Forex market today

[Polakandil]

What are the prospects for gold prices in 2025?

Gold price is now trading at around $2623 moving below the middle band line. At the end of 2024, the gold price drew a bullish candle with a body larger than the previous bearish candle. Price formed a high of $2627, a low of $2602, and closed at $2623 on FXOpen. Gold prices tend to move in a range during the Christmas and New Year holidays.

The price of gold fell to a low of $2536 in mid-November in the wake of the Fed's projections about future policy on slowing interest rate cuts due to the possibility of higher inflation as a result of President Trump's protectionist policies. Gold however again bounced back drawing a range top of $2725 and hit a low of $2584 in December.

What are the prospects for gold in 2025? According to Goldman Sachs, gold can reach $3000, this institution has entered gold as a top commodity for 2025 because President Trump's policies could risk launching a trade war against several countries and gold is one of the safe-haven assets that is an option amidst uncertainty.

In line with Goldman Sachs, Macquarie Group Ltd also estimates that gold can reach $3000 even though in the first quarter gold prices slackened due to the strengthening of the USD. Meanwhile, analysts from UBS Group AG project that gold can reach $2900 by the end of 2025.

Meanwhile, according to Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) analysts, the outlook for gold in 2025 is a long gold spot with a prediction that gold can reach US$3000 in 2025, which is supported by risk factors. geopolitics and the US as a global asset that is under challenge. Meanwhile, demand for central bank gold from developing countries is expected to rise, triggered by concerns about sanctions.

On a quarterly basis, MUFG predicts the average gold price could reach US$2,750 per ounce in the first quarter, then US$2,850 in the second quarter, US$3,050 in the third quarter, and US$3,080 in the fourth quarter of 2025. On an annual basis, the average gold price in In 2025 it could reach US$2,939 per ounce, an increase compared to the average 2024 prediction of US$2,410. In 2026, the average gold price is predicted to reach US$3,280 per ounce.

 

[Polakandil]

The pound sterling is under pressure from the strengthening of the USD in early 2025

Yesterday, the GBP/USD currency pair drew a bearish candle with a long body crossing the lower band line indicating a strong downtrend. Price formed a high of 1.25406, a low of 1.23522, and closed at 1.23779.

On the monthly time frame, we can see that GBPUSD started its decline in October ahead of the US election, which was held on November 5, until it was still extending its decline at the beginning of January.

The strengthening of the USD seems to continue after the New Year holidays. The dollar index (DXY) which tracks the USD against six major currencies rose to a high of 109.533 from a low of 108.267.

In December, the UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed actual data of 47.0 lower than the expected 47.3 and previous similar data. According to S&P Global, the manufacturing contraction is due to weak market confidence and operational restructuring in response to upcoming legislative changes impacting output and demand.

Risk aversion is also another reason investors choose safer assets due to concerns about central bank policy and geopolitical risk tensions.

Today investors will focus on some minor but possibly relevant UK economic data with GBP, M4 Money Supply, Mortgage Approvals, and Net Lending to Individuals. Meanwhile, the US will release ISM Manufacturing PMI data which is predicted to fall to 48.2 from the previous data of 48.4. Meanwhile, ISM Manufacturing Prices are predicted to rise to 51.5 from the previous 50.3.

 

[Polakandil]

EURUSD rebounds after meeting 1.0247 support, further decline is possible

On Friday's trading, the EURUSD pair rose drawing a bullish candle from the low of 1.02620 to the high of 1.03099 and closed at 1.03066. Even though it is rising, this increase still draws a lower high than the previous candle which drew a bearish candle with a low of 1.02247 which is the current support point. Breaking the support level allows the pair to fall deeper.

Market experts see the currency pair falling further to parity levels due to the divergence of views of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank on the monetary policy outlook. On the one side, the Fed is predicted to reduce interest rates more slowly in 2025. On the other hand, the ECB sees a continuation of the policy easing cycle at the current pace.

Looking at the latest dot plot in the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections, stakeholders see the Federal funds rate heading toward 3.9% by the end of the year. This has indicated policymakers will only cut interest rates twice in 2025. According to the CME group's Fedwatch tool, the Fed did not change interest rates at its January meeting with the probability of reaching 88.8% while the probability of interest rates falling is only 11.2%.

The Fed's dovish forecast is driven by Trump's inflation-boosting policies such as strict immigration, higher import tariffs, and lower taxes.

Meanwhile, the dollar index (DXY), which previously rose at 109,533, saw a slight decline to 108,922. The Dollar Index is a benchmark for tracking the value of the USD against six major currencies.

Today investors' focus is on the EURUSD pair regarding German Prelim CPI data which is predicted to rise 0.3% from the previous revision of -0.2%.

 

[Polakandil]

USD/CHF records two days of losses as Swiss Real Retail Sales increase

Yesterday the USDCHF currency pair drew a bearish candle extending the decline of the previous candle at the weekend. Price has formed a high of 0.91047 and a low of 0.90085 closing at 1.90447.

Swiss Retail Sales increased 0.8% YoY in November, compared to 1.2% expected and 1.5% last. Even though it was beyond expectations, data from the US was the reason for the weakening of the USD yesterday. The US Final Services PMI was only 56.8 lower than the expected 58.5 the same as the previous data revision.

The dollar index (DXY) recorded a decline yesterday from 109,069 to a low of 107,750. The dollar index value is used to track the USD currency with six other currencies.

Apart from the influence of the weakening US dollar, the strengthening of the Swiss Franc was also due to increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Considering the Swiss Franc is a safe-haven currency.

On Friday, the US manufacturing sector continued to contract in December, albeit at a slower pace, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI improved to 49.3 from 48.4 in November. This figure exceeded market expectations of 48.4.

However, the US dollar is still expected to strengthen. The Fed is expected not to reduce interest rates at its meeting at the end of January. In the latest dot plot in the Fed's Digest of Economic Projections, policymakers anticipate the Federal Funds Rate reaching 3.9% by the end of this year, indicating expectations of only two rate cuts in 2025.

According to data from the CME group's Fedwatch tool, the possibility of the Fed not changing interest rates in the January meeting is 93.1%, and only a 6.9% possibility of a rate cut.

Fed officials will be more cautious about their approach to rate cuts throughout 2025. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin highlighted that benchmark interest rates should remain tight until there is greater confidence that inflation will return to the 2% target

Today investors will focus on Swiss CPI data which is expected to fall -0.1%, the same as the previous revision. Meanwhile, data from the US focuses on ISM Services PMI and JOLTS Job Openings which may have a direct impact on currency performance.

 

[Polakandil]

AUD/USD is back under pressure after rising on Monday

Ahead of the release of Australian inflation data yesterday, the AUDUSD pair fell, drawing a bearish candle with a long shadow on the top candle, indicating buyer pressure was getting resistance. The AUDUSD currency pair formed a high of 0.62882, a low of 0.62279, and closed at 0.62291.

The Australian Dollar experienced an increase from its lowest level for three consecutive days as it received support from a moderate decline in the US Dollar even though Building Permit data for November was weaker than forecast.

The dollar index (DXY) has now returned to a rise at 108.683 from a low of 107.548. On the other hand, the prospect of a slower Fed rate cut and rising US bond yields supports USD buyers.

While US and China trade war concerns may lead the RBA to a dovish shift that could limit the Australian dollar's gains. The uncertainty of President Trump's tariff plans still worries investors to be more defensive.

On the other hand, the Fed indicated that it would slow down the pace of reducing interest rates in 2025. The US central bank is expected not to reduce interest rates at its January meeting.

Today investors will pay attention to Australian CPI data which is expected to be 2.2% from the previous revision of 2.1%. And US economic data ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is expected to fall 139k from the previous revision of 146k, and Unemployment Claims data is expected to rise 214k from the previous 211k.

 

[Polakandil]

Gold prices rise alert to FOMC minutes

Yesterday the gold price drew a bullish candle with a medium body and a small shadow on the top of the candle extending the previous rise. Gold price formed a high of $2669, a low of $2645, and a close of $2661. The raising in gold prices crossed the 50 MA from the downside.

One of the triggers for the raising of gold prices is thought to be related to tariff plans. President Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to provide legal justification for a large number of universal tariffs on allies and enemies. The International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA) would unilaterally authorize the president to manage imports during national emergencies.

The news increased demand for US dollars, and the dollar index (DXY) showed an increase from a low of 108.552 to a high of 109.376 due to the market response to demand for US dollars.

Meanwhile, US jobs data Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed that job vacancies unexpectedly increased to 8.098 million on the last day of November from the previous 7.839 million.

Other US data ADP Non-Farm Employment Change showed actual data of 122k lower than the expected 139k and much lower than a previous revision of 146k. Meanwhile, Unemployment Claims showed actual data of 201k lower than the expected 214k and the previous revision of 211k.

On the other hand, the rise in gold was triggered by demand from China's central bank, a commodity analyst stated that the PBoC held 73.29 million troy ounces in December, from 72.96 million in the previous month.

Gold gains stalled at a $2669 high as gold buyers seemed uncommitted ahead of the FOMC Meeting Minutes. This seems to show caution ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes could lead to a change in direction.

 

[Polakandil]

The weakening of the Japanese Yen slowed slightly as wage data spurred speculation of an interest rate hike in January

Yesterday the USDJPY pair drew a small bearish candle with a slight shadow at the bottom of the candle. Price formed a high of 158,399, a low of 157,574, and a close of 158,111 on FXOpen.

The position of the Japanese Yen strengthened slightly on Thursday after breaking through 158,550. The strengthening of the Japanese Yen is suspected because the Average cash earnings of Japanese wage data read stronger than expected for November. This gave rise to opinions that spurred speculation of an interest rate increase in January.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda previously signaled that they would hold wage negotiations in March before deciding on an increase. But ING analysts said the case was growing for a hike in January, although it would still be a tough call.

Meanwhile, yesterday's FOMC minutes showed that policymakers were increasingly aiming for a slower pace of interest rate cuts in 2025. This was due to concerns that President Donald Trump's expansionary policies could potentially support inflation. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the Fed's probability of leaving interest rates unchanged is 93.1% at its January 29, 2025 meeting.

In the other hand, the dollar index (DXY) which tracks the USD currency against six major currencies rose slightly from a low of 106,940 to a high of 109,375.

Today investors will pay attention to US news data on Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, and Unemployment Rate.

 

[Polakandil]

CHF/JPY plunged on Friday amid BOJ officials cautious about raising interest rates

The CHFJPY cross pair at the weekend trade plummeted drawing a bearish long-body candle crossing the MA 200 from the upside. Price formed a high of 173,667, a low of 171,694, and a closing of 171,694. The price at market opening rose slightly to around 171,997.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) seems to still be considering the interest rate decision in January's monetary policy. Bloomberg reports, that BoJ officials are still carefully assessing data ahead of the January meeting, considering raising their core-core inflation outlook for Fiscal 2024 and Fiscal 2025 and considering raising inflation forecasts due to the weakening Yen.

On the other hand, the Federal Reserve's (The Fed) hawkish shift led to a widening of the US-Japan yield gap, which turned out to be another factor that weakened the JPY lower. The Fed is not expected to change interest rates at its meeting in late January.

Apart from that, investors will also be careful amid concerns about the risk of a trade war and continued geopolitical risks and speculation that the Japanese authorities may carry out currency intervention to support the domestic currency which might restrain the JPY's decline.

Real wages fell for the fourth month in a row in November and suggest widespread inflationary pressures, opening the door for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan in January or March.

On the other hand, the Swiss Unemployment Rate rose 2.8% from the previous revision of 2.6%, then investors are waiting for the release of consumer confidence which is predicted to be -35 from the previous -37. Today the Japanese Bank Holiday is closed in observance of Coming-of-Age Day which may reduce the volume of Japanese Yen transactions.

 

[Polakandil]

The price of gold drops and bounces after reaching the upper band line

In yesterday's trading session, the gold price drew a bearish candle with a long body indicating a strong decline. Price formed a high of $2692 a low of $2656 a close of $2662.

On Friday Gold prices briefly rose at $2,697.88, as a solid United States (US) monthly employment report encouraged risk aversion.

NFP data showed America added 256k new jobs in December, while the Unemployment Rate fell slightly to 4.1%. Meanwhile, Average Hourly Earnings rose by 3.9%, down from 4% previously.

The US economic data suggests the Fed will keep interest rates on hold for longer. High interest rates are usually a negative for non-yielding precious metals, but investors are bracing for more volatility ahead of President Trump's return to the White House on January 20.

In terms of geopolitical risk factors, the latest issue is that ceasefire negotiations are progressing positively, with Israel reportedly agreeing to withdraw troops from the Gaza Strip. Quoting the Haaretz newspaper on Monday, January 13, 2025, the Israeli military (IDF) has endorsed several plans for the rapid withdrawal of their troops from Gaza in response to progress in negotiations.

Today investors will also pay attention to US PPI news which is predicted to be the same as the previous revision.

 

[Polakandil]

GBP/USD appears a reversal pattern near the lower band

The GBPUSD pair fell to a low of 1.20998 on Monday, but there was buying pressure which then brought the price to a close at 1.22014 and drew a long wick at the bottom of the candle like a Pinbar. Yesterday the price was still drawing an indecision candle with a high of 1.22501, a low of 1.21376, close at 1.22124 near the lower band. The RSI level showing a value of 30 is considered the oversold zone level.

Yesterday's release of US PPI data showed producer inflation grew slower than expected in December, weighing on the USD and bringing the dollar index (DXY) to depreciate from 109.570 to 109.178. Economists expect the core PPI to rise to 3.8%. Month-on-month headline PPI rose modestly by 0.2%, while core PPI remained flat.

On the other hand, the Fed's expectation that it will reduce interest rate cuts this year is still driving the strengthening of the USD. According to the CME group's Fedwatch tool, the probability of the Fed not reducing interest rates at its January 29 meeting is 97.3% and the probability of a decrease is only 2.7%.

Today investors will focus on UK and US inflation data, the UK annual CPI is estimated at 2.6%, the same as the previous period. Meanwhile, the US CPI is expected to rise 2.9% from the previous 2.7%.

 

[Polakandil]

The AUD/USD pair extends gains ahead of the release of unemployment rate data

Yesterday the AUDUSD pair drew a bullish candle with a slightly long body extending the previous increase. This pair experienced three consecutive days of increases since Monday at the start of this week. Yesterday the price formed a high of 0.62466, a low of 0.61812, and closed at 0.62251. The price increase of the AUDUSD pair has crossed the middle band line from the downside.

Although in the long term, the Australian dollar tends to weaken against the US dollar, this week for three consecutive days the Australian dollar strengthened trying to gain balance against the US dollar. The US dollar's strong rally began in October due to the influence of President Trump.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the USD currency against six major currencies, was a surprise after the release of US CPI data which brought the DXY down to a low of 108,602 from a high of 109,346. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar extends its weekly rebound further above the 0.6200 mark, opening doors to test the 0.6300 hurdle in the short term.

On the other hand, the RBA will consider lowering interest rates in February, citing sluggish economic momentum and reduced inflation risks, even though the chance is only 62%. Australia faces the challenges of weaker-than-expected Q3 GDP growth and a decline in consumer rates in January. Sluggish commodity prices and concerns about China's economic slowdown are weighing on Australia as China is one of the main drivers of Australia's exports.

Today investors will focus on Australian jobs data and US retail sales as well as jobless claims.

Australia's Employment Change is estimated to add 14.5k from the previous data of 35.6k with the Unemployment Rate forecast to rise 4.0% from the previous 3.9%.

Meanwhile, US Core Retail Sales are forecast at 0.5% from the previous 0.2%, and unemployment claims are forecast to rise by 210k from the previous 201k.

 

[Polakandil]

GBP/JPY lost ground for the second day in a row under pressure from UK GDP

Yesterday the GBPJPY pair drew a bearish candle with a long body extending the previous candle. The price of the GBPJPY pair formed a high of 191,540, a low of 189,638, closing at 189,731. The pair extended its decline for the second day in a row after ending consolidation near the lower band.

The UK economy returned to growth in November, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rising by 0.1%, after contracting 0.1% in October. However, this fell short of market expectations for a 0.2% expansion. The Services Index for October remained unchanged at 0% q/q, compared with 0.1% in October. In November, Monthly Industrial Production and Manufacturing fell by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, with both figures coming in below market expectations.

On the other hand, investors increased their expectations of a BoE interest rate cut after data showed an unexpected decline in inflation even though it was still above the 2% inflation target. The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.5% year-over-year in December, down from 2.6% in November and below market forecasts of 2.7%.

From Japan, the JPY's strengthening was supported by increasing expectations of a BoJ interest rate hike next week. According to Bloomberg, citing unnamed sources, the BoJ is likely to raise interest rates next week unless there is significant market disruption after the inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump.

Today investors are waiting for the release of UK retail sales data with expectations of an increase of 0.4% from the previous 0.2%.

 

[Polakandil]

Gap down on the USD/CNH pair at market opening this week

In weekend trading the USDCNH pair drew a bearish candle with a short body and shadows on the top and bottom of the candle with a high of 7.3577, a low of 7.3329, a close of 7.3404 on FXOpen. At market opening, there is a gap down, the opening price is far below the previous closing price. Today's opening price was at 7.3285 and tried to rise to recover the gap.

Traders today will be looking forward to the inauguration of Donald Trump as American president with the possibility that there will be important information regarding the level and size of incoming import tariffs. Analysts estimate that these import tariffs will increase inflation and impose obstacles on America's trading partners to some extent. Especially against China, which in the Trump campaign will increase tariffs to more than 60%. Of course, this will affect China's exports to America at higher costs.

In two weeks the Yuan currency strengthened slightly, this was supported by China's GDP annual growth of 5.4% in the fourth quarter was the best in 18 months and exceeded expectations by almost half a percent, indicating the fiscal stimulus in 2024 has been successful.

US economic growth is still better than China's, but the US will face challenges from inflation which is expected to soar. Unemployment in China remains relatively high at 5.1% compared to 4.1% in the United States.

Investors may be waiting to see how geopolitical developments will develop after Trump implements import tariffs, this could trigger a trade war between China and the US again with escalation in the next few weeks.

Today China will release the 1-y Loan Prime Rate which is predicted to be the same as the previous revision of 4.10% and the 5-y Loan Prime Rate is predicted to be 3.60%. Investors use this data for currency valuation and predicting how interest rates will change in the future.

 

[Polakandil]

USD/CAD plunges amid Trump's inauguration

Yesterday the USDCAD pair drew a bearish long-body candle and a small shadow at the bottom of the candle. The candlestick represents the weakening of the USD and the strengthening of the Canadian Dollar amidst Trump's inauguration as US president. The price of the USDCAD pair formed a high of 1.44850, a low of 1.42611, and a close of 1.43111. The dollar index (DXY) fell from a high of 109.35 to a low of 107.92 amid Trump's inauguration. The dollar index is used to measure the performance of the US dollar against six major currencies.

Even though yesterday's US bank holiday was in commemoration of Martin Luther King Jr. Day, Trump's inauguration gave a boost to the financial markets where investors were looking forward to this moment and seeing developments in Trump's speech at his inauguration. This weekend has already seen Trump in the spotlight. His pledges to issue nearly 100 executive orders on the first day mean that traders and investors will have a lot to consider as they assess the market's future potential.

Many investors worry that Trump's policy on tariffs could spark a trade war, but Trump's words may help ease some of the fears that have been present in financial markets of late, as claims of constructive discussions with Xi Jinping signal a perhaps less confrontational approach to tariffs than previously suggested. worried.

Today Canada will release the CPI which is expected to fall -0.7% from the previous 0.0%. Median CPI is expected to fall 2.5% from the previous 2.6%. Annual Trimmed CPI is expected to fall 2.5% from the previous 2.7% and annual Common CPI is also expected to fall 1.9% from the previous 2.0%.

 

[Polakandil]

Gold prices rose after President Trump threatened tariffs on Canada and Mexico

The XAUUSD or gold pair jumped up drawing a bullish long body candle in yesterday's trading. Gold price formed a high $2745 low $2702 closing at $2743 on FXOpen. The price has reached a new high in four weeks.

Trump's statement seems to have a high impact on financial markets. After his inauguration as US president in 2025, he has already threatened to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and China as soon as February, as well as on silver and gold. The possibility of increasing tariffs on silver and gold has caused market uncertainty and pushed futures contract trading to higher levels. Reuters reports President Trump confirmed that universal tariffs on all imports into the US are also being considered and will come later.

The dollar index (DXY), which measures the US dollar against six major currencies, is now in the range of 107.94-107.98 and shows a decline from the previous level of 110.18 on January 13.

In the future, the focus will likely remain on developments at the White House with the release of major economic data. Meanwhile, traders will also prepare to focus on the Fed meeting on January 28-29 where interest rates are forecast to remain unchanged.

 

[Polakandil]

USD/CAD turmoil amid Trump's tariff threats against Canada

On January 21 after Trump's inauguration, the USDCAD pair drew a candlestick resembling an inverted hammer, the price drew a bear candle with a small body and a long shadow at the top of the candle and a short shadow at the bottom of the candle. Price formed a high of 1.45147, a low of 1.42889, a close of 1.43170. Yesterday this pair tried to rise, drawing a bullish candle with half the length of the previous candle's body. USDCAD price formed a high of 1.43910 and a low of 1.43007 closing at 1.43809.

After his inauguration as US president in 2025, Trump threatened to impose tariffs on Canada of 25% that would take effect in February. Canada exports almost all its oil to the United States and perhaps this is driving oil. Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Tuesday that his government was ready to respond to all scenarios if Trump imposed tariffs on Canada.

The overall appeal of the Canadian dollar remains weak against the US dollar, with investors forecasting the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates 25 basis points to 3% following the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December, which showed that annual inflation slowed to 1.8%.

On the other hand, the Fed is predicted to maintain interest rates at its meeting on January 28-29. According to the CME group's Fedwatch tool, the probability of the Fed not changing interest rates is 99.5% and the probability of reducing interest rates is only 0.5%.

Meanwhile, the dollar index (DXY) rose slightly from a low of 107,749 to 108,274.

Today investors will also focus on the release of Canadian retail sales data and US unemployment claims in addition to President Trump's speech whose policies could affect financial markets.

 

[Polakandil]

Traders are waiting for the BOJ policy rate for the EUR/JPY pair to stabilize at around 162,500

The movement of the EURJPY currency pair is near the middle band line. Yesterday the price drew a medium-body bearish candle with small shadows on the top and bottom of the candle. Price has formed a high of 163,126 low of 162,189 closing 162,472. The price briefly reached a high of 163,214 Wednesday but failed to extend its rise.

The pair's rise was supported by the risk-on sentiment in the financial markets. Investors today will focus on the Bank of Japan's interest rate policy which is expected to rise 0.50% from the previous 0.25%. An increase in interest rates can cause a currency to strengthen. Furthermore, the market will also pay attention to the BoJ report and monetary policy statement which may provide direction for future economic policy.

Meanwhile, Europe will release several important economic data today from European countries such as France and Germany which will release Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI. French Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 42.4 from the previous 41.9, while the services PMI is predicted to be the same as the previous period at 49.3. Meanwhile, the German Flash Manufacturing PMI is also expected to rise to 42.7 from the previous 42.5. And the services PMI is expected to be 51.1 from the previous 51.2. Overall, the European PMI is expected to rise.

Today other countries that will release PMI data include the UK and the United States which may also influence the overall market.

 

[Polakandil]

Gold maintains bullishness at the weekend

During weekend, the Gold's price rose, drawing a bullish candle with a shadow on the top candle. Price formed a high $2785 low $2752 close at $2770 on FXOpen. Now the price is slightly down at $2767.

The rise in gold prices amid news about Trump's policies on the day of his inauguration made it difficult for the US dollar to find demand and helped gold rise slightly. on Monday that President Trump would refrain from announcing tariffs on day one, and officials within the Trump administration confirmed the claim, explaining that agencies would be tasked with investigating and correcting persistent trade deficits while addressing unfair trade and currency policies by other countries. The Wall Street Journal reported.

Trump will consider imposing 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, which is why safe-haven flows dominated action in financial markets, while US bonds fell below 4.6%.

The market will also still be waiting for the Fed's meeting on January 29, which is expected by the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged, this may weigh somewhat on gold.

Today investors will focus on China's PMI data, where Manufacturing PMI is expected to be the same as the previous period at 50.1 and Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to be 52.1, lower than the previous 52.2.

 

[Polakandil]

Trump's tariff concerns are the reason for the strengthening of the Swiss franc

The USD/CHF pair yesterday drew a bearish candlestick with a long body and a shadow at the bottom of the candle. Price formed a high of 0.90728, a low of 0.89651, close at 0.90146. USDCHF moved to the downside breaking lower band line and bounced near MA 50.

The dollar index (DXY) fell drawing a bearish indecision candle with a small body with shadows on the top and bottom of the candle falling from 107,810 to a low of 106,969 closing 107,328. Traders assess this as the impact of US President Donald Trump's tariff plans at the start of the week,

US President Donald Trump on Sunday imposed sweeping countermeasures against Colombia, including tariffs and sanctions, after the South American country refused to allow two military planes carrying deported migrants to land. On the other hand, the prospect of high tariffs on goods from countries including China, Canada, Mexico and the Eurozone has sparked concerns about inflation,

On the Swiss side, a very dovish monetary policy could weigh on the CHF. SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel said the SNB doesn't like negative interest rates but if it has to do it it will do it.

On the other hand, tensions, geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict could increase safe-haven demand, which benefits CHF.

Today's news is one of the focuses of SNB investors Chairman Schlegel Speaks in interview conducted by Swiss TV. Meanwhile, on the USD side, we are waiting for CB Consumer Confidence news which is expected to rise to 105.7 from the previous 104.7.

 

[Polakandil]

Ahead of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Japanese Yen limits strengthening

Yesterday the USDJPY pair drew a bullish candle with a long body small shadow on the top of the candle. Price formed a high of 155,976, a low of 154,434, closing at 155,492. The Japanese Yen strengthened and brought the USDJPY pair down to a low of 153,713 on previous days.

The Japanese yen weakened due to concerns that Trump's tariff policy had benefited the US dollar. Trump said he would soon impose tariffs on pharmaceutical, computer chip and metal manufacturers in the near future. This policy has revived fears of a trade war that could affect global growth. Trump's tariff policy is also seen to spur inflationary pressures in the US and trigger US Treasury yields and help the US dollar recover from its lowest level in more than a month. Trump previously ordered his administration to impose emergency tariffs of 25% on Colombian imports, although the tariffs were postponed after Colombia agreed to accept all illegal migrants returned from the US without restrictions.

The dollar index (DXY) is now 107.9195 after tumbling to a low of 106.969. The dollar index is used to measure the strengthening of the US dollar against six major currencies and this can provide an idea of the USD's position in the financial market.

Today we are waiting for the Japanese economic schedule in the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. However, rumors circulating seem to suggest that the different policy expectations of the BoJ and the Fed could limit JPY losses and limit USD. The BOJ will continue to raise policy rates and adjust the level of monetary accommodation if the outlook presented at its January meeting materializes. On the other hand, the Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at the FOMC meeting tomorrow.