Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[RoboForex Team]

Bank of Canada rate cut expectations support USDCAD growth

The USDCAD pair is slightly declining, with the price currently at 1.4365. Discover more in our analysis for 10 March 2025.

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

• Canada’s economy added only 1 thousand jobs, falling short of the expected 20 thousand
• Expectations of a Bank of Canada key rate cut rose due to weak employment data
• USDCAD forecast for 10 March 2025: 1.4495

Fundamental analysis

The USDCAD rate is correcting after Friday’s surge, primarily driven by a mixed US employment report. In February, the country’s economy added 151 thousand jobs, below the forecast of 160 thousand, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.0%, and wage growth slowed to 0.3%.

However, the Canadian labour market was in an even more challenging situation. Unemployment remained at 6.6%, with the economy creating only 1 thousand jobs, falling short of the expected 20 thousand.

Such a sharp slowdown compared to the sustainable growth seen since August 2024 heightened expectations of a 25-basis-point Bank of Canada key rate cut at the meeting this week. According to the USDCAD forecast for today, such expectations may support further growth of the currency pair despite the current correction.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Brent remains under pressure due to increased output and problems in China

Brent quotes are slightly rising, currently standing at 68.95 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 11 March 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• An economic slowdown in China raises concerns about future oil demand
• The increase in US and Canadian rigs boosts oil supply
• Brent forecast for 11 March 2025: 66.65

Fundamental analysis

Brent quotes are correcting after rebounding from the 68.45 USD support level. Prices are under pressure from global trade tensions, the expected increase in OPEC+ supply, and the uptick in oil production in North America. In February, US rigs added 8 units, reaching 590 rigs, while rigs in Canada increased by 38 units to 247.

An additional negative factor is the weakening of the Chinese economy, the largest oil consumer. Rising deflation in the country raises concerns about future oil demand. All these factors combined create an unfavourable environment for oil quotes, which, as part of the Brent price forecast, increases the risks of its further decline.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

USDJPY is under pressure amid expectations of tighter BoJ monetary policy

The USDJPY pair is rising, with the price currently at 148.40. Discover more in our analysis for 12 March 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Japan’s business sentiment index for large manufacturing companies decreased
• Weak statistics may heighten expectations of further BoJ monetary tightening
• USDJPY forecast for 12 March 2025: 145.65

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is rising for the second consecutive session, with buyers aiming to test the crucial resistance level at 148.50. The US dollar is gaining support amid expectations of the latest inflation data.

Despite the current growth, the currency pair remains under pressure due to uncertainty in Trump’s tariff policy and increasing risks of the US recession. The yen receives additional support from rising wages in Tokyo, which helps offset inflationary costs, reduce the labour shortage, and increase consumer spending, creating conditions for a possible Bank of Japan interest rate hike.

Meanwhile, Japan’s business sentiment index for large manufacturing companies declined to -2.4% in Q1 2025 after rising to 6.3% in the previous quarter. The deterioration of the indicator and weak statistics could fuel expectations for further BoJ monetary tightening, which supports a bearish forecast for USDJPY for today.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team