Market Technical Analysis by RoboForex

[RoboForex Team]

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 28.05.2024 (GBPUSD, XAUUSD, USDCHF)

GBPUSD, "Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar"
GBPUSD has established itself above the resistance level. The pair is moving above the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting an uptrend. A test of the Kijun-Sen line at 1.2745 is expected, followed by a rise to 1.2935. A rebound from the lower boundary of the bullish channel would be an additional signal confirming the increase. The scenario could be cancelled by a breakout of the lower boundary of the Cloud, with the price securing below 1.2565, indicating a further decline to 1.2475.

XAUUSD, "Gold vs US Dollar"
Gold is correcting while forming a bearish Flag pattern. The instrument is moving below the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting a downtrend. A test of the Kijun-Sen line at 2360 is expected, followed by a fall to 2275. A rebound from the upper boundary of the Flag pattern would be an additional signal confirming the fall. This scenario could be cancelled by a breakout above the upper boundary of the Cloud, with the price securing above 2405, indicating a further rise to 2455. Conversely, a decline could be confirmed by a breakout below the lower boundary of the Flag pattern, with the price gaining a foothold below 2335.

USDCHF, "US Dollar vs Swiss Franc"
USDCHF is declining following a rebound from the resistance level. The pair is moving above the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting an uptrend. A test of the upper boundary of the Cloud at 0.9095 is expected, followed by a rise to 0.9225. A rebound from the upper boundary of the bearish channel would be an additional signal confirming the increase. This scenario could be cancelled by a breakout below the lower boundary of the Cloud, with the price securing below 0.9035, indicating a further decline to 0.8945.

Read more - Ichimoku Cloud Analysis (GBPUSD, XAUUSD, USDCHF)

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Murrey Math Lines 29.05.2024 (USDJPY, USDCAD)

USDJPY, "US Dollar vs Japanese Yen"
USDJPY quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average on D1, indicating a prevailing uptrend. The RSI has surpassed the resistance line. In this situation, the price is expected to rise further to the nearest resistance at 7/8 (159.37). A breakout below the 6/8 (156.25) support level could cancel this scenario, leading to a potential decline to 5/8 (153.12).

On M15, the upper line of the VoltyChannel is broken, which increases the probability of a further price rise.

USDCAD, "US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar"
USDCAD quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average on D1, indicating a prevailing uptrend. The RSI has rebounded from the support line. In this situation, the price is expected to surpass the 8/8 (1.3671) level and rise further to the +1/8 (1.3793) resistance level. A breakout below the 7/8 (1.3549) level could cancel this scenario, leading to a potential decline to the 6/8 (1.3427) support level.

Read more - Murrey Math Lines (USDJPY, USDCAD)

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Murrey Math Lines 30.05.2024 (USDCHF, XAUUSD)

USDCHF, "US Dollar vs Swiss Franc"
On the M15 timeframe, USDCHF quotes are currently above the 200-day Moving Average, indicating a prevailing uptrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has breached the resistance line. In this scenario, further upward movement is anticipated towards the nearest resistance at 7/8 (0.9155), followed by a price increase to resistance at 8/8 (0.9277). However, a breakout below the 6/8 (0.9033) support level could invalidate this scenario, potentially leading to a decline towards 5/8 (0.8911).

On the M15 timeframe, the upper line of the VoltyChannel indicator was breached, increasing the likelihood of further price appreciation.

XAUUSD, "Gold vs US Dollar"
On the D1 timeframe, gold prices are currently above the 200-day Moving Average, indicating a prevailing uptrend. The RSI is testing the support line. In this scenario, we anticipate a breakthrough above the 3/8 level (2375.00), followed by a further price increase towards the resistance at 4/8 (2500.00). However, a breakout below the 2/8 level (2250.00) could invalidate this scenario, potentially leading to a decline towards the 1/8 support level (2125.00).

Read more - Murrey Math Lines (USDCHF, XAUUSD)

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Murrey Math Lines 31.05.2024 (Brent, S&P 500)

Brent
Brent crude oil quotes are below the 200-day Moving Average on D1, indicating a prevailing downtrend. The RSI has crossed the support line. In this situation, the price is expected to break through the 2/8 (81.25) level and subsequently fall to the 1/8 (78.12) support level. A breakout above the 3/8 (84.38) level could invalidate this scenario, leading to a trend reversal and a rise in quotes to the 4/8 (87.50) resistance level.

On M15, the lower line of the VoltyChannel indicator is breached, increasing the probability of a price decline.

S&P 500
S&P 500 index quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average on D1, indicating a prevailing uptrend. The RSI is testing the support line. In this situation, the price is expected to surpass the 6/8 (5312.5) level and rise further to the 7/8 (5468.8) resistance level. A breakout below the 5/8 (5156.2) level could invalidate this scenario, potentially causing the quotes to drop to the 4/8 (5000.0) support level.

Read more - Murrey Math Lines (Brent, S&P 500)

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Murrey Math Lines 03.06.2024 (EURUSD, GBPUSD)

EURUSD, "Euro vs US Dollar"
EURUSD quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average on D1, indicating a prevailing uptrend. The RSI has rebounded from the support line. In this situation, the price is expected to surpass the 5/8 (1.0864) level and rise to the resistance at 6/8 (1.0986). The scenario could be cancelled by a breakout of the 4/8 (1.0772) level, which might lead to a trend reversal, pushing the pair to the 3/8 (1.0620) support level.

On M15, the upper line of the VoltyChannel is broken, which increases the probability of a price rise.

GBPUSD, "Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar"
GBPUSD quotes are in the overbought area on D1. The RSI has breached the support line. In this situation, the price is expected to break below the 8/8 (1.2695) level and decline to the support at 7/8 (1.2573) support. The scenario could be cancelled by surpassing the +1/8 (1.2817) level. In this case, the pair might rise to the resistance at +2/8 (1.2939).

Read more - Murrey Math Lines (EURUSD, GBPUSD)

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Murrey Math Lines 04.06.2024 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD)

AUDUSD, "Australian Dollar vs US Dollar"
AUDUSD quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average on D1, indicating a prevailing uptrend. The RSI has rebounded from the support line. In this situation, the price is expected to surpass the 6/8 (0.6713) level and rise to the resistance at 7/8 (0.6774). A breakout below the 5/8 (0.6652) level could cancel this scenario, potentially causing the quotes to drop to the 4/8 (0.6591) support level.

On M15, the upper line of the VoltyChannel is broken, which increases the probability of a further price rise.

NZDUSD, "New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar"
NZDUSD quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average on D1, indicating a prevailing uptrend. However, the RSI has reached the overbought area. As a result, in this situation, the price is expected to test the 6/8 (0.6225) level, rebound, and decline to the support at 4/8 (0.6103). The scenario could be cancelled by surpassing the 6/8 (0.6225) level. In this case, the quotes might rise to the resistance at 7/8 (0.6286).

Read more - Murrey Math Lines (AUDUSD, NZDUSD)

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Murrey Math Lines 06.06.2024 (USDCHF, XAUUSD)

USDCHF, "US Dollar vs Swiss Franc"
USDCHF quotes have broken below the 200-day Moving Average on D1, indicating a potential downtrend. However, the RSI has reached the overbought area. As a result, in this situation, the price is expected to rebound from the 5/8 (0.8911) level and rise to the resistance at 6/8 (0.9033). A breakout below the 5/8 (0.8911) level could cancel this scenario, pushing the pair further down to the support at 4/8 (0.8789).

On M15, the price rise might be additionally supported by a breakout of the VoltyChannel upper line.

XAUUSD, "Gold vs US Dollar"
Gold quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average on D1, indicating a prevailing uptrend. The RSI has rebounded from the support line. In this situation, the price is expected to surpass the 3/8 (2375.00) level and rise further to the 4/8 (2500.00) resistance level. A rebound from the 3/8 (2375.00) level could cancel this scenario, leading to a potential decline to the 2/8 (2250.00) support level.

Read more - Murrey Math Lines (USDCHF, XAUUSD)

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Murrey Math Lines 07.06.2024 (Brent, S&P 500)

Brent
Brent crude oil quotes are below the 200-day Moving Average on D1, indicating a prevailing downtrend. The RSI is approaching the resistance line. In this situation, the price is expected to test the 2/8 (81.25) level, rebound, and fall to the support at 0/8 (75.00). Surpassing the 2/8 (81.25) level could invalidate this scenario, propelling the quotes to the resistance at 3/8 (84.38).

On M15, a breakout of the VoltyChannel lower line will provide an additional signal for a price decline.

S&P 500
S&P 500 quotes are in the overbought area on D1, with divergence on the RSI. In this situation, the price is expected to breach the +1/8 (5312.5) level and decline to the 8/8 (5000.0) support level. The scenario could be cancelled by a breakout of the +2/8 (5625.0) level, which might reshuffle the Murrey indication, setting new price movement targets.

Read more - Murrey Math Lines (Brent, S&P 500)

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Murrey Math Lines 10.06.2024 (EURUSD, GBPUSD)

EURUSD, "Euro vs US Dollar"
EURUSD quotes have broken below the 200-day Moving Average on D1, indicating a potential downtrend. The RSI has breached the support line. In this situation, the price is expected to break below the 4/8 (1.0772) level and decline to the support at 3/8 (1.0620). The scenario could be cancelled by a rebound from the 4/8 (1.0772) level, which might lead to a rise to the resistance at 5/8 (1.0864).

On M15, the lower line of the VoltyChannel is broken, which increases the probability of a price decline.

GBPUSD, "Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar"
GBPUSD quotes remain in the overbought area on D1. The RSI has breached the support line. In this situation, the price is expected to break below the 8/8 (1.2695) level and decline to the support at 7/8 (1.2573) support. The scenario could be cancelled by surpassing the +1/8 (1.2817) level. In this case, the pair might rise to the resistance at +2/8 (1.2939).

Read more - Murrey Math Lines (EURUSD, GBPUSD)

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 11.06.2024 (USDCAD, AUDUSD, USDCHF)

USDCAD, "US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar"
USDCAD has formed a Hanging Man reversal pattern on H4. The instrument is currently following the reversal signal in a descending wave. The decline target could be 1.3730. Next, the price might rebound from the support level and continue its upward momentum. However, the quotes could rise to 1.3800 without a correction.

AUDUSD, "Australian Dollar vs US Dollar"
AUDUSD has formed an Inverted Hammer reversal pattern on H4. The instrument is currently following the reversal signal in an ascending wave. The growth target could be 0.6645. After testing the resistance level, the quotes could break above it and maintain their upward trajectory. However, the price might pull back to 0.6580 before rising.

USDCHF, "US Dollar vs Swiss Franc"
USDCHF has formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern on H4. The instrument is currently following the reversal signal in a descending wave. The decline target could be 0.8900. After testing the support level, the price might breach it and continue to develop a downtrend. However, the price could correct to 0.9000 before declining.

Read more - Japanese Candlesticks Analysis (USDCAD, AUDUSD, USDCHF)

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Murrey Math Lines 12.06.2024 (USDJPY, USDCAD)

USDJPY, "US Dollar vs Japanese Yen"
USDJPY quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average on D1, indicating a prevailing uptrend. The RSI has breached the resistance line. In this situation, the price is expected to test the 7/8 (159.37) level, break above it, and rise to the resistance at 8/8 (162.50). A breakout below the 5/8 (153.12) support level could cancel this scenario, leading to a potential decline to 4/8 (150.00).

On M15, a breakout above the upper line of the VoltyChannel would provide an additional signal supporting the price increase.

USDCAD, "US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar"
USDCAD quotes are in the overbought area on D1. The RSI is testing the resistance line. In this situation, the price is expected to break the 8/8 (1.3671) level and decline to the support at 7/8 (1.3549). Surpassing the +1/8 (1.3793) level could cancel this scenario, leading to a potential rise to the +2/8 (1.3916) resistance level.

Read more - Murrey Math Lines (USDJPY, USDCAD)

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 13.06.2024 (GBPUSD, XAUUSD, USDCHF)

GBPUSD, "Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar"
GBPUSD is correcting after rebounding from the upper boundary of the bullish channel. The pair is moving above the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting an uptrend. A test of the Cloud's lower boundary at 1.2745 is expected, followed by a rise to 1.2925. A rebound from the upper boundary of the bearish channel would be an additional signal confirming the increase. The scenario could be cancelled by a breakout of the Cloud's lower boundary, with the price securing below 1.2715, indicating a further decline to 1.2625.

XAUUSD, "Gold vs US Dollar"
Gold is bouncing off the resistance level. The instrument is moving below the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting a downtrend. A test of the Cloud's lower boundary at 2340 is expected, followed by a decline to 2230. A rebound from the upper boundary of the bearish channel would be an additional signal confirming the fall. This scenario could be cancelled by a breakout above the upper boundary of the Cloud, with the price securing above 2355, indicating a further rise to 2395. Conversely, a decline could be confirmed by a breakout below the lower boundary of the ascending channel, with the price gaining a foothold below 2300.

USDCHF, "US Dollar vs Swiss Franc"
USDCHF is rising after rebounding from the lower boundary of the Head and Shoulders reversal pattern. The pair is moving inside the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating a sideways trend. A test of the resistance area at 0.8960 is expected, followed by a decline to 0.8795. A rebound from the upper boundary of the bearish channel would signal the decline. The scenario could be cancelled by a breakout of the upper boundary of the Cloud, with the price securing above 0.9055, indicating a further rise to 0.9145. Conversely, a decline could be confirmed by a breakout below the lower boundary of the Head and Shoulders pattern, with the price establishing itself below 0.8865.

Read more - Ichimoku Cloud Analysis (GBPUSD, XAUUSD, USDCHF)

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Murrey Math Lines 14.06.2024 (Brent, S&P 500)

Brent
Brent crude oil quotes are below the 200-day Moving Average on D1, indicating a prevailing downtrend. The RSI is testing the resistance line. In this situation, the price is expected to break the 2/8 (81.25) level, rebound, and fall to the support at 1/8 (78.12). Surpassing the 3/8 (84.38) level could invalidate this scenario, propelling the quotes to the resistance at 4/8 (87.50).

On M15, a breakout of the VoltyChannel lower line will provide an additional signal for a price decline.

S&P 500
S&P 500 quotes and the RSI are in the overbought areas on D1. In this situation, the price is expected to breach the +1/8 (5312.5) level and decline to the 8/8 (5000.0) support level. The scenario could be invalidated by surpassing the +2/8 (5625.0) level, which might reshuffle the Murrey indication, setting new price movement targets.

Read more - Murrey Math Lines (Brent, S&P 500)

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

EUR continues to fall: the US dollar is to blame. Overview for 17.06.2024

The EURUSD position appears weak on Monday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0702.

The EUR faces serious pressure due to the political imbalance in Europe and a rather mixed outlook. The euro-dollar exchange rate has declined by 0.8% over the last week, marking the maximum weekly fall since April and giving a reason for a detailed forecast for EURUSD on 17 June 2024.

The market is speculating on the risks of a budget crisis in the eurozone. This pertains to the situation in France, where the confrontation between the right and left parties is reaching a new level ahead of snap parliamentary elections, with increasing pressure on President Emmanuel Macron's centrist administration.

All these factors increase the likelihood of implications for the economy in the heart of the eurozone. This situation appears significant and dubious and is unlikely to be resolved soon.

A fall in the euro rate indirectly benefits the US dollar.

Despite a massive sell-off in the French financial markets last week, the European Central Bank does not plan to initiate an emergency purchase of French bonds.

Technical analysis EURUSD

As the analysis for 17 June 2024 shows, EURUSD is developing another decline wave towards 1.0450. On the H4 chart, the market formed the first structure of this wave, with a target at 1.0666. Today, a consolidation range is expected to form above this level. With an upward breakout, a correction towards 1.0790 might follow. Once the correction is complete, a new decline structure in the EURUSD exchange rate could start, aiming for 1.0680. A breakout of this level will open the potential for a decline wave towards the local target of 1.0570. With a downward breakout of the range, a decline wave to 1.0570 is possible. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Elliott Wave structure and a wave matrix with a pivot point at 1.0680. The market has completed a decline to the lower boundary of the Envelope, with a rise to its upper boundary being expected.

Read more - EURUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Gold is correcting, facing pressure from a strong US dollar

Gold prices continue to correct after reaching an all-time high of 2,450 USD per troy ounce. Pressure mostly comes from the strengthening US dollar, which has received support after last week's Federal Reserve meeting. The interest rate remained unchanged at 5.5%, and comments indicated that economic activity continues to increase steadily, with job gains remaining high and the unemployment rate low.

Although market participants hoped for a signal from the Federal Reserve about an upcoming interest rate reduction amid slowing US inflation, this did not occur. Analysts anticipate one interest rate cut of 0.25% by the end of the year. Meanwhile, gold has experienced steady growth of approximately 12.5% since the beginning of the year. This rise is driven by fundamental factors: the US treasury bond market is gradually losing its share as the main global reserve asset, with world central banks partially selling US treasury bonds and purchasing gold instead.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, gold quotes are experiencing a correction within a descending price channel after reaching a high of 2,450 in May. The price is currently hovering near the 2,320 mark, with a Triangle technical pattern forming on the chart. The direction of the price movement out of this pattern may indicate the near term.

According to the forecast, if the quotes exit the Triangle pattern upwards and secure above 2,340, this will open the potential for growth towards the 2,388 resistance level. If the price of gold declines, dropping below the lower line of this pattern, a fall might continue towards a strong support area between 2,285 and 2,277.

Read more - Gold

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Will the ECB meeting help strengthen the euro?

The US dollar continues to lose ground against the euro on Wednesday. The European Central Bank meeting may bring about some changes.

Today's European Central Bank meeting on non-monetary policy issues may change the EURUSD rate. In anticipation of the ECB's monthly and meeting reports, the euro may slightly strengthen against the US dollar.

Wednesday is rich in news with a weak economic effect, and this news typically does not significantly impact the quotes individually. The eurozone and US news may positively affect the EURUSD forecast, but this influence will be short-lived. When the news for 19 June 2024 is released, the EURUSD pair may slightly strengthen before further losing ground.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD 4Н chart analysis for 19 June 2024 shows a corrective wave towards 1.0760. A decline structure is expected to start, aiming for 1.0711. A new consolidation range might practically develop within these levels. With an upward breakout of the range, a correction might continue towards 1.0800. Subsequently, the EURUSD price could decline to 1.0660. A downward breakout will open the potential for a decline wave directly towards 1.0660, potentially continuing towards the local target of 1.0570.

This scenario is technically confirmed by the Elliott Wave structure and a wave matrix with a pivot point at 1.0680. This level is considered crucial for a downward wave in the EURUSD pair. The market has received a downward rebound from the Envelope centre. If the market gains a foothold above the 1.0760 level, the corrective wave might continue towards the Envelope's upper boundary at 1.0800. If the market fails to secure above the 1.0760 level, the wave could expand towards 1.0630, potentially continuing to 1.0570, with another touch of the Envelope's lower boundary.

Read more - EURUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

JPY struggles amid widespread decline

The Japanese yen is undergoing a correction after the release of the May core consumer price index. The likelihood of continued weakening remains high.

Japan released the nationwide core consumer price index for May. In the previous period, the index was 2.2%. Analysts had predicted a 2.6% rise, but the actual figure was 2.5%, indicating an improvement, although less than expected.

The positive trend did not save the yen from losing positions against the US dollar. A higher index value typically suggests a positive outlook and strengthens the yen. However, in the current situation, the data did not favour the yen's exchange rate, which has led to its further weakening.

The US Federal Reserve's report on monetary policy may "add fuel to the fire" and weaken the yen even more.

USDJPY technical analysis

On the USDJPY H4 chart, the fifth corrective wave continues to develop, with a target at 159.35. The price has reached the local target of 158.80. Today, 21 June 2024, a consolidation range is expected to form around this level. A downward breakout of the range will open the potential for a decline to 158.20 (testing from above), followed by a rise towards 159.35, representing the main target for correction. Once the correction is complete, a decline wave might start, aiming for 155.50.

This USDJPY rate scenario is technically confirmed by the Elliott Wave structure and a correction matrix with a pivot point at 155.70. The market has completed a growth structure towards the Envelope's upper boundary at 158.80. A decline wave is expected to begin, targeting its centre – 158.20, with an onward growth wave structure aiming for 159.35 as the main target.

Read more - USDJPY

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

The fall of the pound continues for the second week

On Monday, the pound keeps losing ground against the US dollar, continuing its decline since 12 June 2024.

British industrialists expect a slight improvement in the UK Industrial Orders Index (CBI). The CBI came out worse than expected in the last reporting period, but now the analysts are waiting for more favourable data, which will not help improve the GBPUSD rate.

The indicator is expected to settle around the -26 level in the current reporting period compared to -33 in the previous one. Index values below zero indicate a decline in the volume of industrial orders and have a negative impact on the GBPUSD rate.

Also on Monday, the CFTC data on the number of net speculative positions in GBP among traders in the New York and Chicago futures markets will be released. Over the past four weeks, the number of positions in GBPUSD has been growing, which may indicate an increase in demand for this asset among speculators.

GBPUSD technical analysis

According to the analysis on 24 June 2024, GBPUSD is developing another decline wave towards 1.2600. On the GBPUSD H4 chart, a consolidation range has formed around 1.2666. This level is crucial in the current decline wave.

If the price falls below the range's boundary, another decline wave could develop towards a local target at 1.2600. After this wave is completed, a corrective GBPUSD growth structure towards 1.2666 (test from below) may begin, followed by another decline wave with a first target at 1.2477.

This scenario is technically confirmed by the Elliott Wave structure and a wave matrix with a pivot point at 1.2666. The market continues to decline to the lower boundary of the Envelope. After reaching 1.2600, a growth wave towards the Envelope's centre at 1.2666 may begin.

After that, a decline to the Envelope's lower boundary at 1.2477 is possible. Only after the price reaches this level may the decline wave be considered complete. A correction to the Envelope's upper boundary may follow.

Read more - GBPUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

AUD rises to a two-week peak, supported by several factors

The AUDUSD pair benefits from the RBA's tough stance, the US dollar's weakness, and attacks on the yen.

The Australian dollar has reached a two-week high against the US dollar and is hovering near the 0.6660 mark.

The main support for the Aussie came from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which maintains a hawkish stance on monetary policy. The RBA is expected to lower the interest rate much later than other major central banks.

Thus, the markets missed nearly every chance of an interest rate cut from the RBA in 2024. Overall easing is only projected to happen by the end of 2025, with an average expectation of 43 basis points.

RBA Governor Michele Bullock said that the regulator discussed the need for an interest rate hike at its June meeting without even considering a rate reduction.

The AUD rate is currently benefitting from short attacks on the JPY and the local weakening of the US dollar rate.

Later this week, the market will focus on Australia's inflation data.

AUDUSD technical analysis

A consolidation range has formed above the 0.6630 level on the AUDUSD Н4 chart and extended to 0.6677 following an upward breakout. Subsequently, the market returned to the 0.6630 level, which is crucial for the AUDUSD forecast for 25 June 2024. With an upward breakout, the price might rise to 0.6750. A downward breakout will open the potential for a decline in the AUDUSD quotes to 0.6565. If this level breaks, the trend might continue towards 0.6424, representing an estimated target.

This scenario is technically confirmed by the Elliott Wave structure and a wave matrix with a pivot point at 0.6555. The market has reached a local target of the growth wave at the Envelope's upper boundary – 0.6710. Following this, the price declined to its lower boundary at 0.6577 as part of a correction. Today, the market continues to develop a consolidation range around the Envelope's central line at 0.6630. With a downward breakout, a decline wave could follow, targeting the Envelope's lower boundary at 0.6565. An upward breakout might enable a growth wave, aiming for its upper boundary at 0.6750.

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Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

EUR is declining ahead of the Eurogroup meeting

Today's EURUSD forecast appears pessimistic as the news landscape may confirm the technical analysis conclusion about the pair's decline.

The Eurogroup meeting and a speech by ECB representative Philip R. Lane are scheduled for Wednesday. They might provide insights into the future trajectory of the eurozone's monetary policy.

The US will release data, including May 2024 new home sales, building permits, and crude oil stocks.

If these indicators exceed forecasts and previous readings, they may collectively support the US dollar, which will be considered in today's EURUSD forecast.

By the end of the business day, the US will publish the results of bank stress tests the Federal Reserve conducted on 34 of the largest US banks to evaluate their ability to increase dividends and buy back shares. Although such tests are rare, their results may affect the US dollar by contributing to its strengthening or weakening, which will cause increased volatility in the market.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, EURUSD is currently in a consolidation phase around the 1.0717 level without any clear trend. With an upward breakout of the range, a correction might continue to 1.0760. After reaching this level, the price could decline to 1.0680. Subsequently, another corrective structure might develop, aiming for 1.0770 as the main target for correction. Once the correction is complete, a new decline wave is expected to start, targeting 1.0680, a crucial level for the EURUSD forecast for 26 June 2024. A breakout of this level will open the potential for a decline to 1.0610, possibly continuing to 1.0570, the estimated local target.

The Elliott Wave structure and a wave matrix with a pivot point at 1.0680 technically confirm this scenario. This level is considered crucial for a downward wave in the EURUSD rate. The market has breached the Envelope's centre and is consolidating below the 1.0717 level. The wave could decline to its lower boundary today.

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Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team