EURUSD Daily Analysis

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 18.06.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD news analysis today is influenced by various macroeconomic factors and central bank policies. Currently, the European Central Bank (ECB) is considering interest rate adjustments, with potential cuts on the horizon due to concerns about economic growth. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve (FOMC) is tackling inflation, with recent retail sales data indicating a potential increase. These diverging paths are crucial in understanding the EUR/USD dynamics. The ECB's dovish stance may weaken the euro, while positive U.S. economic data could strengthen the dollar.


Price Action:
The EUR/USD H4 chart indicates that the price is recovering from a recent downtrend. The price action shows higher highs and higher lows, suggesting a bullish reversal. The EURUSD technical analysis today shows the pair is currently trading within an ascending channel, with immediate resistance around 1.0745 and support at 1.0700. The recent bullish candles indicate strong buying pressure, but traders should be cautious of potential resistance levels.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating a bearish sentiment. However, the recent upward movement suggests a potential challenge to the cloud's lower boundary.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is below the signal line, and the histogram shows negative values, indicating bearish momentum. However, the convergence of the lines suggests a possible bullish crossover.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is around 48.18, which is neutral. It indicates that the market is not yet overbought or oversold, providing room for further price movement.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: Immediate support is at 1.0700, which aligns with the lower boundary of the ascending channel. Additional support is found at 1.0680.

Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is at 1.0745, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel. Further resistance can be seen at 1.0785, near the Ichimoku Cloud.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/USD forecast live is showing signs of a potential bullish reversal on the H4 timeframe, supported by higher lows and higher highs within an ascending channel. Traders should monitor the key resistance levels at 1.0745 and 1.0785 for a potential breakout. The RSI and MACD indicators suggest that the market is in a neutral to slightly bearish phase, but the convergence in MACD hints at possible bullish momentum. Fundamental factors, such as ECB and FOMC policies, will continue to play a significant role in the pair's movement. Traders should implement risk management strategies, considering the volatile nature of the forex market.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
18.06.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 27.06.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD news analysis today is influenced by significant economic indicators and news releases. For the Euro, the M3 Money Supply and private loans data provide insights into economic health and lending trends within the Eurozone. For the US Dollar, today's high-impact news includes the Final GDP q/q, expected at 1.4%, and Unemployment Claims forecasted at 236K. Stronger-than-expected GDP growth and lower unemployment claims are likely to support the USD, while weaker data could benefit the Euro. Additionally, medium-impact releases such as Core Durable Goods Orders and Durable Goods Orders will further influence the EUR/USD market sentiment and direction.

Price Action:
The EUR/USD H4 chart exhibits a bearish trend for the pair, with the price making lower highs and lower lows. The pair has recently been trading below the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating sustained bearish momentum. The "Fiber's" price action shows a potential descending triangle pattern, which could signal further downside if support levels are breached.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting a bearish trend. The future cloud is also red, indicating potential continued bearish sentiment.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 35.96, indicating that the pair is approaching oversold territory. This could suggest a potential for a short-term reversal if the RSI dips further but fails to break the oversold threshold.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: The immediate support level is at 1.06650, followed by a secondary support at 1.06550.
Resistance Levels: The nearest resistance is at 1.07139, with further resistance at 1.07640 and 1.08000.


Conclusion and Consideration: The EUR/USD forecast live shows strong bearish momentum, as evidenced by the position below the Ichimoku Cloud and the descending RSI. Traders should monitor the key support level at 1.06650; a breach below this level could signal further downside. Conversely, if the RSI indicates oversold conditions, a short-term bounce to the resistance levels could occur. Fundamental factors, including today's economic releases, will play a crucial role in determining the pair's direction. Proper risk management, including setting stop losses, is essential due to potential market volatility around high-impact news.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
27.06.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 02.07.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD forex pair, representing the exchange rate between the Euro and the US Dollar, is influenced by significant economic data from both the Eurozone and the United States. Recent PMI data from the Eurozone showed improvements, with the Italian Manufacturing PMI at 45.7, French Final Manufacturing PMI at 45.4, and the overall Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI at 45.8, all surpassing their forecasts. Meanwhile, US economic data revealed mixed results, with the Final Manufacturing PMI at 51.6, ISM Manufacturing PMI at 48.5 below expectations, and ISM Manufacturing Prices and Construction Spending showing weaker figures. These data points suggest a potential advantage for the Euro in the near term.


Price Action:
Analyzing the EUR/USD H4 chart, the pair has broken above its bearish trend line, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment. The price reacted to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous bearish wave and appears poised to continue its bullish run. The breakout above the trend line and the Fibonacci level indicates strong bullish momentum.


Key Technical Indicators:
Fibonacci Retracement Levels: The price reacted at the 23.6% Fibonacci level and is expected to continue upwards. The next levels to watch are the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels, which could act as resistance.
MACD: The MACD line is crossing above the signal line, suggesting bullish momentum. This crossover is a typical bullish signal, indicating potential upward movement in the near term.

Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The immediate support level is around 1.0700. A break below this level could lead the pair to test the next support at 1.0650.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is at 1.0780, followed by a stronger resistance level at 1.0840.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/USD pair on the H4 chart displays a bullish outlook, supported by the breakout above the bearish trend line and the bullish signals from the MACD indicator. The reaction at the 23.6% Fibonacci level suggests potential for further upward movement. Traders should monitor these levels closely and watch for any fundamental news that might impact the pair, especially economic data releases from the Eurozone and the United States.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it is essential to stay updated with the latest information.


FXGlory
02.07.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.08.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:

The EUR/USD news analysis today is influenced by a variety of fundamental factors, including macroeconomic data, central bank policies, and geopolitical events. For the Euro, upcoming reports such as the German Trade Balance and Sentix Investor Confidence are low-impact but can provide insights into economic health. A higher-than-expected trade balance could be positive for the Euro, suggesting robust export activity. Similarly, a Sentix Investor Confidence reading above expectations could indicate optimism about the Eurozone economy. For the USD, the Consumer Credit m/m data is expected to be a low-impact release, but higher consumer credit could signal confidence in financial stability and spending power, potentially supporting the USD.


Price Action:

The EUR/USD H4 chart shows a visible bullish trend for the pair with the price moving within an ascending channel. The Fiber's price action shows higher highs and higher lows, indicating bullish momentum. The pair has tested and pulled back from the upper boundary of the channel, suggesting a potential consolidation or retracement before continuing its upward movement.


Key Technical Indicators:

Ichimoku Cloud:

The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating a bullish trend. The Tenkan-sen (red line) and Kijun-sen (blue line) are both pointing upwards, which supports the bullish outlook. The Chikou Span (lagging line) is above the price, further confirming the bullish trend.

RSI (Relative Strength Index):

The RSI is currently at 67.63, close to the overbought territory (70). This suggests that while there is strong bullish momentum, the pair may be nearing an overbought condition, which could lead to a short-term correction.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):

MACD line above the signal line, indicating sustained bullish momentum. The upward trajectory of the MACD lines supports the potential for further gains.


Support and Resistance:

Support Levels:

Immediate support is at the 1.08015 level, which aligns with the lower boundary of the ascending channel and the Kijun-sen.

Resistance Levels:

The nearest resistance is at 1.08375, marked by the recent high. A break above this level could see the price testing higher resistance around 1.08640.


Conclusion and Consideration:

The EUR/USD pair on the H4 chart is in a clear uptrend, supported by the Ichimoku Cloud, RSI, and MACD indicators. The bullish momentum of the pair appears strong, but the RSI suggests the pair may be approaching an overbought condition, which could lead to a short-term pullback. Traders should watch for a break above the 1.08375 resistance level for confirmation of continued bullish movement. Key economic data releases for both EUR and USD should be monitored as they can influence market sentiment and price action. Proper risk management strategies, such as setting stop losses near support levels, are essential in managing potential market volatility.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
07.08.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EUR/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.10.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:

The EUR/USD forex pair analysis is currently influenced by several economic indicators and geopolitical factors. For the Euro, key influences include the latest European Central Bank (ECB) meeting minutes and upcoming economic data releases such as the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index and Eurozone Industrial Production figures. These indicators reflect the economic health of the Eurozone, which in turn affects the Euro's strength. On the US side, recent speeches from Federal Reserve officials and USD-related economic data, including inflation rates and jobless claims, play a significant role. The Fed's stance on monetary policy continues to be a critical driver for the USD, impacting the EUR/USD forecast today.



Price Action:

The EUR/USD H4 chart is displaying a bullish trend characterized by the price recently breaking above the Ichimoku cloud. This bullish breakout signifies the potential for further upward movement. After a correction phase, EURUSD appears to be resuming its ascending trend. The price action predictions suggest that if the current bullish momentum persists, the pair could test and possibly break through the identified resistance levels.



Key Technical Indicators:

Ichimoku Cloud:

The price is trading above the Kumo (cloud), indicating a bullish trend and the Senkou Span A is above Senkou Span B, further supporting the bullish sentiment.

RSI (Relative Strength Index):

The RSI is currently at 55.80, which is in bullish territory but not overbought. This suggests there is room for the price to move higher.

Stochastic Oscillator:

The Stochastic (5, 3, 3) is at 39.32, indicating that the pair might have potential for further upward movement before reaching overbought conditions.


Support and Resistance:

Support Levels:

The nearest support level is at 1.07970, followed by more substantial support at 1.07350.

Resistance Levels:

The immediate resistance level is at 1.08510, with a significant resistance level at 1.07350, which aligns with the upper boundary of the ascending channel.


Conclusion and Consideration:

The EUR/USD technical analysis today shows a strong bullish trend on the H4 chart, supported by the Ichimoku cloud analysis and the current position of the RSI. The Stochastic indicator suggests potential for continued upward movement, provided the pair finds support at current levels. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels, particularly the 1.08510 and 1.08560 resistance levels, for potential breakout opportunities. Given the upcoming economic data releases and statements from Federal Reserve officials, traders should remain cautious and employ proper risk management strategies.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
07.10.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.15.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:

The EUR/USD news analysis today is influenced by several fundamental factors. Recent data from Eurostat indicates changes in the industrial production of the Eurozone, with the latest figures showing a positive trend, suggesting economic recovery. The upcoming Eurogroup meeting could further impact the EUR/USD forecast today as finance ministers discuss economic policies. On the USD side, key events include the Empire State Manufacturing Index, which provides insights into business conditions in New York state, and speeches by Federal Reserve officials, including Jerome Powell and Mary Daly, which could provide clues about future monetary policy.


Price Action:

The EUR/USD H4 chart shows a consistent uptrend within a rising channel. The price has been making higher highs and higher lows, indicating the Fiber's strong bullish trend. Currently, the pair's price action shows that it is testing the upper boundary of the channel, suggesting potential resistance. A correction may occur before the pair continues its upward trajectory.


Key Technical Indicators:

Ichimoku Cloud:

The price is trading above the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating the bullish trend of the pair. The cloud itself is also rising, further supporting the bullish outlook. The conversion line (blue) is above the baseline (red), which is another bullish signal.

RSI (Relative Strength Index):

The RSI is at 63.47, which is in the bullish territory but not yet overbought. This suggests that there is still room for the price to move higher before hitting overbought conditions.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):

The MACD line is above the signal line, and the histogram shows positive values, indicating bullish momentum. However, the histogram bars are decreasing, which may suggest a weakening in the bullish momentum.


Support and Resistance:

Support Levels:

The immediate support is at 1.0843, followed by a stronger support level at 1.0750.

Resistance Levels:

The immediate resistance is at 1.0987. If the price breaks above this level, the next target would be 1.1050.


Conclusion and Consideration:

The EUR/USD technical analysis today shows the Fiber's strong bullish signs on the H4 chart, supported by key technical indicators like the Ichimoku Cloud, RSI, and MACD. While the RSI indicates there is still room for growth, traders should watch for potential resistance at the current levels. The pair's Fundamental factors such as economic data releases from the Eurozone and the US, as well as comments from Federal Reserve officials, could impact the pair's movement. Traders should consider these events and use proper risk management techniques, including stop losses, given the potential for volatility.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
07.15.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 18.07.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:

The EUR/USD forecast today is heavily influenced by the economic releases from Europe and the U.S. For the Euro, factors like the results from bond auctions by the General Secretariat of the Treasury and statements from the ECB provide key insights into fiscal health and monetary policy decisions. Upcoming ECB interest rate decisions and statements could affect the Euro's strength. For the U.S., key data like unemployment claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index serve as indicators of economic health, influencing the USD. Increased jobless claims could weaken the USD, whereas a positive manufacturing report could strengthen it.


Price Action:

The EUR/USD H4 chart timeframe shows a narrowing ascending channel pattern, indicating a steady uptrend but with resistance nearing the upper channel line. The EUR/USD pair also known as the Fiber, still has its price above the Ichimoku cloud, suggesting the pair's bullish market environment. However, the Fiber's price action also shows resistance levels are being tested, indicating potential points where the price momentum might pause or reverse.


Key Technical Indicators:

Ichimoku Cloud:

The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud, supporting the current bullish trend. However, the narrowing of the cloud could suggest upcoming volatility or a potential trend shift.

RSI (Relative Strength Index):

The RSI is at 68.05, nearing the overbought territory, which could suggest a potential pullback or stabilization in price movements.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):

The MACD shows a slight divergence above its signal line, indicating bullish momentum but with caution as the histogram bars are small, suggesting a lack of strong momentum.


Support and Resistance:

Support Levels:

The nearest support is observed at the lower boundary of the ascending channel and the Ichimoku Cloud, around 1.0884.

Resistance Levels:

Immediate resistance is seen at the upper channel line and the recent high at 1.0938. A break above this could lead to further bullish movement towards the 1.1000 level.


Conclusion and Consideration:

The EUR/USD technical analysis today is displaying bullish signs on the H4 chart, supported by technical indicators like MACD and position above the Ichimoku Cloud. Traders should keep an eye on the resistance at 1.0938, as a breakout could confirm continued bullish trends. The EUR/USD fundamental analysis based on the recent events in the Eurozone and the U.S. could heavily influence the direction, so staying updated with these can be crucial for timely decision-making.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
18.07.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 25.07.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD forecast today is currently influenced by a series of upcoming economic events and data releases. For the USD, key events include speeches from FOMC members Bowman and Logan, as well as President Biden's announcement. High-impact data such as the Advance GDP q/q, Unemployment Claims, and Durable Goods Orders will also play crucial roles. These events are likely to provide significant volatility in the market. In the Eurozone, the Ifo Business Climate Index and ECB-related announcements will shape market sentiment. Strong US economic data and hawkish tones from FOMC members may strengthen the USD, potentially pushing the EUR/USD pair, also known as the Fiber, lower.


Price Action:
The EUR/USD H4 chart has recently broken below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a shift to a bearish trend. The pair is experiencing a downward movement, forming lower highs and lower lows, typical of a bearish trend. The pair's price action suggests continued downward pressure, with the price finding resistance at the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The price breaking below the Ichimoku cloud is a bearish signal. The future cloud is bearish as well, with Span A below Span B, indicating potential continued downward momentum.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is around 35.39, which is close to the oversold territory. This indicates that while the bearish momentum is strong, there may be limited room for further immediate decline before a potential correction.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD indicator shows a negative histogram with the MACD line below the signal line, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. This suggests that downward momentum is currently prevailing.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: Immediate support is found at 1.08345, with stronger support at 1.08000.
Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is at 1.08574, followed by 1.08870 and 1.09039. A break above these levels would be required to negate the current bearish trend.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/USD technical analysis on the H4 chart is exhibiting bearish tendencies, confirmed by the price breaking below the Ichimoku cloud and negative signals from the MACD. The RSI suggests the pair is nearing oversold conditions, which could lead to a short-term corrective bounce. However, the overall sentiment remains bearish unless significant resistance levels are breached. As for the Fiber's fundamental analysis today, traders should closely monitor the upcoming economic data releases and FOMC speeches for further direction. Proper risk management, such as setting stop losses, is crucial in this volatile environment.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
25.07.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 30.07.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD news analysis today is influenced by various fundamental factors such as macroeconomic indicators, central bank policies, and geopolitical events. For the Euro, recent data releases from INSEE indicate changes in consumer spending and GDP, which are vital for understanding the economic health of the Eurozone. Positive readings typically strengthen the Euro. On the US side, upcoming data on house prices and consumer confidence are crucial. The US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions also play a significant role, with higher interest rates potentially boosting the USD, consequently affecting the pair also known as the Fiber.


Price Action:
The EUR/USD H4 chart shows the pair's clear bearish trend, with the price moving below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a strong downtrend. The price has recently tested and broken through significant support levels, and there is a descending channel evident, further confirming the bearish sentiment. The Fiber's price action suggests continued downward pressure unless a significant reversal signal appears.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The price is trading below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating bearish momentum. The future cloud is bearish, suggesting that the downtrend might continue. The Tenkan-Sen is below the Kijun-Sen, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is at 36.35, which is in the bearish zone but not yet oversold. This indicates that there might still be room for further downside before a potential reversal or correction.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic is at 20.22/14.21, indicating oversold conditions. This could suggest that a short-term bounce or correction might be on the horizon if the market finds some support.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: The immediate support level is at 1.08148, with further support at 1.07600, the lower bound of the descending channel.
Resistance Levels: The nearest resistance is at 1.08331, followed by 1.08555 and 1.08842, which are the upper bounds of the recent price consolidation and descending channel.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/USD technical analysis today on the H4 chart shows a strong bearish trend reinforced by key technical indicators. The price is trading below the Ichimoku cloud, the RSI indicates bearish momentum, and the Stochastic suggests oversold conditions. Traders should monitor the support at 1.08148 closely; a break below this level could signal further downside. However, oversold conditions might lead to a short-term corrective bounce. As for the pair's fundamental analysis, data releases from both the Eurozone and the US could provide additional volatility and direction. Risk management is crucial in such a volatile environment, and setting appropriate stop-loss levels is advised.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
30.07.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 05.08.2024

Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD news analysis is set to be influenced by several low-impact news releases today, including the Spanish, Italian, French, German, and overall Eurozone Services PMI. These PMI releases are crucial as they provide insight into the economic health and business conditions in the services sector. A reading above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, while below signifies contraction. Moreover, the Sentix Investor Confidence and Producer Price Index (PPI) m/m data will further contribute to market sentiment. For the US Dollar (USD), the key events to watch are the medium-impact Final Services PMI with a forecast of 56.0, and the high-impact ISM Services PMI expected to be at 51.4. Both these indicators are critical as they reflect the economic health and business conditions in the US non-manufacturing sector.


Price Action:
The EURUSD pair on the H4 timeframe recently exhibited a significant bullish momentum. The price action indicates a breakout from the previous downtrend, marked by a steep rise in the past few sessions. The sharp increase in price has broken through several resistance levels, indicating strong bullish sentiment.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse) indicator has placed its last spots below the candles, suggesting a bullish trend. The sharp increase in price aligns with the SAR's indication, confirming a strong upward momentum.
Alligator: The Alligator indicator, consisting of the Jaw (blue line), Teeth (red line), and Lips (green line), shows a widening of the lines. This indicates a trending market. The Lips (green) have crossed above the Teeth (red) and Jaw (blue), which supports the bullish trend and suggests that the market is waking up to a new upward direction.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line has crossed above the signal line with the histogram showing increasing bullish momentum. This crossover and the rising histogram bars indicate a strengthening bullish trend, reinforcing the recent upward price action.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support Levels: The immediate support level is at 1.0840 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level), followed by 1.0784 (0.0% Fibonacci retracement level).
Resistance Levels: The key resistance level to watch is at 1.0917, followed by 1.0960 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level).


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EURUSD H4 chart exhibits a robust bullish trend driven by strong upward price action and supported by key technical indicators such as Parabolic SAR, Alligator, and MACD. The market's recent breakout from the downtrend signals potential for further gains. However, traders should consider the upcoming economic news releases for both EUR and USD, which could introduce volatility and impact the price direction.


Disclaimer: The EURUSD provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it is essential to stay updated with the latest information.


FXGlory
05.08.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 12.08.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:

The EUR/USD news analysis today is influenced by a combination of Eurozone and U.S. economic factors. Recently, the U.S. Treasury released its Monthly Treasury Statement, indicating a difference in the federal government's income and spending, which could potentially impact the U.S. Dollar depending on whether the deficit is larger or smaller than expected. Additionally, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's inflation expectations report could sway investor sentiment if the forecast differs significantly from the actual data. On the Euro side, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) from Destatis, which indicates changes in the price of goods sold by wholesalers, will be a crucial indicator to monitor as it may hint at upcoming consumer inflation trends in the Eurozone. These factors combined suggest that market participants should remain cautious of any news releases that might have an effect on today's EUR/USD forecast.


Price Action:

The EUR/USD H4 chart demonstrates a bearish trend for the pair also known as the 'Fiber', with the price nearing the Ichimoku Cloud, which it seems poised to break downward. The Fiber's price action shows consolidation within a descending triangle pattern, indicating a potential continuation of the downtrend if the lower boundary of the pattern is breached. The recent candlesticks suggest indecision, but with a bearish bias, as indicated by the rejection of higher prices and the subsequent movement toward the triangle's lower trendline.


Key Technical Indicators:

Ichimoku Cloud:

The price is currently approaching the lower edge of the Ichimoku Cloud. A break below the cloud would signify a bearish continuation, potentially leading to further downside. The cloud ahead is thin, suggesting weak future support levels.

RSI (Relative Strength Index):

The RSI is at 51.27, hovering around the midline, which indicates a neutral stance. However, given the recent price action and the prevailing bearish trend, the RSI might dip further, signaling increasing selling pressure.

Stochastic Oscillator:

The MACD histogram shows decreasing momentum, with the MACD line close to crossing below the signal line. This potential bearish crossover could confirm a continuation of the downward trend.


Support and Resistance:

Support Levels:

The nearest resistance levels are at 1.09364 and 1.09195, which correspond to previous highs and could act as barriers to any upward movement.

Resistance Levels:

The immediate support is at 1.08962. If the price breaks below this level, it may find further support around 1.08350, which aligns with the lower boundary of the descending triangle.


Conclusion and Consideration:

The EUR/USD technical analysis on the pair's H4 chart suggests a bearish outlook, particularly with the price nearing a critical support level within a descending triangle. The technical indicators align with this view, signaling potential downside risks if the support at 1.08962 is breached. Traders should keep an eye on the upcoming economic data releases as they could have significant effects on the Fiber's fundamental analysis. Given the current technical setup, short positions might be favored, but caution is advised, especially around key support and resistance levels.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
12.08.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EUR/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.03.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD currency pair is experiencing notable fluctuations influenced by a mix of European economic data and US market dynamics. Today's EURUSD calendar includes significant releases like the Real Retail Sales from Germany and the French General Budget Outcome, both pivotal in shaping the Euro's trajectory. Concurrently, the speech by Deutsche Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel is highly anticipated, with potential implications on the Euro's strength depending on the tone and content regarding future monetary policy. Across the Atlantic, the US market awaits the PMI data, which is a critical economic health indicator. Such data can directly impact the USD's strength against a backdrop of global economic uncertainties.


Price Action:
The EUR/USD Price Action has shown a consistent bearish trend on the H4 chart, marked by a descending channel pattern. Recent sessions have recorded a narrow oscillation between the middle and lower Bollinger Bands, indicative of bearish momentum with intermittent stability. The last three candles, specifically bearish, reinforce the downtrend, hinting at potential continued bearish pressure if the upper resistance of the channel holds.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The EUR/USD's price movement within the Bollinger Bands displays a bearish trend, as it hovers between the middle and lower bands. The narrowing of the bands slightly suggests a decrease in market volatility and a potential consolidation phase could be nearing.
Parabolic SAR: Indicative dots positioned above the candles signal continued bearish dominance, aligning with the overall downtrend observed in the price channel.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): With an RSI value at 34.28, the market is nearing oversold territory, suggesting a potential slowdown in the bearish momentum or a forthcoming bullish correction.
%R (Williams Percent Range): The %R indicator at -87.38 further corroborates the strong bearish momentum, as it lies close to the extreme end of its range, signaling that the market might be oversold.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The nearest significant support level is observed around 1.09470, which aligns with historical lows and the lower Bollinger Band.
Resistance: Resistance can be found at approximately 1.11095, coinciding with the channel's upper boundary and the middle Bollinger Band.


Conclusion and Considerations:
The EUR/USD pair is currently in a bearish phase, indicated by both price action and key technical indicators within the H4 timeframe. Investors should remain cautious, as the upcoming economic announcements from both Europe and the United States could inject significant volatility and potentially alter the currency pair's direction. Traders are advised to watch for any breakout above the channel resistance or a bounce from support levels as key signals for short-term trading opportunities.


Disclaimer: The EUR/USD H4 analysis is provided as a general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. Financial trading involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Investors should conduct their own research or consult a professional advisor before making any investment decisions. Changes in market conditions can occur rapidly, requiring constant review and adaptation of strategies.


FXGlory
09.03.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.09.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD currency pair is currently influenced by key economic releases from both the Eurozone and the United States. From the USD side, the upcoming Wholesale Inventories report from the Census Bureau will be closely watched. A figure lower than forecast could signal inventory depletion and boost future purchasing power, benefiting the USD. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's Consumer Credit data, which reflects consumer spending confidence, could strengthen the USD if it shows an increase, as rising credit often correlates with consumer optimism. For the Euro, the Sentix Investor Confidence index will be critical. A higher-than-expected figure would indicate optimism in the Eurozone, potentially supporting the EUR. However, a negative result could reflect investor pessimism, putting further pressure on the Euro. These data releases will influence market sentiment and are likely to drive volatility in the EUR/USD pair.


Price Action:
The price action on the EUR/USD H4 chart shows a bearish trend, with the pair experiencing significant downward movement since August 23, 2024. After reaching a low around 1.1032, the pair retraced upwards, but the recovery was halted near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1184. The most recent candles indicate renewed bearish momentum as the pair failed to hold above the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1108, suggesting that sellers are still in control. The price is currently consolidating around the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1089. A further decline could push the pair back toward the 23.6% retracement level at 1.1067, and a break below this would likely lead to a retest of the recent low at 1.1032. However, if buyers regain control, a push above 1.1108 could lead to a test of the 61.8% level at 1.1184.


Key Technical Indicators:
Triple Exponential Moving Average (TEMA): The TEMA is indicating a bearish bias, with the price trading below the short-term moving average, signaling continued downward momentum. As the price hovers near key support levels, traders should watch for a potential bounce or further downside acceleration if the price remains below the TEMA.
Volumes: Volume analysis reveals that sellers have dominated recent sessions, as higher volumes were recorded during the downtrend. However, volumes have started to decrease slightly as the price approaches key support levels, suggesting that bearish momentum may be weakening. A resurgence in volume during the next price movement will be crucial in confirming the direction of the next trend.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is currently below the zero line, confirming the bearish trend. Although the histogram bars are shrinking, indicating waning downward momentum, the MACD line remains below the signal line, suggesting that the market sentiment is still bearish. A bullish crossover of the MACD and signal lines would be needed to signal a potential trend reversal.
%R Indicator (Williams Percent Range): The %R indicator is in the oversold zone, currently around -80.85. This suggests that the market could be nearing a point of exhaustion in the current bearish move. While oversold conditions often precede a reversal, strong trends can keep the %R indicator in this zone for some time, so traders should look for confirmation before taking long positions.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support Levels: The first key support level is at 1.1067, aligned with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A break below this level could open the door to further downside, targeting the recent low at 1.1032, which has provided significant support in recent sessions. If this level is breached, the next psychological support is at 1.1015, where buyers may attempt to step in to prevent further declines.
Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is at 1.1108, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, where the price has previously stalled. A breakout above this level would suggest a possible shift in sentiment, targeting the next resistance at 1.1130. The most significant resistance is at 1.1184, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, where sellers are likely to re-enter the market. A close above this level could signal a potential bullish reversal.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/USD pair remains in a bearish trend on the H4 chart, supported by key technical indicators such as the TEMA and MACD, despite signals of weakening momentum. The upcoming economic releases, particularly from the U.S. Census Bureau and Federal Reserve, as well as the Sentix Investor Confidence report from the Eurozone, will play a pivotal role in determining the next significant price movement. Traders should watch closely for price action around key support and resistance levels, as a break below 1.1067 would indicate continued bearish pressure, while a move above 1.1108 could signal the start of a bullish recovery.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Traders should conduct their own analysis and consider their risk tolerance before making any trading decisions. The forex market can be highly volatile, and unexpected news or events may lead to rapid changes in market conditions.


FXGlory
09.09.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EUR/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.13.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, the EUR/USD forex pair is influenced by key economic data releases from both the Eurozone and the US. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from INSEE and the industrial production data from Eurostat are likely to set the tone for the Euro, reflecting the inflation rate and manufacturing output within the region. On the US side, the Import Price Index and consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan are critical, as they provide early insights into inflation and consumer confidence. A higher-than-expected CPI or industrial output reading in the Eurozone could boost the Euro, while strong import price data or positive consumer sentiment in the US would likely strengthen the USD, adding pressure on the EURUSD pair.


Price Action:
In the H4 timeframe, the EUR/USD pair shows a clear bullish trend after rebounding from the 1.1010 level. The price moved from the lower half of the Bollinger Bands, crossing the middle band, and now has reached the upper band, indicating strong bullish momentum. The recent five candles show steady upward movement, as the pair broke through the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels and is now testing the 50.0% level. If the pair manages to breach this key resistance level, it could move towards the 61.8% or even the 100% Fibonacci retracement level, though a failure to break through 50.0% may signal a potential retracement to the previous support levels.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price has moved from the lower half of the Bollinger Bands and is now touching the upper band, which reflects strong bullish momentum. The widening of the bands suggests increasing volatility in the market.
Parabolic SAR: The last five Parabolic SAR dots are placed below the candles, signaling a continuation of the uptrend. As long as the dots stay below the price action, bullish momentum is expected to persist.
MACD: The MACD line is approaching the signal line from below, suggesting a potential bullish crossover. This would confirm the upward momentum if the crossover occurs, signaling continued buying pressure.
Williams %R: Currently, the %R is around -0.39, indicating the price is in bullish territory but not yet overbought. There is still room for upward movement before hitting extreme levels.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: 1.1055 (23.6% Fibonacci), 1.1030, and 1.1010 (recent low).
Resistance Levels: 1.1087 (50.0% Fibonacci), 1.1115 (61.8% Fibonacci), and 1.1150 (100.0% Fibonacci).


Conclusion and Consideration: The EUR USD pair is currently in an uptrend on the H4 chart, with strong bullish signals from both technical indicators and price action. If the pair can break above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level, it is likely to continue higher towards the 61.8% level. However, if resistance at the 50.0% level holds, a pullback toward the 38.2% level is possible, where previous support levels may provide a buying opportunity. Traders should keep an eye on today’s fundamental data releases, as they could lead to increased volatility and confirm the direction of the pair.


Disclaimer: The provided EUR-USD analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it is essential to conduct thorough research before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
09.13.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.26.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD fundamental outlook today is influenced by both the Eurozone's economic factors and the strength of the US dollar. Recently, several key developments in both economies have affected this pair that’s also known as the “Fiber”. The US dollar has seen strength due to hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials like Governor Adriana Kugler, signaling potential rate hikes. Additionally, economic data from the US, including durable goods orders and jobless claims, have contributed to dollar strength. On the Euro side, consumer sentiment measured by the GfK survey, and remarks from ECB President Christine Lagarde have highlighted inflationary pressures, which could push the European Central Bank towards a hawkish stance. With both central banks hinting at potential tightening, the EUR/USD forex pair remains at the mercy of its fundamental economic releases and policy updates in the coming days.


Price Action:
The EUR/USD price action on the pair’s H4 chart reveals a notable bullish trend, with price action testing resistance levels around 1.1184 to 1.1187. After a breakout attempt, the price faced rejection at the top of the rising channel. The pair seems to be consolidating around key support zones, reflecting market indecision as traders await further developments from central banks. The recent price decline suggests that bears have temporarily regained control, but with the price hovering near the lower boundary of the rising channel, further upward movement is possible if key support holds.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The price is trading within the cloud, signaling a potential period of consolidation. The lagging span also suggests mixed momentum, with no clear direction yet, as traders await additional catalysts.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is at 45.64, indicating neutral momentum. It's neither in the oversold nor overbought territory, suggesting that the market may be gearing up for its next significant move depending on economic news or technical breakout opportunities.
MACD: The MACD histogram remains slightly positive, with a minor bullish bias as the MACD line hovers near the signal line. However, momentum appears weak, and a more significant move would be required to confirm directionality.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: The immediate support level is 1.1129, which is aligned with the rising trendline. A breach below this level could push the pair towards the 1.1116 zone, which marks the lower boundary of the channel.
Resistance Levels: The pair faces strong resistance at 1.1184 and 1.1187, the latter being a key psychological level. A break above this resistance could set the stage for a bullish continuation towards 1.1230.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EURUSD technical analysis on its H4 chart is showing signs of consolidation as it trades near key support levels. With both the Ichimoku cloud and MACD offering mixed signals, traders should wait for a breakout either above resistance at 1.1187 or a breakdown below 1.1129 to determine the next significant directional move. Upcoming speeches by Federal Reserve and ECB officials, as well as economic data, will be crucial for traders looking to capitalize on the Fiber’s volatility. Setting appropriate risk management tools, such as stop-losses near key support/resistance zones, will be essential to navigate the EUR-USD market fluctuations.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
09.26.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.02.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:

The EUR/USD forex pair, also known as “Fiber,” reflects the relative strength of the Eurozone and US economies. Currently, the market is focused on macroeconomic data such as employment figures, inflation rates, and central bank policies. Upcoming releases, such as France’s government budget balance and unemployment data across key European economies, are critical for Euro traders. On the US side, employment data (ADP) and Federal Reserve speeches will significantly impact the US Dollar’s performance. Any stronger-than-expected ADP job growth or hawkish Fed commentary could strengthen the USD, putting further pressure on the EUR/USD forecast today.


Price Action:

The EUR/USD H4 chart has been in a downtrend within a descending channel. The pair’s price action has been unable to breach the 1.1153 resistance level and is now testing support around 1.1068. The continuation of lower highs and lower lows within the channel indicates the Fiber’s strong bearish momentum, with no immediate signs of reversal. The price is hovering near the lower boundary of the channel, suggesting potential further downside movement if the support level breaks.


Key Technical Indicators:

RSI (Relative Strength Index):

The RSI is currently at 36.73, indicating the pair is approaching oversold conditions. While this suggests bearish momentum, it also implies that a relief rally could be on the horizon, especially if the RSI dips below 30.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):

The MACD histogram is negative, with the MACD line below the signal line, reinforcing the pair’s bearish outlook. The increasing distance between the two lines suggests that bearish momentum is still strong, with no immediate signs of reversal.


Support and Resistance:

Support Levels:

Immediate support is seen at 1.1068, followed by stronger support at 1.1005, which could act as a critical level if the bearish trend continues.

Resistance Levels:

The nearest resistance stands at 1.1153, with the next significant resistance level around 1.1200 if the price manages to reverse the current downtrend.


Conclusion and Consideration:

The EUR/USD technical analysis today is displaying its strong bearish signals on the H4 timeframe, with both MACD and RSI indicators supporting the downward momentum. However, with the RSI nearing oversold conditions, a short-term pullback could be expected, but the overall EURUSD outlook remains bearish unless key resistance levels are breached. Traders should watch upcoming US employment data and Federal Reserve speeches for further direction. Risk management is crucial, especially given the volatile nature of the pair.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
10.02.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EUR/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.08.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today’s economic data releases from the Eurozone and the U.S. will likely influence the direction of the EUR/USD pair. For the Euro, German Industrial Production data reported a surprising increase of 0.8% after previously contracting by -2.4%, signaling a recovery in the manufacturing sector. This positive data, along with ECOFIN meetings and a speech by the German Bundesbank President, could boost sentiment toward the Euro.
From the U.S. side, the trade balance narrowed to -70.1B from -78.8B, reflecting improving economic conditions, which could support the U.S. Dollar. Additionally, FOMC members Kugler, Bostic, and Collins are scheduled to speak today, potentially providing insights into the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy stance. Markets will also watch the NFIB Small Business Index, expected to rise to 92.0, which could further influence USD sentiment.


Price Action:
On the H4 chart, EUR/USD has been trading in a downtrend since mid-September, with the price currently hovering near the 1.0970 level. The Bollinger Bands indicate that the pair is oversold as the price touched the lower band, suggesting that a possible rebound could be on the horizon. Despite the recent bounce, the pair remains below key moving averages, reflecting overall bearish momentum.

The MACD shows continued bearishness, with the histogram below zero and declining. However, as the pair approaches key support levels, there could be a corrective movement if buyers manage to defend these levels.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price has touched the lower band, indicating potential oversold conditions and a possible corrective bounce.
MACD: The indicator remains bearish, with the histogram and MACD line below the signal line, confirming ongoing selling pressure.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: Key support is located at 1.0945, with further support around 1.0890. A break below these levels could open the door for further declines toward 1.0865.
Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is seen at 1.1020, which coincides with the middle Bollinger Band. A breakout above this level could push the pair toward the next resistance at 1.1080.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/USD H4 chart suggests a continuation of the bearish trend unless the pair manages to break above the immediate resistance levels. A bounce from the 1.0945 support could signal a potential correction, but the broader trend remains bearish. Traders should closely monitor today's speeches from FOMC members and U.S. trade balance data, as these could provide further direction to the pair.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
10.08.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.21.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD news analysis today is influenced by various fundamental factors, including news from both the Eurozone and the United States. In the Eurozone, the Producer Price Index (PPI) released by Destatis remains a key indicator as it signals potential inflationary pressures. An actual result above the forecast would support the Euro; however, the release is still pending. Simultaneously, ongoing IMF meetings in Washington, which cover global economic outlooks and policies, could add volatility, particularly if significant policy shifts are announced. On the US side, several speeches from Federal Reserve officials, including Lorie Logan and Neel Kashkari, are anticipated. Given the potential hawkish tones, these discussions could bolster the USD, creating further downward pressure on the EUR/USD exchange rate.


Price Action:
The EUR/USD H4 candle chart, displays a consistent bearish trend with lower highs and lower lows, reflecting a continuation of selling pressure. The price remains below key levels, and attempts at a recovery are meeting resistance, as shown by several red candles indicating selling dominance. The pair’s price action shows that its price is currently hovering near a short-term support level at 1.0836, with a slight bounce observed; however, momentum remains weak, suggesting that further declines could be likely if this level fails to hold.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The Ichimoku Cloud shows that EUR/USD is trading well below the cloud, indicating the pair’s strong bearish sentiment. The Tenkan-sen (red) is below the Kijun-sen (blue), signaling ongoing selling pressure. Additionally, the leading span of the cloud remains thick and bearish, indicating a potential continuation of the downward trend.
MACD: The MACD indicator shows bearish momentum, as the MACD line is below the signal line and the histogram bars are negative. The distance between the lines is still widening, which reinforces the bearish sentiment and suggests that further downside movement may continue if the price remains below key levels.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 45.93, indicating bearish momentum but not yet reaching oversold levels. This positioning shows that while there is still room for further downward movement, the market might pause or consolidate before continuing the decline.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: The immediate support is seen at 1.0836, with further support at 1.0800. If these levels are breached, it could open the way to deeper declines, possibly toward the 1.0770 zone.
Resistance Levels: Resistance is observed at 1.0896, followed by a stronger resistance level at 1.0930, which aligns with the top of the recent consolidation range. A break above these levels could suggest a reversal; however, given the current trend, this is less likely.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/USD fundamental analysis continues to show bearish tendencies as global economic events and speeches from key US Federal Reserve members keep the market under pressure. The pair’s technical analysis on its H4 chart, with the confirmations of the Ichimoku Cloud, MACD, and RSI, all point to ongoing bearish momentum, with the price struggling to overcome resistance levels. Traders should watch for further declines if support at 1.0836 is broken and remain cautious about potential EURUSD volatility from the IMF meetings and upcoming economic data. Effective risk management strategies, such as setting stop-loss orders and monitoring key fundamental news events, are essential in this current trading environment.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
10.21.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.31.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EURUSD pair faces downward pressure from recent Eurozone data releases, showing a mixed economic picture. Germany’s retail sales disappointed with a -0.7% decline, against expectations of a 1.6% increase, suggesting weaker consumer spending and an economic slowdown. Similarly, German import prices showed a decrease of -0.4%, in line with forecasts but reflecting declining demand. France’s CPI was modestly positive at 0.2%, but Italy’s CPI came in slightly negative at -0.1%. The Eurozone’s CPI flash estimate showed an annual increase of 1.9%, slightly above expectations but still below the ECB’s target, suggesting inflation remains controlled and reducing pressure on the ECB for aggressive rate hikes.
The ECB’s recent economic bulletin reinforces a cautious outlook, as growth concerns overshadow inflationary risks. Additionally, the Eurozone’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.4%, signaling a stable but uninspiring labor market. With core inflation also below target at 2.6% annually, these factors may drive the ECB to maintain its dovish stance, potentially weakening the Euro further.
Meanwhile, the U.S. data points highlight a resilient economic landscape. Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, showed a monthly increase of 0.3%, above expectations of 0.1%, suggesting inflationary pressures remain. Personal income and spending also surpassed forecasts, signaling strong consumer demand, while unemployment claims came in slightly above forecast but still reflect a stable job market. The Chicago PMI also exceeded expectations at 46.9, indicating some improvement in U.S. manufacturing sentiment. Overall, these data points suggest continued economic strength, potentially supporting the Federal Reserve’s stance and bolstering the U.S. Dollar.


Price Action:
On the H4 timeframe, EURUSD continues to trade within a descending trend channel. The pair recently tested resistance near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and encountered selling pressure. With resistances at 1.08700 and 1.09000, the pair may face difficulty breaking higher unless there’s a strong bullish catalyst. Conversely, support levels are located at 1.08111 and 1.07860, where buyers may step in if the price moves lower.


Key Technical Indicators:
MACD: The MACD shows a slight bullish signal, with the MACD line slightly above the signal line, suggesting mild bullish momentum. However, the histogram remains close to zero, indicating limited strength in the current uptrend and a likelihood of continued bearish pressure unless upward momentum increases significantly.
RSI: The RSI stands around 58.28, showing a neutral to slightly bullish sentiment. This positioning suggests some potential for upside movement, but it remains vulnerable to reversal within the broader downtrend channel.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: Immediate support is at 1.08111, with a further key level at 1.07860, where the price may encounter stronger buying interest.
Resistance: Resistance levels are set at 1.08700 and 1.09000. A break above these levels would indicate a potential shift in sentiment, while a failure to break through would likely maintain the bearish trend.


Conclusion and Consideration:
EURUSD is in a sustained bearish trend on the H4 timeframe, with economic fundamentals favoring the U.S. Dollar amid resilient U.S. economic data and cautious Eurozone prospects. The MACD and RSI suggest a slight bullish divergence, hinting at possible short-term upside, though resistance levels may cap gains. Traders should closely monitor upcoming U.S. economic data and any ECB statements, as strong U.S. data or dovish ECB comments could push the pair lower. Conversely, any signs of improving Eurozone data or dovish Fed commentary could provide temporary relief for the Euro. Key support and resistance levels should be watched closely for breakout or reversal signals.

Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EURUSD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
10.31.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EUR/USD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 11.07.2024

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD pair, reflecting the exchange rate between the Euro (EUR) and the US Dollar (USD), is currently under significant influence from recent geopolitical and economic events. The recent re-election of Donald Trump as the US president has boosted the USD, as markets anticipate policy continuity, which often supports the dollar in times of perceived political stability. Today, traders will keep a close watch on US unemployment claims and labor cost data, both of which can impact USD strength. Additionally, the Eurozone’s economic outlook is influenced by upcoming reports, including Germany’s industrial production and trade balance data. These metrics provide insights into the health of the Eurozone’s largest economy and may support the euro if they surpass expectations. Both currencies are positioned to react to these releases, with the EUR-USD likely experiencing volatility based on these economic signals.


Price Action:
In the H4 timeframe, EUR USD experienced a sharp decline following the US election results, falling from the upper Bollinger Band to below the middle band. This strong bearish movement is marked by several consecutive bearish candles, with occasional bullish pullbacks. Over the last 10 candles, there has been a mixture of both bullish and bearish activity, with four bullish candles suggesting some recovery attempts, although the overall momentum remains bearish. The most recent candle is bullish, indicating a potential short-term upward correction within the ongoing downtrend.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands have widened significantly, indicating heightened volatility. EUR USD has moved from the upper half of the bands to the lower, and the price is now fluctuating between the lower band and the middle line. This setup often suggests a strong bearish trend with possible brief upward corrections.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is negative, reflecting bearish momentum, though it shows a slight reduction in downward momentum. This could indicate that the selling pressure is weakening, potentially leading to a consolidation or minor upward movement in the near term.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots are positioned above the EURUSD candles, indicating a bearish trend. This setup confirms ongoing downward momentum, with a potential reversal only if the dots shift below the candles.
%R (Williams %R): The %R indicator is in the oversold region, reflecting strong bearish sentiment but also indicating a potential for an upward correction. This aligns with the recent bullish candles, suggesting that the market might experience a short-term relief rally.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is found around 1.0720, aligning with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, and further support lies near 1.0660.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is around 1.0780, close to the 38.2% Fibonacci level, with stronger resistance near the 1.0850 area.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EURUSD pair on the H4 chart shows a primarily bearish outlook, influenced by recent political developments in the US and upcoming economic data releases. The indicators suggest that while bearish pressure remains dominant, there may be short-term opportunities for an upward correction, particularly as the %R is in oversold territory and the MACD’s bearish momentum is easing. Traders should closely monitor upcoming Eurozone and US data for any surprises that might shift the pair’s trajectory. Given the current conditions, cautious positioning with attention to resistance levels is advisable for those looking to trade within this bearish trend.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
11.07.2024