BEST COMMODITY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BY CAPITAL STREET FX

[Tushar_CSFX72]

Daily Commodity Analysis – oil dives, corn lows, gold reacts to bonds.

Introduction

WTI faces renewed selling pressure, hovering around $76.00 amid a second consecutive day of retreats. Despite geopolitical risks, a surge in US inventories weighs on oil prices, while OPEC's positive global demand outlook fails to provide support. In the corn market, futures hit new lows, influenced by a red trading session and ethanol-related data. Gold prices tick higher due to sliding US bond yields and geopolitical tensions, while Silver stabilizes above $22, awaiting guidance from US Retail Sales data. Federal Reserve comments suggest a hesitant stance on rate cuts, impacting precious metals.

Markets In Focus Today – Crude OIL

WTI Retreats Further From The Monthly Peak And Seems Vulnerable Near The $76.00 Mark.

WTI remains under some selling pressure for the second straight day on Thursday. A spike in US inventories overshadows geopolitical risks and weighs on Oil prices. The OPEC sees a rise in global demand in 2024, and 2025, albeit fails to lend support. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices extend the overnight pullback from the vicinity of mid-$78.00s, or a fresh monthly peak and drift lower for the second successive day on Thursday. The commodity hovers around the $76.00 mark during the Asian session and remains well within the striking distance of the weekly low touched on Monday.

Technical Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

• MA 10 : 75.9666 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 75.3486 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 75.1257 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

• MA 10 : 75.2912 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 75.5299 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 73.5075 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 54.0784 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 68.9884 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels :

• R1 : 78.6054 R2 : 80.9659
• S1 : 70.9639 S2 : 68.6034

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy : 75.62 | Take Profit: 78.29 | Stop Loss: 74.13

CORN

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[Tushar_CSFX72]

Daily Commodity Analysis – Monitor oil, gas, gold, and silver.

Introduction

Oil prices paused after the International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a forecast indicating slowing demand, contrasting with the optimism sparked by weak U.S. retail sales data hinting at potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The IEA's report projects a slight reduction in global oil demand growth, while OPEC maintains a more optimistic outlook. Natural gas prices reach a new trend low of 1.57, reflecting prolonged bearish sentiment. Gold prices hover around $2,000 following weak U.S. retail sales, still facing weekly losses. Silver experiences a 2.50% surge as lower US bond yields increase its appeal.

Markets In Focus Today – Brent Crude Oil

Oil Flat As Weaker IEA Outlook Weighs On US Rate Cut Hopes.

Oil prices stalled on Friday over a forecast of slowing demand by the International Energy Agency after gaining in the previous session on weak U.S. retail sales data that sparked optimism that the Fed might cut interest rates sooner than expected. Both contracts climbed over 1% on Thursday as a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. retail sales prompted hopes the Federal Reserve will soon start cutting interest rates, which could be positive for oil demand. The IEA's monthly report said it expects global oil demand to grow by 1.22 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, slightly down from last month's estimate. OPEC on Tuesday stuck to its much steeper growth forecast of 2.25 million bpd.

Technical Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

• MA 10 : 81.5247 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 80.8005 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 80.3363 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

• MA 10 : 81.0777 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 80.9204 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 78.9141 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 57.6771 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 76.6559 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance And Support Levels :

• R1 : 83.3603 R2 : 85.5650
• S1 : 76.2230 S2 : 74.0183

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 81.09 | Take Profit: 83.43 | Stop Loss: 79.91

Natural Gas

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[Tushar_CSFX72]

Daily Commodity Analysis – Energy sinks, gold struggles, China waits.

Introduction

Oil prices drop as concerns over sticky US inflation heighten demand worries. Reports of higher producer prices in the US, the largest oil consumer, raise concerns about limited fuel consumption growth amid inflation and higher interest rates. Meanwhile, US natural gas prices hit a three-decade low due to the warmest winter on record, impacting demand. Gold prices rise but remain range-bound amid fears of prolonged US rate hikes. Copper prices slip after a strong prior week, with attention on China's economic cues for the industrial metal.

Markets In Focus Today – Brent Crude Oil

Oil Drops As Sticky US Inflation Heightens Demand Concerns.

Oil prices fell as investor attention returned to the demand outlook after reports of higher producer prices in the U.S., the world's biggest oil user, stoked worries that sticky inflation and higher interest rates would limit fuel consumption growth. Both Brent and WTI contracts had settled higher on Friday, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East offset slowing demand forecasts from the International Energy Agency. Markets are also yet to see the direction of demand from China after it returns from a week-long Lunar New Year holiday, while Presidents' Day in the United States is set to keep trade relatively muted.

Technical Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

• MA 10 : 81.8966 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 81.0715 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 80.4680 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

• MA 10 : 81.6525 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 81.1121 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 79.1014 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 58.8856 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 88.5776 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance And Support Levels :

• R1 : 83.3603 R2 : 85.5650
• S1 : 76.2230 S2 : 74.0183

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 81.67 | Take Profit: 83.49 | Stop Loss: 80.73

NATURAL GAS

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[Tushar_CSFX72]

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil is up gold is over $2,020, and silver is steady.

Introduction

WTI crude oil rises to approximately $78.30 amidst Houthi Group strikes on Red Sea shipping vessels, elevating concerns about Middle East supply disruption. Meanwhile, Natural Gas faces a three-year low due to soft European demand. Gold gains momentum near $2,020 amid escalating Middle East tensions and economic uncertainties, with FOMC Minutes in focus. Silver consolidates above $22.45, showing a potential mean reversion towards $23.90 and $25.00.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL

WTI Moves Higher To Around $78.30 As The Houthi Group Strikes On Shipping Vessels In The Red Sea.

WTI price edges higher on escalated threat over supply disruption from the Middle East. Iran-led Houthis targeted Belize-flagged, British-registered cargo vessel Rubymar. European Union has deployed warships and early warning systems to safeguard shipping lanes in the Red Sea. Saudi Aramco is considering issuing a bond of up to maturity of 50 years in 2024. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price retraces its recent losses registered on Monday. WTI price trades higher around $78.30 per barrel during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The escalated threat of the oil supply disruption from the Middle East is supporting the prices of Crude oil.

Technical Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

• MA 10 : 77.4693 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 76.4050 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 75.6216 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

• MA 10 : 77.3102 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 76.3290 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 74.0781 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 59.0690 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 92.0512 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels :

• R1 : 78.6054 R2 : 80.9659
• S1 : 70.9639 S2 : 68.6034

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 77.00 | Take Profit: 79.60 | Stop Loss: 75.50

NATURAL GAS

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[Tushar_CSFX72]

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold, oil surge, gas defies.

Introduction

Gold consolidates near a two-month high, hovering around $2,088-2,089, as it takes a breather after last week's robust surge. The US Dollar weakened further due to disappointing ISM survey results and less hawkish Fed comments, boosting gold's appeal. Meanwhile, copper prices dip ahead of crucial cues from China's National People's Congress. WTI oil extends gains to nearly $79.50, supported by OPEC+ decisions, while U.S. natural gas futures defy bearish fundamentals with technical resilience amid a surprising storage withdrawal.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold Price Consolidates Near Two-Month Peak, Bullish Potential Seems Intact.

Gold price pauses after last week's strong positive move to a fresh YTD top. Slightly overbought RSI on the daily chart acts as a headwind for the metal. Traders also seem reluctant ahead of this week's key US data/event risks. Gold price (XAU/USD) is seen oscillating in a narrow range during the Asian session on Monday and consolidating last week's strong gains to the $2,088-2,089 region, or its highest level since December 28. The US Dollar (USD) continues to be undermined by the disappointing release of the US ISM survey on Friday, which showed that manufacturing sector activity contracted more than anticipated in February. Adding to this, the less hawkish remarks by several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials reinforced bets that the US central bank will start cutting interest rates at the June policy meeting. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal.

Technical Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

• MA 10 : 2047.1993 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 2037.2429 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 2028.3821 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

• MA 10 : 2041.3207 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 2029.0574 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 2034.7265 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 69.9327 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 92.7922 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance And Support Levels :

• R1 : 2062.3465 R2 : 2081.5168
• S1 : 2000.2868 S2 : 1981.1165

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2070.07 | Take Profit: 2087.12 | Stop Loss: 2059.54

COPPER

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[Tushar_CSFX72]

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil dives, gas surges, gold holds.

Introduction

WTI oil prices decline to around $77.70, marking a third consecutive session of losses amid rising concerns over demand, fueled by disappointing US factory data and unexpected increases in crude oil stock. Meanwhile, U.S. natural gas futures experience volatility, settling higher as participants weigh lower production against bearish weather forecasts. Gold prices trade slightly lower, approaching the all-time peak, as traders anticipate Fed Chair Powell's statement and scrutinize geopolitical risks. Silver rebounds near the year-to-date peak, hovering around $24.00, supported by a positive technical setup and bullish prospects.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL

WTI Extends Its Losses To Near $77.70 As Demand Concerns Rise After US Factory Data.

WTI price continues to lose ground on concerns over oil demand.US Factory Orders (MoM) dropped by 3.6% in January, against the expected decline of 2.9%.US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock reported 0.423 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 2.6 million barrels. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price extends its losses for the third successive session, trading lower near $77.70 per barrel on Wednesday. Concerns about demand weigh on Crude oil prices following recent data indicating slowing economic activity in the United States, the world's largest oil consumer. However, the weaker US Dollar (USD) may provide some support to oil prices by increasing demand from buyers using other currencies. The increased apprehension regarding oil demand has tempered the impact of efforts by OPEC+ countries, Russia included, to enact voluntary oil output cuts.

Technical Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

• MA 10 : 78.3378 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 77.6871 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 76.5517 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

• MA 10 : 78.2870 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 77.9429 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 75.3427 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 55.9934 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 11.94 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance And Support Levels :

• R1 : 79.6511 R2 : 81.6205
• S1 : 73.2755 S2 : 71.3061

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 78.03 | Take Profit : 75.88 | Stop Loss : 79.75

NATURAL GAS

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[skrimon]

Daily Commodity Analysis – oil, gas plunge, gold, copper struggle.

Introduction

Oil prices declined on Monday as global economic concerns weighed on the demand outlook, overshadowing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. U.S. crude futures slipped to $73.13 a barrel, reflecting prevailing market sentiment. Meanwhile, natural gas prices plummet 24% amid warmer weather forecasts. Gold faces pressure from expectations of prolonged higher interest rates, while copper edges lower due to the weak economic outlook in China, indicated by underwhelming GDP figures and limited policy support from the People's Bank of China.

Markets In Focus Today – BRENT CRUDE OIL

Oil Down As Economic Headwinds Weigh On Demand Outlook.

Oil prices lost more ground on Monday as economic headwinds pressured the global oil demand outlook and offset geopolitical concerns in the Middle East and an attack on a Russian fuel export terminal over the weekend. For February delivery, the front-month U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 28 cents to $73.13 a barrel with the contract set to expire later on Monday. The more active March WTI contract was $73.04 a barrel, down 21 cents. This morning's subdued re-open speaks volumes about current sentiment in the crude oil market despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East.

Technical Overview With Chart :

View attachment 11148

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

• MA 10 : 78.16 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 78.11 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 79.44 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

• MA 10 : 78.05 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 78.08 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 78.64 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 48.94 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 63.41 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels :

• R1 : 80.60 R2 : 82.82
• S1 : 73.40 S2 : 71.18

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 77.32 | Take Profit: 74.65 | Stop Loss: 79.29

NATURAL GAS

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Oil and gas prices declined due to economic concerns. Gold and copper struggled amid higher interest rate expectations and weak economic outlook in China.

 

[borzy]

Daily Commodity Analysis – oil, gas plunge, gold, copper struggle.

Introduction

Oil prices declined on Monday as global economic concerns weighed on the demand outlook, overshadowing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. U.S. crude futures slipped to $73.13 a barrel, reflecting prevailing market sentiment. Meanwhile, natural gas prices plummet 24% amid warmer weather forecasts. Gold faces pressure from expectations of prolonged higher interest rates, while copper edges lower due to the weak economic outlook in China, indicated by underwhelming GDP figures and limited policy support from the People's Bank of China.

Markets In Focus Today – BRENT CRUDE OIL

Oil Down As Economic Headwinds Weigh On Demand Outlook.

Oil prices lost more ground on Monday as economic headwinds pressured the global oil demand outlook and offset geopolitical concerns in the Middle East and an attack on a Russian fuel export terminal over the weekend. For February delivery, the front-month U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 28 cents to $73.13 a barrel with the contract set to expire later on Monday. The more active March WTI contract was $73.04 a barrel, down 21 cents. This morning's subdued re-open speaks volumes about current sentiment in the crude oil market despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East.

Technical Overview With Chart :

View attachment 11148

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

• MA 10 : 78.16 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 78.11 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 79.44 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

• MA 10 : 78.05 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 78.08 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 78.64 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 48.94 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 63.41 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels :

• R1 : 80.60 R2 : 82.82
• S1 : 73.40 S2 : 71.18

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 77.32 | Take Profit: 74.65 | Stop Loss: 79.29

NATURAL GAS

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Commodity technical analysis involves studying price charts, patterns, and indicators specific to commodity markets to forecast future price movements. Traders use tools like trendlines, support and resistance levels, moving averages, and momentum oscillators to identify potential entry and exit points for trading commodities. Additionally, understanding supply and demand dynamics, seasonal patterns, and geopolitical factors affecting commodity markets can complement technical analysis for more informed trading decisions.