HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 17th September 2024.

US Market Awaits Fed: Will a 0.25% Cut Cause a Drop?

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*European indices including the Euro Stoxx 50 and the DAX continue to trade higher.
*The European Central Bank’s latest cut continues to benefit European stocks.
*US Stocks “mixed” with the Dow Jones rising 0.55%, the SNP500 0.14% ending the day 0.47% lower.
*The Dow Jones was the best performing US index, largely driven upwards by the performance of Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Visa stocks.

Dow Jones Leads, Outshining NASDAQ and S&P 500!

On Monday, 84% of the Dow Jones’ stocks rose in value with Intel, Cisco Systems and Travelers Cos being the best performing. The index also rose to its highest ever value, so far adding 10.36% this year. Why is the Dow Jones performing better than the NASDAQ and the SNP500?

The stock market in general is known to benefit from interest rate reductions which will take place tomorrow evening. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 67% chance of the Fed increasing 50 basis points, not 25. However, most economists believe the central bank will opt for 3 consecutive 25 basis point cuts for the rest of the year. For this reason, there is a risk of misjudging the Fed, the monetary policy and how to price the stock market. As a result, investors are turning to the Dow Jones which is exposed to fewer stocks, witnessing higher exposure to the banking sector and to defensive stocks such as Procter and Gamble. On Monday, Procter and Gamble rose 1.82%.

According to experts, if the Federal Reserve does adjust the Federal Fund Rate by 0.50%, all indices are likely to increase in value. Whereas, if the Fed cuts only 0.25%, investors will want to be exposed to a more balanced index such as the Dow Jones. Investors will want to be prepared and plan for volatility in both directions.

When monitoring the VIX and Bond Yields, certain signals are indicating some short-term weakness. The VIX is currently trading almost 1.00% higher and bond yields have added 0.005%. This does not necessarily indicate a decline but possibly some weakness before the upcoming interest rate decision. However, if the VIX declines and yields do not rise further, the Dow may again witness positive price movements.

Technical analysis currently signals that buyers are controlling the market with the Dow Jones trading above the trend-line, price sentiment line and above the VWAP. The 75-period EMA and 100-Period SMA have also crossed upwards on the 2-hour chart. The only concern for investors is that the price has risen for 4 consecutive days potentially triggering a more cautious view.

Lastly, the performance of the Dow Jones within the US session will depend on today’s Retail Sales release. The US Retail Sales is likely to decline 0.2% after rising 1.00% in the previous month. Analysts expect Core Retail Sales to read 0.2%. A higher Retail Sales figure is likely to support the stock market in the short-term.

DAX on the Rise: Can the Momentum Keep Going?

The German DAX has risen for 4 consecutive days as has the Dow Jones. However, the price has fallen as the EU Cash Open edges nearer (0.10%). The index is not trading at an all-time high but is trading at an area where the index has previously found resistance on two occasions.

The European Central Bank’s decision to cut interest rates more than what analysts were previously expecting supports the index. The monetary policy adjustment also stopped the downward trend seen so far this month. The question is now whether the DAX will continue to rise accordingly. According to economists, three factors will be necessary for continued growth; for both the ECB and Fed to continue cutting rates in 2024, positive EU data and positive earnings data.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 18th September 2024.

What Does Tonight’s Fed Rate Cut Mean For Gold and the Yen?

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*The UK’s inflation remains at 2.2% as per previous expectations. The Pound remains slightly weaker on Wednesday.
*Gold retraces as traders increase the possibility of a 0.25% rate cut after yesterday’s Retail Sales.
*Gold positions break the previous annual record of 242.314K indicating the high demand. JP Morgan advises the largest risk to the global economy remains the tensions within the Middle-East and this can also impact Gold.
*US Retail Sales unexpectedly rose 0.1%, higher than the previous expectation of -0.2%.

XAUUSD – Gold Retraces As Economists Stick To Their 0.25% Rate Cut Prediction!

The price of Gold on Tuesday fell 0.50% moving back to the trend-line (75-Period EMA) and then retraced upwards overnight. However, the price is now actively declining as we approach the opening of the European Cash Open. Previously the price of Gold significantly rose due to the expectations of the Federal Reserve adjusting interest rates. However, the pricing changes depending on a 0.25% and 0.50% interest rate cut. According to experts, 0.25% could apply some short-term pressure on Gold unless the Fed also adds dovish comments for the upcoming months.

The reason why a 0.25% cut could potentially be negative is because investors have partially priced Gold based on a 0.50% cut, not 0.25%. Therefore, the price movement is largely dependent on tonight’s Federal Reserve rate decision and press conference. During the press conference, investors will be expecting guidance from the chairman, Mr Powell, regarding potential future rate cuts. According to Bloomberg, traders have significantly increased the likelihood of a 0.50% rate cut. However, Bloomberg surveyed 115 US economists, of which 104 advised the Fed would opt for 0.25%.

Leading trading platforms confirm the surge of new investors in gold. According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, long positions in contracts have reached 246.214K, surpassing the previous annual record of 242.314K. Seller positions in this category remain low, totaling just 19.505K transactions. A similar trend is seen at the CME Group, where the average daily trading volume for gold contracts over the past week was 376.2K, far exceeding August’s average of 134.0K.

In terms of technical analysis, the medium-term picture remains neutral. This is due to the RSI trading at the neutral level, and the price trading above the trend-line and the 100-Period SMA, but retracing downwards. Therefore, the overall scenario remains neutral. However, if the price rises above $2,576.00, buy signals are likely to strengthen.

GBPJPY – UK Inflation Holds at 2.2%, Yen Struggles to Gain Momentum Outside Asia!

The price of the GBPJPY trades considerably lower on Wednesday due to the higher value of the Japanese Yen. So far the Japanese Yen is the day’s best performing index and was trading 0.32% higher against the currency market. However, technical analysts have noted that the Yen’s performance becomes poorer within the European session. As the European session edges closer the Japanese Yen Index has fallen 0.06%. The price movement of the Japanese Yen will largely depend on the Fed’s rate decision due to recent correlations.

The Great British Pound Index trades 0.06% lower but is slightly improving since the release of the latest UK inflation date. The UK’s inflation remains at 2.2% as per previous expectations. The Bank of England’s rate decision and press conference will take place tomorrow. Analysts advise the BoE is likely to keep interest rates at 5.00% which is positive for the British Pound.

According to Bloomberg, if the Fed opts to cut interest rates by 0.50%, the Bank of Japan may choose not to increase interest rates again this year. Economists added that the Bank of Japan would prefer for the Yen to gradually decline back to 135.00. Therefore, a 0.50% rate cut could turn negative for the GBPJPY, however, the price movement would need to confirm this.

The GBPJPY is trading at the 55.00 level on the RSI, above the 75-Period EMA and 100-Period SMA. On the 5-Minute chart, the GBPJPY is also close to crossing above the 250-Period SMA. Therefore, most indicators are indicating upward price movement. Nonetheless, this will depend largely on the upcoming monetary policy developments.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 20th September 2024.

Bigger Interest Rate Cuts Spark Surge In Demand For The NASDAQ!

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*Stocks rally after the Federal Reserve chooses to “go-large” with a 0.50% interest rate cut.
*The NASDAQ rises more than 2.50% and the Dow Jones 1.26%. The Dow Jones trades at an all-time high.
*UK Retail Sales rose significantly above expectations. The Great British Pound Index rises 0.35% and is the best performing index after the Japanese Yen.
*Gold attempts to break an all-time high as analysts expect the Federal Reserve to cut a further 0.50% by the end of the year.

NASDAQ – Larger Interest Rate Cuts Prompt Higher Demand

The NASDAQ saw a clear bullish trend with the index rising for 5 consecutive hours as the US Session opened. The higher demand is a clear result of the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates 0.50% and not 0.25%.

The US Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point reduction in the interest rate, lowering it from 5.25–5.50% to 4.75–5.00%. In his remarks, Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, highlighted that the target inflation rate of 2% had been achieved but suggested further decreases could follow. The updated economic forecast projects consumer price growth at 2.3% by the end of the year, down from the previous estimate of 2.6%. Furthermore, economic growth is now forecasted at 2%, compared to the 2.1% predicted in July.

In terms of technical analysis, the medium-term picture remains neutral. This is due to the RSI trading at the neutral level, and the price trading above the trend-line and the 100-Period SMA, but retracing downwards. Therefore, the overall scenario remains neutral. However, if the price rises above $2,576.00, buy signals are likely to strengthen.

GBPJPY – UK Inflation Holds at 2.2%, Yen Struggles to Gain Momentum Outside Asia!

The price of the GBPJPY trades considerably lower on Wednesday due to the higher value of the Japanese Yen. So far the Japanese Yen is the day’s best performing index and was trading 0.32% higher against the currency market. However, technical analysts have noted that the Yen’s performance becomes poorer within the European session. As the European session edges closer the Japanese Yen Index has fallen 0.06%. The price movement of the Japanese Yen will largely depend on the Fed’s rate decision due to recent correlations.

As a result, the Fed expects the key rate to drop to 4.50% this year and reach 3.40% by the end of 2025. Therefore, investors are changing their view as to the “intrinsic value” of the NASDAQ and the stock market in general. The NASDAQ on Thursday was the best performing index largely due to its exposure to growth stocks. Of the NASDAQ’s individual stocks, 85% rose in value on Thursday and none of the top ten influential stocks depreciated.

When monitoring other areas of the market, such as bond yields, indications still remain that buyers will control the NASDAQ. The US 10-Year Treasury Yields has fallen 0.024% during this morning’s asian session. Lower bond yields are known to be positive for the NASDAQ, and investors will continue monitoring the decline in yields throughout the day. The VIX index this morning is trading 0.15% higher; ideally buyers and shareholders would wish for the VIX to decline into a minus figure. Yesterday’s stronger employment data also continues to support the NASDAQ and stocks in general.

Technical analysis continues to indicate bullish price movement due to the upward momentum and volatility. However, as the NASDAQ is currently retracing, upward momentum will need to be regained in order for a buy signal to materialize. When attaching the Fibonnaci retracement levels onto the retracement, a potential buy signal can be seen at $19,920. However, investors are also concerned the price is trading at the resistance level from August 22nd.

GBPUSD – UK Retail Sales Significantly Higher Than Expectations!

The GBPUSD rose to its highest level since February 2022 after rising 0.38% during this morning’s Asian Session. The bullish price movement is related to both the US Dollar’s decline but also the bullish price movement the Pound has seen against the whole currency market. Currently, the GBP is the best performing currency of 2024 so far but also of the day. So far in 2024, the British Pound has risen 4.42%.

The Pound’s upward momentum is largely due to the Bank of England’s decision to keep its interest rate at 5.00%, whereas other global regulators had opted to cut interest rates. In addition to this, the UK’s Retail Sales figure for August read 1.0%, significantly higher than the previous expectations of 0.2%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 23rd September 2024.

Market Update – Gold at record highs; Stocks climb amid Chinese stimulus bets.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Asia & European Sessions:

*Asian markets were mostly positive on Monday, buoyed by last week’s interest rate decisions from central banks in the US, Japan, China, and the UK.
*PBOC reduced its 14-day reverse repurchase rate to 1.85% from 1.95%, following a decision to keep key lending rates unchanged the previous week. China’s decision to hold an unusual economic briefing involving three top financial regulators and its cut to a key short-term policy rate heightened speculation about forthcoming stimulus efforts.
*Chinese stocks rose after the bank’s announcement.
*Japan’s stock markets were closed due to a public holiday.
*Attention remained on the BoJ which also stayed put (0.25%) & Ueda suggested that the central bank is cautious on further tightening amid ongoing uncertainty. This decision led to a drop in the Yen.
*Australia’s ASX 200 dipped 0.5% to 8,170.50 as the RBA prepared for a 2-day policy meeting. The NASDAQ and S&P500 stumbled on Friday to 17,948 and 5702. The Dow edged up 0.1%, reaching a new record high of 42,579.
*This week: key US economic data is expected, including reports on business activity, consumer spending, and a final revision of the economy’s growth during the spring.

The Fed’s decision to cut its key interest rate last week for the first time in over 4 years, with further cuts expected, signaled a shift from its previous high-rate stance aimed at curbing inflation. While inflation has eased, concerns remain about the slowing pace of job growth due to the weight of higher interest rates. Some critics argue that the Fed may have delayed rate cuts too long, potentially harming the economy.

Financial Markets Performance:

*Gold surged to a record high, reaching $2,631.13, as traders anticipated more rate cuts by the Fed following its recent 50 bps reduction. Bullion’s momentum was further supported by concerns over rising tensions in the Middle East, with investors turning to gold as a safe-haven asset. Despite this rally, gold may be overbought, with its RSI nearing 70, a signal of possible short-term overextension.
*Meanwhile, silver, palladium, and platinum posted losses.
*USOIL rose to $71.59 per barrel, while UKOIL gained 52 cents, reaching $75.01 per barrel. Currently they have both seen a pullback slightly into EU open.
*Yen slid from last week’s high of around 140 per US dollar to 144.36 yen by today.
*The USDIndex steadied to 100.50 area.
*The Euro inched higher to 1.1164 but currently is steady after Germany’s Social Democrats narrowly defeated the far-right Alternative for Germany party, maintaining control of the eastern state of Brandenburg. Meanwhile, French Prime Minister Michel Barnier signaled potential tax increases on large corporations and the wealthy to address the country’s growing budget deficit.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 24th September 2024.

Market Update – Risk-on Mood due to stimulus measures; Commodities climb.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Asia & European Sessions:

*More new highs were set on Wall Street today as the Fed’s jumbo rate cut continues to reverberate. Fedspeakers indicated more cuts are in the future.
*European stocks are poised for a positive open, following a rally in Asian markets driven by China’s latest economic stimulus efforts aimed at stabilizing its stock market.
*China’s plan to inject 800 billion yuan ($114 billion) in liquidity support for its stock market alongside measures allowing brokerages to access central bank funds to buy equities, boosted investors’ confidence. These moves are part of a broader stimulus package that includes cuts to short-term interest rates and reduced borrowing costs on up to $5.3 trillion in mortgages.
*While the market responded positively to these policies, analysts warn that the rally could be short-lived, as underlying issues like deflation remain unresolved.
*The RBA held its cash rate at 4.35% for the 7th consecutive meeting, while leaving future policy options open.
*Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.5%, as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index marked its fourth consecutive daily gain. Hong Kong stocks surged over 4%.
*US Stock market remains positive, with the S&P rallying another 0.28% to 5719 while the Dow was up 0.15% to 42,125. This is the 40th new record this year on the former and the 30th for the latter. The NASDAQ rose 0.14% to 17,974.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex was up slightly to 100.898, but failed to hold the test of 101.229.
*Gold managed another fresh peak too, rising 0.18% to $2640 per ounce, supported by rising geopolitical risks, central bank buying, and expectations for further declines in interest rates.
USOil pr*ices recovered yesterday’s losses amid rising tensions in the Middle East after Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon.
*Μost Asian currencies strengthened against the US Dollar, with the Aussie rising against US dollar, i.e. AUDUSD falling to 0.6820, and the yield on 3-year bonds fluctuated.
*USDJPY retests 144.70 (top of falling triangle).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 03rd October 2024.

Dovish ECB Comments Send Euro Downward as Investors Eye US Jobs Data

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*US employment data indicates a resilient employment sector ahead of tomorrow’s NFP data.
*Latvia’s governor, Mr Kazaks, says that officials have sufficient grounds to support further interest rate cuts at the October meeting
*Investors continue to predict a cautious 0.25% cut due to strong employment data.
*The US Dollar continues to be the week’s best performing currency due to a more hawkish approach and a lower risk appetite.

EURUSD – Investors Ditch the Euro For the US Dollar!

The market continues to drive the EURUSD lower due to expectations of the more competitive US market and monetary policy. In addition to this, investors are increasing exposure to the US Dollar due to a lower risk appetite while the Middle East conflict escalates. Yesterday’s Live Trading Session Click (Click Here) pointed out the sell indications between 1.10735 and 1.10684, of which now the price is trading 0.45% lower.

However, as the price is now extremely close to the previous support levels from September 3rd and 11th, Investors should be cautious of buyers re-entering the market at these levels. The support levels can be seen between 1.10256 and 1.10050. In order to break these levels, investors may require further drivers such as tomorrow’s US Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.

Analysts also expect the NFP Employment Change to add 144,000, very similar figures to the previous month. Though some economists now believe this data could beat expectations due to stronger employment data as NFP Friday approaches. Tomorrow’s employment data will trigger significantly higher volatility for the EURUSD.

The Institution For Supply Management (ISM) will publish their second PMI report of the week this afternoon. The Manufacturing PMI read lower than expectations, however, the market gave higher importance to the employment data. Yesterday’s ADP NFP Employment Change read 143,000 which is 19,000 more than the previous prediction. The higher ADP data was driven by leisure and entertainment (34K), construction (26K), and education and healthcare (24K). Today investors will turn their attention mainly to the US Services PMI as well as the Weekly Unemployment Claims.

Meanwhile, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos mentioned that short-term economic growth in the region could be slower than anticipated. However, he expects future recovery to gain momentum, driven by rising real household incomes and easing monetary policy. Latvia’s central bank governor, Martins Kazaks, added that officials have sufficient grounds to support further interest rate adjustments at the October meeting, citing slow wage growth, declining corporate profits, and weak economic recovery across much of Europe. The ECB’s dovish comments also continue to pressure the EURUSD.

Economists currently advise the European economy will not be able to see higher growth unless the ECB opts to cut interest rates to no more than 2%. For this reason, the Euro has been the worst performing currency of the past month only behind the Japanese Yen. Market participants expect the Federal Reserve to cut 0.25% in November and 0.25% in December.

The price movement of the exchange rate will largely be driven by the price movement of the US Dollar and US news. Therefore, the US Dollar Index will be key. If the ISM Services PMI and Weekly Unemployment Claims are lower than expectations, the EURUSD may be at a good level to retrace back upwards. This is due to the price being at a support level and having already fallen 1.65%. However, even with a retracement upwards, the EURUSD on the 2-Hour Chart remains below the trend-line and below the neutral level on most oscillators.

If the price remains below 1.10427, any short-term upward price movement will form nothing more than a retracement. As a result, medium-term buy signals potentially remain intact for the EURUSD.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 04th October 2024.

Investors Increase Jobs Data Expectations As The Dollar Strengthens!

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*The US Dollar increases in value for a fourth consecutive day as the NFP release edges closer.
*US economic data continues to support a soft landing and gradual interest rate cuts.
*US ISM Services PMI beat expectations and rose to an 18-month high.
*Oil prices rise to a 30-day high as Israel confirms the IDF will retaliate against Iran’s latest strikes.

NZDUSD – Markets Expect The RBNZ To Cut, USD Depends On Jobs Data!

The NZDUSD continues to trade downwards for a third day and has done so while only forming one minor retracement. Traders now question how far the exchange rate can fall?

Price action is currently indicating that the market is attempting to drive the exchange rate lower as the Federal Reserve dials down its dovish tone. So far, the price potential looks on track to decline closer to the previous support levels. The closest support level can be seen at 0.61514 and then 0.61234. However, if it is able to do so will depend on the upcoming economic data, particularly this afternoon’s US employment data.

The market has raised their NFP Employment Change expectations to 150,000 for September. However, participants continue to predict no change for the Unemployment Rate. If the NFP rises above the expected figure while the Unemployment Rate remains the same or falls, the data would potentially support the USD further. In addition to this, the next Federal Reserve rate decision in November will most definitely be a 25-basis point cut. This would be key for the NZDUSD to continue its bearish trend back to the 0.61234 level.

On the other hand, investors also should note that the RBNZ will also confirm their rate decision on Wednesday 9th. Therefore, can the price action change as we approach the weekend and next week’s rate decision? This is something investors will need to monitor. Though, so far the worst performing currency of the week continues to be the New Zealand Dollar along with the Japanese Yen.

House prices in New Zealand fell for the seventh consecutive month, though at a slower rate, dropping by just 0.5% following a decrease in borrowing costs, according to economists at CoreLogic NZ. This trend highlights a reduction in purchasing power amid a slowing economy, as rising unemployment starts to impact household incomes. The outlook could shift if monetary authorities maintain their dovish approach at their upcoming meeting on October 9th. Notably, this stance has already helped bring the average two-year mortgage rate below 6.0%.

If the above data does prompt the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut interest rates, the NZD could witness stronger pressure. The Official Cash Rate is currently at 5.25% and analysts expect the Central Bank to cut a further 0.50% to 4.75%.

When evaluating the price movement on the two hour timeframe, the NZDUSD is finding support at the same price but the resistance is not yet clear. This also indicates that sellers remain considerably active. The support level can be seen at 0.62066 and the price has crossed downwards which indicates a sell signal. Though some traders may wish for the support level to be broken before speculating downward price movement.

Furthermore, on the 5-Minute Chart the NZDUSD trades below the 200-bar SMA and on the 2-Hour Chart below the 75-bar EMA. This indicates the trend could potentially continue but traders will need to be cautious about volatility and timing.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 07th October 2024.

Oil bets most Bullish in 2 Years, Stocks pared some gains.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The September NFP report was a blowout by almost every measure. It quickly knocked out lingering fears of a recession this year or early next, but also knocked out expectations for another jumbo -50 bp rate cut this year. So, what’s the market signaling right now? ‘Goldilocks’ scenario?

Asia & European Sessions:

*Equity markets have moved broadly higher across Asia, and European markets are also finding buyers in early trade. Recent US data have boosted growth optimism, and Chinese officials seem more committed to growth boosting stimulus measures.
*Japanese stocks closed higher on Monday, with the Nikkei rising by 2.05%, driven by gains in the Mining, Chemical, Petroleum & Plastic, and Power sectors.
*European equities continue to benefit from a positive US jobs report. The DAX and FTSE 100 have already started to pare opening gains and the DAX is down -0.1%, while the FTSE 100 up a mere 0.04%.
*Data:German manufacturing orders plunged -3.8% m/m in August & U.K. house prices rose 0.3% m/m in September, according to the Halifax index. German data added to signs that the German economy will contract again this year.
*This Week: The inflation data are in view and will have a little more importance as the jobs report has extinguished fears of a recession and boosted the potential for a pick up in price pressures ahead. We expect gains of 0.1% and 0.2% for headline and core CPI for September (Thursday). Increases of 0.1% and 0.2% are projected for September PPI (Friday). Along with the data, there is a host of Fedspeakers through the week and the FOMC minutes (Wednesday). Supply is also on tap with the Treasury selling $119 bln in 3-, 10-, and 30-year maturities.
*Earnings season looms: JPMorgan Chase is scheduled to report on Friday, with PepsiCo in the spotlight tomorrow and Delta Air Lines on Thursday.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex traded within Friday’s range so far today and is at 102.32.
*The USDJPY surged to test 149.00 immediately after the data before drifting down to 148.80. Still, this is the strongest since July and early August were the pair hit a multidecade peak at 161.69 on July 3. Currebntly is at 148.13
*According to Bloomberg, Oil futures posted their largest gain in more than a year last week. USOILhas lifted to $74.63 per barrel as markets watch developments in the Middle East. Gold meanwhile is at USD 2649.19 per ounce.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 08th October 2024.

Stock markets remain under pressure; bonds find buyers.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Asia & European Sessions:

*The markets were weaker Monday as players continued to adjust to Friday’s strong September data and price out aggressive rate cut expectations. In fact Fed funds futures have not only taken out risks for -50 bps next month, but now reflect chances for no action at all.
*Wall Street was in the red all session and the selloff extended into the close, in part given the pop in rates.
*Asian markets mostly corrected, with the Hang Seng leading the way and plunging -7.1% as mainland China bourses returned from a week-long holiday. The CSI 300 rose 5.8% in catch up trade, but failed to match the rally seen elsewhere over the past week.
*Investors were disappointed by the briefing from the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission, which did not present any additional stimulus measures. Instead, a CNY 100 billion investment plan scheduled for next year will be brought forward. China also announced a plan to issue special purpose bonds designed to stimulate local government growth.
*According to FT: ”Hong Kong equities were on track for their worst single-day performance since the global financial crisis on Tuesday, even as stocks in mainland China rose on their first day of trading after an extended break.”
*RBA minutes suggested that the bank will keep interest rates at their 12-year high until inflation shows consistent signs of nearing its target. Minutes also reveal that the board considered both tightening and easing monetary policy, depending on future economic conditions. For now, they have decided to maintain the rate at 4.35%, reflecting uncertainty in the economic outlook.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex closed at 102.493 after hitting a high of 102.620, the best since August 15.
*USOil rallied 3.9% to $77.87 per barrel prior to retreating to $75.44.
*Gold holds $2620 floor for a 3rd week in a row.
*Treasury yields hit their highest levels since the summer. The NASDAQ dropped -1.18%, while the S&P500 slumped -0.96%, with the Dow off -0.94%.
*Nikkei lost 1.2% to 38,861.09.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 09th October 2024.

Mag 7 surged, Oil dipped as China weighed on the demand outlook.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

It is a real mix in the markets amid a confluence of factors including positioning, Fed policy outlooks, growth and inflation outlooks, election uncertainties, and stimulus (or lack of) from China.

Asia & European Sessions:

*Wall Street climbed amid a surge in the Mag 7 stocks, paced by Nvidia (+4%). Stocks are recovering in general after the retreat to begin the month as unwinding of big rate cut bets and geopolitical angst weighed. Investor optimism has gotten a boost from signs of a solid labor market and economy, as well as from the stimulus from China.
*Goldman Sachs raised its outlook on the S&P500 to 6,000. The NASDAQ ended with a 1.45% advance, while the S&P500 was 0.97% higher, and the Dow was up 0.30%. The VIX fell -5.3% to 21.43.
*The US Justice Department announced on Tuesday that it may request a court order compelling Alphabet’s Google to sell off parts of its business, including its Chrome browser and Android operating system, which authorities argue are key tools in maintaining its illegal monopoly in the online search market (handles 90% of internet searches in the US, had established an unlawful monopoly).
*Nvidia surged 4% posting its 5th consecutive day of gains. Nvidia shares have risen nearly 14% in the past week and are up 190% over the past year. Several major investment firms, including KeyBanc, Citi, and Bernstein, reaffirmed their positive ratings on the stock. KeyBanc analysts also increased their 2025 sales forecast for Nvidia to $130.6 billion, driven by strong demand for its new Blackwell AI chips, which are expected to contribute $7 billion to fourth-quarter revenue. Wedbush analysts highlighted that the recent $6.6 billion funding round for OpenAI could spur further investment in AI startups, boosting Nvidia’s AI chip demand well into 2025.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex was little changed at 102.50.
*USOil slid -4.17% to $72.26 per barrel following the climb to a session peak of $78.46 Monday, in part as China failed to add to its stimulus binge. Oil is facing a tug-of-war between fundamentals indicating a surplus in 2025 and geopolitical tensions.
*Gold broke below the key $2620 per ounce from the record $2672.38 from late September amid expectations for a benign CPI report ahead along with the firmer dollar. Risk aversion has been keeping demand for the precious metal underpinned, even against the background of a pickup in yields and a stronger dollar. OTC sales have also helped to boost prices, while central bank demand has eased somewhat with the rise in prices. Recent data showed that China’s central bank refrained from purchasing gold for its reserves for a fifth consecutive month in September.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 10th October 2024.

Stocks mixed after a largely higher close, Disagreement in Fed; Eyes on US Inflation.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Asia & European Sessions:

*Treasuries sold off on the session with few buyers willing to step in to backstop the market ahead of CPI. Fading rate cut bets continued to weigh.
*FOMC minutes reflected a tough choice on the September 18 rate cut. There was considerable disagreement over the size of the move. A “substantial majority” favored the aggressive -50 bp action. “Some” preferred a quarter-point reduction although a “few” could have supported the smaller move. All, however, supported lowering rates at last month’s meeting as Governor Bowman dissented in favor of -25 bps.
*Wall Street caught a bid, helped by expectations for a tame CPI Thursday, with the Dow and S&P500 rallying to fresh record highs. The Dow climbed 1.03% to 42,512 and the S&P500 was up 0.7% to 5792. These are the 35th and the 44th record peaks of the year, respectively. The NASDAQ advanced 0.6%.
*Asia Session: Chinese stocks surged following the announcement of stimulus measures, as investors shifted their attention to upcoming data. Chinese investors will be looking ahead to the finance ministry press conference on Saturday for insights into fiscal stimulus plans.
*Japanese stocks present the highest weekly inflows in 6 months from foreign investors as the Yen weakened following dovish comments from Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.
*US CPI preview: CPI is expected to post modest gains in September of 0.1% overall and 0.2% excluding food and energy. As-expected September figures would result in the y/y headline slowing to 2.3% from 2.5% in August, and well below the 40-year high of 9.1% from June 2022. Over the rest of the year the y/y gauges will be restrained by hard comparisons that could see the potential for a slower pace of rate cuts, especially if the economy and labor market remain solid.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex had a solid day, firming for a 6th straight session to 102.92, the highest since mid-August.
*Fading rate hike bets on the BoJ and diminishing rate cut hopes from the Fed saw USDJPY rally to 149.35, the highest since August 1.
*USOil rose after two days of decline, with UKOil trading close to $77 a barrel. The US crude stockpiles expanded the most since April, while the market remains tense over Israel’s potential retaliatory actions against Iran, as Iran has threatened to unleash thousands of missiles if necessary. President Joe Biden has advised against targeting Iranian oil infrastructure and spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday for the first time in over a month.
*Gold extended decline to $2605.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 11th October 2024.

Treasuries close mixed, Wall Street lower, US Dollar steady after data – Eyes on PPI.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The hotter CPI and cooler jobless claims made for mixed action in the markets. There was also some marginal impact from the 30-year auction and Fedspeak.

Treasuries were bifurcated in a curve steepening trade with the front end outperforming. The jump in claims, even if due in part to weather, strikes and other factors, supported expectations for additional rate cuts ahead, though of the -25 bp variety. The 2-year yield closed -5.6 bps lower at 3.966%. Dip buyers from the 4% rate also underpinned. Meanwhile, the long end was heavy on the hotter CPI and with the weight of supply. The 10-year was fractionally lower at 4.067%, but had spiked to 4.115% on the pop in inflation. The curve closed at 10.4 bps from 4 bps Wednesday.

Wall Street finished in the red after the Dow and S&P500 hit fresh records previously. The indexes were well off their lows at the end of the day. The NASDAQ dipped -0.05%, while the S&P500 was -0.21% lower and the Dow was down -0.14%.

The USDIndex finished little changed at 102.70 after jumping to a session high of 103.178 on the CPI then slipping to the day’s low of 102.720 on the claims numbers.

Oil climbed 3.26% to $75.63 per barrel and Gold rose 0.84% to $2629.51 per ounce.

Implied Fed funds futures continue to price in -25 bp cuts ahead, with some chance for no action rather than another jumbo -50 bps. Indeed, the latter has been priced out. This view was supported by the FOMC minutes yesterday that showed a big debate and some push back over the decision to lower rates by -50 bps on September 18. We continue to expect two quarter point reductions over the rest of this year.

In spite of being data dependent, we highly doubt the FOMC will skip November as they kick off their normalization process, especially as officials will be loath to do a start-stop so soon. And Chair Powell and others have told us to monitor the dot plot reflecting -25 bps in November and December as the base case.

Looking Ahead:

The hotter CPI puts attention on PPI and the inflation components of the consumer sentiment report due out Friday. Respective gains of 0.1% and 0.2% are projected for headline and core producer prices in September after increases of 0.2% and 0.3% in August. Results in line with the estimates would see the headline pace dip to a 1.6% y/y rate from 1.7% y/y previously, while the core rate should rise to 2.6% y/y from 2.4% y/y.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 15th October 2024.

Global Markets Mixed Amid Earnings Optimism and Easing Oil Concerns.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The market’s momentum, fueled by optimism around earnings reports, falling interest rates and expectations that the Federal Reserve can reduce inflation without triggering a recession.

Asia & European Sessions:

*European futures rose while Asian stocks showed mixed performance following Wall Street’s record highs.
*Chinese shares saw extended losses after disappointing data showed China’s broader export growth slowed to just 2.4% year-on-year, the weakest since May, reflecting ongoing economic challenges. The lack of clear fiscal stimulus from Chinese authorities continues to weigh on investor sentiment and risk appetite in Chinese equities.
*Technology stocks in Asia followed the strong lead from their US counterparts, with the S&P500 gaining nearly 1% to reach its 46th record high this year. Despite concerns over lowered Q3 forecasts, investors seem to be betting on positive earnings surprises. The Nasdaq also advanced by 0.8%, led by gains in Nvidia Corp., Apple Inc., and Tesla Inc. Financial stocks like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup rose ahead of their earnings releases.
*Nikkei hit its highest level since July, with benchmarks in Australia and Taiwan also trending upward. Japanese stocks were among the strongest performers so far today, with the Yen maintaining strength near a key psychological level against the US Dollar.
*Earnings reports: Bank of America, Johnson & Johnson, and UnitedHealth Group.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex strengthened against most major currencies.
*The USDJPY slightly dipped to 149.34 from 149.96. The EURUSD broke 1.09 and extended to 1.0830.
*USoil dropped sharply to $70.60 per barrel from $4.18 high yesterday. Oil prices declined as concerns about potential Israeli strikes on Iranian energy facilities eased. Oil and energy shares dropped after reports indicated Israel does not intend to target Iranian oil or nuclear sites.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 17th October 2024.

Stocks steady ahead of ECB, BTC Up, Oil below $70.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Asia & European Sessions:

*Wall Street, Treasuries, the US Dollar, and Gold all gained yesterday amid a variety of factors. Earnings beats, rate cut expectations, growth concerns, geopolitical risks, some stability in oil all contributed. The market continues to price for -25 bp rate cuts in November and December.
*The Dow bounced 0.79% to 43,077 to its 38th record high of the year. Financials helped pace after more earnings beats, this time from JPM. Weakness in some tech shares, including ASML, limited the advance in the S&P500 and NASDAQ.
*Asian shares predominantly rose today following stronger-than-expected earnings reports from major companies like Morgan Stanley and United Airlines. Chinese markets lost momentum after a press briefing on the property market failed to announce significant stimulus measures.
*European stocks are expected to have a lackluster opening as traders await a decision from the ECB regarding monetary policy.
*The rally in Chinese shares lost momentum after a press briefing on the property market failed to announce significant stimulus measures. The CSI 300 in China reversed a rally of up to 1.3% after officials revealed plans to expand support for “white list” projects to 4 trillion yuan ($562 billion) from the previously deployed 2.23 trillion yuan.
*ECB Preview: with headline inflation below target and signs that services price inflation has peaked, the ECB’s focus has switched from inflation risks to growth concerns. The flurry of comments from ECB officials over the past week have pretty much confirmed that Lagarde will deliver another 25 bp cut on Thursday. We expect the ECB to cut again in December, although the central bank head may once again stop short of committing to another move just yet. Even if the ECB cuts rates by a further 50 bp this year, policy settings will remain restrictive and the “end-rate” of the current easing cycle is likely to be higher than markets expected initially and clearly above the low point of the last easing cycle. That will likely keep bonds volatile.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex climbed to 103.55, a third straight session over 103 and is up 3 handles from the 100.79 close on September 30. The rally broken the 200-day SMA.
*Oil dipped below the $70.00 per barrel. Energy prices have generally been influenced by oil market fluctuations, particularly as fears diminish over potential Israeli attacks on Iranian oil facilities, which could disrupt exports to China and other regions. Additionally, concerns about demand strength amid China’s economic slowdown have impacted oil prices.
*Bitcoin rallied with markets viewing the climb as a sign that markets anticipate a victory for pro-crypto Republican candidate Donald Trump in the US presidential election.
*Gold rose to $2685 per ounce.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 18th October 2024.

Global Markets Steady as China’s Economic Data Surprises, Gold Hits New Record.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

As the US economy continues to show resilience, traders further reduced their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in the remaining meetings of 2024. Strong US retail sales data for September exceeded forecasts, highlighting sustained consumer spending, which is powering economic growth.

Asia & European Sessions:

*A rally in risk and some unwinding of haven trades hit Treasuries.
*A stronger than expected September retail sales report weighed on Treasuries at it furthered expectations the FOMC will reduce rates at a more moderate pace into year end. And it added to prospects the Fed may only cut one more time this year with the November implied rate at -22 bps and the December contract at -41 bps.
*Asia equities rose earlier today as the central bank introduced new lending programs to boost corporate share buybacks and equity purchases. However Chinese equities edged down after official data showed slowing economic growth at 4.6% in the Q3 from 4.7% in Q2, underscoring investor uncertainty over government stimulus measures first announced in September.
*Netflix reported net income of $2.36 billion, roughly 6% above Wall Street predictions. Netflix saw a stronger-than-anticipated revenue boost in the latest quarter, alongside solid subscriber (5.1mln) growth, even with fewer blockbuster releases.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex climbed to 103.60,supported by widening rate and growth differentials. The downshift in expectations on Fed cuts, this week’s easing, albeit cautious, from the ECB, the chance for an aggressive -50 bp easing from the BoC, and the unwinding of BoJ rate hike outlooks have been supportive.
*The USDJPY broke to 150 level, the best since the end of July. It could rally further given the less dovish view on the Fed and if there are no signs of MoF intervention.
*The GBPUSD has stabilized and firmed slightly to 1.3060, but is largely recovering from the drop to 1.2990 which is the weakest since mid-August.
The EURUSD has slumped to 1.0807 and is the weakest since the end of July. Concurrently, USDCAD has risen to 1.3795, the highest since early August.
*Gold prices hit a record high, extending a long-running bullish trend as investors sought safe-haven assets. Gold spot prices rose to $2,713. The rise in gold prices, fueled by inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, has been consistent since late 2022.
*Bitcoin also saw gains, rising to $68,350, with some investors viewing it as a hedge similar to gold.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 21st October 2024.

Gold at historic high, US equities nearly at record high!

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Asia & European Sessions:

*Global financial markets are being influenced by the health of the US & Chinese economies, alongside the impact of Middle East conflicts and broader geopolitical concerns.Chinese banks’ decision to lower lending rates follows a series of government measures aimed at spurring economic growth and stabilizing the housing market.
*Wall Street finished in the green on the day and for the week. Earnings beats added to signs of a strong economy and a pick up in big tech to boost the major averages.
*The Dow rallied another 0.09% to 43,275 for its 39th record high of the year. The S&P500 was 0.40% higher at 5864, its 47th peak for 2024.
*Asian markets showed mixed performance as investors awaited new catalysts for trading.
*Gold surged to a record high, $2732, with silver, palladium, and platinum also rising, driven by rising demand amid Middle East tensions and positioning ahead of the upcoming US presidential election.
*Oil prices ticked higher after sharp declines the previous week, as concerns eased over potential Israeli strikes on Iranian oil facilities in retaliation for a missile attack earlier in the month. Iran, a major crude producer, plays a key role in global exports, particularly to China. Lingering concerns over China’s demand have also weighed on oil prices.
*Big week ahead with: BoC rate decision, lots of ECB & Fed Speeches, global PMIs, US retail sales, earnings from Tesla, Verizon, Coca-Cola, IBM and Amazon.

As the US election approaches, investors are positioning themselves for potential outcomes, with odds leaning toward a Trump victory and Republican control of Congress. Traders are reviving bets on assets that performed well after Trump’s 2016 win, particularly focusing on the impact of potential policies like increased trade tariffs.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex pulled back to 103.40.
*The USDJPY fell to 149.07, as the Yen strengthened for a 2nd day against the US Dollar, as traders positioned for Japan’s parliamentary election on Sunday. Polls suggest that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito coalition could fall below the 233-seat majority threshold.
*Oil prices closed in the red, testing $68.69 per barrel before closing -1.8% lower at $69.37 per barrel and the weakest of the month, largely on supply concerns.
*Bitcoin neared $70,000 today, supported by strong inflows into ETFs ($2.4 bln) and optimism regarding US regulatory developments for the largest digital asset.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 22nd October 2024.

Stocks’ rally ran out of steam?

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Asia & European Sessions:

*A number of factors weighed on Treasuries and EGBs, but the underlying element was inflation anxiety. Several factors, including concerns over bond supply and stronger US economic data, are contributing to the bond selloff.
*The resilience of the US economy, diminishing expectations for Fed rate cuts, the bounce in Oil prices, the acceleration in rate cut prospects from the BoC, BoE, and ECB, fears of fiscal largess, and the massive stimulus from China all added to the likelihood price pressures could remain sticky.
*Wall Street was mixed in relatively quiet action.
*Additionally, traders are betting on the risk of a Republican win in the US election, which could lead to looser fiscal policy and increased tariffs under Donald Trump, potentially worsening the federal deficit and stoking inflation.
*Asian equities declined for a 2nd consecutive day, along with bonds, as traders reassessed cooling expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. This followed a decline in US equities after a strong run-up to all-time highs.
*Australian and New Zealand bonds also fell.
*Investors in Japan pulled back ahead of the upcoming general election on Sunday, with stocks, bonds, and the Yen all declining simultaneously amid polls suggesting the ruling coalition could lose its majority.
*The Nikkei dropped 1.4%, reaching its lowest level since early October.
*Gold rose to $2,733.41 in Asia, following Monday’s record high of $2,740.59. Gold has surged nearly 30% this year, hitting successive all-time highs, with momentum accelerating as the Fed pivoted to cutting rates. Hedge funds have been increasing net-long positions in gold, and ETF inflows have also contributed to the rally. Traders are also adjusting portfolios ahead of the US election on Nov. 5, with gold seen as a safe bet during times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex hit a multi-month high, largely on the less dovish view on Fed policy and reached 104.00, the first time at that level since late July.
*The USDJPY rallied to 151 for the first time since July.
*Oil prices increased 1.9% to $70.54 per barrel.
*Gold relinquished another new high at $2740.59 before closing down -0.02% at $2720.85 per ounce.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

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Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 23rd October 2024.

XAGUSD: Increased retail demand sends silver prices soaring

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Silver maintained its recent gains to around $34.8 per ounce on Tuesday, holding at its highest level in nearly 12 years as uncertainty surrounding the US election, Middle East tensions and bets on further monetary easing fuelled safe-haven demand for the precious metal.

Expectations of stronger industrial demand for silver, which is a key component used in solar panels, as the world shifts to cleaner energy, also boosted prices. In addition, top metals consumer China has recently introduced a series of stimulus measures to revive economic growth. Earlier this week, the People’s Bank of China cut its one- and five-year lending rates by 25 basis points to 3.1% and 3.6% respectively. On Friday, the PBOC also moved to support Chinese equity markets and announced that it may lower bank reserve requirements again before the year ends.

The main catalyst behind the recent rally has been rising retail demand for silver, which has become an attractive asset for investors seeking protection against ongoing changes in monetary policy.

As global central banks signal a shift towards a more accommodative stance, investors are increasingly looking at silver as a cost-effective hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. This trend is particularly evident in the context of silver’s price performance relative to gold.

While gold recently reached a record high of $2,748 per ounce, silver is still well below its all-time high of $49.78, reached in April 2011, indicating further appreciation potential. Investor sentiment has also been supported by recent developments in China, where authorities have imposed aggressive monetary measures aimed at revitalising the economy. These measures are expected to stimulate economic activity, which is likely to boost actual demand for silver and other industrial metals in the coming months.

Demand for gold and silver as a store of value was also strong, due to expectations that whoever wins the US presidential election next month, fiscal spending will rise and increase the budget deficit. Moreover, dovish comments from ECB President Lagarde on Tuesday were bullish for the precious metal, when she said the direction of interest rate movements in the Eurozone is clear.

From a technical perspective, XAGUSD has successfully broken the resistance line of the bullish pennant pattern, confirming the positive implications of this technical setup. The current bullish trajectory suggests that silver could reach the FE100% projection level of $36 from the $11.63 – $30.07 and $17.b54 drawdowns. The move above the 52-week EMA informs that the ongoing bullish trend might last even longer, as long as the $32.49 resistance that is now switching to function as support holds. Given the current dynamics, the outlook for silver is still bullish.

The possibility of a short-term correction, however, remains valid due to profit-taking.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Ady Phangestu
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 24th October 2024.

Mixed earnings, Stocks rebound, Dollar in a pull back.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Asia & European Sessions:

*Treasuries extend losses on anxieties and uncertainties, rise in yields hits stocks. Election jitters remain prominent, along with geopolitical worries.
*Wall Street was hammered also as some earnings disappointed, and bad news from some tech companies. An E. coli outbreak at McDonald’s also impacted.
*Expectations for deficit financing no matter who wins the election, and the concomitant surge in debt are further exacerbating inflation fears. A tepid 20-year auction added to the market’s woes.
*Fed’s Beige Book showed moderate growth and prices, decent labor market. US existing home sales fell -1.0% to 3.840 mln rate.
*Bank of Canada cut its overnight target rate by -50 bps to 3.75%, as widely expected. This is a 4th straight cut and ties the lowest rate since October 2022. While the statement indicated the timing and pace of future action will be guided by data, it was also indicated that more cuts are likely if the economy evolves as expected. The jumbo-sized cut is meant to boost growth and keep CPI close to 2%.
*Eurozone Composite PMI lifted to 2-month high of 49.7 in October from 49.6 in the previous month. German data actually came in somewhat better than expected, while French reports disappointed. The marginal improvement in the headline still leaves the Composite PMI in contraction territory, with new orders falling for a fifth consecutive month and at a similar pace as in September.
*UK October flash services PMI 51.8 vs 52.4 expected.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The NASDAQ lost -1.60%, with the S&P500 tumbling -0.92%, while the Dow slid -0.96%.
*The USDIndex hit 104.40, breaking the April-June support which turned into a key Resistance level. It rallied against all G10 peers.
*The USDJPY closed at 152.70 after paring its jump to 153.185, the highest since July amid risk the LDP and coalition partner Komeito could lose their majority at the weekend general election.
*The USDCAD settled back to 1.3825 after the BoC’s jumbo -50 bp cut and dovish guidance.
*Oil prices increased 1.9% to $70.54 per barrel.
*Gold fell -1.19% to $2716.17 per ounce after several fresh record highs.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 25th October 2024.

UK Debt Set To Rise: How Will the GBP React?

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*The UK Chancellor looks to change Fiscal Policy in order to allow the UK to borrow 70 million GBP more.
*The IMF increases its forecast for the UK economy to recover this year from 0.7% to 1.1%. UK PMI data underachieved on Thursday.
*The NASDAQ increases 0.55% as Tesla’s latest earnings data increase shareholder sentiment.
*The US Dollar Index retraces after increasing in value for 4 consecutive weeks.

GBPUSD – UK To Change Fiscal Policy To Increase Debt Levels!

The GBPUSD exchange rate trades slightly lower during this morning’s asian session but looks to be regaining momentum. In addition to this, the GBPUSD continues to remain below most Moving Averages despite the upward price movement on Thursday. The downward price movement on Thursday was largely due to a decline in the US Dollar and not necessarily the Pound strengthening. For this week, the British Pound has fallen 0.65% against the currency market and traders will closely watch the Pound’s reaction to the UK’s Autumn budget.

The US Dollar is the best performing currency of the past 7 days and is the best performing of the day so far. The US Dollar continues to be supported by significant economic data. This includes the Weekly Unemployment Claims which fell to 227,000, New Home Sales rising to 738,000 and Flash PMI data reading slightly higher than previous expectations.

The Beige Book made public yesterday indicates that economic activity remained steady in September 2024. However, companies reported a modest uptick in hiring, a general easing of inflation pressures, and input costs rising faster than sales prices, which impacted business profitability. Lastly, the Federal Reserve continues to support the US Dollar as the market predicts a 0.25% rate cut.

The Bank of England on the other hand are likely to cut interest rates at the next meeting but it is not clear whether the BoE will cut 0.25% or 0.50%. Meanwhile, investors are watching the Autumn budget set for October 30th with a close eye. The UK Chancellor is looking to change Fiscal Policy in order to allow the UK to borrow 70 million GBP more. This could be a challenge and if global investors are not comfortable with the risk, this could pressure the Pound. This is something also previously seen under the Truss administration, but economists do not expect such a sharp nosedive. Lastly, yesterday’s UK PMI data for both the Services and Manufacturing sectors fell lower than the previous month and lower than current expectations.

However, if the price of the GBPUSD continues to decline, where does technical analysis point to a trigger point? As the price retraces back to the previous swing high, traders will look for the price to regain momentum before speculating a decline. The latest bullish swing measures 0.14%. Therefore if the price falls below 1.29618, investors will consider the momentum an opportunity. This will also push the price back below the 200-bar SMA on the 5-Minute Chart.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.