HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 5th December 2023.

Market Recap: Fears of overbought condition prevail!

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The markets giveth and the market taketh away. Red proliferated the screens as profit taking unwound some of Friday's aggressive rallies. There were no real catalysts to the move, just fears that markets were overbought and rate cut bets too optimistic.

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

*RBA held the cash rate steady at 4.35% at the final meeting of the year. The board, flagged, however, that progress in bringing inflation back to target was slower than anticipated. They noted uncertainty over the global outlook due to the Chinese economy and overseas conflicts.
*Aussie: Markets are still pricing in some risk of further tightening from the RBA, and the inflation numbers for the last quarter of the year will likely be decisive for the February 6 meeting.
*China: Services PMI expanded at a quicker pace in November, which was the highest in three months, as demand strengthened in Asia's largest economy.

Market Trends

*Treasury yields closed just off session highs.
*Asia stock markets sold off, following on from a weaker close on Wall Street. China bourses underperformed, despite a stronger Services PMI.
*Stocks: Wall Street was underwater from the get-go and closed with modest declines. The US100 slumped -0.84% on weakness in big tech, including Meta on news CEO Zuckerberg was selling shares. Microsoft, Alphabet, and Nvidia also declined. Alaska Air dropped after announcing its acquisition of Hawaiian Air. US500 was off -0.54% and the US30 was down -0.11%.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex was one of the few gainers on the day, rebounding to 103.642 (intraday peak of 103.852) following Friday's drop to 103.268.
*EURUSD declined to 1.08, indicating apotential retest of 1.0760, as the buck is firmer versus all its G10 peers as rate cut speculation is keeping a lid on EUR and GBP.
*USDJPY steady above 146.50.
*Gold has corrected somewhat as the US Dollar found a footing and Treasury yields lifted. It is currently steady at $2030 – $2040 area.
*Oil remained under pressure as USOIL is currently trading below $74 as markets remain distinctly unimpressed by the voluntary output cuts announced by OPEC+. With growth data suggesting subdued demand that is leaving fears of a sizeable supply overhang through 2024 on the table.
*Bitcoin extended higher and breached $42,337 for the first time since early 2022 (roughly 153% higher this year).
*Key Mover: Copper (-0.95%), with next Support at 3.75.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 6th December 2023.

Market Recap: The wait is on for Friday's jobs report!

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

*Treasury yields extended lower after the larger than expected decline in job openings. The data added to beliefs that the labor market is cooling and that the FOMC is done hiking, with the next move a cut in the coming months.
*Fed funds futures are reflecting about a 65% bet for a 25 bp March cut, with May fully priced in and then some.
*German manufacturing orders plunged. Orders corrected -4.6% in the three months to October, which is flagging recession risks and ongoing weakness even going into 2024.

Market Trends

*Asian stock markets rallied, with Japanese markets leading the way. Futures are also higher across Europe and the US as markets buy in to hopes that major central banks have reached peak rates and will start to cut interest rates next year.
*GER40 is at all-time highs supported by slowing inflation and the prospect of lower interest rates next year boosting the country's biggest stocks. It gained 8.8 % over the past month during a stock market rally on both sides of the Atlantic underpinned by growing hopes that major central banks have finished raising rates.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex is to the upside for a 5th day, retesting the 104 level, as it found relative firmness as the markets priced in a more aggressive easing stance from the ECB than the Fed.
*EURUSD below 1.08, extending its 1-week dip, post a sharp correction in German manufacturing orders that added to concerns that growth is faltering. This is coupled with weaker than expected inflation data for November that will add to pressure on the ECB ahead of next week's council meeting.
*Gold & Oil: The strength in the US Dollar weighed on commodities with USOIL dropping -0.88% to $72.10 and Gold falling -0.48% lower to $2009.97. Profit taking has knocked bullion from the record high of $2072.22 on December 1.
*Bitcoin hit 2022 highs at 44429. Currently it is traded at 43395 in an overbought condition, indicating a near term consolidation.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 7th December 2023.

Oil Hits Lowest Levels Since June 2023, Moody Downward China.

Crude Oil – Oil Declines for a Seventh Consecutive Week

The price of Crude Oil has declined to its lowest level since June 2023, marking an almost six-month low. The price of Oil has now declined for a seventh consecutive week. Economists note the decline is also improving the prospects of the stock market. Stocks are taking advantage of the lower oil prices which may trigger lower inflation and a softer monetary policy. This week alone the price has declined by 6.5%, but what is driving the bearish trend?

The main two reasons the market is witnessing a lack of demand in the oil market is China's latest poor economic data and the latest OPEC meeting. China's manufacturing and services PMI read significantly lower than expectations and this week Japan also announced weaker data. China is the largest importer of Oil while Japan is the fourth largest. Therefore, poor economic data in these regions are likely to trigger downward pressure for Crude Oil.

To make matters worse for the Oil market, Moody, the credit rating industry, lowered the economic outlook for China from "stable" to "negative". Since the downgrade, economists have advised the Chinese economy is not likely to witness a recession, but more likely stagnation. OPEC, on the other hand, were unable to come to an agreement on the production levels. Again, this had a negative effect on Crude Oil prices. Lastly, yesterday's report from the American Petroleum Institute showed inventories rose by 9.594M barrels instead of a decline of 2.267M barrels. The inventories show higher than expected supply.

In terms of technical analysis, the price of Oil is trading within a downward trend and is currently hovering within a retracement. The retracement is currently measuring 1% in line with previous pullbacks and is currently showing no major upward momentum. Therefore, most indicators continue to signal a downward trend. If the price breaks below $69.69 and $69.59, sell signals will again potentially become active.

USA100 – Only 20% of Stocks Held onto Gains!

The USA100 fell by 0.57% during yesterday's session and was the weakest of the top 3 most popular US indices. When looking at the NASADAQ's top ten most influential stocks, only 1 stock stayed in the "green", this was Tesla which only slightly rose by 0.27%. Out of the top 20 most influential stocks, only 20% retained their value. The stock which saw the largest decline was NVIDIA which dropped 2.28%.

However, fundamental factors continue to point towards a positive outlook for the US tech sector. This morning the US Dollar Index is declining, 52% of market participants believe the Fed will cut rates in March 2024 and most of the components witnessed positive earnings data. The only slight concern for investors is bond yields which have risen over the past 24 hours. However, bond yields continue to remain significantly lower than in the previous months, which is positive for the stock market.

Technical analysts have pointed out that the index is not within a short-term downward trend and each time the USA100 declines, buyers re-enter the following day to take advantage of the lower price. Investors will again be monitoring if the index rebounds today. The stronger performer in the pre-market hours is Alphabet which has risen 0.82%. Alphabet stocks make up almost 6% of the overall index. Investors are currently balancing the negative effect of a weaker Chinese economy and the positive effect of a rate cut as early as March 2024. If the price increases above $15,873, the USA100 will again experience buy signals. Buy signals can be seen from the regression channel and crossovers.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 8th December 2023.

Central Banks' Divergent Paths: ECB Signals Caution, BoE Stays the Course

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

As the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) gear up for their upcoming meetings, market participants eagerly await signals that will shape the economic landscape in 2024. While both banks are expected to maintain interest rates, their perspectives on future policy directions diverge.

This article explores the nuanced positions of the ECB and BoE, shedding light on their contrasting views on inflation, rate hikes, and the path forward.

ECB's Shifting Stance:

The ECB meeting is poised to capture attention not for an anticipated rate adjustment but for the nuanced signals regarding the outlook for 2024. In the aftermath of November's meeting, where a tightening bias persisted, recent developments, notably the unexpected drop in inflation, have prompted a shift in tone.

Market Trends

Isabel Schnabel's Reuters Interview:

Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel's recent Reuters interview marked a departure from previous sentiments. While she emphasized the need for caution, Schnabel hinted that the ECB is prepared to confirm that interest rates have peaked. Contrary to market optimism anticipating rate cuts as early as March, Schnabel underscored the central bank's patience, emphasizing the necessity of further progress in underlying inflation.

Monetary Policy Transmission Confidence:

Despite concerns about a potential credit crunch, Schnabel expressed confidence in the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission. While acknowledging signs of labor market softening, she dismissed fears of a severe and prolonged recession, aligning with the ECB's cautious stance. The central bank seems poised to confirm the unlikelihood of further rate hikes but remains hesitant to entertain the idea of rate cuts in the near term.

Financial Markets Performance:

ECB's Path to Rate Cuts:
The timing of potential rate cuts in 2024 remains a pivotal question. Market expectations for an easing bias in March, paving the way for a second-quarter cut, appear optimistic. ECB President Lagarde, expected to be more vague on the topic, may find it challenging to temper easing expectations.

PEPP Reinvestment Discussion:
The discussion around the future of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) reinvestments adds complexity. While some suggest an early end to re-investments as a prerequisite for rate cuts, details may not emerge until early 2024. Lagarde's confirmation of a gradual reduction could set the stage for rate cuts in the second quarter.

EURUSD has been under pressure since the lower than anticipated inflation report last week and is currently struggling to hold the 1.08 mark. The Fed may be leading the way on rate cuts next year, but markets expect that the ECB won't be far behind. The US economy may be better equipped to deal with the marked tightening of financing conditions that is increasingly hitting the real economy.

BoE's Steady Outlook:
In contrast, the BoE's upcoming announcement may lack the excitement of policy shifts. With no updated forecasts and data aligning with November's assumptions, the focus turns to the hawks within the bank. Despite concerns voiced by some, including BoE's Greene, about the risks of doing too little, Governor Bailey maintains a steadfast position against early rate cuts.

Bailey's Commitment to Inflation Target:
Bailey's emphasis on completing the journey to the 2% inflation target and the potential sluggishness of that process reinforces the BoE's commitment to a "higher for longer" approach. Deputy Governor Ramsden underscores the need for sustained restrictive policy to combat inflation effectively, signaling a likelihood of the BoE remaining on hold through the first half of 2024.

As the ECB signals caution and the BoE maintains a steady course, the central banks' divergent paths reveal nuanced approaches to economic challenges.

Investors will closely monitor the upcoming meetings for insights into future policies, with the timing of potential rate cuts and the fate of PEPP reinvestments hanging in the balance. The evolving economic landscape will undoubtedly shape the trajectory of monetary policies in the months to come.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 14th December 2023.

Fed Expect Interest Rates to Fall to 4.60% in 2024, Buyers Pounce!

*Fed Expects Interest Rates to Fall to 4.60% in 2024, Buyers Pounce!
*The Federal Reserve gives its first clear signal that rates will be cut in 2024!
*Analysts expect the Federal Fund Rate to decline to 4.50%.
*The USA100 is close to breaking its all-time highs after rising a further 1.65% since the Fed's rate decision.
*The Dollar declined to a 19-week low against the Japanese Yen.

USA100 Close to Reaching All-Time Highs!

The USA100 rose in value for a sixth consecutive day and if the volatility levels continue, the asset will be on track to complete its strongest week of the year. Investors heavily exposed their portfolios to the US stock market and particularly the tech sector. Investors show a clear "risk-on" appetite which can also be seen in bond yields which again collapsed. In addition to this, other safe haven assets, such as the Dollar, fell a whole 1%. The cheaper Dollar and lower bond yields are likely to support the US stock market if they follow the market's traditional "domino effect".

The Fed President speech made it clear that the monetary policy will be set to ensure employment remains high and that prices remain stable. The president stressed the importance of keeping inflation stable and not necessarily applying further downward pressure. The press conference reassured many investors and improved investor sentiment. The Federal Open Market Committee's new forecast points to interest rates declining to 4.60% in 2024, 3.60% in 2025 and 2.90% in 2026. As a result, the cost of debt will decline and consumer demand may rise, supporting companies within the USA100.

In addition to the Fed's forward guidance, the latest Producer Price Index is also supporting stocks. Producer inflation read 0.00%, which is lower than the previous 0.2% expectation. As a result, investors continue to predict that inflation will remain controlled and potentially decline further in the next 2 months. For inflation to remain stable, investors will also be monitoring oil prices aiming for crude oil to mainly trade below $70 per barrel.

In terms of technical analysis, the price of the USA100 remains within the bullish trend zone of the regression channel. In addition to this, the price trades above the price sentiment line and the trend-based moving average. For this reason, technical analysis indicates an upward trend going forward similar to fundamental analysis. However, most Oscillators indicate the price is "overbought". Therefore, it is important to consider the appropriate price to speculate the upward price movement.

Lastly, the monetary policy of the Swiss National Bank, European Central Bank and Bank of England will influence the USA100. Buyers and bulls will ideally be hoping for a similar dovish tone. In addition to this, investors will be hoping for higher-than-expected US Retail Sales.

USDJPY – Japanese Yen Takes Advantage of Dollar Weakness

Investors looking to avoid "news risk" may look to the Japanese Yen which is not expecting any major news during this morning's European and Asian session. The Japanese Yen is increasing in value against all major currencies including the US Dollar, Euro and Pound during this morning's session. The exchange rate has also declined for three consecutive days and the Dollar Index is trading 0.19% lower this morning.

This week, Japan has released various data regarding the economy and confidence which have read stronger than expected. Thus, the confidence of national business has almost reached two-year highs, which, according to experts, confirms the stability of the country's economy in the context of the global crisis and gives the regulator grounds to reduce incentives and move to a tighter monetary policy.

The USDJPY is not oversold, similar to other currency pairs, which still gives an opportunity for traders to speculate. Sell signals are likely to arise from technical analysis if the price declines below 141.285.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 18th December 2023.

Market Recap: Focal BoJ ahead & the very last key US data

Markets are starting to wind down for the year. The four major central bank, the FOMC, ECB, BoE, and SNB all left policy rates unchanged, and most dialed back their hawkish biases. But while officials tried to jawbone and push back that early rate cuts are not on the table, the markets quickly equated the steady stance and shift in bias to pricing in rate cuts sooner than later. Indeed the markets ran with expectations for easing as soon as the first half of the year, if not March for the FOMC.

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

*FED: Fed's Bostic sees two 25 bp cuts in 2024, but said it's not an "imminent thing," in a Reuters interview. New York Fed President Williams said its too early to begin thinking about cuts. Still, U.S. futures are already finding buyers again after a mixed close on Wall Street Friday.
*Japan: The BoJ is the focal point this week as it's the last major bank to meet. Risks for no action have picked up as data have failed to give Governor Ueda the confidence needed to exit negative rates or YCC at this point.
*China's PBOC resumes 14-day cash injections. The move likely designed to smooth liquidity conditions over the year-end. Borrowing costs were held unchanged at 1.8% and 1.95% respectively.

Market Trends:

*Treasury yields slightly higher however the 2-year still closed the week with 28 bp drop, marking the lowest closing since mid-May. The 10-year notes stood at 3.91%.
*Asian stock markets declined, and European futures are also in the red, after Fed comments on Friday tried to push back against excessive rate cut speculation.
*Stocks: The JPN225 slumped 0.7% on weakness in Yen. The US500 futures inched up 0.3%, while US100 added 0.2%, EU50 futures slipped 0.3% and UK100 at 0.1%.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex at 102.00 after drifting to 101.43.
*EURUSD corrected to 1.0920 after a solid weekly gain If Eurozone activity fails to stabilize, Lagarde will be under pressure to change her tune and prepare for rate cuts earlier rather than later.
*GBPUSD moves sideways today and is at 1.2685, while USDJPY corrected again and is trading at 142.55 (38.2% Fib from 2023 upleg).
*Gold turned above $2000 as drop in the US dollar, yields and the Fed's dovish pivot have helped to boost demand for the precious metal.
*Oil steadied above $72 after 5-month low last week amid worries supply will continue to outstrip demand. The weaker USD and dovish Fed comments helped to boost sentiment. The IEA said in its monthly report that it expects global oil consumption to rise by 1.1 million barrels a day in 2024, which means it has revised its demand forecast higher. That added further support and helped oil prices to at least stabilize over the second half of this week. Lower exports from Russia and attacks by the Houthis on ships in the Red Sea offered some support as well.
*Bitcoin holds above 40K for 11 day's in a row, with increasing bullish bias.
*Key Mover: Goldman has raised year-end 2024 S&P 500 index target from 4700 to 5100, representing 8% upside from the current level. Decelerating inflation and Fed easing will keep real yields low and support a P/E multiple >19x.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 3rd January 2024.

Market Recap: Stocks, Bonds open 2024 in the red!

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

*Data in the US included stronger than expected construction spending and weaker than forecast S&P Global manufacturing PMI.
*Fed funds futures have slipped to kick off 2024 as some of the aggressive rate cut bets are trimmed. However, the market is still pricing in close to 6 quarter point cuts. No action is expected for the first FOMC meeting on January 31.

Market Trends:

*Treasuries and Wall Street opened 2024 in the red and it basically went downhill from there. Treasury yields climbed 5- to 8- bps, led by the front end.
*A heavy corporate calendar exacerbated the losses from spillover from losses in European bonds, profit taking on the late 2023 rally, and from trimming of Fed rate cut bets.
*Stocks: The US100 dropped -1.63% paring some losses as the indexes finished off their lows. The US500 was -0.57% in the red, while the US30 was fractionally higher.
*Moderna shares surged 15.5% after investment bank Oppenheimer upgraded its stock.
*Apple lost 3.6%, its worst day in 5 months after Barclays downgraded its shares, Nvidia and Meta Platforms both fell more than 2%. Lack of new features and Iphone upgrades affected Apple stocks.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndexretested 102. The buck is on course for a 3rd straight daily rise, with technical factors as well as risk aversion likely to add support.
*EURUSD has dropped sharply to 1.0937 and GBPUSD dropped to 1.2610. USDJPY nudged up to 142.43 in thin trade, as Japanese markets remain closed.
*Gold declined to $2058 from the $2062.98 close on December 29. Global risks and the weaker US Dollar supported gold prices into year-end and an all-time closing high of $2077.49 on December 27.
*Bitcoin extended above 45K supported by statements that Blackrock & JPMorgan anticipate an imminent spot Bitcoin ETF approval and Goldman Sachs issuing huge 2024 Crypto Prediction.
*Today: Germany unemployment, US FOMC minutes, ISM Manufacturing and US Job openings.
*Key Mover: Oil prices slumped to $70.30 after an intraday peak of $73.64 amid concerns over events on the Red Sea. The escalating tensions in the Middle East are fueling concern that supply may be disrupted.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 4th January 2024.

Market Recap:Sentiment stable for now.

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

*The Fed's minutes to the December 12-13 meeting showed some pushback against imminent easing, while still acknowledging the rate cuts penciled in with the dots. The report showed "all" participants said clear progress had been made toward the inflation goal. Rates had likely peaked.
*"Several" thought the policy rate could remain restrictive for some time and peak rates could last longer than expected. Fed's Barkin said there is still potential for additional rate hikes.
*China services index posted fastest expansion in 5 months amid optimism. Chinese wages in major cities declined by the most on record.
*Japanese manufacturing activity shrank by the most in 10 months in December, as demand ebbed in Asia's largest advanced economy.

Market Trends:

*Wall Street extended its 2024 declines with weakness in tech shares weighing. The US100 (NASDAQ) slumped -1.18%, dropping for a 4th straight session, with the US500 (S&P500) falling -0.80%, while the US30 (DOW) was off -0.76%.
*JPN225 (Nikkei) dropped the most in two weeks, after the Fed minutes, also due to the powerful earthquake in the northwest on New Year's Day and the runway collision between turboprop aircraft and Japan Airlines jet, which dragged down some companies.
*ASX fell 0.53% to trade near 7,495. Hopes that the RBA will no longer be raising rates have been partly driven by the Fed's dovish shift.
*Chinese stocks remained the biggest drag in Asia following the jobs report – CSI 300 down by 0.9% after having slid as much as 1.6%.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex rallied from a session low of 102.07 to a peak of 102.40 before dipping to 102. Markets reassessed their expectations of the scale of rate cuts by the Fed this year.
*USDJPY regained ground up to 143.89 as the Japan market reopened.
*Gold slid to $2030 per ounce, in part hurt by the FOMC minutes, with the firmer US Dollar weighing too.
*Bitcoin steadied above 42500 after diving to 40K territory as $400M was liquidated in 2 hours, as Matrixport rebuffed optimistic reports!
*Key Mover: Crude oil perked up and climbed 3.65% to $72.95 per barrel as a shutdown at a Libyan oil field added to the concerns over Mid East tensions and supply. Currently traded above $73. Libya's major Sharara oilfield, with a capacity of 300,000 bpd, completely shuts down due to protests.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 5th January 2024.

Market Recap: NFP day!

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

*The focus now shifts to the jobs report. Recent data, including jobless claims and the employment components of the ISMs, continue to reflect a decent labor market even as conditions cool. We expect a 140k increase in nonfarm payrolls following gains of 199k in November, 150k in October, and 262k in September.
*Yields remain elevated and near session highs after firmer than expected employment data. The claims and ADP numbers added to the losses along with the rethink of Fed easing bets and spillover from European bonds after a stronger than expected inflation report.
*A heavy corporate issuance calendar exacerbated the selloff too.

Market Trends:

*Treasuries continued to stumble in the new year. A rethink of aggressive rate hike bets, better than expected data, profit taking, and supply have all conspired to cheapen yields across the board in the first week of 2024 trading.
*Wall Street finished mixed with the US100 falling -0.56%. The US500 was -0.34% lower, posting a 4th straight decline. The US30 inched up 0.03%.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex was choppy but ended marginally lower at 102.41, though inside the 102.15 to 102.52 range. It has held over 102 for a 3rd consecutive session.
*USDJPY rallied above 145. Yen has weakened amid speculation that the BOJ might go slowly on changing its lax policy stance as it assesses the impact of Monday's major earthquake in central Japan.
*USOIL prices have increased 1.13% to $73.52 per barrel.
*Gold is fractionally lower at $2041 per ounce.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 8th January 2024.

Bond Yields Rise Triggering Fear of Further Stock Weakness.

The US Non-Farm Payroll figures for December rose from 199,000 to 216,000 and beat expectations of 168,000. The Unemployment Rate unexpectedly remained low at 3.7% instead of rising to 3.8%. However, the real shock came from the Average Hourly Earnings rising for a second consecutive month. So, how did the trading markets react and how are they reacting this morning?

XAUUSD – Technical Analysis Points to Potential Sell Signals

The price of Gold along with other Dollar-correlated assets at first benefited from the stronger than expected employment data. The price of Gold rose 1.31% and also formed a 0.34% bullish price gap. However, the asset struggled at the previous price range and quickly gave up gains. This morning the price of Gold is declining 0.70% which is considerably high for the Asian session and continues to maintain a sell signal on the 2-Hour Chart. The price is trading below the 75-bar average price and below the neutral on the Relative Strength Index. In addition to this, on the 5-Minute Chart the price is also forming a bearish crossover. All the above indicate a potential downward price movement and are likely to strengthen if the price declines below $2,029.00.

The US Dollar Index this during this morning's Asian session is trading at the day's open price, however, volatility is likely to strongly influence Gold. However, US Bond Yields are considerably higher this morning which potentially could support the Dollar throughout the day. If the Dollar Index and Bond Yields rise, the price of Gold has a higher possibility of witnessing bearish price movement.

USA100 – Bond Yields Rise Ahead of US CPI

*Treasuries continued to stumble in the new year. A rethink of aggressive rate hike bets, better than expected data, profit taking, and supply have all conspired to cheapen yields across the board in the first week of 2024 trading.
*Wall Street finished mixed with the US100 falling -0.56%. The US500 was -0.34% lower, posting a 4th straight decline. The US30 inched up 0.03%.

Financial Markets Performance:

The USA100 rose by 1.20% after the release of the US employment data and bullish volatility rose with strong momentum. According to order flow analysts, the upward price movement was partially triggered by the quick decline in entering pending orders. Investors were clearly looking to take advantage of the lower entry point. However, in addition to this, the employment data clearly indicates the strength of the employment sector, the economy and the ability to cope with higher interest rates. As a result, investor sentiment rose and was less concerned about the restrictive monetary policy.

However, the positive data also means the Federal Reserve is unlikely to feel the need to lower the Federal Fund Rate to support the economy. According to JPMorgan, the possibilities of an interest rate cut in March are now relatively low. Though the CM FedWatch Tool continues to indicate a strong possibility of a small cut in March. Therefore, investors are evaluating whether the assets and stock market may be overpriced considering the Fed is now likely to cut within the first 6 months of 2024.

According to Bloomberg, investors are less worried about when rate cuts will start as long as further hikes are unlikely. This is largely due to positive data and expectations of a "soft landing". This shows the economy can deal with higher interest rates. The main concern for investors is that inflation does not rise. Thursday's Consumer Price Index is likely to be particularly influential and inflation is expected to rise for the first time since September. If the Consumer Price Index reads higher than 0.2%, the USA100 potentially could witness a significant decline. Buyers will be hoping inflation reads no higher than 3.1%, or even better slightly declines.

The price movement this morning is trading lower, and investors' main concern is the US market's bond yields which are significantly higher. Higher bond yields can pressure the stock market and if yields continue to rise, stocks will become less attractive. Currently, the price of the USA100 is trading below the 75-Bar trend line, below the VWAP and below the neutral on the Relative Strength Oscillator. All three indicators point towards a potential decline. However, investors should note this is likely to change if the price rises above $16,435.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 9th January 2024.

The USA100 Climbs 2% and Chip-Makers Shine Ahead of Earnings.

*The USA100 climbs more than 2% as sentiment changes ahead of this week's US consumer and producer inflation data.
*The US Dollar Index trades sideways as investor sentiment improves but participants are not yet fully disposing of the Dollar.
*Analysts advise the performance of the Dollar will largely depend on Thursday's inflation data.
*Semiconductor companies such as NVIDIA and AMD outshine the rest of the stock market and particularly support the USA100 and SNP500.

USA100 – Can Stocks Hold onto Gains and Avoid Investor's "Cashing In" Monday's Profits?

The USA100 on Monday witnessed its strongest price increase since mid-November 2023 as investors take advantage of the lower entry price to position themselves ahead of US consumer inflation on Thursday. However, the lower price also provides an advantage for buyers to enter prior to the start of the earnings season.

The asset's volatility will be considerably higher than normal and did not form a retracement for the whole of the US trading session. This clearly shows the session was dominated by buyers and that the market believes inflation will not rise above expectations. The strong bullish momentum is also a result of strong demand for stocks in the "Semiconductor" segment. This is most likely due to their strong earnings and growth over the past five quarterly earnings releases. NVIDIA stocks rose 6.43% and AMD rose 5.45%. Both are influential stocks for the USA100 and USA500.

When looking at the performance of the USA100's components we can see all the top 20 most influential stocks holding the highest weight rose in value. In addition to this, 93% of the index ended the day higher and only 7% recorded a decline.

Bond yields this morning are higher again adding a further 0.040%, but the US Dollar sees little change. The higher bond yields are negative for the stock market if they remain high. For example, yesterday bond yields started higher but could not hold onto gains allowing stocks to rise. If bond yields and the Dollar both rise, traders may consider the possibility of investors cashing in yesterday's profits. Though in the medium-term the price will depend on Thursday's inflation data which will determine how rates may change.

In terms of technical analysis, the asset is witnessing clear buy signals due to the quick and strong upward price movement. However, investors will need to monitor crossovers, breakouts, and indicators throughout the day to determine how the price may develop in the short-term.

USDJPY – Japanese Inflation Data Declines as Expected!

The US Dollar is decreasing in value this morning for a third consecutive day, but not at a momentum to yet spark major sell signals. Investors in the Dollar are treading cautiously until the release of the US inflation data. If US inflation does indeed climb from 3.1% to 3.2%, a rate cut would indeed become unlikely for several months. According to some analysts, if inflation remains sticky for more than 2 months, rate cuts will not be likely until the last few months of the year.

However, if inflation declines and remains at 3.1%, the Dollar potentially can trade weaker. Up to now the strong employment sector and weakening inflation rate over the past 6 months has made a "soft landing" more likely. As a result, investors have been less interested in the Dollar and other safe haven assets such as bonds. However, this will only continue if a soft landing remains the most likely outcome and inflation remains low.

If the price rises above 144.305, buy signals are likely to materialize as bullish crossovers form and the price breaks the bearish wave pattern. However, if the price breaks below 143.65, the short-term crossover will point downwards.

The price movement this morning is trading lower, and investors' main concern is the US market's bond yields which are significantly higher. Higher bond yields can pressure the stock market and if yields continue to rise, stocks will become less attractive. Currently, the price of the USA100 is trading below the 75-Bar trend line, below the VWAP and below the neutral on the Relative Strength Oscillator. All three indicators point towards a potential decline. However, investors should note this is likely to change if the price rises above $16,435.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 15th January 2024.

JPN225 Again Renews its All-Time Highs, Yen Down Against All Currencies!

*China keeps interest rates on hold at 2.5%, whereas investors were previously expecting another rate cut. Asian stocks mainly rise after the Bank of China announcement and Taiwan election results.
*The World Economic Forum kicks off in Davos. Economists, brokers and bankers will be discussing the global economy, interest rates and inflation throughout the day. Traders will be listening keenly to how bankers view inflation after US and EU inflation rose.
*No US trading on Monday 15th, for Martin Luther King Day, meaning limited volatility for the Dollar. Friday's earnings data "mixed" and provides no particular support for stocks.
*The Pound sees "mixed" price movement on Monday before the release of major economic data for the UK.

GBPJPY – Investors Await UK Employment Data and Inflation!

Investors turn their attention to the GBPJPY ahead of major economic releases for the UK. Additionally, the Yen struggles against all currencies on Monday providing FX traders with further opportunities. The GBPJPY has risen 0.40% in this morning's Asian session and continues to obtain buy signals from indicators. The Pound has been supported by the UK's Gross Domestic Product which rose 0.3%. As a result, the UK economy continues to avoid a recession and the Bank of England is less likely to consider interest rate cuts.

The growth in the UK's Gross Domestic Product was primarily due to the acceleration of the services sector by 0.4%. From the G7, the Bank of England is the regulator which is expected to cut interest rates the least. Investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates in March or May, whereas the Bank is England is not likely to do so until the Summer. If this transpires, the Pound can potentially gain, particularly if the Bank of Japan remains ultra dovish.

The Pound is likely to experience a lot of volatility over the next two days due to four upcoming announcements. These include the change in Unemployment Claims, Average Earnings Index, the Bank of England Governor Speech, and the UK Consumer Price Index. If the UK's employment sector remains resilient and inflation remains above expectations, the Pound is likely to again rise. Analysts expect inflation to decline from 3.9% to 3.8%. However, the Pound potentially can increase if inflation does not decline. Anything below 3.8% will be considered positive for the Pound.

In terms of technical analysis and indicators, the exchange rate has been obtaining buy signals since January 3rd. Since then, the price continues to trade above the price sentiment line, above 50.00 on the RSI and continues to form higher lows. If the price increases above 185.495, further buy signals will be seen as the asset crosses the 61.8 mark (Fibonacci). However, investors should note that this will also depend on tomorrow's UK employment data and Bank of England Speech.

Nikkei225 Continues to Renew its All-Time Highs

Earnings season started on Friday, with mixed results from the banking sector. However, the global stock market performed generally well as US Producer Inflation unexpectedly fell. The JPN225 is increasing in value for a ninth consecutive day and is trading more than 6% higher than its previous all-time highs. The bullish price movement is a result of an ultra-supportive monetary policy and a weakening Japanese Yen.

Economists expect that the Bank of Japan in its quarterly outlook report will cut its initial estimate of inflation. This is considered a key indicator of the broader price trend, believed to weaken from the current 2.8% to 1.9% for both fiscal year 2024 and 2025. As consumer price growth has beaten the 2% threshold for more than 12 months, investors believe that the central bank will abandon its ultra-loose policy and increase the interest rate. The Bank of Japan's interest rate has been at -0.10% since 2016. If rates rise, the JPN225 may struggle to hold onto gains unless earnings remain strong, and the global economy experiences higher growth.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 16th January 2024.

Dollar Demand Rises and Global Stocks Tumble, Find Out Why!

*Investors price in 6 rate cuts in 2024, but all Fed members remain hawkish. Economists advise investors are getting ahead of themselves and the Fed is only likely to cut 3 times.
*Finance giants gather in Davos and advise markets rate cuts are premature and the risk of inflation still remains.
*Trump beats Ron DeSantis in Iowa and is on track to represent the Republicans in the 2024 US elections.
*The UK's employment sector remains resilient, but salaries again see a considerable slow-down. The salary slowdown pushes the Pound lower.

GBPUSD – UK Salaries Decline And Dollar Demand Rises

The GBPUSD is trading at its lowest level since January 5th after being pushed lower by Dollar strength and UK data. The US Dollar Index has been increasing in value for 3 consecutive days due to higher inflation data and hawkish comments from global banking leaders. Another indication that interest rates are likely to remain high is this week's bond yields. During this morning's Asian session, the US 10-Year Bond Yields rose 0.055% and again rose above 4.00%. Higher bond yields are known to be Dollar bullish, but investors will monitor if bond yields can hold onto gains. This is something yields were not able to achieve last week.

The Pound this morning is declining against all currencies which provides traders with clear opportunities within the GBPUSD. However, the data from the UK is not "all bad" for the Pound. The UK's Claimant Count Change read 11,700, lower than previous expectations and lower than the previous 3 months. Strong employment means higher consumer demand and means a trickier fight against inflation. However, the lower earnings do help regulators fight against inflation. As a result, investors are ditching the Pound in favor of the Dollar.

According to analysts, investors today have preferred the Dollar where there is already confirmation that inflation rose. Nonetheless, the Pound may correct if tomorrow's UK inflation data is higher than the 3.8% expectations. Though, if inflation does read 3.8% or lower, the Pound may witness further downward momentum.

When evaluating indicators and technical analysis, the GBPUSD exchange rate is currently witnessing potential sell signals. The price is trading below trend-lines, average price movements and below the neutral on most oscillators. The price is also trading below the regression channel and the regression channel is also widening while declining. All the above indicates downward price movement, however, if the price rises above 1.27127, these signals can potentially change.

US30 – Global Sentiment Towards Stocks Declines. Eyes on Goldman Sachs Earnings!

The US30 is experiencing a decline during this morning's Asian session, similar to all other US indices. The US30 was pressured by negative earnings data from the banking sector on Friday as well as the possibility of less rate cuts this year. However, technical analysts remind investors that the price has declined to a previous support level which the asset has not been able to break on the past 3 occasions. Traders monitor the price action as the asset tests this support level.

The next vital announcement for the asset will be Goldman Sach's earnings report which will be made public before the US Session opens. Analysts expect the banking giant to see a 23% drop in earnings per share and a slight decline in revenue. Though, if the data is lower than expected, the stock price can decline. Goldman Sachs is the third most influential stock within the Dow Jones and holds 6.63% of the index.

Lastly, another negative for the USA30 is the stock market performance today globally; UK, EU and Asian indices are trading lower. The poor sentiment within the stock market is largely due to hawkish comments from the Fed and finance ministers in Davos. Analysts advise investors are pricing in up to 6-7 rate cuts in 2024, but banks are predicting 3-4.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 17th January 2024.

Eurozone Economic Trends: Inflation, Growth, and Central Bank Outlook.

In the ever-evolving landscape of the Eurozone economy, key indicators suggest a complex scenario of lower inflation and weakened growth. While central bank officials express optimism about a potential soft landing, the ongoing improvement in German ZEW investor confidence supports this outlook. As we delve into the intricacies of economic data, it becomes evident that the European Central Bank (ECB) is contemplating rate cuts later this year, despite maintaining a cautious wait-and-see stance, while investors are onec again buying into hopes of early trade cuts.

Eurozone data so far was mixed, with German HICP ticking up at the end of 2023 and German ZEW investor confidence coming in stronger than anticipated. At the same time, consumer inflation expectations declined, according to the latest ECB survey. ECB officials meanwhile continued to signal that it is too early to talk about rate cuts, even if ECB's Villeroy repeated that rates are set to decline this year.

German Inflation Landscape: German HICP inflation, confirmed at 3.8% y/y for December, reflects a nuanced picture. The rise in national CPI to 3.7% y/y is partly attributed to base effects from a one-off energy support payment in December 2022. Notably, food price inflation eased to 4.6% y/y, contributing to an overall inflation rate of 3.5% y/y when excluding energy and food. The challenge lies in the impact of these rising prices on disposable income, weighing on demand and overall growth.

Economic Contractions and Optimism: The German GDP contracted -0.3% last year, with adjusted figures showing a flash estimate of -0.1%, potentially indicating a technical recession in the latter half of 2023. Factors such as high inflation, increased debt financing costs, and weakened domestic and external demand have posed challenges to the recovery from the pandemic. Despite these setbacks, German ZEW investor expectations unexpectedly improved, suggesting a cautious optimism driven by hopes of major central bank rate cuts.

Eurozone Industrial Production and Trade Dynamics: Eurozone industrial production contracted -0.3% m/m in November, aligning with expectations and signaling a potential decline in GDP for the last quarter of 2023. Concurrently, the Eurozone seasonally adjusted trade surplus widened to EUR 14.8 billion in November, driven by a rise in exports and a decline in imports. However, the subdued improvement in real terms indicates that the widening surplus may not necessarily signify an overall economic upturn.

Central Bank Insights and Currency Movements

ECB officials remain vigilant, emphasizing that it is premature to declare victory over inflation. Despite differing opinions within the central bank, the latest ECB survey shows a drop in consumer inflation expectations. Geopolitical risks further complicate the outlook, with potential impacts on inflation. Austrian central bank head Holzmann cautions against expecting a rate cut in 2024 amid increasing geopolitical threats.

In the current WEF Annual Meeting, ECB's Lagarde flagged rate cuts in the summer. When asked about a possible rate cut in the summer the central bank head told Bloomberg she suggested that there is likely to be a majority in favor of such a move by then, but cautioned that the ECB has to be "data dependent". Lagarde stressed "that there is still a level of uncertainty and some indicators that are not anchored at the level where we would like to see them". Meanwhile, ECB's Knot stated it's unlikely that rates will go up again, but he warned that the ECB needs to see a turnaround in wages before making a decision and that any easing, if it happens, will be very gradual. Knot also stressed that the more easing markets are pricing in, the less likely it is that the ECB will indeed cut rates. More push back against excessive rate cut expectations has put bonds under pressure this morning, amid the large number of central bankers stressing that rate cuts are not on the agenda for now.

US30 – Global Sentiment Towards Stocks Declines. Eyes on Goldman Sachs Earnings!

EURO: Central Bank and Growth Outlooks Influence Exchange Rates

In the currency markets, EURUSD has undergone correction in response to central bank and growth outlook uncertainties. With the USDIndex surpassing the 103 mark and Treasury yields fluctuating, EURUSD corrected to 1.0883, reflecting the dynamic interplay of market forces.

EURJPY has been oscillating within the 158.50-160.00 range after experiencing a robust rebound to a one-month peak of 160.17 last week.

From a technical perspective, the short-term range is delineated by the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels from the previous decline. Notably, the sequence of higher highs and higher lows, initiated from December's low point, remains encouraging.

Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still hovering above its neutral mark of 50, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is showing marginal strengthening, positioned slightly above its zero and signal lines. This maintains a positive bias in the market sentiment.

Practically, for the bullish momentum to persist, a decisive close above the 160.00-160.50 zone is essential. This breakthrough could pave the way for an advance towards the 78.6% Fibonacci level at 162.00 and the previously breached ascending trendline from March 2023, located at 162.70. Further upward movement may retest the ceiling observed in November at 163.70-164.28.

Conversely, if the price dips below the 158.50 support, a period of consolidation might occur around the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 157.40 before sellers target the lower boundary of the bullish channel at 156.45. A bearish breakout from this point could extend towards the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) positioned at 155.20.

In summary, while EURJPY retains bullish momentum, a sustained breach above the 160.00-160.50 region is crucial for a more significant upside potential.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 18th January 2024.

Gold Council Indicates Higher Prices Amid Geo-Political Tensions.

*The US Dollar Index ends the day higher for a fifth consecutive day but declines during this morning's Asian Session.
*Investors continue to lower the possibility of significant easing in 2024 after the latest US Sales data.
*US Core Retail Sales were twice as high as expectations and rose to a 3-month high. Additionally, US Industrial Production was 0.2% higher than analysts' expectations.
*The British Pound gains after inflation rose from 3.9% to 4.00%. The GBPJPY this morning is trading close to all-time highs.
*Gold Report indicates high demand for Gold from institutions amid Middle East tensions and possible lower rates.

USA100 – The NASDAQ Declines But Outperforms Other Indices Due to Upcoming Earnings

The USA100 ended the day lower for the first time after 8 days of consecutive increases. However, technical analysts are noting that the price has shown signs of weakness since November 11th. The price yesterday fell to a new weekly low but quickly saw buyers re-enter the market. Earnings season starts next week for the technology sector and the bullish momentum is likely to remain only if earnings continue to impress. The Dow Jones and the SNP500 did not see an increase in buy orders like the NASDAQ. This is due to significant earnings expected next week for the technology sector.

When looking at the NASDAQ's individual components, which determines and drives the price movement of the USA100, most stocks were trading lower. Of the top 20 influential stocks only six ended the day high. Of the "magnificent seven" stocks, only Meta rose in value, but not enough to obtain buy signals. From the most influential stocks Intel witnessed the strongest decline falling 2.12%.

Investors continue to scale back interest rate cuts after US data remains strong and economists at Davos correct the market's outlook. The latest US data was the Retail Sales which read 0.6% and Core Retail Sales reading 0.4%. Both releases read higher than expectations and led to a decline in the USA100 and other indices. The higher UK inflation also lowered global investor sentiment. Today's price movement globally signals a slight "risk on" sentiment but the question remains as to whether this will remain.

During this morning's Asian session, the USA100 is trading higher increasing by 0.20%. If we look at most indices around the globe including the JPN225, GER40 and Hang Seng, all are rising. When looking at technical analysis, the price of the USA100 is yet to obtain a "buy signal" from Moving Averages and Oscillators. However, the price is trading higher than the VWAP indicator and buy orders are reading higher than sell orders. Therefore, if upward momentum remains, buy signals will start to materialize after surpassing $16,784.

XAUUSD – World Gold Council Indicates Higher Gold Prices!

Gold fell for a second day on Tuesday after the Dollar continued to strengthen. Bond Yields also rose, which applied further pressure on the commodity. However, Gold trades slightly higher this morning as the Dollar retraces and bond yields decline 0.010%. However, as the European Session opens the Dollar has slightly risen and most other major currencies are declining except the Yen. Therefore, the market still sees demand in safe haven currencies which can negatively affect Gold.

If Gold's price remains above the pivot point at $2,005.70, buy signals are likely to continue to materialize. The same applies if XAUUSD rises above $2,014, but longer-term timeframes continue to signal weakness in Gold. However, the latest World Gold Council report advises the possibility of a higher Gold price remaining. According to the report, demand amongst central banks remains high and amid tensions in the Middle East many countries continue de-dollarization. Nonetheless, the timing cannot be known, therefore technical analysis remains vital.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 19th January 2024.

Market Recap: Global Stocks on AI rally; Yen Drifting.

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* US labor-market data, strong weekly jobless claims, and higher-than-expected retail sales have added pressure against market rate-cut expectations.
* Markets now pricing a 57% chance of a US rate cut in March, down from 75% a week ago.
* Central bankers suggest markets are overly being aggressive in pricing rate cuts for 2024, contributing to the Dollar's resurgence amid turbulence in China's property and financial markets.
* Japan's core inflation slowed to 2.3% in December, its lowest annual pace since June 2022, easing pressure on policymakers and weakening the Yen to 148.44 per dollar.
* UK: An unexpected rise in British inflation has also led to a pullback in bets on Bank of England rate cuts, supporting the Pound.

Market Trends:

* The TSMC projection of 2024 revenue growth of over 20% boosted Tokyo Electron and Advantest, contributing to a total 497-point jump in the Nikkei on the day, with respective advances of 6.03% and 8.2%.
* Chip-related shares, influenced by US peers' gains, were prominent performers. Its earnings spurred the biggest rally in chipmakers in more than a month on Thursday and pushed the Nasdaq 100 index to close at an all-time high.
* Chip-industry stocks led a rally in Japan's Nikkei share average, contributing to a 1.4% daily gain to close at 35,963.27, and a weekly gain of 1.09%.
* "The better-than-expected results from TSMC could be positive signals on demand recovery," said An Hyungjin, chief executive officer and fund manager at Billionfold Asset Management Inc. "With strong AI demand, not only the US big tech firms but also most tech firms around the world have to invest in AI and that could be good news to stock markets."

Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex is set for a 2nd consecutive weekly gain as signs of strength in the US economy and cautious remarks from central bankers reduce expectations of rapid interest rate cuts.
* AUDUSD and NZDUSD are on track for their largest weekly gains since November and July, respectively.
* Bitcoin hit a 5-week low at $40,484 as traders took profits following US approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Investors poured $1.9 billion into new bitcoin ETFs in the first three trading days, falling short of some aggressive estimates.
* Oil prices held steady at a 3-week high amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, where the US and Iranian-backed Houthis engaged in tit-for-tat strikes affecting global shipping.
* UKOIL hovered around $79 per barrel after a 1.6% rise, while USOIL stood above $74, supported by a decline in US inventories. The US conducted multiple attacks on Houthi targets in Yemen, but shipping remains under threat. President Biden affirmed continued US strikes. Crude prices, marked by volatility, face conflicting factors, including Middle East tensions, Fed rate cut uncertainty, and a well-supplied market forecast by the International Energy Agency.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 22nd January 2024.

Market Recap: Stocks extend rally.

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* China's lending rates remain unchanged. That followed the PBOC's decision to maintain borrowing costs earlier this month, which was another disappointment that did little to boost Chinese stock markets.
* Recent data showing resilient US economic activity has caused a shift in expectations, with markets now predicting rate cuts to start in May instead of March.
* European & US stock futures keep rising, extending the rally in global equities that pushed the US500, US100 and US30 to all-time highs. Optimism over expected Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts and the artificial-intelligence boom boosted Equities.
* Interest rate futures indicate a 100 basis points gap between market expectations and the Fed's own projections for year-end rates, contributing to the dollar's struggles.
* In political news, Ron DeSantis withdraws from the US presidential race and endorses Republican front-runner Donald Trump ahead of the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday.

Market Trends:

* Chinese markets underperformed again today toward their lowest level in almost two decades. The Hang Seng plunged -2.8%, the CSI 300 -1.5%. Chinese tech behemoths including Meituan and Tencent Holdings Ltd. were among the biggest drags.
* JPN225 rallied to a fresh 34-year peak today (closed at 36,546.85) on weaker yen but also mainly as the US500's record-high close on Friday buoyed investor sentiment, despite continued signs of overheating in the Asian market.
* DAX and FTSE 100 are up 0.9% and 0.5% respectively while Treasuries have pared overnight gains, and the 10-year rate is now up 0.8 bp at 4.13%. The short end is underperforming in both the US and the EU.

Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex is struggling to extend above 103 due to uncertainties related to central bank decisions in Japan and Europe this week. EURUSD down to 1.0890.
* USDJPY had a notable movement, bouncing from a 1-month low to a high, impacted by the Bank of Japan's 2-day meeting and the expiry of a large amount of currency options.
* Oil prices are down as OPEC member Libya restarted output at its largest field, bolstering global supplies and overshadowing for now concerns about tensions in the Red Sea that look set to continue disrupting shipping.
* Key events for the week include the first estimate of US Q4 GDP, central bank meetings in Japan, Canada and Europe, South Korean economic output data, and initial readings of purchasing managers' surveys in Europe for 2024.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 23rd January 2024.

Market Recap: Asia stocks higher; Yen up post Ueda's comments.

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* China: Reports that Chinese officials are looking into a rescue package for the beleaguered stock market has given Asian equities, and particularly the Hang Seng, a big lift. Sources suggest authorities are proposing some $278 bln be invested in onshore funds.
* Japan: The BoJ left policy unchanged, maintaining its -0.100% policy rate and keeping YCC intact, as well expected. BoJ governor Ueda said there is more certainty in the outlook, which saw JGBs paring earlier gains. There were no significant indications on forward guidance. We see more of a dovish lean from the downwards forecasts, with the Bank likely to leave its stance in ultra-accommodative mode until April when the wage talks should be under our belt.

Market Trends:

* Asian stock markets mostly moved higher, with the Hang Seng surging 3% to a session peak of 15,472 before paring gains to 15,345. The CSI rose to 3240 after slumping to a 5 year low of 3218 yesterday. It was at a 2023 peak of 4201 in late January 2023.
* The JPN225 (Nikkei) is up 0.29% to 36,630.
* Stock futures are higher across Europe, but while the US100(NASDAQ) has found buyers, the US30(Dow Jones) is slightly lower but holds above its record high at 38k.
* Microsoft and other tech giants along with Goldman shares, which jumped 1%, have boosted the Dow higher.

Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex slipped to 102.70 from 103.384 and is seeing broadbased declines.
* USDJPY has been choppy, spiking to 148.55 before drifting down to 147.86.
* Oil prices reached $75 again, as US and UK launch new strikes at Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, adding to the tension in Middle East.
* BTCUSD dropped below $40,000 as the launch of the first US ETF holds the digital currency abated, as investors take profits off the table. Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, fell 6% to $2,325.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 24th January 2024.

Market Recap: China bourses move higher amid stimulus hopes; JGB yields spike.

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* Expectations the FOMC is done hiking rates continued to support Wall Street even if aggressive rate cut bets have been trimmed, while earnings were mixed.
* Yields remain mostly higher, but off their peaks after the decent 2-year auction ($60 bln 2-year note sale). The Treasury is selling $61 bln in 5-year notes Wednesday and $41 bln in 7-year notes Thursday.
* Corporate supply has helped keep the market heavy. IADB priced a $4 bln 5-year SOFR. Also, Romania sold $4 bln in 5- and 10-year notes. Sweden sold a $2 bln 2-year. Bank of New Zealand priced a $750 mln 5-year. Cote d'Ivoire has a $2.6 bln 2-parter. CPPIB Capital offered $1.5 bln in 3-year SOFR.
* Japan reported its exports jumped nearly 10% in December.
* Japanese markets underperformed, with both stocks and bonds hit by speculation that the BOJ is laying the ground for an exit from the negative interest rate environment.
* The China Securities Regulatory Commission, called for better protections for investors and for instilling confidence in the potential for gains in the markets, which have faltered in recent months.

Market Trends:

* Asia: Hong Kong's Hang Seng surged 2% to 15,569.39, helped by gains in technology companies like e-commerce giant Alibaba, which surged 3.8%. JPN225 (Nikkei) lost 0.8% to 36,226.48.
* The US500 added to its gains, rising 0.29% to its third straight fresh all-time high at 4864.6 US30 however was drag lower as 3M tumbled more than 10% on Tuesday after the company's 2024 profit outlook came in below expectations.
* eBay will lay off about 9% of its full-time workforce.
* Procter & Gamble climbed 4.1% & United Airlines flew 5.3% higher after stronger profit for Q4 2023.
* Netflix rallied 8% afterhours after the video streaming service handily beat subscriber estimates in the Q4.
* ASML Holding, a chipmaking equipment maker, reported Q4 earnings that beat expectations and its best-ever quarterly orders, but it kept a cautious outlook for 2024 as it faces new restrictions on exports to China.
* Futures are higher across Europe and the US as Treasuries and Eurozone bonds advance.

Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex found legs and rallied to 103.57. It was firmer against 7 of its G10 peers
* USDJPY steadied on 147.70 as Yen gained support after chief Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday that the prospects of achieving the BOJ's inflation target were gradually increasing.
* Oil finished -0.3% lower at $74.51 per barrel and Gold was 0.3% higher at $2028.34 per ounce.
* Bitcoin steadied around $39,700, after sliding as low as $38,505 on Tuesday for the first time since Dec 1.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 25th January 2024.

Market Recap: Has US avoided recession in 2023? ECB also on tap.

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* Treasuries were weak with yields extending higher still, hit by the double whammy of stronger than expected PMI data and an ugly 5-year auction.
* The healthy rally on Wall Street also weighed, though stocks trimmed gains into the close.
* China bourses continued to rally after the PBOC stepped up support measures yesterday by cutting reserve requirements, while hinting at possible rate cuts.
* ECB Preview: The central bank is widely expected to keep policy settings unchanged and stick with a wait-and-see stance for now, which means rate cuts are not on the immediate agenda.

Market Trends:

* Hang Seng and CSI 300 already staged a late rally yesterday and continued to move higher today, with gains of 1.8% and 2.0% respectively.
* European futures are in the red, however, as the ECB meeting comes into view.
* US futures are slightly higher on the anticipation of US GDP later on which could provide clues as to where US rates might be headed.
* Tesla's profits plummet! Tesla (-5.93% after hours) posted a 23% decline in profits for 2023, its 1st annual decline since 2017!
* Microsoft becomes 2nd company ever to top $3 trillion valuation on AI-driven rally. Apple remains at the top.
* FAA halts Boeing 737 MAXproduction expansion. Boeing -1.32% after hours.

Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex slipped to a session nadir of 102.52 but bounced back to 103.25 to close over the 103 level for a 7th straight session.
* EURUSD is steady at 1.0880. The USDJPY regained some ground after hints at rate rises in Japan triggered selling in the Japanese government bond market. It remains below 148.
* USOIL was up 1.45% to $75.44 per barrel amid ongoing geopolitical risks and following a bigger than expected US inventory draw.
* Gold was down -0.83% to $2012.50 on the stronger PMI data and further trimming in rate cut bets. Markets have reined in expectations for early rate cuts in the US and Europe, and BoJ governor Ueda yesterday hinted that the exit from the negative interest rate environment is coming into view. That should keep gold range bound for now.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.