Weekly Market Review

[Attila]

Following the ECB's interest rate announcement, the EURUSD exhibited volatile price action, presenting potential profit opportunities on both the bullish and bearish sides. Initially, the pair saw a bullish surge, climbing from a low of 1.07907 to a peak of 1.08537, resulting in a movement of approximately $630 USD. However, EURUSD later transitioned into a bearish trend, dropping sharply to a low of 1.07657. This bearish move not only surpassed the initial low recorded during the news release but also offered a larger profit potential of $880 USD.

In the short term, the rate cut and dovish tone were likely to be negative for the Euro, potentially leading to weakness in EUR/USD. The medium-term outlook was more uncertain, as fiscal stimulus and the end of the ECB's rate-cutting cycle could have supported the Euro, but rising bond yields and slower growth projections may have limited gains. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's policy played a critical role in determining the future direction of EUR/USD. In summary, the ECB's decision was likely to weigh on the Euro in the short term, while the medium-term impact depended on fiscal developments in Europe, bond yield dynamics, and the Fed's policy trajectory.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

Geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts, trade disputes, or instability in key regions, often have a significant impact on financial markets, particularly commodities like oil and gold.

Oil: Geopolitical tensions can disrupt the supply of oil, especially if they involve major oil-producing countries or key transit routes. Such disruptions tend to cause oil prices to rise due to concerns over supply shortages. For example, tensions in the Middle East, home to a significant portion of global oil reserves, can lead to fears of supply cuts, driving up crude oil prices.

Gold: Gold is typically seen as a "safe haven" asset, meaning it tends to rise in value during times of geopolitical uncertainty. Investors flock to gold as a store of value when there is heightened risk in global markets. Therefore, during geopolitical crises, gold prices often increase as investors seek safety away from more volatile assets like equities or currencies.

In summary, geopolitical tensions tend to push oil prices higher due to supply concerns and boost gold prices as investors seek a stable investment in uncertain times.

 

[Attila]

Market Overview: Oil Price Decline Last Week​

Between March 3 and March 7, 2025, oil prices experienced a bearish trend, driven by a combination of increased supply and growing concerns over global demand:

1. OPEC+ Production Adjustment: On March 3, OPEC+ announced plans to raise oil production by 138,000 barrels per day, effective in April. This move, which reversed previous production cuts, contributed to a rise in global supply, putting downward pressure on oil prices.
2. U.S. Tariff Policy Impact: The Trump administration imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, including a 10% duty on Canadian energy products. Additionally, tariffs on Chinese imports were raised to 20%. These actions raised concerns over an escalating trade war, which could negatively affect global economic growth and reduce oil demand.

As a result of these factors, oil prices saw a sustained decline, reflecting the broader bearish sentiment in the market.


What Traders May Have Missed: A $5,350 Opportunity in Oil

Between the highest and lowest points of last week's oil price movement, there was a remarkable 535-tick swing—equating to a potential profit of $5,350. During this period, the price fluctuated within a range from $74.03 to $68.68, offering traders a substantial profit opportunity if they had capitalized on the market's volatility.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

Between March 4 and March 7, 2025, the British Pound (GBP) appreciated against the US Dollar (USD), rising from approximately 1.26939 to a peak of 1.29447. This appreciation coincided with the implementation of new US tariffs, which increased duties on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China. These protectionist measures heightened concerns over US economic growth, leading to a weaker USD. Additionally, positive economic developments in Europe, including Germany's announcement of a €500 billion infrastructure fund and relaxed debt rules, helped boost market sentiment towards European assets, indirectly benefiting the GBP. The US dollar's decline amid fears of economic contraction from the tariffs further fueled the pound's rise. Meanwhile, the GBP also benefited from favorable economic data and improved market confidence in the UK's financial outlook. From the time the tariffs took effect on March 4, when GBP/USD opened at 1.26939, the pair climbed to a weekly high of 1.29447, presenting a potential gain of $2,508 per standard lot. The pound’s strength during this period was primarily driven by USD weakness, as investors reacted to the economic risks associated with increased trade barriers.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

During a high-impact news release on a 5-minute candlestick, potential profit or loss could have occurred based on market entry timing. Last week 6th March, the European Central Bank's rate decision triggered significant volatility, with EUR/USD serving as a key example. In such conditions, pending orders can be a valuable tool, depending on individual trading strategies.

 

[Attila]

12.03.2025​

Today's High-Impact News Releases:

• US Inflation Figures
• Canadian Interest Rate Decision

U.S. Inflation​

On February 12, 2025, data revealed that U.S. inflation pressures persisted in January, with both headline and core consumer prices rising more than expected. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.5% month-over-month, the highest since August 2023, driven by a 0.4% rise in shelter costs and a 1.1% jump in energy prices, particularly gasoline. Annual inflation edged up to 3%, above forecasts of 2.9%, as energy costs rose for the first time in six months. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, also accelerated, rising 0.4% monthly and 3.3% annually, surpassing expectations. Key drivers included transportation services, shelter, and motor vehicle insurance, while food prices, especially eggs, saw significant increases due to supply shortages. These figures indicate stalled progress in curbing inflation, with shelter costs alone accounting for nearly 30% of the monthly increase.

Today, the latest U.S. CPI data will be released at 12:30 PM GMT, and markets are bracing for high volatility as investors assess whether inflationary pressures are easing or persisting.
The chart below illustrates how EUR/USD reacted following the release.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

Bank of Canada Interest Rate​

On January 29, 2025, the Bank of Canada (BoC) cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3%, in line with market expectations. This move brought total rate cuts to 200 basis points since the easing cycle began in June 2024. At the time, the central bank also announced the conclusion of quantitative tightening and outlined plans to restart asset purchases in early March to support liquidity and economic activity.

The BoC noted that CPI inflation had recently aligned with its 2% target and was expected to remain near this level over the following two years as underlying price pressures eased. However, the Governing Council expressed concerns that U.S. tariffs could hinder Canada’s economic recovery by reducing demand for domestic goods and services.

Despite these risks, the BoC projected GDP growth to improve, forecasting a 1.8% expansion over the next two years, following an estimated 1.3% growth in 2024, as detailed in its latest Monetary Policy Report.

The Bank of Canada is set to announce its next interest rate decision today at 1:45 PM GMT.
The chart below illustrates how EURCAD reacted following the Bank of Canada's interest rate announcement.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

13.03.2025​

On Thursday, high-impact news releases from the U.S. will include:

• Core PPI m/m (Producer Price Index month-over-month),
• PPI m/m, and
• Unemployment Claims.

​

U.S. Core PPI, PPI and Unemployment Claims​

The data from February 13th, 2025, presented a mixed outlook for the US economy and the USD, as rising Producer Price Index (PPI) and Core PPI figures pointed to ongoing inflationary pressures, particularly in food and energy, which could negatively affect businesses and consumers. Conversely, a tight labor market with low unemployment claims signaled economic resilience, supporting consumer spending and a strong economy. The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rates was bullish for the USD in the short term, although persistent inflation posed longer-term challenges. Throughout this timeframe, the USD strengthened against Gold, with a daily price fluctuation of $5,625 observed.

The next U.S. PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m, and Unemployment Claims data will be released on March 13th at 12:30 PM GMT.


The chart illustrates the XAUUSD's reaction to the Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m, and Unemployment Claims data released on February 13th, 2025.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

14.03.2025

On Friday, 14th March 2025, high-impact news releases from the UK and US will feature:

• GDP m/m
• Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
• Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations

UK Economy Grows 0.1% in Q4, 1.4% Annually, with Strong December​

The British economy showed modest growth in late 2024, with a 0.1% quarterly expansion in Q4, avoiding a forecasted contraction, according to a release on February 13, 2025. This was driven by a 0.2% rise in services and a 0.5% increase in construction, though production fell for the fifth consecutive quarter, led by declines in manufacturing and mining. Exports dropped 2.5%, while imports rose 2.1%, and fixed capital formation fell 0.9%, offset by higher government spending and inventory changes. Year-on-year, GDP grew 1.4% in Q4, the fastest since Q4 2022, fueled by household consumption and government spending, though business investment and net trade were drags. In December 2024, the economy expanded 1.5% year-on-year, the strongest performance since October 2022, and grew 0.4% month-on-month, the highest in nine months, supported by gains in services and production, particularly in pharmaceuticals and machinery. However, construction and some sectors like utilities saw declines. For 2024 as a whole, the economy expanded 0.9%, up from 0.4% in 2023, demonstrating resilience despite mixed sectoral performance.

• The GBPUSD remained bullish throughout the day because UK economic resilience reduced the likelihood of BoE rate cuts, while softening U.S. inflation increased expectations of Fed policy easing. This monetary policy divergence—combined with Eurozone weakness—shifted market sentiment toward buying GBP and selling USD, sustaining GBP strength until the market close.

The next GDP release is scheduled for March 14th at 7:00 AM GMT.

The chart shows the reaction of GBPUSD on February 13th, 2025.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

US - Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment​

The University of Michigan revised US consumer sentiment sharply lower to 64.7 in February 2025 from an initial 67.8, marking the weakest level since November 2023. Both current economic conditions (65.7 from 68.7) and future expectations (64 from 67.3) declined, with sentiment falling across all demographic groups. A 19% drop in durable goods buying conditions, driven by concerns over tariff-related price hikes, led the decline. Expectations for personal finances and the short-term outlook fell nearly 10%, while the long-term outlook dropped about 6%. Inflation expectations for the next year surged to 4.3%, the highest since November 2023, while the five-year outlook rose to 3.5%, the biggest monthly increase since May 2021.

The next Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment release is scheduled for March 14th at 2:00 PM GMT.

US - Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations​

In February, the University of Michigan consumer survey indicated that year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.3%, a 1 percentage point increase from January and the highest since November 2023. Concerns over rising prices, fueled by President Trump's tariff policies, led to a sharp decline in consumer sentiment, with the headline index falling to 67.8. Despite the postponement of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, fears of inflationary pressure remained, particularly affecting lower-income households. Longer-term inflation expectations edged up slightly to 3.3%.

• The USD strengthened due to rising inflation expectations and resilient wage growth despite a weakening labor market. Higher inflation forecasts increase the likelihood of future Federal Reserve rate hikes or maintaining elevated interest rates, making USD-denominated assets more attractive. Additionally, the increase in average hourly earnings supports consumer spending, reinforcing economic resilience despite a higher unemployment rate and declining consumer sentiment.

The next release of the Preliminary University of Michigan Inflation Expectations is set for March 14th at 2:00 PM GMT.

The chart shows the EURUSD's performance on February 7, 2025.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

17.03.2025​

Next Monday’s High Impact news release will include news from China and the US:

• Unemployment Rate
• Retail Sales YoY
• Industrial Production YoY
• NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
• Retail Sales YoY
• Retail Sales MoM

CNH - Unemployment Rate, Retail Sales YoY &

Industrial Production YoY​

Previous Announcement Release Outcome and impact on CNH:

The release on 17th January showed stronger-than-expected Chinese industrial production (+6.2% YoY) and retail sales (+3.7% YoY), which bolstered the CNH and drove the USDCNH lower. However, a rise in China’s unemployment rate (5.1%) weakened confidence, leading to a USDCNH rebound as the CNH lost momentum. Later, following weak U.S. Building Permits data (-0.6%), the USD softened, allowing the CNH to regain strength, which pushed the USDCNH down again.

Profit Case Study:

Below is a study of a potential profit aligned with the chart analysis provided with this report.
To simplify the analysis, I’m presenting this study based on a trading account with a 1:300 Leverage, assuming that the Trade Size is 1 standard lot, which means that the Margin Requirement would be $333.33

If you entered a buy/sell position on USDCNH at 7.33655 (A) and closed at the highest point reached, 7.35781 (B), the potential profit or loss could have been around $237 USD.

If you entered a sell/buy position on USDCNH at 7.35781 (B) following the U.S. building permits release and closed at the lowest point of 7.33289 (C), the potential profit or loss would have been approximately $338.69.

• China's next high-impact news release is scheduled for Monday at 2:00 AM GMT.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

USD - Retail Sales MoM & Retail Sales YoY​

Previous Announcement Release Outcome and impact on USD:

The US Retail Sales data for January 2025 showed a 0.9% month-over-month contraction, much worse than the expected 0.1% decline, suggesting weakened consumer spending due to factors like severe weather and wildfires. This negative result would likely have weighed on the USD, as it indicates reduced economic momentum. However, the year-over-year growth of 4.2% provided some support, reflecting ongoing retail activity compared to last year. Despite the annual increase, the weaker monthly performance likely dominated market sentiment, leading to concerns about economic slowdowns and a bearish outlook for the USD in the short term.


Profit Case Study:

Below is a study of a potential profit aligned with the chart analysis provided with this report.
To simplify the analysis, I’m presenting this study based on a trading account with a 1:300 Leverage, assuming that the Trade Size is 1 standard lot, which means that the Margin Requirement would be $349.41

Opening a Buy/Sell position on EURUSD at 1.04824 (A) and closing at 1.05142 (B) could have yielded a potential profit or loss of around $318 USD for the day.

• The U.S. is set to release its Retail Sales data on Monday at 12:30 PM GMT.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

USD - Empire State Manufacturing Index​

Previous Announcement Release Outcome and impact on USD:

The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index surged by 18.3 points to +5.7 in February 2025, significantly exceeding expectations of -1 and indicating a slight rebound in business activity across New York State. New orders and shipments experienced moderate growth, while employment levels declined. Supply chain challenges persisted, with delivery times lengthening slightly and supply availability decreasing marginally. Input costs rose at their fastest pace in nearly two years, leading to higher selling prices. Despite the improvement in current conditions, business optimism for the future dropped significantly, although firms expected conditions to improve over the next six months. The data presented a mixed outlook for the US dollar, with short-term resilience offset by concerns over inflation and weakening confidence.


Below is a study of a potential profit aligned with the chart analysis provided with this report.
To simplify the analysis, I’m presenting this study based on a trading account with a 1:300 Leverage, assuming that the Trade Size is 1 standard lot, which means that the Margin Requirement would be $419.79


Entering a Buy/Sell position on GBPUSD at 1.25938 (A) and closing at 1.26209 (B) could have yielded a potential profit or loss of approximately $271 USD by the end of the day.

• The U.S. will publish its Empire State Manufacturing Index on Monday at 12:30 PM GMT.
  
  
  
  

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

18.03.2025​

Next Tuesday’s High Impact news release will include news from Europe, US and Canada:

• Zew Economic Calendar (EUR)
• Housing Starts MoM (USD)
• Building Permits MoM (USD)
• Core Inflation Rate MoM (CAD)
• Core Inflation rate YoY (CAD)
• Inflation Rate MoM (CAD)
• Inflation Rate MoM (CAD)
• Industrial Production (USD)

EUR - ZEW Economic Sentiment Index​

Previous Announcement Release Outcome and impact on EUR:

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment for 18th February 2025 initially supported the EUR due to rising optimism about Germany’s economic outlook. However, the EURUSD turned bearish as stronger-than-expected US data, like the Empire State Manufacturing Index, and rising expectations of tighter Fed policy bolstered the USD. Despite the positive ZEW release, investor caution over Eurozone challenges, including low inflation and sluggish growth, weighed on the EUR. Additionally, Canada’s inflation data, though modest, shifted focus to global inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations of tighter US monetary policy and further supporting the USD, which pushed the EURUSD lower.


Profit Case Study:

Below is a study of a potential profit aligned with the chart analysis provided with this report.

To simplify the analysis, I’m presenting this study based on a trading account with a 1:300 Leverage, assuming that the Trade Size is 1 standard lot, which means that the Margin Requirement would be $348.80


If you entered a buy/sell position on EURUSD at 1.04641 (A) and closed at point (B) 1.04695, the potential profit or loss could have been around $54 USD.


If you entered a sell/buy position on EURUSD at 1.04695 (B) and closed at the lowest point of 1.04351 (C), the potential profit or loss would have been approximately $344.

• The next high-impact news release for the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index is set for Tuesday at 10:00 AM GMT.
  
  
  
  
  
  Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

USD – Housing Starts and Building Permits​

Previous Announcement Release Outcome and impact on USD:

On 19th February 2025, U.S. housing data revealed a slowdown, with housing starts falling by 9.8% in January, signaling a weaker housing market, while building permits showed little momentum. This downturn was attributed to factors like higher mortgage rates, concerns over unsold homes, and potential cost increases due to tariffs. The Federal Reserve also reviewed its monetary policy framework, focusing on its 2% inflation target and the need for a resilient policy in uncertain economic conditions. The Fed's discussions hinted at no immediate rate hikes, contributing to a cautious outlook. Overall, these factors suggested slower economic growth, leading to a weaker USD, as the market anticipated a less aggressive stance from the Fed and muted activity in the housing sector.

Profit Case Study:
Below is a study of a potential profit aligned with the chart analysis provided with this report.

This study assumes a trading account with 1:300 leverage and a trade size of 1 standard lot for USDJPY, resulting in a margin requirement of $333.33.

If you entered a buy/sell position on USDJPY at 151.830 (A) and closed at point (B) 151.830, the potential profit or loss could have been around $384.64.

• The next high-impact news release for the Building Permits and Housing Starts is set for Tuesday at 12:30 PM GMT.
  
  
  
  

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

CAD - Canada's Inflation Rate ​

Previous Announcement Release Outcome and impact on CAD:

In January 2025, Canada's annual inflation rate rose to 1.9%, up from 1.8% in December, mainly due to higher energy prices, including gasoline and natural gas. The temporary GST/HST tax break continued to reduce prices for certain goods, like food from restaurants and alcoholic beverages. However, core inflation measures also increased, leading to reduced expectations for an interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada. As a result, markets saw a 63% chance that the Bank would pause rate cuts in March, which boosted confidence in the Canadian dollar.

Profit Case Study:

Below is a study of a potential profit aligned with the chart analysis provided with this report.

This study assumes a trading account with 1:300 leverage and a trade size of 1 standard lot for CADCHF, resulting in a margin requirement of $234.53.

If you entered a buy/sell position on CADCHF at 0.63464 (A) and closed at point (B) 0.63722, the potential profit or loss could have been around $286.18.

• The next high-impact news release for Canada's Inflation Rate will be on Tuesday at 12:30 PM GMT.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

USD – Industrial Production MoM​

Previous Announcement Release Outcome and impact on USD:

In January, U.S. industrial production grew by 0.5% from the previous month, according to the Federal Reserve's report. Manufacturing output saw a slight decline of 0.1% month-over-month but increased by 1.0% annually. Mining output fell by 1.2% month-to-month, though it rose 3.4% year-over-year. The utilities index experienced a significant gain, climbing 7.2% from the prior month and 6.9% from the previous year. Capacity utilization in the industrial sector reached 77.8%, up by 0.3 percentage points from December, but still 1.8 percentage points below the long-term average. Year-over-year, this figure rose by 1.2 percentage points.


This growth in industrial production likely provided positive momentum for the U.S. dollar (USD). Increased production signals a strengthening economy, which can lead to higher interest rate expectations and greater demand for the USD, particularly in global markets where the U.S. currency plays a central role in trade and investment.


Profit Case Study:

Below is a study of a potential profit aligned with the chart analysis provided with this report.

This study assumes a trading account with 1:300 leverage and a trade size of 1 standard lot for GBPUSD, resulting in a margin requirement of $420.54.

If you entered a buy/sell position on GBPUSD at 1.26162 (A) and closed at point (C) 1.25837, the potential profit or loss could have been around $325.

If you entered a buy/sell from point (B) 1.26302 and closed at point (C) 1.25837 the potential profit or loss could have been $465 USD.

The next high-impact news release for Industrial Production MoM release is set for Tuesday at 1:15 PM GMT.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

​

Key Economic Events: March 19th – 31st​

---

Wednesday, March 19th

• BOJ Policy Rate: Release time unknown
• Federal Funds Rate: 6:00 PM GMT
• GDP q/q: 9:45 PM GMT

---

Thursday, March 20th

• Employment Change & Unemployment Rate: 12:30 AM GMT
• Claimant Count Change: 7:00 AM GMT
• SNB Policy Rate: 8:30 AM GMT
• Official Bank Rate: 12:00 PM GMT
• Unemployment Claims: 12:30 PM GMT

---

Friday, March 21st

• Core Retail Sales m/m & Retail Sales m/m: 12:30 PM GMT

---

Monday, March 24th

• French PMI: 8:15 AM GMT
• German PMI: 8:30 AM GMT
• UK PMI: 9:30 AM GMT
• US PMI: 1:45 PM GMT

---

Wednesday, March 26th

• Australia CPI YoY: 12:30 AM GMT
• UK CPI YoY: 7:00 AM GMT

---

• Thursday, March 27th

• Final GDP q/q & Unemployment Claims: 12:30 PM GMT

---

Friday, March 28th

• Retail Sales m/m: 7:00 AM GMT
• GDP MoM: 12:30 PM GMT
• Core PCE Price Index MoM: 12:30 PM GMT

---

Monday, March 31st

• Manufacturing PMI: 2:30 AM GMT
• German Prelim CPI m/m: 7:30 AM GMT

​

 

[Attila]

19.03.2025​

• Wednesday’s High Impact news release will include news from Japan, US and New Zealand:

JPY – BOJ Policy Rate​

Previous Announcement Release Outcome and impact on JPY:

Initially, the USDJPY pair saw a bullish move, with the USD strengthening against the yen. However, after the market adjusted to the BOJ's decision, the yen strengthened, causing the USDJPY pair to turn bearish, meaning the USD weakened against the JPY. This correction highlights the full reaction of the USDJPY after the rate hike, where the USD temporarily gained strength, but later reversed to a weaker position as the market digested the BOJ's policy change.

Later on, the USDJPY transitioned into a steady bullish movement, influenced by high-impact news releases, including PMI data from the Eurozone, the UK, and the US. These releases contributed to renewed USD strength, leading the pair to climb again.

Profit Case Study:

Below is a study of a potential profit aligned with the chart analysis provided with this report.

To simplify the analysis, I’m presenting this study based on a trading account with a 1:300 Leverage, assuming that the Trade Size is 1 standard lot, which means that the Margin Requirement would be $333.3


If you entered a buy/sell position on USDJPY at 156.412 (A) and closed at the lowest point reached, 154.841 (B), the potential profit or loss could have been around $1004.41 USD.


The next high-impact news release for the Bank of Japan's policy rate is scheduled for Wednesday, according to the Japanese time zone.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

USD – Federal Funds rate​

Previous Announcement Release Outcome and impact on USD:

In January 2025, the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates at 4.25% to 4.5%, despite inflationary pressures and a robust job market, significantly influenced the USD. By holding rates steady, the Fed signaled a cautious approach to inflation control, which stabilized the currency. The absence of anticipated rate cuts supported the USD, as higher rates typically attract investors seeking better returns. This decision reflected a complex economic environment marked by inflation concerns, trade tariffs, and fiscal policy uncertainties. With the market already pricing in rate stabilization, the USD experienced reduced volatility. While the Fed's stance appeared somewhat dovish compared to aggressive cuts, its commitment to balancing inflation and employment conditions helped maintain the USD's strength in the short term, as the market viewed the move as a measured response to economic risks.

The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates at 4.25% to 4.5% in January 2025, amid inflation and strong employment, helped stabilize the USD by signaling no immediate rate cuts. This cautious approach balanced inflation control with economic growth. EURUSD initially showed a bearish trend, indicating a stronger USD, but later reversed as the Euro regained strength. Eventually, EURUSD resumed a steady bearish movement, reflecting the USD’s continued strength. Despite short-term fluctuations, the Fed's stance ultimately supported the USD over the longer term.

Profit Case Study:

Below is a study of a potential profit aligned with the chart analysis provided with this report.

This study assumes a trading account with 1:300 leverage and a trade size of 1 standard lot for EURUSD.

If you entered a buy/sell position on EURUSD at 1.04190 (A) and closed at the lowest point reached, 1.03883 (B), the potential profit or loss could have been around $307 USD with a margin requirement of $347.3 USD.

If you entered a buy/sell position on EURUSD at 1.03883 (B) and closed at the highest point reached of the day, 1.04289 (C), the potential profit or loss could have been around $406 USD with a margin requirement of $346.28 USD.


The next Federal Funds Rate release is scheduled for Wednesday at 6:00 PM GMT.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

NZD – GDP q/q
​

Previous Announcement Release Outcome and impact on NZD

The New Zealand economy contracted in the September 2024 quarter, with GDP falling by 1.0% and a decline in real gross national disposable income (RGNDI) by 0.8%. A weaker economic output and reduced national income affected New Zealand’s purchasing power, as reflected in a drop in RGNDI per capita by 1.0%. The decrease in RGNDI was partially offset by an improvement in the terms of trade, with export prices rising and import prices falling. This suggested a stronger ability to purchase goods and services despite the economic downturn. The negative economic trends led to a less favorable outlook for the NZD.


The NZDUSD initially experienced a bearish movement, lasting just over two hours, as a result of the negative economic data from New Zealand, which typically leads to a strengthening of the USD. However, the pair later transitioned into a steady bullish climb, reflecting a gain in NZD value, which was influenced by high-impact news from Japan's Policy Rate, the UK's Official Bank Rate, and the US's Final GDP q/q and Unemployment Claims.

Profit Case Study:

Below is a study of a potential profit aligned with the chart analysis provided with this report.

This study assumes a trading account with 1:300 leverage and a trade size of 1 standard lot for NZDUSD..

If you entered a buy/sell position on NZDUSD at 0.56547 (A) and closed at the lowest point reached, 0.56081 (B), the potential profit or loss could have been around $466.06 with a margin requirement of $188.49.

If you entered a buy/sell at lowest point (B) 0.56081 and closed at the highest point of that day (C) 0.56623 the potential profit or loss could have been $542 USD with a margin requirement of $186.94 USD.

The next GDP QoQ release is scheduled for Wednesday at 9:45 PM GMT.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

01.04.2025​

Tuesday’s High Impact news release will include news from Australia, and US:

• Cash Rate (AUD)
• ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)
• JOLTS Job Openings (USD)

AUD – Cash Rate​

Previous Announcement Release Outcome and impact on AUD:


The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its cash rate to 4.10%, citing easing inflation and subdued private demand. While rate cuts typically weaken AUD, the RBA’s cautious tone and concerns over labor market tightness suggested a slower easing cycle, initially boosting the currency. As a result, XAUAUD declined as markets reacted to the hawkish elements of the statement. However, shifting sentiment and external factors later stabilized the pair before driving a bullish reversal, signaling renewed XAU strength against AUD. The RBA reaffirmed its data-dependent approach, leaving future policy direction uncertain.


Profit Case Study:


Below is a study of a potential profit aligned with the chart analysis provided with this report.

To simplify the analysis, I’m presenting this study based on a trading account with a 1:300 Leverage, assuming that the Trade Size is 1 standard lot, which means that the Margin Requirement would be $975.

If you entered a buy/sell position on XAUAUD at 4592.58 (A) and closed at the lowest point reached, 4569.30 (B), the potential profit or loss could have been around $1,482.42 USD.


If you entered a buy/sell position on XAUAUD at 4569.30 (B) and closed at the highest point reached, 4625.27 (C), the potential profit or loss could have been around $3,545.30 USD with a margin of $964.77 USD.

The upcoming Cash Rate will be released on Tuesday at 4:30 AM GMT

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI​

Previous Announcement Release Outcome and impact on USD:


The U.S. manufacturing sector expanded slightly for the second consecutive month, with the PMI® declining to 50.3%. Production grew, but new orders and employment contracted, reflecting cautious demand. Supplier deliveries slowed due to tariff-related disruptions and potential port strikes, while input prices saw the sharpest rise in a year, driven by tariffs on metals, plastics, and food commodities. Exports and imports increased, but backlogs remained in contraction for the 29th straight month. While industries such as Petroleum, Food & Beverage, and Chemicals expanded, Machinery and Electronics faced contraction. Respondents cited tariff uncertainty as a major challenge, leading to order delays and price volatility. Overall, the sector showed a fragile recovery amid demand softness and inflationary pressures, influencing GBPUSD dynamics.


Profit Case Study:


Below is a study of a potential profit aligned with the chart analysis provided with this report.


This study assumes a trading account with 1:300 leverage and a trade size of 1 standard lot for GBPUSD.


If you entered a buy/sell position on GBPUSD at 126837 (A) and closed at the highest point reached, 1.27245 (B), the potential profit or loss could have been around $408 USD with a margin requirement of $422.79 USD.


The next ISM Manufacturing PMI release will be released on Tuesday at 2:00 PM GMT

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

USD – JOLTS Job Openings
​

Previous Announcement Release Outcome and impact on USD:


Job openings rose in January, signaling temporary labor market stability, with postings increasing to 7.74 million—up 232,000 from December and slightly exceeding forecasts. Gains were led by retail (+143,000) and finance (+122,000), while professional services and leisure sectors declined. Worker confidence improved as quits climbed to 3.27 million, though hires and layoffs remained steady. Analysts cautioned that the stability might be short-lived, anticipating federal job cuts and rising layoffs in February. The report contrasted with other softening indicators, including weaker payroll growth and low employee confidence surveys. The Federal Reserve monitored the data closely ahead of its rate decision, with expectations of holding rates steady.


Profit Case Study:

Below is a study of a potential profit aligned with the chart analysis provided with this report.

This study assumes a trading account with 1:300 leverage and a trade size of 1 standard lot for AUDUSD.


If you entered a buy/sell position on AUDUSD at 0.62964 (A) and closed at the lowest point reached, 0.62659 (B), the potential profit or loss could have been around $305 with a margin requirement of $209.88 USD.

If you entered a buy/sell at lowest point 0.62659 (B) and closed at the highest point of that day 0.63117 (C) the potential profit or loss could have been $458 USD with a margin requirement of $208.86 USD.

The next JOLTS Job Openings will be released on Tuesday at 2:00 PM GMT

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.