HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 6th March 2025.

The Euro is on The Rise But Is the Currency Overbought?

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The Euro rose more than 4% over four days making it the currency’s best performance since COVID lockdowns. The upward price movement is primarily driven by the European bond market which saw its worst day since the 1990s. However, investors are now evaluating whether the Euro is overbought.

Why Is the Euro Increasing in Value?

The Euro's rise is driven by the EU's new ‘re-arm’ plans, announced by the European Commission President. This is in response to the US suspending military aid to Ukraine. Analysts believe increased military spending will strengthen the Euro in the short term, but its impact may fade, especially if the Ukraine-Russia conflict ends. The US is looking to achieve this by halting aid and no longer sharing military intelligence.

In addition, the German Bond fell and witnessed their worst day in almost 30 years. As a result the higher bond yields also continue to support the Euro. Currently, the Euro Index is trading 0.09% higher and is only witnessing a decline against the Japanese Yen. However, the price movement of the Euro will also depend on the European Central Bank and potential Trump Tariffs.

Economists remain convinced that Trump's tariff threats are serious and will be imposed on the EU. Just last week, he announced that Washington will impose 25% tariffs on Europe-made ‘cars and all other things’. On April 2nd, Washington plans to introduce another round of ‘reciprocal’ tariffs, adding to those already in effect. Germany remains particularly vulnerable, as a large portion of its industry relies on exports to the US. This can potentially have a negative effect on the Euro and the European stock market.

Is the European Central Bank a Risk for the Euro?

The European Central Bank is due to announce its rate decision this afternoon and conduct a press conference thereafter. The ECB may potentially aim to calm the market after German Bonds took a hit. If the ECB remains dovish and also reassures the market of the Eurozone’s fiscal and monetary policy, the Euro can retrace in the short term. Analysts currently advise today’s ECB meeting will most likely be the most interesting in years and the most unpredictable.

Markets are expecting a rate of 2.65% from the ECB. Analysts at Morgan Stanley believe the ECB will maintain its "dovish" stance in March and April to support the economy, especially as inflation slowed to 2.4% in February from 2.5% the previous month, nearing the 2.0% target. If the ECB advice rates are likely to continue falling in 2025, the Euro will struggle to maintain bullish momentum.

EURUSD - Technical Analysis and Indicators

The EURUSD is still witnessing indications of bullish price movement on the 2-hour chart and fundamentals also support the upward price movement. However, simultaneously, the price is obtaining indications the currency is overbought in the short to medium term. The EURUSD is trading above the overbought level on the RSI and is obtaining a divergence signal on most timeframes.

Therefore, the possibility of the price being overbought and retracing remains, but the price action will depend on the ECB. Until the ECB’s rate decision and press conference, the average price at 1.08000 will be key as it has been so far today.

Key Takeaway Points:

* The Euro surged over 4% in four days, its best performance since COVID lockdowns, driven by European bond market turmoil.
* The EU’s ‘re-arm’ plans and rising German bond yields boost the Euro, but US tariffs and ECB decisions may impact its trend.
* The ECB’s upcoming rate decision and monetary policy stance could shape short-term price movements, with a dovish approach expected.
* Despite strong fundamentals, RSI overbought levels and divergence signals suggest a possible retracement, depending on the ECB.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 7th March 2025.

How Will Gold React After Today’s Non-Farm Employment Change?

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As the US employment data approaches, Gold continues to trade sideways showing range-bound trading conditions. This is primarily due to investors waiting for further data to determine Gold’s intrinsic value. How will today’s Non-Farm Payroll release influence the price of Gold?

Will Gold Break Out of Its Range After Today’s NFP Release?

The Non-Farm Employment Change will be in the spotlight as investors expect the figure to remain relatively low. However, traders are also focused on the Unemployment Rate and Average Monthly Earnings. If this afternoon’s employment data reads similar to current expectations, the price of Gold may continue witnessing range-bound trading conditions. In this scenario, the average price of the past three days would be key. The average price is currently $2,913.70.

Whereas, if the NFP indicates an employment sector which continues to show resilience and strong data, the price of Gold may witness a decline. This is mainly due to strong employment data strengthening the USD, boosting the US stocks, and reducing 2025 rate cuts. If the price of Gold is to decline, Moving Averages indicate the price could fall between $2,899.00 and $2,906.75 in the short term. However, this would depend on how much stronger the employment data is.

On the other hand, if the Unemployment Rate rises and the Non-Farm Employment Change falls below 155,000, Gold could quickly regain momentum. The weaker employment data would increase the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March or could make a cut certain for May 2025. As a result, the weaker US Dollar could support Gold as well as the market’s lower risk appetite. Gold’s safe haven status can come into play if data is significantly weaker.

US Employment Sector

Yesterday’s labour market data showed initial jobless claims rose to 221,000, lower than the expected 234,000 and the previous 242,000. The four-week average increased slightly to 224,250, while total benefit recipients climbed from 1.855 million to 1.897 million, exceeding the 1.88 million forecast. However, the main negativity came from the ADP Employment Change which fell to 77,000, the lowest in three years.

The labour market remains under pressure, showing signs of cooling. If Friday’s federal data confirms this trend, the chances of Gold reaching the $3,000 target set by Wall Street increases.

China Continues Boosting Gold Demand!

China has launched a pilot program allowing ten national insurance companies to invest in gold through standard contracts, limited to 1% of their available assets. The country continues to be one of the countries driving demand for the commodity significantly higher along with Russia, India and Turkey. With industry revenues exceeding $700 billion, even modest investments could boost global demand for gold by 1.5–2.0% according to reports.

Gold (XAUUSD) - Technical Analysis

The White House announced a one-month delay on the 25% tariff for vehicles under the USMCA trade agreement. Economists also advise that the US is looking to negotiate with both Canada and Mexico on trade policies. If an agreement is made, the price of Gold may decline due to a stronger US Dollar and higher market sentiment. Currently, the US Dollar Index trades 0.37% lower and is the worst-performing currency of the day which is a positive for Gold.

In terms of technical analysis and price action, the asset has been witnessing range-bound conditions between $2,891 and $2,929.85. If these conditions are to continue the average price of $2,913.70 will be key and may be continuously hit. However, the price remains slightly above the 75-Bar EMA and 100-Bar SMA indicating a slight bullish bias. The instrument is also trading above the VWAP and RSI 50.00 level which is another positive for bullish traders.

Key Takeaway Points:

* Gold remains range-bound as investors await US employment data, with the NFP release likely to determine its next move. Analysts expect the US to add a further 159,000 jobs and the Unemployment Rate to remain at 4.00%.
* Strong employment data could strengthen the US Dollar and push Gold lower. While weaker data may boost Gold by increasing Fed rate cut expectations.
* China’s new gold investment program and ongoing demand from Russia, India, and Turkey could further drive global gold prices higher.
* Technical indicators suggest a slightly bullish bias, but Gold remains within a defined range between $2,891 and $2,929.85, with $2,913.70 as a key level.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 10th March 2025.

SNP500 Hits a 6-Month Low: Trade Policy & Recession Fears Weigh on Market`s.

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The SNP500 completes a 3-week decline and falls to its lowest price since September 2024. The price continues to remain under pressure from President Trump’s trade policy. In addition to this, investors are becoming increasingly cautious about a potential US recession.

SNP500 - Trade Policy and The Federal Reserve’s View On The Economy

The US Non-Farm Employment data on Friday read lower than what analysts were expecting. However, the data does not yet indicate a recession. Investors are increasingly showing a lower risk appetite and cautiousness due to Trump’s trade policy on China, Mexico and Canada. The NFP Change read 151,000, 8,000 lower than predictions and the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.1%.

The poor price movement is more driven by comments from the US President. Yesterday evening on Fox News, the US President addressed concerns about a potential US recession, advising the economy will undergo ‘a period of transition.’ However, some see this as a subtle warning of a short economic downturn. Though the Chairman of the Federal Reserve is taking a different tone and looking to reassure the market.

Mr Jerome Powell advises the FOMC is not expecting or worried about a US recession. ‘The US economy remains in a strong position despite heightened uncertainty,’ Powell stated at a University of Chicago event. He also said that sentiment readings have been a reliable tool for predicting consumption growth in recent years. ‘There is no need to rush, we are in a good position to wait for more clarity,’ was his answer to questions about interest rates.

On the one hand, the SNP500 may witness support from the positive comments from the Fed regarding the economy. He also clarified that certain economic indicators are not predicting a recession regardless of the lower figures. However, the comments on interest rates and keeping them unchanged for a longer period can pressure the price of the index.

Will The SNP500 Continue Declining?

The FedWatch tool indicated a 92% chance of a pause in this month’s Fed Rate Decision, but the figure has risen to 97%. If the possibility of a rate cut continues to be unlikely in the near future, the SNP500 may continue to remain under pressure. Currently, the VIX, an index used as an indication of risk, is trading more than 4.00% higher. For this reason, the VIX continues to indicate a poor performance in the short-term.

Asian and European indices are trading lower this morning as are US indices. As a result, the performance of the global stock market shows a ‘risk off’ sentiment.

SNP500 - Technical Analysis

The price of the SNP500 is currently trading 0.73% lower and gains bearish momentum as the European market opens. In the 2-hour timeframe, the price is trading below the main Moving Averages and VWAP. The index also remains within the ‘sell’ zone of the RSI and MACD. On the 3-minute chart, the price remains below the 200-bar SMA and sell signals may continue to materialize for as long as the price remains below this level.

Key Takeaway Points:

* The SNP500 has declined for three consecutive weeks, hitting its lowest level since September 2024. The main cause of pressure is from Trump’s trade policies and recession concerns.
* Weaker-than-expected US employment data raised caution. However, the Fed reassured markets, stating there is no imminent recession and no rush to adjust interest rates.
* The FedWatch tool now shows a 97% chance of a rate pause, reducing hopes for near-term cuts.
* Technical indicators suggest continued bearish momentum, with the index trading below key moving averages and remaining in the sell zone on RSI.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 11th March 2025.

Recession Fears Grow as Market Sell-Off Deepens.

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Recession fears escalated following weekend comments from President Donald Trump, who described the US as being in a "period of transition" when questioned about economic risks. Concerns over tariffs and their global economic impact have heightened uncertainty and weakened investor confidence. A JPMorgan model recently indicated a 31% market-implied probability of a US recession, while a similar Goldman Sachs model suggests rising recession risks. Meanwhile, disappointing earnings guidance from major firms, including big tech companies, has fueled a bearish market outlook.

Broader market fears are compounding the downturn. Investors remain wary of economic recession signals, exacerbated by trade uncertainties and shifting fiscal policies. The S&P 500 has erased its post-election gains, and speculative assets—including crypto-linked stocks and ETFs—are facing aggressive sell-offs.

Stock Market Plunge: Major Indexes in the Red

The NASDAQ tumbled -4.0%, while the S&P 500 dropped -2.70%, and the Dow Jones declined -2.08%, pushing major indexes into negative territory for the year. Global equities also suffered sharp declines.

Amid this turmoil, Treasury yields fell as investors sought safe-haven assets, reinforcing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in June. The 2-year yield dropped -11.6 bps to 3.883%, while the 10-year yield slipped -8.5 bps to 4.218%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) firmed slightly to 103.926, recovering from its session low of 103.559, the weakest level since November.

Commodities Struggle Amid Market Volatility

Despite Wall Street’s sell-off, gold remained flat at $2,888 per ounce, failing to gain traction as a safe-haven asset. Oil prices also dipped by -0.26% to $65.86 per barrel, reflecting broader economic concerns.

Oil tracked equity markets and risk assets amid concerns that tariffs and other measures could stunt growth in the world’s largest economy. Oil has fallen nearly 20% from its mid-January high as Trump’s tariff hikes and push to cut federal spending darken the economic outlook for the largest oil producer and consumer. Other bearish factors include OPEC+ plans to increase supply and weakening demand in China, where refiners are being urged to shift away from producing key fuels like diesel and gasoline.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright provided some bullish sentiment, stating that the Trump administration is prepared to enforce US sanctions on Iranian oil production. He made the remarks at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston on Monday.

Executives from major oil producers—including Chevron Corp., Shell Plc, and Saudi Aramco—expressed strong support for Trump’s energy dominance agenda at the gathering. Vitol Group CEO Russell Hardy projected oil prices to range between $60 and $80 per barrel over the next few years.

Key US Economic Data Releases This Week

Investors are bracing for significant economic data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report. While the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) remains focused on inflation, Tuesday’s JOLTS report could drive market reactions amid heightened recession concerns.

In December, job openings declined -556K to 7.6 million, near the lowest level since January 2021. The opening rate has also fallen to 4.5%, down from 5.3% a year ago. Meanwhile, the quit rate—a key measure of labour market confidence—held at 2.0%, compared to 3.0% at its peak.

Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations Shift

Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations Shift
Fed funds futures indicate expectations for three quarter-point rate cuts in 2025, as economic slowdown concerns overshadow inflation fears. The futures market now anticipates the first rate cut in June, with the implied rate reflecting -30 bps in cuts. September pricing suggests -59 bps, while December signals -78 bps in total easing. However, the Fed remains in its blackout period ahead of its March 18-19 meeting.

Tech Stocks Hit Hard as Nasdaq 100 Falls 3.8%
The Nasdaq 100 suffered its worst single-day decline since October 2022, falling -3.8%. At intraday lows, the index was down -4.7%, erasing more than $1 trillion in market value.

Key factors driving the sell-off include tariff-related uncertainty, declining confidence in AI spending, and disappointing inflation and labour data. The so-called "Magnificent 7" tech stocks, which led the recent bull market, experienced steep losses.

Among the biggest losers were:

Tesla (-15.4%) – its worst day since September 2020 amid falling sales and concerns over CEO Elon Musk’s focus on the company.
MicroStrategy (-16.7%)
AppLovin (-12%)
Palantir (-10.1%)
Atlassian (-9.6%)

Broader Market Impact: Treasury Yields Drop as Safe-Haven Demand Rises

As recession fears mount, Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield hitting its lowest level this year. This decline reflects investors' growing preference for safer assets.

On the risk-asset front, Bitcoin plummeted to nearly $77,000, marking its lowest level since November, as investors moved away from speculative assets amid economic uncertainty.

Cryptocurrency-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been hit hard. Among the biggest losers were two leveraged ETFs tied to Bitcoin-holding firm MicroStrategy, both of which dropped over 30% in a single day. Additionally, an ETF doubling the daily returns of Robinhood Markets Inc.—a favoured brokerage among crypto traders—plummeted 40%. Leveraged Bitcoin funds fell approximately 20%, while those focused on Ethereum declined 26% amid the broader digital asset selloff.

The downturn highlights growing uncertainty in the crypto market, particularly as speculation surrounding regulatory policies and economic conditions intensifies. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies initially surged post-election, driven by optimism over potential policy shifts.

With key economic reports and the Fed meeting approaching, markets remain on edge. Recession fears, tech sell-offs, and shifting rate-cut expectations continue to drive volatility. Investors will closely watch upcoming data releases to gauge economic resilience and potential Federal Reserve actions in the coming months.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 12th March 2025.

Eyes on Inflation: Market Volatility, Tariffs, and Geopolitical Tensions Shake Wall Street.

It was another volatile session as markets assessed fresh news on tariffs and Ukraine, all while positioning for upcoming economic reports like the JOLTS data and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Wall Street closed lower but off its lows, with the Dow slipping by -1.14%, finishing at 41,433, after dropping to a session low of 41,175. This decline followed reports that President Trump would increase tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium by another 25%, bringing the total levy to 50%. This move was seen as retaliation for Ontario’s 25% tariff on US electricity imports.
This news lifted some of the market's anxiety, though fears of the ongoing trade war and its broader economic implications remains. The tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports could potentially revive US factory jobs. This decision adds to the growing uncertainty surrounding the stock market, which is grappling with concerns about an economic slowdown.
The S&P 500 closed with a -0.76% loss, settling at 5572, just shy of correction territory, while the NASDAQ fell by -0.18% to 17,436 after fluctuating in and out of positive territory.
Treasury Yields and the Stock Market: Diverging Signals
Despite the declines in stocks, treasury yields saw a rise, with the 2-year up 6.2 basis points at 3.945%, the 3-year increasing by 6 basis points at 3.950%, and the 10-year rising 6.5 basis points to 4.283%. The 30-year saw a 5.5 basis point drop, closing at 4.600%. There was stronger selling, even with a solid 3-year auction, and some haven demand began to fade as dip buyers emerged in the stock market. The dollar closed slightly off its lows at 103.375, while oil ended the day up 0.8% at $66.50 per barrel. Gold also saw an increase of 0.96%, reaching $2916.49 per ounce.

European Stocks Poised for Stronger Open​

European stocks were expected to open stronger after Trump sought to reassure investors about the outlook for the US economy. Furthermore, Ukraine agreed to a proposal for a 30-day truce with Russia, giving markets some hope for geopolitical stability. Despite these developments, markets remain nervous about the future, with concerns over sticky inflation, Trump’s tariff policy, and the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts all weighing heavily on investor sentiment.
The VIX, a gauge of stock market volatility, remains elevated near its highest level since August. Similarly, measures of volatility in the US Treasury market are at their highest levels since November. With economic growth in the U.S. uncertain, market participants are feeling the pressure.

Geopolitical and Economic Risks: The EU Responds​

In response to the new US tariffs on steel and aluminium, the European Union announced it would impose duties on American goods worth €26 billion ($28.3 billion). The European Commission’s swift action underscores the growing global trade tensions and the potential for further escalation.
Trump's Economic Strategy: A Mixed Picture
President Trump sought to calm recession fears, declaring, “I don’t see it at all. I think this country’s going to boom.” He added that market fluctuations are natural, stating, “Markets are going to go up and they’re going to go down. But you know what, we have to rebuild our country.” While the president's optimism contrasts with market fears, analysts remain cautious, particularly given the increasing uncertainty about US economic growth and the potential consequences of the ongoing trade wars.
In a meeting with top executives, Trump stressed the importance of speeding up the approval process for environmental regulations and hinted at plans to announce a major electricity project soon. He also suggested that companies manufacturing in the US could benefit from reduced business taxes.
Markets Look to Inflation Data
Investors are also closely watching the US consumer inflation reading, set to be released later in the day. The CPI is expected to advance by 0.3% in February, following a 0.5% increase at the start of the year. Analysts are concerned that if inflation remains sticky, the Federal Reserve may lack the flexibility to cut interest rates, especially if Trump's economic policies lead to a sharp slowdown in growth.
Commodities: Oil and Gold on the Rise
In commodities, oil extended its gains after the US revised its global oversupply forecast. Gold continued its upward momentum, supported by safe-haven demand amid market uncertainty.

Final Thoughts: Tariffs, Fed Policy, and Market Volatility​

As we move forward into 2025, one key question remains: Do tariffs matter more than the Fed's policies for US stock markets?
The answer may depend on how markets react to future trade developments, inflation data, and the Federal Reserve’s actions. As the market navigates this volatile environment, investors will need to stay vigilant and adaptable, ready to respond to the ever-evolving landscape of tariffs, inflation, and economic growth.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.