HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 17th December 2024.

GBPUSD: Strong UK Data Fuels Expectations of BoE Hawkishness!

Trading Leveraged Producys is Risky

*UK salaries increased to 5.2%, up from 4.3% the previous month and significantly higher than analysts’ expectations.
*Analysts expect the Bank of England to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday. Higher UK salaries to prompt a hawkish BoE.
*The Great British Pound Index trades 0.13% higher this morning as the UK only adds 300 unemployment claims.
*The Australian Dollar loses gains from Monday’s trading session. The AUD and NZD are the day’s worst performing currencies so far.
*Traders continue to expect 0.25% by the Federal Reserve. The USD remains pressured while stocks rise.

GBPUSD - Strong Employment Data for the UK Boosts GBP Demand!

The GBPUSD is trading 0.21% higher as we edge closer to the London open. Traders should note that the price of the GBPUSD rose almost 0.30% as the UK’s employment data was made public. Prior to this the exchange rate was trading 0.10% lower. The upward price movement this week is primarily related to the upcoming Bank of England interest rate decision where investors believe the BoE will vote for a pause.

After the release of the UK’s employment data for November the chances of a pause have increased. The UK’s Unemployment Claimant Count Change saw only 300 more unemployed individuals making claims. This is the lowest Claimant Count Change since June 2023. In addition to this, the UK’s Quarterly Average Salary Index rose to 5.2%, 0.6% higher than the previous month. The announcement will further prompt the BoE to take a more hawkish stance and less adjustments in the upcoming quarter.

The hawkishness of the Bank of England is one of the reasons the GBP has performed well in the past 24 hours. Although, the expected upcoming Federal Reserve 0.25% cut is also supporting the GBPUSD. However, if the Federal Reserve decides to make a shock decision and not cut interest rates, the GBPUSD could quickly decline. Most analysts believe the Federal Reserve will adjust 0.25%, but most have not completely withdrawn the possibility of a pause after the US increase rose to 2.7%.

GBPUSD - Technical Analysis and Upcoming News

On a 2-hour timeframe, the GBPUSD is trading with a slight bullish bias as the price is trading above the 75-Bar EMA and the RSI’s neutral level but below the 100-Bar SMA. In order for the GBPUSD to witness strong bullish signals ideally today’s US Retail Sales data will read lower than expected and the Fed will announce its 0.25% cut. If the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates, the GBPUSD could correct back down to 1.26075. Otherwise, the Cable could rise to the previous price rate which saw an average price at 1.27464.

The significant economic release for the next 24-hours will be the US Retail Sales this afternoon. Analysts expect Retail Sales for the US to rise 0.6% MoM and the Core Retail Sales 0.4%. Tomorrow morning traders' attention will turn to the UK’s inflation rate. Analysts expect the UK inflation rate to increase from 2.3% to 2.6%, the highest since April 2024 but not significantly higher than the BoE’s target of 2.00%.

Gold and the US Dollar

Gold's price has also significantly declined over the past 2 days which may give the interpretation of a hawkish Fed. Individuals trading the GBPUSD are also closely monitoring the price of Gold and the US Dollar Index for clarity and confirmation of their signals.

However, the market is undergoing a local correction: according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) report, net speculative positions in gold rose significantly last week, reaching 275.6 thousand compared to 259.7 thousand the previous week. Investors are actively increasing long positions, anticipating further price growth. Therefore, order flow analysts in Gold are also potentially indicating a 0.25% cut in interest rates.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 18th December 2024.

UK Inflation Climbs: All Eyes on the Fed’s Next Move!

Trading Leveraged Producys is Risky

*US Retail Sales increase by 0.7% in November surpassing expectations of +0.6%.
*The US Dollar Index rose in value on Tuesday after starting the day with a bearish price gap. This week the US Dollar Index trades sideways as traders await the Fed’s rate decision.
*The Federal Reserve will confirm their rate decision this evening with most experts expecting a 0.25% adjustment.
*The UK’s inflation rate increases from 2.3% to 2.6% meeting the market’s previous expectations. The GBP quickly increases in value against all currencies.
*Analysts expect the Bank of England to pause but expect at least 2 monetary policy members to vote for a rate cut.

GBPUSD - Both The Fed and BoE Are Scheduled To Announce Their Interest Rate Decisions!

The GBPUSD rose up to 0.40% in value on Tuesday before slightly retracing and closing the day with a 0.21% gain. The increase in value is primarily due to the UK’s employment data which shows signs of stability and salary growth. The Bank of England is concerned the growth in salaries will continue to provide support for inflation. As a result, the BoE will likely pause in today’s rate decision.

During this morning's Asian session, the GBP saw a sudden bullish spike after the UK made public its inflation rate. The UK’s inflation rate increased from 2.3% to 2.6% which is an 8 month high. The higher rate of inflation along with high salary growth is likely to prompt the Bank of England to keep the rate unchanged at tomorrow’s meeting and for the upcoming months thereafter.

During this morning's Asian session, the GBP saw a sudden bullish spike after the UK made public its inflation rate. The UK’s inflation rate increased from 2.3% to 2.6% which is an 8 month high. The higher rate of inflation along with high salary growth is likely to prompt the Bank of England to keep the rate unchanged at tomorrow’s meeting and for the upcoming months thereafter.

October's labor market data, which came in positive, continues to improve sentiment towards the Pound and UK. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, employment rose by 173,000 instead of the expected drop of 12,000. Average wages, both with and without bonuses, grew by 5.2%, beating forecasts of 4.6% and 5.0%, respectively.

On Tuesday, the GBP rose in value against the US Dollar, Swiss Franc and the Euro, but fell in value against the JPY. During this morning’s Asian session, the GBP is increasing in value against all currencies except against the Euro. However, traders will monitor if the GBP is able to maintain momentum against the US Dollar.

Bank of England Supporting The GBP!

As inflation in the UK over the past 3 years rose to a level substantially higher than the US and the Eurozone, the Bank of England is aiming to cut interest rates at a slower pace. The UK’s inflation peak was at 11.1%, the US inflation peak was 2% lower and the EU 0.5% lower. As a result, the GBP is maintaining its value and has been supported by this factor over the past 2 days.

All experts currently believe the Bank of England will keep its base rate at 4.75% and cut rates at a slower pace than the Federal Reserve. However, investors believe that of the 9 members within the Monetary Policy Committee, 2 will vote for a rate cut. If more than 2 vote to cut rates, the Pound may come under short term pressure.

Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve is due to make a decision on the Federal Fund Rate. Currently, the market believes the FOMC will vote to adjust rates by 0.25%. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates there is a 95% chance of the Federal Reserve opting to cut to 4.25-4.50% and the slightly lower bond yields also indicate a cut.

However, when taking into consideration the rise in consumer and producer inflation, resilient employment sector and yesterday’s strong retail sales data, the possibility of a pause remains. The US Retail Sales increased by 0.7% in November surpassing expectations of +0.6%. The increase was the strongest in 4 months, however, Core Retail Sales only rose by 0.2%.

One of the main elements which traders will be monitoring is if the Fed will indicate 2 or 3 cuts. Currently, the market is pricing in another 2 rate cuts. If the Chairman, Mr Powell, indicates the central bank could cut up to 3 times, the US Dollar is likely to come under pressure.

Some traders fear that the Fed may suggest a full pause in the easing cycle or a significant slowdown in 2025. This concern has arisen because of inflation and newly elected US President Donald Trump's trade tariff policies on imports. If traders sense this hawkish tone within the Chairman’s Press Conference this evening, the US Dollar could see significant gains. Particularly as this will trigger higher bond yields which are already trading close to 6 month highs.

For further information on the Federal Reserve and Bank of England’s rate decision traders can join HFM’s Live Analysis on YouTube (Today at 12:00 GMT).

GBPUSD - Technical Analysis

In terms of technical analysis, the GBPUSD maintains its slightly bullish bias as per yesterday’s market analysis article. However, even though the price has risen since yesterday, the GBPUSD has yet to hit the 1.27464 level mentioned earlier. The price movement will depend strongly on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and the guidance they provide for the upcoming 1-2 quarters.

If the GBPUSD is able to maintain bullish price movement and rise again back up to the day’s high (1.27264), the exchange rate may maintain its buy indications from Moving Averages, RSI and price action.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 19th December 2024.

Federal Reserve Sparks NASDAQ’s Sharpest Selloff of 2024!

Trading Leveraged Producys is Risky

The NASDAQ fell more than 3.60% after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, but gave hawkish comments. The stock market saw its largest decline witnessed in 2024 so far, as investors opted to cash in profits and not risk in the short-medium term. What did Chairman Powell reveal, and how does it impact the NASDAQ?

The NASDAQ Falls To December Lows After Fed Guidance!

The NASDAQ and US stock market in general saw a considerable decline after the press conference of the Federal Reserve. The USA100 ended the day 3.60% lower and saw only 1 of its 100 stocks avoid a decline. Of the most influential stocks the worst performers were Tesla (-8.28%), Broadcom (-6.91%) and Amazon (-4.60%).

When monitoring the broader stock market, similar conditions are seen confirming the investor sentiment is significantly lower and not solely related to the tech industry. The worst performing sectors are the housing and banking sectors. However, investors should also note that the decline was partially due to a build-up of profits over the past months. As a result, investors could easily sell and reduce exposure to cash in profits and lower their risk appetite.

Analysts note that despite the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, the Chairman provided a positive outlook. He highlighted optimism for the economy and the employment sector. Therefore, many analysts continue to believe that investors will buy the dip, even if it’s not imminent.

A Hawkish Federal Reserve And Powell’s Guidance

Even though traditional economics suggests a rate cut benefits the stock market, the market had already priced in the cut. As a result, the rate cut could no longer influence prices. Investors are now focusing on how the Federal Reserve plans to cut in 2025. This is what triggered the selloff and the decline.

Investors were looking for indications of 3-4 rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 and for the first cut to be in March. However, analysts advise that the forward guidance by the Chairman, Jerome Powell, clearly indicates 2 rate adjustments. In addition to this, analysts believe the Fed will now cut next in May 2025.

The average expectation now is that the Federal Reserve will cut 0.25% on two occasions in 2025. The Fed also advised that it is too early to know the effect of tariffs and “when the path is uncertain, you go slower”. This added to the hawkish tone of the central bank. However, surveys indicate that 15% of analysts believe the Federal Reserve will be forced into cutting rates at a faster pace.

As a result, the US Dollar Index rose 1.25% and Bond Yields to a 7-month high. For investors, this makes other investment categories more attractive and stocks more expensive for foreign investors. However, the average decline the NASDAQ has seen before investors buy the dip is 13% ($19,320). This will also be a key level for investors if the NASDAQ continues to decline.

NASDAQ - Technical Analysis

Due to the bearish volatility, the price of the NASDAQ is trading below all major Moving Averages and Oscillators on the 2-Hour chart. After retracement the oscillators are no longer indicating an oversold price and continue to point to a bearish bias. Sell indications are likely to strengthen if the price declines below $21,222.60 in the short-term.

Key Takeaways:

*A hawkish Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% and indicates only 2 rate cuts in 2025!
*The stock market witnesses its worst day of 2024 due to the Fed’s hawkish forward guidance. Economists do not expect a rate cut before May 2025.
*Housing and bank stocks fell more than 4%. Investors are cashing in their gains and not looking to risk while the Fed is unlikely to cut again until May 2025.
*The US Dollar Index rises close to its highest level since November 2022. US Bond Yields also rise to their highest since May 2024.
*The NASDAQ’s average decline in 2024 before investors opt to purchase the dip is 13%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 20th December 2024.

BOE Sees More Support For Rate Cuts As USD Strengthens!

Trading Leveraged Producys is Risky

The US Dollar continues to rise in value after obtaining further support from positive economic and employment data. However, the hawkish Federal Reserve continues to support the currency. On the other hand, the Great British Pound comes under significant strain. Why is the GBPUSD declining?

GBPUSD - Why is the GBPUSD Declining?

The GBPUSD is witnessing bullish price movement for three primary reasons. The first is the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy, the second is the positive US news releases from yesterday and the third is the votes from the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee.

Even though the Bank of England chose to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.75%, the number of votes to cut indicates dovishness in the upcoming months. Previously, traders were expecting the BoE to remain cautious due to inflation rising to 2.6% and positive employment data. In addition to this, the Retail Sales data from earlier this morning only rose 0.2%, lower than expectations adding pressure to GBP.

Investors also should note that the two currencies did not conflict and price action was driven by both an increasing USD and a declining GBP. The US Dollar rose in value against all currencies, except for the Swiss Franc, against which it saw a slight decline. The GBP fell against all currencies, except for the GBPJPY, which ended higher solely due to earlier gains.

US Monetary Policy and Macroeconomics

The bullish price movement seen within the US Dollar Index continues to partially be due to its hawkish monetary policy. Particularly, indications from Jerome Powell that the Fed will only cut on two occasions and the first cut will take place in May.

However, in addition to this the economic data from yesterday continues to illustrate a resilient and growing economy. This also supports the Fed’s approach to monetary policy and its efforts to push inflation back to the 2% target. The US GDP rose 3.1% over the past quarter beating expectations of 2.8%. The GDP rate of 3.1% is also higher than the first two quarters of 2024 (1.4% & 3.0%). In addition to this, the US Weekly Unemployment Claims fell from 242,000 to 220,000 and existing home sales rose to 4.15 million. Home sales in the latest month rose to an 8-month high.

For this reason, the US Dollar rose in value against most currencies throughout the day. Analysts believe the US Dollar will continue to perform well due to less frequent rate cuts and tariffs. The US Dollar Index trades 1.65% higher this week.

NASDAQ - Technical Analysis

Due to the bearish volatility, the price of the NASDAQ is trading below all major Moving Averages and Oscillators on the 2-Hour chart. After retracement the oscillators are no longer indicating an oversold price and continue to point to a bearish bias. Sell indications are likely to strengthen if the price declines below $21,222.60 in the short-term.

Bank of England Sees Increased Support for Rate Cuts!

The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged as per market’s previous expectations. The decision is determined by a committee of nine members and at least five of them must vote for a cut for the central bank to proceed. Analysts anticipated only two members voting for a cut, but three did. This signals a dovish tone and increases the likelihood of earlier rate cuts in 2025.

The three members that voted for a rate cut were Dave Ramsden, Swati Dhingra, and Alan Taylor. Advocates for lower rates believe the current policy is too restrictive and risks pushing inflation well below the 2.0% target in the medium term. Meanwhile, supporters of keeping the current monetary policy argue that it's unclear if rising business costs will increase consumer prices, reduce jobs, or slow wage growth.

However, if markets continue to expect a more dovish Bank of England in 2025, the GBP could come under further pressure. In 2024, the GBP was the best performing currency after the US Dollar and outperformed the Euro, Yen and Swiss Franc. This was due to the Bank of England’s reluctance to adjust rates at a similar pace to other central banks.

GBPUSD - Technical Analysis

In terms of the price of the exchange, most analysts believe the GBPUSD will continue to decline so long as the Federal Reserve retains their hawkish tone. The exchange rate continues to form lower swing lows and lower highs. The price trades below most moving averages on the 2-hour timeframe and below the neutral level on oscillators. On the 5-minute timeframe, the price moves back towards the 200-bar SMA, but sell signals may materialise if the price falls back below 1.24894.

Key Takeaways:

*The US Dollar increases in value for a third consecutive day and increases its monthly rise to 2.32%.
*The US Dollar Index was the best performing currency of Thursday’s session, along with the Swiss Franc.
*US Gross Domestic Product rises to 3.1% beating economist’s expectations of 2.8%.
*US Weekly Unemployment Claims read 220,000, 22,000 less than the previous week and lower than expectations.
*The NASDAQ declines further and trades 5.00% lower than the previous lows.
*The GBPUSD ends the day 0.56% lower and falls more than 1% after the Bank of England’s rate decision. Three Members of the BoE vote to cut interest rates.
*The GBP was the worst performing currency of the day along with the Japanese Yen.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.