EURUSD Daily Analysis

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 11.22.2024

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD news analysis today remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic developments and monetary policies. Today’s fundamental signals focus on key Eurozone PMI data for both manufacturing and services sectors. The Flash PMI, which is a leading indicator of economic health, is expected to signal whether the Eurozone economy remains in contraction territory or shows signs of recovery. Meanwhile, for the US, the release of PMI and University of Michigan sentiment data could provide insights into the strength of the American economy. Additionally, comments from Federal Reserve officials may hint at future monetary policy direction, further influencing USD movements. As inflationary pressures persist in both regions, traders remain cautious about potential volatility in the EUR/USD forecast today.


Price Action:
The EUR/USD H4 candle chart exhibits a clear bearish structure, characterized by lower highs and lower lows. The pair has recently broken below key support levels, indicating sustained selling pressure. The recent candles show a rejection near resistance, with bearish momentum driving the pair toward new lows. EURUSD’s Price action suggests that sellers are in control, and the trend remains to the downside unless buyers reclaim significant levels.


Key Technical Indicators:
Stochastic RSI: The Stochastic RSI is currently at 18.78, deep in the oversold zone. This indicator further reinforces the possibility of a minor pullback, although the overall bearish sentiment remains intact.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots are consistently above the price, signaling a strong bearish trend. This indicates sustained downward momentum, with no signs of reversal yet.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is at 31.82, approaching oversold territory. While this suggests bearish dominance, it also hints at a possible short-term correction or consolidation before continuing downward.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: 1.0465 (recent low) serves as the immediate support level, while 1.0425 is the next key level, acting as a strong psychological and historical support zone.
Resistance Levels: 1.0520 is the nearest resistance, which was previously a support level now turned resistance. Further above, 1.0585 marks a critical level to watch, as it represents the recent swing high and could act as a significant barrier for bullish attempts.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/USD outlook on its H4 chart is firmly entrenched in a bearish trend, as confirmed by price action and the pair’s technical outlook with indications from the Parabolic SAR, RSI, and Stochastic RSI. While oversold conditions on the RSI and Stochastic RSI suggest the potential for a short-term correction, the overall trend remains bearish. Traders should closely monitor upcoming economic data from both the Eurozone and the US, as these releases could influence short-term volatility and momentum. Risk management is crucial, with stop losses placed below support levels for buyers and above resistance levels for sellers.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
11.22.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Daily Analysis for 12.02.2024

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EURUSD pair, reflecting the exchange rate between the Euro and the US Dollar, remains a focus for traders due to upcoming high-impact economic data from both regions. For the Eurozone, recent PMI data reflects contraction in the manufacturing sector, raising concerns about economic stagnation. Unemployment reports from Eurostat provide mixed signals, highlighting limited growth in labor market conditions. For the US Dollar, attention shifts to today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI and Construction Spending data. If these reports exceed expectations, the USD could gain strength, driven by positive economic momentum in the US manufacturing sector.
With divergent economic trajectories, the EURUSD is likely to face significant volatility as traders evaluate the implications of PMI data for future monetary policies by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve. A stronger-than-expected PMI release from the US could push the EURUSD lower, while weak data could favor the Euro.


Price Action:
The EURUSD H4 chart indicates a moderately bullish trend within a rising channel. Recent candles show consolidation near the middle Bollinger Band, suggesting a slowdown in bullish momentum. Price action has remained within the upper half of the Bollinger Bands for most of the current trend, confirming positive sentiment. However, the last two candles have shown bearish pressure, with the price nearing the middle band, signaling possible short-term consolidation or retracement.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price has been trading in the upper half of the Bollinger Bands for the past several sessions, reflecting bullish momentum. The recent candles, however, are near the middle band, indicating reduced momentum and potential consolidation. A breakdown below the middle band could lead to further downside toward the lower band.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 47.23, signaling neutral momentum. The indicator is neither overbought nor oversold, suggesting that the EURUSD could move in either direction depending on market sentiment and upcoming data.
Volumes: Volume analysis shows a decline in activity during the recent consolidation phase, reflecting uncertainty in market sentiment. A spike in volume could indicate a breakout in either direction.
Parabolic SAR: Parabolic SAR dots are currently positioned above the price, reinforcing bearish pressure in the short term. A reversal in these dots below the price would signal a renewed bullish trend.



Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: Immediate support is located at 1.0520, aligning with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and serving as a key psychological zone. If this level is breached, the next significant support could be lower, near the 1.0480 area.
Resistance: Intermediate resistance is at 1.0570, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which has acted as a short-term ceiling. Key resistance lies at 1.0618, near the 50.0% Fibonacci level, representing a crucial barrier for further bullish momentum.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EURUSD H4 analysis suggests that while the pair remains within an ascending channel, the recent price action indicates waning bullish momentum. Traders should watch for a potential breakdown below the middle Bollinger Band, which could lead to a test of the 23.6% Fibonacci support at 1.0520. On the other hand, a bullish breakout above 1.0570 could open the door for further gains toward 1.0618. Upcoming PMI and Construction Spending data will likely dictate near-term direction. Traders should approach with caution and adjust their strategies based on the evolving market environment.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
12.02.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 12.12.2024

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
Today, the EURUSD pair will be influenced by multiple economic releases from both the Eurozone and the United States. On the Eurozone side, the IT Quarterly Unemployment Rate and the ECB Main Refinancing Rate are scheduled for release. A lower-than-expected unemployment rate and a higher-than-expected interest rate would be positive for the Euro. On the US side, the Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m, and Unemployment Claims data will be released. Higher-than-expected inflation figures and lower-than-expected jobless claims would be positive for the US Dollar. Traders should closely monitor these releases as they could significantly impact the pair's price action.


Price Action
The EURUSD pair has been trading within a range in recent weeks, consolidating after a previous bullish trend. The current price action suggests a potential breakout in either direction, depending on the upcoming economic data and market sentiment. The pair is currently trading near the middle of its Bollinger Bands, indicating a period of low volatility.


Key Technical Indicators
Bollinger Bands: The narrowing Bollinger Bands suggest a period of low volatility, which could be followed by a significant price move.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 42.89, below the oversold level of 30, indicating that the Euro is undervalued relative to the US Dollar. This could lead to a bullish correction in the short term.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots are plotted above the candles, indicating a bearish trend. However, the recent flattening of the dots suggests a potential slowdown in the bearish momentum.
Force Index 13: The Force Index 13 is currently at -0.542020, indicating weak bearish momentum. A positive value would signal a shift in momentum to bullish.


Support and Resistance
Support: The immediate support level is located at 1.03315, followed by 1.03830.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 1.04345, followed by 1.04991.


Conclusion and Considerations
The EURUSD pair is currently trading in a range, with potential for a breakout in either direction. The upcoming economic releases from both the Eurozone and the US will be crucial in determining the pair's future direction. Traders should monitor these releases closely and adjust their positions accordingly. It is important to note that the EURUSD pair can be highly volatile, and traders should use stop-loss orders to manage risk.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
12.12.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 12.18.2024

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD fundamental analysis is being viewed cautiously as traders await key economic events from both the Eurozone and the United States. In focus is the speech by Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, a voting member of the ECB Governing Council, which could provide critical clues about the ECB's monetary policy outlook. A hawkish tone could support the Euro, while dovish remarks may extend bearish pressure. Additionally, the Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will shed light on inflation levels, a key factor for ECB policy decisions. On the USD side, the Building Permits and Housing Starts data will be released, serving as a leading indicator of construction activity and overall economic health. A better-than-expected US outcome may strengthen the Dollar, reinforcing the bearish bias for EUR/USD.


Price Action:
The EUR/USD H4 candle chart reveals that the pair is stuck in a downward channel, indicating a persistent bearish trend. The EURUSD price action has been making lower highs and lower lows, confirming sellers' control. The pair is currently consolidating near the 1.0493 level but remains under pressure below the descending trendline. A breakout above 1.0520, the immediate resistance level, could signal a short-term reversal, while failure to break above this level may see the price decline toward the lower support levels.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The price is trading below the Ichimoku Cloud, highlighting a EUR/USD bearish bias. The cloud between 1.0500 and 1.0520 acts as a strong resistance zone. A sustained move above the cloud could signal a trend reversal, while rejection at this level will maintain the pair’s bearish outlook.
RVI (Relative Vigor Index): The RVI (10) currently stands at -0.060, with the signal line slightly negative. This suggests a continuation of the bearish trend. A positive crossover near zero would be an early sign of a potential upward reversal.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI (14) is at 45.76, reflecting a neutral to slightly bearish sentiment. If the RSI drops below 40, it will confirm increasing bearish momentum. A push above 50 would indicate growing bullish interest.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: The 1.0483 level, is the immediate support and the 1.0450 level is the Key lower support, aligning with the descending channel bottom.
Resistance Levels: The 1.0520 level remains the Immediate resistance at the descending trendline and cloud boundary, followed by the next key resistance above the cloud 1.0545.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/USD forecast today on its H4 chart continues to show signs of a downtrend, as it remains confined within the descending channel. The bearish signals are reinforced by the Ichimoku Cloud resistance, the RSI below 50, and the RVI pointing downward. Traders should monitor 1.0520 for any breakout to the upside, which may indicate a short-term reversal, while failure to break resistance could push the pair toward 1.0483 and 1.0450. Upcoming Eurozone inflation data and Nagel’s speech could provide significant volatility, while strong US economic releases may strengthen the USD further. Traders are advised to exercise caution and implement robust risk management strategies given the current mixed market signals and fundamental events.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
12.18.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EUR/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 01.03.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD news analysis today, shows the pair is poised for significant moves with key data releases. On the Euro side, employment data reveals continued stability, with unemployment claims reflecting economic resilience. In contrast, the USD is influenced by the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid reports, which are vital indicators of economic expansion and inflation trends. Positive PMI data could strengthen the USD, exerting downward pressure on EUR/USD. Meanwhile, hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials could amplify USD's bullish momentum, adding to volatility. Traders are bracing for these fundamental drivers, which could set the tone for the EUR/USD fundamental outlook today.


Price Action:
The EUR/USD technical analysis today on its H4 chart indicates a pronounced bearish move, with the price breaking below key support levels. The large bearish candlestick signals strong seller dominance, and the pair is now testing the 1.0260 support zone. A potential retracement toward the 1.0350 level, now turned resistance, is possible before further downward movement. The overall structure suggests bearish momentum prevailing unless a decisive break above the resistance level occurs.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The price has decisively broken below the Ichimoku cloud, signaling a EURUSD bearish trend continuation. Both the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines are aligned downward, further reinforcing bearish momentum. The Lagging Span also supports this sentiment, sitting well below the price action and cloud.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram shows increasing negative momentum, with the MACD line diverging further below the signal line. This confirms the bearish momentum and suggests that selling pressure remains strong in the short term.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: Immediate support is found at 1.0260, a critical level that, if breached, could lead to further declines toward 1.0200.
Resistance Levels: Key resistance is located at 1.0350, with the next level of significant resistance at 1.0400, near the Ichimoku cloud base.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/USD forecast today tell us that it is entrenched in a bearish trend, with technical indicators and price action aligning to support further downside. Upcoming US ISM data could provide additional bearish catalysts if stronger-than-expected, bolstering the USD's position. Conversely, any weaker-than-anticipated data could trigger a short-term corrective rally. Traders should closely monitor the 1.0260 support level for a potential breakdown or reversal signals. Effective risk management, including stop-loss orders near resistance levels, is essential given the heightened volatility around today’s fundamental releases.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
01.03.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EUR/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 01.08.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD news analysis today includes upcoming U.S. labor data such as ADP employment changes and initial jobless claims, which could indicate the health of the U.S. labor market and influence Federal Reserve policy. Strong employment data will likely bolster the dollar, further adding to the EUR/USD bearish outlook. On the Eurozone side, attention turns to German industrial orders and retail sales data. Weak results from these indicators may indicate softening economic activity in the Eurozone, adding to bearish sentiment on the Euro.


Price Action:
the EUR/USD technical analysis today on its H4 candle chart shows mixed sentiment, with the price hovering near a significant support level at 1.0315. The market attempted an upward move but was rejected at the 1.0340 resistance level, forming bearish candlesticks. Sellers appear to have regained control, driving the price back below the key Ichimoku Cloud.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The price has broken below the Ichimoku Cloud, signaling bearish momentum. The lagging span further supports a EURUSD bearish bias, and the resistance offered by the Kumo suggests that upward attempts will face strong selling pressure.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is below the signal line, and the histogram is negative, confirming bearish momentum. This aligns with the pair’s price action below the Ichimoku Cloud, further supporting a bearish outlook.
RSI (14): The RSI is at 45.63, indicating neutral to slightly bearish momentum. The value is well below the overbought zone, suggesting room for further downward movement.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: 1.0315 (key horizontal support), followed by 1.0280 (next potential downside target).
Resistance Levels: 1.0340 (near-term resistance), with further resistance at 1.0375 (a prior high).


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/USD forecast today highlights bearish momentum supported by the pair’s technical indicators and its fundamental headwinds. If the price sustains below the 1.0340 resistance level, it may test the 1.0315 support and potentially move toward 1.0280. Traders should monitor U.S. labor data closely, as stronger-than-expected results could accelerate the pair's bearish trajectory. The Ichimoku Cloud and MACD both indicate bearish trends, suggesting that short positions may be favorable with appropriate risk management. However, a surprise improvement in Eurozone data could provide temporary relief to the pair.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
01.08.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 01.17.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD pair is heavily influenced by economic reports and central bank policies from both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve. The Eurozone's current economic focus is on inflation metrics and trade balances. With the ECB's monetary policy still leaning towards cautious tightening, any further increase in interest rates could support the euro. Meanwhile, the USD faces upcoming releases related to residential building permits and factory output, which will offer insights into the strength of the US economy. Given the global economic outlook, the USD is expected to hold steady or show signs of further weakness if the data disappoints.


Price Action:
The EURUSD chart for the H4 timeframe shows a clear bearish trend over the past few weeks. The EUR USD price has struggled to maintain above the mid-Bollinger Band, with an overall downward pressure indicated by the tightness of the Bollinger Bands. Despite a brief return to the middle band, the bearish candles indicate that sellers are still in control. A trendline running through the chart highlights a possible continuation of the downward pressure. The market has tested key support areas without much follow-through in price action, indicating a potential break or consolidation soon.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands have tightened, indicating that volatility in EUR/USD is decreasing. The price has been fluctuating between the middle and lower bands. After moving from the lower band, the price has struggled to hold above the middle band, indicating that the market may not have sufficient momentum to push higher, and could be preparing for another dip.
Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse): The Parabolic SAR is showing spots above the candles, signaling a bearish trend. This is consistent with the ongoing price action, which suggests that the market is likely to continue in its bearish direction unless a reversal occurs with stronger momentum.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI currently sits at 49.94, suggesting that the EURUSD is in a neutral zone, neither overbought nor oversold. This indicates that there is still room for further downward movement or an eventual reversal, depending on market conditions.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD is showing a very slight negative divergence with the histogram below the zero line, indicating a weakening bearish momentum. However, the EUR-USD price is still below the signal line, suggesting that the bearish trend could persist unless a stronger bullish crossover occurs.
%R (Williams Percent Range): The Williams Percent Range (%R) sits at -68.43, indicating that the price is approaching oversold conditions but has not yet reached the extreme levels. This suggests potential for a reversal if buying pressure intensifies, but for now, the market remains largely bearish.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The immediate support is at 1.01773, which has acted as a significant level for EURUSD price consolidation in recent weeks. A breakdown below this level could open the door for further downside toward 1.0100.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is around 1.03200, with further resistance seen at 1.03435, which coincides with recent highs and the middle Bollinger Band. A clear break above this level could signal a potential shift to a more neutral or bullish bias.


Conclusion and Consideration:
EUR/USD continues to face a challenging market environment, as the EUR USD pair remains within a clear bearish trend. The technical indicators point towards potential further downside, but the tightening Bollinger Bands, coupled with a neutral RSI, suggest that the market is in a consolidation phase. Traders should watch the key support levels at 1.01773 and 1.0100, as a break below could signal a deeper bearish move. The upcoming data from both the Eurozone and the US will be crucial in determining the next market direction, so caution is advised.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
01.17.2025