and software updates

Tesla Inc Q1 2024 financial performance

Today is 15 July 2024, meaning that the second quarter of the year is over. However, Tesla will only release its Q2 report on 23 July, so we will now analyse Q1 2024 indicators. Below is the Q1 2024 financial performance data compared to Q1 2023.

Key data:

• Total revenues – 21.30 billion USD (a 9% decrease)
• Net profit – 1.10 billion USD (a 55% fall)
• Earnings per share – 0.34 USD (a 53% decrease)
• Operating margin – 5.5% (a fall of 592 basis points)
• Capital expenditures – 2.77 billion USD (a 34% increase)

Tesla Inc promising business areas

In January 2024, the Delaware (US) court invalidated a compensation package worth 55 billion USD payable to Elon Musk for his role as Tesla's CEO. Musk criticised this decision and threatened to leave the company unless he received the compensation. He later changed Tesla's registration from Delaware to Texas. At the annual shareholder meeting in June 2024, Musk's compensation package issue was raised again and was approved. Although the real reasons behind this decision can only be speculated upon, it is evident that shareholders are placing another bet on Elon Musk, expecting the company's further growth under his leadership.

Robotaxi

Tesla is actively developing a robotaxi service, where autonomous cars provide transportation services without involving drivers. In the future, Tesla electric car owners will be able to add their vehicles to the robotaxi network when not in personal use and earn money by renting them out as taxis. Consumers will be able to order Tesla robotaxis by using a mobile app similar to Uber and Lyft taxi services.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

JPY loses ground after strengthening

Yen's attempts to strengthen failed. The Japanese currency continues to lose ground against the US dollar.

USDJPY trading key points

• Japan's services PMI (m/m): previously at 2.2%, currently at -0.4%
• US core retail sales index (m/m): previously at -0.1%, forecasted at 0.1%
• US retail sales (m/m): previously at 0.1%, forecasted at -0.3%
• USDJPY price targets: 155.00 and 154.55

Fundamental analysis

After attempting to strengthen against the US dollar, the yen begins to lose ground. Japan's services PMI (m/m) was forecasted to be positive but decreased to -0.4%, affecting the USDJPY rate not in favour of the yen.

The US core retail sales index and retail sales are projected to rise slightly. After the release of actual data, this may help strengthen the US dollar against the yen. However, actual values could be worse than forecasted. In this case, the USDJPY rate may continue to decline as part of a corrective wave.

Hopes for the yen's strengthening and stabilisation are fading away every day. Although currency intervention can save the yen, the Bank of Japan is not yet ready for it.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

China's sluggish domestic demand and economic slowdown jeopardise oil prices

Brent crude oil prices fall on Wednesday, 17 July 2024, declining for the fourth consecutive trading session.

Brent trading key points

• Declining demand in China: oil imports decreased to 46.45 million tons in June
• A slowdown in China's GDP growth: GDP growth rates in Q2 fell to 4.7%
• Brent price targets: 85.90 and 87.72

Fundamental analysis

Recent data on China's oil imports and GDP growth rates raised concerns in the global oil market. Oil imports to China, which is the world's largest consumer of crude hydrocarbons, declined to 46.45 million tons in June, indicating sluggish domestic demand in the country. The slowdown in China's GDP growth rates to 4.7% in Q2, below the 5.3% recorded in Q1, adds to pessimism.

The Chinese economy has traditionally been the driver of global economic activity and fuel demand. The weakening of these indicators could lead to oil oversupply in the market, which will negatively impact the prices. Although the Chinese authorities are taking action to stimulate the economy, it is not clear how quickly these measures will help revive fuel demand.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Gold (XAUUSD) could reach new all-time highs amid US news

Gold continues to rise on Thursday, 18 July 2024, offsetting Wednesday's correction.

XAUUSD trading key points

• The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (US): previously at 1.3%, forecasted at 2.7%
• A speech by US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) official Mary C. Daly
• XAUUSD price targets: 2,434.84, 2,400.00, and 2,386.50

Fundamental analysis

This week's economic data showed a slight increase, helping the precious metal strengthen its position against the US dollar. XAUUSD quotes are maintaining their upward trajectory.

US economic data, including the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, is scheduled for release today. The indicator is projected to rise to 2.7% but it is difficult to foresee what will come. Weaker-than-expected data may exert pressure on the US dollar and push gold prices further up.

A speech by US FOMC official Mary C. Daly last time negatively impacted the US dollar. Investors expect this speech to answer questions about future interest rate changes and inflation growth or slowdown rates. Any response from Mary C. Daly may trigger an immediate market reaction, potentially pushing the XAUUSD to new all-time highs.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Brent prices fall, driven by a sell-off of risky assets

Brent crude oil prices are dropping again. The market has experienced sales growth amid falling prices for risky assets and the US dollar strengthening.

Brent trading key points

• Brent prices are falling due to pressure from the US dollar
• China's plenum did not outline measures to support the economy
• Brent price targets: 85.00, 85.40, 86.90, and 88.00

Fundamental analysis

The commodity market was again under pressure, with a barrel of Brent crude oil falling to 84.73 USD on Friday.

Investors took a more cautious stance when assessing the global economic outlook, resulting in sales in stock and commodity market sales, which contributed to the growth of the US dollar. Statistics showing stronger-than-expected growth in July's industrial production and increased jobless claims amid seasonality also bolstered the USD.

Commodity goods are generally believed to be less profitable to purchase amid USD growth.

Chinese news failed to support the oil sector. China's third plenum ended yesterday without providing any guidelines on measures to revive the country's economy. As China is the world's largest oil consumer, positive signals from this side could support commodity prices.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

JPY is rising amid expectations of BoJ policy tightening

The USDJPY rate declines on Monday morning, 22 July 2024, after a two-day growth. The current USDJPY exchange rate is 156.55.

USDJPY trading key points

• Japan's inflation continues to rise
• The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates next week
• USDJPY price targets: 158.28, 154.80, and 154.66

Fundamental analysis

The Japanese yen is rising after rebounding from the 157.60 resistance level. Investors expect the BoJ to raise interest rates next week amid rising inflation. Consequently, the USDJPY rate has fallen by more than 2% over the past two weeks.

Investors believe the Japanese government is already intervening in the currency market to support the national currency rate. The Bank of Japan's data shows that the authorities could have purchased about 6 trillion yen a week ago.

Although Japan's inflation remained at 2.8% in June, the core index, excluding food and energy prices, jumped to 2.6%. This data reinforces traders' view that the BoJ may start tightening monetary policy despite potential risks for the country's weak economy. The possibility of the yen's rate rising further in the near term persists.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Positive expectations for the eurozone economy support EURUSD

The EURUSD rate slightly rose on Tuesday, 23 July 2024, trading above the key support level of 1.0875.

EURUSD trading key points

• The ECB's decision to keep interest rates unchanged and Lagarde's remarks about a "wide open" September meeting continue to support the euro
• Eurozone, Germany, and France PMIs are expected to improve, and consumer confidence in the eurozone is projected to peak
• EURUSD price targets: 1.0870, 1.0820, and 1.0777

Fundamental analysis

The European Central Bank's decision to maintain the current monetary policy and Christine Lagarde's statement that the upcoming verdict on 12 September remains open, continue to bolster the euro.

Eurozone, Germany, and France PMI data are expected to show a more substantial decline in manufacturing and further growth in the services sector. Additionally, the consumer confidence level in the eurozone is projected to reach its highest level since February 2022. The GfK consumer climate and Ifo business climate indicators are also expected to improve in Germany.

Investors believe that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in September and may do so twice by the end of the year amid slowing US inflation. US key economic indicators such as PMI, GDP, and the PCE price index are due this week and may heighten pressure on the US dollar if they are worse than forecasted.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Brent declined to 80.00, with the market focusing on EIA data today

Brent crude oil prices are declining for the fifth consecutive trading session. Read about it in the analysis for 24 July 2024.

Brent trading key points

• The market awaits EIA data: inventories are expected to have increased by 0.70 million barrels
• Brent forecast for 24 July 2024: 82.80 and 76/80

Fundamental analysis

Brent continues to fall as part of a downward correction, reaching 80.00. Today, market participants await the release of US oil stock data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) during the American session. Inventories are projected to have risen by 0.70 million barrels. A significant divergence between the actual data and the forecast may drive further movement of Brent quotes.

US oil stock data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) was released yesterday. According to the statistics, US hydrocarbon reserves decreased by 3.90 million barrels last week, while the forecast suggested a decline of only 2.47 million. As a result, Brent prices received support and, halting their decline, stabilised around 80.00-81.00.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

EURUSD declines: the market favours the US dollar

The EURUSD pair continues to decline. Investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve's decision on monetary policy easing. For a detailed analysis, please refer to our forecast dated 25 July 2024.

EURUSD trading key points

• The EURUSD pair is falling due to the strength of the US dollar
• The Federal Reserve is expected to provide clarity on its intentions for September
• EURUSD forecast for 25 July 2024: 1.0822 and 1.0777

Fundamental analysis

Yesterday's US PMI data was mixed.

Markit's preliminary services PMI for July increased to 56.0 points from 55.3, while the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.5 points from 51.6.

Key news this week for EURUSD includes the upcoming release of the US Q2 2024 GDP estimate this evening. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index will also be published on Friday. This is one of the most crucial reports for the Federal Reserve, based on which the regulator assesses the inflationary environment.

The US economy is expected to have expanded by 2.0% in April-June compared to only 1.4% in Q1.

The anticipated Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for next week. Few expect the Fed to make significant decisions at this meeting; all predictions are for September. However, the Federal Reserve's remarks regarding its September plans could be more detailed in this case.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

EURUSD: investors await inflation data

The EURUSD rate is slightly rising after rebounding from the 1.0830 support level. Will the US dollar strengthen? Find out in our analysis dated 26 July 2024.

EURUSD trading key points

• US GDP rose by 2.8% year-over-year in Q2
• Germany's Ifo Business Climate Index fell to 87 points
• Traders focus on US inflation data
• EURUSD forecast for 26 July 2024: 1.0874, 1.0818, and 1.0777

Fundamental analysis

The forecast for 26 July 2024 shows that the US economy continues to grow in Q2 2024, albeit at a slowing pace. According to preliminary data from the US Department of Commerce, GDP increased by 2.8% year-over-year, slightly exceeding analysts' expectations. However, this is the lowest reading in the past several quarters, indicating US economic slowdown amid tightening monetary policy. Markets continue to price in a 100% chance of a Federal Reserve cut in September, with expectations for at least one more cut by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, Germany's Ifo Business Climate Index continues to decline, reaching 87 points in July, the lowest reading since February 2024. This reflects rising concerns of German businesses about the country's economic outlook and exerts pressure on the euro rate.

Today, traders focus on the PCE price index report, a key inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve. Previous data showed that inflation eased in Q2 but remained elevated. The overall PCE index rose by 2.6%, while the core index, which reflects steady inflation trends, increased by 2.9%. This data indicates persisting inflationary pressure in the economy and confirms traders' expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

USDJPY falls: the market awaits BoJ interest rate hike

The USDJPY rate is declining after rebounding from the 154.65 resistance level. Find out more about market expectations ahead of the BoJ and Federal Reserve meetings in our analysis dated 29 July 2024.

USDJPY trading key points

• The BoJ is expected to raise the interest rate by 10 basis points
• The market awaits Federal Reserve interest rate cut signals for September
• USDJPY forecast for 29 July 2024: 151.31, 154.50, and 157.10

Fundamental analysis

The Japanese yen is strengthening today, bolstered by market expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike. Investors hope the central bank will take action to curb inflation.

Markets forecast that the BoJ will raise the interest rate by 10 basis points to 0.1% at the upcoming meeting. According to analysts, if the central bank does not increase rates, it will be forced to resort to a more aggressive quantitative tightening policy to prevent sharp fluctuations in the USDJPY rate following the announcement of the decision.

Both the BoJ and the US Federal Reserve meetings are scheduled for Wednesday. The decisions of these central banks will significantly impact the movements of the USDJPY currency pair. While investors expect the Bank of Japan to raise the interest rate, they are also looking for signals from the Federal Reserve about a potential rate cut in September.

Traders note that the USDJPY pair was overvalued, and the current dynamics do not favour the US dollar. Any signs of the Federal Reserve easing monetary policy may significantly push down the dollar-yen rate.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

EURUSD may decline further

The EURUSD rate corrected on Tuesday following an aggressive decline a day earlier. Why does the market remain cautious? Find out more in the analysis dated 30 July 2024.

EURUSD trading key points

• The market awaits the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday for potential interest rate cut signals
• Today, traders will focus on the June job openings and July Consumer Confidence Index
• EURUSD forecast for 30 July 2024: 1.0800 and 1.0775

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair remains under pressure, trading around 1.0815. The market is awaiting the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, following which the base rate will likely remain unchanged but may provide hints about a rate reduction in September. Traders believe that if no clear signal is given about a rate cut, this may help strengthen the US dollar.

Despite higher-than-expected US GDP growth rates in Q2, the likelihood of monetary policy easing remains high. Although inflation has slowed, it continues to be the regulator's concern.

Today, investors will focus on June's job openings data and July's Consumer Confidence Index. The long-awaited July employment report will be released on Friday, significantly impacting traders' expectations about the Federal Reserve's future policy.

Overall, market participants are not inclined to take active action as they await the central bank's dovish decision. In this situation, the EURUSD rate may decline further.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

USDJPY plummets: the market had been anticipating the BoJ's decision

The USDJPY pair is falling rapidly. The Bank of Japan has done its utmost to support the yen. Find out more in our analysis dated 31 July 2024.

USDJPY trading key points

• The Bank of Japan raised the interest rate to 0.25%
• The USDJPY rate is declining rapidly
• USDJPY forecast for 31 July 2024: 151.26 and 150.77

Fundamental analysis

The Japanese yen maintains its upward trajectory, which began a little earlier. The market had anticipated the outcome of the Bank of Japan's meeting. The USDJPY rate is declining.

Japan's interest rate increased by 25 basis points to 0.25% per annum, up from 0%. Additionally, the BoJ announced plans to reduce bond purchases in the second half of the year. This was the most anticipated outcome of the meeting.

In its comments, the Bank of Japan noted that inflation risks for this year and the next have increased. Consumption in the economy is considered stable despite rising prices, and wage growth is accelerating. This is a significant achievement for the Bank of Japan, as wages have been relatively stagnant for a long time.

Japan's GDP is expected to increase by 0.6% in 2024, with the economy expanding by 1.0% in 2025. Core inflation is projected to be 2.5% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Gold (XAUUSD) rises after the Fed's meeting and comments from Chair Jerome Powell

The XAUUSD price increased to 2,458 USD following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and accompanying comments. Find out more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 1 August 2024.

XAUUSD trading key points

• Market focus: The Federal Reserve chair confirmed a potential rate cut in September; the market awaits Friday's US employment data
• Current trend: upward price momentum is underway
• XAUUSD forecast for 1 August 2024: 2,458 and 2,430

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes have reversed upwards, showing steady growth after the US Federal Reserve's meeting and subsequent speech by its chair, Jerome Powell. As expected, the key interest rate remained at 5.5% at this meeting, with all 12 FOMC members unanimously agreeing on the decision.

In his remarks, the Federal Reserve chair noted that the US economy was approaching a point where monetary policy easing might be appropriate and hinted that a rate cut could occur in September. Gold reacted to Powell's comments by rising to 2,458 USD per troy ounce.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Brent crude oil is trading around 80.00 USD; focus on US employment market data today

Brent price is consolidating within a limited range near 80.00 as market participants await US nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate data. Find out more in the Brent analysis for today, 2 August 2024.

Brent trading key points

• US data: the market awaits employment market statistics today
• Brent forecast for 2 August 2024: 82.80 and 78.00

Fundamental analysis

Brent quotes halted their decline as part of a downward correction after reaching a local low of 78.00. This week's US oil stock data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a decrease in oil inventories by 4.49 and 3.43 million barrels, respectively.

Today, market participants are awaiting the release of US July employment statistics, which will reveal nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate. Oil prices will likely be influenced by the reaction of the US stock market to employment data: a rise in the stock market will help strengthen Brent's price, while a decline would push prices lower.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

USDJPY reaches a new low for the year: a decline is just beginning

The USDJPY pair is rapidly falling, with investors having three reasons for this. Find out more in our analysis dated 5 August 2024.

USDJPY trading key points

• The USDJPY pair has fallen to a low not seen since 3 January
• The market is concerned about a US recession
• USDJPY forecast for 5 August 2024: 138.10, 149.80, and 142.00

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is plummeting to 142.96. The market is actively engaging in sales for at least three reasons.

The first reason is the active exit of investors from carry trade operations. Market participants began to exit short positions in the yen after the Bank of Japan signalled its readiness to tighten monetary conditions.

The second reason is concerns about a US recession. Last Friday, the US released a block of weaker-than-expected employment data. Investors are worried that the Federal Reserve might be late in easing monetary conditions, potentially allowing for an economic contraction.

The third reason is the increasing appeal of the JPY as a safe-haven asset amid tensions in the Middle East and their potential global implications.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Positive US macroeconomic data drives USDJPY upwards

The USDJPY rate is rising amid increased business activity in the US. Find out more in our analysis dated 6 August 2024.

USDJPY trading key points

• The US services PMI increased to 51.4 points, exceeding previous readings and analysts' forecasts
• Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President emphasised the importance of preventing a decline in the employment market
• The strongly oversold USDJPY pair makes the Japanese yen vulnerable to positive US economic data
• USDJPY forecast for 6 August 2024: 148.20 and 149.20

Fundamental analysis

The Japanese yen dipped to 145.75 per US dollar, retreating from seven-month highs. This decline is caused by a statement from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly and a stronger-than-expected services report.

The US ISM services PMI rose to 51.4 points in July 2024, up from the previous reading of 48.8 and exceeding analysts' forecasts. The increase is driven by a rise in new orders, which reached 52.4 points in July, up from 47.3 the previous month. This indicator signals increased demand for services and the general strengthening of business activity.

The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Mary Daly, underscored the critical need to prevent a decline in the employment market. She expressed readiness to lower interest rates if necessary and emphasised the need for a proactive policy.

Traders now expect the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy by 110 basis points this year, with the likelihood of a 50-basis-point interest rate cut in September estimated at 75%.

Today's USDJPY forecast indicates that the strongly oversold pair makes the Japanese yen vulnerable to positive US macroeconomic data, prompting investors to shift their preference towards the US currency.

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Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team