Currency Pairs Market Analysis

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GBPUSD - Under the pressure of the domestic political crisis in the UK​

This week can be seen as the official start of a new race for prime minister after incumbent and Conservative Party chief Liz Truss announced her resignation amid widespread criticism of her proposed tax reform. Currently, only one real favorite is known – the former finance minister Rishi Sunak, supported by most current officials (178 out of 357 deputies). In turn, former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who announced his readiness to compete for the post on Friday, has already fallen out of the race, having failed to enlist the support of at least 100 party members and gained only 59 votes. The electoral process must be completed by October 28. Today will be presented data on business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors, from which analysts expect a continued decline from 48.4 points to 48 points and from 50 points to 49.6 points, respectively.

The trading instrument moves within the long-term downward channel toward the resistance line.

Resistance levels: 1.148, 1.18 | Support levels: 1.1178, 1.0925​

 

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NZDUSD takes advantage of the American dollar weakness​

According to the report on foreign trade, exports to New Zealand in September adjusted by 1.6B dollars to 6.0B dollars, while imports – by 1.1B dollars and amounted to 7.6B dollars. Thus, the trade deficit consolidates around 1.6B dollars, down from 2.6B dollars last month. The growth leaders in the export category were livestock products, having increased by 71.0% compared to August, and in the import category – oil and oil products, having added 111.0% over the month. New Zealand is celebrating Labor Day today, and the stock exchanges are closed, as evidenced by low trading volumes, and the dynamics can only change after the start of the American session.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downtrend, slightly moving away from the support line.

Resistance levels: 0.5810, 0.5960 | Support levels: 0.5670, 0.5535​

 

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GBPUSD Technical Analysis​

GBPUSD pair hovers around 1.1340 level since morning and keeps its stability below it until now, noticing that the price begins to provide negative trades motivated by stochastic negativity, waiting for more decline for the rest of the day as long as the mentioned level remains intact, reminding you that we are waiting to visit 1.1145 as a first target.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.1200 support and 1.1380 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bearish.​

 

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USDJPY Technical Analysis​

The USDJPY pair succeeded to achieve our waited target at 151.3 and approached 152 barriers, but it declined sharply to achieve bearish correction that stopped at 145.45, to rebound bullishly and start covering the losses that it suffered in the previous sessions, at it returns to the main bullish channel to support the continuation of the overall positive scenario.

Therefore, we expect to witness positive trades in the upcoming sessions supported by the positive signal provided by stochastic now, noting that breaking 148.10 followed by 147.15 levels will stop the expected rise and press on the price to achieve additional bearish correction.

The expected trading range for today is between 148 support and 150 resistances. The expected trend for today: Bullish.​

 

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EURUSD - A fall is possible.​

On the daily chart, the fifth downward wave of the higher level (5) of А forms, within which the wave 5 of (5) forms. Now, the fifth wave of the lower level v of 5 of (5) is developing, within which the wave (i) of v of 5 has formed and a local correction is ending as the wave (ii) of v of 5.

If the assumption is correct, the EURUSD pair will fall to the area of 0.947 – 0.93. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9997.

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USDJPY within tight track​

The USDJPY pair didn’t show any strong move since yesterday, to fluctuate within tight track, settling above the bullish channel’s support line, thus, no change to the bullish trend scenario that depends on the price stability above 148.5, waiting to get positive motive that assists to push the price to head towards our positive targets that start at 150 and extend to 152.

The expected trading range for today is between 148.2 support and 149.9 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bullish.​

 

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USDCAD Tests the Support​

The USDCAD pair shows negative trades to test the key support 1.3680, as it consolidates above it until now, to keep the bullish trend scenario active for the upcoming period, waiting to head towards 1.3830 initially. Breaching 1.3740 will ease the mission of achieving the expected rise, noting that breaking 1.3680 will stop the positive scenario and put the price under additional negative pressure on the intraday basis.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.3640 support and 1.3790 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bullish.​

 

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AUDUSD Hits the First Target​

The AUDUSD pair managed to touch our first target at 0.6270 and bounced bullishly from there, affected by stochastic positivity, waiting to resume the main bearish wave that its next main target at 0.6170. Holding below 0.6397 represents major condition to continue the expected decline, as breaching it will lead the price to achieve additional bullish correction that its next target might reach 0.6540.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6250 support and 0.6380 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bearish.​

 

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USDCAD - The pair is in a correction and may grow.​

On the daily chart, the upward fifth wave of the higher level 5 develops, within which the wave (1) of 5 formed, the correctional wave (2) of 5 ended, and the wave (3) of 5 forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level 3 of (3) has formed, and a local correction is developing as the fourth wave 4 of (3).

If the assumption is correct, the USDCAD pair will grow to the area of 1.43 – 1.45. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.35.

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USDCHF - Growth is possible.​

On the daily chart, the first upward wave of the higher level (1) of 3 develops, within which the wave 5 of (1) forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 5 is developing, within which a local correction is developing as the wave (iv) of iii.

If the assumption is correct, the USDCHF pair will grow to the area of 1.02 – 1.03. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9908.

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USDCAD - Bank of Canada decides to keep the rate hike pace​

Yesterday, the regulator decided to raise the interest rate by 50.0 basis points, not by 75 points, as most experts predicted, bringing it to 3.75% from 3.25% earlier. In an accompanying statement, officials noted that they expect the country's gross domestic product (GDP) to seriously slowdown from 3.25% to less than 1.00% by early 2023 due to inflation, which, although it fell from 8.1% in the last quarter to 6.9% the basis of this weakening was fuel prices, which fell on the world market. Core inflation, a more accurate indicator of consumer prices, has not eased, and the Bank of Canada expects negative dynamics only in the second half of 2023.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is trying to consolidate in a downward corrective trend.

Resistance levels: 1.3610, 1.387 | Support levels: 1.3500, 1.325​

 

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AUDUSD - The pair is in a correction, a fall is possible.​

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) developed, and a downward correction forms as the second wave (2), within which the wave C of (2) forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of C is forming, the wave (iii) of iii has formed, and a local correction is ending as the wave (iv) of iii.

If the assumption is correct, the AUDUSD pair will fall to the area of 0.6091 – 0.59. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6682.

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NZDUSD - The pair may grow.​

On the daily chart, the upward wave of the higher level (А) formed, and a downward correction ended as the wave (B), within which the wave C of (B) formed. Now, the development of the wave (C) has started, and the entry first wave of the lower level i of 1 of (C) has formed.

If the assumption is correct, the NZDUSD pair will grow to the area of 0.6166 – 0.6465. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.5520.

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EURUSD Under the Negative Pressure​

The EURUSD pair ended yesterday below 1.0000 level, to fall under potential negative pressure in the upcoming sessions, but we notice that stochastic shows clear positive signals that pushes the price to start positively today, to face contradiction between the technical factors that makes us prefer to stay aside until the price confirms its situation according to the mentioned level.

Note that consolidating below it will press on the price to achieve new declines and head towards 0.9890 followed by 0.9850 levels, while breaching it will lead the price to resume the correctional bullish wave that its next targets located at 1.0150 followed by 1.0285.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.9900 support and 1.0080 resistance. The expected trend for today: Neutral.​

 

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NZDUSD Breaches the Resistance​

The NZDUSD pair rallies upwards now to breach 0.5835 level and attempts to hold above it, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the correctional bullish trend, opening the way to head towards 0.5910 as a next main target. The EMA50 continues to support the suggested bullish wave, noting that holding above 0.5835 represents initial condition to continue the expected rise.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.5810 support and 0.5930 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bullish.​

 

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AUDUSD Technical Analysis​

The AUDUSD pair trades with clear negativity now to test the key support 0.6397, which urges caution from the upcoming trading, as the price needs to hold above this level to keep the bullish trend active for the upcoming period, as breaking it will push the price to stop the correctional bullish scenario and return to the main bearish track again.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6370 support and 0.6480 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bullish.​

 

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USDJPY - The pair is in a correction; a fall is possible.​

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 ended, and a downward correction started as the fourth wave 4. Now, the wave of the lower level a of 4 is developing, within which a local correction is ending as the wave (iv) of a.

If the assumption is correct, the USDJPY pair will fall to the area of 140.13 – 136.82. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 151.76.

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CHFJPY holds above the support​

The CHFJPY pair formed mixed trades recently, affected by the strength of the additional barrier at 149.75, to decline towards 148.25 as appears on the chart, while the main stability within the bullish channel and the price consolidation above the major support line at 147.2 form the main factor to confirm the continuation of the positivity for the upcoming period.

Now, stochastic attempt to provide the positive momentum allows us to expect the beginning of forming bullish waves, to repeat the pressure on the mentioned barrier and assure the importance of achieving the beach to open the way to resume the rise and achieve new gains that start at 150.5.

The expected trading range for today is between 147.80 and 149.75, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.​

 

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GBPUSD Under the Negative Pressure​

GBPUSD pair ended yesterday with clear negativity, as it broke 1.1520 level and settled below it, to move below the main resistance line that appears on the chart, noticing that the price completed double top pattern that might force the price to achieve more decline. On the other hand, we notice that the EMA50 attempts to protect the price from suffering more losses, while stochastic provides clear positive signals that might push the price to start positively today.

Therefore, the contradiction between the technical factors makes us stay aside until the price confirms its situation according to 1.1520 level, as consolidating below it will press on the price to decline towards 1.1315 areas mainly, while breaching it will reactivate the positive scenario that its next target located at 1.1700. The expected trading range for today is between 1.1420 support and 1.1610 resistance.

The expected trend for today: Neutral.​

 

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AUDUSD Technical Analysis​

The AUDUSD pair attempts to return to the correctional bullish channel, waiting for more rise for the rest of the day, to keep the bullish trend scenario active as long as 0.6397 level remains intact, noting that our next main target is located at 0.6540.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6360 support and 0.6480 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.​