Currency Pairs Market Analysis

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EURJPY​

The EURJPY pair postponed the bullish rally, affected by 145.25 level forming an obstacle against the bullish attempts, to notice providing weak sideways fluctuation by consolidating near 144.80.

We remind you that the bullish scenario will remain valid as long as 144.00 forms additional support line, and stochastic attempt to crawl towards the overbought areas, allowing us to wait to surpass the current obstacle and manage to reach the next main target at 146.50.​

 

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USDCAD​

The USDCAD pair continues to decline to break 1.3600 level and settles below it, to head towards providing more negative trades on the intraday basis, targeting visiting 1.3500 level mainly.

Therefore, the bearish bias will be suggested for today, noting that the expected decline is temporary, waiting to resume the bullish wave that its targets begin by testing 1.3680 level. On the other hand, we should note that breaching 1.3630 will stop the suggested negative scenario for today and lead the price to recover again.​

 

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EURUSD - The price is in a correction and a fall is possible.​

If the assumption is correct, the EURUSD pair will fall to the area of 1.0500 – 1.0325. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.0695.

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AUDUSD​

The AUDUSD pair continues to crawl positively to trade near the key resistance 0.6780, noticing that stochastic lost its positive momentum to start providing negative signals now, waiting to motivate the price to rebound bearishly and resume the correctional bearish track, which targets 0.6665 as a next station.

The EMA50 continues to press negatively on the price to support the continuation of the expected bearish trend, being aware that breaching 0.6780 will complete forming positive pattern that has the ability to push the price to turn to rise and head to visit 0.6925 areas initially.​

 

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EURJPY​

The EURJPY pair failed to surpass 145.25 barrier, to force it to postpone the bullish attack and form correctional bearish rebound to touch the additional support at 144.

We expect to form mixed sideways trades between the mentioned levels, to recommend neutrality and monitoring the price behavior until surpassing one of these levels to manage to detect the next trend, noting that breaking the support will activate the correctional bearish track that might target 143.25 and 142.60 levels.​

 

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GBPJPY

The GBPJPY pair provided more negative closings below the key resistance 165.10, forming some negative waves to settle near 163.25, confirming its surrender to the previously suggested bearish bias domination.

Now, stochastic approach to 20 level allows us to keep the negative overview, to expect forming new negative waves and move towards the negative target at 162.25, while breaking to might extend losses towards 161.40 direct.​

 

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GBPCAD​

The GBPCAD pair confirmed its affection by the domination of the correctional bullish bias by moving away from 1.6060 support line and forming strong positive waves, to notice its consolidation near 1.6390 level, also, the moving average 55 fluctuation below the current price will increase the chances of resuming the correctional bullish trend, to assist to renew the pressure on 1.6510 barrier.

Note that succeeding to breach the targeted level will confirm moving to new bullish track to start recording additional gains that might extend towards 1.6625 followed by reaching 1.6750.​

 

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USDCAD​

The USDCAD pair fluctuates around 1.3600 level, noticing that the price continues to record lower highs, while stochastic shows new negative overlapping signal now.

Therefore, we believe that the chances valid to resume the expected bearish bias on the intraday basis, which its targets begin by breaking 1.3570 to confirm rallying towards 1.3500, reminding you that the continuation of the bearish wave depends on the price stability below 1.3630 and 1.3680 levels.​

 

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GBPUSD​

The tight range dominates the GBPUSD pair’s trades since yesterday, keeping its stability above the breached resistance of the correctional bearish channel, thus, no change to the expected bullish trend for the upcoming period, which its next target located at 1.2145.

Note that the continuation of the bullish wave depends on the price stability above 1.1990 and the most important above 1.1940.​

 

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Gold​

Gold price retested the breached neckline of the inverted head and shoulders’ pattern and keeps its stability above it, to start providing positive trades in attempt to move away from this level that represents key support at 1843.70, to keep the bullish trend scenario valid and active for the upcoming period, which targets testing 1878.80 mainly.

Stochastic shows clear positive signals now, while the EMA50 continues to provide the positive support to the price, to get positive motives that we are waiting to assist to push the price to achieve the waited rise. On the other hand, we should note that breaking 1843.70 followed by 1828.70 levels will stop the expected bullish trend and push the price to return to the correctional bearish track again.​

 

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EURGBP​

The EURGBP pair succeeded to renew the positive attempts by rallying above the additional support at 0.8795 recently, achieving big gains by moving towards the additional barrier 0.8925.

Now, the continuous positive momentum coming by the major indicators allows us to wait to confirm breaching the current barrier to open the way to target more positive stations, to expect moving towards 0.8955 soon, followed by attempting to touch the next main target at 0.9000.​

 

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USDCAD​

USDCAD is one of the pairs that will be on watch this afternoon. There is a number of events scheduled that could move the pair. ADP employment report for February at 1:15 pm GMT will be the first one of these and it will also be the final hint ahead of Friday's NFP report. ADP release will be followed by trade balance data for January from US and Canada at 1:15 pm GMT. However, the biggest USDCAD volatility today is expected around 3:00 pm GMT when Powell holds the second day of his semi-annual testimonies and Bank of Canada announces rate decision.

While speech from Powell and BoC rate decision are key events of the day, traders should keep in mind that there is also risk that they will turn out to be non-events. Powell will deliver the same speech as he did yesterday and the only thing that may differ are questions from lawmakers. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada is expected to live up to its pledge of pausing rate hike cycle and leave rate unchanged at a meeting today.

Taking a look at USDCAD chart at H4 interval, we can see that the pair has been trading in an upward channel recently. The pair reached the highest level since early-November 2022 but the upward move slowed today as investors seem to be in wait-and-see mode ahead of USDCAD volatility events later in the day. As Powell is unlikely to make any major statements we have not heard during the first day of testimonies, surprise from Bank of Canada could be a massive volatility trigger. However, BoC has been quite clear about a plan to pause rate hike and failing to do so could have a negative impact on its credibility. Not to mention that situation in the Canadian economy did not change too much from the previous meeting.​

 

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AUDUSD​

The AUDUSD pair broke 0.6665 level strongly to rally bearishly and approach the second waited target at 0.6550, moving within the bearish channel that supports the chances of surpassing the mentioned level and open the way to achieve more bearish correction, to head towards 0.6400 areas as a next main station.

The EMA50 continues to support the suggested bearish wave, waiting to get negative momentum that assists to achieve the required break and head towards the expected target. On the other hand, we should note that breaching 0.6665 will stop the expected decline and lead the price to start recovery attempts that target testing 0.6780 areas initially.​

 

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USDCAD - Growth is possible

If the assumption is correct, the USDCAD pair will grow to the area of 1.3850 – 1.3977. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.3554.

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USDCHF -Growth is possible.​

If the assumption is correct, the USDCHF pair will grow to the area of 0.9600 – 0.9819. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9287.

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EURUSD​

The EURUSD pair didn’t show any strong move yesterday, to settle near 1.0515, noticing that stochastic begins to lose the positive momentum gradually, while the EMA50 forms negative pressure against the price.

Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend for the upcoming period, and the targets begin by breaking the mentioned level to confirm heading towards 1.0440 as a next negative station, noting that breaching 1.0635 will stop the expected decline and lead the price to turn to rise.​

 

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GBPUSD​

The GBPUSD pair fluctuates around 1.0840 level since yesterday, and continues to move within the correctional bearish channel, waiting to resume the bearish bias that its next main target located at 1.1625, supported by stochastic loss to the positive momentum clearly.

By taking a deeper look at the chart, we find that the price completed forming double top pattern that hast negative targets that surpass the above mentioned level to reach 1.1370 areas, to suggest the domination of the bearish trend on the longer term basis. Therefore, we are waiting for more decline in the upcoming sessions, supported by the negative pressure formed by the EMA50, reminding you that it is important to hold below 1.1940 to achieve the waited targets.

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EURJPY​

The EURJPY pair didn’t succeed to exit the sideways range until this moment, to keep fluctuating between 145.5 resistance and 144 support.

The above chart shows that stochastic begins to provide the negative momentum, to increase the chances of forming new negative waves, and expect to crawl below the current support to reach many negative stations that might start at 143.25 followed by 142.2, to press on the moving average 55.​

 

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NATGAS​

The US Energy Information Administration reported today that domestic supplies of natural gas decreased by-84 billion cubic feet for the week ended February 24 from -81 bcf in the previous week, while analysts’ expected drop of -80 billion cubic feet.

Still, it is much less than a decrease of 126 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average decline of 101 bcf as mild weather kept heating demand for the fuel low. Last week's decrease cut stockpiles to 2.030 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 493 bcf higher than last year at this time and 359 bcf above the five-year average of 1.671 tcf.​

 

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EURUSD​

The EURUSD pair begins today with additional positivity to surpass 1.0645 level and settles above it, which pushes the price to achieve more intraday gains, targeting testing 1.0745 as a next station, noting that breaching this level will push the price to continue rising and head towards 1.0800 followed by 1.0925 levels as next main targets.

Moving above the EMA50 supports the continuation of the expected bullish trend, while stochastic might cause some temporary sideways fluctuation before resuming the bullish bias. On the other hand, we should note that breaking 1.0645 and holding below it will stop the suggested bullish wave and press on the price to decline again.​