Forex market today

[Polakandil]

In the midst of the US election NZDUSD jumped from 0.59662 to 0.60145.

The US election has been taking place since November 5 with a tight competition between Kamala Haris and Donald Trump. The NZDUSD pair drew a bulls candle yesterday with a low of 0.59662 and a high of 0.60145 and closed at 0.60054 below the middle band line.

As is known, NZD is one of the commodity currencies that is influenced by their commodity exports, so the US election is crucial for this currency because the change of president may differ in the economic policies implemented.

New Zealand is China's trading partner, if Trump becomes the winner of the election, it could be less supportive of New Zealand's partnership with China because Trump promised to levy 60% import tariffs on China if he wins, which would increase risks to economic growth.

Meanwhile, analysts estimate that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will cut interest rates again by 50 basis points at its last monetary policy meeting this year on November 27.

New Zealand employment data released today showed the actual data was 4.8% smaller than the expected 5.0%, although it was higher than the previous revision of 4.6%. Less actual data good for currency. Meanwhile, the Change in the number of employed people report shows -0.5% smaller than expected -0.4% from the previous revision of 0.2%. actual data is lower than expected which is less good for the currency.

 

[Polakandil]

GBPUSD plunges as Trump wins the US presidential election.

Trump's victory in the 2024 US presidential election has had a strong impact on the USD. It was observed that the USD strengthened in all currency pairs after Trump won over Kamala Harris. From the Associated Press, Trump currently gets 72,083,871 votes (51%) and Harris gets 67,274,910 votes (47.6%).

The USD strengthened, including the British Pound Sterling which yesterday plunged from a high of 1.30471, dropping to 1.28333. The price forms a bearish candle with a long body and a shadow at the bottom of the candle. Price falls from above crossing the middle band line and breaking the lower band line.

Trump's promise of an aggressive expansion of US tariffs on all cross-border trade has caused the USD to strengthen against other currencies. Trump has vowed across-the-board tariffs of 10% to 20% on all imports coming into the United States and tariffs of 60%-100% on Chinese imports.

Apart from the US election results which are in the spotlight, the Fed and BoE policies which are predicted to cut interest rates are also the focus of the GBPUSD pair.

Today the Bank of England (BoE) will make a decision on interest rates, which are expected to cut by 25 basis points from 5.00% to 4.75%.

 

[Polakandil]

USDCAD failed to continue its upside rally and fell ahead of the Fed's decision

USDCAD price yesterday drew a bearish candle with a high of 1.39474 and a low of 1.38414 and closed at 1.38621 on the FXOpen platform.

Previously, the USDCAD pair had a strong rally from a low of 1.38131 to a high of 1.39578 due to the influence of Trump's victory in the US elections held on November 5. However, the rally paused and was turned down yesterday.

Ahead of the Fed's interest rate announcement, USDCAD had started to show its decline, and there was no turbulence after the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points at 4.75% as expected from the previous 5.00%.

The dollar index (DXY) formed a similar pattern, after rising due to Trump's victory yesterday, falling at 104.187 from a high of 105.252, down around 0.75%.

Next, investors will focus on Canadian employment data which will be released today. Employment Change is predicted to fall to 27.9k from the previous 46.7k, while the Unemployment Rate is predicted to rise to 6.6% from the previous 6.5%.

 

[Polakandil]

Silver prices fell amid the cryptocurrency market Bullrun

Trump's victory in the 2024 US election has had a broad impact on financial markets. Apart from having an impact on strengthening the USD, it is also the reason for the Bullrun in the crypto market. The dollar index (DXY) is now at 104.951, up 0.57%. Meanwhile, in the crypto market, many crypto coins experienced significant prices including Bitcoin in 7 days rising more than 15%, Ethereum 28%, Solana, 26%, Doge 78%, ADA 78%, with almost all crypto coins experiencing price increases.

However, amidst the bull run in the crypto market, the price of Silver actually fell. In Friday's trading, Silver drop formed a bearish candle with a high of 32,059 and a low of 31,184 and closed at 31,295.

Silver and gold are often positively correlated, these two precious metals often move side by side even though there are different movement anomalies. After Trump was confirmed to have won the US election, gold and silver prices fell sharply because Trump's policy of increasing tariffs by 50% for Chinese traders weighed on gold and silver, where China is one of the largest importers of gold and silver globally. However, China is also the second largest silver-producing country after Mexico, in 2022 Mexico produced 5,600 MT and China produced 3,400 MT based on statistics based on the US Geological Survey.

With Trump's promise of an inward economic policy, it could revive the trade war with China, which in fact currently dominates popular international trade with cheaper prices, thereby threatening the domestic economy.

Today on the economic calendar investors may only wait for New Zealand inflation data which is not much related to Silver, while banks in Canada and the US are closed today which could affect market liquidity.

 

[Polakandil]

Gold prices plunge to a low of $2610, the Trump effect weighs on gold

Gold prices on Monday fell sharply extending previous declines. Gold price drew a bearish long-body candle with a high of $2685 a low of $2610 and a close at $2618. Gold price crossed the lower band and MA 50 indicates a sharp decline.

The price of gold experienced a significant decline after Trump won the 2024 US presidential contest. Several reasons caused the price of gold to fall, including the strengthening of the USD, increasing performance on the US stock market, increasing performance of Bitcoin, Donald Trump's claim that he wants to end the Middle East conflict, and the possibility of the Fed holding down interest rates due to high fiscal deficit.

Trump's promise to increase trade tariffs is also predicted to increase the price of goods and inflation which could slow the Fed from lowering interest rates.

In the crypto market, the performance of Bitcoin and its friends also weighed on gold. Bitcoin just hit a new record high of $82k, due to expectations that Trump will loosen crypto regulations. Gold experienced a decline because perhaps portfolio managers switched to riskier assets.