Profit / Loss Analysis

[Marcellus8610]

Euro Dollar continues to move according to the trend, and the scenario of breaking through the 1.0600 level and exiting the triangular correction was justified. The upside move in the current trend continues despite an extended divergence from the MACD on the 4-hour chart. There is also a clear divergence on the daily MACD, which means a possible trend reversal.
After reaching the level of 1.07360, the maximum since June of this year, the price started to move within a new triangular correction, in which the level of 1.0600 is a support area. The formation of this correction will probably be associated with a short-term decline to 1.05800 ЕМА 200 hourly and in case of breaking through this level, the next key support level will be the area of support for the trend and four-hour ЕМА 100 at the level of 1.05200. This will become a marker indicator for a further fall and breaking of the current trend with possible targets at 1.04450 and the four-hour EMA 200 area at 1.03700.
For further growth, within the trend, the price must pass through 1.06150 EMA 100 hours and a key level of 1.06500 for growth to 1.06930 and above.

 

[Marcellus8610]

LUX analysis update

Euro Dollar continued to move in a horizontal trend instead of forming a triangle, as I expected. However, the probability of falling and breaking the current uptrend remains high and I believe that next week it is possible to break through 1.05500 four-hour EMA 100 and fall to EMA 200 1.04280, which is located close to EMA 200 daily at 1.04150. The MACD divergence on the 4-hour and daily charts continues to signal further decline.
In order to assess the possible options and risks, I want to return to the uptrend and the option of its development. In order for further growth to be possible, it is necessary to pass through the resistance level 1.06570 and the key level 1.06930.
But even in the case of a short-term growth, I believe that the divergence will not be violated and a fall to the mentioned targets will follow.

 

[Marcellus8610]

The previous Euro/Dollar update markers I was expecting to see were not activated. However, I did not take any hasty action and did not trade without clear signals 🛡, so during the holidays the trading activity slowed.
Regarding euro dollar situation this week, I see that the price is consolidating around the support of the trend, while remaining within the horizontal trend between 1.6570 and 1.5900. As I said earlier, I mentioned these levels as markers, it is also worth paying attention to the change in EMA 100 and raising its line to 1.5750, which will also provide support in case of an attempt to break through the support and drop to EMA 200.
It is important to note that the divergence, as I expected, at the 4-hour MACD was not violated with a short-term increase within the horizontal correction of the main trend, but at the same time, there are no clear signals on the hourly chart to confirm the fall. The 100 and 200 EMA lines on the hourly chart are almost moving at the same level.
The conditions to confirm the growth have not changed: the resistance level 1.06570 and the key level 1.06930 should be passed through.

 

[Marcellus8610]

EUR/USD continues to move within the uptrend, this time forming a new correction. The currency pair is confidently but so far unsuccessfully trying to break through the key level 1.08650, which at this stage is a marker for possible further growth and trend expansion. At the same time, the EMA 100 line on the weekly chart is currently at 1.08530. The crossing of this line this week cannot yet be marked as a clear buy signal, since at this stage it is a false breakout. But in this way, I can conclude that this resistance area is putting quite a lot of pressure on the price formation.
Of course, if the weekly EMA 100 is confidently broken and at the same time 1.08650, the continued growth to the historical 1.09400 and then to the weekly EMA 200 line is highly possible.
Despite the fact that the influence of the resistance is strong enough to prevent further growth for the third time since Friday, the buy MACD signals on the daily chart are quite clear, as well as on the weekly one.
Given the pressure of the resistance levels, I have to consider a possible fall after the current correction. The key level for a sell signal is the EMA 100 line on the hourly chart, which is now at 1.08050. The marker level is a support at 1.07900 hat is also forms the boundaries of the correction channel. In case of crossing the EMA 200 line on the hourly chart, which is at the level of 1.07600, I would predict the continuation of the fall until the area of 1.07160 and EMA 100 on the four-hour chart. The MACD signal on the four-hour chart shows a steady decline.
Thus, I assume that a correction and a short-term fall is possible now, after recent impulses, but after reaching more confident support levels, growth may resume again according to the current uptrend. Regardless of the forecast, I will wait for the clearest signals and reaching the markers in order to start trading.

 

[Marcellus8610]

Euro Dollar finally passed the level of 1.08600 and continues to fall, approaching the local support of 1.08430, which makes it possible to consider 2 possible scenarios:

1. break through the current support level with the decline to EMA 100 on the four-hour chart and the key level 1.07900. On the four-hour MACD, I would mark the position of the signal line and a possible transition to the negative values area. On the daily MACD the crossing of the signal line is clearly visible which indicates a fall.
2. return to a horizontal corrective trend or short-term growth with breaching 1.08600 (EMA 200 hourly) as a resistance level. This will make it possible to consider the probability of returning to a local uptrend. At the moment, I would consider a massive increase and a return to the trend as an unlikely option.

I have not entered the market for now and I'm waiting for a clearer signals and interaction with marker levels.

 

[Marcellus8610]

Euro Dollar finally passed the level of 1.08600 and continues to fall, approaching the local support of 1.08430, which makes it possible to consider 2 possible scenarios:

1. break through the current support level with the decline to EMA 100 on the four-hour chart and the key level 1.07900. On the four-hour MACD, I would mark the position of the signal line and a possible transition to the negative values area. On the daily MACD the crossing of the signal line is clearly visible which indicates a fall.
2. return to a horizontal corrective trend or short-term growth with breaching 1.08600 (EMA 200 hourly) as a resistance level. This will make it possible to consider the probability of returning to a local uptrend. At the moment, I would consider a massive increase and a return to the trend as an unlikely option.

I have not entered the market for now and I'm waiting for a clearer signals and interaction with marker levels.
View attachment 5755

LUX trading results
The recent trading results (final trades in January) made it possible to improve the monthly profitability to 7.75%

Brief trading analysis
EUR/USD faulty entry into the market. After my forecast for the further decline was fully justified, I was expecting a decline continuation or a new attempt to pass the EMA 100 support area on the four-hour chart. However, the correction started and the price reached the 1.08500 level, so the trade was closed with a loss when I saw a possibility of further growth. That was the correct decision in the intraday term, however there is also a probability of further decline after the current short term correction.
GBP/JPY opened after an unsuccessful attempt to break through key levels on the thirty minute chart. The correction from 30 minute EMA 100 level started and I took into account the MACD indicators on the hourly and four-hour charts. The trade was closed with a profit after the decline closer to the key support of 160.200

 

[Marcellus8610]

Euro Dollar has a quite interesting situation this week. The long-awaited decline towards the 1.07000 support has taken place, and now the price is even lower, at 1.06760. The EMA 200 level on the four-hour chart provided proper support, as I expected, but nevertheless it was broken and is now above the price level, which certainly indicates a possible continuation of the decline. But it is also important to note that falling to the levels of EMA 100 and EMA 200 on the daily chart will be possible only in case of a confident breakout of the current key level. I will set the marker level 1.06500, and its breakout will signal a further fall to 1.05810 and below 1.05200 (daily EMA levels). It's also important to note that on the four-hour and hourly charts, the EMA levels are located above the current price, which may mean some pressure on the price as resistance.
MACD divergence is developing on the 4-hour chart, it gives a reason to consider a short-term increase for a possible test of resistance now or in case of a decline, I expect a corrective movement this week. On the daily chart, the MACD also indicates a divergence, but it signals a further decline.
I also updated the trend channel lines and now it is clear that the price is in the trend support area, and further decline will be a breakout of the uptrend channel.

 

[Marcellus8610]

LUX trading results

February 15, the day before the trading period restart.
I closed the EUR/JPY trade with a profit of 3%, and now the LUX profitability reached 5.41% in February, that is an optimal indicator for the successful trading plan fulfillment.

 

[Marcellus8610]

February monthly trading report is already updated on the LUX website and also, the most detailed information is on myfxbook page.

The February result is 9.74% profitability , with a good stability of trading (71% of profitable trades).
All the mistakes of the 2022 year were corrected in January and now, when the changes are adapted, the trading system will increase profitability. This month is a good indicator that the work was not in vain.

 

[Marcellus8610]

Euro/Dollar fell again to the key support area, 1.05300, where the daily EMA 200 (1.05370) and EMA 100 (1.05540) lines are located.
The key level 1.05300 passing will be considered as a signal for further decline and the possible formation of a head and shoulders pattern.
The current short-term growth does not yet cancel the option of falling below 1.05300 and I believe that this movement is within the correction. EMA 100 and EMA 200 lines on the hourly chart (1.05900 and 1.06050) and the four-hour chart (1.06400 and 1.06650) will influence the possible growth, so I suppose EUR/USD will not be able to start an impulse now that could push the price out of the correction channel, above 1.06900. However, I am monitoring the situation and I am ready to use the opportunities to open trades that the market will provide.

 

[Marcellus8610]

The market has been volatile this week and my trading plan has been adjusted. Despite my forecast for the EUR/USD has not yet come true, although I expected a fall after breaking through the 1.05300 key level, this week's profitability is 2.83%, and the March monthly now is 5.5%

An interesting fact, which is actually the result of the correct trading system adjustment during a change in market behavior.
3 out of 7 trades in March are among the fastest (8, 9, 11 minutes) and all of them are profitable trades.
The result does not require any more comments. Just see how those 28 minutes have affected your investment balance

 

[Marcellus8610]

This week the LUX trading will start later as the situation with the EUR/USD has changed and I had to reject the head and shoulders option and rebuild the trading plan. For now, I see that the 1.05300 level, where the EMA100 and EMA 200 lines were placed on the daily chart, has provided strong enough support to withstand the pressure and prevent the downtrend from breaking.
Euro Dollar gained more than 400 points in a week, which gave many traders confidence in the continuation of growth.
I want to draw attention to the fact that EMA 100 crosses 1.08300 on the weekly chart, which leaves the possibility of further growth open and points to the nearest resistance level at 1.10275 and 1.11000 EMA 200 on the weekly chart. Despite the high probability of continued growth, I also want to consider the option of a correction and a decrease to the level of 1.07200, but I must admit that a number of support levels (1.08300, 1.07750 (hourly EMA 100) will prevent a deep correction.
It is also important to note that upon reaching 1.10275, there will be an option for a double top formation and further fall within this pattern.
Based on the current data, I would look very closely at the growth option, but in case of a decline below 1.08300, as a marker level, I will consider trading on a correction.

 

[Marcellus8610]

LUX trading results
I believe that the March result has become an indicator of the trading system stability. In accordance with the trading plan, the account reached profitability level more than 10% monthly (account participants have a profit of 10.59% this month)
On the video posted on instagram, you can see the period of activity and closing of the EUR/USD trade. Despite the take profit was set above the support level, I closed the trade prematurely, having received a signal of a probably further growth. I must admit that I made a mistake and the price did not reach the take profit level.
The GBP/USD trade reached the take profit level an hour earlier and was closed with a profit.

 

[Marcellus8610]

The first April week started with a steady growth and the continuation of the uptrend, while the resistance level of 1.09100 was passed with a new top for the local trend at 1.09730. But after the Wednesday, the price returned and consolidated in the area 1.09100 – 1.09200. This correction provides some space for further possible prospects next week.
The priority for me remains the rise to the level of 1.10300 and further interaction with this key resistance level. This will be possible only if the uptrend on the 4-hour chart continues and the price exits the 1.09200 area and rises above the key marker level 1.09730.
In order to consider the option of falling after the current correction, I propose to clarify key levels that will provide support. First of all, it should be noted that a decline below the level of 1.08750 will be the primary sign of a break in the uptrend. Moreover, EMA 200 on the hourly chart is currently located at 1.08820, which will also provide support. The initial level, which could become a decline target, will be the EMA 100 area on the four-hour chart (the line is now at 1.08330) and also the key support level 1.07850 (close to EMA 200).
There is a slight MACD divergence in the 4 hours chart, but the EMA and RSI do not confirm this possible reversal signal.
Thus, at the moment I noted quite favourable conditions formed for further growth, while the fall will involve the influence of several support levels.

 

[Marcellus8610]

My previous analysis of the EUR/USD pair had some upside bias and a likely double top formation from 1.10300. But this week the market, having some volatility, tested the EMA 100 level on the four-hour chart (1.08330) that I also mentioned and returned to the level of 1.09100. Thus, the current uptrend has not been broken, and the growth option is still among the possible ones in the near future. The 1.09730 top level is a resistance, and it will have an impact on the price in case of growth. I will consider the level 1.09300 as a marker level for further growth to the nearest resistance 1.09730. At the same time, further growth will mean a probable achievement of 1.10000 and 1.10300. In order to see possible decline options, I would again pay attention to the fact that the EMA lines on the hourly chart are very close below the price line and can probably provide support, but if they are broken, I would consider a second possibility of falling to 1.08330. This is a marker level, which will show the prospect of further fall, or continuation of fluctuations within the horizontal channel 1.09300 - 1.08330.
Looking more closely at the hourly chart, I see that the next support is at the EMA 100 line at 1.08970 and the following at EMA 200 1.08850.
The MACD shows a preliminary buy signal on hourly. On the four-hour MACD chart, the signal line crossing is quite clear and shows a predisposition to growth.

 

[Marcellus8610]

Euro Dollar reached the level of 1.10300 and even the next high at 1.10750, which will be a key resistance level for further growth and continuation of the uptrend. Now, the market is fluctuating inside the uptrend channel on the four-hour chart.
On the hourly chart, the price has already crossed the EMA 100 during a local correction, but is still above the EMA 200. This position provides me with the 2 marker levels at EMA lines on the hourly chart (1.10000 and 1.09500) for further movement. The MACD on the hourly chart shows a weak buy signal as well as a slight divergence that is better visible on the 30 minutes chart.
On the 4 hour MACD chart, there is a strong sell signal and the RSI is fluctuating around the 50 area, indicating that the market is temporarily uncertain. The divergence that was forming earlier was partially broken by the recent growth, but I will continue to take it into account, because it can be broken or continued with further market movement.
The chart shows an uptrend that is currently active and can be continued. But if the formation of the double top continues and the sell signals are confirmed, then this trend will be broken. Also a very important aspect is the presence of several support levels: 1.09200, 1.09000 (now EMA 100 on a four-hour chart) and 1.08330 (now EMA 200 on a four-hour chart).
Preliminarily, I estimate this situation as prone to short-term growth with a possible test of 1.10300 and even 1.10750. But after that, a fall will form, which may lead to a violation of the current trend. I have set marker and key levels that I will rely on while trading.

 

[Marcellus8610]

Bitcoin looks quite confident now about its further growth. I would clarify that the small momentum from 27k to above 30k opened new medium-term prospects for Bitcoin. The level of 25000 was the initial signal, because the EMA 200 line on the weekly chart was crossed exactly at this price. Now, the 30000 level has been passed and the EMA 100 line has been crossed on the weekly chart. At the same time, I see a transition to positive MACD values, which may be the beginning of a more intensive growth to the level of 35k, which is a key historical level. As for the rise to the 48-50k level, I believe that this level should be considered with some caution, as it will provide strong resistance and possibly become a key level for a temporary or even deep correction back to values around 30k.
There is a slight divergence on the 4-hour chart, and a preliminary sell signal, so I assume that there will be a short-term correction before a possible upside impulse. This can also be noted from the RSI position, near 70 on the daily and weekly charts.
As for my opinion on the long-term future of bitcoin, I will clarify that I see it in a sufficiently promising position.

 

[Marcellus8610]

I would like to make a few posts with a short analysis of two trades that were the most interesting of the recent ones.

Overview data:
5 trades for the period from April 19 to April 24.
4 trades out of 5 are profitable and closed at the take profit.
1 losing trade was closed by stop loss.
Fully completed trading plan for the week and for the month: April profitability is 9.67%.

 

[Marcellus8610]

The GBP/JPY trade is undistinguished according to the open and close. A fairly clear MACD signal and a decline below the key level of 167.00 was confirmed by an additional crossing of the EMA lines, in addition, a clear formation of a correction on the uptrend was an important decision-making factor. This trade is important because it shows the moment of endurance and patience. On the chart, I marked 3 moments during which the price went into the loss zone, but nevertheless, trading according to my strategy and plan, I decided to wait further and, as a result, made a profit with a take profit. Of course, after the MACD 200 line was passed on short timeframes, and the EMA 100 line was crossed on the hourly chart, I was already sure that the temporary market return and a small drawdown would be insignificant. The MACD signal was quite clear, with a passing to the zone of negative values on the hourly chart, and this confirmed my confidence. The take profit level was set above the key level of 166.500 influence area.

 

[Marcellus8610]

The USD/JPY trade is interesting as an example of analysing possible movement scenarios and strictly following the established plan and trading system. The trade was opened according to the uptrend, after unsuccessful attempts to break through the channel support area, as well as EMA 200 on the hourly chart. At the same time, I saw that the levels of 134.00 and 133.900 will provide support.
However, after the opening, the market immediately went down, trying to create a false breakout of the EMA 200. I was ready to take a loss if I received information about a possible deep fall and trend break, but instead, the MACD showed divergence on short-term timeframes , and on the hourly chart, the MACD signal line was not crossed confidently, thus allowing my to wait.
Despite the tense period after the open, my patience was rewarded as the market impulsively continued to move with the trend and returned to the area above the EMA lines on the hourly chart. The market confirmed quite strong growth markers, so the following decline was not so important, I saw that the market would return to 134.400 – 134.500 and therefore I set the take profit below the top level to be sure that the trade would be closed with a profit.