RoboForex Team
Well-known member
2024 Crude Oil Forecast: Analysing Market Trends and Price Predictions
Dear Clients and Partners,
On 11 January 2024, we looked at the current trends in the oil market and examined the key factors that influenced the oil price performance in 2023 and are likely to impact it in 2024. We conducted a technical analysis of Brent and WTI charts and shared experts' long-term forecasts on oil prices.
Influential factors on crude oil prices in 2023-2024
OPEC+ policy
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) made active efforts throughout 2023 to support global oil prices, with its share in global oil supplies exceeding 40%. Saudi Arabia's voluntary output cuts of 1 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2023 demonstrate the country's leading role in promoting a policy of output cuts to support oil prices.
The latest online meeting of OPEC+ members was held on 30 November 2023, where agreements on output cut commitments were reached. OPEC+ announced following the meeting that total restrictions would amount to 2.2 million b/d for eight oil-producing countries.
However, it is worth noting that discussions were challenging. Several OPEC+ members announced they were not ready to reduce commodity output in 2024. Angola's government decided to exit the organisation at the beginning of the year, while Brazil is expected to join OPEC+ in 2024.
The failure of OPEC+ members to reach a consensus on overall output cuts for all member countries may pose a risk to oil quotes. It has become apparent that some members find it increasingly challenging to commit to further cuts. Whether the organisation can overcome the existing disagreements and pursue a coordinated policy to support commodity prices remains to be seen in 2024.
Global oil demand and supply
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects global oil demand to increase by 1.39 million b/d to 102.46 million b/d in 2024. The expected demand increase will primarily be attributed to Asian countries, with China and India being the largest consumers.
The EIA also forecasts that the global oil output will increase by 0.61 million b/d in 2024, reaching 102.34 million b/d. The Energy Information Administration estimates the market will experience a small deficit at the beginning of 2024 due to the OPEC+ restrictive policy, averaging 210 thousand b/d. However, the market is expected to find a balance by the end of the year.
Sanctions policy
The EU ban on maritime imports of Russian crude oil due to Russia's full-scale military incursion into Ukraine came into effect in December 2022 with a price cap of 60 USD per barrel. An embargo on Russian petroleum products was introduced in February 2023. These sanctions, aimed to weaken the aggressor country, contribute to oil price growth in the long run.
In November, the US Department of State announced new sanctions against the Iranian oil and gas sector amid the Israel-Hamas war. It is worth noting that Iran supports the Palestinian group Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah. The sanctions are expected to reduce oil exports from Iran, currently amounting to about 1 million barrels daily.
Geopolitical risks
When referring to the geopolitical environment in recent years, it is essential to point out events such as Russia's full-scale incursion into Ukraine in 2022 and the Hamas attack on Israel in 2023. There are no indications that the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflict are about to end. Furthermore, tensions between China and Taiwan and North Korea and South Korea might escalate.
The existing or imminent conflicts mentioned above involve the US, China, and Russia to some extent, indicating a potential threat of a significant oil price leap. It is worth considering scenarios that might lead to other less predictable geopolitical events that can strongly impact the oil market.
Read more at R Blog - RoboForex
Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
Dear Clients and Partners,
On 11 January 2024, we looked at the current trends in the oil market and examined the key factors that influenced the oil price performance in 2023 and are likely to impact it in 2024. We conducted a technical analysis of Brent and WTI charts and shared experts' long-term forecasts on oil prices.
Influential factors on crude oil prices in 2023-2024
OPEC+ policy
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) made active efforts throughout 2023 to support global oil prices, with its share in global oil supplies exceeding 40%. Saudi Arabia's voluntary output cuts of 1 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2023 demonstrate the country's leading role in promoting a policy of output cuts to support oil prices.
The latest online meeting of OPEC+ members was held on 30 November 2023, where agreements on output cut commitments were reached. OPEC+ announced following the meeting that total restrictions would amount to 2.2 million b/d for eight oil-producing countries.
However, it is worth noting that discussions were challenging. Several OPEC+ members announced they were not ready to reduce commodity output in 2024. Angola's government decided to exit the organisation at the beginning of the year, while Brazil is expected to join OPEC+ in 2024.
The failure of OPEC+ members to reach a consensus on overall output cuts for all member countries may pose a risk to oil quotes. It has become apparent that some members find it increasingly challenging to commit to further cuts. Whether the organisation can overcome the existing disagreements and pursue a coordinated policy to support commodity prices remains to be seen in 2024.
Global oil demand and supply
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects global oil demand to increase by 1.39 million b/d to 102.46 million b/d in 2024. The expected demand increase will primarily be attributed to Asian countries, with China and India being the largest consumers.
The EIA also forecasts that the global oil output will increase by 0.61 million b/d in 2024, reaching 102.34 million b/d. The Energy Information Administration estimates the market will experience a small deficit at the beginning of 2024 due to the OPEC+ restrictive policy, averaging 210 thousand b/d. However, the market is expected to find a balance by the end of the year.
Sanctions policy
The EU ban on maritime imports of Russian crude oil due to Russia's full-scale military incursion into Ukraine came into effect in December 2022 with a price cap of 60 USD per barrel. An embargo on Russian petroleum products was introduced in February 2023. These sanctions, aimed to weaken the aggressor country, contribute to oil price growth in the long run.
In November, the US Department of State announced new sanctions against the Iranian oil and gas sector amid the Israel-Hamas war. It is worth noting that Iran supports the Palestinian group Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah. The sanctions are expected to reduce oil exports from Iran, currently amounting to about 1 million barrels daily.
Geopolitical risks
When referring to the geopolitical environment in recent years, it is essential to point out events such as Russia's full-scale incursion into Ukraine in 2022 and the Hamas attack on Israel in 2023. There are no indications that the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflict are about to end. Furthermore, tensions between China and Taiwan and North Korea and South Korea might escalate.
The existing or imminent conflicts mentioned above involve the US, China, and Russia to some extent, indicating a potential threat of a significant oil price leap. It is worth considering scenarios that might lead to other less predictable geopolitical events that can strongly impact the oil market.
Read more at R Blog - RoboForex
Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team