Profit / Loss Analysis

[Marcellus8610]

Since the end of August, we have been observing smooth wave fluctuations near the levels of 1.0000 and 0.9900 and the formation of a divergence on the daily chart. Moreover, taking into account the daily downtrend, I see that the amplitude of its intra-channel fluctuations has significantly decreased after reaching the key level of 1.0000 and temporarily breaking through it. Despite the fact that the Euro/Dollar is below the key level, I count that the divergence allows me conclude about a further trend reversal or, as a minimum task, growth to the EMA 100 1.0300 and EMA 200 1.0620 levels on the daily chart.
On the four hour chart, the EMA 100 1.00085 and EMA 200 1.00556 levels will offer resistance and are likely to serve as markers to determine further growth.
The recent rush to 1.0200 and rapid fall back makes me very cautious, as the signals that the indicators show during news releases may be false. So if you are trading on support and resistance levels, then make sure that the price has consolidated after breaking through and use additional analysis methods to confirm.

 

[Marcellus8610]

Profit / Loss analysis September 21


EUR/JPY
After clear MACD signals (crossing the signal line and pronounced convergence) on the hourly chart, also price line position under the EMA 100 and EMA 200 lines, gave me reason to open a sell trade.
I took into account the possible risks that could be associated with support at 142.00 and it can be noted as EMA 100 on the four hour chart. But having shown patience and trust in my trading system, I was in no hurry to close the trade too early, during the pullback of 141.840 – 142.250.
In addition, I saw that the Euro Dollar (correlated currency pair for the Euro) did not receive enough support to break the trend.


The GBP/JPY is a currency pair that correlates with the EUR/JPY. The trade was processed according to a similar scenario. I traded the downtrend on the hourly chart even though the MACD was not as clear as the Euro Yen. I took this fact into account during risks calculation.
For both trades the stop loss levels had been placed above the nearest resistance levels.

 

[Marcellus8610]

gbp jpy continues to rise. If you follow my analysis then on September 30 here I published a preliminary analysis of a possible growth, it was justified.
I took into account the EMA 200 and EMA 100 levels, as well as the MACD signal, to determine direction confirmation. When the market made a small correction, from the EMA 200 level on the four-hour chart, another wave of upward movement began according to the formed trend channel, and after a confident breakout of the key 162.00 area, the market grew to 164.400 (the key level of my forecast) and above, reaching the top of 165.200.
Following the current market position the medium-term trend is made up of 3 waves, the last of which has not yet begun a correction. Thus, I am considering the possibility of further decline to the level of 162.750. On the hourly chart, the MACD is beginning to signal a possible decline, just as the RSI is near the 70 level on the hourly and four-hour charts.
Since the EMA levels are broken by uptrend, I cannot exclude the continuation of growth after a short-term correction. If the local top 165.200 is passed, then the level 166.320 and the key top 168.00 will become the next possible striving points. The MACD on daily chart indicates the following growth.

 

[Marcellus8610]

Today’s analysis is related to my EUR/USD trade on September 27th. Also welcome to read about my analysis of profitable trades that I made before in the previous post.

So, the Euro/Dollar, according to my forecast, had a clear divergence on the daily chart. Declining to the levels of 0.95700 formed a narrowing correction, which can be seen on the four-hour chart, where the MACD showed a crossing line signal for a further increase. At the same time, on the hourly chart, the correction showed a strong upward potential and show a convergence on the MACD as confirmation of further growth after going beyond the correction. I waited until the price starts to fluctuate steadily around the key support area of 0.96000 and opened a buy trade.

The first critical moment was when it reached 0.95700, when it became clear that the narrowing correction had changed to a directional corrective trend, and in case of an absolutely correct trading decision, it was necessary to close the trade during the following growth and fluctuations around 0.96000 key level. But instead, I was counting on a rise to the higher 0.96300. However, as the result the trade was close at stop loss level 0.95681.
Thus, this is the mistake in too high deviation in risk management. In this situation, it was necessary to respond to risk signals with higher sensitivity.

 

[Marcellus8610]

Trading profit / loss analysis of EUR/USD trade

I published a short analysis before opening a trade on my telegram channel. if you are interested in understanding the principles of trading on my PAMM account, then welcome.

The main theses of analytics on which this trade was opened:

• confident breakout of the level 0.97230
• breaking through the level of EMA 100 on a thirty-minute chart
• clear divergence on the hourly chart
• clear MACD signal on the hourly chart and on the four-hour chart.

In addition to these data, I used the LUX algorithm for calculating possible risks , stop loss level set at 0.96634

 

[Marcellus8610]

LUX brief analysis

The Euro Dollar has broken through the EMA 100 on the 4-hour chart and is moving towards the key 0.98100 level. I will keep an eye on these markers and if they are confidently broken, then I will consider the prospect of growth to EMA 200 on the four-hour chart 0.98550.
If the current rise is a false breakout of EMA 100, then the decline will probably be next to 0.97500, but will not cancel the option of further growth. It is important to note that the recent rise with a top in October was the beginning of a correction, which can now continue and form either an upward corrective trend channel or a narrowing corrective pattern.
Also of interest is the Euro Japanese Yen, where the price hit a September daily high of 145.630, which appears as a growth marker as a key resistance on the daily chart. There are also a MACD growth signal.

 

[Marcellus8610]

LUX trading process

Euro Dollar and Euro Japanese Yen trades closed with profit
I posted the video of trading and closing on my telegram account.

EUR/JPY closed with take profit 2.81%

EUR/USD closed manually (close to the TP level) after I noted a signal for probably correction (fixed profit in case of further fall 🛡) 5.41%

Total profit today: +8.37%

 

[Arrogate]

Profit and loss analysis is very important to keep the tracks of the trading.

 

[Marcellus8610]

Euro Dollar is preparing to expand the correction.
On the daily chart, the Euro/Dollar shows a confident correction, with MACD convergence, and a signal for further growth. The key level, which will be the first resistance in case of growth, is 0.98750, which was reached during the previous wave of growth and touched the EMA 200 line on the four-hour chart. It is also important to note that the divergence on the daily chart along the main downtrend was broken in the fall to 0.95350.
On the four-hour chart, the short-term picture is clearer. The current narrowing corrective channel can be expanded. The level 0.98750 will exert strong pressure and prevent the trend from expanding, so its breaching will be a marker indicator for growth to 0.99250 and 1.0000.
As for support, the 2 levels that I would pay attention to are 0.97000 and 0.96350. It should not be overlooked that the MACD on the four-hour chart is still in a sell position and at the same time, only historical levels provide support, while resistance is also due to indicative ones.
Probably this week we will not see a way out of the correction, or its expansion, but the next trading week will start with more obvious signals, which will increase certainty.

 

[Marcellus8610]

LUX Brief Euro Dollar update

Euro Dollar (as I wrote in the previous post), broke through the marker level 0.98750 this week and is confidently holding above the MACD line on the four-hour chart. This week's high is 0.99000 and the level I indicated earlier at 0.99250 has not yet been reached. Therefore, in the short term, I can sum up the moderate probability of further growth. But at the same time, it is worth to note that the market is in a correctional channel and its expansion in case of growth to 1.0000 is still unconfirmed. On the hourly chart, the MACD indicated a decline, with a clear divergence. The 4-hour MACD is also close to crossing the signal line and divergence. Therefore, a continuation of the narrowing correction at the moment is more likely than expansion and growth to 1.000 and above.

 

[Marcellus8610]

LUX Brief Euro Dollar update

Euro Dollar (as I wrote in the previous post), broke through the marker level 0.98750 this week and is confidently holding above the MACD line on the four-hour chart. This week's high is 0.99000 and the level I indicated earlier at 0.99250 has not yet been reached. Therefore, in the short term, I can sum up the moderate probability of further growth. But at the same time, it is worth to note that the market is in a correctional channel and its expansion in case of growth to 1.0000 is still unconfirmed. On the hourly chart, the MACD indicated a decline, with a clear divergence. The 4-hour MACD is also close to crossing the signal line and divergence. Therefore, a continuation of the narrowing correction at the moment is more likely than expansion and growth to 1.000 and above.

The option to expand the correctional channel was justified and the price confidently passed the key level of 1.0000. On the daily chart, I see a 100 EMA at 1.01050 which could be the top of this momentum. Its further penetration will mean striving for the next target of 1.0200, which is the high of September. The probability of growth is also supported by the MACD local convergence on the current correction.

 

[Marcellus8610]

The option to expand the correctional channel was justified and the price confidently passed the key level of 1.0000. On the daily chart, I see a 100 EMA at 1.01050 which could be the top of this momentum. Its further penetration will mean striving for the next target of 1.0200, which is the high of September. The probability of growth is also supported by the MACD local convergence on the current correction.

LUX update analytics EUR/USD

As I showed in the replied post, EMA 100 has become the top level for the current corrective trend and now its frames are determined. There is a decline inside this channel and the key support level will be 0.98750, which just coincides with the EMA 200 level on the four-hour chart. This support area also includes the EMA 100 level, the line of which is at 0.98650. A short-term fall within the trend will be a temporary correction and further long-term growth is highly possible with EMA 100 passing to a higher point 1.0200, which I mentioned about.

 

[Marcellus8610]

LUX update analytics EUR/USD

As I showed in the replied post, EMA 100 has become the top level for the current corrective trend and now its frames are determined. There is a decline inside this channel and the key support level will be 0.98750, which just coincides with the EMA 200 level on the four-hour chart. This support area also includes the EMA 100 level, the line of which is at 0.98650. A short-term fall within the trend will be a temporary correction and further long-term growth is highly possible with EMA 100 passing to a higher point 1.0200, which I mentioned about.

LUX update analysis EUR/USD

The accurate forecast last week came true and the price fell to the key level 0.98750, where the EMA 100 and EMA 200 lines are now located on the four-hour chart.
A clear channel is forming on the daily chart and today the price was at 0.9948, but now remains below the EMA 100 0.99365 on the hourly chart. This level will be a marker for further growth. The MACD signal on the hourly chart is quite clear, as is the fact that the EMA 200 is broken. But at the same time, in the longer term, there are no such confident indicators yet. The MACD on the 4-hour chart is just approaching the signal line crossover. I think it's too early to talk about a strong bullish position, because the market can still make several attempts to go below 0.98700 and consolidate in the trend channel support area near the level of 0.98300.

 

[Marcellus8610]

LUX update analysis EUR/USD

The accurate forecast last week came true and the price fell to the key level 0.98750, where the EMA 100 and EMA 200 lines are now located on the four-hour chart.
A clear channel is forming on the daily chart and today the price was at 0.9948, but now remains below the EMA 100 0.99365 on the hourly chart. This level will be a marker for further growth. The MACD signal on the hourly chart is quite clear, as is the fact that the EMA 200 is broken. But at the same time, in the longer term, there are no such confident indicators yet. The MACD on the 4-hour chart is just approaching the signal line crossover. I think it's too early to talk about a strong bullish position, because the market can still make several attempts to go below 0.98700 and consolidate in the trend channel support area near the level of 0.98300.

EUR/USD trend channel is not broken and the market activity over the past 2 days just confirmed my forecast and even exceeded my expectations. Thus, the price fell to 0.97300, and after a short-term consolidation, returned to the trend channel.
At the moment, the EMA 100 and EMA 200 levels on the four-hour chart are the key resistance levels at 0.98600 and 0.98700. At the same time, the EMA 200 level on the hourly chart also placed in this area, and the EMA 100 has already been passed at the price of 0.98370. Moreover, the MACD indicator after a strong impulse signals further growth, this can be concluded after the crossing of the signal line.
On the daily chart, there is a convergence with the current correction of the main downtrend, which in turn is in a weak divergence from the MACD.
I can sum up that the growth potential is quite high. But will it be in the near future, in my opinion no. In the near term, I see the possibility of a decline from EMA 100 and EMA 200 levels to ones with lower pressure at 0.98300 and 0.98100, and there remains the possibility of consolidation and the formation of a narrowing correction. Of course, the breakout of the resistance level of EMA 100 and EMA 200 is a marker event for further growth and continuation of movement according to the current corrective trend on the four-hour chart.

 

[Marcellus8610]

Continuing the chain of posts about the Euro Dollar.
If you read the title of the previous post: "EUR/USD will try to continue rising after a short-term correction" then this would already be enough to use in trading. Fed and ECB, do you follow my blog?
The pair fell to 0.99350, which is lower than I predicted (1.0000). After that, the market turned around and started a strong impulse growth and breaking through the resistance of 1.00930, it reached the level of my forecast of 1.0200. But the market did not stop there, so now we see that it is moving steadily towards the target of 1.0380 EMA 200 on the daily chart, and I believe that this level will be reached during the current wave of growth or during the final third wave that will follow after the correction. I suppose that the historical resistance levels of 1.03230 and 1.03670 may be the final point for the current impulse and the beginning of a short-term correction.
The MACD signals on four hours chart has strong buy direction as well as on Daily chart. The hourly chart MACD indicator shows not so confident buy signal, with a slight divergence and RSI in overbought area. It means that the market is ready for short term correction decline.

 

[Marcellus8610]

LUX trading analysis

The first eur/usd and gbp/jpy trades are unprofitable, because I mistakenly took the breakout of the key marker level of 1.03880 on the EUR/USD as a buy signal. The breaking through this level turned out to be false, and the trade was closed by stop loss.

GBP/JPY reached the level of EMA 100 on the hourly chart and EMA 200 on the thirty-minute chart. Given the situation on the four-hour chart and the MACD divergence, I decided to sell. This is a hasty decision that did not take into account the possibility of an extension of the corrective trend on the four-hour chart to the EMA 100 level.

After the mistakes analysis was done, I analyzed the Euro Dollar market in depth, and a short analysis was published on telegram channel. A few minutes later, I received a confirmation of a sell signal and opened a trade. Further it was closed on a take profit level and covered the loss.

 

[Marcellus8610]

Last time we discussed that the Euro/Dollar could fall within the current uptrend on the four-hour chart, and I also suggested that a correction might be forming.
At this stage, the correction really forms a triangular area, within which fluctuations occur. Moreover, this pattern can be expanded to a rectangular area in case of a decline below 1.03300 and thus form a horizontal corrective trend with support at 1.02740 or below 1.02230. Level 1.03460 ЕМА 200 on the hourly chart will be a marker level and a preliminary sell signal. This signal is likely to be confirmed by the MACD crossing the signal line on the hourly timeframe.
But further, I would also like to consider a more interesting but not yet confirmed variant of the correction formation with a subsequent rise above the daily EMA 200, to a key level of 1.04870. It has already been reached twice within this correction and is a key and marker level for further growth to 1.0600 – 1.0630. Growth inside the triangular correction can be signaled by another breakout of the daily EMA 200.
I also want to pay attention to the daily MACD, which now indicates a weak sell signal. This could mean a decline in the long term. In addition, the MACD divergence on the 4-hour chart, where the correction diverges from the descending MACD, is hinting at a fall.

 

[Marcellus8610]

In a previous post I wrote that there are some preconditions for a further fall as part of the formation of a rectangular correction. This analysis was not 100% accurate, but there was still a drop as I said according to the 1.03460 marker level and MACD data that preceded the decline to 1.02900, almost touching the EMA 100 on the 4 hour chart.
But at the same time, I also mentioned an interesting growth option and focused on it. I said that breaking through the EMA level of 200 daily will signal growth within the correction. Also, I mentioned the 1.04870 level as a marker for further growth, with the possibility of reaching 1.06000. As you can see, this is what happened.
For now, exactly 1.06000 will become the key resistance for further growth to 1.06300 and even the resistance area of 1.07800 in the long term. And on the daily chart, the situation with breaking through the EMA looks quite convincing.
But it’s also important to remember that confirming indicators can make a big difference. So, with each new top of the current trend on the four-hour chart, the MACD divergence is getting stronger, as well as the MACD divergence on the daily chart. This means that the price may fall even now in case of breaking through the support of 1.04460, the EMA 100 level on the four-hour chart, which coincides with the daily EMA 200 at 1.03900 and slide to EMA 200 and the support level of 1.02230.

 

[Marcellus8610]

Euro Dollar significantly narrowed the area of fluctuations this week under the pressure of the 1.0600 level, which has already been reached several times but has not been passed. This may indicate that a fall is still more likely at this stage than breaking through the key level of 1.0600. Nevertheless, such a possibility should not be excluded even after a short-term fall, because the uptrend has not yet been broken and can be extended.
On the hourly chart, the EMA levels are very close to the price and will be markers of further decline. Crossing of EMA 100 1.05310 will be the primary signal, while EMA 200 1.05050 will be the key level to confirm the fall. If the price falls below 1.05000 and consolidates below this support area, then I consider this a signal to fall to EMA 100 on the four-hour chart 1.04450, which is also the support area of the current uptrend. The next levels are the 4-hour EMA 200 at 1.03100 and key support at 1.02230.
As confirmation of a possible fall, I would like to note the divergence of the four-hour MACD, and the weak, so far, the primary signal (the signal line crossing) on the daily MACD.

 

[Marcellus8610]

December is almost in the middle and the trading results show that this year has been really successful for LUX.

Fact 1:
This is the end of the year and I will publish the annual results later, but now I can only hint to those who do not follow myfxbook that the annual profit target is 136% completed. That is, LUX has exceeded expectations. This is a strong motivation

Fact 2:
GBPJPY trade (December 9) was in the top 3 best trades by profitability