Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews

- Attackers demanded 5 BTC (about $275,000), threatening to detonate bombs in two business centers of St. Petersburg, the second largest city in Russia. According to local media reports, the Fort Tower and Renaissance Park business centers received ransom threats by e-mail. However, no explosive devices were found after people were evacuated and buildings were inspected. The police are looking for extortionists.

- Investor and TV star Kevin O'Leary said in a comment to CNBC that he would only buy eco-friendly digital gold. According to him, within a year or two, the crypto community will divide bitcoin into two types: "clean", that is, mined using renewable energy, and "dirty" or "bloody" - mined using "dirty energy."
O'Leary added that environmental concerns were coming to the fore with regard to digital gold. “I don’t buy coins if I don’t know where and when they were mined. Not from China. No “bloody” coins,” the investor said. However, he did not specify where he buys "clean" bitcoin and how he determines its origin.
According to analysts' calculations, the annual emissions into the atmosphere from cryptocurrency mining are about 60 million tons of carbon dioxide. In other words, $1 billion worth of bitcoin mining is equivalent to annual carbon emissions from 1.2 million cars.

- According to CoinDesk, the Sacramento Kings NBA basketball club will provide an opportunity for the team and support staff to get paid in the first cryptocurrency. This was stated by its owner. The club plans to give official confirmation this week. The publication believes that such a move will secure the Kings a status as the most crypto-friendly professional sports team in the United States.

- Experts of the JPMorgan bank called the rate of $130,000 as the long-term goal for the first cryptocurrency, having lowered the bar from $146,000 due to the fall in gold quotes, Business Insider reports.
The bank's analysts made such a forecast based on the calculation of the theoretical capitalization of the first cryptocurrency in the event of an inflow of funds from the gold market, for which the cryptocurrency is becoming a digital alternative. According to JPMorgan, the precious metal has outflowed $20 billion since mid-October, while companies have poured $7 billion in bitcoin.
The long-term target for the cryptocurrency rate is based on the idea that its volatility and the volatility of gold will converge. But the bank recalled that this is a long-term process: the realized three-month asset volatility is 86% and 16%, respectively so far.

- The famous American rapper Snoop Dogg said that he is a big bitcoin supporter. “I believe in bitcoin and the technology that makes global interaction possible,” he said.
The rapper has already become familiar with the volatility of the crypto market and understands that the fall in price does not reflect the initial value of the asset. Price is not the main determinant of the reliability of the leading cryptocurrency for him. “I don't follow the coin rate too much, because I've been on the market for a long time and got used to rate jumps. I am sure that bitcoin is for a long time, ”says Snoop Dogg. “The future is happening right before our eyes. I don't think bitcoin is just a consequence of the pandemic. It only adds fuel to the fire. "

- Many "bitcoin bulls" in the expert environment say that the largest digital currency will be able to bypass gold in terms of capitalization in the future. In this case, the value of all bitcoins should grow 10 times and exceed the $11 trillion mark. The authors of the study conducted by Ark Invest, stress that this could happen over the next few years. "We believe that bitcoin is better than gold and it's safe to say that it will capture gold market share or even more."
Commenting on a recent speech by the US Treasury Secretary in which she criticized bitcoin, Ark Invest experts say Janet Yellen used outdated arguments when she said that criminals were using cryptocurrency for money laundering.

- Billionaire and founder of the crypto bank Galaxy Digital Mike Novogratz agrees with the forecast of Ark Invest. He stated In a comment for CNBC that he was shocked by the pace of digital asset adoption. The investor also admitted his previous forecast of the price of the first cryptocurrency of $60,000 too conservative. “Bitcoin is on the inevitable path to reaching and exceeding the capitalization of gold,” said Novogratz.
According to CompaniesMarketCap, the total market value of gold at the time of writing is $10.8 trillion. According to CoinGecko, the capitalization of the first cryptocurrency is around $1.1 trillion.

- Domain name registrar GoDaddy put up Roger Ver's Bitcoin.com domain for sale for $100 million earlier this week. Upon discovering the ad, the owner said it was “100% fake” and contacted GoDaddy with a demand to remove the domain from sale. And that was done. At the same time, there were no official comments and explanations from GoDaddy representatives.

- Rich Dad Poor Dad author, investor and entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki has suggested in a recent interview that bitcoin could reach a value of $1.2 million over the next five years. Kiyosaki first bought the cryptocurrency last year when it was trading at $9,000 after the pandemic actually shackled the global economy. “I wish I could buy it for 10 cents, like many people did, but I still look like a genius because today it costs about $55,000. I think that in another five years it will grow to $1.2 million,” the entrepreneur announced.
At the same time, even though Kiyosaki has turned into a defender of bitcoin, he still prefers gold and silver for main investments, explaining this by the fact that the cryptocurrency is outside the regulatory field.

- Large investment bank Morgan Stanley has filed an application with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), according to which 12 funds of the bank will be able to invest in BTC. Each of the funds indicated in the application will be able to place up to 25% of the capital in the first cryptocurrency. “Certain funds can indirectly invest in bitcoin through fiat-settled bitcoin futures or through investments in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). The investments will go through a subsidiary registered in the Cayman Islands. At the same time, the fund may not have investments in bitcoin at a certain point,” the application says.

- Billionaire Mark Cuban revealed that he has concentrated 60% of his cryptocurrency investment portfolio in bitcoin, 30% in Ethereum, and 10% in other digital assets. Cuban called bitcoin the best alternative to gold, and Ethereum - the most similar to a real currency. “I wish I had bought Ethereum earlier. I started doing this only four years ago,” added Cuban, and compared the growth of Ethereum to the development of the Internet in the late 90s.
According to him, it is this altcoin that matches his ideas about the correct form of money due to its decentralized economy based on smart contracts.


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[Jason]

CryptoNews

- Many experts agree that the value of bitcoin may reach $30,000 in the very near future. According to experts, the reason for this is the increased activity of "whales", who continue to make impressive investments in the cryptocurrency industry.
Experts from the analytical company CryptoQuant say that large investors are trying to keep funds in hardware wallets or distribute them between different platforms. The head of CryptoQuant, Ki-Young Joo, noted that this practice is being applied in the stock markets in anticipation of a major breakthrough. “I think that after the spurt [up to $ 30,000] there will be a pullback, the scale of which is very difficult to predict,” says Ki-Young Joo.
According to Vijay Ayyar, one of the top managers of the Luno crypto exchange, such a correction will be no more than 15%, after which bitcoin will face another growth.

- Investor Dennis Hartman, also known as the "king of assets", said in an interview with Bloomberg that bitcoin could become the so-called "millennial gold." According to the specialist, he does not support cryptocurrency assets, however, he considers them to be the main prospect for the future.
According to the financier, central banks around the world will increase their control over digital currencies. Therefore, even if bitcoin remains a fully decentralized unit, it will only be allowed to circulate locally when centralized.
Also, according to Hartmann, despite the prospects for the main cryptocurrency, it may even collapse to zero. This will happen against the background of the introduction of industry regulation in the world community. Due to a number of restrictions, investors will simply stop investing in bitcoin, which will first affect its capitalization, and later on the value.

- The founder of the crypto bank Galaxy Digital, Mike Novogratz, noted on CNBC the strong position of bitcoin in the face of pressure from the current Trump team, which has not been able to stop the record growth of the main cryptocurrency.
In addition, the head of Galaxy Digital expressed the hope that financial regulators under the leadership of President-elect Joe Biden will take a more loyal stance towards cryptocurrencies. “I hope that after the inauguration [January 20, 2021] we will get more progressive regulators. I will be happy to wait for the new administration and get a regulatory framework that supports rather than fights cryptocurrencies,” said Novogratz.

- The most secure strategy for investing in cryptocurrencies in 2021 will be the purchase and storage of a small portfolio of bitcoins and etheriums. This was stated by the head of the digital assets department of the Swiss online bank Swissquote Chris Thomas. In his opinion, these coins have long-term development potential.
In addition, a new form of digital money will appear in 2021, CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency). According to the expert, one of the first countries to introduce such a state digital currency will be China. In Europe, Sweden can become such a country due to the high acceptance rate of such assets.

- Bitcoin miners' income has increased by 185% since the May halving. And now, according to the estimates of the analytical service Glassnode, the total earnings of all miners in the world is about $1 million per hour.
The experts noted that the last time miners earned so much from mining bitcoin was in July 2019. Then the coin traded in the range from $9k to $11k. But at that point, the BTC mining award was twice the current one.

Almost 20% of Australians own digital currencies at the moment, according to a survey conducted by the Independent Reserve crypto exchange. At the same time, more than 90% of respondents said that they knew about the existence of bitcoin and other virtual coins. Bitcoin turned out to be much more popular than any of the altcoins, among which respondents noted ETH, EOS, XRP and LTС.
As in the past year, the largest share of cryptocurrency holders is among people aged 25 to 34.

- Dan Morehead, CEO of Pantera Capital investment company, speaking on CNBC, called the limited supply of bitcoin as a key driver of growth in the value of this cryptocurrency. Currently, giants like PayPal and Grayscale are buying more BTC than bitcoin miners can mine. “When we see that there are large institutional investors, each of whom buys more than 100% of the current issue of such assets, it pushes the price up,” explained Dan Morehead.
The market is nine weeks away from seeing bitcoin at $115,000, according to an estimate in December investment analytics from Pantera Capital.

- The world's largest crypto fund Grayscale published a report last Friday, which shows that the total amount of funds in the cryptocurrency under its control has reached $16.3 billion.
Analyst Kevin Rooke noted that this giant continued to buy up bitcoins even amid the recent consolidation of the crypto market. This clearly indicates that Grayscale is set for a long-term growth in the value of the largest digital currency.
At the moment, Bitcoin and Ethereum Grayscale trusts have accumulated digital assets of $14.075 billion and $1.808 billion, respectively.

- Miami Mayor Francis Suarez has attracted the attention of the community with his stance towards the first cryptocurrency. He called bitcoin the most stable investment in the outgoing, “volatile year” 2020. According to Suarez, Miami and South Florida should be “at the forefront of legislation” promoting digital assets and supported by innovation.
In his address, Suarez has also noted Morgan Creek Digital co-founder Anthony Pompliano saying Miami “is on track to become a bitcoin city.”

- Amsterdam Stock Exchange trader Michael van de Poppe believes that bitcoin will rise from its current level to at least $40,000. And although the expert does not rule out the likelihood of downward corrections, he is confident that "the bull market for bitcoin will continue for a long time."
In addition, Michael van de Poppe is convinced that a strong rally will be observed in the altcoin market sooner or later, in particular on Ethereum. According to the expert, the rise in prices in the altcoin market will begin after the first quarter of next year.

- Ethereum capitalization has exceeded $79 billion. The CEO of the crypto exchange Binance Changpeng Zhao drew attention to the fact that ETH had already surpassed such auto giants as General Motors ($59.5 billion), BMW ($47.1 billion) and Ferrari ($36.2 billion) in terms of capitalization.
In 2021, capital inflows into ETH will be even more significant, according to Messari analyst Ryan Watkins. Some investors are already concentrating exclusively on Ethereum. And the key event for this altcoin will be the launch of Ethereum futures on the Chicago Exchange (CME).


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will any of this affect EUR/USD? where are we headed with this?

 

[Stan NordFX]

Super Lottery: NordFX Gives Away 100,000 USD to Traders​

The $100,000 Super Lottery was launched by the brokerage company NordFX among its clients on April 1. The name speaks for itself: 100 cash prizes of $500, $1,000, $2,500 and a super prize of $ 20,000 will be drawn by the year end.

It is quite easy to take part in the lottery and get a chance to win one or even several of these prizes. It is enough to have a Pro account in NordFX (and for those who do not have it - register and open a new one), top it up with $200 and... just trade.

Having made a trading turnover of only 2 lots in Forex currency pairs or gold (or 4 lots in silver), the trader will automatically receive a virtual lottery ticket. The number of lottery tickets for one participant is not limited. The more deposits and the greater the turnover, the more lottery tickets the participant will have, and the greater their chances of becoming a winner of the prize money.

Unlike trader contests, there is no need for a lottery participant to show exceptional trading results. In this case, both experienced professionals and beginners have equal chances of winning. And they can either use the received prize money in further trading, or take it out without any restrictions.

70 prizes of $500 each, 20 prizes of $1,000 each, 10 prizes of $2,500 and 1 super prize of $20,000 will be drawn. The draws will be held on July 1, October 1, 2021 and January 3, 2022. For more details, visit the NordFX website.

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

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[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 12 - 16, 2021​

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The U.S. economy continues to recover vigorously. The S&P500 index renews another high, the value of American Treasuries is growing and, accordingly, their yield is falling. And the dollar is falling along with it.
However, the market, for the most part, is reacting not to real numbers for the last week and a half, but to forecasts and promises. As already mentioned, the US economy is growing. But the head of the US Federal Reserve said that although the March statistics on the labor market is impressive, it is not enough to even start discussions on the curtailment of fiscal stimulus programs. According to Jerome Powell, this requires several more months of such positive results.
His colleagues agree with him. So, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Mary Daly noted that the US economy is still very far from the recovery, and the Fed will wait until this happens. And the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard, said that one should not even think about changes in the US monetary policy until the end of the COVID-19 pandemic.
But as for the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, there are more and more vigorous statements of EU officials about the imminent termination of lockdowns and the unprecedented growth of the Eurozone economy. And in spite of the calls of German Chancellor Angela Merkel for tighter isolation, optimistic data on industrial production in this country are cited.
As a result of all these verbal battles, the scales tipped to the side of the euro. As predicted by most experts, the EUR/USD pair went up, rising to the height of 1.1930 on Thursday, April 08. This was followed by a correction and a finish at 1.1900;

- GBP/USD. Problems after the UK's exit from the EU, an impressive trade deficit and the country's budget deficit continue to put pressure on the pound. And even the dollar, which has weakened against other currencies, does not allow the GBP/USD pair to return to growth. We see how the British currency, step by step, is losing ground starting from February 24. Last week the pair was able to grow only to 1.3920. This was followed by a reversal and, as predicted by graphical analysis, it dropped to the level of 1.3670. As for the final chord, it sounded at the height of 1.3710;

- USD/JPY. It has been repeatedly written that the rate of this pair is greatly influenced by the yield of US Treasuries. Fluctuations in the yield of these securities allowed the yen to straighten its shoulders a little and win back 165 points from the dollar in the first four days of the week, dropping to 109.00. However, then the strength of the bears dried up, and the pair ended the five-day period at the level of 109.65;

- cryptocurrencies. The overwhelming majority of analysts (70%) gave a negative forecast for the BTC/USD pair last week, expecting it to move towards $50,000. This is exactly what happened, and the fall of bitcoin on Wednesday to $55,540 made many talk about the beginning of new "crypto freezes". Fortunately for investors, the panic was premature and the pair returned to the $58,000 zone on Friday. However, the question of why the main cryptocurrency failed to gain a foothold above $60,000 remains open.
One of the versions is a drop in demand from large institutional investors. But, as is clear from the statistics of crypto exchanges, "whales" continue to withdraw cryptocurrency to cold wallets. And therefore, they expect its growth to continue.
The miners' actions are also indicative of their bullish sentiment. They switched to hoarding coins in April, creating a shortage in the market. The movement of cryptocurrency from miners to crypto exchanges has decreased by almost 40%: from 450 bitcoins per day in March to 275 in the first decade of April. Naturally, such a shortage of supply should push the price up. Suffice it to recall that the BTC/USD pair rose from $19,000 to $30,000 in a similar situation the previous time.
In the meantime, just as bitcoin cannot take the $60,000 height by storm, the total market capitalization cannot step over the $2.0 trillion bar either, once approaching it, once moving away. At the time of writing this review, on Friday April 09, it has once again come close to this important psychological level, reaching a volume of $1.990 billion. As for the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, it has changed only by 4 points during the week, having fallen from 74 to 70.
It should be noted that the share of bitcoin in the total crypto market capitalization is continuously decreasing: if it was 62% on March 14, then it was only 55% on April 09. This is undoubtedly due to the lack of positive price dynamics for BTC/USD. Speculators are switching to other instruments, which allow making serious profits at the moment. And here the ripple should be noted.
When the ripple fell to $0.170 at the very end of December 2020 due to the claims of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), many gave up on it. However, on April 7, at the high, the price of this altcoin reached $1.108, showing a 550% gain since the the year started. Its capitalization also grew during this time, rising from 1.40% to 2.42%. The reason for this rally, especially in the last week, was the news that ripple's lawyers have gained access to the SEC documents and are making serious progress in litigation with this powerful regulator.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. As is said in the first part of the review, the statements of the US Federal Reserve leaders, the growth of the stock market and the fall in the yield of US Treasury bonds are important factors. But they are limited in time. So is the falling dollar. And at some point, everything can turn 180 degrees. The higher the US stock indices soar - Nasdaq, Dow Jones, S&P500, the more frequent talk about “soap bubbles” that are about to burst. Investors borrowed a record $814 billion secured by their own portfolios by the end of February 2021. And this is 49% more than a year ago. A similar situation resulted in the collapse of the stock market and in the economic crisis in 2008.
But until this happens, the attractiveness of the dollar continues to decline, which plays into the hands of low-income currencies and, first of all, the euro. The dollar is not facilitated by the confrontation between Democrats and Republicans in the US Senate over the scale of further fiscal stimulus either.
Of course, a way out of this political stalemate will be found, and there will be more clarity about the results of vaccinations and the speed of recovery of the US and Eurozone economies. But according to forecasts of 65% of experts, the EUR/USD pair will continue its growth in the coming week. This scenario is supported by 75% of oscillators and 85% of trend indicators on H4. The advantage of the “greens” is much weaker on D1, here it is only 65% of technical indicators that point to the growth of the pair. At the same time, 15% of oscillators are painted neutral gray, and 20% already give signals about the pair being overbought.
As for the graphical analysis, it shows movement in the 1.1835-1.1950 trading range on H4, the range is, of course, wider on D1: first, the pair goes down to the lower border in the 1.1700 zone, and then rises to the 1.2000 height. It should be noted that in the transition from weekly to monthly forecast, 55% of analysts vote for the decline of the pair to the horizon of 1.1700.
As for the events of the coming week, we should pay attention to inflation indicators and data on the US consumer market (due out on April 13, 15 and 16), Eurozone (April 12) and Germany (April 15) . Also of interest is the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell on Wednesday April 14;

- GBP/USD. At the moment, the absolute advantage for this pair is on the side of the bears. 85% of oscillators and 100% trend indicators on H4 are painted red. On D1 it is 85% and 80%, respectively. 65% of analysts also vote for the further fall of the pair. The nearest support is 1.3670, the target is a transition to the zone 1.3575-1.3610. Graphical analysis on D1 also draws the continuation of the downward trend. However, according to its forecast, the pair may rise to the resistance level of 1.3900 before heading south.
Even though the sell-off of the pound continues, many analysts note that the long-term uptrend, which began on March 20, 2020, has not been affected. And the fall of the last 6 weeks can be considered as a correction, after which the British currency may continue its growth. The pound will regain its attractiveness, especially if large capital that left it due to Brexit begins to return to the country. The pound is also supported by the successes of the early stages of vaccination against COVID-19. In this case, according to 70% of experts, the GBP/USD pair has many chances to regain its lost positions and return first to the 1.4000 zone, and then retest the February 24 high at 1.4240 before the end of spring;

- USD/JPY. Back in early March, the volumes of purchases of futures contracts for the yen exceeded sales. But the fast pace of the US economic recovery has changed everything. According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the number of short contracts on Japanese currency began to grow since mid-March, reaching record values since January 2019.
At the moment, despite the confusion in the indicators' readings, the majority of experts (65%), supported by graphical analysis on H4, expect further weakening of the yen and the return of the USD/JPY pair, first to the level of 111.00, and then its rise another 100 points higher, to the level of 112.00.
The remaining 35% of analysts are looking south, expecting to see how the pair will test 108.40 support. Moreover, when moving to the monthly forecast, the number of bear supporters increases to 60%, and the target shifts to the zone 105.00-106.20.
As for the events of the coming week, one can note the speech of the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda on Wednesday April 14, from which the market will wait for signals regarding the monetary policy of the regulator for the near future. Recall that the Bank of Japan has not been able to decide how to respond to rising yields on US securities and what to do with its own. If the yield on 10-year US bonds and commodity prices continue to rise, and the regulator does not respond to this, it could hit the yen even harder. And it has already suffered quite tangible losses, having lost more about 700 points to the dollar over the past three months.

- cryptocurrencies. The news background of the past week was quite versatile. Thus, the investment bank Morgan Stanley has filed an application with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), according to which 12 funds of the bank will be able to invest in BTC. Each of the funds indicated in the application will be able to place up to 25% of the capital in the first cryptocurrency. And that's good for investors.
On the other hand, the billionaire and founder of PayPal, Peter Thiel, declared out of the sudden that bitcoin has become an instrument of China's policy and is increasingly hitting the dollar. That is why, according to Peter Thiel, the US government should attend to the regulation of this benchmark cryptocurrency. It should be noted that this businessman previously supported bitcoin, and now one needs to understand who or what made him change his mind. And if the wind blows from the White House, this is a very negative signal for the cryptocurrency market.
As for the forecasts, experts of another large world bank, JPMorgan, called the long-term target for the bitcoin rate of $130,000, having lowered the bar from $146,000 due to the fall in gold quotes. Analysts made such a forecast based on the calculation of the theoretical capitalization of the first cryptocurrency in case of an influx of funds from the market of precious metals.
In general, the topic of comparing bitcoin with gold, for which cryptocurrency is becoming a digital alternative, sounds more and more often. Many bitcoin bulls in the expert environment say that BTC will be able to bypass gold in terms of capitalization in the future. In this case, the value of all bitcoins should grow 10 times and exceed the $11 trillion mark. And according to analysts at Ark Invest, that could happen within the next few years. "We believe that bitcoin is better than gold and it's safe to say that it will capture a gold market share or even more."
Billionaire and founder of the crypto bank Galaxy Digital Mike Novogratz agrees with the forecast of Ark Invest. He stated In a comment for CNBC that he was shocked by the pace of digital asset adoption. The investor also admitted his previous forecast of the price of the first cryptocurrency of $60,000 too conservative. “Bitcoin is on the inevitable path to reaching and exceeding the capitalization of gold,” said Novogratz.
Quite an astronomical forecast was given by the author of the book “Rich Dad, Poor Dad”, investor and entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki. He suggested in a recent interview that the first cryptocurrency could reach a value of $1.2 million in the next five years. Kiyosaki first bought bitcoin last year after the pandemic effectively shackled the global economy. It was then trading at $9,000. “I wish I could buy it for 10 cents, like many people did, but I still look like a genius because today it costs about $55,000. I think that in another five years it will grow to $1.2 million,” the entrepreneur announced.
At the same time, even though Kiyosaki, opposite to Peter Thiel, has turned into a defender of bitcoin, he still prefers gold and silver for main investments, explaining this by the fact that the cryptocurrency is outside the regulatory field.
And finally, at the end of the review, another crypto life hack. This time, it's about how to make money without "mining", without buying or selling cryptocurrency. After all, it turns out that it is enough just to look into the future and register a promising Internet address in time in order to become a millionaire. So, domain name registrar GoDaddy put up Roger Ver's Bitcoin.com domain for sale for $100 million earlier last week. However, this time the deal fell through: upon discovering the ad, the owner declared that it was “100% fake" and demanded to remove the domain from sale. But this does not mean that you will not be able to earn a tidy sum at other addresses. After all, there are still so many promising cryptocurrencies in the world besides bitcoin.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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[Stan NordFX]

New Mobile App from NordFX​

The specialists of the NordFX brokerage company have developed a new convenient mobile app that allows you to conduct full-fledged trading in the financial markets without having to switch to other platforms.

The app supports 12 languages and contains all the functionality traders need, which they can use in just a few clicks. The trading platform integrates indicators and other tools for advanced technical analysis. In addition, the application includes an economic calendar, as well as options for opening and verifying an account, depositing and withdrawing funds.

The line of trading instruments includes 33 Forex currency pairs, gold, silver, Crude and Brent oil, as well as the main cryptocurrency pairs: Bitcoin (BTC/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD), Ripple (XRP/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD).

For all the inquiries, please contact Support [email protected]

You can download the NordFX mobile app from Google Play

as well as from the App Store


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews

- The new episode of the cult animated series "The Simpsons" broadcast on of April 11 predicted an increase in the value of the first cryptocurrency to infinity. This was noticed by Reddit users. A running line with quotes of financial assets appears on the TV screen in the 18th episode of season 32. The bitcoin exchange rate is marked with a green sign of infinity.
Recall that in February 2020, the creators of "The Simpsons" released an episode called Frinkcoin, dedicated to cryptocurrencies and how blockchain technology works. They also mentioned bitcoin in a joint episode with The Griffins and in the mobile game The Simpsons: Tapped Out.

- The emulator of a vintage computer Commodore-64 produced in 1982 was used to mine cryptocurrency. The developer Maciej Vitkoviak has created the C64 Bitcoin Miner software specifically for this PC. He demonstrated a 0.2 H/s hashrate on the VICE emulator. “It will take 337 years and 10 months for the C64 to mine a block,” the developer said.

- Ethereum may surpass Bitcoin in terms of profitability in 2021, and the price of the coin may rise to $10,000. Such a forecast was given by the famous crypto trader and host of the podcast The Wolf of All Streets Scott Melker.
He revealed In an interview with Cointelegraph that he has largely switched his strategy from the first cryptocurrency to this leading altcoin in recent months. “It reminds me of investing in the Internet in the early 1990s,” Melker said. “I don’t understand why this is crazy. In fact, this is just an increase of less than five times the current price. Bitcoin almost tripled last year."

- Analysts of the Kraken exchange admitted the possibility of growth of bitcoin to $90,000. This is stated in the company's latest monthly state-of-the-industry report. Experts noted that March was one of the most successful months for the largest cryptocurrencies in terms of capitalization.
Based on historical data, analysts allowed Bitcoin to rise by 50% in April. Considering that the month began at $59,000, the target of the movement could be the $90,000 mark. However, before the rally resumes, the first cryptocurrency can expect a correction of at least $10,000.
As for Ethereum, Kraken predicts it could rise to $15,000. Exchange analysts noted the important, in their opinion, support and resistance levels for this altcoin: $1,462 and $2,695. Plotting historical patterns of ETH price movement on logarithmic curves, they concluded that the peak of the bullish cycle is still far away. The experts are confident that the price of Ethereum could rise by 700% from the levels of the end of March and reach a high at $15,238.

- The fortune of the bitcoin creator under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto, who, according to various estimates, owns from 750 thousand to 1.1 million BTC coins, has exceeded $60 billion. Thanks to this, according to the Forbes rating, Nakamoto got into the top 20 richest people in the world.
Nakamoto's fortune assessment does not include bitcoin forks belonging to him. For example, the creator of the first cryptocurrency could have over $650 million in Bitcoin Cash, $250 million in Bitcoin SV, $1.1 million in Bitcoin Gold, and a host of other forks.

- According to the analytical service Santiment, large investors, or the so-called "whales", continue to accumulate bitcoins. Analysts found that they have accumulated up to 2.2% of the total cryptocurrency market supply so far, reaching an 11-month high. A similar situation was observed at the beginning of May last year.
These are investors who control 100,000 or more BTC, according to the Santiment report. At the same time, the volume of cryptocurrency on addresses containing from 1,000 to 100,000 coins, on the contrary, decreased from 42.5% to 39.5%.

- An Italian citizen was arrested on suspicion of trying to pay with cryptocurrency for the murder of his ex-girlfriend. According to Europol, the suspect found a website on the darknet that offers such services. After there appeared a contractor ready to fulfill the order, the suspect transferred about 10 thousand euros in bitcoins to him. However, Europol and the Italian police uncovered the criminal plan in time.
Europol also tracked the cryptocurrency transfer. To this end, law enforcement agencies turned to the crypto exchange, where the suspect's virtual currency was originally purchased, and it provided the authorities with the requested information. The name of the exchange is not disclosed.

- Los Angeles-based real estate agency Caruso has partnered with the Gemini cryptocurrency exchange to accept bitcoins in residential and commercial transactions. This fact is interesting because Caruso's long list of tenants includes Tesla CEO Elon Musk. He sells his cars at the large Americana at Brand shopping and entertainment center in Glendale.
Even though Caruso has never discussed bitcoin payments with the well-known entrepreneur, it is believed that Musk may be the very first tenant to pay rent in cryptocurrency. “I didn't tell Elon about this, but he might be a trailblazer who pays rent in bitcoin,” said the company's founder and CEO Rick Caruso.

- Bitcoin miners are accumulating coins for the first time since December 2020, thus containing the downward pressure on the market. The number of bitcoins in miners' wallets has increased to 1.806 million BTC over the past two weeks.
“Miners have switched to accumulating liquid assets, because they have enough cash reserves to support their activities, which they raised during the rise of bitcoin from $20,000 to $40,000. Or, most of them are holding coins in anticipation of further appreciation,” Flex Young, CEO of Hong Kong-based Babel Finance, told CoinDesk.
Miners receive income in cryptocurrency, but they pay fiat to service providers, so they are forced to sell part of the mined coins. The volumes of such sales depend on current market conditions and expectations of the bitcoin price behavior.
Starting from March 31, miners started accumulating BTC reserves again. Whereas for four months before that, they reduced their positions, converting bitcoins to fiat. The largest volumes of cryptocurrency, from 17,000 to 24,000 BTC per day, were sold by them in January 2021.

- CNBC TV presenter Jim Kramer would switch entirely to cryptocurrency, and it would take him several years. He has already reached the point of demanding that his salary be paid in bitcoins. Apparently, he was influenced by the news that the MicroStrategy company began to pay remuneration in bitcoins to its members of the Board of Directors. Kramer named MicroStrategy a leader in Bitcoin adoption in his Mad Money program, predicting that other companies would follow suit.


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[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 19 - 23, 2021​

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The past week was marked by two important economic events: impressively strong macro-statistics from the USA and a collapse in the yield of 10-year US government bonds.
According to the data published on Thursday April 15, US retail sales jumped by +9.8% in March (against the forecast +5.9% and a fall of -2.7% in February), which is the best indicator for the last 10 months. What is happening on the labor market also shows an active recovery of the country's economy. Thus, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits fell from 769 thousand to 576 thousand. And this is not just better than the predicted 700 thousand, this is the lowest level since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Industrial production grew by 2.7%.
All these figures clearly indicate the rapid growth of US GDP in the first quarter of 2021. and allow us to speak with confidence about its continuation in the coming months. Against this background, the collapse in the yield of American Treasuries, the strongest since the beginning of last November, looks surprising. If at the end of March, the yield on 10-year bonds reached a local multi-month maximum of 1.775%, now it has fallen to 1.583%.
Along with bonds, the dollar is weakening. The USD DXY index is trading in the 91.5 zone on Friday, April 16, which is 180 points below this year's high of 93.3. As a result, as predicted by most experts (65%), the EUR/USD pair continued its growth last week, coming close to the important support/resistance level of 1.2000 and ending the five-day period at 1.1980.
This situation suggests that strong economic statistics from the United States can no longer provide serious support to the US currency. And the latter is now more correlated with the yield on Treasury bonds. Apparently, the rate of vaccination against coronavirus has already been taken into account in the USD quotes. And new fiscal stimulus programs and endless printing of new money by the Federal Reserve started working against the dollar. Its weakening has already gone beyond the usual correction, heating up the risk sentiments of investors: in addition to the euro, the currencies of commodity and developing countries are also growing, and the S&P500 index renews its all-time high for the 22nd time this year;

- GBP/USD. The weakening dollar supported the British currency, the fall of the GBP/USD pair stopped, and it even managed to climb 120 points. Thus, its movement over the past four weeks can be defined as lateralin channel 1.3670-1.3920. As for the last chord, the pair placed it in the central zone of this channel, ending the trading session at 1.3840;

- USD/JPY. It was said above about a sharp drop in the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds. Experts call the coverage of short positions by hedge funds, as well as the return of Japanese buyers to the market, among the possible reasons for this collapse. They were actively getting rid of American bonds at the end of the financial year, but they began to replenish their investment portfolios with them now. This led to an increase in demand for the yen, which, thanks to the negative interest rate, they use to finance such operations.
One of the scenarios pronounced a week ago suggested that the weakening of the dollar and the strengthening of the yen would push the pair USD/JPY towards the support of 108.40. This is exactly what happened: starting from the level of 109.65, the pair dropped to the horizon 108.60 by Thursday, April 15, followed by a small rebound and a finish at 108.80;

- cryptocurrencies. What has been so much anticipated over the past eight weeks has come true: Bitcoin has finally broken through the $60,000 horizon and is now trying to gain a foothold above this important psychological level. The new historical high was the height of $64,800, which the BTC/USD pair reached on Wednesday April 14. However, a correction followed, and the bulls were struggling to prevent the main cryptocurrency from falling below $60,000 for the whole of Friday, April 16.
According to the Forbes rating, thanks to the growth of bitcoin, its creator under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto got into the top 20 richest people in the world. According to various estimates, he owns between 750k and 1.1 million BTC coins, and his fortune has exceeded $60 billion now.
But if Nakamoto became the owner of countless crypto-treasures a long time ago, then the current large investors are only at the beginning of their journey. According to the analytical service Santiment, the so-called "whales" continue to accumulate bitcoins. Analysts found that they have accumulated up to 2.2% of the total cryptocurrency market supply so far, reaching an 11-month high. A similar situation was observed at the beginning of May last year. As the Santiment report says, we are talking about investors controlling 100,000 or more BTC.
Along with the "whales", for the first time since December 2020, miners have also started to accumulate savings, which creates a shortage of supply and contributes to an increase in the price of the main digital asset.
Miners receive income in cryptocurrency, but they pay fiat to service and equipment providers, so they are forced to sell part of the mined coins. The volumes of such sales depend on current market conditions and expectations of the bitcoin price. Starting from March 31, miners started accumulating BTC reserves again. Whereas for four months before that, they reduced their positions, converting bitcoins to fiat. The largest volumes of cryptocurrency, from 17,000 to 24,000 BTC per day, were sold by them in January 2021.
“Miners have switched to accumulating digital assets, because they have enough cash reserves to support their activities, which they raised during the rise of bitcoin from $20,000 to $40,000. Or, most of them are holding coins in anticipation of further appreciation,” Flex Young, CEO of Hong Kong-based Babel Finance, told CoinDesk. The number of bitcoins in miners' wallets has increased to 1.806 million BTC over the past two weeks.
The growth of the BTC/USD pair is facilitated by a weak dollar and a decrease in the yield of long-term US government bonds as well. This increases the attractiveness of cryptocurrency as a hedge against inflation.
The total crypto market capitalization on April 10 finally crossed the $ 2.0 trillion bar, and never fell below it. At the time of this writing, on April 16, it is at $ 2.2 trillion.
At the same time, the share of bitcoin in the total crypto market capitalization continues to decline continuously: if it was 72.65% on January 2, then it was only 52.10% on April 16. As already mentioned, this is most likely due to the fact that speculators are switching to other, more profitable, assets.
As for the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, it rose from 70 to 78 points in a week. Both values are in the overbought zone, but they are still far from critical, and therefore cannot become a serious obstacle to the growth of the BTC/USD pair.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. As mentioned in the first part of the review, trillions of dollars of economic support programs not only increase the US national debt, but also begin to put serious pressure on the American currency. Low, close to zero interest rates do not help it either. But at the same time, the head of the FRS says that although the pace of the US economic recovery is impressive, it is not enough to even begin to discuss the curtailment of fiscal stimulus programs. According to Jerome Powell, this requires several more months of such positive results. The economy must “make even more significant progress” towards target levels of employment and inflation.
Of course, such statements are not good for the dollar and contribute to the growth of risk sentiment. But as for the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, there are more and more vigorous statements of EU officials about the imminent termination of lockdowns and the unprecedented growth of the Eurozone economy. According to the consensus forecast of Bloomberg experts, the ECB will slow down the emergency asset purchase (QE) program by July, and at the end of this year will announce its termination in March 2022.
All of the above could lead to the EUR/USD breakout of the 1.2000 resistance and its rise to the January highs in the 1.2300 area. Resistances on this path will be the levels 1.2125 and 1.2185.
However, at the moment such a bullish forecast is supported by only 25% of experts. True, graphical analysis, 100% of trend indicators on H4 and 90% on D1 are on their side. The picture is slightly different among oscillators. Only 65% of oscillators on both time frames are colored green, while the rest are already giving signals that the pair is overbought.
The majority of analysts (50%) have now taken a neutral position, believing that the bulls and the bears will be engaged in “tug-of-war” across the 1.2000 line in the near future. But the victory will still be with the dollar in the future. And, when moving from weekly to monthly forecast, the number of supporters of bears increases from 25% to 70%. In their opinion, the EUR / USD pair will test the support in the 1.1700 zone once again and, if successful, will drop another 100 points lower.
As for the events of the coming week, we should pay attention to Thursday April 22. The next ECB meeting will be held on that day. Any special changes in its monetary policy are not likely to be foreseen. However, the press conference of the management of the European Central Bank is of interest, during which investors can receive positive signals about the intentions of this regulator. If the business activity indicators in Germany and the Eurozone, which will be released the next day, April 23, also turn out to be encouraging, this could support the euro;

- GBP/USD. Problems after the UK's exit from the EU, an impressive trade deficit and the country's budget deficit continue to put pressure on the pound. And even the dollar, which weakened against other currencies, let the GBP/USD pair get just a sideways trend, but never return to sustainable growth.
The British currency may regain its attractiveness, especially if large capital that left it due to Brexit begins to return to the country. The pound is also supported by the successes of vaccination against COVID-19. Therefore, some analysts believe that the long-term uptrend, which began on March 20, 2020, is too early to be buried, and the pair has a chance to continue its movement to the north. 30% of experts vote for the bullish forecast at the moment. However, when switching to forecasting by the end of spring, their number doubles: up to 60%. The nearest resistance levels are 1.3920 and 1.4000.
In the meantime, the overwhelming majority of analysts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, first expect the pair to drop to the lower border of the 1.3670-1.3920 trading channel, and in case of its breakdown, the pair will move to the 1.3600 zone.
Among the events of the coming week that can influence the formation of local trends, we can note the release of statistics on the UK labor market on Tuesday April 20, data on the consumer market on Wednesday April 21, and business activity in the Markit service sector.¬ on Friday April 23. Noteworthy is the speech of the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey on April 21 as well;

- USD/JPY. The pair starts the next week within the zone 108.60-109.25. Recall that this is the very narrow trading range from which it could not get out for three whole weeks in March. And it is quite possible that now it will become a serious obstacle on the path of the yen to further strengthening. Graphical analysis completely agrees with this version. According to its forecast on the H4 and D1 timeframes, before continuing to move south, the USD/JPY pair will be squeezed within these limits for several days.
And 70% of analysts are sure that the pair will continue to decline. Support levels are 108.35, 107.50 and 106.00; The remaining 30% expect the pair to bounce up. Resistances are at 109.25 and 110.00, the goal is to overcome the March 31 high of 110.95 and take the height of 111.00;

- cryptocurrencies. The most optimistic forecast for the bitcoin price was given by the authors of the cult animated series The Simpsons. A running line with quotes of financial assets appears on the TV screen in the new 18th episode of season 32. The bitcoin exchange rate is marked with a green sign of infinity.
Of course, such dynamics would greatly delight investors. However, the forecasts of specialists still look much more modest. Although they also strive upward. So, according to the latest report of the Kraken exchange, its analysts, relying on historical data, admitted the growth of bitcoin by 50% in April. Taking into account that the month began at $59,000, the target of the movement could be the $90,000 mark. However, before the rally resumes, the first cryptocurrency can expect a correction of at least $10,000.
As for the second major cryptocurrency, Ethereum, Kraken predicts it could rise to $15,000. Exchange analysts noted the important, in their opinion, support and resistance levels for this altcoin: $1,462 and $2,695. Plotting historical patterns of ETH price movement on logarithmic curves, they concluded that the peak of the bullish cycle is still far away. The experts are confident that the price of Ethereum could rise by 700% from the levels of the end of March and reach a high at $15,238.
A slightly more modest forecast for the price of this altcoin was given by the famous crypto trader and host of the podcast The Wolf Of All Streets Scott Melker. According to him, Ethereum may surpass bitcoin in terms of profitability in 2021, and the price of the coin may rise to $10,000.
He revealed In an interview with Cointelegraph that he has largely switched his strategy from the first cryptocurrency to ETH in recent months. “I don’t understand why this is crazy. In fact, this is just an increase of less than five times the current price. Bitcoin almost tripled last year,” Melker told reporters. “It reminds me of investing in the Internet in the early 1990s.”
Maciej Vitkoviak looked even deeper into the history, revealing to the world a crypto-life hack of almost 40 years ago - an emulator of a vintage computer Commodore-64 from 1982, adapted for mining bitcoins. This developer has created the C64 Bitcoin Miner software specifically for this PC. He demonstrated a hashrate of 0.2 H/s on the VICE emulator, which will allow him to get a block of BTC “in just” ... 337 years and 10 months ?.

NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews

- PayPal's Venmo mobile payment app now allows users to buy, store and sell Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash. The minimum investment in cryptocurrency is just $1. In addition, you can now share the purchased cryptocurrency with friends through the Venmo social feed.
Thus, PayPal continues to expand the functionality associated with digital assets. As a reminder, more recently, this payment giant has allowed users to buy cryptocurrency through its main platform and use their crypto wallets to pay for purchases in online stores around the world.

- Popular cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo said that Bitcoin's drawdown on April 18 below $51,000 was triggered by massive power outages in China. Due to the fact that most of the miners were temporarily out of order, the hash rate of the asset began to decline. According to Woo, the situation should stabilize soon, which will lead to further increases in the value of bitcoin.
“This is a power outage in Xinjiang province. It is one of the largest regions in China where the mining power of bitcoin is concentrated. According to the BTC Cambridge Energy Consumption Index, Xinjiang accounts for about 25% of the coin's total hashrate. It becomes clear straight away that the entire cryptocurrency market has dropped significantly precisely because of the Chinese incident,” Woo said.
According to the expert, if his theory is confirmed, then the situation with the hash rate of the asset should stabilize quickly. When the main network starts processing the same number of transactions, the value of the coin will start to rise again.

- An unknown attacker allegedly stole phone numbers and credit card details of Domino's Pizza India customers and put them up for sale for 10 bitcoins (about $550,000 at the time of writing). In parallel, the hacker demanded 50 BTC ($2.75 million) from Domino's to prevent the information from getting publicly available.
Representatives of the management company confirmed the hack but denied the leak. "In accordance with our policy, we do not store financial information or credit card information of our customers, so such information has not been compromised," said Domino's Pizza.

- Candidate for the post of New York City Treasurer Reshma Patel presented an urban development plan based on investments in blockchain businesses and cryptocurrencies.
According to her plan, this should play an important role in the restoration of the city. “My intention to run for office is due to my concerns about the financial health of New York, especially in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is clear that cryptocurrencies have a future in finance and a future in financial planning in New York,” Patel said. Among other things, she plans to invest in funds focused on blockchain, create a working group to explore options for direct investment in technology, and also transfer part of the city's pension fund reserves to digital assets.

- The world-famous American magazine TIME followed the path of Tesla, and in addition to investing in bitcoin, it also began to accept cryptocurrency for subscription payments. To this end, TIME has started to cooperate with the crypto payment platform Crypto.com, offering an additional reward of 10% for those who pay for the service in native Crypto.com CRO tokens.
The service is currently available in the US and Canada, but a global expansion is planned in the coming months. TIME's rapid digital transformation is the result of our commitment to new technologies and working closely with innovative companies like Crypto.com to bring our vision to life, said TIME CTO Bharat Krish.

- Bitcoin trend remains bullish. This is the conclusion reached by analysts of the Santiment resource, who analyzed the frequency of tweets with the phrase "buy the dip" and "bought the dip". With the bitcoin price dipping below $51,000 on April 18, the number of low buy posts hit a weekly record of 2,108 tweets. This allowed Santiment analysts to conclude that this correction is nothing more than a "bump in the road."
This is not the first time Santiment has used Twitter stats to gauge the market. For example, earlier the analysts used the mention of Binance coin (BNB) to determine the peak price of this cryptocurrency.

- Cryptocurrencies like bitcoin need to be considered as alternative investments. This was stated by the deputy governor of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) Li Bo. “Bitcoin and stablecoins are encrypted assets. It is an investment asset, an alternative investment, not a currency. They should play an important role in the future,” explained Li Bo. However, he stressed the associated regulatory uncertainty. According to the official, "current practices" in the form of banning the operation of bitcoin exchanges and holding ICOs will remain in force until the development of new regulation is completed, which should become similar to the regulation of the banking system.

- Former hedge fund manager and host of CNBC's Mad Money Jim Cramer called himself a "renegade" and announced the sale of his assets in the first cryptocurrency. “I know people will be mad at me, but I paid off my mortgage with bitcoin yesterday,” Kramer said on TV. The host did not elaborate on how many coins he sold. But, he said, it was half of his digital gold reserves.
Twitter users likened Kramer's move to Laszlo Hanyecz's famous 10,000 BTC purchase of pizza in May 2010.

- The Swiss giant AXA was the first of the insurance companies of this country to start accepting bitcoin for payment. To accept digital payments, the company entered into a partnership agreement with the cryptocurrency broker Bitcoin Suisse. AXA customers will be able to pay with bitcoin for all of the company's products, with the exception of life insurance. This is due to legal restrictions.
AXA has not ruled out that in the future its products can be purchased using other cryptocurrencies, but for now the company will test working with digital assets using BTC only.


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[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 26 - 30, 2021​

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The US economy is showing impressive growth. Europe, on the other hand, is in a widespread lockdown and, apparently, is experiencing a second recession. The share of those who received at least one COVID-19 vaccine in the EU is 25.1%, while in the United States there are 2.5 times more of them, 63.2%. Can the euro grow in such a situation? Only 25% of experts answered positively to this question last week, and they turned out to be right: the pairEUR / USD reached the level of 1.2080 on Tuesday, April 20.
The majority of analysts (50%) believed that the bulls and the bears would be engaged in “tug of war” across the 1.2000 line. And they also turned out to be not far from the truth: the pair fluctuated up/down in the range of 1.1995-1.2080 from Tuesday until the end of the week. Although, of course, the victory remained with the bulls, since the last chord of the trading session sounded near the high of the last seven weeks at 1.2100.
There are two main reasons for these dynamics. The first one is in America, the second one is on the other side of the Atlantic, in Europe.
On the one hand, the yield on long-term US Treasury bonds continues to fall, and along with it the US currency continues to weaken. The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies (DXY) declined to 91.0, down 230 points from this year's high of 93.3. This fuels the risk sentiment of investors and continues to push the major US stock indexes up. This happens even despite the proposal of US President Joe Biden to almost double (from 20% to 39.6%) the capital gains tax for citizens with income of $1 million or more.
On the other hand, the euro was supported by positive forecasts for the rate of vaccination in Europe, in particular the news that Pfizer will increase the supply of vaccines to the EU by 100 million doses. The yield on German bonds is growing, which are beginning to catch up with their competitors from the United States. Stronger than expected statistics on business activity in the Eurozone helped the bulls on EUR/USD as well. Analysts polled by Reuters expected on average the PMI to decline from 53.2 points to 52.8. However, it rose to 53.7 in April;

- GBP/USD. First, a few words about another pair, GBC/USD, which may appear in the foreseeable future. While in some countries, regulators ban cryptocurrencies (for example, in Turkey), in others they are trying to put them at their service. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has recently conducted a survey and it has turned out that of 66 central banks, 52 are thinking about their own digital currency. And one of these reflective regulators is the Bank of England, backed by one of the country's largest financial conglomerates, Barclays.
The digital pound has already received a playful name "Britcoin", which makes those who know what "Brit Milah" smile. For those who are not in the know, let us explain: this is a rite of circumcision among religious Jews. However, if Brit Milah is rooted in the deep past, then Britcoin is the digital future of the UK that has broken away from the EU.
But until the GBC/USD pair has appeared in the list of trading instruments, let us return to its “older sister”, the GBP/USD pair. It went up at the beginning of the week, thanks to the weakening dollar, like EUR/USD. The pair reached a height of 1.4010 on Tuesday, having added 170 points. However, it did not manage to fix above the 1.4000 horizon: the pound lost all its advantage two days later, and the pair dropped to the level of 1.3825. At the very end of the trading week, the pound was helped by strong statistics on business activity in the services sector: the Markit index rose from 56.3 to 60.1 (against the forecast of 59.0) over the month, thanks to which the pair grew slightly and completed the five-day period at 1.3885;

- USD/JPY. Recall that we talked in the previous review about the fact that one of the reasons for the fall in the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds, and with it the strengthening of the yen against the dollar, may be the return of Japanese buyers to the market. They were actively getting rid of American bonds at the end of the financial year, but they began to replenish their investment portfolios with them now.
The majority of analysts (70%) voted seven days ago for the fact that the growth of the Japanese currency and the decline of the USD/JPY pair will continue, and this forecast turned out to be absolutely correct. The level 107.50 was indicated as a support, which became the local bottom of the week. This was followed by a correction and a finish at 107.85;

- cryptocurrencies. While the task of the bulls on Friday, April 16 was to prevent the BTC/USD pair from falling below $60,000, they are struggling seven days later to gain a foothold in the $50,000 area. After the explosive growth to $64,800, which took place on the eve of the American exchange Coinbase' IPO, we are witnessing an equally rapid collapse now. The price of bitcoin was falling to the level of $47,545 on Friday April 23, showing a 26.6% drop.
It is difficult to single out any one reason for what happened. Prominent analyst Willy Woo said the drawdown was triggered by massive power outages in Xinjiang province, one of the largest regions in China where bitcoin mining is concentrated. According to the BTC Cambridge Energy Consumption Index, Xinjiang accounts for about 25% of the coin's total hashrate. Due to the fact that most of the miners were temporarily out of order, the hash rate of the asset began to decline, and the average transaction fee on the bitcoin network exceeded $50, which has not been the case since 2017.
According to Woo, bitcoin should have returned to growth after the electricity supply situation stabilized. Electricity returned to Xinjiang, but bitcoin continued its decline.
We have repeatedly written that the crypto market is heavily influenced by regulatory risks. And in this case, it is possible that panic has been fueled by the rumors that an investigation may begin in the United States regarding a number of financial institutions on suspicion of money laundering using cryptocurrencies. Additional pressure on the market was made by two news stories. The first is the news that the US Congress has approved the creation of a SEC and CFTC working group to develop cryptocurrency regulation. The second is the plans of US President Joe Biden to raise taxes on capital gains, which could limit investment in digital assets.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization decreased by 17% over the week, from $2.2 trillion to $1.825 trillion. Meanwhile, bitcoin continues to lose ground. If its share in the total capitalization on January 2 was 72.65%, then it is only 50.70% on April 23. This suggests that investors are looking for more profitable assets for their investments among altcoins, of which there are currently more than 8,000. Just look at the Ethereum quotes. Despite the April 18 crash, this leading altcoin managed to renew its all-time high last week, reaching $2,635. Of course, a wave of sales did not pass it, but the fall in the price of ETH over the week was only about 11%. As for the participation of Ethereum in the total capitalization of the crypto market, its share has grown from 10.79% to 14.49% since the year started.
Summing up the past week, we note that the bitcoin price dropped below the 50-day average, which is quite an alarming factor and may provoke further sales. The BTC dominance index, as already mentioned, is also going down. However, it is still far from the lows of early 2018, when it fell to 32%. Another index, Crypto Fear & Greed Index, dropped from 78 to 55 points during the week and approached the neutral zone.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. As expected, the European Central Bank
maintained an ultra-soft policy and did not make any adjustments at its meeting on April 22. And its head Christine Lagarde made every effort to limit further growth of the euro. Investors should have concluded from her speech that the ECB will begin to roll back fiscal stimulus (QE) later than the US Federal Reserve, since the EU economy lags behind the American one. (According to JPMorgan forecasts, the GDP of the Eurozone, after a 1% decline in the first quarter of 2021, is expected to grow by 6% in the second quarter. In the US, the same figures are +5% and +10%).
The ECB is not interested in a strong euro, as it interferes with European exports, and considers the current EUR/USD quotes to be quite high. However, Ms. Lagarde was unable to reverse the pair's downward trend. Moreover, it is very likely that the US Federal Reserve Head Jerome Powell will say the same thing at its upcoming meeting on Wednesday, April 28 as she did: that, although the pace of the US economic recovery is impressive, this is absolutely not enough to start discussing curtailment of fiscal stimulus programs.
The next meeting of the ECB will be held on June 10, and a lot can happen during this time. The euro will be pushed upwards by the increasing rate of vaccination and the economic recovery of the EU. And the bears are unlikely to be able to turn the pair south until the yield on US Treasuries starts to rise again.
Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the four largest countries in the Eurozone will vaccinate 37% of their population by the end of May, and this figure will already be 54% by the end of June. As a result, the bank raised its forecast for EUR/USD from $1.2100 by the end of the year to $1.2500.
The latest Bloomberg consensus estimate, on the contrary, decreased. If the figure called in January was 1.2500, now it is 1.2200. Although this value suggests further strengthening of the euro.
The main event of the coming week will be the meeting of the Open Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve System and the commentary of its management on the future monetary policy. Jerome Powell, as already mentioned, is likely to adhere to a rhetoric similar to Christine Lagarde, which may put another pressure on the yield of American bonds and the USD rate.
Growth of the euro in the coming week is expected by 60% of experts, supported by graphical analysis, 100% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators onH4 and D1. The remaining 15% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought. Resistance levels are 1.2125, 1.2185, the target is the February 25 high at 1.2245.
It should be noted that when switching to the forecast for May, the picture changes sharply, and here it is already 70% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, who expect the EUR/USD pair to fall below the 1.2000 horizon. Supports are located at 1.1940, 1.1865 and 1.1800 levels. The target of the bears is the low of the end of March around 1.1700.
As for the events of the coming week, apart from the Fed meeting, one should pay attention to the statistics on consumer markets: the USA - on Monday April 26, Germany - on Thursday April 29 and the Eurozone¬ - Friday April 30. In addition, GDP indicators for the first quarter will become known: the USA - April 29, as well as Germany and the Eurozone - April 30;

- GBP/USD. A number of experts believe that successful vaccination of the population will help warm up the UK economy. Quarantine restrictions have been severely relaxed in recent weeks, pubs and restaurants have opened. Macro statistics are encouraging. However, Brexit-related concerns, massive trade deficits and UK budget deficits continue to weigh on the pound. But the dollar is also under pressure. Perhaps that is why the forecast for the GBP/USD pair looks rather contradictory: 45% of experts vote for its movement to the north, 35% to the south and the remaining 20% to the east. The technical analysis readings on H4 look contradictory as well.
On D1, thanks to the uptrend that began 13 months ago, most of the oscillators (65%) and trend indicators (85%) look up. Graphical analysis also indicates that the pair will try again to storm the 1.40000 high, but after that it will go down to the support in the 1.3670-1.3700 zone. The nearest resistance level is 1.3920, the nearest support is 1.3800;

- USD/JPY. The key indicator for this pair was and is the yield on US government bonds. If it continues to decline next week, then the pair USD/JPY will go further down. The nearest support is in the 106.80-107.10 zone, the next one is located near the 200-day moving average of 105.80.
The experts' opinion coincides completely with what was expressed a week earlier. 70% of them believe that the pair will continue to fall. The remaining 30% expect the pair to rebound upward (resistance levels 108.35 and 109.00). There is complete discord among the oscillators on H4, on D1 - 75% are colored red, and 25% give signals that the pair is oversold. Graphical analysis on both time frames shows that at first the pair can rise to the resistance of 108.35, and only then, having bounced off this level, it will sharply go down;

- cryptocurrencies. According to a number of experts, the drop in the share of bitcoin in the total capitalization of the crypto market is a very alarming factor for investors. Recall that the dominance index of the leading cryptocurrency was 85% at the beginning of 2017, and it decreased to 45% before the collapse. Now this figure is just over 50%. Pessimists argue that the rise in BTC/USD quotes before the listing of Coinbase on the NASDAQ exchange was the last stage of the bullish rally, and we need to prepare for a new "crypto winter" now, which could stretch for several years. This is confirmed by the massive liquidation of BTC futures.
However, as is usually the case, in addition to pessimists, there are also optimists. For example, analysts at Santiment believe that bitcoin's trend remains bullish. They have reached this conclusion having analyzed the frequency of tweets with the phrase "buy the dip" and "bought the dip". With the bitcoin price dipping below $51,000, the number of low buy posts hit a weekly record of 2,108 tweets. This allowed Santiment analysts to conclude that this correction is nothing more than a "bump in the road."
However, two thousand Twitter users are unlikely to seriously affect the market. Much more important is the mood of institutional investors who are not crypto enthusiasts at all. And there is a high probability that they will not be active until there is clarity on the attitude of the leading regulators to the sector. Those of the "whales" who purchased the cryptocurrency in the fall of 2020 may well start fixing profits at the current level: the price around $45,000-50,000 is more than acceptable for them. But new large purchases look quite risky.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews

- The Cuban authorities have decided that cryptocurrencies are necessary for building socialism and have included them in the program for the country's economic development until 2026. The document is titled "Guiding Principles of the Party's Economic and Socialist Policy."
The idea of introducing cryptocurrencies into the domestic economy of the country was first voiced in 2019. The authorities announced then that they were going to use the assets for external payments, since operations with the dollar became unavailable for them due to the sanctions imposed by the United States against Cuba. The new set of measures includes support for cryptocurrency initiatives. We are also talking about currency liberalization, which should allow citizens and companies to use any type of assets for settlements.
The Cuban authorities want to build on the experience of Venezuela, which was able to introduce its own cryptocurrency called El Petro and made possible the use of bitcoin and other digital assets. Several national payment platforms have appeared in the country, designed to work with cryptocurrencies.

- Bill Miller, legendary investor and founder of hedge fund Miller Value Partners, said it was no longer possible to ignore bitcoin. According to him, cryptocurrencies are gradually becoming mainstream, which is why they will be fully adopted within a few years. The financier did not rule out that central banks will try to control the situation, but they will still have to give up sooner or later.
“If bitcoin was considered a kind of internal network asset earlier, and the overwhelming majority of citizens were sure that it would soon collapse, everyone is now waiting for a new wave of bullish sentiment to buy as many coins as possible at a bargain price. Investors have everything under control now, because of which exchanges can no longer move the asset to drawdowns or growth so simply,” Miller believes.
The financier recalled that he first invested in BTC in 2014 or 2015 at an average price of $350 per coin. Now such amounts seem so distant past that no investor believes in returning to them.

- Tesla sold part of its bitcoins for $272 million, generating a profit of $101 million from this transaction. This is stated in the report for the first quarter of 2021. According to Elon Musk, the electric car maker sold 10% of its crypto assets solely to test the liquidity of the market.
Recall that the company invested $1.5 billion in BTC just in early February. And according to Tesla's management, the company is satisfied with the liquidity of the market for the first cryptocurrency and will continue to accumulate digital assets, selling part of its electric vehicles for bitcoins.

- The growing interest in cryptocurrencies threatens the South Korean labor market with a shortage of young workers. According to a number of employers, their employees aged between 20 and 30 are distracted by tracking bitcoin price fluctuations or quit their jobs to devote themselves entirely to trading. In this regard, some companies are looking for ways to block access to cryptocurrency exchanges during business hours.
The 20-year-old Chosun interviewee left the credit card company after three years as he earned 3 billion wons ($2.7 million) in cryptocurrency revenues. “I loved the job,” he says, “but I realized that financially it would be wiser to focus on investing, taking into account the income from the time I spend.”

- The creator of the sports media platform Barstool Sports Dave Portnoy announced the investment of a "seven-figure" amount in the first cryptocurrency in August 2020. He did this after he met with the founders of the Gemini exchange, the Winklevoss brothers. Later, the investor sold all his bitcoins at a price of about $11,600. He said that he lost a decent amount on the market drawdown and was disappointed in cryptocurrencies.
And now Dave Portnoy has reacquired digital gold in the amount of... 1 bitcoin. “This is all I could afford at $48,000. 50 thousand, and now I have one bitcoin,” stated the creator of Barstool Sports.

- In 1581, the Russian Tsar Ivan the Terrible killed his son, in anger. And now, 440 years later, one of the residents of Moscow filed a complaint with the police against his son, in anger. He did this after he failed to receive over 100 million rubles (approx. $1.35 million) from the family's cryptocurrency mining farm. The Russian created a mining company in 2017 and appointed his 23-year-old son its CEO, while he continued to periodically invest in the business. In April 2021, the company started having problems and the head of the family fired his son. According to his father's calculations, at least 137 million rubles should have been on the company's account, but he found only 18 million, after which he reported to the police.

- New York-based wine distributor Acker, Merrall & Condit has announced that it has begun accepting digital currencies as payment at its auctions and retail stores. Acker, Merrall & Condit is the world's largest fine wine auction house, founded back in 1820. After the pandemic, the company found itself in the same boat as other retailers as most of its offline stores were closed.
To offset the impact of COVID-19, the organization has placed a bid on its own online auction. Prices for some of the best wines it has to offer are around $1000 a bottle. And according to the company's management, it is very fortunate that now they can be paid for with such cryptocurrencies as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash and Dogecoin.

- One of the JPMorgan top managers, Daniel Pinto, announced back in February 2021 that his bank was ready to launch a service for operations with bitcoin if the bank's clients needed it. And this week, the Coin Desk portal reported that the American giant decided to launch a fund focused on BTC. The journalists found out that the JPMorgan bitcoin fund will be available only to private clients and will start operating this summer.
Note that the head of this investment bank, Jamie Dimon, had previously repeatedly criticized BTC, stating that the cryptocurrency is a common fraudulent scheme. Daimon even threatened his traders with firing if they tried to invest in bitcoin. But as you can see, the position of Dimon and the policy of JPMorgan have changed significantly now.

- Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin donated 100 ETH and 100 MKR totaling over $600,000 to a fund to fight the coronavirus pandemic in India. Following Buterin, the former CTO of the Coinbase crypto exchange Balaji Srinivasan joined the campaign, donating 21.7463 ETH (almost $550,000 at the time of payment).

- The creator of the stock-to-flow model, a popular cryptocurrency analyst aka PlanB, believes that the current decline in bitcoin is quite normal and expected, and only confirms the bullish trend. The analyst stressed that one should not expect constant growth, sometimes pullbacks should also occur: “Nothing grows without pullbacks. Bitcoin has already been growing for 6 months in a row. This is similar to the mid-cycle correction we saw in 2013 and 2017.”
At the same time, the expert noted that he even “calmed down to some extent”: the market was too overheated, and now a small “cooling” phase awaits it. In addition, the rate of the first cryptocurrency turned out to be lower currently than the expectations of the S2F model, which means it may well continue to grow.

- The bitcoin rate will reach $200,000 in 2022. This forecast was recently announced by Dan Morehead, CEO of venture capital firm Pantera Capital. According to the businessman, BTC is doomed to further growth, as more and more investors begin to understand that storing capital in cryptocurrency is much more efficient than in traditional instruments.
The value of BTC adds $200 every time 1 million new users register on its network. If such dynamics persist, the price of cryptocurrency in 2022 will approach or even exceed the $200,000 mark.
According to Dan Morehead, the spread of bitcoin is a result of, among other things, the growth in the number of smartphone users. There are now about 3.5 billion people in the world who own such devices, making bitcoin available anywhere and at any time.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

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[Stan NordFX]

Super Lottery: NordFX Gives Away 100,000 USD to Traders​

The $100,000 Super Lottery was launched by the brokerage company NordFX among its clients on April 1. The name speaks for itself: 100 cash prizes of $500, $1,000, $2,500 and a super prize of $ 20,000 will be drawn by the year end.

It is quite easy to take part in the lottery and get a chance to win one or even several of these prizes. It is enough to have a Pro account in NordFX (and for those who do not have it - register and open a new one), top it up with $200 and... just trade.

Having made a trading turnover of only 2 lots in Forex currency pairs or gold (or 4 lots in silver), the trader will automatically receive a virtual lottery ticket. The number of lottery tickets for one participant is not limited. The more deposits and the greater the turnover, the more lottery tickets the participant will have, and the greater their chances of becoming a winner of the prize money.

Unlike trader contests, there is no need for a lottery participant to show exceptional trading results. In this case, both experienced professionals and beginners have equal chances of winning. And they can either use the received prize money in further trading, or take it out without any restrictions.

70 prizes of $500 each, 20 prizes of $1,000 each, 10 prizes of $2,500 and 1 super prize of $20,000 will be drawn. The draws will be held on July 1, October 1, 2021 and January 3, 2022.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

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[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for May 03 - 07, 2021​

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The last week of April was marked by three events¬: the Fed meeting, as well as the publication of data on the US and Eurozone GDP.
As for the US Fed, the results of its meeting were predictable. The interest rate was left unchanged at 0.25%. The volume of the quantitative easing program (QE) remained the same, $120 billion monthly. And the head of the regulator Jerome Powell uttered almost word for word what we wrote in the previous forecast: although the pace of the US economic recovery is impressive, this is completely insufficient to talk about curtailing fiscal stimulus programs. So far, everything is rather fragile, the acceleration of inflation, according to Powell, is a temporary factor, and the number of people employed remains 8.5 million lower than in February 2020.
On the other hand, US GDP growth in the first quarter was higher than forecast and amounted to 6.4% (against 4.3% a quarter earlier), showing the best dynamics since 1984. The country's economy needs to add just 1% to reach the pre-crisis high. And, most likely, it will fully recover even before the beginning of July by to this indicator.
Such strong statistics led to an increase in the yield of US Treasuries. But this did not help the dollar much until the end of the week, since European bonds were also growing. Germany's 10-year debt rates have hit their highest since March 2020.
The gap between the US and the EU in terms of the speed of return to pre-crisis indicators may also soon be narrowed. ECB President Christine Lagarde said on April 28 that "a light is already visible at the end of the tunnel as the pace of vaccination in the EU accelerates" and that economic recovery is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year.
As a result of the above, the fight between the bulls and the bears on EUR/USD has been going on with varying success all week. Strong inflationary expectations continue to weigh on the dollar. President Joe Biden continues to flood the economy with colossal amounts of money. Following the $1.9 trillion stimulus already approved by Congress, $2.25 trillion in infrastructure development and $1.8 trillion in social support are awaiting their turn. As a result of such steps by the US administration, the dollar went down and the EUR/USD pair renewed its two-month high on Thursday, April 29, reaching 1.2150.
However, thanks to not the most impressive macro statistics from the EU, the European currency nevertheless lost ground on Friday. An additional impetus to the dollar was given by the auction for the placement of treasury bonds on Friday evening, April 30. The US Treasury Department sold $130.6 billion worth of debt securities there. This withdrawal of liquidity from the financial system provided additional support to the American currency. As a result, the pair completed the five-day period significantly below the start of the week, at the level of 1.2020;

- GBP/USD. When providing last week's forecast for the pair, 45% of experts voted for its move north, 35% to the south and the remaining 20% to the east.
As expected by most of them (45%), the pound was strengthening its positions the first four days, and investors started to hope that the GBP/USD pair would break through the 1.4000 level again and return to steady growth, as it had been since the end of March 2020 until the end of February 2021 However, having reached 1.3975, its movement stalled, the bearish pressure intensified, and it collapsed downward at the very end of the week, as 35% of analysts had expected. Pushed by the results of the auction held by the US Treasury, the pair reached the local bottom at the 1.3800 horizon. This was followed by a couple of small bounces and a finish at 1.3810, which can be considered the Pivot Point of the last 9 weeks. So, those 20% of experts who voted for the sideways trend of the pair were also satisfied;

- USD/JPY. It has already been said that the yield on US government bonds has been the key indicator for this pair. It was growing over the past week. The dollar grew along with it against the yen. As a result, the USD/JPY pair rose above the level of 109.00 and, having added 145 points, completed the trading session at 109.30;

- cryptocurrencies. When making a forecast seven days ago, we wrote that the main task of the bulls last week would be to keep the BTC/USD pair in the $ 50,000 area. And, they succeeded, though with difficulty. Despite the fact that the quotes fell to $47,000 on April 25, they managed to rise again to the $50,000-55,000 zone. Investors and speculators began to actively acquire coins at the bottom, counting on further profits. And if the total capitalization of the crypto market was at the level of $1.750 trillion on April 26, it had already reached $2.110 trillion on the last day of the month.
Although not much, the news background helped the bulls. So, the news portal Coin Desk reported that the American financial giant JPMorgan had finally decided to launch a fund focused on BTC. Reporters found out that this bitcoin fund will start operating this summer.
The launch of Bitcoin-ETF could serve as another support factor. However, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) postponed its decision on the VanEck application until June. At the moment, a total of 10 applications for launching ETFs have been submitted, and the regulator decided that it needs more time to study them.
So, the main cryptocurrency stayed in the area around $50,000. But it was never able to rise above the 50-day moving average, which has served as sustained support for the BTC/USD pair since October 2020. As the quotes approach this line, which has now become resistance, the activity of buyers begins to fall sharply. And this is a rather alarming sign for investors: the market is in thought, which is confirmed by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index located in the heart of the neutral zone: at the level of 51 points.
We have repeatedly said that in such a situation of uncertainty with the reference cryptocurrency, many investors are turning their attention to altcoins. Bitcoin continues to lose ground. If its share in the total capitalization was 72.65% on January 2, and 50.70% on April 23, then it fell even lower by the end of the month, reaching the level lowest since July 2018: 47.87%.
On the other hand, the attractiveness of Ethereum is constantly growing. CoinMetrics calculates that the hashrate in the Ethereum network has grown by 89% over the past 100 days. And the ETH/USD pair, unlike Bitcoin, continues to update historical highs over and over again, rising to a height of $2,790 on April 29.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The weakening of the dollar, which has become almost the main safe haven asset during the pandemic, is facilitated by the growth of inflation expectations, which exceeded 2.4% and reached a high since 2013. The huge financial injections should lead to a record growth in US GDP, which, accordingly, entails an increase in risk sentiment and investors' attraction to the stock market. According to Dow Jones Market Data, the S&P500 rose 11% during Joe Biden's first 100 days as President of the United States. This was the best result since President Franklin Roosevelt in 1933, and on average, since 1929, stock indices grew by 3.2% annually.
On the other hand, being the most powerful in the world, the US economy will pull up with it the economies of other countries, leveling the gap in the speed of their recovery. The dollar should also be helped by an increase in yields on US Treasury bonds.
So far, giving a forecast for the coming week, 60% of experts expect that the EUR/USD pair will try to go up again. The nearest resistance is 1.2055 and 1.2100, the target is to reach the April 29 high of 1.2150. 70% of oscillators and 75% of trend indicators on D1 agree with this forecast. The remaining 30% of the oscillators are colored neutral grey.
When moving from a weekly to a monthly forecast, the opinion of experts changes radically. Here, 75% of them are waiting for the dollar to strengthen and the pair to drop to the 1.1900 zone, and then another 100 points lower. The target of the bears is to update the March 31 low of 1.1704.
Graphical analysis on D1 indicates the movement of the pair in the trading range of 1.1945-1.2150. At the same time, according to its readings on H4, the pair first faces a decline to the lower border of this channel, and then a rebound upward.
As for the events of the coming week, one should note the publication of ISM business activity data in manufacturing (May 3) and private (May 5) sectors of the United States. We are also waiting for US employment data: the ADP report will be released on Wednesday May 5, and the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP) will be known on Friday May 7.
The European consumer market is likely to delight investors on May 3 and 6. The fall in retail sales in Germany is forecast to narrow from -9.0% to -3.15%. Retail sales in the Eurozone as a whole may, according to forecasts, grow from -2.9% to + 9.4%;

- GBP/USD. The main event for the British currency will be the meeting of the Bank of England on Thursday, May 6, which will be devoted to monetary policy. The interest rate is most likely to remain unchanged at 0.1%. As for QE, the volume of purchases of government bonds may be reduced from ?895 to 875 billion. If this happens, the market will receive a signal about the intention of the British regulator to start tightening its policy.
The bank may also revise its forecasts regarding the speed of economic recovery in the country. There are many reasons for this. Thus, unemployment in Great Britain decreased by 0.1% in the first quarter, from 5.0% to 4.9%. Almost 30 million people have already been vaccinated in the country, of whom more than 2.5 million received two doses of vaccines against COVID-19. Some of the quarantine restrictions have been removed. And all these are positive factors for the pound, which may push the GBP/USD pair up again. This is confirmed by the forecasts of graphical analysis on H4 and D1.
As for the readings of technical indicators, they look rather indistinct on D1 due to the sideways movement of recent weeks. On H4, naturally, most are painted red, although 25% of oscillators signal the pair is oversold.
As for the experts, 60% expect the pair to grow at least to the level of 1.4000. In case it manages to break through it, the next target is 1.4240. The nearest resistance levels are 1.3860, 1.3925 and 1.3975.
The remaining 40% of analysts side with the bears. The main support is in the zone 1.3670-1.3700, then - 1.3600;

- USD/JPY. The experts' opinion coincides completely with what was expressed a week earlier. 70% of them believe that the pair will go south again, below the horizon at 109.00. The next supports are 108.40 and 107.45. The remaining 30% of analysts expect the pair to continue to rise. Resistance is at 110.00, the target is to rise another 100 pips to 111.00.
As for the indicators, 75% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on H4, and, respectively, 70% and 95% on D1 are coloured green. The remaining oscillators signal that the pair is overbought. Graphical analysis on both time frames indicates a fall of the pair to the level of 107.45;

- cryptocurrencies. So, as it was said in the first part of the review, the BTC/USD pair did not manage to break above the 50-day moving average on the last day of April. And this looks like a wake-up call for investors. Especially because the fall below this line happened for the first time since the beginning of October last year, when the pair just broke the $10,000 level.
The Bitcoin Dominance Index also fell below 50%, which, attracting institutions, dragged the entire crypto market up with it like a locomotive.
Taken together, both of these factors, according to a number of analysts, strongly resemble the situation in January 2018, which marked the beginning of a protracted crypto winter.
But, along with pessimists, the voices of optimists are usually heard. Thus, the creator of the stock-to-flow model, a popular cryptocurrency analyst known as PlanB, believes that the current decline in bitcoin is quite normal and expected, and only confirms the bullish trend. The analyst stressed that one should not expect constant growth, sometimes pullbacks should also occur: “Nothing grows without pullbacks. Bitcoin has already been growing for 6 months in a row. This is similar to the mid-cycle correction we saw in 2013 and 2017.”
PlanB noted that he even “calmed down to some extent”: the market was too overheated, and now a small “cooling” phase awaits it. In addition, the rate of the first cryptocurrency turned out to be lower currently than the expectations of the S2F model, which means it may well continue to grow.
Dan Morehead, CEO of venture capital firm Pantera Capital, is also positive. According to the businessman, BTC is doomed to further growth, as more and more investors begin to understand that storing capital in cryptocurrency is much more efficient than in traditional instruments.
According to the calculations by the head of Pantera Capital, the value of BTC adds $200 every time 1 million new users register on its network. If such dynamics persist, the price of cryptocurrency in 2022 will approach or even exceed the $200,000 mark.
According to Dan Morehead, the spread of bitcoin is a result of, among other things, the growth in the number of smartphone users. There are now about 3.5 billion people in the world who own such devices, making bitcoin available anywhere and at any time.

NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

New NordFX Savings Account: Investment Income Plus Trading Income​

The new Savings Account from NordFX represents a unique know-how developed by the company's specialists, based on DeFi technology. This account allows you not only to receive passive income up to 30% per annum, but also to increase your profits through operations in the financial markets. It is just enough to take a trade loan at only 3%.

DeFi (from the English "Decentralized financing") is a term for special applications in cryptocurrency or blockchain, aimed at eliminating financial intermediaries. It is these advantages of DeFi that have formed the basis of the innovative new NordFX Savings Account, allowing its owners to generate profits many times higher than interest on bank deposits. Passive income on their investments is currently about 30% per annum and may vary.

The world's most popular stablecoin, Tether (USDT), the rate of which is secured by real US dollars in a ratio of 1:1, is used as the account currency. The minimum deposit amount for this account is equal to $500. In addition to USDT, deposits are also allowed with USDC and DAI stablecoins, which will be automatically converted to USDT. Withdrawals are also possible in USDT.

The undoubted advantage of this account is the ability to take a trade loan secured by the funds placed in it. The interest on the loan is only 3% per annum and is deducted from the investment income. The loan funds are instantly credited to the balance of the Trader's Cabinet and can be used for trading on terms similar to those of a Zero account.

This feature gives account holders the opportunity to maximize returns on their investments through trading in financial markets.

Investment income is credited to the Savings Account on a daily basis and can be withdrawn at any time without restrictions.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews

- Experts at JPMorgan believe that Ethereum may become more efficient than Bitcoin in the future. Many DeFi application developers are already using the Ethereum blockchain more than the main net.
Experts note that this altcoin is more resistant to external factors. Bitcoin, on the other hand, reacts to almost every major fluctuation in the market, which leads to its correction straight away. Investors in the main cryptocurrency are not very worried about minor jumps, however, with a long negative trend, they start to withdraw assets quickly. During the recent correction, it was Bitcoin that lost most of its capitalization.
“Bitcoin, on the other hand, is very narrow in its application, which is evident from a variety of factors. It is Most often used as an asset for investment. All new major projects are developed on the basis of Ethereum. It has more liquidity, and ETH has recently substantially increased its position in the spot market. Another advantage of Ethereum is its rather large and developed ecosystem,” JPMorgan analysts note.

- Founded in 1744, Sotheby's will auction the work of street art genius Banksy, Love is in the Air. They plan to accept bets in US dollars, bitcoins and ethereums. The work has been initially estimated at $3-5 million. The auction will take place on May 12 and will be the first experience for Sotheby's in selling works of art for cryptocurrency.

- S&P Dow Jones Indices, a division of US financial data provider S&P Global, has launched indices based on Bitcoin, Ethereum and a basket of these cryptocurrencies. The S&P Bitcoin Index received the ticker SPBTC, the S&P Ethereum Index - SPETH, which tracks the dynamics of these two assets, the S&P Crypto Mega Cap Index - SPCMC.
Indices are calculated in points, not in US dollars. According to a S&P spokesman, instead of the actual cost, they reflect price changes, and should compete with counterparts from Bloomberg and Galaxy.
The data is calculated on weekdays and will be available by subscription for service customers. Rebalancing is carried out on a quarterly basis.

- Back in May 2019, crypto enthusiasts noticed an advertisement for the American online trading giant eBay with the words “Virtual Currency. It's happening on eBay. " Later, representatives of the site denied rumors about adding support for cryptocurrencies. And now, two years later, on CNBC, the head of the company, Jamie Iannone, said that eBay is still considering the possibility of accepting payments in digital assets.

- Renowned crypto trader and strategist Mikael van de Poppe has shared a bold prediction for the future of bitcoin. “I am quite confident that we are in a bullish cycle and it is really difficult to rely on a bear market, especially given the inflation of the US dollar,” he said.
“Given the fact that institutional money is flowing in, bitcoin is becoming more widespread. This means that there is now a large demand and a relatively small supply, which will lead to an increase in the price, continues Van de Poppe. - Will Bitcoin get to $300,000 or $500,000? I think so. If we carry out simple calculations, the peak of the BTC rate should be $500,000. Given the data on the top of the cycle, it can be assumed that the average rate will be above $250,000. And it can get to $350,000 - $450,000 within a year.”
“But besides, we will have long sideways,” added the specialist.

- Ethereum continues to rise in price amid the growing popularity of decentralized finance (DeFi) applications designed to replace banks and insurance companies. The price of the leading altcoin surpassed $3,000 on May 3, for the first time in history. As a result, the fortune of Ethereum creator Vitaly Buterin, who owns 333,520 coins, reached $1.09 billion.
Thus, 27-year-old Buterin has become the youngest billionaire in the world who made his fortune on cryptocurrency. His fortune has grown almost 25 times since the beginning of 2020, according to Forbes.

- A startup employee told a story about how the employer demanded that the salary paid in cryptocurrency be returned after its rate increased by 700%.
According to him, the CEO of the company offered him a settlement in cryptocurrency at the signing of the contract in the spring of 2020. The contract contained a clause that the employer could have him being paid in dollars, but the employee refused to do so.
And just recently, he received a message from his employer demanding the return of all the cryptocurrency. “In return, you can bill the company for hours worked in dollars,” the letter read.
The MarketWatch portal, on which the story was published, advised him not to return the cryptocurrency, since the employer would hardly want to pay extra if the rate collapsed.
Although the author does not specify the name of the cryptocurrency, Ethereum fits the description, the rate of which has grown by 790% since August 1.

- Bitcoin is less volatile than stocks of companies such as Apple and Tesla, said the head of the cryptocurrency exchange Binance Changpeng Zhao in an interview with Bloomberg TV. According to Zhao, significant price fluctuations are observed not only in the cryptocurrency, but also in the stock market. At the same time, Bitcoin is less volatile than shares of companies with comparable market capitalization.
According to him, “profit hunters” are often to blame for this. They do not analyze the market but invest money in assets against the backdrop of positive news. “There are always more people driven by herd instinct than those who really do serious research. When negative news appears, they leave the market, when positive news appears, they try to enter again. This causes a lot of volatility,” explained the CEO of Binance.
Earlier, Zhao advised traders who are stressed by every price drop to change their strategy to buy and hold. In his opinion, this is not the best recommendation for professionals, but good advice for beginners.

- Bitcoin is disgusting and contrary to the interests of civilization, said fellow Warren Buffett, 97-year-old billionaire Charles Munger. “Of course, I hate Bitcoin's success. I do not welcome currency, which is created out of thin air and is so useful for kidnappers and extortionists,” Munger emphasized.
At the same time, another critic of cryptocurrency, billionaire Warren Buffett, this time declined to comment on Bitcoin. The legendary investor emphasized that digital money is now supported by "hundreds of thousands against two people." “We have a choice: to make 400 thousand people angry and upset, or to make two happy,” he noted ironically.

- American financial services giant Mastercard has presented the results of its research conducted in 18 countries in various regions of the world. According to its data, 40% of consumers plan to use crypto assets for their payments next year. Among millennials, the figure is even higher, reaching 67%.


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[Stan NordFX]

NordFX Summed Up April Results: TOP 3 Most Successful Traders and IB-Partners​

NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in April 2021. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

The maximum profit in April was received by a client from Malaysia, account No. 1208XXX, whose profit amounted to 20,590 USD. Whereas in previous months, when trading cryptocurrencies, NordFX traders profited mainly from bitcoin transactions, now Bitcoin SV, a coin that appeared as a result of the Bitcoin Cash hardfork, has entered the business. In addition to the BSV/USD pair, transactions with the altcoin Dash (DSH/USD) also helped the Malaysian trader to become the leader. This reflects the trends of recent weeks, when transactions with some altcoins have become more profitable than transactions with the main cryptocurrency.

The second place on the podium is taken by a trader from Thailand, account No. 2009XXX, with a result of18,788 USD, obtained for CAD/JPY and EUR/GBP.

Trader from China, No.1286XXX, who is the third place by the month's results, also traded the Canadian dollar and the British pound. Their profit of 16,523 USD was obtained mainly for USD/CAD and GBP/USD pairs.

CopyTrading is the leader in passive investing services, with the NVI Venture Capital signal, which showed a yield of 193% in just one last week of April with the maximum drawdown of 41.5%. This result is, of course, impressive. However, this is a rather aggressive trading style, so subscribers should not forget about risk management.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest amount of commission, USD 11.714, was accrued to a partner from Sri Lanka, account No.1483xxx;
- next is a partner from Vietnam, account No.1401xxx, who received $6,339;
- and, finally, a partner from India, account No.1527xxx, who received $5.762 as a reward, closes the top three.

And summing up the results of the month, it should be reminded that traders have received another great opportunity to earn money. In April, the $100,000 superlottery started, in which 100 cash prizes of $500, $1,000, $2,500 each and a super prize of $20,000 will be drawn among NordFX clients.

It is very easy to take part in the lottery and get a chance to win one or even several of these prizes. All the details are available on the NordFX website.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.


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[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for May 10 - 14, 2021​

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. There has been a lot of talk for a long time about how quickly and how well the US economy is recovering. But the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, warned a week ago that everything is still quite fragile, and the acceleration of inflation is a temporary factor. Apparently, he already knew it then, and now everyone else knows it too: not everything is as rosy as it seemed.
The bulk of US macroeconomic indicators released last week are colored red. The ISM business activity index in the manufacturing sector is 60.7 instead of 65.0 as was forecasted. The ADP report on the employment rate in the private sector is 742K instead of the forecasted 800K. The ISM business activity index in the services sector is 62.7 instead of 64.3. And it is a complete disaster with such an important indicator as the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP): 770K was created in March, 978K was expected in April, but only 266K were actually created, that is, 3.7 times less than the forecast.
Of course, investors had plenty of time to cash in on the recovery of the U.S. economy. And now it seems that the time has come to switch to other regions and, first of all, to the European Union. Moreover, vaccination against coronavirus in Europe is becoming more widespread, EU member states are gradually lifting quarantine restrictions, and the economy is gaining momentum. Unlike the US, retail sales in the Eurozone showed convincing growth, rising from minus 1.5% in March to plus 12.0% in April. And this is against the forecast of 9.6%.
The above has put strong pressure on the dollar and contributed to the strengthening of the European currency. As a result, the forecast given by the majority of experts (60%) came true 100%: the EUR/USD pair went up again and renewed the six-week high on the evening of Friday, May 07, reaching the height of 1.2170. This was followed by a slight rebound and a finish at 1.2165;

- GBP/USD. The forecast has turned out to be absolutely correct in this case as well. This pair has been moving in a side channel 1.3670-1.4000 for 10 weeks. And the majority of experts had voted for the fact that, having rebounced off the central zone of this corridor, the pair would go up and reach its upper border. This is what actually happened. Having started on Monday at 1.3810, the pair reached the height of 1.4000 on Friday, not far from where, at 1.3990, it finished the working week;

- USD/JPY. When making a forecast for the past week, 70% of analysts had pointed to the south. In their opinion, the pair should have dropped below the horizon of 109.00, and the level of 108.40 was called as a support. And that is what happened. True, the bulls made an attempt to repeat the success of a week ago on Monday, but their strength dried up quickly. The pair turned down, reached the local bottom at 108.35 on Friday 07 May, and then put the last chord at 108.60;

- cryptocurrencies. "Bitcoin is disgusting and contrary to the interests of civilization", said Warren Buffett's fellow, 97-year-old billionaire Charles Munger. “Of course, I hate bitcoin's success. I do not welcome currency, which is created out of thin air and is so useful for kidnappers and extortionists,” Munger emphasized.
The 97-year-old investor is now likely be attributed not only to the “sharks” of Wall Street, but also to the “dinosaurs.” Virtual assets go beyond their perception of the world: after all, they are accustomed to dealing with currencies and securities, which have a very real, and not fictitious, basis. Nevertheless, the clink of digital gold is already heard in almost every financial centre on the planet. Financial data provider S&P Dow Jones Indices has even launched indices based on Bitcoin, Ethereum and on the basket with these cryptocurrencies. The S&P Bitcoin Index received the ticker SPBTC, the S&P Ethereum Index - SPETH, and the S&P Crypto Mega Cap Index which tracks the dynamics of these two assets, - SPCMC.
The adoption of cryptocurrencies is growing not only among large institutional investors, but also among the general population. The American financial services giant Mastercard has presented the results of its research conducted in 18 countries in various regions of the world. According to its data, 40% of consumers plan to use crypto assets for their payments next year. Among millennials, the figure is even higher, reaching 67%.
It would seem that all of the above should only benefit digital currencies. But it is not so. Bitcoin is beginning to increasingly correlate with traditional markets. And after bitcoin, altcoins also fall into this bundle. Thus, the crypto market, as well as the stock market, is now heavily dependent on the policies pursued by the White House and the U.S. Federal Reserve. And if fiscal stimulus programs (QE) are cut, the money stream fueling the cryptocurrency market could dry up quickly enough.
Until this happens, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is showing smooth growth. It grew from $2.110 trillion to $2.375 trillion, that is, by 12.56%, over the past week. At the same time, the capitalization of the altcoin market showed an increase of more than 20%. Bitcoin continues to lose ground. Its Dominance Index was 72.65% on January 2; it reached the level lowest since July 2018, 47.87%, on April 30, but now, over the past seven days, it fell even lower, to 44.24%.
These numbers indicate that the interests of many investors are now focused not on the main cryptocurrency, but on altcoins, which bring significantly higher returns.
The BTC/USD pair made unsuccessful attempts to test $60,000 again over the past week. However, each dash to the north is followed by a rollback to the south. The pair even fell to the level of $52,950 on May 05. But Ethereum, is rewriting one historical maximum after another in the wake of the growing popularity of the DeFi sector, as well as on the eve of the transition to ETH 2.0. Thus, this coin has shown an increase of more than 80% over the past three weeks. And it made its creator, 27-year-old Vitaly Buterin, the youngest billionaire in the world who made his fortune on cryptocurrency. As noted by Forbes, Buterin's fortune has grown by almost 25 times early 2020.
Litecoin keeps pace with Ethereum. We pointed out significant upside potential for this coin back at the beginning of the year. The argument was that, unlike bitcoin, which had already renewed its all-time high, Litecoin was still very far from the $371 high it reached in December 2017. And finally, the LTC/USD pair was again at this top this week, on May 07, showing an increase of 75% just in the last 10 days.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. So, the market is again dominated by buyers of shares and sellers of the dollar. As we already mentioned, the weakening of the dollar, which has become almost the main safe haven asset during the pandemic, is facilitated by the growth of inflation expectations, which exceeded 2.4% and reached a high since 2013. The huge financial injections should lead to a record growth in US GDP, which, accordingly, entails an increase in risk sentiment and investors' attraction to the stock market. S&P500 and Dow Jones indices broke their own records again. The former reached the level of 4,238, the latter - 34,732 points. The euro grew together with them, reaching the height of 1.2170.
However, too fast growth of stock indices and a weakening dollar may induce the US Federal Reserve officials to curtail fiscal stimulus programs quicker. Thus, according to Robert Kaplan, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, imbalances in financial markets can lead to the fact that it would be better to raise the issues of folding QE sooner rather than later. Otherwise, the U.S. financial system could be under stress.
As for the opinion of experts for the near future, 60% of them, together with the graphical analysis on D1, expect the correction of the EUR/USD pair to a strong support in the area of 1.2000, and in the event of its breakout, a fall another 100 points lower. The nearest support is 1.2055.
The remaining 40% of analysts, together with the graphical analysis on H4, believe that the pair's uptrend will continue. The nearest target is the February high at 1.2245, the next target is to reach the January 06 high at 1.2350.
The technical analysis readings are as follows: 100% of the trend indicators and 75% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 are colored green at the time of writing this review (Friday night May 07). The remaining 25% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought.
Among the events of the coming week (and there are not so many of them), the publication of data on the US consumer market on Wednesday May 12 and Friday May 14 should be noted. Data on the consumer market in Germany is also due out on May 12;

- GBP/USD. The forecast for this pair for the coming week is exactly the opposite of the previous one. If the majority of experts voted for the rise of the pair from the central part of the 1.3670-1.4000 channel to its upper border a week ago, now 70% of analysts, along with graphical analysis, predict it will return back to its center at 1.3800. The decision of the Bank of England, which kept interest rates and the volume of the quantitative easing (QE) programme unchanged at its May 06 meeting, should contribute to this.
True, the regulator has reduced the rate of asset buybacks and is optimistic about the rate of economic recovery. But demand for the pound is being held back by the decision to hold interest rates until there are clear signs of a recovery in output and an inflation rate of 2%. The only one who voted to cut QE volumes was the chief economist of the Bank of England, Andrew Haldane. But his vote doesn't mean much as he retires in a month.
Only 30% of experts believe that the GBP/USD pair will be able to break out of the 10-week trading range and rise above the level of 1.4000. In this case, it will rush to the February 24 high of 1.4240, and the resistance levels on its way will be the levels of 1.4085 and 1.4180.
As for technical analysis, its readings are very similar to those for the EUR/USD pair: 100% of the trend indicators and 85% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 point north. The remaining 15% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought.
Looking at the economic calendar for the coming week, I recall the movie "The King's Speech", dedicated to the British monarch George VI. It is just that it will the speech ofthe head of the Bank of England, and it will be a whole series, since Andrew Bailey will give speeches on May 11, 12, and 13. However, investors are unlikely to hear anything from him that could seriously affect their mood. Of greater interest are the UK GDP and consumer market data, which will be published on Wednesday May 12;

- USD/JPY. The indicator readings on both time frames look quite chaotic. Only the trend indicators on H4 clearly point to the south: 85% is colored red here. Graphical analysis depicts a gradual decrease in volatility and consolidation of the pair in the zone 108.35-108.50. But 70% of analysts side with the bears for the third week in a row. Supports are at levels 108.40 and 107.85, the target is 107.45. ¬
The remaining 30% side with the bulls, they expect that the pair will try again to rise above the resistance of 109.00 and gain a foothold in the zone 109.00-109.65;

- cryptocurrencies. As mentioned in the first part of the review, many investors have shifted their attention from the main cryptocurrency to the altcoin market. The BTC/USD pair has not yet managed to break above the 50-day moving average and rise above $60,000. But is this a harbinger of a new crypto winter?
If BTC collapses following the domino effect, other coins may follow. But so far, hopes for the growth of the main cryptocurrency are quite real. Despite the fact that the index of its dominance has decreased from 72.65% to 44.24% since the beginning of the year, its trading volumes are quite high: about $70 billion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, although has reached the level of "greed", 64 points, but is still far from being overbought.
In the medium term, the fact that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) postpones decisions on Bitcoin-ETFs may play against the main cryptocurrency. But many experts are still optimistic. Thus, renowned crypto trader and strategist Mikael van de Poppe has shared a bold prediction for the future of bitcoin. “I am quite confident that we are in a bullish cycle and it is really difficult to rely on a bear market, especially given the inflation of the US dollar,” he said.
“Given the fact that institutional money is flowing in, bitcoin is becoming more widespread. This means that there is now a large demand and a relatively small supply, which will lead to an increase in the price, continues Van de Poppe. - Will Bitcoin get to $300,000 or $500,000? I think so. If we carry out simple calculations, the peak of the BTC rate should be $500,000. Given the data on the top of the cycle, it can be assumed that the average rate will be above $250,000. And it can get to $350,000 - $450,000 within a year.” “But besides, we will have long sideways,” added the specialist cautiously.
Experts at JPMorgan believe that Ethereum may become even more efficient than Bitcoin in the future. They note that this altcoin is more resistant to external factors. Bitcoin, on the other hand, reacts to almost every major fluctuation in the market, which leads to its correction straight away. With a long negative trend, BTC investors begin to withdraw assets quickly.
According to JPMorgan analysts, “Bitcoin is very narrow in its application, which is evident from a variety of factors. It is most often used as an asset for investment. All new major projects are developed on the basis of Ethereum. It has more liquidity. ETH has recently substantially increased its position in the spot market as well. Another advantage of Ethereum is its rather large and developed ecosystem,” they note.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews

- SpaceX Corporation has entered into a partnership with Dogecoin developers. The launch of the new satellite will be fully paid in this cryptocurrency. The satellite itself in the form of a cube will be delivered to the Moon as part of the Falcon 9 mission in early 2022.
SpaceX Vice President Tom Ochinero said the collaboration "will demonstrate the use of cryptocurrency outside of Earth orbit and lay the foundation for interplanetary commerce." The information was also confirmed by Elon Musk, who has recently received the nickname "dogefather" for his love for this meme cryptocurrency.

- Morgan Creek Capital CEO Mark Yusko believes that bitcoin could reach the value of $250,000 within five years. According to the expert, the rapid adoption of the main cryptocurrency will resemble the popularization of Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google. Also, the growth in the value of bitcoin may be affected by the situation in the fiat market, which is now going through hard times.
“At one time, many large companies increased their capitalization to a trillion dollars in 10-20 years. The main cryptocurrency managed to do this much faster. Bitcoin is likely to become the main competitor to gold within a few years, although it is already, says Yusko. - I do not think that cryptocurrencies will start to sink sharply in the near future. The market has many investors already who will not leave it until the last minute. "
“However, not all assets are useful and promising,” the financier continued. - Dogecoin, for example, is a joke and a marketing thing for me. It is naturl that it is rapidly becoming more expensive after references from Elon Musk. I think this can happen with any coin, even if it has no real value."

- Scammers took advantage of the hype surrounding Elon Musk's performance on Saturday Night Live (SNL) to lure over $100,000 in cryptocurrency from users. According to the MalwareHunterTeam project team, the scammers have created more than 30 fake Tesla, SpaceX and SNL accounts. Some of them received a verification mark. To receive a "reward", the attackers asked users to send a small amount of bitcoins, Ethereum, or Dogecoin to their wallets. MalwareHunterTeam noted that this type of scam has been around for a long time, but Twitter still hasn't solved the problem.

- As for Elon Musk himself, he urged to invest in digital assets with caution. “Digital assets continue to be promising. But it is possible that the market will return to bearish sentiments at any moment. At one time, I thought that investing in cryptocurrencies was a dubious business, but everything has changed over the years,” Musk said. At the same time, the billionaire noted that Tesla bought bitcoins at the beginning of the year for the so-called "free funds", which do not affect the company's activities in any way.

- According to the BBC, the US authorities have arrested a resident of Tennessee, suspected of organizing the contract murder of his wife. According to British media reports, a customer unknown at that time told the killer the make of the car, as well as the date and time when the woman would take the pet to the veterinarian. The payment for the murder was done in bitcoins.
"The FBI headquarters provided blockchain analysis of the transaction and was able to determine that the wallets of the Coinbase crypto exchange were used for payment," the court record says. The exchange, at the request of the authorities, revealed not only the transactions history, but also the name of the owner of the wallets: it was the husband of the alleged victim. He used his home computer and personal bank accounts to buy cryptocurrency. The man was arrested and faces up to 10 years in prison. The identity of the killer has not yet been established.

- Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg also continues to influence cryptocurrency quotes; he shared a photo of two goats named Max and Bitcoin. Social media users saw a secret message in this. Some of the commentators called him Bitcoin MAXimalist. And economist Alex Kruger said that the photo of the goats is a great reason for another pump of the first cryptocurrency. “This is quite in the spirit of 2021. If the market was growing when Elon Musk tweeted about Bitcoin, then surely it should grow when Zuk calls the goats Max and Bitcoin, ”he said and... he was wrong. The price of bitcoin dropped by about $5,000 after the post was published.

- Another interesting event concerning Zukreberg took place in the capital of Russia. The Moscow court officially declared a citizen Mark Elliot Zuckerberg bankrupt. The reason for the litigation was his debt to two Russian banks in the amount of 669 thousand rubles (about $9,000).
This news could become a worldwide sensation. But the fact is that this citizen's name was Yuri Shishlyannikov until December 2018. He was born in Ukraine, and after moving to Russia, he changed his first and last name to Mark Zuckerberg, which is quite easy to do under Russian law.

- The attackers spread an interview allegedly given by Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen to the Kronen Zeitung. He "talks" about his investments in cryptocurrencies there and allegedly admits that he easily earns tens of thousands of euros a day.
According to the Watchlist Internet Internet fraud tracking service, under the guise of an interview with the Austrian President, scammers are promoting the Bitcoin Era, Bitcoin Prime and Crypto Revolt cryptocurrency trading platforms. To start trading, you need to deposit a minimum amount of €250. Then some consultants contact the investors, and the first profit is displayed on the accounts. This motivates people to invest more. However, neither deposits nor possible profits are paid out to users, Watchlist Internet stresses.

- Analysts of the research service Whalemap presented an analysis of the price dynamics of the main cryptocurrency. According to their findings, large investors, including classic companies from the world of finance, continue to buy bitcoins actively. The largest buying volumes were recorded when the price of the coin was in the range from $54,000 to $58,000.
Whalemap believes that the $52,000 price level represents the point below which it will be difficult for the cryptocurrency to leave for a long time. Moreover, as analysts predict, bitcoin can gain a foothold above $60,000 in the foreseeable future.

- PlanB, the author of the famous S2FX prediction model for the price of bitcoin, agrees that the coin will continue to rise in price. That is why he replenished his crypto wallet by purchasing BTC on May 8 at the rate of $58,776.
Among the arguments in favor of further growth in the price of bitcoin is the growth of reserves of crypto exchanges in dollar stablecoins, which has now reached an absolute maximum of $11.5 billion. Interest in bitcoin is also observed on the part of miners: the hash rate for this cryptocurrency has once again turned out to be at levels that are close to absolute highs.

- Miami Mayor Francis Suarez said at the Ethereal virtual summit that he bought Bitcoin and Ethereum in early March. He made the decision after the country's Senate approved the $1.9 trillion economic bailout plan. It is noteworthy that the United States plan to adopt another aid package, due to the high level of unemployment.
According to Suarez, people will not want to store currency in USD, so cryptocurrencies will continue to grow. The official added that bitcoin has reached a level of acceptance too high to fall under a regulatory ban.
Suarez has previously said he is exploring the possibility of transferring some of Miami's city budget reserves into digital gold.

- The police detained two suspects of fraud in a Russian small town under the pretext of selling mining equipment. According to the investigation, the detainees posted an advertisement on the Internet about the sale of the mining farm. One of the villagers responded and transferred 1,000 rubles (about $13) as an advance. After the attackers sent a photo of the package, the future crypto-miner sent them the remaining amount. However, taking the parcel from the post office, he found two plastic water bottles and an old fire extinguisher in it, hardly suitable for cryptocurrency mining. It should be noted that this is not the first case of selling counterfeit equipment to those who wish to make money in this way.


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https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for May 17 - 21, 2021​

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. As predicted by most experts (60%), the first half of the week benefited the dollar, strengthening it and dropping the EUR/USD pair to support 1.2050. The US inflation report, released on Wednesday May 12, pointed to an impressive rise in April and hit the stock market hard. The consumer price index climbed 0.8%, the strongest monthly gain since 2009. In annual terms, inflation rose by 4.2% versus 2.6% between March 2020 and March 2021 and showed the strongest acceleration since 2008.
Thanks to this jump, rumors about the possible curtailment of fiscal stimulus programs and an increase in the interest rate on USD began to circulate in the market again.
Risk appetite began to fall, the S&P500 and Dow Jones stock indices went down, and the yield on 10-year US Treasuries moved up.
However, the Fed knows how to restore order in the markets. The regulator explained that this jump in inflation and consumer prices is a temporary phenomenon and is caused in first place by a surge in prices for transport services and used cars. Therefore, the FRS does not intend to either curtail QE programs or raise the interest rate due to the growth of one specific sector of the economy.
The situation turned 180 degrees after such explanations. Trading volumes in the stock markets rose again, reaching the highest values over the past two and a half months. And the European currency won back about 100 points from the dollar, finishing at 1.2143;

- GBP/USD. 100% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators were pointing north last week. But only 30% of experts agreed that the pair, having broken through the upper border of the channel 1.3670-1.4000, would be able to reach the resistance of 1.4085. But it is them who turned out to be right: - the week's high was recorded on Tuesday, March 11 at 1.4165. The next day, the US inflation report pushed the pair down to the 1.4000 level, which turned from resistance to support. The fall was facilitated by profit-taking on the pound after reaching two-month highs. Then a rebound followed, and the pair completed the five-day period at 1.4096;

- USD/JPY. The forecast for this pair turned out to be quite accurate. Demonstrating an inverse correlation with the DXY dollar index, the yen strengthened on Tuesday May 11, as predicted by 70% of experts, reaching support at 108.35. Then the pair met the expectations of the remaining 30% of analysts and, breaking through the resistance of 109.00, reached a high at 109.78. The last chord of the week sounded at 109.35.

- cryptocurrencies. It seems that the crypto market influencers are only busy trying to destroy it in recent days.
Crypto billionaire Vitalik Buterin knocked Dogecoin clone quotes by an average of 50%. The creators of the meme currencies Shiba Inu, Akita Inu and Dogelon, currying favor with such an authority as Buterin, sent him their coins as a gift, hoping that he would not spend them and give them flattering reviews. However, the creator of Ethereum sent 50 trillion Shiba Inu ($1.2 billion at the time of the transaction) to a fund to help India fight COVID, and donated half of Akita Inu tokens ($ 431 million) on the Gitcoin platform. As a result, all these meme currencies lost about half of their value in just one day.
Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg also distinguished himself, who shared a photo of two goats, calling one of them Bitcoin. Social media users saw a secret message in this. And some even took offense, deciding that Zuckerberg compared the holders of the main cryptocurrency with these animals. What the billionaire really meant remains a mystery. The price of bitcoin dropped by about $5,000 after the post was published.
However, it was Elon Musk who delivered the biggest blow to the market with his tweet. He expressed concern about "the growing consumption of fossil fuels for mining and transactions on the bitcoin network" on Wednesday and announced that Tesla would no longer accept the cryptocurrency as payment for its cars. The market reacted to this statement with a crushing collapse. In just a few hours, the BTC/USD pair fell by almost 20%, reaching a strong medium-term support level in the $46,600-47,000 zone. Perhaps it would have broken through it too, but the panic was somewhat lowered by Musk's words that Tesla would not sell the previously acquired bitcoin tokens.
Recall that BTC quotes jumped 22% just three months ago on the news that Tesla had invested $1.5 billion in bitcoin and was ready to accept this cryptocurrency as a means of payment. The total capitalization of the crypto market grew more than twice from that moment until May 12: from $1.180 trillion to $2.556 trillion. And now it lost about $437 billion on May 12 and 13. True, the situation began to gradually stabilize by Friday evening, the market grew by $210 billion, and the BTC/USD pair rose to $50,000.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell from 64 to 24 points over the week and is now in the “Fear” zone. According to the index developers, one can think about opening long positions at such a moment. But if you do this, then you should be extremely careful, since, succumbing to panic, investors may continue to sell BTC.
We cited the opinion of JPMorgan Bank experts in our last review that “bitcoin reacts to almost every major fluctuation in the market, which is why its correction begins immediately. Ethereum, on the other hand, has better liquidity and greater resilience to external factors."
The past week has once again confirmed the correctness of this analysis. If bitcoin quotes were at the level of mid-February 2021 on Friday, May 14, Ethereum increased by almost 130% over the same period, having risen from $1,750 to $4,000.
The capitalization of the main altcoin continues to grow as well. The bitcoin dominance index has dropped from 72.65% to 40.55% since the beginning of the year. The share of Ethereum, on the contrary, has increased from 10.79% to 20.52% (maximum of the week). And if the trend continues, then these two cryptocurrencies can take equal positions in the market by the end of July.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Markets have come to their senses again, realizing that there is still a long way to the start of phasing out the US fiscal stimulus programs. Fed officials are constantly reiterating that it will take several more months of steady growth in employment and inflation before discussing a specific time frame for monetary tightening.
Analysts at BofA Merrill Lynch believe that the behavior of the EUR/USD pair is primarily influenced by what is happening in the United States. However, Europe should not be written off. The Eurozone looks much stronger today than it did a few months ago. Accelerating vaccination rates and reducing quarantine measures suggest an imminent recovery of its economy. The European Commission has already raised its GDP growth forecast for 2021 from 3.8% to 4.3%.
The loyalty of the US Federal Reserve to a soft monetary policy and calmness about the rise in inflation are putting serious pressure on the dollar. Investors will continue to look for how to protect their capital from depreciation due to inflation. The situation in the US stock markets is on the side of the bulls, which will contribute to the weakening of the American currency. However, at the same time we should not forget about the yield on US Treasury bonds, the growth of which, on the contrary, may provide serious support to the dollar.
If we talk about technical analysis, then here the complete advantage is on the side of the green. The growth of the EUR/USD pair is indicated by 70% of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators on H4, and, respectively, 85% and 100% on D1.
But the forecasts of experts do not look so unambiguous. 50% of them believe that the pair will hold out for some time in the side channel 1.1985-1.2180. At the same time, graphical analysis on both timeframes indicates that it will first fall to the lower bound of the trading range.
30% of analysts vote for the fact that this support will be broken, and the pair will drop another 100 points lower. The remaining 20% indicate to the north, to the zone 1.2250-1.2270.
As for the events of the coming week, it is worth noting the data on the GDP of the Eurozone for the first quarter of 2021, which will become known on Tuesday, May 18, as well as the speech of the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde on May 18 and 20. A portion of business activity data in Germany and the Eurozone which will be published on Friday 21 May is also of interest;

- GBP/USD. The oscillator readings on H4 look quite chaotic, but 85% of them point up onD1 as in the case of EUR/USD. The readings of trend indicators are also similar to the previous pair: 90% of trend indicators look north onH4 and 100% on D1.
Most experts expect the pair to start the week in the range of 1.4100-1.4200. However, according to 65% of analysts, supported by the graphical analysis on D1, it will be expected to return to support 1.4000, and in case of its breakdown, it will move to the central zone of the channel 1.3670-1.4000.
As for graphical analysis, it draws the movement in the lateral channel of 1.4000-1.4165 on H4, followed by a breakthrough to the high of February 24 of 1.4240.
As for the macroeconomic statistics of Great Britain, one can single out the publication of data on the labor market on May 18, the consumer market on May 19 and business activity in the services sector of this country on Friday May 20;

- USD/JPY. Most experts (65%) have sided with the bears for the fourth week in a row. Support is at the levels 109.00, 108.35, the target is 107.50. The remaining 35% of analysts expect that the pair will once again try to test the resistance of 111.00. The last time it managed to overcome it more than a year ago, in March 2020.
As for the oscillators on H4, 50% are painted green, 50% are neutral gray. On D1, the neutral position is taken by half as much, 25%. Among the trend indicators, 70% look to the north on H4, and 90% on D1. The graphical analysis readings outline a trading range of 108.85-110.35;

- cryptocurrencies. Let's start with technical analysis. The BTC/USD pair has now broken through the 50-day SMA and found a new pivot in the $50,000 zone, where the strong horizontal support and 100-day SMA intersect. However, according to a number of experts, this is where the formation of the right shoulder of the "head and shoulders" pattern is completed, which increases the chances of a breakdown downward, down to the level of $40,000. The next target for the bears is the lows of January 2021 in the $30,000 zone.
The position of Vitalik Buterin and Elon Musk, who seemed to have conspired to support Dogecoin at the peak of the main cryptocurrency, does not add optimism to BTC investors either. The first one clears a place for Dogecoin by dropping the quotes of its competing clones by 50%. The second - refuses to sell Tesla cars for bitcoin, but Musk's SpaceX enters into a partnership with Dogecoin developers by paying for the launch of a new satellite to the moon in this meme currency. Elon Musk even gets the nickname "dogefather."
However, it is clearly premature to say that all the authorities have turned their backs on the main cryptocurrency.
Thus, PlanB, the author of the famous S2FX prediction model for the price of bitcoin, thinks that the coin will continue to rise in price. That is why he replenished his crypto wallet by purchasing BTC on May 8 at the rate of $58,776. Among the arguments in favor of further growth in the price of bitcoin is the growth of reserves of crypto exchanges in dollar stablecoins, which has now reached an absolute maximum of $11.5 billion. Interest in bitcoin is also observed on the part of miners: the hash rate for this cryptocurrency has once again turned out to be at levels that are close to absolute highs.
Analysts of the Whalemap research service presented an analysis of the BTC price dynamics. According to their findings, large investors, including classic companies from the world of finance, continue to buy bitcoins actively. Basing on that, Whalemap believes that the $52,000 price level represents the point below which it will be difficult for the cryptocurrency to leave for a long time. Moreover, as analysts predict, bitcoin can gain a foothold above $60,000 in the foreseeable future.
As for long-term forecasts, Morgan Creek Capital CEO Mark Yusko believes that bitcoin could reach the value of $250,000 within five years. According to the expert, the rapid adoption of the main cryptocurrency will resemble the popularization of Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google. Also, the growth in the value of bitcoin may be affected by the situation in the fiat market, which is now going through hard times.
“At one time, many large companies increased their capitalization to a trillion dollars in 10-20 years. The main cryptocurrency managed to do this much faster. I do not think that cryptocurrencies will start to drawdown sharply in the near future,” Yusko believes. “The market already has a lot of investors who will not leave it until the last.”
At the same time, the head of Morgan Creek Capital did not fail to comment on the dogefather favorite. “However, not all assets are useful and promising,” the financier stated. - Dogecoin, for example, is a joke and a marketing thing for me. It is natural that it is rapidly becoming more expensive after references from Elon Musk. I think this can happen with any coin, even if it has no real value."
The name of the head of Tesla and SpaceX has already sounded many times in the current review - after all, it was his concern about the environment with mining bitcoin that collapsed the market. And it is not at all excluded that after some time bitcoin will split into two coins - "green" BTC, mined from renewable energy sources, and "red", the mining of which strikes a blow on the ecosystem of the planet. But, as it turned out, scammers have already invented a "mining farm" that does not consume any electricity at all.
Police detained two suspects in a Russian small town, who posted an advertisement on the Internet about the sale of a mining farm. One of the villagers responded and transferred 1,000 rubles (about $13) as an advance. After the attackers sent a photo of the package, the future crypto miner sent them the remaining amount. However, taking the parcel from the post office, he found two plastic water bottles and an old fire extinguisher in it. Of course, the chances of getting at least something on such a "farm" are below zero. But if suddenly someone succeeds, it will be the most environmentally friendly cryptocurrency in the world).

NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews

- The crypto market has already experienced three serious falls the in first two decades of May. The first two collapses were associated with Elon Musk. Tesla first announced that it would no longer sell its electric cars for Bitcoin. “We are concerned about the use of fossil fuels for mining,” it said in a press release. - The future of our planet depends on the amount of gas emissions into the atmosphere. And we're not going to stand aside from addressing environmental issues. '
The second blow to the market was struck by a tweet from Elon Musk that, perhaps, Tesla will still sell the previously acquired bitcoin tokens. Recall that BTC quotes jumped 22% just three months ago on the news that Tesla had invested $1.5 billion in bitcoin. It may get rid of them now..

- The third major drop in the crypto market was experienced since Tuesday, May 18, to Wednesday, May 19. This time it comes after Chinese financial organizations were banned from providing services related to digital assets.
According to Reuters, a statement was issued by three financial regulators overseeing online financial transactions, the payments market and clearing.
Financial institutions in China are now unable to provide services for the storage and management of cryptocurrency, as well as release products related to digital assets. It is also forbidden to use them as a payment instrument. The three regulators said in a joint statement that virtual currencies are "not supported by real value," their prices are easy to manipulate, and trade contracts are not protected by Chinese law.

- Crypto enthusiasts have developed a new Fuck Elon Tweet (FUCKELON) token. By doing this, they want to demonstrate contempt for Elon Musk's tweets, which affect the digital asset market. The token is based on the Binance Smart Chain. According to the statement, the maximum offer will be 1 billion coins. More than 9,000 addresses became FUCKELON holders.
The coin has already risen by 2000% and the token is trading at the level of $0.005260 at the time of writing.

¬- LMAX institutional platform strategist Joel Kruger considers Elon Musk's statements about high energy consumption of bitcoin as only a catalyst for a long-overdue correction. “There is too much buzz around Tesla and Elon Musk,” he writes. "The pullback is caused by this to a much lesser extent, and by technical overheating after the parabolic movement of the course to a much greater extent."
Another expert and veteran trading veteran, Peter Brandt, said earlier this month that bitcoin would have to "come back to Jesus." And now he confirmed that the current fall fits the description of the moment he had indicated.

- Popular cryptocurrency analyst Lark Davis believes that bitcoin traders shouldn't worry about Elon Musk's comments or bitcoin's depreciation. Davis advises taking a look at the 2017 bull rally and seeing that bitcoin can survive multiple declines. The trader noted that there were 4 different corrections in the range of 30-45% then. The analyst is confident that the current growth is only at an early stage, and believes that the rates will soar much higher by the end of this year:
“You should look more broadly. The current Bitcoin situation is not a cause for concern. This is a fairly common situation that happens in the cryptocurrency market. The situation is likely to become mega-bullish again after a few weeks. Everyone will start to say again that BTC is a new concept of money and stuff like that. Now is not the time to panic and sell cryptocurrency, but it is high time to buy it in panic. We have excellent buying opportunities."

- Analysts at Glassnode confirm Davis' words. According to them, many new investors panicked out of their positions during the rollback, while long-term investors continued to increase their investments.
For example, business analytics company MicroStrategy took advantage of the decline in bitcoin and bought an additional 229 BTC worth $10 million. The acquisition was made at an average price of $43,663. To date, MicroStrategy has 92,079 BTC at its disposal, acquired for a total of $2.251 billion at an average price of about $ 24,450 per coin.
Investor Robert Kiyosaki, the author of the popular book "Rich Dad Poor Dad," is planning to buy on the current fall in bitcoin.

- The oil and petroleum pool, supported by the U.S. military, threatens the environment more than bitcoin mining. This was announced by Alex Gladstein, Strategy Director of the Human Rights Foundation, and James McGinnis, co-founder of David Energy. According to Forbes, the US military used up to 1 million barrels of oil daily in 2017. If the Ministry of Defence were a country, this level of consumption would make it the 55th most carbon dioxide-emitted country in the world.

- The US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has recorded a tenfold increase in cryptocurrency investment fraud. According to the report, the agency received 6,792 allegations of attackers from October 2020 to March 2021. The total amount of damage from their actions exceeded $80 million. The FTC says this figure was 10 times lower a year earlier: 570 appeals with losses totaling $7.5 million.
Scam organizers usually target investors aged between 20 and 49. Most scams operate on a pyramid basis. The most popular methods of finding victims are advertising "investment advice from experienced traders" and "distribution of cryptocurrency on behalf of celebrities." The attackers earned over $2 million on the name of Elon Musk alone.

- Bitcoin is not as popular among criminal groups as it might seem. This is the conclusion reached by blockchain analysts at CipherTrace in their monthly report, where they found that only 1% of all transactions on the bitcoin network are associated with illegal activities. According to them, in 2020, only 1.2% of transactions on the BTC blockchain were made between crypto exchanges and high-risk organizations.
In their sample, CipherTrace classify the following as a high-risk organization: sites with blockchain games, mixers, darknet, hype scam campaigns, ransomware; malware, high-risk exchanges.
Moreover, analysts have found out the volume of transactions used for money laundering. They concluded that the share of such transactions fell from more than 1% to 0.11% in 2020.

- Founded in 1932, American furniture chain Ethan Allen's is listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Since the beginning of 2021, the company's shares have risen by 50% due to the inattention of some investors who confuse securities under the ticker ETH with the second most capitalized cryptocurrency.
According to The Wall Street Journal, economic recovery was not the only reason for the growth. Some investors hear the call “Buy ETH” and buy Ethan Allen's stock instead of Ethereum. According to the publication, in the last month alone, the turnover of ETH shares increased by 56%.

- The founder of the cryptobank Galaxy Digital, Mike Novogratz, predicted in an interview with New York Magazine an increase in the price of Ethereum to $5000. This is facilitated by a combination of three factors: payment apps and stablecoins, decentralized finance, and non-fungible tokens (NFT), he said. “I'm almost 100% sure that the price will rise - it's just mathematics,” Novogratz explained.


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https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for May 24 - 28, 2021​

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. "Some Committee members would consider it appropriate to start discussing the topic of curtailing monetary stimulus if the US economy is moving quickly towards the targets set by the Fed," the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which was published on Wednesday, May 19, say. The wording is more than vague. But it was against this background that the bears tried to strengthen the dollar and drop the EUR/USD pair down. As a result, having bounced off the high of the last eight weeks at 1.2245, it dropped by 85 points - to support1.2160.
However, then the markets realized quickly that this phrase, in fact, does not mean anything in reality. And even if the US Federal Reserve starts to discuss in June the possibility of curtailing the QE program and raising interest rates, it is not worth waiting for concrete steps on these issues yet. This "enlightenment" allowed the bulls to return the pair to the 1.2240 high. But they failed to gain a foothold there.
On Friday, May 21, an increase in the yield on 10-year US government bonds from 1.61% to 1.63% and a decline in US stock indices, coupled with weak German business activity, pushed the EUR/USD pair back to support at 1.2160 once again. The last chord of the week sounded not far from there, at the level of 1.2180;

- GBP/USD. The British currency is fluctuating following the risk appetite of investors. And naturally, the dynamics of GBP/USD is influenced by the same factors as the previous pair. At the same time, the pound seeks to renew not only the annual, but also the 36-month high at 1.4241, and has almost reached this target.
Making a forecast for the past week, most experts pointed to the corridor 1.4100-1.4200. And this forecast, with a minimum tolerance, turned out to be almost perfect.
At the beginning of the week, boosted by positive statistics from the UK labor market, the pair climbed from the 1.4075 horizon to 1.4220. Then, after the rebound, trading shifted a few points to the north, to the range of 1.4100-1.4232.
On Friday, during the American session, treasuries growth and impressive data from IHS Markit on the US services sector forced the bulls to retreat again, and the pair ended the five-day period at 1.4153;

- USD/JPY. Most experts were siding with the bears for four weeks in a row, expecting the pair to drop to support at 109.00 and then at 108.35. And their expectations were justified: breaking through the support at 109.00, the pair went further south. True, it did not reach the second goal, and the local bottom was recorded at 108.56.
The yen was supported by the decline in US bond yields and commodity prices for almost the entire week. Perhaps the pair could go down further, but the rise in oil prices and treasuries yields brought it back to the horizon of 109.00, next to which, at the level of 108.93, it completed the trading session;

- cryptocurrencies. The bullish rally that began in autumn 2020 caused many investors to have a state of euphoria. Having decided that digital assets will grow forever, they forgot that the crypto market is not just volatile, but super-volatile. And that just a small shock is enough to cause its serious fluctuations. And what if there are several such shocks, and they are strong enough? In this case, as with an earthquake, panic immediately arises, and the tsunami wave literally flushes off the market all positions opened using leverage.
The crypto market experienced three such serious earthquakes in the first two decades of May. The first two collapses were associated with Elon Musk.
Tesla first announced the end of the sale of its electric vehicles for bitcoins, explaining this with concern for the environment. “We are concerned about the use of fossil fuels for mining. The future of our planet depends on the amount of gas emissions into the atmosphere. And we are not going to stay away from solving environmental problems, ”- its press release said.
The second blow to the market was struck by a tweet from Elon Musk that, perhaps, Tesla will still sell the previously acquired bitcoin tokens. Recall that BTC quotes jumped 22% just three months ago on the news that Tesla had invested $1.5 billion in bitcoin. It may get rid of them now.
The third panic hit the crypto market after Chinese financial institutions were banned from providing services related to digital assets. A corresponding statement was issued by three financial regulators overseeing online financial transactions, the payments market and clearing.
Financial institutions in China are now unable to provide services for the storage and management of cryptocurrency, as well as release products related to digital assets. It is also forbidden to use them as a payment instrument. The three regulators said in a joint statement that virtual currencies are "not supported by real value, their prices are easy to manipulate, and trade contracts are not protected by Chinese law".
The head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, expressed solidarity with the Chinese authorities, criticizing cryptocurrencies, saying that they pose risks to financial stability, and pointing out that their stricter regulation may be required. In parallel, the US Treasury Department came up with a proposal, according to which information on cryptocurrency transfers worth more than $10,000 should necessarily be reported to the tax service.
As a reminder, bitcoin hit an all-time high at $64,600 on April 14. And now, just five weeks later, on May 19, it fell to $30,225, losing 53%. (For Ethereum, these numbers were, respectively, $4,364, $1,927 and 56%). Then the market seemed to be on the mend, and the BTC/USD pair climbed to $42.285. However, there was another reversal on Friday, May 21, and it dropped to the level of $33,550 by the evening of the same day.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to a 12-month low on May 20 at just 11 points. By the very end of the working week, May 21, it also grew slightly, up to 19 points, and is now in the "Extreme Fear" zone. According to the index developers, such values indicate that the market is still in a strong panic, and that, possibly, its growth will begin after some time.
It is clear that the panic sell-off has affected not only bitcoin, but the entire crypto market as a whole. If on May 12 its total volume was $ 2.54 trillion, then after only seven days, on May 19, this figure fell to $1.43 trillion. It was at the same level on the evening of Friday 21 May.
Concluding the review of the past week, it will be useful to add a little optimism to this negativity. After all, in addition to those who lost their money, there are those who made big profits on the collapse of prices. According to the itsblockchain portal, one of the whales sold 3,000 BTC on May 9 at an average price of $58,500 and bought 3,521 BTC at an average price of $44,500 from May 15 to May 19. Thus, the profit of this investor was $18.7 million, and at the same time they increased their holdings by 521 BTC. And it is appropriate to remind here that the NordFX brokerage company offers its clients the opportunity to earn not only on the growth, but also on the fall of the market. At the same time, it is enough to have just $150 on the account to open both a long and a short position with a volume of 1 BTC. (Tthis figure is 10 times lower for 1 ETH and equals $15).


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. If in the spring of 2020 the determining factor was the fall of the economy under the blows of coronavirus, a year later everything turned 180 degrees. And now the main driver of the markets has become reflation, that is, the recovery of the economy due to its active stimulation.
The S&P500 and Nasdaq indices update historical highs over and over again. And investors, despite the overheating of the stock market, sell dollars over and over again in order to buy back sinking stocks and other risky assets.
Starting March 30, 2021, the DXY dollar index tends to go down, while the EUR/USD pair goes up. And although Fed officials say that discussions on the possibility of curtailing QE may begin as early as June, this may strengthen the dollar only in the short term. The weakness of recent macro statistics is unlikely to allow the regulator to deprive the US economy of financial support. And if any concrete steps are taken, it is unlikely to happen until the end of this year.
Of course, no one questions the stable recovery of the US economy. However, this process has recently slowed down noticeably. So, perhaps, it will be Europe that will become an example of recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. The Eurozone looks much stronger today than it did a few months ago. Accelerating vaccination rates and reducing quarantine measures in many EU countries suggest an imminent recovery of its economy. The European Commission has already raised its GDP growth forecast for 2021 from 3.8% to 4.3%. And now, an attack by the hawks can be expected at the June meeting of the ECB.
The European economy is export oriented. Therefore, the Joe Biden administration can also seriously help it by lowering import tariffs imposed by the previous US President Donald Trump.
All this suggests that the bullish trend for the EUR/USD pair may continue. 70% of experts agree with this forecast, indicating this year's high of 1.2350 as a target. The nearest resistance levels are 1.2245 and 1.2300. In the longer term, we can talk about the growth of the pair to the height of 1.2550.
The remaining 30% of analysts believe that the overbought US stock market should lead to a large-scale correction, as a result of which the pair will break through the support of 1.2160, first drop to the level of 1.2050, and then reach support in the 1.1985-1.2000 zone.
Graphical analysis indicates that the EUR/USD pair will stay in the 1.2160-1.2245 trading range for some time, after which it will go south. There is some confusion among the technical indicators on H4. But their readings are more definite on D1: 85% of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators are colored green.
In terms of macro statistics, Thursday, May 27 seems to be the most interesting. We will find out the volumes of orders for durable goods, as well as data on US GDP on that day;

- GBP/USD. With improved weather conditions, May is likely to have good spending and business performance in the UK. In addition, the country's government is actively lifting the remaining quarantine restrictions, planning to remove all of them on June 21. All this may lead to the fact that the bulls will still achieve their goal, and the GBP/USD pair will renew the 36-month high at 1.4241. 65% of analysts agree with this forecast, supported by 90% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on D1, as well as graphical analysis on H4 and D1.
True, graphical analysis predicts a fall for the pound in the first ten days of June. The remaining 35% of the experts are also expecting a correction to the south. Support levels 1.4100, 1.4075 and 1.4000

- USD/JPY. Japan's low CPI (consumer price index), which was released on Thursday May 20, showed that real yields there significantly outperform yields elsewhere. And this is despite the serious weakening of the yen during the first quarter of this year.
The strong pressure on the yen as a safe haven currency is exerted by global reflation, as well as by the growth of yields on long-term government securities of other countries, especially the United States. For comparison, the yield on 10-year Japanese bonds is 0.25%, while the yield on similar US bonds is 1.63%.
On the other hand, the yen's purchasing power and the resistance of the Japanese economy to rising prices and inflation speaks in favor of the yen. Published data on the PPI showed that the actual yield on Japanese bonds in April was positive, while their US counterparts, thanks to the Fed's printing press, are sinking deeper below zero.
Like the four previous weeks, the majority of experts (this time they are 75%) believe that the weakening of the yen has gone too far and it should continue to win back the lost positions from the dollar. Although expectations in this case are quite modest: the targets are the levels 108.55, 108.30 and 108.00. And the support at 107.50 is seen as a very distant target. The remaining 25% of experts expect the pair to return to the 110.00 zone. The nearest resistance is 109.35.
The indicators on H4 look rather mixed, there is a slight advantage (60%) for the bears on D1. Graphical analysis on both time frames indicates a sideways movement of the pair in the 108.30-110.00 channel;

- cryptocurrencies. After such a collapse, as one would expect, interested influencers rushed together to calm and convince the crypto community that not everything is so scary, and the best is yet to come.
LMAX institutional platform strategist Joel Kruger considers Elon Musk's statements about high energy consumption of bitcoin as only a catalyst for a long-overdue correction. “There is too much buzz around Tesla and Elon Musk,” he writes. "The pullback is caused by this to a much lesser extent, and by technical overheating after the parabolic movement of the course to a much greater extent."
Popular cryptocurrency analyst Lark Davis believes that bitcoin traders shouldn't worry about Elon Musk's comments or bitcoin's depreciation. Davis advises taking a look at the 2017 bull rally and seeing that bitcoin can survive multiple declines. He noted that there were 4 different corrections in the range of 30-45% then.
Lark Davis is confident that the current growth is only at an early stage and believes that the rates will soar much higher by the end of this year. “You should look broader,” he advises. - The current bitcoin situation is not a cause for concern. This is a fairly common situation that happens in the cryptocurrency market. The situation is likely to become mega-bullish again after a few weeks. Everyone will start to say again that BTC is a new concept of money and stuff like that. Now is not the time to panic and sell cryptocurrency, but it is high time to buy it in panic. We have excellent buying opportunities."
Analysts at Glassnode confirm Davis' words. According to them, when many new investors panicked out of their positions during the rollback, long-term investors continued to increase their investments. For example, business analytics company MicroStrategy took advantage of the decline in bitcoin and bought an additional 229 BTC worth $10 million. The acquisition was made at an average price of $43,663. Investor Robert Kiyosaki, the author of the popular book "Rich Dad Poor Dad," is planning to buy on the current fall in bitcoin.
Despite the collapse, Ark Invest fund manager Katie Wood reiterated her outlook for bitcoin. In an interview with Bloomberg, she said that the price of the main cryptocurrency will rise to $500,000 in the future. Katie Wood believes that the fall in the price of BTC was due to too strong emotions, which, as a rule, are not related to fundamental factors. At the same time, she still sees a certain connection with the fact that the most volatile and innovative part of the stock market has undergone a significant correction.
A fly in the ointment is Katie Wood's statement that, despite a fall of more than 50%, the price of bitcoin has not yet bottomed out.
As for the main altcoin, there are enough bullish forecasts here as well. For example, the founder of cryptobank Galaxy Digital Mike Novogratz predicted in an interview with New York Magazine an increase in Ethereum quotes to $5,000. This is facilitated by a combination of three factors: payment apps and stablecoins, decentralized finance, and non-fungible tokens (NFT), he said. “I'm almost 100% sure that the price will rise - it's just mathematics,” Novogratz explained.
And at the end of the review, our mini heading of crypto life hacks. This time, about how you can make money on the negative statements of eminent newsmakers.
Outraged by the mentioned tweets of Elon Musk, crypto enthusiasts have developed a new Fuck Elon Tweet (FUCKELON) token. According to their statement, the maximum offer will be 1 billion coins. FUCKELON is based on the Binance Smart Chain and has over 9,000 wallets already. And most importantly, the coin has already risen in price by 2000% and is trading at $0.005260 at the time of writing.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/