Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[RoboForex Team]

Gold (XAUUSD) rises ahead of crucial US labour market data

XAUUSD prices are rising after rebounding from the support level, with the quotes currently at 2,863 USD. Find more details in our analysis for 7 February 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• XAUUSD quotes are rising for the sixth consecutive week amid increased demand for Gold
• Increased buying is driven by concerns caused by trade uncertainty and the release of the US employment report
• XAUUSD forecast for 7 February 2025: 2,885 and 2,915

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes have been rising for the sixth consecutive week as demand for Gold has increased amid the current trade uncertainty. Investors are actively buying up the precious metal ahead of the crucial US employment report. According to traders, Gold remains in a strong uptrend, with analysts revising their forecasts upwards, expecting sustainable growth amid US political hyperactivity and massive hedging by global central banks and investors.

Markets are now focused on the US employment data, which may provide insight into the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. An economy with full employment, steady growth, and easing inflation will allow the Fed to continue its rate-cutting cycle. Markets expect the regulator to lower the rate by another 100 basis points in the process. This will inevitably lead to a decline in US Treasury bond yields and a cheaper cost of owning Gold.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

EURUSD: the pair declines after the US labour market statistics

The EURUSD rate edged down to 1.0300 following Friday’s release of mixed US employment data. Discover more in our analysis for 10 February 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech today
• Current trend: the downtrend
• EURUSD forecast for 10 February 2025: 1.0200 and 1.0350

Fundamental analysis

The US labour market statistics for January became available last Friday, including Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate. The Nonfarm Payrolls data came in slightly worse than expected at 143 thousand jobs, below the forecast of 170 thousand. Conversely, the unemployment rate data exceeded expectations, showing a decline to 4.0% (previously at 4.1%).

The EURUSD pair reacted to the US data release with a moderate decline, falling to the price area around 1.0300. Today, market participants will focus on ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech, which could shed light on the outlook for the regulator’s monetary policy.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

USDJPY: the pair found support at 151.00

The USDJPY rate is consolidating in the price area around 152.00, with the market focus on the Fed chairman’s speech before the US Senate today. Find out more in our analysis for 11 February 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech before the US Senate
• Current trend: the downtrend
• USDJPY forecast for 11 February 2025: 151.00 and 152.50

Fundamental analysis

The Japanese yen has been gradually strengthening its position at the beginning of the year. Bank of Japan’s Board member Naoki Tamura said recently that the BoJ should raise the benchmark interest rate to at least 1% in the second half of 2025.

This view was supported by the recent data on wages and household spending in Japan, which showed a stronger-than-expected increase, bolstering expectations of a BoJ rate hike.

Investors are currently awaiting the release of Japan’s GDP and inflation statistics next week to assess the future outlook for the BoJ monetary policy. Today, the market will focus on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech before the US Senate, in which he could announce the regulator’s further plans.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Gold (XAUUSD) corrected from highs ahead of US inflation data

XAUUSD quotes are undergoing a local correction after reaching a new all-time high of 2,942 USD. Today, the focus remains on US inflation statistics. Find out more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 12 February 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: US consumer inflation data will be released today – the Consumer Price Index (CPI)
• Current trend: the uptrend
• XAUUSD forecast for 12 February 2025: 2,850 and 2,942

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD prices are moderately correcting after reaching a new all-time high of 2,942 USD. Market participants will focus on US inflation data for January during the American trading session today, with the CPI scheduled for release. The indicator is projected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year.

The Federal Reserve considers inflation data when deciding whether to change interest rates. Weaker-than-forecast statistics will put pressure on the USD and help strengthen Gold. Conversely, stronger figures will support the US dollar and cause XAUUSD quotes to decline.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Brent reversed downwards, with prices falling below 75.00 USD

Brent prices are declining, falling to the support area at 75.00 USD. Find out more in our analysis for 13 February 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), US crude oil inventories rose by 4.1 million barrels last week
• OPEC+ maintained its oil demand growth forecast at 1.45 million barrels per day in 2025
• Current trend: moving downwards
• Brent forecast for 13 February 2025: 74.00 and 75.00

Fundamental analysis

Yesterday’s US inflation data showed rising inflation risks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) up 0.5% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year (expected at 0.4% and 2.9%, respectively). Accelerating inflation may negatively impact US economic growth, putting pressure on oil prices.

Brent was also affected by the release of the latest EIA report on US crude oil inventories. The data showed that oil stocks increased by 4.1 million barrels last week, exceeding the expected growth of 3.0 million. OPEC+ maintained its oil demand growth forecast at 1.45 million barrels per day in 2025.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

EURUSD: the pair rises amid talks on Ukraine

The EURUSD rate rose to the price area near 1.0500, driven by the beginning of negotiations to end the conflict in Ukraine. Find out more in our analysis for 14 February 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: the market is awaiting the eurozone’s GDP data for Q4 2024 today
• Current trend: upward momentum
• EURUSD forecast for 14 February 2025: 1.0400 and 1.0530

Fundamental analysis

The euro rate rose above a two-week high of 1.0400 after US President Donald Trump signed a memorandum to renegotiate reciprocal tariffs with the eurozone without immediately imposing new tariffs, easing concerns about a sharp deterioration of trade relations with the US.

Optimism about the euro currency also rose on hopes of an end to the military conflict in Ukraine, as Donald Trump promised to make every effort to start a peaceful settlement and held talks with the presidents of Russia and Ukraine.

Today, market participants will focus on the eurozone’s GDP statistics for Q4 2024. The indicator is expected to remain unchanged quarter-on-quarter and rise by 0.9% year-on-year. Stronger-than-expected data will support the euro, with the EURUSD pair likely to continue its ascent. Conversely, weaker figures could send the pair into a correction.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Gold (XAUUSD) continues to strengthen after a correction

Gold continues to rally towards 2,950 ahead of FOMC members’ speeches. Discover more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 17 February 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• A speech by FOMC representative Patrick T. Harker
• A speech by FOMC representative Michelle Bowman
• Current trend: moving upwards
• XAUUSD forecast for 17 February 2025: 2,877 and 2,950

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD analysis shows that Gold prices have corrected towards 2,876 USD, with the pair likely to form another growth wave in the future.

On of the main news for XAUUSD (Gold) is that the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President and FOMC representative Patrick T. Harker is expected to deliver a speech today, 17 February 2025. Earlier, Harker spoke about possible rate cuts in 2025 but emphasised that there was no need for this at present and that further decisions would depend on incoming economic data.

FOMC member Michelle Bowman’s report is scheduled after Harker’s speech. Earlier, in September 2024, she advocated for a 0.25 percentage point rate cut, which reflects her cautious approach to monetary policy changes.

Given the current economic situation, it is worth paying attention to inflation, the labour market, and the Federal Reserve’s possible future actions. Bowman’s speech may provide additional signals about the direction of US monetary policy and adjust the market sentiment.

Based on Bowman’s previous statements and the current economic conditions, she is expected to underscore the need for a balanced approach to interest rate changes, taking into account both the risks of overheating the economy and the need to maintain its sustainable growth.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Japan’s GDP growth adds to pressure on USDJPY

The USDJPY rate is strengthening after rebounding from the 151.20 support level. Discover more in our analysis for 18 February 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Japan’s economy grew by 0.7% in Q4 2024
• BoJ interest rate hike in March remains in question
• USDJPY forecast for 18 February 2025: 151.60 and 150.20

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is on the rise after falling for three consecutive trading sessions as traders focus on the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes. The regulator is adopting a wait-and-see approach, while the market is more focused on the prospects of an interest rate cut.

Meanwhile, the USDJPY pair remains under pressure after unexpectedly strong GDP growth data from Japan. Monday’s quarterly statistics showed that the country’s economy grew by 0.7% in Q4 2024, up from 0.4% in the previous quarter and above the forecast of 0.3%. GDP rose 2.8% year-on-year, aligning with expectations and exceeding 1.7% in Q3.

The data reinforces hawkish sentiment towards the BoJ monetary policy. While there is still uncertainty over a potential rate hike in March, further tightening of monetary conditions during the year is considered quite likely, which may help the yen strengthen as part of today’s USDJPY forecast.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Geopolitical uncertainty supports demand for Gold (XAUUSD)

XAUUSD prices are poised to break above the key resistance level at 2,940 USD. Find more details in our analysis for 19 February 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Markets are awaiting the release of the US Federal Reserve minutes, which may affect Gold prices
• Donald Trump’s trade policy supports demand for Gold as a safe-haven asset
• XAUUSD forecast for 19 February 2025: 2,065 and 3,030

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are undergoing a minor correction after a two-day rise. Gold remains under pressure after reaching record highs and in anticipation of new negotiations between the US and Russia to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. Investors continue to monitor the geopolitical situation as uncertainty around the outcome of the talks restrains price movements.

Markets also focus on the upcoming release of the US Federal Reserve meeting minutes. If the regulator’s rhetoric remains tough, Gold may plunge due to higher yields on dollar assets. At the same time, Donald Trump’s trade policy continues to drive demand for Gold as a safe-haven asset.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Brent is trading below 72.00 USD following the OPEC+ meeting

Brent quotes are declining, with sellers testing the 75.50 USD support level. Discover more in our analysis for 20 February 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• According to the American Petroleum Institute, US crude oil inventories rose by 3.34 million barrels
• There are downside risks for Brent as part of the implementation of the reversal pattern
• Brent forecast for 20 February 2025: 74.35 and 73.15

Fundamental analysis

Brent prices are plunging after rising for three days. The pressure primarily comes from the American Petroleum Institute data, which recorded an increase in US crude oil reserves. According to the API estimates, the country’s oil stocks grew by 3.34 million barrels in the week ended on 14 February.

Brent quotes rose earlier, driven by reports that the G-7 countries were discussing the possibility of strengthening the mechanism to limit Russia’s oil prices. Additionally, traders are closely following the negotiations between the US and Russia on the situation in Ukraine, analysing the incoming information in search of prerequisites for easing sanctions that affect the energy sector.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

USDJPY forecast: the pair declines amid rising inflation in Japan

The USDJPY rate plunged below 150.00 amid the release of Japan’s stronger-than-expected inflation statistics for January. Discover more in our analysis for 21 February 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: Japan’s national Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 4.0% in January
• Current trend: the downtrend
• USDJPY forecast for 21 February 2025: 150.00 and 148.60

Fundamental analysis

According to today’s statistics, Japan’s annual national inflation rate rose by 4.0% in January 2025 from 3.6% in the previous month, marking the highest level since early 2023. The core annual CPI increased by 3.2% from 3.0% in December.

The USDJPY quotes fell to the price area around 149.00 during the Asian session, hitting a two-month low. The Japanese currency is strengthening amid rising GDP and inflation in the country, with investors expecting the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy further.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team