HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 3rd April 2025.

Gold Prices Pull Back After Record High as Traders Eye Trump’s Tariffs.

Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Key Takeaways:

* Gold prices retreated after hitting a record high of $3,167.57 per ounce due to profit-taking.
* President Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all US imports, escalating trade tensions.
* Gold remains exempt from reciprocal tariffs, reinforcing its safe-haven appeal.
* Investors await US non-farm payroll data for further market direction.
* Fed rate cut bets and weaker US Treasury yields underpin gold’s bullish outlook.

Gold Prices Retreat from Record Highs Amid Profit-Taking

Gold prices saw a pullback on Thursday as traders opted to take profits following a historic surge. Spot gold declined 0.4% to $3,122.10 per ounce as of 0710 GMT, retreating from its fresh all-time high of $3,167.57. Meanwhile, US gold futures slipped 0.7% to $3,145.00 per ounce, reflecting broader market uncertainty over economic and geopolitical developments.

The recent rally was largely fueled by concerns over escalating trade tensions after President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping new import tariffs. The 10% baseline tariff on all goods entering the US further deepened the global trade conflict, intensifying investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold. However, as traders locked in gains from the surge, prices saw a modest retracement.

Trump’s Tariffs and Their Market Implications

On Wednesday, Trump introduced a sweeping tariff policy imposing a 10% baseline duty on all imports, with significantly higher tariffs on select nations. While this move was aimed at bolstering domestic manufacturing, it sent shockwaves across global markets, fueling inflation concerns and heightening trade war fears.

Gold’s Role Amid Trade War Escalations

Despite the widespread tariff measures, the White House clarified that reciprocal tariffs do not apply to gold, energy, and ‘certain minerals that are not available in the US’. This exemption suggests that central banks and institutional investors may continue favouring gold as a hedge against economic instability. One of the key factors supporting gold is the slowdown that these tariffs could cause in the US economy, which raises the likelihood of future Federal Reserve rate cuts. Gold is currently in a pure momentum trade. Market participants are on the sidelines and until we see a significant shakeout, this momentum could persist.

Impact on the US Dollar and Bond Yields

Gold prices typically move inversely to the US dollar, and the latest developments have pushed the dollar to its weakest level since October 2024. Market participants are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate cut, as the tariffs could weigh on economic growth.

Additionally, US Treasury yields have plummeted, reflecting growing recession fears. Lower bond yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making it a more attractive investment.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch

Gold’s recent rally has pushed it into overbought territory, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 70. This indicates a potential short-term pullback before the uptrend resumes. The immediate support level lies at $3,115, aligning with the Asian session low. A further decline could bring gold towards the $3,100 psychological level, which has previously acted as a strong support zone. Below this, the $3,076–$3,057 region represents a critical weekly support range where buyers may re-enter the market. In the event of a more significant correction, $3,000 stands as a major psychological floor.

On the upside, gold faces immediate resistance at $3,149. A break above this level could signal renewed bullish momentum, potentially leading to a retest of the record high at $3,167. If bullish momentum persists, the next target is the $3,200 psychological barrier, which could pave the way for further gains. Despite the recent pullback, the broader trend remains bullish, with dips likely to be viewed as buying opportunities.

Looking Ahead: Non-Farm Payrolls and Fed Policy

Traders are closely monitoring Friday’s US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, which could provide critical insights into the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves. A weaker-than-expected jobs report may strengthen expectations for an interest rate cut, further boosting gold prices.

Other key economic data releases, such as jobless claims and the ISM Services PMI, may also impact market sentiment in the short term. However, with rising geopolitical uncertainties, trade tensions, and a weakening US dollar, gold’s safe-haven appeal remains strong.

Conclusion: While short-term profit-taking may trigger minor corrections, gold’s long-term outlook remains bullish. As global trade tensions mount and the Federal Reserve leans toward a more accommodative stance, gold could see further gains in the months ahead.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 4th April 2025.

USDJPY Falls to 25-Week Low as Safe Havens Surge and Markets Eye NFP Data.

Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Safe haven currencies and the traditional alternative to the US Dollar continue to increase in value while the Dollar declines. Investors traditionally opt to invest in the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc at times of uncertainty and when they wish to avoid the Dollar. The Japanese Yen continues to be the best-performing currency of the week and of the day. Will this continue to be the case after today’s US employment figures?

USDJPY - NFP Data And Trade Negotiations

The USDJPY is currently trading at a 25-week low and is witnessing one of its strongest declines this week. The exchange rate is no longer obtaining indications from the RSI that the price is oversold. The current bullish swing is obtaining indications of divergence as the price fails to form a higher high. Therefore, short-term momentum is in favour of the US Dollar, but there are still signs the Japanese Yen can regain momentum quickly.

USDJPY 1-Hour Chart

The price movement of the exchange rate in both the short and long term will depend on 3 factors. Today’s US employment data, next week’s inflation rate and most importantly the progress of negotiations between the US and trade partners. If today’s Unemployment Rate increases above 4.1%, the reading will be the highest seen so far in 2025. Currently, the market expects the Unemployment Rate to remain at 4.1% and the Non-Farm Payroll Change to add 137,000 jobs. The average NFP reading this year so far has been 194,000.

If data does not meet expectations, US investors may continue to increase exposure away from the Dollar and to other safe-haven assets. Previously investors were expecting only 2 rate cuts this year from the Federal Reserve, however, most investors now expect up to 4. If today’s employment data deteriorates, economists advise the Federal Reserve may opt to cut interest rates sooner.

Therefore, it is important to note that today’s NFP will influence the USDJPY to a large extent. Whereas in the longer-term, trade negotiations will steal the spotlight. If trade partners are able to negotiate the US Dollar can correct back upwards. Whereas, if other countries retaliate and do not negotiate the US Dollar will remain weak.

USDJPY - The Yen and the Bank of Japan

The Japanese Yen is the best-performing currency in 2025 increasing by 6.70% so far. Risk indicators such as the VIX and High-Low Indexes continue to worsen which is positive for the JPY as a safe haven currency.

Yesterday Japan released March business activity data that came in weaker than expected: the Services PMI dropped from 53.7 to 50.0, while the Composite PMI fell from 52.0 to 48.9. The data is the lowest in two years. These figures could hinder further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. However, most economists still expect the Bank Of Japan to hike at least once more. It's also important to note, that even if the BOJ opts for a prolonged pause, a cut is not likely.

Additionally, a 24% tariff was imposed on Japanese exports to the US yesterday. Prime Minister Mr Ishiba expressed disappointment over Japan's failure to secure a tariff exemption and pledged support measures to help domestic industries manage the impact.

Key Takeaways:

* US Dollar Weakens, Safe Havens Rise: The Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc continue to gain as investors shift away from the US Dollar.
* USDJPY Under Pressure: USDJPY trades at a 25-week low, with short-term momentum favouring the Dollar but long-term trends pointing to potential Yen strength.
* NFP and Unemployment Crucial: Today’s Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment figures will heavily influence short-term USDJPY. On the other hand, trade negotiations will dictate longer-term trends.
* Japan Faces Mixed Signals: Despite weak PMI data and new US tariffs, the Japanese Yen remains strong. Economists expect at least one more rate hike from the Bank of Japan, but no cuts are in sight.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 7th April 2025.

Asian Markets Plunge as US-China Trade War Escalates; Wall Street Futures Signal Further Turmoil.

Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Global financial markets extended last week’s massive sell-off as tensions between the US and its major trading partners deepened, rattling investors and prompting sharp declines across equities, commodities, and currencies. The fallout from President Trump’s sweeping new tariff measures continued to spread, raising fears of a full-blown trade war and economic recession.

Asian stock markets plunged on Monday, extending a global market rout fueled by rising tensions between the US and China. The latest wave of aggressive tariffs and retaliatory measures has unnerved investors worldwide, triggering sharp sell-offs across the Asia-Pacific region.

Asian equities led the global rout on Monday, with dramatic losses seen across the region. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index tumbled more than 8% shortly after the open, while the broader Topix fell over 6.5%, recovering only slightly from steeper losses. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite sank 6.7%, and the blue-chip CSI300 dropped 7.5% as markets reopened following a public holiday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index opened more than 9% lower, reflecting deep concerns about escalating trade tensions.

South Korea’s Kospi dropped 4.8%, triggering a circuit breaker designed to curb panic selling. Taiwan’s Taiex index collapsed by nearly 10%, with major tech exporters like TSMC and Foxconn hitting circuit breaker limits after each fell close to 10%. Meanwhile, Australia’s ASX 200 shed as much as 6.3%, and New Zealand’s NZX 50 lost over 3.5%.

Despite the escalation, Beijing has adopted a measured tone. Chinese officials urged investors not to panic and assured markets that the country has the tools to mitigate economic shocks. At the same time, they left the door open for renewed trade talks, though no specific timeline has been set.

US Stock Futures Plunge Ahead of Monday Open

US stock futures pointed to another brutal day on Wall Street. Futures tied to the S&P 500 dropped over 3%, Nasdaq futures sank 4%, and Dow Jones futures lost 2.5%—equivalent to nearly 1,000 points. The Nasdaq Composite officially entered a bear market on Friday, down more than 20% from its recent highs, while the S&P 500 is nearing bear territory. The Dow closed last week in correction. Oil prices followed suit, with WTI crude dropping over 4% to $59.49 per barrel—its lowest since April 2021.

Wall Street closed last week in disarray, erasing more than $5 trillion in value amid fears of an all-out trade war. The Nasdaq Composite officially entered a bear market on Friday, sinking more than 20% from its recent peak. The S&P 500 is approaching bear territory, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has slipped firmly into correction territory.

German Banks Hit Hard Amid Escalating Trade Tensions

German banking stocks were among the worst hit in Europe. Shares of Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank plunged between 9.5% and 10.3% during early Frankfurt trading, compounding Friday’s steep losses. Fears over a global trade war and looming recession are severely impacting the financial sector, particularly export-driven economies like Germany.

Eurozone Growth at Risk

Eurozone officials are bracing for economic fallout, with Greek central bank governor Yannis Stournaras warning that Trump’s tariff policy could reduce eurozone GDP by up to 1%. The EU is preparing retaliatory tariffs on $28 billion worth of American goods—ranging from steel and aluminium to consumer products like dental floss and luxury jewellery.

Starting Wednesday, the US is expected to impose 25% tariffs on key EU exports, with Brussels ready to respond with its own 20% levies on nearly all remaining American imports.

UK Faces £22 Billion Economic Blow

In the UK, fresh research from KPMG revealed that the British economy could shrink by £21.6 billion by 2027 due to US-imposed tariffs. The analysis points to a 0.8% dip in economic output over the next two years, undermining Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ growth agenda. The report also warned of additional fiscal pressure that may lead to future tax increases and public spending cuts.

Wall Street Braces for Recession

Goldman Sachs revised its US recession probability to 45% within the next year, citing tighter financial conditions and rising policy uncertainty. This marks a sharp jump from the 35% risk estimated just last month—and more than double January’s 20% projection. J.P. Morgan issued a bleaker outlook, now forecasting a 60% chance of recession both in the US and globally.

Global Leaders Respond as Trade Tensions Deepen

The dramatic market sell-off was triggered by China’s sweeping retaliation to a new round of US tariffs, which included a 34% levy on all American imports. Beijing’s state-run People’s Daily released a defiant statement, asserting that China has the tools and resilience to withstand economic pressure from Washington. ‘We’ve built up experience after years of trade conflict and are prepared with a full arsenal of countermeasures,’ it stated.

Around the world, policymakers are responding to the growing threat of a trade-led economic slowdown. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced plans to appeal directly to Washington and push for tariff relief, following the US administration’s decision to impose a blanket 24% tariff on Japanese imports. He aims to visit the US soon to present Japan’s case as a fair trade partner.

In Taiwan, President Lai Ching-te said his administration would work closely with Washington to remove trade barriers and increase purchases of American goods in an effort to reduce the bilateral trade deficit. The island's defence ministry has also submitted a new list of US military procurements to highlight its strategic partnership.

Economists and strategists are warning of deeper economic consequences. Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard, said the scale and speed of these tariffs could result in far more severe damage than previously anticipated. ‘This isn’t just a bilateral conflict anymore — more countries are likely to respond in the coming weeks,’ he noted.

Analysts at Barclays cautioned that smaller Asian economies, such as Singapore and South Korea, may face challenges in negotiating with Washington and are already adjusting their economic growth forecasts downward in response to the unfolding trade crisis.

Oil Prices Sink on Demand Concerns

Crude oil continued its sharp slide on Monday, driven by recession fears and weakened global demand. Brent fell 3.9% to $63.04 a barrel, while WTI plunged over 4% to $59.49—both benchmarks marking weekly losses exceeding 10%. Analysts say inflationary pressures and slowing economic activity may drag demand down, even though energy imports were excluded from the latest round of tariffs.

Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights noted, ‘The market is struggling to find a bottom. Until there’s a clear signal from Trump that calms recession fears, crude prices will remain under pressure.’

OPEC+ Adds Further Pressure with Output Hike

Bearish sentiment intensified after OPEC+ announced it would boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, far surpassing the expected 135,000 bpd. The alliance called on overproducing nations to submit compensation plans by April 15. Analysts fear this surprise move could undo years of supply discipline and weigh further on already fragile oil markets.

Global political risks also flared over the weekend. Iran rejected US proposals for direct nuclear negotiations and warned of potential military action. Meanwhile, Russia claimed fresh territorial gains in Ukraine’s Sumy region and ramped up attacks on surrounding areas—further darkening the outlook for markets.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 8th April 2025.

Markets Rebound Cautiously as US-China Tariff Tensions Deepen

Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Global markets staged a tentative recovery on Tuesday following a wave of volatility sparked by escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. The Asia-Pacific region showed signs of stability after a chaotic start to the week—though some pockets remained under pressure. Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 4.4%, dragged lower by losses in tech heavyweight TSMC. The world’s largest chipmaker fell another 4% on Tuesday and has now slumped 13.5% since April 2, when US President Donald Trump first unveiled what he called ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.

However, broader sentiment across the region turned more positive, with several markets rebounding sharply after Monday’s dramatic sell-offs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged over 6% in early trading, rebounding from an 18-month low. South Korea’s Kospi rose marginally, and Australia’s ASX 200 gained 1.9%, driven by strength in mining stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.6%, though still far from recovering from Monday’s 13.2% crash—its worst day since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.9%.

In Europe, DAX and FTSE 100 are up more than 1% in opening trade. EU Commission President von der Leyen repeated yesterday that the EU had offered reciprocal zero tariffs on manufactured goods previously and continues to stand by that offer. Others are also trying again to talk to Trump to get some sort of agreement that limits the impact.

Much of the rally appeared to be driven by dip-buying, as well as hopes that the intensifying trade war could still be defused through negotiations.

China Strikes Back: ‘We Will Fight to the End’

Tensions reached a boiling point after Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports unless Beijing rolled back its retaliatory measures by April 8. ‘If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long-term trading abuses by tomorrow... the United States will impose additional tariffs on China of 50%,’ Trump declared on social media.

If implemented, the new tariffs would bring total US duties on Chinese goods to a staggering 124%, factoring in the existing 20%, the 34% recently announced, and the proposed 50%.

In response, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a stern warning, stating: ‘The US threat to escalate tariffs is a mistake on top of a mistake... If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.’ The ministry also called for equal and respectful dialogue, though signs of compromise on either side remain scarce.

Beijing acted quickly to contain a market fallout. State funds intervened to support equities, and the People’s Bank of China set the yuan fixing at its weakest level since September 2023 to boost export competitiveness. Additionally, five-year interest rate swaps in China fell to their lowest levels since 2020, indicating potential for further monetary easing.

Trump Talks Tough on EU Too

Trump’s hardline approach extended beyond China. Speaking at a press conference, he rejected the European Union’s offer to eliminate tariffs on cars and industrial goods, accusing the bloc of ‘being very bad to us.’ He insisted that Europe would need to source its energy from the US, claiming the US could ‘knock off $350 billion in one week.’

The EU, meanwhile, backed away from a proposed 50% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey, opting instead for 25% duties on selected US goods in response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs.

Volatile Wall Street Adds to the Drama

Wall Street experienced wild swings on Monday as investors processed the rapidly evolving trade conflict. The S&P 500 briefly fell 4.7% before rebounding 3.4%, nearly erasing its losses in what could have been its biggest one-day jump in years—if it had held. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank by as much as 1,700 points early in the day but later climbed nearly 900 points before closing 349 points lower, down 0.9%. The Nasdaq ended up 0.1%.

The brief rally was fueled by a false rumour that Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs—rumours that the White House quickly labelled ‘fake news.’ The market's sharp reaction underscored how desperate investors are for any sign that tensions might ease.

Oil Markets in Focus: Goldman Sachs Revises Forecasts

Crude prices also reflected the uncertainty, with US crude briefly dipping below $60 per barrel for the first time since 2021. As of early Tuesday, Brent crude was trading at $64.72, while WTI hovered around $61.26.

Goldman Sachs, in a note dated April 7, lowered its average price forecasts for Brent and WTI through 2025 and 2026, citing mounting recession risks and the potential for higher-than-expected supply from OPEC+.

Under a base-case scenario where the US avoids a recession and tariffs are reduced significantly before the April 9 implementation date, Goldman sees Brent at $62 per barrel and WTI at $58 by December 2025. These figures fall further to $55 and $51, respectively, by the end of 2026. This outlook also assumes moderate output increases from eight OPEC+ countries, with incremental boosts of 130,000–140,000 barrels per day in June and July.

However, should the US slip into a typical recession and OPEC production aligns with the bank’s baseline assumptions, Brent could retreat to $58 by the end of this year and to $50 by December 2026.

In a more bearish scenario involving a global GDP slowdown and no change to OPEC+ output levels, Brent prices might fall to $54 by year-end and $45 by late 2026. The most extreme projection—based on a simultaneous economic downturn and a full reversal of OPEC+ production cuts—would see Brent plunge to below $40 per barrel by the end of 2026.

Goldman noted that oil prices could outperform forecasts significantly if there was a dramatic shift in tariff policy and a surprise in global demand recovery.

Cautious Optimism, But Warnings Persist

With both Washington and Beijing showing no signs of backing down, markets are likely to remain volatile in the days ahead. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming trade meetings and policy decisions, hoping for clarity in what has become one of the most unpredictable trading environments in recent years.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 9th April 2025.

Global Markets Rattled by Tariffs and Bond Sell-Off as Volatility Surges.

Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Markets around the globe were hit hard on Wednesday, as sweeping US tariffs took effect and fears of a global economic slowdown intensified. From bond markets to equities, investors were left scrambling amid heightened uncertainty and growing recession risks. Volatility levels surged as investors responded to rising yields, falling oil prices, and a weakening yuan. Government bond yields surged, treasuries were hit hard, equities tumbled, and oil hit fresh multi-year lows as investors scrambled to assess the impact of sweeping trade measures.

Tariff Uncertainty Sparks Global Sell-Off

Markets were on edge as the White House confirmed a 104% tax targeting Chinese imports, effective at midnight. While the US administration indicated openness to negotiations with over 70 nations, China has yet to engage. Instead, Beijing vowed to ‘fight to the end’ and warned it has ample tools to offset any external shocks.

In a bold move, China allowed the offshore yuan to weaken to a record low of 7.4153 per dollar, signalling its willingness to absorb external shocks. Goldman Sachs warned that China might retaliate by selling US assets, including Treasuries, potentially exacerbating the sell-off.

Bond Market Under Siege as Yields Surge

Investors dumped long-duration US government bonds in droves, driving yields to multi-year highs. The 30-year Treasury yield briefly soared above 5% the highest level since 1998, while the 10-year hit 4.51% before easing back to 4.42%. Meanwhile, the 2-year yield fell on haven demand and bets for future rate cuts, steepening the curve sharply. Bond yields move inversely to prices. Stock markets came under renewed pressure.

The curve between 2s and 10s spiked by 14 basis points to 55 bps. This aggressive repricing reflected deepening fears of inflation, slower growth, and rising uncertainty over the Fed's policy path. The sharp rise in long-dated yields caused a steepening in the yield curve across Europe, with bond prices falling as investors priced in higher inflation and slower global growth.

RBNZ Cuts Rates, Signals Further Easing

New Zealand’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%, marking the fifth consecutive easing. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cited mounting global trade risks and downside pressures on both growth and inflation.

‘The recently announced increases in global trade barriers weaken the outlook for economic activity,’ said the RBNZ. ‘These developments create downside risks... The Committee has scope to lower the OCR further as appropriate.’Markets now expect rates to fall below the 3% floor previously signalled by the central bank.

Global Repercussions: Stocks and Currencies Hit

In Europe, German bonds opened lower, and a steepening yield curve emerged as longer-term yields rose sharply. Futures tracking the Stoxx Europe 600 slumped 2.9%, mirroring weakness in US and Asian equity markets.

Japanese stocks fell sharply, with the Topix dropping 3.6%, while the yen settled near ¥145 per dollar. Analysts described earlier gains as a ‘head fake,’ noting that ‘fast money’ had resumed bearish bets amid worsening trade tensions.

Chinese equities managed to rebound, driven by strength in technology and chip stocks. The CSI 300 index swung from a 1.7% decline to close up 0.3%, led by SMIC (+6%) and Foxconn Industrial Internet.

Wall Street’s major indices plunged before partially trimming losses late in the session. The S&P 500 closed down 1.57%, the Nasdaq tumbled 2.15%, and the Dow slipped 0.84%. Earlier gains of over 4% were quickly reversed as investors grew wary of systemic risks.

This marked the fourth consecutive session with a trading range exceeding 5%, a rare occurrence seen only during periods of extreme stress like March 2020, October 1987, and the 2008 financial crisis.

The VIX volatility index jumped 10.6% to 52.01, reflecting the high level of investor anxiety.

Oil Crashes to Pandemic Lows, Gold Recovers
Oil markets extended their dramatic decline as traders braced for weaker global demand. Brent crude dropped 4.1% to $60.26—a four-year low—while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell to $56.30. Gold, meanwhile, briefly dipped but managed to rebound above $3040 per ounce.

USDIndex Dips, Currency Volatility Rises
The US Dollar Index (DXY) swung throughout the session, at 102.25—down from a session high of 103.441. Currency markets were jittery amid safe-haven flows and shifting interest rate expectations.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.