Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[RoboForex Team]

USDJPY is on the rise again, and there is more to come

The USDJPY pair rose to 158.36 on Friday. Uncertainty persists regarding the Bank of Japan’s stance on interest rates. Find out more in our analysis for 10 January 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY pair reaches new multi-year highs
• The yen will remain under pressure until the Bank of Japan clarifies its interest rate policy
• USDJPY forecast for 10 January 2025: 158.45 and 159.00

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate ended the week even higher, hovering around 158.36.

The Japanese yen has now fallen to a new multi-year low. Uncertainty about the timing of an interest hike by the Bank of Japan exerts significant pressure on the JPY. As Japan’s Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said yesterday, the country’s economy is at a critical stage where overcoming the public’s deflationary mindset is essential. However, he did not specify when the BoJ might be ready to raise borrowing costs.

Japan’s household spending fell by 0.4% year-on-year in November, while earnings rose by 0.7%.

Externally, the yen faces additional pressure from a strong US dollar. The USDJPY forecast appears positive.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Political instability in Canada supports USDCAD growth

The USDCAD rate is rising for the fifth consecutive trading session, with buyers poised to test the 1.4465 resistance level. Discover more in our analysis for 13 January 2025.

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

• US jobs increased by 256 thousand in December, marking the most significant gain in nine months
• Positive US labour market data heightened expectations of a slower pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts
• Canada’s unemployment rate decreased to 6.7% in December, surpassing the forecast of 6.9%
• USDCAD forecast for 13 January 2025: 1.4465 and 1.4515

Fundamental analysis

The USDCAD rate is strengthening within an ascending channel. The pair’s growth is supported by the increase in US job numbers, which stood at 256 thousand in December, marking the most substantial growth in nine months. The unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% in November to 4.1% in December, exceeding analysts’ expectations of a 165-thousand job increase. This data has boosted expectations of a slower pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

According to preliminary data, the US Consumer Price Index declined to 73.2 points in December, down from 74.0 in November. Analysts had forecast a less significant decline to 73.8. A year earlier, in January 2024, the index was 79.0.

Meanwhile, Canada’s unemployment rate stood at 6.7% in December, exceeding the expected 6.9%. However, the figure remains the second highest since September 2021, reflecting the softening labour market conditions noted by the Bank of Canada. The economy faces additional pressures from political and fiscal uncertainties, including budget deficit risks and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Gold (XAUUSD) continues to rise after a correction

The stabilising PPI and John C. Williams’s speech may weaken the US dollar and push Gold prices towards 2,692. Discover more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 14 January 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• US Producer Price Index (PPI): previously at 0.4%, projected to remain unchanged
• A speech by FOMC member John C. Williams
• Current trend: moving higher
• XAUUSD forecast for 14 January 2025: 2,692 and 2,658

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD analysis indicates that the pair is nearing the end of its correction and may soon begin a new upward movement.

The US PPI is a key inflation indicator tracking the average price change for goods and services of domestic producers. It records price changes from the sellers’ perspective and covers three production sectors: manufacturing, commodities, and processing. The PPI is often regarded as a leading inflation gauge, as rising costs for production and services typically filter through to consumers. According to the forecast, US PPI data is expected to remain steady at 0.4%.

Today, 14 January 2025, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President and FOMC member John C. Williams is expected to deliver a speech. Given his earlier statements, he will likely discuss the Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy and future actions.

In December 2024, Williams noted the need to proceed with interest rate cuts, emphasising that these decisions will depend on incoming economic data and the current policy, which restrains positive economic momentum.

He also stressed the importance of achieving the 2.0% inflation target and pointed out that while the Fed’s policy remains restrictive, it has successfully guided inflation towards this goal. In today’s speech, Williams will likely address the following issues:

Assessment of current economic conditions and inflation trends

The Federal Reserve’s future interest rate-cutting plans and the conditions required for these cuts

The impact of the fiscal policy and other external factors on the US economy

However, the specifics of his address will only become clear after his speech, which could significantly affect XAUUSD quotes.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

GBPUSD: the pair may continue to decline after completing a correction

The actual UK and US CPI data and the speeches of FOMC members may impact the GBP’s strength. Discover more in our analysis for 15 January 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

• The UK CPI for December: previously at 2.6%, projected at 2.6%
• The US CPI for December: previously at 0.3%, projected at 0.4%
• FOMC member Jeffrey Schmid will deliver a speech
• FOMC member John C. Williams will deliver a speech
• GBPUSD forecast for 15 January 2025: 1.2290 and 1.2100

Fundamental analysis

The UK CPI reflects changes in consumer prices of goods and services, helping assess changes in buying trends and economic stagnation. A higher-than-forecast reading typically has a positive effect on the national currency.

The forecast for 15 January 2025 suggests that the December 2024 CPI could remain unchanged from the previous reading of 2.6%; the projected reading may also be 2.6%.

Fundamental analysis for 15 January 2025 shows that if the UK CPI remains flat compared to the previous period, this may add to positive factors for the British pound.

The US CPI could rise to 0.4% in December 2024 from the previous reading of 0.3%. The index’s positive dynamics add optimism to the US dollar, which, in turn, may have a downward impact on the GBPUSD rate.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President and FOMC member John C. Williams is expected to deliver a speech today, 15 January 2025. Given his earlier statements, he will likely discuss the current economic situation, inflation trends, and possible directions of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

USDJPY declines: the yen catches an opportunity in an attempt to strengthen

The USDJPY pair is hovering around 155.76 on Thursday, marking the second day of decline, with the yen aggressive. Find out more in our analysis for 16 January 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY pair is rapidly declining on the currency market
• The market is receiving signals that the Bank of Japan is ready to raise the interest rate at the next meeting
• USDJPY forecast for 16 January 2025: 155.14

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is rapidly falling, moving towards 155.76.

The yen’s position improved significantly after comments from the Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. The monetary policymaker said the regulator would discuss an interest rate hike next week based on its quarterly GDP and inflation forecasts.

Ueda also noted that the political prospects for the new US administration and wage negotiations with trade unions in Japan are becoming key factors influencing the decision to raise borrowing costs.

The very probability of a rate hike is important to the JPY.

The USDJPY forecast is unfavourable.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Gold (XAUUSD) rises: the market favours buyers

Gold (XAUUSD) prices have risen to 2,715 USD amid strengthening demand for safe-haven assets. Find out more in our analysis for 17 January 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Gold prices maintain their upward trajectory
• The market’s demand for safe-haven assets boosts interest in Gold as such
• XAUUSD forecast for 17 January 2025: 2,727 and 2,730

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) quotes continue their ascent, reaching a monthly high of 2,715 USD.

Two key factors are driving Gold prices upward. The first is the prospect of a US Federal Reserve interest rate cut larger than expected. This outlook became apparent following the release of this week’s economic data. The second factor is the heightened demand for safe-haven assets, as investors seek risk-averse strategies ahead of potential US White House measures to introduce stricter trade tariffs.

The Gold (XAUUSD) forecast appears positive.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team