Daily Market Forecast By Capitalcore

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EURUSD Price Action Analysis Trading Strategies and Outlook

The EUR/USD, often referred to as the "Fiber," is the most traded currency pair in the forex market, representing the economies of the Eurozone and the United States. As the world's most liquid currency pair, it is highly sensitive to macroeconomic indicators and central bank policies. Today's fundamental outlook for EUR-USD is influenced by key U.S. data releases, including the Core PCE Price Index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. If inflation comes in higher than forecast, it could strengthen the USD as it would increase the likelihood of further Fed tightening. Additionally, the U.S. Employment Cost Index will provide insight into labor costs, another key factor for inflation. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman's speech could also bring volatility if any hawkish remarks suggest further rate hikes. Personal income and spending data will be crucial in assessing consumer strength, with higher spending potentially reinforcing a stronger dollar. Meanwhile, the Chicago PMI will shed light on business activity. If today's U.S. economic indicators come in stronger than expected, the USD could gain momentum, pressuring EUR USD lower.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
From a technical analysis perspective, the H4 EUR/USD chart shows a clear shift in trend dynamics. The Fiber pair had been in a strong uptrend (green trendline) but encountered resistance near the 1.0545 Fibonacci retracement level (23.6%), leading to a pullback. Currently, the price has broken below the Ichimoku cloud, which is still green but narrowing; indicating a weakening bullish momentum. The EUR USD price is hovering inside the cloud, testing the critical 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (1.0398), which is acting as an important support level. This area aligns with previous price reactions and the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud, making it a potential turning point. If this support level holds, EURUSD might consolidate before a potential bullish attempt. However, a clear breakdown below the cloud would confirm a bearish shift. The RSI is currently around 43.46, reflecting weak momentum, and the downward slope suggests further bearish potential unless it finds support. The short-term outlook remains cautious, with 1.0398 as a key level to watch; a decisive break below could accelerate selling pressure towards 1.0311 (Fib 0.786), while a rebound could bring another test of 1.0457 resistance.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

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USDJPY Price Action Signals Possible Bearish Continuation

The USD/JPY currency pair, often referred to as the "Ninja," represents the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen, two of the world's most traded currencies. This forex pair is heavily influenced by macroeconomic factors, including monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. Today, upcoming U.S. economic data, including JOLTS Job Openings and Factory Orders, will provide key insights into labor market strength and industrial activity, potentially impacting the dollar's direction. Additionally, FOMC members Bostic and Daly’s speeches could offer further clarity on future interest rate decisions, shaping market sentiment. Meanwhile, Japan's Monetary Base and 10-year bond auction may give traders clues about potential shifts in the Bank of Japan's stance, adding to the volatility of the USDJPY price action.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the USD/JPY H4 chart, the price remains within a well-defined bearish channel. A recent bullish breakout attempt failed to hold above the channel’s upper boundary, and the USD-JPY’s price has now re-entered the structure, positioning itself in the upper half but still below key resistance levels. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is struggling against a descending trendline (marked in red), indicating a lack of strong bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram is shifting downward, with the signal and MACD lines converging, suggesting an imminent bearish wave. Given these technical indicators, the most probable price action scenario involves continued downward movement, with the lower boundary of the bearish channel serving as the next key target.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore