USDJPY Daily Analysis

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDJPY analysis for 16.01.2024




Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USDJPY pair, like all forex currency pairs, is influenced by various macroeconomic factors, such as central bank policies, economic data releases, and geopolitical events. For the Japanese Yen, factors such as Japan's trade balance, Bank of Japan's monetary policy, and risk sentiment play a pivotal role. The U.S. dollar is affected by Federal Reserve policy, economic indicators, and global market sentiment. Any changes in these areas can cause significant price movements for USDJPY.


Price Action:
The H4 chart shows a recent recovery in price after a period of downward movement, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment. The price has formed a series of higher closes, which may suggest that bulls are gaining control. If this trend persists, it could lead to further upward momentum in the USDJPY pair.


Technical Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is around 61.6, which is slightly above the midpoint of 50, indicating a mild bullish momentum without being in the overbought territory.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is positive, but the MACD line is below the signal line. This could suggest that while the bearish momentum is fading, the market has not turned fully bullish yet.

Ichimoku Cloud: The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud, which is typically a bullish signal. However, a close observation of the cloud's future projection suggests uncertainty in the trend's strength.

Parabolic SAR: The dots of the Parabolic SAR are below the price bars, which supports the bullish sentiment seen in the price action.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The price action shows a clear support level at the recent swing low around 141.50, which could act as a floor for future price dips.

Resistance: On the higher side, a resistance level can be identified near the recent high of around 146.00, which could pose a challenge for bullish movements.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The technical outlook for USDJPY on the H4 chart suggests a cautiously optimistic view for the bulls, with the price action and Parabolic SAR indicating an emerging bullish trend. However, the MACD and Ichimoku Cloud advise caution as they do not fully confirm a bullish reversal. Traders should monitor the key support and resistance levels, keeping an eye on macroeconomic developments that could affect the pair. It's prudent to set stop losses below the identified support level and take profits near resistance to manage potential risk.



Disclaimer: The above analysis is for educational purposes and should not be taken as investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and risk assessment before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
16.01.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDJPY analysis for 08.03.2024





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


The USD/JPY technical analysis on the H4 chart for March 8th, 2024, reveals a persistent downtrend. Fundamental factors such as monetary policies and economic performances of both the U.S. and Japan continue to drive the pair, with the yen's safe-haven status playing a role in current market dynamics. The price is trading below the Ichimoku cloud and is hugging the lower Bollinger Band, signaling bearish momentum, confirmed by a MACD that is below its signal line. The RSI suggests oversold conditions, indicating a potential for a retracement. Immediate support is found at 147.530 with resistance at 148.180. Traders should exercise caution, stay informed on key economic releases, and employ rigorous risk management.


Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. It's crucial for traders to conduct their own research and consider their risk tolerance before trading.


Explore in-depth market insights and strategic trading tips by clicking here.


FXGlory
08.03.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

USD/JPY daily chart analysis for 16.05.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:

The USD-JPY chart analysis is influenced by economic indicators from both the U.S. and Japan. Recent Japanese economic data shows a contraction in GDP with the Preliminary GDP q/q at -0.5% versus the forecast of -0.3%. This indicates weaker economic activity, which generally weakens the JPY. Additionally, the GDP Price Index came in higher than expected at 3.6%, suggesting rising inflation which can pressure the Bank of Japan to adjust monetary policy. The Revised Industrial Production m/m came in below expectations, signaling weaker industrial output, which further weighs on the JPY.
In the U.S., high-impact news includes Jobless Claims with a forecast of 219k. A lower-than-expected figure would be positive for the USD as it indicates a stronger labor market. Additionally, the Building Permits and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, both of medium impact, will provide insights into the housing market and manufacturing sector's health. The Industrial Production m/m data will also be crucial as it indicates the overall industrial output, and a figure higher than the forecast of 0.1% could further strengthen the USD. Positive economic indicators from the U.S. could support the USD, especially against the backdrop of weaker Japanese data.


Price Action:

On the H4 timeframe, the USD/JPY analysis shows a marked downtrend characterized by successive lower highs and lower lows. Recently, there has been a slight recovery with the formation of a bullish candle, suggesting a possible retracement or reversal in the short term. However, the broader trend remains downward as indicated by the overall movement and the positioning of the latest price below previous resistance levels.


Key Technical Indicators:

Bollinger Bands: The bands have been widening recently, indicating increasing volatility. The price is currently near the lower band, which could suggest a potential rebound or consolidation at this level.

MACD: The MACD line is below the signal line and close to the zero line, signaling bearish momentum. However, the histogram shows a slight decrease in bearish momentum, which may suggest a possible slowdown in the downtrend.

RSI: The RSI is at 31.50 and moving upwards, indicating that the pair is close to oversold territory. This upward movement can signal a potential reversal or at least a pause in the current downtrend.


Support and Resistance:

Support: Immediate support is around 153.760, with stronger support at 151.615, which aligns with recent lows.

Resistance: Initial resistance is around 154.475, with more significant resistance at 155.905, near the mid-range of the Bollinger Bands and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.


Conclusion and Consideration:

The USD/JPY daily chart analysis is currently in a bearish trend on the H4 chart, with indicators showing potential for short-term support or a minor rebound. The fundamental usdjpy outlook favors the USD due to weaker Japanese economic data and potential positive U.S. economic reports. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels closely, along with upcoming U.S. economic data releases, to identify potential trading opportunities and manage risk effectively. Given the current technical setup, cautious optimism for a short-term bounce could be warranted, but the overall bearish trend suggests remaining vigilant for further downside risks.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FxGlory
16.05.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDJPY Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 27.05.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USD/JPY currency pair reflects the exchange rate between the US Dollar (USD) and the Japanese Yen (JPY). Today, the USD is expected to experience low liquidity due to a Bank Holiday in observance of Memorial Day. This typically leads to irregular volatility and less market activity, as US banks will be closed. On the other hand, significant volatility is anticipated for the JPY with Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda scheduled to speak. Traders will scrutinize his speech for clues on future monetary policy and interest rate changes, which could impact the value of the JPY currency.


Price Action:
The USDJPY pair analysis in the H4 timeframe shows a clear bullish trend. Over the past 10 days, the USD-JPY pair's price has been moving within an ascending channel. Recently, the price has been closer to the middle Bollinger Band line, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. The last five candles indicate a minor pullback, but the price remains within the upper half of the Bollinger Bands, maintaining a bullish stance.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: Analyzing the USDJPY's key technical indicators, the Bollinger Bands have been narrowing, which often precedes a period of low volatility followed by a breakout. The USD JPY's price has been moving in the upper half of the Bands for the last 10 days, and in the last five candles, it's getting closer to the middle line but remains above it, indicating ongoing bullish momentum albeit with caution for potential consolidation.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is slightly above the signal line but the histogram shows decreasing momentum. This suggests that while the bullish trend is intact, the buying pressure may be weakening. Traders should watch for a potential bearish crossover which could indicate a shift in momentum.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 59.42, below the overbought level of 70. This indicates that there is still room for the price to move higher before hitting overbought conditions. The RSI supports the ongoing bullish trend but suggests that the market is not yet overextended.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 156.300, which aligns with the middle Bollinger Band and a recent price consolidation area.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 157.600, which coincides with the upper boundary of the ascending channel and recent highs.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USDJPY pair on the H4 chart forecast shows sustained bullish momentum, supported by the Bollinger Bands, MACD, and RSI indicators. The USDJPY's current price action within the ascending channel indicates that the bulls are still in control, though the narrowing Bollinger Bands and weakening MACD histogram suggest caution. Traders should be mindful of the potential for increased volatility due to the BOJ Governor's speech, which could impact the JPY significantly. Given the upcoming US Bank Holiday, liquidity might be low, leading to irregular volatility.


Disclaimer: The USD-JPY's provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis of USDJPY before making any trading decisions. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it is essential to stay updated with the latest information.


FxGlory
27.05.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDJPY Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.06.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:

Today's economic releases for Japan include low-impact indicators such as Bank Lending y/y, Current Account, Final GDP Price Index y/y, Final GDP q/q, and Economy Watchers Sentiment. The USDJPY news analysis today suggests a generally stable economic environment with no significant surprises expected. The USD has no major releases today, indicating a relatively quiet day on the fundamental front, potentially leaving the currency pair more susceptible to technical movements and broader market sentiment.


Price Action:

On the H4 chart, the USDJPY forecast live today shows a recent recovery from a dip, moving upwards and breaking past several key levels. The pair is currently trading above the Ichimoku cloud, suggesting a bullish bias. The recent candles have higher highs and higher lows, indicating a potential continuation of this upward momentum.



Key Technical Indicators:

Ichimoku Cloud: The price has broken above the cloud, with the Tenkan-sen (blue line) crossing above the Kijun-sen (red line), indicating a bullish trend. The leading span lines are showing a widening, which supports the bullish momentum.

Volume: There has been an increase in buying volume, which supports the recent upward price movement. This rise in volume suggests that the market participants are confident in the upward trend.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 59.22, indicating moderate bullishness. It is not yet in the overbought territory, suggesting there is still room for further upside.


Support and Resistance:

Support Levels: The immediate support level is at 155.782, which aligns with the lower boundary of the upward trend channel.

Resistance Levels: The key resistance level is at 157.033. A break above this level could indicate a continuation of the bullish trend.


Conclusion and Consideration:

The USDJPY fundamental analysis today on the H4 chart displays signs of a bullish reversal, supported by positive signals from the Ichimoku cloud and increasing volume. The RSI suggests room for further gains, while the trendlines provide clear levels to watch for support and resistance. Traders should monitor for a breakout above the 157.033 resistance level to confirm continued bullish momentum. Considering the moderate impact of today's economic releases from Japan, the market's technical aspects are likely to dominate the price action.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FxGlory
10.06.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDJPY H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis:
The USDJPY currency pair reflects the exchange rate between the US Dollar (USD) and the Japanese Yen (JPY). Today's upcoming USD news includes several low to medium impact events such as speeches by FOMC members and data on Personal Income and Spending. Notably, the Core PCE Price Index, forecasted at 0.1%, is a crucial inflation measure for the Fed. These indicators may provide insights into future US monetary policy, potentially influencing USD volatility. For JPY, the medium impact Tokyo Core CPI is forecasted at 2.0%, and other low impact data such as Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production, and Housing Starts are expected, which could affect the JPY's performance.


Price Action:
The USDJPY pair on the H4 timeframe is experiencing a clear bullish trend, with the price reaching its highest level since 2010. The price action shows a consistent upward movement as the candles move from the lower to the middle and now the upper Bollinger Bands, indicating strong bullish momentum. Recently, the price has been moving upwards steadily, supported by a positive trend in the market.

Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR indicator shows the last three dots positioned below the candles, confirming a bullish trend. This placement indicates continued upward momentum, suggesting traders might look for buy opportunities as long as the dots remain under the price.
MACD: The MACD indicator shows the MACD line crossing above the signal line with the histogram displaying increasing momentum. This bullish crossover suggests strengthening upward momentum, which supports the ongoing bullish trend in the USDJPY pair.
Moving Averages: The short-term Moving Average (9-period, blue) has crossed above the long-term Moving Average (17-period, orange), both moving upwards. This crossover is a bullish signal, indicating that the short-term price trend is gaining strength relative to the long-term trend.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 1.36600, aligning with a recent consolidation area and the middle Bollinger Band.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 1.37481, which coincides with the 0.382 Fibonacci level and recent highs.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USDJPY pair on the H4 chart shows sustained bullish momentum, supported by the Parabolic SAR, MACD, and Moving Averages indicators. The current price action within an ascending channel indicates that the bulls are in control, with potential further gains as indicated by the key technical indicators. However, traders should remain cautious due to potential increased volatility from the upcoming economic data releases and speeches from key officials. It is essential to monitor these events closely as they could significantly impact market conditions.


Disclaimer:
The provided analysis of USDJPY is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions. Market conditions can change rapidly, and staying updated with the latest information is crucial for informed trading decisions.


FXGlory
28.06.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDJPY H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.23.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:

The USD/JPY news analysis today is influenced by several fundamental factors, including economic indicators from the United States and Japan. For the USD, upcoming data from the National Association of Realtors and the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond are crucial. Home resales, which reflect consumer confidence and economic health, can significantly impact the USD. Similarly, the Richmond Fed Index provides insights into manufacturing activity, which is vital for economic growth. For the JPY, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is a key indicator. This index reflects the health of the manufacturing sector and overall economic conditions in Japan.


Price Action:

The USD/JPY H4 chart, shows the pair's bearish trend, with recent price movements forming lower highs and lower lows. The USD/JPY pair, also known as the Gopher has its price currently trending below the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating a bearish sentiment. The pair has recently found support near 156.46 and resistance around 157.68. The formation of a descending channel suggests further downside potential unless there is a strong reversal signal.



Key Technical Indicators:

Ichimoku Cloud:

The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud on USDJPY H4 chart, indicating a bearish trend. The Tenkan-sen is below the Kijun-sen , reinforcing the bearish outlook for this pair. The Chikou Span is also below the price, further confirming the bearish sentiment for USD against JPY.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):

The MACD line is below the signal line, and the histogram is negative, indicating bearish momentum. The recent contraction of the histogram suggests a potential weakening of the bearish momentum.


Support and Resistance:

Support Levels:

The key support level is at 156.46, which has been tested multiple times and has held.

Resistance Levels:

The primary resistance level is at 157.68, with another significant level at 158.07.


Conclusion and Consideration:

The Gopher's technical analysis on the H4 chart exhibits a strong bearish trend supported by the Ichimoku Cloud and MACD indicators. The USD/JPY price action suggests a continuation of the downward movement unless a significant reversal signal occurs. Traders should watch for any breakouts above the resistance level of 157.68 or below the support level of 156.46 for potential trade opportunities. It's essential to monitor upcoming economic data releases for the USD and JPY, as these can impact the pair's direction. As always, employing proper risk management strategies, including stop losses, is crucial in this volatile market.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
07.23.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDJPY H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 08.02.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USD/JPY currency pair reflects the exchange rate between the US Dollar (USD) and the Japanese Yen (JPY). Today, the USD is poised for significant volatility with key economic releases including Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, and the Unemployment Rate. The Average Hourly Earnings forecast is at 0.3%, which is a leading indicator of consumer inflation. A higher-than-expected figure is positive for the USD. The Non-Farm Employment Change forecast stands at 176K, indicating potential job growth. The Unemployment Rate is forecasted at 4.1%, and a lower-than-expected figure would be favorable for the USD. These indicators are crucial as they impact consumer spending and overall economic health, which traders will scrutinize closely.


Price Action:
The USDJPY pair analysis on the H4 timeframe shows a clear bearish trend. The price has been consistently moving within a descending channel, highlighted by lower highs and lower lows. Recently, the price has tested the lower boundary of the channel, indicating continued bearish pressure. The presence of red candlesticks dominates, confirming the downward momentum. Traders should note the current consolidation near the lower channel line, which might suggest a potential pause or reversal, but the overall trend remains bearish.


Key Technical Indicators:
Moving Averages (MA 17 and MA 9): The 9-period MA is below the 17-period MA, indicating a bearish trend. This alignment supports the downward price movement observed in recent sessions. The convergence and subsequent crossing of the MAs have reinforced the selling pressure.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots have shifted above the candles, signaling a bearish trend. Despite a brief change indicated by two spots below the candles, the last three dots have switched back above, confirming the resumption of the bearish trend.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line has crossed below the signal line, indicating bearish momentum. The histogram supports this with increasing negative values, suggesting that the selling pressure is intensifying. This bearish crossover aligns with the overall downward trend of the pair.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 148.514, a level that has been tested multiple times recently. This support aligns with the lower boundary of the descending channel and a critical consolidation area.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 150835, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This level has acted as a significant barrier in recent attempts to reverse the trend.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USDJPY pair on the H4 chart indicates sustained bearish momentum, supported by the alignment of the moving averages, Parabolic SAR, and MACD indicators. The USDJPY price action within the descending channel suggests that the bears are still in control. Traders should consider the impact of the upcoming US economic data releases, which could introduce significant volatility and potentially alter the trend dynamics. It is crucial to monitor these indicators and adjust positions accordingly.


Disclaimer: The USDJPY provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it is essential to stay updated with the latest information. Always consider risk management strategies and consult with a financial advisor if necessary.


FXGlory
08.02.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

USD/JPY H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 08.27.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The upcoming economic data releases from both the US and Japan are set to influence the USD/JPY pair's direction prediction. In the US, key indicators such as the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, HPI m/m, CB Consumer Confidence, and Richmond Manufacturing Index will be released. The S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y is expected to show a slight decrease from 6.8% to 6.2%, indicating a cooling in the housing market. Meanwhile, the CB Consumer Confidence index is expected to rise to 100.9 from a previous 100.3, suggesting improved consumer sentiment. The Richmond Manufacturing Index is projected to show an improvement from -17 to -14, which still indicates contraction but at a slower pace. These mixed data points could create a volatile trading environment for the USD.
On the Japanese side, the Services Producer Price Index (SPPI) y/y is forecasted to slightly decrease from 3.0% to 2.9%, signaling a potential slowdown in price pressures; which stands as an important forecast element for this fore pair. The BOJ Core CPI y/y is expected to remain stable at 2.1%, suggesting persistent inflation concerns within Japan. The stable inflation rate and the recent dovish stance of the Bank of Japan could continue to exert downward pressure on the JPY.


Price Action:
The USD/JPY pair is forming a bearish flag pattern on the H4 chart after a significant bearish wave, which suggests a potential continuation of the downward trend. The price is currently consolidating within this pattern, and a breakout to the downside could accelerate the bearish momentum. However, the presence of bullish technical indicators points to a possible short-term corrective wave.


Key Technical Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 41.70, indicating bearish sentiment, yet it is not in the oversold territory, suggesting room for further downside before a reversal might occur.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The Stochastic is approaching the 70 level, indicating potential for a bullish wave in the short term if it crosses above this threshold. This could signal a temporary upward correction within the broader bearish trend.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: The nearest support is at the lower trendline of the bearish flag pattern, around 144.00. A break below this level could see the pair testing the next support near 142.50, which aligns with previous lows.
Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is at the upper trendline of the bearish flag, around 145.00. A break above this level could target the next resistance at 146.50, potentially invalidating the bearish flag pattern and signaling a bullish reversal.



Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD/JPY H4 chart suggests that the pair is consolidating within a bearish flag pattern, with potential for further downside if key support levels are breached. Traders should closely monitor the upcoming economic data releases from both the US and Japan, as these could provide the catalyst for the next major move. Given the mixed signals from technical indicators and fundamental outlook, traders should be prepared for both bearish and short-term bullish scenarios, adapting their strategies accordingly to the evolving market conditions.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
08.27.2024

 

[TOP1Markets]

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the most actively traded currencies in the world, known for its role as a “safe-haven” currency and its influence in the forex market. In recent years, the tương lai đồng yên Nhật (future of the Japanese Yen) has been closely watched by both investors and economists, given the country’s economic policies and global economic shifts. This article delves into the potential future trends for the Yen, considering the current economic landscape, government policies, and global market conditions.

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDJPY H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.10.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USD/JPY currency pair, also known as the “Gopher,” always has its daily fundamental forecast significantly influenced by monetary policy from both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Today, several key events, including speeches by Federal Reserve members, like Susan Collins and Mary Daly, are expected to provide subtle clues regarding future US monetary policy, which could impact USD volatility. Hawkish commentary from these officials could strengthen the USD. In contrast, the BoJ’s recent measures to stabilize lending and corporate price adjustments will affect JPY strength, as traders monitor Japan's economic performance. Inflation reports and unemployment data from the US are also set to influence market movements in the short term, further shaping the USD/JPY direction.


Price Action:
On the USD/JPY H4 candle chart, we can see the pair’s bullish trend, moving within a rising channel. The Gopher’s price action is consistently making higher highs and higher lows, reflecting its strong bullish momentum. The pair is approaching a key resistance level at 149.860, which, if broken, could signal continued bullish pressure toward the 150.915 level. However, a rejection from this level could see a retracement back toward the lower boundary of the ascending channel.


Key Technical Indicators:
Stochastic Oscillator: The stochastic is hovering in overbought territory, currently around 91.17, signaling potential exhaustion in the uptrend. This could mean a possible short-term pullback or correction is on the horizon before any further USDJPY upward movement.
Volume: Recent volume analysis shows a gradual increase in bullish activity, supporting the ongoing uptrend. However, any divergence between the pair’s price action and its volume could hint at a reversal or weakening of the trend.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: The first support level is at 148.929, aligned with the lower boundary of the ascending channel. A break below this level could lead to further declines, testing the support at 148.200.
Resistance Levels: The next key resistance is located at 149.860, with the potential for further movement toward 150.915 if bullish momentum continues.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD/JPY analysis today is clearly displaying strong bullish momentum on its H4 chart, driven by the pair’s fundamental and technical factors. Traders should keep an eye on the upcoming speeches by Fed officials, which may provide insight into future interest rate decisions that could push the pair higher. However, with the stochastic oscillator in overbought territory, caution is advised, as there may be a short-term pullback before a continuation of the upward trend. Monitoring support levels and key resistance around 149.860 will be essential for determining potential trading opportunities. Implementing proper risk management strategies, including stop-losses near key support levels, is crucial given the market’s volatility.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
10.10.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDJPY H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.25.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USD/JPY forex trading pair, often referred to as the "Ninja," is influenced heavily by both U.S. and Japanese economic releases. For today’s USDJPY news analysis, traders are focusing on U.S. Durable Goods Orders and Japanese inflation data, specifically Tokyo's CPI. If U.S. data beats expectations, it may strengthen the USD, pushing USD/JPY prices higher, while a stronger-than-forecast CPI in Japan could bolster the JPY, potentially leading to downward pressure on the pair. Furthermore, the upcoming Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI) release from Japan also offers insight into inflation trends, which may influence the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy stance, indirectly affecting the yen's value against the dollar. These economic events are key for traders monitoring the Ninja for short-term trading opportunities.


Price Action:
On the USD/JPY H4 candle chart, the price shows a clear uptrend, moving within an ascending channel. The Ninja’s price action today indicates some consolidation as the pair trades near the upper boundary of the channel. The price briefly tested resistance levels around 153.070 but has since pulled back slightly, suggesting profit-taking or hesitation among traders. This could either be a pause before a continuation of the uptrend or a sign of a potential reversal if bearish momentum picks up.


Key Technical Indicators:
MACD: The MACD histogram is positive, and the MACD line is above the signal line, indicating a USD-JPY bullish trend. However, the recent narrowing of the histogram bars suggests that bullish strength might be weakening, and traders should monitor for any potential bearish crossovers which could signal a shift in trend.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently around 56, indicating moderate bullishness. As long as the RSI remains above the 50 level, the bullish momentum remains intact, but if the RSI begins to dip below this level, it may suggest growing bearish pressure and the possibility of a correction.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: The nearest support level is at 151.568, followed by a stronger support at 151.051, which aligns with the lower boundary of the ascending channel.
Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is observed at 152.047, and further resistance lies at 153.070, which has previously acted as a barrier to higher prices. A break above this level could open the path toward higher highs.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD/JPY forecast today shows the pair is currently consolidating within an uptrend on its H4 chart, with technical indicators showing moderate bullishness but also signaling caution as momentum appears to be slowing. Traders should closely watch upcoming U.S. and Japanese economic data releases, as they could provide the catalyst for the next USDJPY fundamental move. A break above the 153.070 resistance could confirm continued bullish momentum, while a failure to maintain the channel’s support may signal a correction. Proper risk management is advised, especially around key economic events that may increase volatility.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
10.25.2024