Forex market today

[Polakandil]

EURGBP turbulence to low 0.84256, Claimant Count Change lower than forecast

EURGBP fell yesterday drawing a bearish candle with a long shadow on the top candle. Price formed a high of 0.84470 and a low of 0.84226.

There is a gap in today's candlestick change where the open price at 0.84186 is lower than the previous closing price.

Yesterday the Claimant Count Change data which measures people claiming unemployment showed the actual data at 23.7k, much lower than the expected 95.5k and the previous revision of 102.3k.

The actual data which is lower than the forecast is theoretically good for the GBP currency, and it seems that the stable German Final GDP data is not able to encourage the strengthening of the Euro.

Today, there is news related to the GBP currency that is expected to trigger volatility. The main focus is on GDP with a forecast of 0.2% higher than the previous data revision of 0.0%.

Apart from GDP news, there are also Construction output, goods trade balance, index of services, industrial production and manufacturing production.

 

[Polakandil]

Silver prices are up but still within a range

In yesterday's trading session, Silver rose drawing a bull candle with a long body with on top and bottom candle wicks. This precious metal is often positively correlated with gold, but sometimes the two have anomalous differences. Some traders take advantage of this correlation to hedge.

In this week's trading, the Silver price tried to rise after two weeks of a downward trend, three Silver lines drew bulls candles below the middle band line but were still in the price range of 27,600 - 29,100. The countries that import the most silver are the US, Canada, Hong Kong, the UK, and Türkiye. Paying attention to these countries' economic development could be useful.

Yesterday the US core CPI data was higher than expected, the actual data was 0.3% from the expected 0.2%, while the CPI month-to-month and CPI year to year were relatively the same as expected, cooler than the previous year.

Silver price fluctuations were high in response to the CPI release, rising from a low of 28,059 to a high of 28,714. The market seems to be still waiting for the Fed to cut interest rates at the September 17-18 meeting. Whether the Fed cuts interest rates by 25 bps or 50 bps is debated. According to the Fedwatch tool from the CME Group, the forecast for the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 bps falls to 15% while the forecast for a 25 bps cut rises to 85%.

Today investors will focus on US PPI data and unemployment claims. Core PPI is expected to be 0.2% from the previous revision of 0.0% and unemployment claims are expected to be the same 227k as the previous revision.

 

[Polakandil]

Gold set a new record high after releasing PPI data and jobless claims.

After moving in a trading range for several weeks, gold prices finally broke out, and a new all-time high printed yesterday. Price draws a bullish long body candlestick with almost no shadow. Price drew a high of $2559 with a low of $2510.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in August. Prices for final demand services increased 0.4 percent, and the index for final demand goods was unchanged. Prices for final demand advanced 1.7 percent for the 12 months ending in August.

Meanwhile, Unemployment Claims data showed an increase of 230k, higher than the expected 227k, with a revision of the previous data of 228k. This lower value does not support strengthening the US Dollar because the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health due to consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions.

On the other hand, China's second quarter gold reserves according to tradingeconomics were 2.28K tons, the same number as the first quarter of 2024 but higher than the fourth quarter of 2023. In the Chinese market, gold is showing a rise.

Meanwhile, according to the FedWatch tool from the CME Group, the forecast for the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 bps is down by 72% and a cut by 50 bps is up by 28%. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates on September 18.

 

[Polakandil]

CHFJPY extended its decline at the end of the week by drawing a long body bearish candlestick with almost no shadow. Price drew a high of 166.655 and a low of 165.565 at the FXOpen chart. This extends the bearish sentiment of the CHFJPY pair since September 3 with its up and down wave fluctuations.

CHFJPY price broke the lower band on September 6, an indication that market volatility is starting to increase. In 52-week trading, the CHFJPY price range is in the range of 159.98 - 180.06. This pair is one of the popular cross pairs and may be quite interesting considering its high volatility. However, as a cross-currency pair traders may consider the spread fee.

The current SNB interest rate is 1.50% which was released in June from the previous 1.50%, the SNB's highest interest rate is 1.75% since 2023 and has been cut twice from 1.50% to 1.25%. This month traders will wait for the SNB and BOJ interest rate policies which may affect currency values.

The BOJ interest rate is now at 0.25%, the highest since the negative interest rate policy ended. The BOJ exited negative interest rates in April 2024 with an interest rate of 0.10% which then rose to 0.25% in July, and this month traders will wait for the BOJ's policy on interest rates.

Economic news that may be of concern to CHFJPY pair traders today is Swiss PPI data which is expected to rise 0.1% from the previous data revision of 0.1%. Meanwhile, the Bank Holiday in Japan is the Respect for the Aged Day. This may affect JPY currency transactions. Apart from banks in Japan, bank holidays are also held in China to commemorate the Mid-Autumn festival.

 

[Polakandil]

EUR/USD rose across the middle band on hopes of the Fed lowering interest rates

EUR/USD price on Monday continued its rise after ending consolidation near the middle band line. Bank holidays in Japan and China don't seem to have much influence on the EURUSD market and the volatility market remains high.

EUR/USD price rose forming a long-body bullish candlestick with almost no shadow reflecting significant gains with little selling pressure.

The Fed, according to the economic calendar schedule Forexfactory, will announce its interest rate policy on September 19 which is expected to fall to 5.25% from the previous 5.50%.

Meanwhile, according to the Fedwatch tool from the CME group, the potential for the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 bps has increased by 67%, while the potential for a 25 bps cut has fallen to 33%. This change was caused by US economic data last week which strengthened hopes that the Fed might surprise the market with a 50 bps cut.

Today the important economic data that investors are focusing on is US retail sales. Core retail sales are expected to fall 0.2% from the previous revised 0.4%, and retail sales are expected to be -0.2% from the previous 1.0% to be released by the US Census.

 

[Polakandil]

US retail sales data brings gold pullback

After reaching a record high, gold was reluctant to continue its rise ahead of the Fed's meeting to cut interest rates this week. Gold prices yesterday fell to a low of $2560 from a high of $2586 after the US released retail sales data.

US Retail Sales rose 0.1% in August monthly, compared to a revised 1.1% increase recorded in July. However, this was above consensus expectations of a fall of 0.2%, according to data from the US Census Bureau.

US Retail Sales excluding Autos, meanwhile, rose 0.1% after a 0.4% rise in July. This was below the forecast of a rise of 0.2%.

The retail sales data does not seem to support the strengthening of the dollar, but the impact on gold is different.

Gold prices briefly soared to a new all-time high of $2,589 as bets on the Fed cutting double interest rates increased. According to the FedWatch tool from the CME group, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points rose by 67% while the probability of a cut by 25 basis points fell by 37%.

In theory, the Fed's interest rate cut will provide support for gold as a non-yielding asset. Many analysts provide bullish support for gold, one of which is Michaël van de Poppe, Founder of MN Consultancy, who predicts a 10 year bullish commodity market including gold.

Today there are no high impact news releases in the economic calendar, but investors will probably consider US Building Permits data which measures permits for building new residential buildings which is estimated at 1.41M from the previous revised data of 1.40M.

 

[Polakandil]

Markets are volatile the Fed cuts interest rates in half including NZDUSD

The Fed finally cut interest rates by 0.50%, higher than the forecast of 0.25%, so the Fed interest rate is now 5.00%.

The market looks volatile in response to the Fed's interest rate data, all currency pairs with the USD are experiencing turbulence. Gold briefly soared to $2600 but fell again to around $2547. Other currency pairs such as EUR/USD, and GBP/USD experienced similar conditions, rising then falling.

The NZD/USD pair also experienced turbulence after the Fed cut interest rates, this pair drew a bullish candlestick with a long wick on the top candle indicating that a strong rally came under high selling pressure. Yesterday's price formed a low of 0.61809 and a high of 0.62769 closing at 0.62085. The price soars up and then back to the starting point near the middle band line.

Looking for fresh insights into the health of New Zealand's economy, investors will focus on second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which will be published later today. Zealand's GDP is predicted to fall -0.4% from the previous 0.2%, if the actual data is higher than the forecast it is expected to be good for NZD.

However, investors are also paying attention to US data, especially the FOMC economic projections and Unemployment Claims, which are predicted to be 230k, the same as the previous revision of 230k.