Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

– 9% of Nigeria's population is aware of the existence of digital assets, surpassing the United States, which has an awareness level of 95%. Of these, 76% have owned or currently own cryptocurrencies, with the most popular coins being bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin, and Dogecoin. The instability of the national currency has driven Nigerians toward the acquisition of digital assets, according to a study by ConsenSys.
Among Nigerian respondents, 70% stated that they understand the fundamental concepts of blockchain technology. They are followed by citizens of South Korea (63%), South Africa (61%), Brazil (59%), and India (56%). Experts note that the level of awareness about this technology is much lower in Europe and the United States compared to African countries. Meanwhile, only half of the surveyed Americans are using digital assets.

– A People's Court in China has declared that cryptocurrency falls under the category of legally protected property. According to the verdict, virtual assets have economic characteristics and should therefore be classified as property that is legally protected.
In light of this, legal experts have put forward a set of measures aimed at combating criminal activities in the realm of cryptocurrency. They have also underscored the need to harmonize criminal and civil laws to address the challenges associated with asset confiscation.

– In a recent Twitter post titled "What's Happening with XRP," Ripple's Chief Technical Officer, David Schwartz, suggested that this particular altcoin could become the global reserve currency. According to Schwartz, a significant portion of the world has already moved away from the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency. Every nation would prefer its own currency to take this position and would not want a rival country's currency to do so. Schwartz believes that this situation could lead to the world transitioning to a digital currency like XRP, which is not controlled by geopolitical competitors.

– The artificial intelligence platform PricePredictions has calculated a projected bitcoin price of $26,228 for September 30. The forecast is based on several key technical indicators, including Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Relative Strength Index (RSI), Bollinger Bands (BB), among others.

– In a TradingView publication, an analyst using the pseudonym Tolberti has indicated that the recent fluctuations in bitcoin's price could serve as the year's "bull trap." Tolberti notes that a "Head and Shoulders" pattern, typically a bearish indicator, appears to be forming on the current BTC chart.
Additionally, Tolberti cites several key metrics that bolster his bearish outlook. A particularly telling indicator is bitcoin trading below its 200-week moving average (MA), which is traditionally a sign of extended bearish sentiment. He suggests that bitcoin's value might plummet to $10,000, with a potential market turnaround perhaps occurring as late as March 2024.

– Alistair Milne, the Chief Investment Officer of the digital currency fund Altana, believes that the price of bitcoin could reach $100,000 without the approval of spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the United States. In his view, the ETF topic merely distracts market participants. It's worth noting that in June, when BlackRock and several traditional financial organizations submitted ETF applications to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the flagship cryptocurrency experienced its most significant growth in over a year, surpassing the $30,000 mark. However, this upward momentum was short-lived.
Milne is confident that issues in the U.S. banking sector, stabilization of risk assets following the completion of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and increasing profitability in the crypto-mining sector will drive bitcoin's price upward.

– According to analysts at Cointelegraph, the value of "digital gold" could experience a significant drop in the coming weeks. This forecast is based on the bearish trends emerging in bitcoin derivatives. The BTC price chart leaves little doubt that investor sentiment has not improved following Grayscale's victory over the SEC on August 29, 2023. Consequently, experts anticipate that the leading cryptocurrency's value could decline to $22,000 in the near future.
Cointelegraph analysts believe that the delay in launching spot Bitcoin ETFs has left a negative impact on the market. Furthermore, many experts link market troubles to the U.S. regulatory actions against exchanges like Binance and Coinbase. Multiple sources suggest that the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) is likely to level charges against the world's largest trading platform and initiate a criminal investigation, focusing on allegations related to money laundering and violation of sanctions against Russian companies.
Currently, market participants are in a state of limbo, unsure of what to expect. This regulatory uncertainty is tipping the scales in favour of the bears. Fear and doubt reign in the derivatives market, creating favourable conditions for those betting on a decline.

– Renowned blogger and analyst Lark Davis has stated that the bitcoin halving scheduled for April 2024 could lead to a 500-600% increase in the cryptocurrency's price, potentially pushing it to around $150,000 or even $180,000. According to additional data from the expert, the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs could attract about $20-30 billion in "new money." Davis asserts that this influx of capital would allow investors to purchase nearly half of all circulating bitcoin on centralized global exchanges (CEX).
Lark Davis also shared a chart comparing the price trajectory of physical gold. He noted that when the first ETF for the precious metal was approved in the U.S. markets, its price initially dipped. However, it subsequently rallied, adding over 110% to its peak value. Davis opined that a similar scenario could unfold for bitcoin.

– At the end of August, the monthly chart for digital gold indicated an exit from the overbought zone according to the Stochastic Oscillator, signalling potential disappointment for bitcoin bulls. This observation was made by experts at Fairlead Strategies. According to the analysts, such a signal often indicates the passing of a local peak. They pointed out that similar scenarios occurred under comparable circumstances at the end of 2017 and the beginning of 2021.
"The decline in the Stochastic Oscillator suggests that the process of establishing a bottom could be prolonged, especially considering the looming Ichimoku cloud serving as resistance (~$31,900)," the report stated.

– Popular analyst and crypto-millionaire William Clemente has stated that interest in the crypto industry has significantly waned recently. According to his observations, the total trading volume of digital assets has dropped to its lowest levels since 2020. Additionally, based on Google search statistics, people are searching for information on bitcoin and cryptocurrencies far less frequently, reaching multi-year lows.
Clemente also highlighted another sign of market participants' apathy. According to him, indicators for realized and implied volatility, as well as the Bollinger Bands' divergence on a weekly timeframe, are near record lows.
Another well-known trader and analyst going by the pseudonym DonAlt concurred with Clemente. He noted that this is precisely what failure looks like but ironically emphasized that there's no turning back now.

– Trader, analyst, and founder of venture firm Eight, Michael Van De Poppe, noted that the markets appear unstable and are generating many doubts. Bitcoin's dominance level is starting to decline, and the majority of altcoins in trading pairs with BTC are beginning to regain their positions. This signifies interest in this asset class rather than a lack of it. Van De Poppe emphasized that this traditionally occurs 8-10 months before a BTC halving.

– Arthur Hayes, co-founder of the crypto exchange BitMEX, stated that bitcoin has been in a bullish trend since March 2023 and is expected to experience a new surge over the next 6-12 months. Hayes believes that the uptrend was triggered by the Federal Reserve's $25 billion banking sector stabilization program in light of the "rescue" of Silicon Valley Bank. According to Hayes, this situation has prompted traders to focus on assets with limited supply, like bitcoin. While this currently only involves a small portion of market participants, their numbers will continue to grow, he is convinced.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Forex | Forex Trading | NordFX

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 11 - 15, 2023​

EUR/USD: September 13 and 14 - Key Days of the Week

For the eighth consecutive week, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is rising, while EUR/USD is declining. The currency pair has retreated to levels last seen three months ago, settling in the 1.0700 zone. It was only the dollar bulls starting to lock in accumulated gains on Friday, September 8, that prevented further declines.

The fundamental backdrop continues to favour the U.S. currency. Business activity, as measured by the Services PMI, shows consistent growth; it rose from 52.7 to 54.5 against a forecast of 52.5. Additionally, data released on September 8th indicated that the U.S. labour market is performing at least adequately. The number of initial jobless claims came in at 216K, lower than both the forecast of 234K and the previous figure of 229K.

On the same day, European statistics appeared decidedly weak. For instance, in Q2, the EU economy grew by a mere 0.1%, despite Q1 growth and market expectations being at 0.3%. In annual terms, with a forecast of 0.6%, the actual growth rate was also lower at 0.5%. Germany's industrial production volume decreased by -0.8% in July, compared to a forecast decline of -0.5%. Meanwhile, despite efforts to reduce it, inflation in Germany remains stable. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) published on Friday, September 8, stayed at 0.3% month-over-month (m/m) and 6.4% year-over-year (y/y).

According to many analysts, the European Central Bank (ECB) finds itself in a predicament. On one hand, to combat inflation, interest rates need to be raised; on the other hand, to assist the economy, they should be lowered. It is quite possible that in its meeting on Thursday, September 14, the regulator will take a pause and leave the key interest rate unchanged at 4.25%. Currently, the likelihood of such a decision is estimated at 35%.

As for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve scheduled for September 20th, market participants are confident that the regulator will also leave interest rates unchanged. However, the reason in this case is different. While the Eurozone teeters on the edge of recession and stagflation, the U.S. is undergoing a "soft landing." As assured by John C. Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, "monetary policy is in a good place." Of course, the balance could tip one way or the other after inflation data for the United States becomes available on Wednesday, September 13.

That said, a pause in September does not mean the end of the monetary tightening cycle. According to CME FedWatch, the odds of a 25 basis point (b.p.) rate hike in November are at 37%. Even if this hike doesn't materialize, it is unlikely to harm the dollar. Much of the negative sentiment is already priced into the USD, as markets have long been betting on a recession in the U.S. economy and a corresponding easing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Now, it has become clear that a dovish shift is unlikely, and the key interest rate will, at a minimum, remain at the peak level of 5.5% for an extended period.

EUR/USD pair began its descent from a high of 1.1275 eight weeks ago, on July 18, ending the past trading week at 1.0699, shedding 576 points. As of the evening of September 8, when this review was written, 45% of experts predict a rise for the pair in the near term, another 45% foresee a decline, and 10% hold a neutral stance. Regarding technical analysis, nothing has changed over the past week. All trend indicators and oscillators on the D1 timeframe continue to be 100% in favor of the U.S. currency and are coloured red. However, already 30% of the most recent indicators signal the pair is oversold. Immediate support for the pair is located around 1.0680, followed by 1.0620-1.0635, 1.0515-1.0525, 1.0480, 1.0370, and 1.0255. Bulls will encounter resistance around 1.0730-1.0745, followed by 1.0780-1.0800, 1.0835-1.0865, 1.0895-1.0925, 1.0985, 1.1045, 1.1090-1.1110, 1.1150-1.1170, 1.1230, and 1.1275-1.1290.

It's essential to note Wednesday, September 13 in the calendar for the upcoming week, when consumer inflation data (CPI) for the U.S. will be released. On Thursday, September 14, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its decision on interest rates. Of course, the subsequent central bank leadership press conference will also be of great interest. On the same day, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. will traditionally be published, along with retail sales data and the Producer Price Index (PPI) for the country.

GBP/USD: Peak Rate Continues to Lower

At present, the central question for many central banks, including the Bank of England (BoE), is what takes precedence: taming inflation or preventing the economy from slipping into recession? Indeed, the British economy seems to be heading in the latter direction. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the country's manufacturing sector in August stood at a mere 43.0, with the headline PMI dropping to a 39-month low. According to recent data, the PMI in the services sector has declined to 49.5, dipping below the 50.0 threshold into contraction territory for the first time since January.

So, what about inflation? Although the annual inflation rate in the UK decreased from 7.9% to 6.8% (the lowest since February 2022), it remains the highest among G7 countries. Moreover, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained at 6.9% year-over-year, only 0.2% below the peak set two months earlier.

According to the latest survey conducted by the Bank of England's Monthly Decision Maker Panel (DMP) on Thursday, September 7th, British businesses anticipate that the CPI will decline to 4.8% year-over-year within the next year. It is worth noting that the regulator itself aims to bring the CPI closer to 5.0% by the end of this year.

Surveys indicate that under the current circumstances, the country's leadership is prioritizing economic salvation over the battle against inflation. Huw Pill, the Bank of England's Chief Economist, stated that while there is no room for complacency concerning inflation, he would prefer to keep the interest rate stable for a longer period. He added that in the upcoming BoE meeting on September 21, he will vote to maintain the rate at its current level of 5.25%.

According to Reuters, markets are currently pricing in an 85% likelihood that the BoE's final interest rate, after one or two hikes by year's end, will be 5.75%. This projection is significantly lower than July's, when a peak rate of 6.5% was anticipated. It is worth noting that the future 5.75% for the pound is just 25 basis points higher than the current 5.50% for the dollar, a gap that clearly does not favour the British currency. Moreover, the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate could potentially rise by an additional 25-50 basis points.

GBP/USD closed last week at a rate of 1.2465. Economists from Singapore's United Overseas Bank Limited (UOB) anticipate that the pair may test strong support at the 1.2400 level over the next 1-3 weeks. However, they believe that short-term oversold conditions could decelerate the pace of further decline. Expert forecasts are evenly divided, much like those for EUR/USD: 45% predict a northward correction, 45% foresee a continued southward trend, and the remaining 10% point to an eastward move. Among the oscillators on the D1 chart, 100% are coloured in red, with 15% indicating oversold conditions. Trend indicators show a 90% to 10% ratio favouring red. If the pair trends downward, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2445, 1.2370-1.2390, 1.2300-1.2330, 1.2270, 1.2190-1.2210, 1.2085, 1.1960, and 1.1800. In case of upward movement, resistance can be expected at levels 1.2510, 1.2560-1.2575, 1.2600-1.2615, 1.2690-1.2710, 1.2760, 1.2800-1.2815, 1.2880, 1.2940, 1.2995-1.3010, 1.3060, and 1.3125-1.3140, as well as 1.3185-1.3210.

In terms of key economic data for the United Kingdom, the unemployment figures set to be released on Tuesday, September 12, are of particular interest. Additionally, the country's July GDP numbers, which will be disclosed on Wednesday, September 13, are also noteworthy.

USD/JPY: Bulls Wary as Bears Anticipate Currency Interventions

As for Japan, the question of "economy or inflation" is not up for debate; the answer is unequivocally the economy. On Wednesday, September 6, Kyodo News, citing anonymous sources, reported that the Japanese government apparently plans to roll out new economic stimulus measures in October. Reuters, quoting Japanese media outlets, identified the primary goals of the stimulus as "supporting wage increases within companies and mitigating electricity costs." "It is expected that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will task [the responsible parties] with preparing a draft […] to allocate additional budget resources for these measures," the report stated. Reuters also presented an analysis indicating that the country's debt burden will increase due to the announced stimulus measures. According to estimates, Japan's debt, which is already twice its GDP, will hit a record level of 112 trillion yen (760 billion dollars) in the next fiscal year.

It becomes clear that under such circumstances, inflation will continue to rise. Meanwhile, USD/JPY continues its upward movement, reaching a level of 147.86 on September 7, marking a 10-month high. On Friday, September 8, Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated once again that the country's authorities "are not ruling out any options to combat excessive currency fluctuations." However, no market participants believe in a rate hike anymore, given that it has been stuck at a negative level of -0.1% for many years. Concerns are growing among investors that the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may finally resort not to verbal, but to actual currency interventions, as was the case last fall. According to the same Reuters report, Japan's chief currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, stated that Japanese banking authorities are considering the possibility of intervention to put an end to "speculative" movements.

Against the backdrop of the DXY Dollar Index holding around 105.00, its highest level since March, only currency interventions by the Bank of Japan could help the yen strengthen its position somewhat. However, according to some analysts, the main reason for the yen's weakness lies in the disagreements among the country's politicians regarding its monetary policy.

The final point of the past trading week was marked at 147.79. Strategists at UOB Group anticipate that the continuation of the upward momentum could push USD/JPY towards an assault on the 149.00 level in the coming weeks. As for the consensus forecast, only 20% of analysts still believe in the dollar's potential and the pair's further growth. Bears have gained the favour of 80%. (It's worth noting that even a 100% consensus does not guarantee the accuracy of the forecast, especially when it comes to the Japanese yen.) As for the trend indicators and oscillators on the D1 chart, all 100% are coloured green, although 40% of these are signalling overbought conditions. The nearest support level lies in the 146.85-147.00 zone, followed by 146.10, 145.55-145.70, 145.30, 144.90, 144.50, 143.75-144.05, 142.90-143.05, 142.20, 141.40-141.75, 140.60-140.75, 139.85, 138.95-139.05, 138.05-138.30, and 137.25-137.50. The nearest resistance stands at 148.45, followed by 148.85-149.10, 150.00, and finally, the October 2022 peak at 151.90.

No significant economic data concerning the state of the Japanese economy is scheduled for release in the upcoming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Fear and Doubt in the Market

For the third week, the market has been in a state of apathy. According to observations by crypto-millionaire William Clemente, the total trading volume for digital assets has fallen to its lowest levels since 2020. The BTC/USD chart on the H1 and H4 timeframes mostly resembles an ant trail, where these insects move in a thin, unbroken line.

The situation was invigorated by a court decision in the Grayscale case. This world-leading investment firm in cryptocurrency asset management won an appeal against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). As a result, on August 29, bitcoin surged from $26,060 to $28,122 within three hours, showing its best growth rate in the last 12 months. However, the excitement was short-lived, as the SEC struck back by deciding to postpone until October the consideration of applications for spot bitcoin ETF registrations. Consequently, the flagship cryptocurrency returned to the support zone of $25,500.

Turning to technical analysis, this support corresponds to the Fibonacci level of 0.382. A break below this level could potentially lead to a fall to $21,700: the Fibonacci level of 0.618. Experts from Fairlead Strategies note that at the end of August, the digital gold's monthly chart confirmed an exit from the overbought zone on the stochastic oscillator, which could signal disappointment for bitcoin bulls. Analysts believe that this formed signal often indicates the passing of a local peak, as seen at the end of 2017 and the beginning of 2021. "The decline [in the stochastic oscillator] suggests that the bottom formation process may be prolonged. This is especially true when considering the Ichimoku cloud overhead, which serves as resistance (~$31,900)," said the report from Fairlead Strategies.

According to an analyst going by the nickname Tolberti, the BTC chart is forming a "head and shoulders" pattern, which threatens further price declines. Another argument supporting the bearish trend is that bitcoin is trading below its 200-week moving average (MA). As a result, Tolberti speculates that the leading cryptocurrency could fall to $10,000, with a possible reversal occurring in March 2024.

Negative forecasts are also coming from analysts at Cointelegraph. The fact is that bitcoin derivatives have started to show bearish tendencies. The BTC price chart leaves no doubt that investor sentiment has not improved following Grayscale's victory. Therefore, experts anticipate that the leading cryptocurrency's quotes could decline to $22,000 in the coming weeks.

Cointelegraph believes that not only the postponement of the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs is pressuring the market, but also U.S. regulatory actions against exchanges like Binance and Coinbase. Multiple sources claim that the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) is likely to charge the world's largest trading platform and initiate a criminal investigation. The allegations involve money laundering assistance and violation of sanctions against Russian companies.

Currently, market participants are in a state of limbo and are uncertain about what to expect. Regulatory uncertainty is favouring the bears. The derivatives market is ridden with fear and doubt, which benefits those betting on a decline, according to Cointelegraph.

We have previously noted that powerful catalysts for market growth in the medium and long term could be the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs and the bitcoin halving event scheduled for April 2024.

Recall that this summer, eight major financial institutions submitted applications to the SEC to enter the cryptocurrency market through spot bitcoin ETFs. Among them, in addition to BlackRock, are global asset managers like Invesco and Fidelity. According to some estimates, in the first six months after the ETF launch, new demand for the cryptocurrency could amount to $5-10 billion, and the value of BTC could rise to $50,000-120,000 per coin.

Despite the SEC's decision to postpone the review of applications until mid-autumn, the chances of approval are quite high. After all, BlackRock is not some small fish but a global investment giant, and it is in good standing with U.S. authorities. It's worth mentioning that when the Federal Reserve decided in 2020 to buy securities through ETFs to support the American economy, half of the volume went to BlackRock funds.

Interestingly, the company itself highly estimates the chances of application approval. This is evident from its purchasing of both bitcoin and shares of mining companies. In mid-August, it became known that BlackRock acquired shares of four major mining companies, spending a total of over $400 million. Larry Fink, BlackRock's CEO, has referred to bitcoin as digital gold and an international asset that potentially offers inflation protection.

Alistair Milne, the Chief Investment Officer of the Altana Digital Currency Fund, believes that the price of bitcoin could reach $100,000 even without the approval of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). In his view, the ETF topic merely distracts market participants. Milne is confident that issues within the U.S. banking sector, the stabilization of risky assets following the end of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and increasing profitability in the crypto-mining sector will drive the coin's price upward.

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of the crypto exchange BitMEX, also thinks that due to issues in the banking sector, bitcoin is poised for substantial growth. According to him, the bull phase began after the Federal Reserve initiated a $25 billion program to stabilize the banking sector, notably including the "rescue" of Silicon Valley Bank. Hayes asserts that this situation has prompted traders to focus on assets with limited supply, such as bitcoin. While only a small fraction of market participants are currently taking this into account, he is convinced that their number will increase, and over the next 6-12 months, the leading cryptocurrency will experience a new surge.

As for the second driver, the halving, well-known blogger and analyst Lark Davis believes that this event could lead to a 500-600% increase in bitcoin's current price, potentially reaching around $150,000 to $180,000. However, with more than seven months to go before the halving, there are two upcoming events that could significantly influence investors' appetite for risky assets. These are the publication of U.S. inflation data on Wednesday, September 13, and the Federal Reserve meeting on September 20.

As of the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday, September 8, BTC/USD is trading at around $25,890. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market stands at $1.043 trillion, slightly down from $1.048 trillion a week ago. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index for bitcoin remains in the 'Fear' zone, registering at 46 points, up from 40 points a week earlier, though it is edging closer to the 'Neutral' zone.

In conclusion, another forecast comes from Artificial Intelligence. Utilizing several technical indicators, including Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Relative Strength Index (RSI), Bollinger Bands (BB), and others, the AI on the PricePredictions platform has calculated that the price of bitcoin should reach $26,228 by September 30. We don't have long to wait to see whether such intelligence can be trusted.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Forex | Forex Trading | NordFX

 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

– Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Gary Gensler, addressed the United States Senate, stating that the vast majority of cryptocurrencies fall under the jurisdiction of his agency. Consequently, all market participants, including exchanges, brokers, dealers, and clearing agencies, must mandatorily register with the SEC.
Gensler drew parallels between the current crypto industry and the tumultuous years at the beginning of the 20th century when securities market legislation was still in development. During that era, the agency implemented a series of stringent enforcement actions to regulate the industry, and many cases ended up in court. Similar measures are needed today. They are not only intended to deter entrepreneurs but also to safeguard investors, as perceived by the head of the SEC.

– Starting from November 1, 2023, Sarah Breeden will assume the position of Deputy Governor at the Bank of England. According to her current statements, cryptocurrencies do not currently pose a significant risk to the country's financial stability. However, they could become problematic if closely integrated into the financial world, such as in the case of using stablecoins for payments.
In her perspective, "cryptocurrencies are assets without intrinsic value. Their price can potentially drop to zero, so investors should be prepared for the possibility of losing all their money. Nevertheless, blockchain technology can be valuable for the financial system." The official has pointed out that recent events have underscored the risks within the cryptocurrency sector. Consequently, the cryptocurrency market's downturn has adversely affected two major American banks, Silvergate and Signature, and has also led to the collapse of the stablecoin UST, along with the bankruptcy of several crypto-lending institutions. Given the global nature of the cryptocurrency market, collaborative efforts among regulatory authorities are crucial for devising comprehensive oversight measures for crypto assets, as highlighted by Breeden.

– On Monday, September 11, the BTC price dropped below $25,000 despite the weakening dollar and rising stock indices. This drop occurred amidst rumours that the controversial exchange FTX plans to sell digital assets as part of a bankruptcy procedure. On Tuesday, investors started buying again at the lower price points, causing the coin's value to rise above $26,500.
According to several analysts, there is no fundamental justification for these fluctuations in the price of bitcoin. Essentially, due to low liquidity and a declining market capitalization, the asset is shifting between different groups of players. In reality, investors are looking ahead to September 20 when the next Federal Reserve (FRS) meeting is scheduled.

– We have previously reported on the case of James Howells, a programmer who accidentally discarded a hard drive containing cryptocurrency during an office cleanup in August 2013. Consequently, the hard drive, which held 7500 BTC, ended up in a landfill in Newport, United Kingdom.
Over the course of ten years, Howells has been petitioning local authorities for permission to search for his lost wealth. Recently, his legal representatives sent an open letter to the municipality, requesting access to the landfill site by September 18th. In the event of refusal, the unsuccessful crypto investor intends to initiate a legal lawsuit against the city council, seeking compensation for the value of the lost bitcoins, which currently stands at approximately $250 million. Howells also plans to challenge the authorities' decision to deny him access to the landfill.
Howells stated, "I've tried everything I could over the past decade, but they have been unwilling to cooperate, so I am left with no choice but to pursue legal action. They have even refused to engage in serious discussions about the matter. Regardless of the type of asset, whether it's bitcoin, gold, or diamonds, not addressing this issue is simply imprudent.".

– Analysts from the cryptocurrency platform Matrixport have issued a warning that if Ethereum (ETH) were to fall to $1,500, it could pave the way for a further drop to $1,000. This lower level is considered justified based on their revenue forecasts for the Ethereum blockchain ecosystem. Matrixport highlights that ETH is not a "super-hard currency" capable of resisting inflation, as last week, the number of newly issued coins exceeded the amount burned by 4,000, deviating from the deflationary model that the blockchain transitioned to when switching from Proof of Work (PoW) to Proof of Stake (PoS) consensus algorithm.

– Analyst Benjamin Cowen has set an even lower target. He stated that Ethereum is on the brink of "extreme swings," which could result in its price dropping to a range of $800 to $400 by the end of the year. This potential decline is linked to the possible reduction in the profitability of blockchain platforms built on Ethereum's smart contract technology.
According to Cowen, both the Ethereum bulls and bears "have suffered setbacks and failed to execute their strategies." This will likely lead to both sides realizing losses by the end of 2023.

– The Twitter account of Ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin was compromised as a result of a SIM card swap attack. Buterin had not enabled two-factor authentication, allowing the attacker to change the login password for his account by entering a code sent via SMS. Subsequently, the criminal posted a message on Buterin's behalf, falsely claiming a free NFT giveaway, and stole digital assets worth $691,000 from individuals who followed the provided link and linked their crypto wallets.

– David Marcus, co-founder of PayPal and CEO of Lightspark, a company specializing in integrating BTC payments using the Lightning Network, has made an unexpected statement. It turns out he himself doesn't believe that bitcoin will become a popular method of payment for purchases. Marcus explained that the currencies transmitted over the network will still remain fiat currencies that people are familiar with and use today. As for bitcoin, he likened it to a small data packet on the internet that is used to transfer values such as dollars, yen, or euros.

– Trader, analyst, and founder of the venture company Eight, Michael Van De Poppe, is predicting the last correction in the price of the leading cryptocurrency before an upcoming bull rally. In his view, if the bears manage to breach the exponential moving average line, which is positioned at $24,689, the worst-case scenario would see the coin drop to $23,000.
The specialist believes that this upcoming correction provides the final opportunity to buy bitcoins at a lower price. Institutional demand for digital assets is growing, so in the long term, the cryptocurrency's price will rise due to buying pressure.
However, it's worth noting that on August 17th, the BTC price broke below the ascending trendline that began in December 2022 and stayed below it. This suggests a high risk of a prolonged bearish trend.

– Dan Gambardello, the founder of Crypto Capital Venture, predicts that the next bull cycle could be the most impressive in the cryptocurrency market. The analyst has singled out ETH and XRP as cryptocurrencies to watch in the upcoming bull rally. His attention to these two altcoins is driven by Ripple's victory over the SEC in court and the approval of ETH ETF applications submitted by reputable fund managers.
At the same time, Gambardello has cautioned that the cryptocurrency market follows cycles, and it appears to be in an accumulation phase at the moment. Consequently, the analyst has warned that there is a possibility that the price of bitcoin could drop to $21,000 in the coming weeks. He attributes this potential drop to market manipulation by large players who may be suppressing prices and accumulating coins in anticipation of the next bull run.

– Prominent analyst known as CrypNuevo has analysed the current dynamics of bitcoin. According to this specialist, in the near future, the flagship cryptocurrency could reach the $27,000 mark. However, as the analyst emphasized, this is likely to be a false move. Furthermore, a subsequent drop is expected, potentially down to the $24,000 level.

– Mike McGlone, Senior Macroeconomic Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, has cautioned investors that the near future could be challenging for the crypto sphere. In his view, digital assets gained popularity during an era of zero interest rates. However, monetary policy is currently undergoing changes, which could pose problems for the industry. This is evident in the decline in Bitcoin's price, despite positive news about the impending approval of spot ETFs in the United States.
"Cryptocurrencies flourished during an unprecedented period of zero interest rates, but this policy is rapidly changing, with consequences for prices. In Q3, bitcoin dropped by 15%, despite the potential approval of spot ETFs. Cryptocurrency, traded around the clock and without weekends, could become one of the most accurate indicators of an impending reset in the global economy. It has been overly inflated with liquidity, and now we're witnessing a liquidity unwind," believes the analyst.
McGlone pointed out that by November, according to futures, the yield on US government bonds is expected to reach 5.45%. This is significant, especially when considering that from 2011 to 2021, this figure was only 0.6% annually, precisely when bitcoin and other digital assets experienced substantial growth. Therefore, the liquidity outflow from cryptocurrencies is not surprising.
(Recall that back in June, Mike McGlone had already warned about the potential decline in bitcoin's price and turned out to be correct)


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Forex | Forex Trading | NordFX

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 18 - 22, 2023​

EUR/USD: ECB Triggers Euro Collapse

The past week was marked by two significant events. The first was the release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data in the United States on September 13. The second was the meeting of the European Central Bank's (ECB) Governing Council on September 14.

Regarding the first event, the annual CPI in the United States rose from 3.2% in July to 3.7% in August, surpassing market forecasts of 3.6%. On a monthly basis, the CPI increased from 0.2% to 0.6%, precisely in line with market expectations. Financial markets reacted relatively tepidly to this data. According to CME Group, there is a 78.5% likelihood that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will maintain the key interest rate at its current level of 5.50% per annum during its meeting on September 20. However, the CPI statistics provide the regulator some room for manoeuvre in terms of tightening monetary policy in the future. If inflation in the United States continues to rise, there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will increase the refinancing rate by another 25 basis points (bps). This is especially likely given that the U.S. economy is demonstrating stable growth and the national labor market remains robust. The published number of initial unemployment claims was 220K, which was lower than the forecasted 225K.

The second event triggered a considerably more volatile response. On Thursday, September 14, the ECB raised its key interest rate for the euro by 25 basis points (bps) for the tenth consecutive time, moving it from 4.25% to 4.50%. This is the highest it has reached since 2001. Experts had varying opinions on the move, labelling it as either hawkish or dovish. However, in theory, an interest rate increase should have supported the common European currency. Contrarily, EUR/USD fell below the 1.0700 mark, recording a local low at 1.0631. The last time it reached such depths was in the spring of 2023.

The decline in the euro was attributed to dovish comments made by the ECB's leadership. One could deduce from these that the central bank had already brought rates to levels that, if sustained over an extended period, should bring inflation within the Eurozone down to the target 2.0%. ECB President Christine Lagarde's statement, "I'm not saying we are at the peak of rates," failed to impress investors. They concluded that the current hike to 4.50% is likely the last step in this tightening cycle of monetary policy. As a result, with the backdrop that the Federal Reserve may still raise its rate to 5.75%, bears in EUR/USD have gained a noticeable advantage.

Bearish momentum increased even further following Thursday's release of data indicating that U.S. retail sales for August increased by 0.6% month-over-month (MoM), significantly exceeding the 0.2% forecast. At the same time, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for August rose by 0.7%, also surpassing expectations and the previous reading of 0.4%.

"We anticipate that the relative strength of the U.S. economy will continue to put pressure on EUR/USD in the coming months, as the growth differential will play a leading role. We maintain our forecast for the cross to be at the 1.0600-1.0300 range over the next 6-12 months," comment strategists at Danske Bank, one of Northern Europe's leading banks. They continue: "Given that it's hard to envision a sharp shift in the current U.S. dollar dynamics, and with commodity prices currently rising, we may reach our 6-month forecast for the cross earlier than expected."

HSBC strategists predict an even faster decline for the pair, anticipating that it will reach the 1.0200 level by the end of this year. According to specialists at ING, the pair could drop to the 1.0600-1.0650 area around the time of the Federal Reserve meeting in the upcoming week. "We believe that, at this stage, the EUR/USD rate will be increasingly influenced by the dollar," they write. "Markets have recognized that the ECB has most likely reached its peak interest rate, which means that Eurozone data should become less relevant. We might see EUR/USD rise again today [September 15], but a return to the 1.0600/1.0650 area around the date of the Federal Reserve meeting seems highly likely.".

As of the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday, September 15, the pair indeed rose and ended the five-day trading period at the 1.0660 mark. 55% of experts are in favour of a continued upward correction, while 45% agree with ING economists' opinion and voted for a decline in the pair. As for technical analysis, almost nothing has changed over the past week. Among the trend indicators and oscillators on the D1 timeframe, 100% are still favouring the U.S. currency and are coloured in red. However, 25% of the latest indicators signal that the pair is oversold. Immediate support for the pair is located in the 1.0620-1.0630 area, followed by 1.0515-1.0525, 1.0480, 1.0370, and 1.0255. Bulls will encounter resistance in the 1.0680-1.0700 zone, then at 1.0745-1.0770, 1.0800, 1.0865, 1.0895-1.0925, 1.0985, and 1.1045.

The upcoming week will be quite eventful. On Tuesday, September 19, consumer inflation data (CPI) for the Eurozone will be released. Undoubtedly, the most significant day of the week, and perhaps even the upcoming months, will be Wednesday, September 20, when the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve will take place. In addition to the interest rate decision, investors expect to glean valuable information from the FOMC's long-term forecasts as well as during the press conference led by the Federal Reserve's management. On Thursday, September 21, the traditional initial jobless claims data will be published in the United States, along with the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Manufacturing Activity Index. Friday promises a deluge of business activity statistics, with the release of PMI data for Germany, the Eurozone, and the United States.

GBP/USD: Awaiting the Bank of England Meeting

According to recent statistics, the UK economy is going through a challenging period. Some of the more emotional analysts even describe its condition as dire. GBP/USD continued to decline against the backdrop of disappointing GDP data for the country. According to the latest figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday, September 13, the British economy contracted by -0.5% on a monthly basis, compared to an expected decline of -0.2%.

The day before, on Tuesday, the ONS published equally disheartening data concerning the labor market. The unemployment rate for the three months through July rose to 4.3%, compared to the previous figure of 4.2%. Employment decreased by 207,000 jobs, while the economy lost 66,000 jobs a month earlier. The market consensus forecast had been for a reduction of 185,000 jobs.

The Bank of England's (BoE) efforts to combat inflation appear to be rather modest. Although the annual rate of price growth in the UK has decreased from 7.9% to 6.8% (the lowest since February 2022), inflation remains the highest among the G7 countries. Moreover, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged from the previous month at 6.9% year-on-year, only 0.2% below the peak set two months earlier.

Sarah Briden, the Deputy Governor of the BoE, believes that the "risks to inflation [...] are currently to the upside," and that it will only reach the target level of 2% two years from now. Meanwhile, according to quarterly survey data, only 21% of the country's population is satisfied with what the Bank of England is doing to control price growth. This marks a new record low.

Analysts at Canada's Scotiabank believe that the decline of GBP/USD could continue to 1.2100 in the coming weeks, and further to 1.2000. Economists at the French bank Societe Generale hold a similar view. According to them, while a fall to 1.1500 seems unlikely, the pair could very well reach 1.2000.

GBP/USD concluded the past week at a mark of 1.2382. The median forecast suggests that 50% of analysts expect the pair to correct upwards, 35% anticipate further movement downwards, and the remaining 15% point eastward. On the D1 chart, 100% of trend indicators and oscillators are coloured red, with 15% indicating that the pair is in oversold territory. If the pair continues to move south, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2300-1.2330, 1.2270, 1.2190-1.2210, 1.2085, 1.1960, and 1.1800. In the event of an upward correction, the pair will face resistance at 1.2440-1.2450, 1.2510, 1.2550-1.2575, 1.2600-1.2615, 1.2690-1.2710, 1.2760, and 1.2800-1.2815.

Among the key events related to the UK economy, the publication of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday, September 20, stands out. This inflation indicator will undoubtedly impact the Bank of England's decision on interest rates (forecasted to rise by 25 bps, from 5.25% to 5.50%). The BoE meeting will take place on Thursday, September 21. Additionally, toward the end of the workweek, data on retail sales and the UK's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) will be released.

USD/JPY: No Surprises Expected from the Bank of Japan Yet

Since the beginning of this year, the yen has been gradually losing ground to the U.S. dollar, with USD/JPY returning to November 2022 levels. It's worth noting that it was a year ago at these heights that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) initiated active currency interventions. This year, however, the BoJ has so far engaged only in verbal interventions, although quite actively: high-ranking Japanese officials are frequently making public comments.

In a recent interview with Yomiuri newspaper, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the central bank might abandon its negative interest rate policy if it concludes that sustainable inflation targets of 2% have been achieved. According to Ueda, by year-end, the regulator will have sufficient data to assess whether conditions are ripe for a policy shift.

This verbal intervention had an impact: markets responded with a strengthening of the yen. However, the "magic" was short-lived, and USD/JPY soon resumed its upward trajectory, closing the five-day trading period at 147.84.

Economists at Danske Bank believe that the global environment favours the Japanese yen and forecast a decline in USD/JPY to 130.00 over a 6-12 month horizon. "We believe that yields in the U.S. are peaking or close to it, which is the primary argument for our bearish stance on USD/JPY," they state. "Additionally, under current global economic conditions, where growth and inflation rates are declining, history suggests that these are favourable conditions for the Japanese yen." Danske Bank also anticipates that a recession could begin in the United States within the next two quarters, prompting the Federal Reserve to cut dollar interest rates. Until the Federal Reserve concludes its easing cycle, the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its monetary policy unchanged. Therefore, any action from the BoJ before the second half of 2024 is unlikely.

As for short-term forecasts, Societe Generale does not rule out the possibility that following the FOMC decision by the Federal Reserve on September 20, USD/JPY could move closer to the 150.00 mark. As for the Bank of Japan's meeting on Friday, September 22, no surprises are expected, and it will likely involve another round of verbal intervention. Meanwhile, the vast majority of surveyed experts (80%) believe that if the Federal Reserve rate remains unchanged, USD/JPY has a high likelihood of correcting downward. Only 10% expect the pair to continue its upward trajectory, while another 10% take a neutral stance. All trend indicators and oscillators on the D1 time frame are coloured green, although 10% of these are signalling overbought conditions.

The nearest support levels are located in the 146.85-147.00 zone, followed by 145.90-146.10, 145.30, 144.50, 143.75-144.05, 142.90-143.05, 142.20, 141.40-141.75, 140.60-140.75, 138.95-139.05, and 137.25-137.50. The nearest resistance is at 147.95-148.00, followed by 148.45, 148.85-149.10, 150.00, and finally, the October 2022 high of 151.90.

We have already mentioned the Bank of Japan's meeting on September 22. No significant economic data concerning the state of the Japanese economy is scheduled for release in the coming week. Traders should be aware, however, that Monday, September 18, is a public holiday in Japan as the country observes Respect for the Aged Day.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Death Cross and Bitcoin Paradoxes

A "Death Cross," indicated by the intersection of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, has appeared on bitcoin's daily chart. This pattern last emerged in mid-January 2022, and was followed by a nearly threefold decrease in bitcoin's price by November, which is cause for concern. Interestingly, a similar Death Cross was observed in July 2021, but did not result in a price decline, offering some reassurance.

The current week in the cryptocurrency market has been marked by high volatility, with trading volumes for the leading cryptocurrency reaching $15 billion. Such levels of activity are typically only seen around major macroeconomic events. In this case, they include the release of U.S. inflation data on Wednesday, September 13, and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 20.

The BTC/USD weekly chart showed the following trends. On Monday, September 11, the price of bitcoin fell below $25,000, despite a weakening dollar and rising stock indices. This decline was fueled by rumors that the controversial FTX exchange was planning to sell digital assets as part of a bankruptcy proceeding. On Tuesday, investors resumed buying at lower levels, pushing the coin's price above $26,500. On Thursday, following the ECB's decision on interest rates, bitcoin continued to strengthen its position, reaching a high of $26,838. This occurred even as the dollar was strengthening.

In fact, the recent price dynamics are quite paradoxical. Imagine BTC/USD as a set of scales. When one side becomes heavier, it goes down while the other goes up. Yet, we witnessed both sides simultaneously descending and ascending. According to some analysts, there was no fundamental rationale behind these bitcoin movements. With low liquidity and falling market capitalization, the asset was merely being "shifted" from one group of speculators to another.

Even the testimony of Gary Gensler, the Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), before the U.S. Senate did not spook market participants. He stated that the overwhelming majority of cryptocurrencies fall under the jurisdiction of his agency. Consequently, all intermediaries in the market, exchanges, brokers, dealers, and clearing agencies, are required to register with the SEC.

Gensler compared the current state of the crypto industry to the "wild west" years of the early 20th century, when securities market legislation was still being developed. During those years, the agency took a series of strict enforcement actions to rein in the industry, and many cases ended up in court. Similar measures are needed today, not only to serve as a deterrent to businesses but also to protect investors, the SEC Chairman stated. (It's worth noting that, according to Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, the SEC is to blame for the U.S. becoming one of the "worst places" to launch cryptocurrency projects.)

But aside from the SEC, there are other regulators, such as the Federal Reserve. It's clear that the Fed's decisions and forecasts, which will be announced on September 20, will impact the dynamics of risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. Mike McGlone, Senior Macro Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, has already warned investors that the near future for the crypto sector looks challenging. According to him, digital assets gained popularity during a period of near-zero interest rates. However, as monetary policy shifts, challenges could arise for the industry. McGlone pointed out that the yield on U.S. Treasury bonds is expected to reach 5.45% by November, based on futures contracts. In contrast, from 2011 to 2021, this yield was only about 0.6% annually, a period during which bitcoin and other digital assets saw significant growth. Therefore, a liquidity outflow from cryptocurrencies would not be surprising.

Once again, many analysts are offering positive medium- and long-term forecasts but negative short-term outlooks. Michael Van De Poppe, founder of venture firm Eight, predicts a final price correction for the leading cryptocurrency before an impending bull rally. According to him, if bears manage to breach the exponential moving average line, currently at $24,689, the coin could drop to as low as $23,000 in a worst-case scenario. Van De Poppe believes this upcoming correction represents the last chance to buy bitcoin at a low price.

Dan Gambardello, founder of Crypto Capital Venture, predicts that the next bull cycle could be the most impressive in the cryptocurrency market. However, he also reminds investors that the crypto market follows cycles and appears to be in an accumulation phase. Given this, Gambardello warns that there's a possibility that bitcoin's price could drop to $21,000 in the coming weeks. He attributes this potential decline to market manipulation by major players who may be driving down prices to accumulate coins in anticipation of the next bull run.

According to a popular expert known as CrypNuevo, the flagship cryptocurrency could soon reach a $27,000 mark. However, the analyst emphasized that this is likely to be a false move, and a dip down to around $24,000 should be expected thereafter. (It's worth noting that on August 17, the BTC price broke through the ascending trend line that started in December 2022 and settled below it, indicating a high risk of a prolonged bearish trend.)

As for the short-term prospects of the leading altcoin, they also appear to be less than optimistic. Analysts at Matrixport have warned that if ETH drops to $1,500, the path to $1,000 would be open: a level the experts consider justifiable based on their revenue projections for the Ethereum blockchain ecosystem. Matrixport notes that ETH is not a "super sound money" capable of resisting inflation, as the number of coins minted last week exceeded the amount burned by 4,000. This represents a deviation from the deflationary model that the blockchain adopted with the consensus algorithm transition from Proof of Work (PoW) to Proof of Stake (PoS).

Analyst Benjamin Cowen sets an even lower target. He claims that Ethereum is on the brink of "extreme volatility," potentially plummeting to a range between $800 and $400 by the end of the year. The reason remains the same: a possible decline in the profitability of blockchain platforms built on ETH smart contract technologies. According to Cowen, both ETH bulls and bears "have crashed and failed to execute their strategies," which will result in both parties locking in their losses by the end of 2023.

With three and a half months remaining until the end of the year, the current state of the market at the time of writing this review, Friday evening, September 15, shows ETH/USD trading around $1,620 and BTC/USD at $26,415. The total market capitalization of the crypto market stands at $1.052 trillion, up from $1.043 trillion a week ago. The leading cryptocurrency accounts for 48.34% of the market, while the primary altcoin makes up 18.84%. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index for bitcoin remains in the 'Fear' zone at 45 points, albeit inching closer to the 'Neutral' zone (it was 46 points a week ago).


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Forex | Forex Trading | NordFX

 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

– Bitcoin is grappling with the $27,000 level ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, set to be announced on September 20. John Bollinger, the creator of the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator, believes that the leading crypto asset is poised for a breakout. The indicator employs standard deviation from a simple moving average to identify asset volatility and potential price ranges. Currently, the BTC/USD pair is forming daily candles that touch the upper band, which may suggest a reversal back to the central band or, conversely, an increase in volatility and an upward movement. The narrow Bollinger Bands on the charts indicate that the latter scenario is more likely. However, Bollinger himself is cautious in his commentary, stating that it's too early to draw any definitive conclusions.

– Many participants in the crypto community are confident that bitcoin will continue to grow. For instance, an analyst going by the pseudonym Yoddha believes that bitcoin has a chance to reach a new local high and target $50,000 by the end of the year. Following that, a correction to $30,000 could occur in early 2024, ahead of the halving event.
Crypto blogger Crypto Rover argues that troubles in the U.S. economy will serve as a catalyst for bitcoin's growth. Should a confident breakout occur around the $27,000 resistance level, a price movement to $32,000 could be anticipated.
Analyst DonAlt, who accurately predicted the cryptocurrency rally earlier this year, posits that bitcoin has a chance for another significant rally and could set a new high for 2023. "If we rise and overcome the resistance we're currently battling," he writes, "the target could be around $36,000. [...] I don't rule out missing a good entry at $30,000 because if the price takes off, it may rise too quickly. [However] there are substantial reasons for a downward move as well. In the worst case, I'll take a minor hit if it dips into the $19,000 to $20,000 range."

– Prominent analyst known by the pseudonym PlanB has reaffirmed his forecast made earlier this year. He noted that the November 2022 low was the bottom for bitcoin, and its ascent will commence closer to the halving event. PlanB believes that the 2024 halving will propel the leading cryptocurrency to $66,000, and the subsequent bull market in 2025 could elevate its price beyond the $100,000 mark.

– According to CoinShares, investments in crypto funds decreased by $54 million last week, with bitcoin accounting for $45 million of the outflows and Ethereum making up $5 million. Investments in funds allowing for short positions on bitcoin decreased by $4 million. This marks the fifth consecutive week of capital outflows, which have occurred in 8 out of the last 9 weeks. The total outflows over the past two months amount to $455 million. Meanwhile, weekly trading volumes have increased to $1 billion, representing a 42% surge compared to the previous week.

– Chainalysis has compiled a ranking of 154 countries based on the proportion of citizens investing a significant share of their savings in crypto assets. India topped the list, followed by Nigeria and Vietnam. The top 20, in descending order, included the United States, Ukraine, the Philippines, Indonesia, Pakistan, Brazil, Thailand, China, Turkey, Russia, the United Kingdom, Argentina, Mexico, Bangladesh, Japan, Canada, and Morocco.
Analysts noted that the global cryptocurrency adoption index is far from the historical highs seen in 2021 and is showing a declining trend. Most countries occupying leading positions in the ranking are categorized by the World Bank as nations with below-average income per capita.

– A new wave of cryptocurrency scams impersonating Elon Musk has emerged on the social media platform TikTok, as reported by Bleeping Computer. According to the publication, videos are being uploaded hourly, featuring Musk purportedly giving interviews to major outlets and directing viewers to a website where a giveaway is taking place. Fraudsters have created hundreds of such websites, some of which pose as cryptocurrency exchanges.
Journalists from the publication tested one of the giveaways: they created an account on the platform and entered the promo code provided in the TikTok video. They were then promised a bitcoin deposit into their account. A balance of 0.34 BTC (~$9,000) allegedly appeared in their wallet. However, upon attempting to withdraw the funds, they were asked to activate their account by depositing 0.005 BTC (around $132).

– U.S. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown has called for stricter disclosure requirements for companies in the digital assets industry. Brown sent letters to the U.S. Treasury Secretary, the Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and the head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), emphasizing the significant financial losses suffered by cryptocurrency investors. According to his data, investors lost approximately $10 billion in 2022 due to fraud and hacking attacks.
Additionally, nine American lawmakers have endorsed a bill aimed at combating money laundering through cryptocurrencies, which has been reintroduced for consideration in the U.S. Congress.

– Analysts at Matrixport, a provider of cryptographic services, believe that the surge in applications for launching spot bitcoin ETFs is revitalizing the digital asset market and could act as a catalyst for the price growth of the flagship cryptocurrency. The company notes a substantial "potential buying pressure for bitcoin," particularly from investors interested in the offering of a spot exchange-traded fund. Against this backdrop, bitcoin's dominance level has risen to 50.2%, marking the highest level in a month and nearing the 26-month peak of 52%, reached at the end of June.

– According to data from Chainalysis, cybercriminals from North Korea stole $340 million in 2023, with a third of that amount coming from just two attacks. This figure is significantly less than the previous year's record of $1.65 billion stolen in 2022. However, the attack dynamics are causing concern among experts. In the last 10 days alone, the Lazarus Group has hacked the Stake platform for $40 million and the CoinEx exchange for $55 million.

– Investor and bestselling author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," Robert Kiyosaki, believes that traditional fiat currency has no future, and the future of money lies in cryptocurrencies. According to the expert, the U.S. economy is on the brink of a serious crisis, and cryptocurrencies, especially bitcoin, offer investors a safe haven during these turbulent times. Kiyosaki forecasts that the price of bitcoin could soar to $120,000 next year, with the 2024 halving serving as a key catalyst for the rally.
The specialist also revealed that he personally owns 60 BTC, which he acquired at $6,000 per coin. As a result, his current profit from this transaction exceeds $1.25 million.

– Analyst Jason Pizzino believes that bitcoin's bullish market cycle began to form around January and this process is not yet complete, despite the recent price consolidation. According to the trader, bitcoin will confirm its bullish sentiment if it crosses a key level at $28,500.
"In this market, we've rarely seen levels below $25,000. I'm not saying it can't go down, but for the last six months, the weekly closes have been above these levels. So far, so good, but the bulls aren't here yet. They need to at least occasionally see closes above $26,550," states Pizzino. "The bulls still have a lot to accomplish. I'll start talking about them once we cross the white line again at the $28,500 level. That's one of the key levels for the beginning of bitcoin's upward movement, to then attempt to break through $32,000.".

– According to popular analyst and host of the DataDash channel Nicholas Merten, the crypto market may be in for another downturn, signalled by decreasing stablecoin liquidity. "It's a good indicator for identifying trends in the crypto market. For example, from April 2019 to July 2019, bitcoin rose from $3,500 to $12,000. During that same period, stablecoin liquidity increased by 119%. Then we see a period of consolidation where liquidity also remained stable. When bitcoin rose from $3,900 to $65,000 in 2021, stablecoin liquidity soared by 2,183%," shares the expert.
"Liquidity and price growth are linked. If liquidity is decreasing or consolidating, then the market is likely not going to grow. This holds true for both cryptocurrencies and financial markets. Market capitalization needs liquidity to grow, but we're seeing it constantly decrease, making a decline in cryptocurrency prices more likely," states Nicholas Merten.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Forex | Forex Trading | NordFX

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 25 - 29, 2023​

EUR/USD: Verbal Interventions by the Federal Reserve Support the Dollar

In previous reviews, we extensively discussed the verbal interventions made by Japanese officials who aim to bolster the yen through their public statements. This time, similar actions have been taken by FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) officials, led by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. At their meeting on September 20th, the FOMC decided to maintain the interest rate at 5.50%. This was largely expected, as futures markets had indicated a 99% probability of such an outcome. However, in the subsequent press conference, Mr. Powell indicated that the battle against inflation is far from over, and that the 2.0% target may not be achieved until 2026. Therefore, another rate hike of 25 basis points is very much in the cards. According to the Fed Chairman, there is no recession on the horizon, and the U.S. economy is sufficiently robust to sustain such high borrowing costs for an extended period. Furthermore, it was revealed that 12 out of 19 FOMC members anticipate a rate hike to 5.75% within this year. According to the Committee's economic forecast, this rate level is expected to persist for quite some time. Specifically, the updated forecast suggests that the rate could only be lowered to 5.1% a year from now (as opposed to the previously stated 4.6%), and a decrease to 3.9% is expected in a two-year outlook (revised from 3.4%).

Market participants have mixed beliefs about these prospects, but the fact remains that the hawkish assertions from officials have bolstered the dollar, despite the absence of tangible actions. It's possible that the Federal Reserve has learned from the mistakes of their European Central Bank (ECB) counterparts, who have led market players to believe that the monetary tightening cycle in the Eurozone has concluded. As a reminder, ECB President Christine Lagarde made it clear that she considers the current interest rate level to be acceptable, while the Governor of the Bank of Greece, Yannis Stournaras, stated that, in his opinion, interest rates have peaked, and the next move will likely be a reduction. A similar sentiment: that the September act of monetary tightening was the last, was also expressed by Stournaras's colleague, Boris Vujčić, the Governor of the National Bank of Croatia.

As a result of the Federal Reserve's verbal intervention, the Dollar Index (DXY) soared from 104.35 to 105.37 within just a few hours, while EUR/USD declined to a level of 1.0616. Economists at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC) believe that, given the Fed's decision to retain flexibility concerning another rate hike, it is not advisable to anticipate a dovish turn in the foreseeable future.

Danske Bank strategists opine that "the Fed was as hawkish as it could be without actually raising rates." However, they contend that "despite the ongoing strengthening of the dollar, there may be some upside potential for EUR/USD in the near term." Danske Bank further states, "We believe that peak rates, improvements in the manufacturing sector compared to the service sector, and/or a reduction in pessimism towards China could support EUR/USD over the next month. However, in the longer term, we maintain our strategic position favouring a decline in EUR/USD, expecting a breakthrough below 1.0300 within the next 12 months."

Data on U.S. business activity released on Friday, September 22, presented a mixed picture. The Manufacturing PMI index rose to 48.9, while the Services PMI declined to 50.2. Consequently, the Composite PMI remained above the 50.0 threshold but showed a slight dip, moving from 50.2 to 50.1.

Following the PMI release, EUR/USD concluded the week at 1.0645. Seventy percent of experts favoured further strengthening of the dollar, while 30% voted for an uptrend in the currency pair. In terms of technical analysis, not much has changed over the nearly completed week. All trend indicators and oscillators on the D1 timeframe are still unanimously supporting the American currency and are coloured red. However, 15% of them are signalling the pair's oversold condition. The nearest support levels for the pair lie in the 1.0620-1.0630 range, followed by 1.0490-1.0525, 1.0370, and 1.0255. Resistance levels will be encountered in the 1.0670-1.0700 zone, then at 1.0745-1.0770, 1.0800, 1.0865, 1.0895-1.0925, 1.0985, and 1.1045.

As for the upcoming week's events, Tuesday, September 26 will see the release of U.S. real estate market data, followed by durable goods orders in the U.S. on Wednesday. Thursday, September 28 promises to be a busy day. Preliminary inflation (CPI) data from Germany as well as U.S. GDP figures for Q2 will be disclosed. Additionally, the customary U.S. labour market statistics will be released, and the day will conclude with remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. On Friday, we can also expect a slew of significant macroeconomic data, including the Eurozone's preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) and information regarding personal consumption in the United States.

GBP/USD: BoE Withdraws Support for the Pound

The financial world doesn't revolve around the Federal Reserve's decisions alone. Last week, the Bank of England (BoE) also made its voice heard. On Thursday, September 21, the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee left the interest rate for the pound unchanged at 5.25%. While a similar decision by the Federal Reserve was expected, the BoE's move came as a surprise to market participants. They had anticipated a 25 basis point increase, which did not materialize. As a result, the strengthening dollar and weakening pound drove GBP/USD down to 1.2230.

The BoE's decision was likely influenced by encouraging inflation data for the United Kingdom published the day before. The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) actually declined to 6.7%, compared to the previous 6.8% and a forecast of 7.1%. The core CPI also fell from 6.9% to 6.2%, against a forecast of 6.8%. Given such data, the decision to pause and not burden an already struggling economy appears reasonable. This rationale is further supported by the United Kingdom's preliminary Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September, which hit a 32-month low at 47.2, compared to 49.5 in August and a forecast of 49.2. The Manufacturing PMI was also reported at 44.2, significantly below the critical level of 50.0.

According to economists at S&P Global Market Intelligence, these "disheartening PMI results suggest that a recession in the United Kingdom is becoming increasingly likely. [...] The sharp decline in production volumes indicated by the PMI data corresponds to a GDP contraction of more than 0.4% on a quarterly basis, and the broad-based downturn is gaining momentum with no immediate prospects for improvement.".

Analysts at one of the largest banks in the United States, Wells Fargo, believe that the BoE's decision signals a loss of rate-based support for the British pound. According to their forecast, the current rate of 5.25% will mark the peak of the cycle, followed by a gradual decline to 3.25% by the end of 2024. Consequently, they argue that "in this context, a movement of the pound to 1.2000 or lower is not out of the question."

Their counterparts at Scotiabank share a similar sentiment. New lows and strong bearish signals on the oscillator for short-term, medium-term, and long-term trends indicate an elevated risk of the pound dropping to 1.2100-1.2200.

Economists at Germany's Commerzbank do not rule out the possibility of a slight recovery for the pound if inflation outlooks significantly improve. They believe that the Bank of England has left the door open for another rate hike. The vote for maintaining the current rate was surprisingly close at 5:4, meaning four members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted in favour of a 25 basis point increase. This underscores the high level of uncertainty. Nevertheless, due to the weakness in the UK economy, the outlook for the pound remains bearish.

GBP/USD closed the past week at 1.2237. Analyst opinions on the pair's immediate future are evenly split: 50% expect further downward movement, while the other 50% anticipate a correction to the upside. All trend indicators and oscillators on the D1 chart are coloured in red; moreover, 40% of these oscillators are in the oversold zone, which is a strong signal for a potential trend reversal.

If the pair continues its downward trajectory, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2190-1.2210, 1.2085, 1.1960, and 1.1800. On the other hand, if the pair rises, it will face resistance at 1.2325, 1.2440-1.2450, 1.2510, 1.2550-1.2575, 1.2600-1.2615, 1.2690-1.2710, 1.2760, and 1.2800-1.2815.

In terms of economic events impacting the United Kingdom for the upcoming week, the highlight will be the release of the country's GDP data for Q2, scheduled for Friday, September 29.

USD/JPY: Lacklustre Meeting at the Bank of Japan

Following their counterparts at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) held its meeting on Friday, September 22. "It was a lacklustre meeting," commented economists at TD Securities. "All members unanimously voted to keep policy unchanged. The statement was largely similar to the one issued in July, and no changes were made to the forward guidance." The key interest rate remained at the negative level of -0.1%.

The subsequent press conference led by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda also disappointed yen bulls. Ueda did not speak against the weakening of the national currency; instead, he reiterated that the exchange rate should reflect fundamental indicators and remain stable. The central bank's head also noted that the regulator "could consider the possibility of ending yield curve control and altering the negative interest rate policy when we are confident that achieving the 2% inflation target is near."

Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki's speech was also a typical form of verbal intervention for him. "We are closely monitoring currency exchange rates with a high sense of urgency and immediacy," the minister declared, "and we do not rule out any options for responding to excessive volatility." He added that last year's currency intervention had its intended effect but did not indicate whether similar steps could be expected in the near future.

Ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds and the USD/JPY currency pair are traditionally directly correlated. When the yield on the bonds rises, so does the dollar against the yen. This week, following hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve, rates on 10-year Treasuries soared to their highest peak since 2007. This propelled USD/JPY to a new high of 148.45. According to economists at TD Securities, considering the rise in U.S. yields, the pair could break above 150.00. Meanwhile, at the French bank Societe Generale, target levels of 149.20 and 150.30 are being cited.

The last note of the five-day trading session sounded at the 148.36 mark. A majority of surveyed experts (70%) agreed with the views of their colleagues at TD Securities and Societe Generale regarding the further rise of USD/JPY. A correction to the downside, and possibly a sharp drop due to currency interventions, is expected by 20% of analysts. The remaining 10% took a neutral stance. All 100% of trend indicators and oscillators on the D1 timeframe are coloured green, although 10% of the latter are signalling overbought conditions. The nearest support level is in the 146.85-147.00 zone, followed by 145.90-146.10, 145.30, 144.50, 143.75-144.05, 142.20, 140.60-140.75, 138.95-139.05, and 137.25-137.50. The nearest resistance is at 148.45, followed by 148.45, 148.85-149.20, 150.00, and finally, the October 2022 high of 151.90.

No significant economic data related to the state of the Japanese economy is scheduled for release in the upcoming week. However, traders may want to mark Friday, September 29 on their calendars, as consumer inflation data for the Tokyo region will be published on that day.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Battle for $27,000

On Monday, September 18, the price of the leading cryptocurrency began to soar, pulling the entire digital asset market upward. Interestingly, the reason behind this surge was not directly related to bitcoin, but rather to the U.S. dollar. Specifically, it was tied to the Federal Reserve's decisions regarding interest rates. High dollar rates limit the flow of investments into riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies, as large investors prefer stable returns. In this case, ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, market participants were confident that the regulator would not only refrain from raising rates but would also keep them unchanged until year-end. Riding on these expectations, BTC/USD surged, reaching a peak of $27,467 on August 19, adding more than 10% since September 11.

However, although the rate did indeed remain unchanged, it became clear following the meeting that the fight against inflation would continue. Therefore, any hopes of a shift away from the Fed's hawkish stance should be set aside for now. As a result, the price of bitcoin reversed course. After breaking through the support zone at $27,000, it returned to its starting positions.

Despite the recent pullback, many in the crypto community remain confident that the digital gold will continue to rise. For instance, an analyst going by the alias Yoddha believes that bitcoin has a chance to refresh its local high in the short term and reach $50,000 by year-end. After which, he suggests, a correction to $30,000 may occur in early 2024, ahead of the halving event. Blogger Crypto Rover also anticipates that troubles in the U.S. economy will fuel BTC's growth. If the pair manages to firmly establish itself above $27,000, he expects the price to move towards $32,000.

Analyst DonAlt is of the opinion that bitcoin stands a chance to stage a new impressive rally and update its 2023 high. "If we rise and overcome the resistance we are currently battling," he writes, "the target, I believe, could be $36,000. [...] I won't rule out missing a good entry at $30,000 because if the price takes off, it may rise too quickly. [But] we have enough compelling reasons to also move downward. In the worst case, I'll take a minor hit if it plunges into the $19,000 to $20,000 range.".

Trader and analyst Jason Pizzino believes that bitcoin's bullish market cycle began forming around January, and this process is still not complete despite the recent price consolidation. According to the expert, bitcoin will confirm its bullish sentiment if it crosses a key level at $28,500. "This market has seldom seen sub-$25,000 levels. I'm not saying it can't go down, but for six months now, the weekly closings have been above these levels. So far, so good, but we're not in bull territory yet. Bulls need to see closings above $26,550 at least occasionally," states Pizzino. "Bulls still have much to do. I'll start talking about them once we cross the white line at the $28,500 level again. This is one of the key levels for bitcoin to start moving upwards and then try to break $32,000.".

John Bollinger, the creator of the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator, does not rule out the possibility that the leading crypto asset is preparing for a breakout. The indicator uses the standard deviation from the simple moving average to determine volatility and potential price ranges for an asset. Currently, BTC/USD is forming daily candles that touch the upper band. This could indicate a reversal back to the central band or, conversely, an increase in volatility and upward movement. Narrow Bollinger Bands on the charts suggest that the latter scenario is more likely. However, Bollinger himself comments cautiously, believing that it is still too early to draw definitive conclusions.

PlanB, the well-known creator of the S2FX model, has reaffirmed his forecast made earlier this year. He noted that the November 2022 low was the bottom for bitcoin, and its ascent will begin closer to the halving event. PlanB believes that the 2024 halving will drive the leading cryptocurrency up to $66,000, and the subsequent bull market in 2025 could push its price above the $100,000 mark.

Investor and best-selling author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," Robert Kiyosaki, has high hopes for the halving event as well. According to the expert, the U.S. economy is on the verge of a serious crisis, and cryptocurrencies, particularly bitcoin, offer investors a safe haven during these turbulent times. Kiyosaki predicts that the price of bitcoin could soar to $120,000 next year, and the 2024 halving will serve as a key catalyst for the rally.

In conclusion, to balance out the optimistic forecasts mentioned earlier, let's introduce some pessimism. According to popular analyst and host of the DataDash channel, Nicholas Merten, the crypto market could experience another downturn. He cites the declining liquidity of stablecoins as an indicator. "It's a good metric for identifying trends in the cryptocurrency market. For instance, from April 2019 to July 2019, bitcoin rose from $3,500 to $12,000. During the same period, the liquidity of stablecoins increased by 119%. Then we see a period of consolidation where liquidity also remained at a constant level. When bitcoin rose from $3,900 to $65,000 in 2021, the liquidity of stablecoins surged by 2,183%," the expert shares his observations.

"Liquidity and price growth are interconnected. If liquidity is declining or consolidating, the market is likely not going to grow. This is true for both cryptocurrencies and financial markets. For market capitalization to grow, you need liquidity, but what we are seeing is a constant decline in liquidity, which makes a price drop for cryptocurrencies more probable," Nicholas Merten states.

As of the time of writing this review, Friday evening, September 22, BTC/USD is trading around $26,525. The overall market capitalization of the crypto market has remained virtually unchanged, standing at $1.053 trillion (compared to $1.052 trillion a week ago). The Bitcoin Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped by 2 points, moving from 45 to 43, and remains in the 'Fear' zone.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Forex | Forex Trading | NordFX

 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

– Anthony Scaramucci, the founder of SkyBridge Capital, stated at the Messari Mainnet conference in New York that the worst is over in the current bear market for digital assets. "If you own bitcoin, I wouldn't sell it. You've weathered the storm. [...] The next 10-20 years will be extraordinarily bullish," he said.
The investor acknowledged that there are "headwinds" for bitcoin in the current macroeconomic environment, such as high interest rates, scepticism from SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, and negativity surrounding the acceptance of digital assets. However, he is confident that bitcoin offers more potential than gold. In his view, the proliferation of bitcoin ETFs will lead to the widespread adoption of digital assets.

– Mark Yusko, the CEO of consulting firm Morgan Creek Capital, believes that a positive decision on bitcoin ETF applications will trigger an inflow of $300 billion in investments. In such a scenario, the coin's market capitalization and value would see significant growth.

– Several other experts have predicted a decline in bitcoin's value leading up to the April 2024 halving. An analyst going by the pseudonym Rekt Capital compared the current market conditions to the BTC price dynamics in 2020 and speculated that the coin's price would decline within a descending triangle. However, in his opinion, the drop will be significantly less severe, as the coin will depreciate by 27% to $19,082.
Renowned trader Bluntz, who had previously predicted how far bitcoin's value would plunge during the 2018 bear trend, also foresees a continuation of the downward trajectory in the cryptocurrency market. He doubts that the asset's value has reached its bottom, as the descending triangle forming on the chart appears incomplete. For this reason, Bluntz anticipates that bitcoin will decrease in value to around $23,800, thereby completing the third corrective wave.

– Noted analyst Benjamin Cowen also believes that after several weeks of trading within a narrow range, the BTC price could fall to the $23,000 mark. Cowen bases his forecast on historical patterns, which indicate that the flagship cryptocurrency's price usually experiences a significant dip before a halving event. According to Cowen, data from past cycles suggest that BTC and other cryptocurrencies do not perform exceptionally well in the period leading up to such a pivotal event.

– Research firm Fundstrat speculates that, contrary to a bearish outlook, the price of BTC could actually surge more than 500% from its current value due to the halving, potentially reaching a level of $180,000. Meanwhile, financial corporation Standard Chartered estimates that the price of the oldest cryptocurrency could rise to $50,000 this year and to $120,000 by the end of 2024.
Current network activity suggests that investors are likely anticipating a new price surge, as bitcoin reserves on exchanges are approaching a six-year low.

– Over the years, the crypto community has been rife with bold speculations and conspiracy theories about who created bitcoin, how it was created, and why. One theory posits that it was conceived by the Communist Party of China, ostensibly for global domination. Others contend that it was the work of "good Samaritans" who aimed to aid societal progress. Some even believe the trail leads back to the CIA.
Within the bitcoin ecosystem, there is another persistent group that claims Satoshi Nakamoto was an employee of the National Security Agency (NSA). One of the most secretive U.S. intelligence agencies, according to this view, had an active role in creating the first cryptocurrency. Nic Carter, co-founder of research firm Coin Metrics, lends credence to this theory by pointing out that the Secure Hash Algorithm 256 (SHA-256) was created by mathematician Glenn M. Lilly. Lilly developed it under the supervision of the NSA and published the algorithm in 2001. He later served as the head of the NSA's mathematical research department.
Carter refers to his new theory as the "bitcoin lab leak hypothesis." He suggests that the bitcoin blockchain was initially an internal research project by the NSA aimed at collecting adversary information—a new "monetary weapon" for undermining third-country economies.
Matthew Pines, Director of Intelligence at Krebs Stamos, concurs with Carter's opinion. The cryptography analyst believes the creation of the BTC blockchain could be the result of collaboration between NSA cryptography experts and crypto enthusiasts. During the process, a communication breakdown occurred, and the anonymous developer inadvertently leaked proprietary information, thus making the project public property.
It is worth noting that the NSA was one of the first organizations to describe a system similar to bitcoin in a 1996 paper titled "How to Make a Mint: The Cryptography of Anonymous Electronic Cash." The paper proposed a system using open-source cryptography to allow users to make anonymous payments without revealing their identity.

– Dune Analytics is tracking 295 wallets that, according to the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), belong to the North Korean hacking group Lazarus. According to the latest data, these wallets currently hold digital assets amounting to approximately $47 million, including $42.5 million in BTC, $1.9 million in ETH, $1.1 million in BNB, and $640,000 in stablecoins, primarily Binance USD. It's worth noting that this is the lowest estimated value of Lazarus Group's crypto assets.
Meanwhile, Lazarus' wallets continue to show high activity: the last transaction was recorded on September 20. Interestingly, the hackers do not hold reserves in privacy coins like Monero, Dash, or Zcash, which are much more difficult to trace.

– Michael Saylor, the CEO of MicroStrategy, has compared the rate of fiat currency devaluation to inflation dynamics. He demonstrated that individuals could lose their savings if held in traditional currencies, as funds in U.S. dollars would have lost about 99% of their value over the past 100 years.
Saylor believes that bitcoin mitigates these risks due to its inherent characteristics. According to him, the flagship cryptocurrency represents a revolutionary technology with numerous advantages, including a capped supply of 21 million coins. Consequently, BTC is the best way to preserve your reserves, the billionaire concludes.

– The analyst known as CryptoCon notes that currently, bitcoin may be reflecting a pattern reminiscent of the 2015 market cycle, potentially paving the way for a new all-time high. According to his analysis, bitcoin is most likely to reach such a peak in December 2025 and could trade between $90,000 and $130,000.

– The Shanghai Intermediate People's Court has recognized bitcoin as a unique digital currency, despite the existing ban on trading these assets in China. The court granted bitcoin this status for several reasons: 1. It possesses qualities inherent to money, such as being storable, usable as a means of payment, and a measure of value for goods and services; 2. It enjoys global popularity; 3. It is valuable due to its limited supply of coins.
The court's decision does not impact the circulation of bitcoin in China and does not legalize cryptocurrency trading. However, the recognition of BTC as a digital currency lends the coin legitimacy. It is likely that, moving forward, it will be treated as virtual property in legal proceedings.

– Trader DonAlt believes that Ethereum could experience a significant devaluation before reaching the bottom of its cycle. "The worst is yet to come," he writes. "I would say we are, at best, two weeks away from the bottom." According to DonAlt's calculations, the floor for ETH stands at 0.047 BTC or $1,232.

– Cryptocurrencies have come to the aid of Lebanese residents who have been impoverished due to hyperinflation and governmental missteps. The economic crisis in the country erupted in 2019, leading to a 95% collapse of the national currency against the U.S. dollar. Moreover, in March 2023, the inflation rate almost doubled, ranging from 252% to 269%. According to the United Nations, about 78% of the country's population now falls below the poverty line.
As a result, a shadow crypto economy has emerged. Lebanese citizens are using USDT stablecoins as a means of payment and are earning their wages in bitcoin. Bitcoin mining has become not only incredibly popular but also highly profitable. According to CoinGecko data, Lebanon has the lowest cost of mining 1 bitcoin, at just $266. In comparison, due to higher electricity costs in the United States, this figure reaches $46,280.

– Experts have once again turned to artificial intelligence, this time to forecast the price of the flagship cryptocurrency by Halloween (October 31). CoinCodex's AI posits that by the specified date, the price of bitcoin will rise to $29,703.
Interestingly, the crypto market even has a term called "Uptober." The idea is that every October, bitcoin experiences significant price gains. Considering data from 2021, bitcoin was valued around $61,300 on October 31, marking a more than 344% increase compared to 2020. This phenomenon held true even in the past year of 2022, despite the high-profile crash of the FTX exchange. On October 1, 2022, the asset traded at $19,300, but by October 31, it had reached $21,000.
On the flip side, there are currently no concrete reasons for expecting a serious bull run. The key factor exerting downward pressure on the crypto market continues to be the Federal Reserve's tight monetary policy. As of the end of September, the U.S. regulator chose not to raise the refinancing rate but did not rule out such a move in the near future. Moreover, there is a likelihood that the regulator will maintain its course of tight monetary policy into the next year. It's also unclear how the SEC will act concerning applications for spot bitcoin ETFs.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Forex | Forex Trading | NordFX

 

[Stan NordFX]

September 2023 Results: South Asian Traders Lead at NordFX

Brokerage firm NordFX has summarized the trading performance of its clients for September 2023. The company also evaluated its social trading services and the profits earned by its IB partners.

Gold, specifically the XAU/USD pair, continues to be one of the most popular trading instruments, helping NordFX traders secure positions in the Top 3. Notably, this time all three podium spots were taken by compatriots from South Asia.

- The highest profit in the first month of autumn was earned by a client from South Asia, account number 1679XXX. Trading exclusively on the XAU/USD pair, the client managed to earn 46,138 USD.

- The second spot on the September podium went to their compatriot, with account number 1599XXX. A result of 21,598 USD was achieved through trading with gold (XAU/USD), as well as with the euro (EUR/USD) and the British pound (GBP/USD).

- The precious metal also assisted another representative from South Asia (account number 1702XXX) in entering the Top 3 for September with a profit of 18,766 USD. In addition to XAU/USD, this trader's portfolio included pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, and many others.

In the PAMM service, the "Trade and Earn" account continues to attract the attention of passive investors. Although it was opened 570 days ago, the account remained dormant until reactivating in November of last year. As a result, over the last 11 months, its yield reached 199% with a relatively small drawdown of less than 17%.

It's important to note that past performance does not guarantee future returns. Therefore, as always, we urge investors to exercise the utmost caution when investing their funds.

The Top 3 IB partners of NordFX for September are as follows:
- The highest commission amount of 14,042 USD was credited to a partner from Western Asia, account number 1645XXX. It's worth noting that this partner has led the Top 3 for five consecutive months. Over this period, they have earned just under 60,000 USD in total;
- Second place went to the holder of account number 1618XXX from South Asia, who received 9,923 USD;
- And finally, rounding out the Top 3 is a partner from Southeast Asia with account number 1361XXX, who received a commission of 7,127 USD.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Forex | Forex Trading | NordFX

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 02 - 06, 2023​

EUR/USD: Correction is Not a Trend Reversal Yet

The dynamics of the EUR/USD pair in the past week were atypical. In a standard scenario, combating inflation against the backdrop of a strong economy and a healthy labour market leads to an increase in the central bank's interest rate. This, in turn, attracts investors and strengthens the national currency. However, this time the situation unfolded quite differently.

U.S. macroeconomic data released on Thursday, September 28, indicated strong GDP growth in Q2 at 2.1%. The number of initial unemployment claims was 204K, slightly higher than the previous figure of 202K, but less than the expected 215K. Meanwhile, the total number of citizens receiving such benefits amounted to 1.67 million, falling short of the 1.675 million forecast.

This data suggests that the U.S. economy and labour market remain relatively stable, which should prompt the U.S. Federal Reserve to increase interest rates by 25 basis points (bps). It's worth noting that Neil Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, recently confirmed his full support for such a move, as combating high inflation remains the central bank's primary objective. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, went even further, stating that he does not rule out the possibility of rate hikes from the current 5.50% to as high as 7.00%.

However, these figures and forecasts failed to make an impression on market participants. Especially since the rhetoric from Fed officials proved to be quite contradictory. For instance, Thomas Barkin, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, does not believe that U.S. GDP will continue to grow in Q4. He also pointed out that there's a wide range of opinions regarding future rates and that it's unclear if additional changes in monetary policy are required. Austin Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, noted that overconfidence in the trade-off between inflation and unemployment carries the risk of policy mistakes.

Such statements have tempered bullish sentiment on the dollar. Amid this murky and contradictory backdrop, yields on U.S. Treasury bonds, which had been supporting the dollar, fell from multi-year highs. Uncertainty surrounding the U.S. federal budget and the threat of a government shutdown also weighed on the dollar. Furthermore, September 28 and 29 marked the last trading days of Q3, and after 11 weeks of gains, dollar bulls began closing long positions on the DXY index, locking in profits.

As for the Eurozone, inflation has clearly started to wane. Preliminary data indicates that the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth in Germany has slowed from 6.4% to 4.3%, reaching its lowest point since the onset of Russia's military invasion of Ukraine. The overall Eurozone CPI also fell—despite a previous rate of 5.3% and a forecast of 4.8%, it declined to 4.5%.

This reduction in CPI led to a rescheduling of the European Central Bank's (ECB) anticipated dovish policy shift from Q3 2024 to Q2 2024. Moreover, the likelihood of a new interest rate hike has significantly diminished. In theory, this should have weakened the euro. However, concerns over the fate of the dollar proved to be more impactful, and after bouncing off 1.0487, EUR/USD moved upward, reaching a high of 1.0609.

According to analysts at Germany's Commerzbank, some traders were simply very dissatisfied with levels below 1.0500, so neither macro data nor statements from Fed officials could exert any significant influence on this. However, the rebound does not indicate either a trend reversal or the complete end of the dollar rally. Commerzbank analysts believe that since the market has clearly bet on a soft landing for the U.S. economy, the dollar is likely to react particularly harshly to data that does not confirm this viewpoint.

Analysts at MUFG Bank also believe that the 1.0500 zone has finally become a strong level that served as a catalyst for the reversal. However, in the opinion of the bank's economists, the correction is primarily technical in nature and could soon fizzle out.

On Friday, September 29, traders awaited the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) in the U.S., which is a key indicator. Year-on-year, it registered at 3.9%, precisely matching forecasts (the previous figure was 4.3%). The market reacted with a minor increase in volatility, after which EUR/USD closed the trading week, month, and quarter at 1.0573. Strategists at Wells Fargo, part of the "big four" U.S. banks, believe that Europe's low metrics compared to the U.S. should exert further downward pressure on the euro. They also believe that the European Central Bank (ECB) has already concluded its current cycle of monetary tightening, as a result of which the pair may drop to the 1.0200 level by early 2024.

Shifting from the medium-term outlook to the near-term, as of the evening of September 29, expert opinions are evenly split into three categories: one-third foresee further dollar strengthening and a decline in EUR/USD; another third expect an upward correction; and the last third take a neutral stance. As for technical analysis, both among trend indicators and oscillators on the D1 chart, the majority, 90%, still favor the U.S. dollar and are coloured red. Only 10% side with the euro. The pair's nearest support levels are around 1.0560, followed by 1.0490-1.0525, 1.0375, 1.0255, 1.0130, and 1.0000. Bulls will encounter resistance in the area of 1.0620-1.0630, then 1.0670-1.0700, followed by 1.0745-1.0770, 1.0800, 1.0865, 1.0895-1.0925, 1.0985, and 1.1045.

Data releases pertaining to the U.S. labour market are anticipated throughout the week spanning from October 3 to October 6. The week will culminate on Friday, October 6, when key indicators, including the unemployment rate and the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) figures, are set to be disclosed. Earlier in the week, specifically on Monday, October 2, insights into the U.S. manufacturing sector's business activity (PMI) will be unveiled. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is also scheduled to speak on this day. On Wednesday, October 4, information regarding the business activity in the U.S. services sector as well as Eurozone retail sales will be made public.

GBP/USD: No Drivers for Pound Growth

According to the latest data published by the UK's National Statistics Office, the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 0.6% year-over-year in Q2, exceeding expectations of 0.4% and up from 0.5% in the previous quarter. While this positive trend is certainly encouraging, the UK's 0.6% growth rate is 3.5 times lower than the comparable figure in the United States, which stands at 2.1%. Therefore, any commentary on which economy is stronger is unnecessary.

Strategists from ING, the largest banking group in the Netherlands, believe that GBP/USD rose in the second half of the past week solely due to a correction in the U.S. dollar. According to them, there are no tangible catalysts related to the United Kingdom that would justify a sustained increase in the British currency at this stage.

Analysts at UOB Group anticipate that GBP/USD could fluctuate within a fairly broad range of 1.2100-1.2380 over the next 1-3 weeks. However, Wells Fargo strategists expect the pair to continue its decline, reaching the 1.1600 zone in early 2024, where it last traded in November 2022. The likelihood of such a move is corroborated by signals from the Bank of England suggesting that the interest rate on the pound may have peaked.

GBP/USD closed the past week at the 1.2202 mark. Analyst opinions on the pair's near-term future are split, offering no clear direction: 40% are bullish on the pair, another 40% are bearish, and the remaining 20% have adopted a neutral stance. Among trend indicators and oscillators on the daily chart (D1), 90% are painted in red, while 10% are in green. Should the pair move downward, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2120-1.2145, 1.2085, 1.1960, and 1.1800. Conversely, if the pair rises, it will face resistance at 1.2270, 1.2330, 1.2440-1.2450, 1.2510, 1.2550-1.2575, 1.2600-1.2615, 1.2690-1.2710, 1.2760, and 1.2800-1.2815.

No significant events related to the United Kingdom's economy are anticipated for the upcoming week.

USD/JPY: Awaiting the Breach of 150.00

"Appropriate measures will be taken against excessive currency movements, not ruling out any options," "We are closely monitoring currency exchange rates." Do these phrases sound familiar? Indeed, they should: these are words from yet another verbal intervention conducted by Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki on Friday, September 29. He added that "the government has no specific target level for the Japanese yen that could serve as a trigger for currency intervention."

One can agree with the last statement, especially considering that USD/JPY reached the 149.70 level last week, a height it last achieved in October 2022. Moreover, amid large-scale global bond selloffs, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) took measures to curb the rising yields of 10-year JGBs and announced an unscheduled operation to purchase these bonds on September 29. In such a scenario, if not for the global dollar correction, it's highly likely that this operation could have propelled USD/JPY to break through the 150.00 mark.

As we've already noted above, according to many experts, the dollar's sell-off is most likely related to profit-taking in the final days of the week, month, and quarter. Therefore, this trend may soon dissipate, making the breach of the 150.00 level inevitable.

Could 150.00 be the "magic number" that triggers Japan's financial authorities to commence currency interventions? At the very least, market participants view this level as a potential catalyst for such intervention. This is all the more plausible given the current economic indicators. Industrial production remained unchanged in August compared to July, and core inflation in Japan's capital slowed for the third consecutive month in September. Under these conditions, economists at Mizuho Securities believe that although currency interventions may have limited impact, "the government would lose nothing politically by demonstrating to the Japanese public that it is taking the sharp rise in import prices seriously, caused by the weakening yen.".

The week concluded with USD/JPY trading at the 149.32 mark. A majority of surveyed experts (60%) anticipate a southern correction for the USD/JPY pair, possibly even a sharp yen strengthening due to currency intervention. Meanwhile, 20% predict the pair will confidently continue its northward trajectory, and another 20% have a neutral outlook. On the D1 timeframe, all trend indicators and oscillators are painted in green; however, 10% of the latter are signalling overbought conditions. The nearest support levels are situated at 149.15, followed by 148.45, 147.95-148.05, 146.85-147.25, 145.90-146.10, 145.30, 144.45, 143.75-144.05, 142.20, 140.60-140.75, 138.95-139.05, and 137.25-137.50. The closest resistance stands at 149.70-150.00, followed by 150.40, 151.90 (October 2022 high), and 153.15.

Apart from the release of the Tankan Large Manufacturers Index for Q3 on October 2, no other significant economic data concerning the state of the Japanese economy is scheduled for the upcoming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Hopes on Halving and Halloween

In the first half of the week, BTC/USD trended downward, succumbing to the strengthening U.S. dollar. However, it managed to hold within the $26,000 zone, after which the dynamics shifted: The Dollar Index (DXY) began to weaken, giving the bulls an opportunity to push the pair back to the support/resistance area around $27,000.

It's clear that the stringent monetary policy of the Federal Reserve will continue to exert pressure on bitcoin, as well as the broader cryptocurrency market. While the U.S. regulator opted not to raise the refinancing rate at the end of September, it did not rule out such a move in the future. Adding to the market's uncertainty is the SEC's pending decisions on spot bitcoin ETF applications.

Mark Yusko, CEO of Morgan Creek Capital, believes that a favourable decision by the SEC on these applications could trigger an inflow of $300 billion in investments. In such a scenario, both the market capitalization and the coin's value would significantly increase.

However, the key word here is "if." Anthony Scaramucci, the founder of SkyBridge Capital, acknowledged at the Messari Mainnet Conference in New York the existence of "headwinds" for bitcoin in the form of high interest rates set by the Federal Reserve and the hostility of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler. Nevertheless, this investor and former White House official is confident that bitcoin offers greater prospects than gold. If the bitcoin ETF applications are eventually approved, it would lead to widespread adoption of digital assets. Scaramucci believes that the worst is already behind us in the current bear market. "If you have bitcoin, I wouldn't sell it. You've weathered the winter. [...] The next 10-20 years will be incredibly bullish," he stated. According to the financier, the younger generation will mainstream the first cryptocurrency, just as they did with the internet.

Amid uncertainties surrounding the actions of the Federal Reserve and the SEC, the primary hope for the growth of the crypto market lies in the forthcoming halving event scheduled for April 2024. This event is almost certain to occur. However, even here, opinions vary. A number of experts predict a decline in bitcoin's price before the halving.

An analyst known as Rekt Capital compared the current market situation to the BTC price dynamics in 2020 and speculated that the coin's price could fall within a descending triangle, potentially reaching as low as $19,082.

Well-known trader Bluntz, who accurately predicted the extent of bitcoin's fall during the 2018 bear trend, also foresees a continuing downward trajectory. He doubts that the asset has hit its bottom because the descending triangle pattern forming on the chart appears incomplete. Consequently, Bluntz anticipates that bitcoin could depreciate to around $23,800, thereby completing the third corrective wave.

Benjamin Cowen, another renowned analyst, is also bearish in his outlook. He believes that the BTC price could plummet to the $23,000 level. Cowen bases his prediction on historical patterns, which suggest that the price of the flagship cryptocurrency usually experiences a significant slump before a halving event. According to Cowen, past cycles indicate that BTC and other cryptocurrencies do not exhibit strong performance in the period leading up to this crucial event.

In the event of a downturn in digital asset prices, the upcoming halving could spell financial ruin for many miners, some of whom have already succumbed to the competitive pressures of 2021-2022. Currently, miners are operating on thin margins. At present, block rewards constitute 96% of their income, while transaction fees make up just 4%. The halving will cut the block mining rewards in half, and if this occurs without a corresponding increase in the coin's price, it could lead to financial catastrophe for many operators.

Some companies have started to connect their mining farms directly to nuclear power plants, bypassing distribution networks, while others are looking to renewable energy sources. However, not everyone has such options. According to Glassnode, the industry-average cost to mine one bitcoin currently stands at $24,000, although this varies significantly from country to country. CoinGecko data shows the lowest cost of mining in countries like Lebanon ($266), Iran ($532), and Syria ($1,330). In contrast, due to higher electricity costs, the U.S. sees costs soar to $46,280. If bitcoin's price or network fees do not significantly increase by the time of the halving, a wave of bankruptcies is likely.

Is this a bad or good development? Such bankruptcies would lead to a reduction in the mining of new coins, creating a supply deficit, and ultimately driving up their price. As it is, the crypto exchange reserves have already decreased to 2 million BTC, nearing a six-year low. Market participants are opting to hold their reserves in cold storage, anticipating a future surge in prices.

Research firm Fundstrat has speculated that against the backdrop of the halving, BTC prices could surge by more than 500% from current levels, reaching the $180,000 mark. Financial corporation Standard Chartered projects that the price of the flagship cryptocurrency could rise to $50,000 this year and to $120,000 by the end of 2024. The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart by the Blockchain Center also recommends buying; BTC/USD quotes on their chart are currently in the lower zone, suggesting a rebound is due.

According to Michael Saylor, the CEO of MicroStrategy, the inherent supply limitation of bitcoin capped at 21 million coins makes it the best asset for preserving and growing capital. The billionaire compared the depreciation rate of fiat currencies with the dynamics of inflation. He argued that individuals could see their savings erode if held in traditional currencies, citing that over the past 100 years, funds held in U.S. dollars would have lost about 99% of their value.

As of the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday, September 29, BTC/USD has neither fallen to $19,000 nor risen to $180,000. It is currently trading at $26,850. The overall market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market stands at $1.075 trillion, up from $1.053 trillion a week ago. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has increased by 5 points, moving from 43 to 48, transitioning from the 'Fear' zone to the 'Neutral' zone.

In conclusion, a forecast for the upcoming month. Experts have once again turned to artificial intelligence, this time to predict the price of the flagship cryptocurrency by Halloween (October 31). AI from CoinCodex posits that by the specified date, bitcoin will increase in price and reach a mark of $29,703.

Interestingly, there is even a term in the crypto market known as "Uptober." The idea is that every October, bitcoin sees significant price gains. Looking at the 2021 figures, bitcoin was trading near $61,300 on October 31, marking an increase of over 344% compared to 2020. This phenomenon remained relevant even in the past year, 2022, following the high-profile crash of the FTX exchange. On October 1, 2022, the asset was trading at $19,300, but by October 31, the coin had reached a mark of $21,000. Let's see what awaits us this time.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Forex | Forex Trading | NordFX

 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

– Bitcoin recorded its first green September since 2016, increasing from $26,012 to $26,992. According to TradingView data, the cryptocurrency market's market capitalization also experienced an uptick. It stood at approximately $1.029 trillion at the beginning of September and rose by 6.1% to $1.092 trillion by month-end.
Ran Neuner, a trader and the founder of Crypto Banter, emphasizes the significance of the positive September closing for the leading cryptocurrency. "The last time bitcoin saw a rise in September in a year preceding a halving, we had another rally of 70% in the final quarter. That was in 2015," he notes.
Analysts at Bitfinex share a similar sentiment. "The cryptocurrency market closed September in the green, which is rare but typically leads to a bullish trend in October," they write.
According to a report by Bitfinex Alpha, futures market indicators also confirm an optimistic outlook for October. The report includes network data, which shows that the current price is supported by dynamics between long-term and short-term holders. Indicators reveal that seasoned long-term investors are resolved to remain holders within the current price range. Bitcoins held for 6-12 months remain largely stagnant, and the supply of BTC that is more than three years old has been inactive since February 2023.

– According to data from network analytics firm Santiment, "whales" (wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC) have been quietly accumulating bitcoin and Tether (USDT) over the past six weeks. Their holdings have now reached a 2023 peak of 13.03 million BTC, indicating a bullish long-term outlook for bitcoin.

– The rise in bitcoin during the early days of October has somewhat offset the negative close of Q3, which saw a 12% decline. However, analysts at QCP Capital have warned that the possibility of retesting the $25,000 level should not be ruled out, despite the positive seasonality often referred to as "Uptober." According to statistics, over the past eight years, bitcoin has only finished October in the red in 2018. In other years, the monthly gain ranged from 5.5% to 48.5%. This time, experts anticipate that the resistance level will be between $29,000 and $30,000.

– On Monday, October 2, bitcoin reached a local peak of around $28,562. However, by the evening of the same day, traders began to take profits, and the coin fell below $27,500. Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone believes that such a pullback in bitcoin was inevitable. Pressure tends to build when the digital currency gains aggressively in value. Increased volatility is accompanied by heightened activity from sellers looking to profit from the asset's rise.
McGlone doubts that bitcoin will reach $30,000 in the near future. The primary factor hindering further BTC growth is the strict policy of U.S. authorities. Repressive actions by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) are deterring institutional investors from entering the cryptocurrency space. Global recession risks are also dampening risk appetite. In such a scenario, equity markets won't be able to grow, emphasized the Bloomberg strategist, adding that digital currencies will also suffer.

– Donald Trump is considered a staunch opponent of bitcoin. However, former SEC employee John Reed Stark believes that Trump may change his stance on cryptocurrencies during the 2024 presidential elections to garner support from voters who use digital assets. This speculation is supported by two facts. First, last year Trump released and sold a collection of NFT Trump Digital Trading Cards. Second, he still owns $2.8 million worth of Ethereum. Stark suggests that if Trump returns to the presidential office, he will prompt the SEC to approve the issuance of bitcoin ETFs and will also ease regulatory pressure on the crypto industry.

– The SEC has asked the U.S. District Court in New York not to dismiss its lawsuit against Coinbase. In its statement dated October 3, the Commission responded to Coinbase's claims, reiterating its position that certain cryptocurrencies traded on the platform qualify as investment contracts and, therefore, must be registered with the SEC. The regulator noted that Coinbase "has always known" that the cryptocurrencies it offers are securities and claimed that the exchange has already acknowledged this in its documentation.

– Additionally, on October 3, the court rejected the SEC's motion for an interlocutory appeal in its case against Ripple. The agency wanted to appeal the court's decision that the sale of XRP on crypto exchanges does not constitute an investment contract. However, this plan by the officials fell through. Against this backdrop, XRP appreciated by 5% within 24 hours.

– In July, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed a lawsuit against the crypto lending platform Celsius. The crux of the accusation is that Celsius attracted billions of dollars through the illegal and unregistered sale of "cryptocurrencies recognized as securities," repeatedly misled investors about its financial condition, and manipulated the price of its own token (CEL). The SEC has also levelled fraud charges against Celsius founder Alex Mashinsky, with a court hearing set for September 17, 2024. The platform plans to partially repay its debt to creditors this year, transferring to them bitcoin, Ethereum, and shares in a new organization, NewCo, totalling $2.03 billion.

– Trader under the alias Bluntz is confident that bitcoin has "officially" entered a bull market and that all predictions of a drop to the $24,000 level are unfounded. In his opinion, the coin's rise above $27,000 confirms that BTC is currently in a bull market. "I think it's time to let go of any bearish bias," wrote Bluntz.

– Last week, we reported that the Artificial Intelligence from CoinCodex predicted the flagship crypto asset's price to be around $29,703 by Halloween (October 31st). This time, another AI, the machine learning algorithm of the forecasting platform PricePredictions, gave a similar result. According to its analysis, the BTC price on October 31st will hover around the psychologically important mark of $30,403. The forecast was made using several key technical indicators, including the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Bollinger Bands (BB), and others.

– In his forecast, trader, analyst, and founder of venture company Eight, Michael Van De Poppe, is optimistic about not only October but also Q4 of 2023. He attributes his positive outlook to the potential approval of spot bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and the halving effect. The expert anticipates that the growth in the last quarter could elevate the price to around $40,000.
It's worth noting that the historical performance of BTC in this period has been quite mixed. For instance, in 2018, the digital asset's value declined by nearly half over three months, but a year earlier it had surged 142.2%.

– The analyst known as dave the wave believes that Ethereum will continue to depreciate against bitcoin at least until the end of 2023. The expert published a chart depicting the price dynamics of ETH relative to BTC, which shows a descending triangle indicating a fall in the altcoin's price.
Dave the wave drew an analogy to the trend observed from 2017 to 2018, suggesting that Ethereum will significantly devalue against bitcoin due to a strong BTC market rally. The chance for ETH to appreciate could come during the "altcoin season," which would begin after BTC reaches its peak value.
The analyst also made a long-term forecast on the price changes of bitcoin using logarithmic growth curves. According to this forecast, over the next 10 years, the cryptocurrency will outperform stocks in terms of investment returns and will become a primary means of wealth accumulation due to a significant increase in value.

– Bestselling author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad" and entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki urged people to invest in the first cryptocurrency before the launch of the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). "The Fed's CBDC is coming," he wrote. "Privacy is gone. Big Brother will be watching. When the CBDC hits the market, gold, silver, bitcoin, and cash will become invaluable. Start accumulating them now before it's too late." It's worth noting that in February, Kiyosaki predicted that bitcoin would rise to $500,000 by 2025 and called it the best hedge in turbulent times, while also cautioning about the asset's volatility.

– The total value of cryptocurrencies stolen by hackers since the beginning of 2023 has exceeded $1.15 billion, according to calculations by PeckShield. Nearly a third of all losses occurred in September, with damages from 22 crypto project hacks during that month amounting to almost $356 million. In contrast, only $17 million was stolen in the previous month, suggesting that even hackers take a vacation in August.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Forex | Forex Trading | NordFX

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 09 - 13, 2023​

EUR/USD: Will the Pair Reach 1:1 Parity?

Throughout 2023, the U.S. economy has effectively withstood aggressive interest rate hikes. The market-anticipated recession has yet to materialize, allowing the Federal Reserve to maintain its hawkish monetary stance. This has led to a sharp increase in Treasury yields and significant strengthening of the U.S. dollar. The yield on 10-year Treasuries plummeted 46% since March 2020, doubling the previous decline witnessed in 1981 amid aggressive monetary tightening by the U.S. central bank. As for the Dollar Index (DXY), it has remained above the critical level of 100.00 throughout the year, while EUR/USD has dropped 6.5% from its July highs.

On Tuesday, March 3, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds reached 4.88%. Many market participants believe that a 5.0% yield could be a tipping point for the U.S. economy, forcing the Federal Reserve into a dovish pivot. However, these are merely expectations that may be far from reality. On the same Tuesday, Loretta J. Mester, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, stated that inflation is only expected to reach the target level of 2.0% by the end of 2025. She indicated that there are no immediate plans to lower interest rates and, furthermore, she is likely to support an interest rate increase at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting if the current economic situation remains stable.

The U.S. macroeconomic data released in the first half of the past week appeared somewhat lacklustre. The ADP report revealed the weakest employment growth in the private sector since January 2021, coming in at a mere 89K, against a forecast of 153K (and down from 180K the previous month). While business activity in the services sector did continue to grow for the ninth consecutive month, it decelerated in September, with the PMI index falling from 54.5 to 53.6. As for the manufacturing sector, business activity remained in contraction territory, with a PMI of 49.0. Although this was an improvement over the previous 47.6, it still fell below the 50.0 threshold, indicating economic contraction. As a result, Treasury yields declined, and stock indices (S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq) along with EUR/USD turned upwards. Traders opted to liquidate their short positions on the pair in anticipation of the U.S. September labour market report, traditionally scheduled to be published on the first Friday of the following month, which in this case was October 6. More on this below.

If the latest U.S. statistics appeared unimpressive, the Eurozone's figures were even worse. According to official data from Eurostat published on Wednesday, October 4, retail sales in August contracted by 1.2% month-on-month, compared to a 0.1% decline in July. The market consensus had projected a decrease of only 0.3%. On an annual basis, the volume of retail sales fell by 2.1%, exceeding both July's 1.0% decline and the market forecast of 1.2%. Monthly Producer Price Inflation (PPI) in the Eurozone rose from 0.5% in July to 0.6% in August.

Assessing the inflation outlook in the Eurozone, the European Central Bank (ECB)'s Chief Economist, Philip Lane, cautiously stated that "we will not reach our 2% inflation target as quickly as we would the 4% mark." ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir was slightly more optimistic. "Core Eurozone inflation confirms our expectations," the official noted. "We are on a downward trajectory. [However], deflating inflation is taking a bit more time." Kazimir believes that September's 25 basis point rate hike in the Euro was the last one.

We have previously noted that there is no consensus within the ECB's leadership regarding future monetary policy. This was further confirmed by ECB Governing Council member Isabel Schnabel, who countered Peter Kazimir by stating that further rate hikes may eventually be necessary. She added that although the ECB currently does not foresee a deep downturn, "we cannot rule out a recession" going forward.

If the prospect of higher Euro borrowing costs remains uncertain, a rate reduction at this stage is definitely not on the table. This was confirmed on Thursday, October 5th, by ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos, who stated that discussions about rate cuts are premature. Since the Federal Reserve also has no plans to turn dovish from its hawkish stance, the current interest rate differential of 5.50% for the dollar and 4.50% for the Euro gives a certain advantage to the American currency. The Reuters expert consensus forecast expects EUR/USD to further decline to $1.0400 within October, with 1 out of 20 surveyed specialists anticipating a 1:1 parity. Nonetheless, analysts predict that EUR/USD will rise by approximately 6% over the next year.

The highlight of the past week was the U.S. employment report. Bloomberg experts had anticipated that the number of new non-farm payroll jobs (NFP) created in September would be lower than in August: 70K compared to 187K the previous month. In reality, the figure came in at 336K, almost twice as high as the forecast. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.8%.

Following the release of this data, which attests to the health of the American job market, EUR/USD initially declined but then quickly regained its footing and even advanced. As a result, the pair closed the trading week at the 1.0585 level. As of the evening of October 6th, when this overview was written, experts are equally divided on its near-term future, just like a week ago: a third are predicting further strengthening of the dollar and a decline in EUR/USD, another third anticipate an upward correction, and the final third are neutral.

As for technical analysis, among the trend indicators on the D1 chart, 65% favour the downside (red), and 35% are bullish (green). Most oscillators (60%) continue to side with the U.S. currency and are coloured red. Just 10% favour the euro, and half of those indicate overbought conditions. The remaining 30% hold a neutral stance.

Immediate support for the pair is found in the 1.0550-1.0560 area, followed by 1.0490, 1.0450, 1.0375, 1.0255, 1.0130, and 1.0000. Resistance for the bulls is situated around 1.0600-1.0615, followed by 1.0670-1.0700, 1.0745-1.0770, 1.0800, 1.0865, and 1.0895-1.0930.

In the upcoming week, on Wednesday, October 11, inflation data for Germany (CPI) and the U.S. (PPI) will be released. On the same day, the minutes from the last FOMC meeting will be published, offering investors insights into the committee members' views on future monetary policy. Thursday, October 12th, is likely to experience increased volatility, as consumer inflation data (CPI) for the United States will be announced. Additionally, the traditional weekly report on initial jobless claims in the U.S. will be released on Thursday. The week will wrap up with the publication of the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index on October 13 Traders should also be aware that Monday, October 9th, is a public holiday in the U.S., in observance of Columbus Day.

GBP/USD: Worst Currency of September

The British pound emerged as the worst performing G10 currency in September. Fuelling speculation about its future, the Bank of England (BoE) released a report on Thursday, October 5, indicating a significant rise in wages in the country. Expectations for wage growth over the next year also increased compared to August.

Certainly, the recent moderation in inflation is a positive development. However, economists at Germany's Commerzbank suggest that the wage growth dynamics indicate that inflation may be more stubborn than the Bank of England anticipates.

Survey results, also released on October 5, suggest that many market participants believe the BoE is not taking sufficient measures to combat rising prices. On the other hand, strategists at Japan's MUFG Bank argue that the "Bank of England has already gone too far in tightening policy." They write, "We see the potential for lower rates compared to other leading developed economies." There are clearly differing opinions, but one thing both camps agree on is that the British currency will continue to remain under pressure. At least until there is compelling evidence of sustainable declines in the inflation rate.

GBP/USD began the past week at a level of 1.2202 and returned almost to the same point ahead of the release of the U.S. employment report on Friday, October 6. The robust Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data temporarily strengthened the dollar. The week concluded with the European currency gaining the upper hand, closing the pair at 1.2237. However, the chart of the past two weeks still suggests a sideways trend. Analyst opinions on the pair's immediate future are as follows: 40% are bullish, another 40% are bearish, and the remaining 20% hold a neutral stance. Among trend indicators on the D1 chart, 65% are red, while 35% are green. As for the oscillators, 40% point to a decline in the pair, 10% point to an increase (all in the overbought zone), and the remaining 50% are neutral.

In a downward movement, the pair will find support levels and zones at 1.2195-1.2205, 1.2100-1.2115, 1.2140-1.2150, 1.2085, 1.2040, 1.1960, and 1.1800. If the pair rises, it will encounter resistance at levels of 1.2270, 1.2330, 1.2440-1.2450, 1.2510, 1.2550-1.2575, 1.2600-1.2615, 1.2690-1.2710, 1.2760, and 1.2800-1.2815.

Fresh GDP data for the United Kingdom is expected to be released on Thursday, October 12. After experiencing a decline of -0.5% in July, the indicator is anticipated to show a 0.2% growth on a monthly basis for August. No other significant economic events related to the country are expected for the upcoming week.

USD/JPY: Was There Really an Intervention?

We suggested in our previous review that the "magic" number of 150.00 would serve as a signal to Japanese financial authorities to initiate currency interventions. Indeed, after USD/JPY slightly crossed this threshold on Tuesday, October 3, reaching a high of 150.15, the long-anticipated event occurred, within a matter of minutes, the pair plummeted nearly 300 points, halting its freefall at 147.28.

The prevailing market sentiment is that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has finally moved from verbal interventions to actual ones. Interestingly, the country's Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, declined to comment on whether there was indeed a currency intervention. He merely obfuscated the issue by stating that "many factors determine whether movements in the currency market are excessive," and that "no changes have been made in how the government will address these issues." In short, interpret it as you will.

Of course, one cannot rule out the mass triggering of stop-orders upon breaching the key level of 150.00 (such "black swans" have been observed before). However, we believe that the episode was unlikely to have occurred without intervention from Japan's financial authorities.

After the sharp decline, the price has rebounded and is now approaching the ascending trend line from below. Whether the Bank of Japan's intervention (if it indeed occurred) has achieved its goal is difficult to say. Recalling similar scenarios from last autumn, the impact of such actions seemed to be only temporary, with market conditions reverting back to their previous state within a couple of months. However, could this latest move serve as a significant deterrent for USD/JPY bulls and allow the Japanese currency to regroup? The chances are there, particularly if the regulator actively intervenes to prevent the pair from rising back to the 150.00 level or higher.

The pair concluded the trading week at the 149.27 level. All 100% of the surveyed experts, invigorated by the events of October 10, voted for further yen strengthening and a downward movement for the pair. (It is worth noting here that even such unanimity offers no guarantees concerning the accuracy of the forecast.) Trend indicators on the D1 chart hold the opposite view—all 100% are still coloured in green. Among the oscillators, slightly fewer, 90%, remain in the green zone, with 10% having turned red. The nearest support level lies in the 149.15 area, followed by 148.80, 148.30-148.45, 147.95-148.05, 146.85-147.25, 145.90-146.10, 145.30, 144.45, 143.75-144.05, 142.20, 140.60-140.75, 138.95-139.05, and 137.25-137.50. Immediate resistance is at 149.70-150.15, followed by 150.40, 151.90 (the October 2022 high), and 153.15.

No significant economic data related to the state of the Japanese economy is scheduled for release in the upcoming week. Additionally, the country will be observing a public holiday on Monday, October 9, in celebration of National Sports Day.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Uptober's Target is $30,000

As Q3 closed on September 30, the BTC/USD trading pair saw a 12% drop. Despite setbacks in July and August, bitcoin experienced its first profitable September since 2016, increasing from $26,012 to $26,992 within the month. TradingView data also highlighted a 6.1% rise in the market capitalization of the cryptocurrency sector, moving from approximately $1.029 trillion at the beginning of September to $1.092 trillion by month's end.

Ran Neuner, the founder of Crypto Banter and a seasoned trader, underscored the importance of bitcoin's positive performance in September. He noted that in a year prior to a halving event, such as in 2015, a profitable September has historically been followed by a 70% surge in Q4. Analysts at Bitfinex echoed this sentiment, suggesting that a green September often presages a bullish trend in October.

The Bitfinex Alpha report further substantiated an optimistic forecast for October, citing futures market indicators. The data revealed that the current price is being maintained by a balance between short-term and long-term holders, implying that experienced long-term investors are steadfast in holding their coins. Furthermore, bitcoins that have been held for 6 to 12 months are predominantly dormant, and the supply of BTC that is over three years old has remained inactive since February 2023.

Santiment, a network analytics firm, reported that larger wallets, known as whales and sharks, holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC, have been quietly stockpiling both bitcoin and Tether (USDT) for the last six weeks. Their collective holdings have now reached a 2023 high of 13.03 million BTC, pointing to a promising long-term outlook for bitcoin.

It's well known that October follows September, and many investors have high hopes for this month. According to statistics, in the last eight years, bitcoin has only ended the month of October in the red once, in 2018. In other years, the monthly gains ranged from 5.5% to 48.5%. If we consider the entire history of the leading cryptocurrency, October has been a profitable month in eight out of ten instances, with an average gain of 22%. This seasonal phenomenon has been dubbed "Uptober."

The early days of October provided hope that the tradition of "Uptober" would continue in 2023. On Monday, October 2, bitcoin reached a local peak of around $28,562. However, disappointment set in later that same day as traders began to lock in profits, causing the coin to drop to the $27,500 zone. Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone believes that this pullback was inevitable. Pressure tends to build when the digital currency gains value aggressively. Increased volatility is accompanied by heightened seller activity, as they aim to capitalize on the asset's surge.

McGlone is sceptical that bitcoin will reach $30,000 in the near future. The main factor hindering further growth of bitcoin is the strict policies of U.S. authorities. The repressive actions of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) are deterring institutional investors from entering the crypto space. Global recession risks are also dampening risk appetite. In such a scenario, stock markets will not be able to grow, emphasizes the Bloomberg strategist, adding that digital currencies will also suffer as a result.

Analysts at QCP Capital also believe that the resistance level for BTC/USD will be between $29,000 and $30,000. They warn that, despite the positive seasonality, the possibility of retesting the $25,000 level should not be ruled out.

However, not everyone agrees with this view. For example, a trader going by the handle "Bluntz" is confident that bitcoin has "officially" entered bullish territory and that all predictions of a drop to the $24,000 level are unfounded. In his opinion, the coin's rise above $27,000 confirms that bitcoin is currently in a bull market. "I think it's time to shed any bearish biases," wrote Bluntz.

Another well-known trader, analyst, and founder of the venture firm Eight, Michael Van De Poppe, is optimistic not only about October but also about Q4 2023 as a whole. The expert anticipates that growth in the final quarter could push the flagship cryptocurrency up to the $40,000 mark. However, it's worth noting that while historical data overwhelmingly favors October, the quarterly dynamics of bitcoin are not so clear-cut. For instance, the digital asset appreciated by 142.2% in 2017, but the following year it lost almost half its value over three months.

In our previous review, we reported that the Artificial Intelligence from CoinCodex had forecasted the flagship cryptocurrency to reach a value of $29,703 by Halloween (October 31). This time, another AI, the machine learning algorithm from the forecasting platform PricePredictions, has given a similar result. According to its analysis, the price of bitcoin will hover around the psychologically significant mark of $30,403 on October 31. This forecast was made using several key technical indicators, including the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Bollinger Bands (BB), among others.

Concerning Ethereum, the primary competitor to bitcoin, an analyst known as Dave the Wave anticipates that Ethereum will sustain its depreciation against bitcoin at least through the end of 2023. Dave the Wave has published a trend chart for ETH/BTC, highlighting a descending triangle indicative of a price drop for the altcoin.

Drawing a comparison with trends from 2017 to 2018, Dave the Wave posits that Ethereum is poised for a significant devaluation relative to bitcoin, particularly due to a robust bitcoin rally. The potential for Ethereum to gain value appears limited to the so-called "altcoin season," which is projected to begin after bitcoin achieves its peak price.

As of the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday, October 6, BTC/USD is trading in the area of $27,960, ETH/USD at $1,640, and ETH/BTC at 0.0588. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market stands at $1.096 trillion, up from $1.075 trillion a week ago. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index for bitcoin has risen by 2 points over the week and currently sits squarely in the Neutral zone, at a score of 50.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Forex | Forex Trading | NordFX

 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

– The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has stated that nearly 200 accounts on the crypto exchange Binance were used by HAMAS militants. The CFTC emphasized that exchange staff were aware that their platform was facilitating potentially illegal activities yet turned a blind eye and even joked about it in internal chats. According to the regulator, as early as February 2019, Binance's former Compliance Director Samuel Lim had received information regarding the use of the exchange by representatives of the movement. However, as Lim explained to a colleague, HAMAS members typically transferred "small amounts" that would unlikely even suffice for purchasing an AK-47.

– Warren Buffett's partner and Vice Chairman of American holding company Berkshire Hathaway, Charlie Munger, stated that most investments in digital assets will ultimately become worthless. "Don't get me started on bitcoin. It's the dumbest investment I've ever seen," the 99-year-old investor expressed during the Zoomtopia online conference.
Munger also shared his views on artificial intelligence, noting that AI has actually been around for quite some time, tracing its roots back to the 1950s. "We've always had artificial intelligence. It's when software generates even more software," he said. However, in his opinion, the technology is "generating hype, probably more than it deserves."

– U.S. presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. told Bitcoin Magazine in an interview that he intends to defend bitcoin if elected as the President of the United States. He also expressed scepticism towards Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). According to Kennedy, national digital currencies could become a tool for governments to control individuals' financial transactions. "The freedom to transact is as important as freedom of speech," the politician stated.

– Sam Altman, the CEO of ChatGPT, described bitcoin as a "super logical step on the technology tree." The artificial intelligence creator appreciates the idea that humanity now has an international currency beyond the control of any single government. The OpenAI leader believes that corruption is a key impediment to societal progress, and that bitcoin is poised to overcome this obstacle.
Altman also expressed disappointment with the U.S. government's stance on the cryptocurrency industry: "I'm disheartened by many of the actions taken by the U.S. government recently. The war on cryptocurrencies seems to be never-ending, and authorities want to take everything under their control." Like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Altman believes that if the United States launches a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), it will become a state tool for surveillance over citizens.

– Analyst Benjamin Cowen believes that the crypto market is entering "one of its most brutal" phases in its cycle. According to the expert, bitcoin's dominance in the market capitalization of the crypto sector is increasing amidst a decline in the price of altcoins and diminishing investor interest in this asset class.
Using Fibonacci retracement levels, Cowen predicts that BTC dominance will likely peak at 60%, as it did in the previous cycle. The analyst emphasized that this metric is unlikely to rise to 65% or 70%, primarily due to the stablecoin market. (As of October 10, according to CoinMarketCap, bitcoin's share in the overall market capitalization of the crypto market was 49.92%.)

– Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has stated that the price of the leading cryptocurrency could reach $70,000 next year, and between $750,000 to $1 million by 2026. He justified his prediction based on factors such as the asset's limited supply, the potential approval of spot bitcoin ETFs, and geopolitical uncertainty. "I think this will be the biggest boom in financial markets in the history of mankind. Bitcoin will skyrocket to absurd levels, the Nasdaq will soar to absurd levels, and the S&P 500 will rise to absurd levels," Hayes declared.

– Analyst Nicholas Merten holds a diametrically opposite view. He believes that bitcoin could significantly crash due to actions taken by the Federal Reserve, potentially leading to a prolonged economic downturn in the U.S. If commodities such as oil, natural gas, and uranium begin to stabilize or decline in price, Merten sees this as a sign of an impending short-term recession. In that scenario, he suggests that stocks could fall by approximately 33%, similar to the correction that occurred in October 2022. In turn, bitcoin would react to this situation by dropping to the $15,000-$17,000 range.
Merten is convinced that a sustained bullish trend in the market is unlikely until the Federal Reserve begins to increase liquidity in the economy. "Bitcoin thrives when there's an increase in the money supply in the market and when investors are in a risk-on mood. However, at the moment, neither of these conditions is met," Nicholas Merten explained.

– A bitcoin mining farm called Lava Pool has been launched in El Salvador, utilizing renewable geothermal energy. The project is being developed by Volcano Energy and Luxor Technology, with 23% of the net income being allocated to the country's government. According to Volcano Energy's management, this move validates El Salvador's efforts to integrate bitcoin into its national energy infrastructure, providing rapid income and flexible load management options for the power grid.
The described initiative is part of a more ambitious project by Volcano Energy aimed at establishing a global bitcoin mining station powered by renewable solar and wind energy. Within the framework of this project, plans are underway to construct a renewable energy generation park with a capacity of 241 MW.

– Comparing the current dynamics of bitcoin to what transpired before and after the halvings in 2015 and 2019 indicates that the market is moving in the same direction as it did then. After its summer peak, the current coin price is undergoing a downward correction, but this is not surprising: typically, 200 days before a halving, the leading cryptocurrency could lose up to 60-65% of its value before resuming its growth trajectory.
Many experts are predicting significant price increases for bitcoin in 2024. For instance, analysts at JP Morgan suggest a price of $45,000, while those at Standard Chartered forecast $100,000. Writer and investor Robert Kiyosaki and cryptographer Adam Back also target the $100,000 mark. Fundstrat Research founder Tom Lee envisions BTC at $180,000. Venture capitalist Tim Draper expects $250,000, and billionaire Mike Novogratz, along with ARK Invest CEO Cathy Wood, project the coin to grow to $500,000 and $1 million next year, respectively.
The current optimism among investors can also be attributed to the present price dynamics of the digital gold: despite receding from its summer peak, investments in BTC have yielded a return of more than 60% since the beginning of the year.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Forex | Forex Trading | NordFX

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 16 - 20, 2023​

EUR/USD: Inflation Drives Trends

At the beginning of last week, the Dollar Index (DXY) continued its decline that began on October 3, while global equity markets experienced growth. The dovish stance of Federal Reserve officials and the falling yields on U.S. Treasury bonds were driving factors. In recent days, the regulators have been actively persuading the market of the likelihood of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, suggesting a potentially prolonged pause in the cycle of monetary tightening. For instance, on Wednesday, October 11, Christopher Waller, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, stated that "tightening in financial markets is doing some of our work for us," allowing the central bank to maintain a wait-and-see approach.

On the same day, the minutes of the September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) were released. The document, if not dovish, was certainly not hawkish. It is worth noting that the Committee left the interest rate unchanged in September. As for future prospects, the minutes indicated that Fed leaders acknowledge "high uncertainty" regarding the future of the U.S. economy and recognize the need to maintain a cautious approach to monetary policy.

Market sentiment began to gradually shift following the publication of the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI). The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the PPI rose by 0.5% in September, exceeding the forecast of 0.3%. The core PPI (MoM) increased by 0.3%, compared to the expected 0.2%. On an annual basis, it reached 2.2%, surpassing the forecast of 1.6% and the previous figure of 2%. This unexpected surge in industrial inflation led to speculation that consumer inflation could also exceed expectations.

This indeed materialized. Data released on Thursday, October 12, showed that inflation in September increased by 0.4%, higher than the 0.3% forecast. On an annual basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) also exceeded expectations, coming in at 3.7% against a forecast of 3.6%. Market participants concluded that such inflationary growth could prompt Federal Reserve officials to shift from a dovish to a hawkish stance, potentially raising the interest rate by another 25 basis points (bps) to 5.75% in the upcoming FOMC meeting. Amidst such sentiment, the dollar, along with the yields on U.S. government bonds, sharply increased, while equity markets declined. The DXY reached a new local peak, hitting 106.35. Yields on 10-year Treasuries rose to 4.65%, and 2-year yields reached 5.05%. EUR/USD reversed course, dropping from a high of 1.0639 to 1.0525 in just a few hours.

Germany's CPI was also released on Wednesday, September 11, showing an annual consumer inflation of 4.3% and a monthly figure of 0.3%, both of which were fully in line with forecasts and previous data. Joachim Nagel, a member of the ECB's Governing Council and the head of Bundesbank, stated that inflation in Germany has reached its peak. By 2025, he projects that the tightening of monetary policy will steer inflation in the Eurozone down to 2.7%, according to his opinion. "Until we have defeated high inflation rates, we will not rest," he assured.

The minutes from the ECB's September meeting revealed that a solid majority of the Governing Council members supported a 25 basis point interest rate hike for the euro. In their view, any pause might signal that the tightening cycle has come to an end or that the Governing Council is more concerned about the state of the economy and a possible recession than about excessive inflation. These minutes were published on Thursday, October 12.

Some Council members advocate keeping the key rates at their current level, notably François Villeroy de Galhau, the President of the Bank of France. In his opinion, patience in monetary policy currently holds more importance than activity, stating that it would be much better to achieve the goal through a "soft landing" rather than a "hard one."

With a high degree of probability, the European Central Bank will raise the interest rate to 4.75% at its next meeting on October 26. Even after this increase, the rate will still remain below that of the Federal Reserve. Combined with the apparent weakness of the Eurozone economy, this will continue to exert pressure on the euro. The situation is further complicated by a potential spike in energy prices due to the ongoing military actions in Ukraine and the recent escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as winter approaches.

EUR/USD closed at a level of 1.0507 last week. As of the evening of October 13, when this review was written, experts were divided on its near-term prospects: 80% favoured a northward correction for the pair, while 20% took a neutral stance. The number of votes in favor of further dollar strengthening stood at 0%.

Regarding technical analysis, among the trend indicators on the D1 chart, 100% sided with the bears. A majority (60%) of oscillators continue to favor the U.S. currency and are coloured in red. 30% sided with the euro, with the remaining 10% taking a neutral stance.

Near-term support for the pair is located around 1.0450, followed by 1.0375, 1.0255, 1.0130, and 1.0000. Bulls will encounter resistance in the area of 1.0600-1.0620, then 1.0670-1.0700, 1.0740-1.0770, 1.0800, 1.0865, and 1.0895-1.0930.

The upcoming week's economic calendar highlights several key events. On Tuesday, October 17, data on U.S. retail sales will be released. The Eurozone's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is scheduled for publication on Wednesday. Thursday, October 19, will feature the release of the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and the customary data on initial jobless claims in the United States. A speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is also planned for the evening of that Thursday.

GBP/USD: It Was Tough, and It Will Be Tough

Overall, the GBP/USD chart closely resembled that of EUR/USD: rising until Thursday, followed by a reversal and decline after the release of consumer inflation data in the United States. In addition to the prospect of tighter U.S. monetary policy, the British pound faced additional pressure from UK industrial production data.

According to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), published on Thursday, the country's industrial sector activity declined again in August. Manufacturing output fell by -0.8%, compared to a forecast of -0.4% and a -1.2% decline in July. The overall industrial production dropped by -0.7%, against expected -0.2% and -1.1% in the previous month. On an annual basis, although manufacturing output did increase by 2.8% in August, it fell short of the expected 3.4%. The overall volume of industrial production also missed expectations, increasing only by 1.3% instead of the anticipated 1.7%.

Despite the fact that the UK's GDP, after contracting by -0.6% in July, increased by 0.2% in August, the risks of economic growth deceleration have heightened. This is largely due to developments in Israel – escalating tensions in the Middle East could disrupt the global supply chain, and rising prices for natural energy resources, primarily oil, will increase inflationary pressures.

Moreover, British companies have not only slowed their production growth rate due to weakened demand but have also postponed their plans for capacity expansion due to higher interest rates on loans.

This situation poses a dilemma for officials at the Bank of England (BoE), who are caught between trying to tame inflation and preventing the economy from slipping into a deep recession. Speaking at the annual meeting of the Institute of International Finance in Morocco on Friday, October 13, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stated that "the last decision was a difficult one" and that "future decisions will also be difficult." It's worth noting that the interest rate was left unchanged at 5.25% in September. The next BoE meeting is scheduled for November 2, and whether the regulator will opt to raise the rate even by a few basis points remains a significant question.

GBP/USD closed the past week at a mark of 1.2143. Analyst opinions on its near-term future were surprisingly unanimous, with 100% forecasting an increase for the pair. (It's appropriate to remind that even such unanimity offers no guarantees regarding the accuracy of the forecast). On the contrary, trend indicators on the D1 chart are entirely bearish: 100% of them point to a decline and are coloured in red. Oscillators indicate a fall for the pair at 50%, an increase at 40%, with the remaining 10% maintaining a neutral stance. Should the pair trend downwards, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2100-1.2115, 1.2030-1.2050, 1.1960, and 1.1800. If the pair rises, it will meet resistance at levels of 1.2205-1.2220, 1.2270, 1.2330, 1.2450, 1.2510, 1.2550-1.2575, 1.2690-1.2710, 1.2760, and 1.2800-1.2815.

Notable events for the upcoming week include Tuesday, October 17, when data on the state of the UK labour market will be released. On Wednesday, October 18, consumer price index (CPI) data will be published for both the Eurozone and the United Kingdom. (Particularly high volatility can be expected for EUR/GBP on this day). Also of interest is Friday, October 20, when retail sales data for the United Kingdom will be made available.

USD/JPY: Coming Full Circle

What's going on in Japan? Well, the situation remains largely as usual. After plummeting to a level of 147.24 on October 3, USD/JPY resumed its upward trajectory, marking the week's high at 149.82, just shy of the key 150.00 level. It has been noted multiple times that the divergence in monetary policies between the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will consistently push the pair upwards. Any currency interventions by Japanese financial authorities could only result in a temporary strengthening of the yen.

According to the Bank of Japan, producer inflation has been slowing for the ninth consecutive month. Producer prices, which rose by 3.3% in August with a September forecast of 2.3%, actually increased by a minimal 2.0% year-over-year, the lowest since March 2021. However, with regard to consumer inflation, the BoJ is considering raising the target for the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the 2023/24 fiscal year from 2.5% to around 3%. This was reported on Tuesday, October 10, by the Kyodo news agency, citing informed sources.

Evaluating the state of Japan's economy and its monetary policy, S&P Global rating agency believes that "interest rates in Japan will start rising from 2024." However, the agency's view contradicts statements made by Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials. For instance, BoJ board member Asahi Noguchi stated on Thursday, October 13th, that "an interest rate hike would be triggered by achieving the target inflation rate of 2%," and that this target is still far from being reached. According to him, "there's no need to rush," and "there's no urgent need to adjust the Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy." From Noguchi's statements, one could infer that the Japanese regulator would not even be contemplating the topic of interest rates, keeping them at a negative level of -0.1%, were it not for the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. Noguchi stated that rate hikes "don't necessarily reflect inflation expectations in Japan, but rather U.S. interest rates.".

USD/JPY ended the trading week at the level of 149.53. While the vast majority of experts predict a weakening of the dollar against the euro and pound, only 25% of those surveyed agreed with this view when it comes to the yen. A significant 75% forecast further weakening of the yen and strengthening of the U.S. currency. All 100% of trend indicators remain in the green. Among oscillators, slightly fewer, 80%, stay green, 10% have turned red, and the remaining 10% are in a neutral gray. The nearest support level is located at 149.15, followed by 148.15-148.40, 146.85-147.25, 145.90-146.10, 145.30, 144.45, 143.75-144.05, 142.20, 140.60-140.75, 138.95-139.05, and 137.25-137.50. The closest resistance is at 149.70-150.15, then 150.40, 151.90 (the October 2022 high), and 153.15.

No significant economic data pertaining to the state of the Japanese economy is scheduled for release in the upcoming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Where Will Bitcoin Fly Next?

Last week, bitcoin began charting its own course, detaching itself from its "big brothers" and disregarding both direct and inverse correlations. Despite rising stock indices and a weakening dollar, the leading cryptocurrency fell and moved into a sideways trend when the dollar started to gain strength.

BTC/USD has been trading within a range of $24,300-$31,300 since mid-March. Over the last eight weeks, its upper boundary has dipped even further, settling into a $28,100-$28,500 zone. As this range has narrowed, short-term speculators and retail traders have become less active, causing the realized capitalization indicator to hover near zero. Long-term holders, also known as "hodlers," are adding to their BTC wallets rather than depleting them, purchasing around 50,000 coins per month.

Historically, such market stagnation has preceded significant price movements. Many investors are now speculating that triggers for another bull rally could include the upcoming 2024 halving event and the potential approval of spot bitcoin ETFs. MicroStrategy, an American technology company, has accumulated 158,245 BTC, which is worth approximately $4.24 billion. In addition, investment giant BlackRock submitted an application for a spot bitcoin ETF in June and acquired $400 million worth of shares in leading miners.

The Bull Run could potentially commence right now; however, Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone believes that stringent U.S. policies, particularly those by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), are the main obstacles hindering bitcoin's growth. ChatGPT CEO Sam Altman also shares disappointment over the U.S. government's approach towards the crypto industry. "The war on cryptocurrencies seems endless, and the authorities appear keen on taking everything under their control," stated the Artificial Intelligence entrepreneur. Altman, along with U.S. presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., thinks that the government's hostility towards independent digital assets is partly due to their desire to introduce their own Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). Should this wish materialize, it would provide the state with another surveillance tool over its citizens.

Another pressure point on virtual assets comes from the monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Analyst Nicholas Merten opines that bitcoin could take a significant hit due to the Fed's actions, potentially leading to a prolonged economic downturn in the United States. If commodity prices, such as oil, natural gas, and uranium, start to stabilize or decline, this could signal an impending short-term recession. In such a scenario, Merten believes, stock prices could drop by approximately 33%, similar to the correction that occurred in October 2022. Bitcoin, in response, would likely plummet to a range of $15,000-$17,000.

The analyst is convinced that a sustained bull trend in the market is unlikely until the Federal Reserve begins to inject more liquidity into the economy. "Bitcoin thrives when there is an increase in the money supply and when investors are risk tolerant. At present, neither of these conditions is met," explained Nicholas Merten.

The current dynamics of bitcoin seem to align with what was observed before and after the halvings in 2016 and 2020. Following its summer peak, the coin is experiencing a downward correction; however, this isn't surprising. Typically, around 200 days before a halving, the leading cryptocurrency could lose up to 60-65% of its value but then would resume its growth trajectory.

Many experts predict a significant surge in bitcoin prices in 2024. Investor optimism is also fuelled by the current price trend of this digital gold: despite the pullback from its summer high, investments in bitcoin have yielded more than 60% returns since the beginning of the year.

JP Morgan experts forecast a price rise to $45,000 in 2024, while Standard Chartered predicts it will reach $100,000. Author and investor Robert Kiyosaki and cryptographer Adam Back also target the $100,000 mark. Fundstrat Research founder Tom Lee envisions bitcoin at $180,000, while venture capitalist Tim Draper predicts a $250,000 valuation. Billionaire Mike Novogratz and ARK Invest CEO Cathy Wood project the coin's rise to $500,000 and $1 million, respectively, for the next year.

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has set a "modest" target of $70,000 for bitcoin next year. As for the $750,000 to $1 million range, Hayes believes BTC/USD will only reach that level by 2026. He justifies his forecast based on the asset's limited supply, the prospect of spot bitcoin ETF approvals, and geopolitical uncertainty. "I think this will be the greatest financial markets boom in human history. Bitcoin will soar to absurd levels, Nasdaq will rise to absurd levels, and the S&P 500 will climb to absurd levels," stated Hayes.

Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's partner and the Vice Chairman of American holding company Berkshire Hathaway, has predicted a dire future for digital assets. In his view, the majority of investments in these assets will eventually become worthless. "Don't get me started on bitcoin. It's the dumbest investment I've ever seen," the 99-year-old investor expressed during the Zoomtopia online conference.

As of the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday, October 13, the total market capitalization of the crypto market stands at $1.046 trillion, down from $1.096 trillion a week ago. bitcoin's share in the overall market has increased from 39.18% at the beginning of the year to 49.92%. Analyst Benjamin Cowen believes the crypto market is entering "one of its most brutal" phases. According to the expert, bitcoin's dominance is rising amid falling altcoin prices and decreased investor interest in this asset class. Utilizing Fibonacci retracement levels, Cowen anticipates that this dominance figure will likely peak at 60%, as it did in the last cycle, but will probably not rise to 65% or 70% due to the stablecoin market. BTC/USD closed at $27,075 on October 13th. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index for bitcoin has dropped from 50 to 44 points over the week, moving back from the Neutral zone to the Fear zone.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Forex | Forex Trading | NordFX

 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

– On October 16, the bitcoin exchange rate soared to $30,102 before plummeting to $27,728. Following BTC, other digital assets also experienced a sharp increase in price, only to subsequently decline steeply. According to Coinglass data, the surge in prices led to the liquidation of over 33,000 trading positions, resulting in trader losses of $154 million. Of this amount, $92.0 million was attributed to bitcoin, $22.7 million to Ethereum, and $4.6 million to Solana.
The spike in prices occurred after Cointelegraph published a report stating that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had approved BlackRock's application for a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). It later emerged that the news was false. Cointelegraph's editorial team apologized for disseminating inaccurate information. The publication explained that one of its staff members had seen the news about the approval of the BTC ETF on Platform X (formerly Twitter) and decided to publish it as quickly as possible, without conducting fact-checking or obtaining approval from the supervising editor. Representatives from the SEC also emphasized that "the SEC itself is the best source of information about the SEC," and advised users to "exercise caution regarding what they read online."
In response, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink clarified that he could not comment on the status of the application's review. The executive also believes that the bitcoin rally was not so much driven by rumours of the approval of a spot BTC ETF, but rather by people's desire to utilize quality assets. He included bitcoin, gold, and Treasury bonds in this category of quality assets.

– Opinions among crypto industry representatives are divided regarding what lies ahead for BTC. For example, trader, analyst, and founder of venture firm Eight, Michael Van De Poppe, believes that the false report will not hinder the cryptocurrency's growth. According to his observations, the coin has already entered a phase of positive movement. "The trend is already upward. The lows have been set for us to buy [cryptocurrency]. Sooner or later, a bitcoin ETF will enter the market; it just won't happen today," says the head of Eight.
The authors of the analytical channel Root on Platform X (formerly known as Twitter) also think that the false news did not exert significant pressure on the cryptocurrency. In their view, the coin's pump, despite the subsequent correction, has actually helped improve its position. However, there is also a substantial portion of the crypto community that holds a negative outlook, predicting that the coin could drop to the $19,000-$23,000 range.

– The founder of SkyBridge Capital and former White House Communications Director, Anthony Scaramucci, believes that the first cryptocurrency is "in many ways more valuable than gold" and could "easily" reach a market capitalization of $15 trillion. According to his calculations, at such a capitalization, the price of bitcoin would be approximately $700,000.
Scaramucci asserts that the current financial system is "broken." "Strange things could happen when you see countries that are hostile to the U.S. trading in bitcoin or other assets, distancing themselves from the dollar because the United States has used its currency to assert its personal geopolitical will," he said. However, Scaramucci clarified that bitcoin is unlikely to become the "universal standard of money," as some crypto maximalists desire.

– Italian car manufacturer Ferrari has added digital assets as a payment method in the U.S. According to Reuters, this feature will be extended to Europe in Q1 2024. Initially, the company is accepting bitcoin, Ethereum, and the stablecoin USDC.
Ferrari management stated that the decision was made in response to customer requests. "Some of these are young investors who have built their fortunes on digital assets. Others are more traditional investors looking to diversify their portfolios," company representatives explained.

– The market capitalization of the cryptocurrency sector could increase by $1 trillion if spot bitcoin ETFs are approved in the U.S., according to analysts at CryptoQuant. They believe that the chances of such an outcome have significantly increased following the legal victories of Ripple and Grayscale against the SEC. It should be noted that the deadline for the SEC's decisions on applications from BlackRock and other companies is set for March 2024.
Experts highlight that a positive decision would lead to a new wave of adoption of this asset class by institutional investors. Approximately $155 billion could flow into the bitcoin market, raising its capitalization from the current $543 billion to nearly $700 billion. In this scenario, the price of bitcoin could reach $100,000 or even $200,000, according to a study conducted by Finbold.
Finbold also consulted PricePredictions' artificial intelligence for forecasts. According to the AI calculations, after the approval of a bitcoin ETF, the flagship crypto asset could quickly reach the $100,000 mark. PricePredictions emphasized that additional factors such as the general acceptance of bitcoin, actions of institutional investors, regulatory activity, and overall macroeconomic conditions will play a significant role.
As for the short-term forecast, the AI predicts that by November 1, 2023, the coin will reach a value of approximately $29,576, which is about 4% higher than its current price.

– According to data from the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. Government owns approximately 200,000 bitcoins, valued at over $5.65 billion. These assets were primarily confiscated from cybercriminals and participants in illegal darknet activities. An interesting fact is that, according to research by specialists at Morgan Creek Capital, the U.S. Government held only 69,640 BTC last year. This significant increase indicates that the U.S. has substantially ramped up its efforts to curb criminal activity and the illicit use of cryptocurrencies.

– Edward Snowden, a former employee of the CIA and the National Security Agency (NSA) of the United States, is known for having stolen 1.7 million confidential files and leaking this classified information to The Guardian and The Washington Post newspapers in 2013. The data pertained to global mass surveillance conducted by American intelligence agencies. Following this, he fled and found asylum in Russia. According to Snowden, he used bitcoins 10 years ago to pay for the servers he used to leak the secret documents.
Now, speaking at a conference in Amsterdam, the former spy has stated that bitcoin lacks real anonymity, allowing governments to easily track the individuals behind certain transactions. Snowden spoke about government and regulatory bodies attempting to control bitcoin and the entire industry, noting that the creation of a bitcoin ETF is actually another attempt to "tame" BTC.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Forex | Forex Trading | NordFX

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 23 - 27, 2023​

EUR/USD: No Interest Rate Hikes from the Fed and ECB in the Near Future?

Starting from the last days of September, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been trading within a sideways channel. Macroeconomic data released last week did not provide a clear advantage to either the U.S. or the European currency. On Tuesday, October 17, U.S. retail sales data was published, showing a monthly increase of 0.7%. Although this figure was lower than the previous 0.8%, it substantially exceeded the market's average forecast of 0.3%. On the same day, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for the Eurozone was also released, outperforming expectations with a reading of 2.3, considerably better than the forecast of -8, and marking a full rebound from the previous negative figure of -8.9.

On Wednesday, October 18, revised data on consumer inflation in the Eurozone was released. The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) matched the forecast and was ultimately assessed at 4.3% year-on-year (YoY), compared to 5.2% the previous month. On Thursday, October 19, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. came in at 198K, surpassing expectations and falling below both the prior figure of 211K and the market forecast of 212K.

Taking a broader view of the U.S. economy, we generally observe strong employment and GDP growth rates, a deceleration in inflation, increased consumer activity, and a real estate market that remains relatively stable despite rising mortgage rates. All these factors point to the appropriateness of another rate hike, which should, in turn, push the DXY higher. However, based on statements from Federal Reserve officials, it seems unlikely that a rate hike will occur at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on November 1.

Specifically, Patrick Harker, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, stated that economic pressure should not be created by increasing borrowing costs. Echoing Harker's sentiments, Lorie Logan, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, noted that although "desired progress is being observed in the fight against inflation, it is still too high." She added that "the economy continues to demonstrate strong performance, and labour markets remain tight," yet "the Fed still has some time to observe the economy and markets before making a decision on monetary policy.".

Jerome Powell's speech at the New York Economic Club on Thursday, November 19, did not meet the expectations of dollar hawks, leading EUR/USD to rise above 1.0615. According to economists at Rabobank, the Federal Reserve Chairman attempted to keep the door open for various options while maintaining a neutral stance. Rabobank believes that U.S. economic indicators are likely to sustain the possibility for further rate hikes. However, with less than a week and a half remaining until the next FOMC meeting, the current "neutral dynamics provide no basis to expect a rate hike on November 1st." Nonetheless, they note that "this option remains open for the December meeting." Despite that, economists at the bank still expect "the bond market to do the Fed's job, making further rate hikes redundant. However, if economic data remain strong, the FOMC will eventually have to resume the rate hike cycle at some point."

Analysts at the Netherlands' largest banking group, ING, opined that while the Fed Chairman's comments were perceived as dovish and led to some weakening of the U.S. currency, the dollar appears more inclined to rise than to further fall in the short term. Economists at Germany's Commerzbank characterized the mood among Fed officials as cautiously hawkish rather than dovish. They also see little chance for another rate hike in the current climate. "Indeed, it seems that the Fed has reached its peak, although Jerome Powell did not rule out the possibility of another rate hike depending on incoming data. However, monetary policy currently plays a secondary role for the market. Geopolitical risks have taken the forefront, and the dollar continues to be in demand as a safe haven," they commented. The bank's experts forecast that although it may be challenging for the dollar to continue rising in such a scenario, high oil prices will provide support.

At France's Societe Generale, it is believed that "the narrative about a higher rate over a longer term, both from the Fed and the ECB, points to a gradual decline of the euro." According to the bank's experts, "data from the Eurozone is not brilliant, and the divergence between growth forecasts in the U.S. and the Eurozone suggests that a slow movement toward parity [1.000], but not beyond it, appears likely.".

As of the time of writing this review, EUR/USD has evidently not reached parity and concluded the past week at 1.0593. Expert opinions on its near-term future are divided as follows: 50% voted for a stronger dollar, 35% foresee the pair trending upward, and 15% have adopted a neutral stance.

Turning to technical analysis, the outlook is also mixed. Among the trend indicators on the D1 chart, the ratio stands at 1:1: 50% in favour of reds (bearish) and 50% on the side of greens (bullish). Oscillators show 40% siding with the European currency, a mere 15% in favour of the dollar, with the remaining 45% taking a neutral position. The immediate support levels for the pair are situated around 1.0550, followed by 1.0485-1.0510, 1.0450, 1.0375, 1.0255, 1.0130, and 1.0000. Bulls will encounter resistance in the 1.0600-1.0620 zone, then at 1.0670-1.0700, 1.0740-1.0770, 1.0800, 1.0865, and 1.0945-1.0975.

The upcoming week promises to be highly eventful. On Tuesday, October 24, a slew of Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data will be released across various sectors of the German, Eurozone, and U.S. economies. The following day, October 25, will bring U.S. housing market data, along with remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) will hold its meeting where Governing Council members are expected to make a decision on the euro interest rate, which according to consensus forecasts, is likely to remain at its current level of 4.50%. Importantly, not only the decision itself but also subsequent statements and comments from the ECB leadership will be of significance. On the same day, the U.S. will release durable goods orders data as well as preliminary GDP figures for Q3 of the current year. The workweek will conclude on October 27 with the release of U.S. personal consumption expenditure data.

GBP/USD: Will the BoE Rate Remain Unchanged as Well?

At the beginning of this month, specifically on October 4, GBP/USD trended upwards, moving from a level of 1.2037 to reach 1.2337 within a week. However, resistance around the 1.2320 zone and a trendline clearly visible on the D1 and W1 timeframes halted the bullish momentum, sending the pair back downwards. As a result, the British currency has lost approximately 7.5% against the dollar since mid-July. The driving factors behind this are not merely technical analysis but also the prevailing economic and geopolitical landscape.

Amid tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing escalation of armed conflict between Israel and Hamas, investors are turning back to the dollar, viewing it as a safe-haven currency. Naturally, the rising cost of energy commodities is also affecting prices in the United Kingdom, which will undoubtedly put pressure on the country's economy and its currency, often considered by investors to be a riskier asset.

It's worth noting that at the beginning of the year, experts predicted that the United Kingdom would slide into a recession. So far, those forecasts have not materialized, although the economy is teetering on the edge, with the current annual GDP growth rate at 0.6% (compared to 2.1% in the United States). The situation could deteriorate by year-end, as high energy prices amid winter cold spells could further fuel inflation. It's already observable that the country's inflation slowdown has stalled, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been hovering around 6.8-6.7% year-on-year for the third consecutive month.

In such a scenario, the Bank of England (BoE) might very well opt to focus on supporting the economy over combating inflation. Although some representatives of the central bank have stated that the issue of raising interest rates remains open, the recent interview given by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey to the Belfast Telegraph appeared rather dovish, neutralizing the effect of Jerome Powell's similarly dovish comments. Mr. Bailey indicated that he expects "a noticeable decrease" in inflation in the coming month. "Looking at September's inflation data, we can say that core inflation has dropped a bit compared to our expectations, which is quite encouraging," added Bailey, sending GBP/USD into a minor knockdown.

Pressure on the pound was also exerted by the UK retail sales data released on Friday, October 20. According to the Office for National Statistics, retail sales declined by -0.9% month-on-month in September, significantly below the -0.1% forecast and the previous 0.4% value.

At the moment, the situation for the pound remains complicated. It's unclear how the BoE will react to the latest data. Most likely, until the upcoming meeting on November 2, the central bank will adopt a "close your eyes and hope for the best" approach. Meanwhile, analysts from Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, and RBC are in agreement that the rate hike cycle in the United Kingdom has likely come to an end. At the very least, the probability of a rate hike in the upcoming BoE meeting is estimated to be below 50%.

The weekly low for GBP/USD was recorded at 1.2089, while the week closed at 1.2163. When polled about the near-term future of the pair, 40% of analysts voted for its rise. The majority (60%), however, believe that the pair will continue its move toward the 1.2000 target. On the D1 timeframe, trend indicators are unanimously (100%) pointing to a decline, displayed in red. Oscillators are less decisive: 65% indicate a decline, 15% point to a rise, and the remaining 20% are neutral.

In terms of support levels and zones, if the pair continues to move southward, it will encounter 1.2085-1.2130, 1.2040, 1.1960, and 1.1800. On the flip side, if the pair rises, it will face resistance at 1.2190-1.2215, 1.2270, 1.2330, 1.2450, 1.2510, 1.2550-1.2575, and 1.2690-1.2710 levels.

Tuesday, October 24 is noteworthy in the economic calendar for the upcoming week. Data on the UK labor market and business activity will be released on this day.

USD/JPY: Amidst Prolonged Uncertainty

Many times have we heard these reassuring statements from Japanese officials about everything and... nothing! Let's take, for example, some quotes from Friday, October 20. First, from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda: "The Japanese economy is recovering at a moderate pace. […] Uncertainty regarding Japan's economy is very high. […] Inflation rates will likely slow down and then pick up again. [But] overall, Japan's financial system remains stable."

Next, from Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki: "It is important for currencies to move stably and reflect fundamental indicators. […] Exchange rates are influenced by various factors. I will not comment on currency levels in the Forex market. [And] I will not comment on our response to the currency market situation."

And, as the cherry on top, a quote from the Bank of Japan's latest report, also published on October 20: "Although the country's financial system is generally stable, the 'stress period may be further prolonged due to the ongoing tightening of central banks' monetary policy and concerns about slowing economic growth rates in foreign countries." In summary, Japan, on one hand, is doing well, but on the other, is experiencing stress caused by other central banks that are tightening their monetary policy and raising interest rates.

As experts note, the BoJ continues to maintain an ultra-accommodative monetary policy, persistently ignoring the risks of rising inflationary pressures in the country. On Tuesday, October 17, Bloomberg reported that the Bank of Japan's new core CPI forecast for the 2023 fiscal year is likely to approach 3.0%, compared to 2.5% previously.

The fact that interest rates in Japan remain very low due to yield curve control policy should lead to a further decline in the yen against the dollar. This decline could cease under two conditions: if the dollar interest rates decline or if the Bank of Japan abandons its YCC (Yield Curve Control) policy. Both could potentially begin to happen as early as mid-2024, but certainly not now. (Although one should not forget the possibility of currency interventions by the Japanese Ministry of Finance).

According to strategists at Societe Generale, "if we see further increases in yields in the U.S. and no more than a change in the inflation forecast by the Bank of Japan at its meeting on October 31, then another surge [in USD/JPY] above 150.00 is practically inevitable." "The yen has every chance of becoming one of the most successful currencies in 2024," Societe Generale believes, "but predicting when USD/JPY will peak is as easy or difficult as determining when the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds will peak."

Amid a prolonged atmosphere of uncertainty, USD/JPY ended the previous trading week at 149.85. When it comes to the pair's short-term outlook, a mere 15% of experts foresee a renewed push towards the 150.00 mark. An additional 20% predict a downward correction, while the majority, 65%, remain noncommittal. On the D1 timeframe, all trend indicators are unanimously signalling 'buy' with a green coloration. Likewise, 100% of oscillators are green, although 40% indicate that the pair may be overbought. Immediate support can be found in the 149.60 area, followed by zones at 148.30-148.65, 146.85-147.25, 145.90-146.10, 145.30, 144.45, 143.75-144.05, and finally 142.20. On the upside, resistance is present at 150.00-150.15, then at 150.40, followed by the October 2022 high of 151.90, and 153.15.

No significant economic data concerning the state of the Japanese economy is scheduled for release in the upcoming week. The only noteworthy item is the publication of the Tokyo Consumer Price Index on Friday, October 27.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: The Real Market Surge Triggered by Fake News About BTC-ETF

Undoubtedly, the most significant day of the past week was Monday, October 16. On this day, the bitcoin price soared to $30,102 before plummeting to $27,728. Following BTC, other digital assets also saw a sharp price increase, followed by a steep decline. According to Coinglass data, the price surge led to the liquidation of over 33,000 trading positions, with traders incurring losses totalling $154 million. Of this amount, bitcoin accounted for $92.0 million in losses, Ethereum for $22.7 million, and Solana for $4.6 million.

The surge in quotations occurred after Cointelegraph published news that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had approved BlackRock's application for a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). It was later revealed that the news was fake. Cointelegraph's editorial team apologized for publishing the false news. The publication clarified that one of their staff had seen the news about the SEC's approval of the BTC-ETF on Platform X (previously Twitter) and decided to publish it as quickly as possible without fact-checking or obtaining editorial approval. Representatives from the Commission also noted that "the best source of information about the SEC is the SEC itself" and advised users to "be cautious about what they read online.".

To understand this issue more deeply, it's helpful to look back to its origins in 2021. That year, a series of companies submitted applications to create such funds. Three years ago, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan explained that cryptocurrency futures ETFs are not particularly suitable for long-term investors due to high ancillary costs. It is only when spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds become available that institutional investors will begin large-scale capital inflows.

For clarification: A spot BTC-ETF is a fund whose shares are traded on an exchange, and which tracks the market, or spot price, of bitcoin. The primary idea behind such ETFs is to give institutional investors access to bitcoin trading without physically owning the asset, through a regulated and financially familiar product.

All applications submitted to the SEC in 2021 were rejected, leading to a hiatus that was interrupted on June 15, 2023. On that day, the situation dramatically changed: the financial world was abuzz with the news that investment giant BlackRock had submitted its application for a spot bitcoin trust. In an interview with Bloomberg, Hougan heralded the dawn of a new era. He stated, "We now have BlackRock raising the flag and declaring that bitcoin matters: that it is an asset institutional investors want to invest in. I believe we have entered a new era in cryptocurrency, which I call the foundational era, and I expect a multi-year bull trend that is just beginning."

Under the banner raised by BlackRock, seven more leading financial institutions also submitted similar applications to the SEC. Among them were global asset managers like Invesco and Fidelity, who, experts believe, have the capacity to absorb trillions of dollars. The ninth on the list was the asset management company GlobalX. They, along with several other financial giants, had entered the ETF race back in 2021, but were then thwarted by the SEC. Now, in August 2023, GlobalX made another attempt.

Owing to the initiatives of these investment titans, bitcoin experienced a meteoric rise starting in the latter half of June. It shattered the $25,000 resistance barrier, soared beyond $30,000, and peaked at $31,388 on June 23. This resulted in a weekly gain exceeding 26%. Following bitcoin's lead, altcoins like Ethereum also saw significant upward movement, registering approximately a 19% increase during the same period. However, due to subsequent regulatory pressures from the SEC and actions by the U.S. Federal Reserve, along with other negative news, the BTC/USD trading pair began to decline. It reached a low point of $24,296 on August 17.

And now, two months later, we see another surge and subsequent drop. What's next? It's a pertinent question, as the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs is expected to unleash a significant wave of adoption of this asset class by institutional investors. According to analysts at CryptoQuant, this could quickly propel the market capitalization of the crypto space by $1 trillion. In their opinion, the odds of this happening have significantly increased following the legal victories of Ripple and Grayscale against the SEC. Bloomberg analysts currently estimate these odds at 90%.

It's worth noting that the deadline for the SEC's decisions on the applications from BlackRock and other companies will arrive in March 2024. However, Mike Novogratz, the CEO of Galaxy Investment, believes that spot bitcoin ETFs could become a reality as early as this year. Larry Fink, the head of BlackRock, declined to comment on the status of their application but added that the October 16 rally was driven not so much by rumours of its approval but rather by a desire among people to use quality assets, which he believes includes bitcoin, gold, and Treasury bonds.

Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital and former White House Communications Director, believes that the leading cryptocurrency is "in many ways even more valuable than gold," and could "easily" achieve a market capitalization of $15 trillion. According to his calculations, such a capitalization would propel the price of bitcoin to approximately $700,000.

Scaramucci asserts that the current financial system is "broken." "Strange things could happen when you see countries that are hostile to the U.S. trading in bitcoin or other assets to distance themselves from the dollar. This is because the United States has used its currency to assert its own geopolitical will," he said.

Opinions within the crypto industry regarding the near-term future of bitcoin (BTC) are divided. A study conducted by Finbold revealed that a substantial number of experts do not rule out the possibility of BTC/USD climbing to $100,000 or even $200,000. Finbold specialists also sought forecasts from the artificial intelligence PricePredictions. According to AI calculations, after the approval of a bitcoin ETF, the flagship crypto asset could swiftly reach the $100,000 range. PricePredictions noted that additional factors like mainstream bitcoin adoption, institutional investor actions, regulatory activity, and overall macroeconomic conditions will be significant.

Trader, analyst, and founder of venture firm Eight, Michael Van De Poppe, believes that the October 16th fake news will not hinder the cryptocurrency's growth. According to his observations, the coin has already entered a phase of positive momentum. "The trend is already upward. The lows we're seeing now offer a buying opportunity. A bitcoin ETF will eventually enter the market; it's just not happening today," said the Eight CEO.

Authors of the analytical channel Root in X (formerly known as "Twitter") also think that the fake news did not exert significant pressure on the cryptocurrency. In their opinion, the coin's pump, despite the subsequent correction, has actually helped improve its position. However, there is also a sizable portion of the crypto community that supports a bearish outlook, suggesting the coin could drop to the $19,000-$23,000 range.

On Friday, October 20, BTC/USD made another attempt to breach the $30,000 mark, reaching a high of $30,207 before retreating. At the time of writing this overview, it is trading at $29,570. The overall market capitalization of the crypto market stands at $1.120 trillion, up from $1.046 trillion a week ago. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has risen over the week from 44 to 53 points, moving from the 'Fear' zone into the 'Neutral' zone.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Forex | Forex Trading | NordFX

 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

– Bitcoin experienced a rapid ascent on October 23 and 24, reaching a level of $35,188 for the first time since May 2022. This surge in the value of the leading cryptocurrency was driven by a combination of real-world events and high-impact speculative and false news related to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
For instance, Reuters and Bloomberg reported that the SEC would not contest the court's decision in favour of Grayscale Investments. (To recap, at the end of August, the court granted Grayscale's lawsuit challenging the regulator's refusal to approve its application to launch a bitcoin ETF. Consequently, the company has effectively obtained permission from the U.S. court to convert its flagship fund, GBTC, into a spot bitcoin ETF). Additionally, there was news of the SEC discontinuing its legal proceedings against Ripple and its executives.
Discussions also revolved around the potential approval of an ETF for Ethereum and rumours of BlackRock's spot BTC-ETF gaining approval. BlackRock confirmed last week that this news was false. Nevertheless, the short squeeze prompted by this counterfeit news somewhat bolstered the cryptocurrency's growth, unsettling the market. The initial local trend gained momentum due to a series of liquidations of short positions opened with substantial leverage. According to Coinglass, a total of $161 million worth of such positions were liquidated.
Undoubtedly, the news was fabricated, but as the saying goes, there's no smoke without fire. A spot exchange-traded fund on bitcoin by BlackRock, named iShares Bitcoin Trust, appeared on the list maintained by the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC). BlackRock informed the SEC about the planned commencement of a seed round in October for its spot BTC-ETF, and it may have already initiated the acquisition of cryptocurrency for this purpose. This also fueled speculations and rumors that approval for their ETF is inevitable.
In discussing the catalysts for bitcoin's surge, it's also essential to mention the drop in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) to monthly lows on October 23rd, a decline attributed to the reduction in 10-year treasury yields. Additionally, several experts believe that technical factors played a role - technical analysis has long signaled the possibility of a bull rally after breaking out of a sideways trend.

– Another reason cited by experts for bitcoin's rise is the inflation issues in the United States and geopolitical risks such as the escalation of tensions in the Middle East. As explained by Zach Pandl, the Managing Director of Grayscale Investments, many investors view bitcoin as "digital gold" and aim to use it to minimize financial risks. According to CoinShares, investments in crypto funds increased by $66 million last week, marking the fourth consecutive week of capital inflow.

– Optimism regarding the SEC registration of many spot bitcoin ETFs has increased, and a positive decision is expected "within months." This conclusion has been drawn by analysts at JPMorgan. Specialists have taken note of the lack of an SEC appeal against the court's decision in the Grayscale case. The regulator has been instructed not to obstruct the transformation of the bitcoin trust into an exchange-traded fund. "The timing of approval [...] remains uncertain, but it is likely to occur [...] by January 10, 2024 - the final deadline for the ARK Invest and 21 Co. applications. This is the earliest of various final deadlines to which the SEC must respond," noted JPMorgan. Experts also emphasize that the Commission may choose to approve all proposals at once to ensure fair competition.

– In the distant future, the security of the first cryptocurrency is threatened not by quantum computing but by changes in the reward model for miners. This statement was made by Dr. Lawrence H. White, a professor of economics at George Mason University. According to him, after the last bitcoin is mined, which is expected to occur around 2140, the primary source of income for miners will be transaction fees. "People are concerned that it may not be possible to attract a sufficient number of miners to ensure the system's security," White warned. At the same time, the professor emphasized that at the current moment, the first cryptocurrency is protected from hacking because an attack on its network using quantum computers is not in the miners' interests.
White considers it unlikely that bitcoin will be used as a means of payment. Although, according to him, other cryptocurrencies that provide "more stable purchasing power" could assume that role.

– Peter Schiff, the President of Euro Pacific Capital, and a critic of the first cryptocurrency, has stated, "It's not a resource; it's nothing." He also likened holders of the asset to a cult. "No one needs bitcoin. People only buy it after others persuade them to do so. After acquiring [BTC], they immediately try to convince others to join in. It's like a cult," Schiff wrote.

– Opinions among members of the crypto community about BTC's future have diverged. Many market participants are confident that a positive news backdrop will support the further rise of the cryptocurrency. For example, Will Clemente, the co-founder of Reflexivity Research, believes that the behavior of the coin should unsettle the bears who planned to buy BTC at a lower price. The forecast of a trader and analyst known as Titan of Crypto implies that the coin will move to $40,000 by November 2023. Optimists are also joined by Michael Van De Poppe, the founder of the venture company Eight, and Charles Edwards, the founder of Capriole Fund.
However, there are those who believe that BTC won't continue to rise. For instance, analysts Trader_J and Doctor Profit are confident that after hitting a local maximum, the coin will enter into a prolonged correction. Their forecast does not rule out a drop in the BTC/USD pair to $24,000-$26,000 by the end of the year. A negative BTC forecast was also supported by a trader known as Ninja. In his view, the technical analysis, which includes an analysis of gaps on CME (gaps between the opening and closing prices of Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange), indicates a likelihood of BTC dropping to $20,000.

– The company Matrixport has published an analytical report discussing the growing FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) effect in the cryptocurrency market. Analysts cite their proprietary trading indicators, which allow them to successfully forecast digital asset prices. In their view, by the end of the year, the price of Bitcoin could reach $40,000, and in the event of the approval of a Bitcoin ETF, it could rise to $56,000.
(FOMO - Fear of Missing Out is a term that describes situations where the fear of missing opportunities or valuable resources leads to specific actions. Examples include investments driven by the fear of being left behind while others are making profits.).

– Investor and author of the bestseller "Rich Dad, Poor Dad," Robert Kiyosaki, has stated that once physical gold surpasses the $2,000 threshold (the current price is $1,975), bitcoin will move towards $100,000, with the next target being $135,000. Kiyosaki expressed scepticism regarding the value of the U.S. dollar, referring to it as counterfeit.

– Hal Finney was the first recipient of BTC. Consequently, many members of the crypto community speculate that the late Hal Finney might indeed be the enigmatic Satoshi Nakamoto. However, Jameson Lopp, a former Chief Engineer at BitGo and co-founder of Casa, conducted an investigation and became convinced that Finney is not the creator of the first cryptocurrency. Lopp discovered that Satoshi Nakamoto sent an email to Bitcoin developer Mike Hearn just 2 minutes before Finney completed a 10-mile race in Santa Barbara, California. Given that Finney was running for 1 hour and 18 minutes, it seems implausible that he could have been at a computer to send that email to Mike Hearn.

– As it turns out, traders in Thailand are using Tarot cards and astrology to predict price movements. For example, a popular astrologer who goes by the name Pimfah leads a Facebook group with over 160,000 members. There are also predictors on YouTube, like Ajarn Ton, who has over 26,000 subscribers. His channel features hundreds of videos, and in one of the recent ones, he predicts a 50,000% rise in the altcoin Terra Luna Classic. Considering that the project has collapsed and been abandoned for a long time, it's unlikely that this prediction will come true. However, there have been successful predictions as well. For instance, in August 2022, a well-known local predictor named Mor Plai forecasted the recovery of the crypto market. Several months later, this prediction made headlines in Thai newspapers.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Forex | Forex Trading | NordFX

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 30 - November 03, 2023​

EUR/USD: Awaiting the Pair at 1.0200?

Having started the past week on a positive note, EUR/USD approached a significant support/resistance level at the 1.0700 zone on Tuesday, October 24, before reversing and sharply declining. According to several analysts, the correction of the DXY Dollar Index that began on October 3rd, which correspondingly drove EUR/USD northward, has come to an end.

The trigger for the trend reversal was disappointing data on business activity (PMI) in Germany and the Eurozone, which fell short of forecasts and dropped below the key 50.0-point mark, indicating a deteriorating economic climate. These figures, remaining at a five-year low, starkly contrasted with similar indicators from the United States, which were released on the same day and exceeded both forecasts and the 50.0-point level. (As noted by proponents of technical analysis, the decline was also facilitated by the fact that as EUR/USD approached 1.0700, it hit its 50-day MA.)

In addition to PMI, preliminary U.S. GDP data for Q3, released on Thursday, October 26, served as further evidence that the American economy is coping well with a year and a half of aggressive monetary tightening. The annualized figures were significantly higher than both previous values and forecasts. Economic growth reached 4.9% compared to 2.1% and 4.2%, respectively. (It's worth noting that despite this growth, experts from the Wall Street Journal predict a GDP slowdown to 0.9%, which has led to a drop in the yield of U.S. Treasury bonds and slightly stalled the rise of the DXY.).

Also on Thursday, October 26, a European Central Bank (ECB) meeting took place, where the Governing Council members were expected to decide on the Eurozone interest rate. According to the consensus forecast, the rate was expected to remain at the current level of 4.50%, which indeed occurred. Market participants were more interested in the statements and comments made by the European Central Bank's leadership. From ECB President Christine Lagarde's remarks, it was inferred that the ECB is conducting "effective monetary policy, particularly in the banking sector." Nevertheless, the situation in Europe is not ideal. "Interest rates have likely reached their peak, but the Governing Council does not rule out an increase," she stated. Now more than ever, a data-dependent policy should be adopted. Inaction is sometimes also an action.

Apart from raising rates and maintaining the status quo, there is a third option: lowering rates. Madam Lagarde dismissed this route, stating that discussing a rate cut at this time is premature. However, market sentiment suggests that the ECB will formally announce the end of the current rate-hiking cycle at one of its upcoming meetings. Furthermore, derivatives indicate that the easing of the European regulator's monetary policy could start as early as April, with the likelihood of this happening by June being close to 100%. All of this could lead to a long-term depreciation of the European currency.

Certainly, the U.S. dollar benefits from a higher current interest rate (5.50% vs. 4.50%), as well as different economic dynamics and resilience to stress between the U.S. and Eurozone economies. Furthermore, the dollar is attractive as a safe-haven asset. These factors, along with expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will turn dovish before the Federal Reserve does, lead experts to predict a continuing downtrend for EUR/USD. However, considering the likelihood of a significant slowdown in U.S. GDP growth, some analysts believe the pair may stabilize within a sideways channel in the short term. For instance, economists at Singapore's United Overseas Bank (UOB) anticipate that the pair will likely trade in the range of 1.0510-1.0690 over the next 1-3 weeks.

Looking at forecasts for the end of the year, strategists from the Japanese financial holding company Nomura identify several other catalysts driving down EUR/USD: 1) deteriorating global risk sentiment due to rising bond yields; 2) widening yield spreads between German and Italian bonds; 3) reduced political uncertainty in the U.S., as the likelihood of a government shutdown diminishes; and 4) geopolitical tensions in the Middle East serving as a potential trigger for rising crude oil prices. Nomura believes that recent positive news about China's economic growth is unlikely to sufficiently offset these factors, keeping market participants bearish on the euro. Based on these elements, and even assuming that the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged next week, Nomura forecasts that the EUR/USD rate will fall to 1.0200 by year's end.

Strategists from Wells Fargo, part of the "big four" U.S. banks, expect the pair to reach the 1.0200 level slightly later, at the beginning of 2024. A bearish sentiment is also maintained by economists from ING, the largest banking group in the Netherlands.

Following the release of data on U.S. personal consumption expenditure, which aligned perfectly with forecasts, EUR/USD closed the past week at a level of 1.0564. Expert opinions on its near-term outlook are mixed: 45% advocate for a strengthening dollar, 30% favour the euro, and 25% maintain a neutral position. In terms of technical analysis, the D1 chart oscillators provide no clear direction: 30% point downward, 20% upward, and 50% remain neutral. Trend indicators offer more clarity: 90% look downward, while only 10% point upward. Immediate support levels for the pair are around 1.0500-1.0530, followed by 1.0450, 1.0375, 1.0200-1.0255, 1.0130, and 1.0000. Resistance for the bulls lies in the ranges of 1.0600-1.0620, 1.0740-1.0770, 1.0800, 1.0865, and 1.0945-1.0975.

The upcoming week promises to be packed with significant events. On Monday, October 30, we'll receive GDP and inflation (CPI) data from Germany. On Tuesday, October 31, retail sales figures from this engine of the European economy will be released, along with preliminary data on Eurozone-wide GDP and CPI. On Wednesday, November 1, employment levels in the U.S. private sector and Manufacturing PMI data will be published. The day will also feature the most critical event: the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, where an interest rate decision will be made. The consensus forecast suggests that rates will remain unchanged. Therefore, market participants will be particularly interested in statements and comments from the leaders of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

On Thursday, November 2, we'll find out the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. The torrent of labour market data will continue on Friday, November 3. As is traditional on the first Friday of the month, we can expect another round of key macro statistics, including the unemployment rate and the number of new non-farm jobs created in the United States.

GBP/USD: Awaiting the Pair at 1.1600?

Last week's published data indicated that although the UK's unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.2%, the number of jobless claims amounted to 20.4K. This figure is significantly higher than both the previous value of 9.0K and the forecast of 2.3K. The Confederation of British Industry's (CBI) October data on major retailers' retail sales revealed that the Retail Sales Index dropped from -14 to -36 points, marking its lowest level since March 2021. Furthermore, analysts fear that the situation could deteriorate in November as households face pressure from high prices, leading them to significantly cut back on spending.

According to ING's forecast, in the short-term, risks for the pound remain skewed towards a decline to the key support level of 1.2000. Transitioning to medium-term expectations, Wells Fargo economists believe that not just the European but also the British currency will trend downward. "Europe's poor performance compared to the U.S. should exert pressure on both currencies," they write. "The ECB and the Bank of England have signalled that interest rates have likely reached their peak, which weakens the currencies' support from interest rates. Against this backdrop, we expect the pound to weaken [...] in early 2024, targeting a minimum for GBP/USD around 1.1600."

The Bank of England (BoE) is scheduled to hold a meeting on Thursday, November 2, following the Federal Reserve meeting earlier in the week. According to forecasts, the British regulator is expected to leave its monetary policy parameters unchanged, maintaining the interest rate at 5.25%, similar to the actions taken by the ECB and the Fed. However, given the high inflation rates in the United Kingdom, which exceed those of its main economic competitors, the BoE's rhetoric could be more hawkish than that of Madame Lagarde. In such a case, the pound may find some support against the European currency, but this is unlikely to offer much help against the dollar.

GBP/USD closed the past week at a level of 1.2120. When polled about the pair's near-term future, 50% of analysts voted for its rise. Only 20% believe the pair will continue its movement towards the target of 1.2000, while the remaining 30% maintain a neutral stance. Trend indicators on the D1 chart are unanimously bearish, with 100% pointing to a decline and coloured in red. Oscillators are slightly less conclusive: 80% indicate a decline (of which 15% are in the oversold zone), 10% suggest a rise, and the remaining 10% are in a neutral grey colour. In terms of support levels and zones, should the pair move downward, it would encounter support at 1.2000-1.2040, 1.1960, and 1.1800-1.1840, followed by 1.1720, 1.1595-1.1625, and 1.1450-1.1475. If the pair rises, it will meet resistance at 1.2145-1.2175, 1.2190-1.2215, 1.2280, 1.2335, 1.2450, 1.2550-1.2575, and 1.2690-1.2710.

Aside from the aforementioned Bank of England meeting on November 2, no other significant events concerning the British economy are anticipated for the upcoming week.

USD/JPY: Awaiting the Pair at 152.80?

The Japanese yen remains the weakest among the currencies of developed nations. USD/JPY has been rising throughout the year, and on Thursday, October 26, it reached a new annual high of 150.77. The primary reason for this trend, as we have frequently emphasized in our reviews, is the disparity in monetary policies between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and other leading central banks. The BoJ shows no signs of relinquishing its ultra-accommodative monetary policy, maintaining its interest rate at a negative -0.1%. With the Federal Reserve's rate standing at +5.50%, a simple carry-trade operation exchanging yen for dollars provides substantial returns due to this rate difference.

The yen is also not helped by the easing control over the yield curve of Japanese government bonds. Currently, the yield on 10-year bonds can deviate from zero by no more than 0.5%. At its July meeting, the BoJ decided that this range would be more of a guideline than a hard boundary. However, subsequent experience has shown that any notable deviation from this range triggers the BoJ to buy bonds, which again leads to yen weakening.

Even the currency interventions conducted on October 3, when USD/JPY exceeded the 150.00 mark, failed to support the yen. The pair was temporarily brought down to 147.26, but it quickly rebounded and is now once again approaching the 150.00 level.

Leaders of Japan's Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank continually attempt to bolster their currency with reassuring yet rather vague statements, asserting that Japan's overall financial system remains stable and that they are closely monitoring exchange rates. However, as evident, their words have had limited impact. On the past Friday, October 27, Hirokazu Matsuno, the Chief Cabinet Secretary, added to the ambiguity. According to him, he expects the Bank of Japan to conduct appropriate monetary policy in line with objectives for achieving stable and sustainable price levels. While this sounds very good, understanding its implications is also very challenging. What exactly constitutes "appropriate" policy? And where does this elusive "target price level" stand?

According to experts at Germany's Commerzbank, "not everything in Japan's monetary and foreign exchange policy is always logical." "The market is likely to continue testing higher levels in USD/JPY," forecast the bank's economists. "Then there are two possible scenarios: either the Ministry of Finance conducts another intervention, or the yen's depreciation accelerates as the market starts to price out the risk of intervention."

"In the medium to long term," Commerzbank analysts continue, "an intervention won't be able to prevent a depreciation of the currency, especially if the Bank of Japan keeps exerting pressure on the yen by maintaining its ultra-expansionary monetary policy. Therefore, the only logical response would be, at the very least, a gradual normalization of monetary policy, possibly through further easing of the yield curve control (YCC). However, there is no certainty that easing the YCC would be sufficient, nor is there any certainty that the Bank of Japan will change anything in its meeting on Tuesday [October 31]."

As a result, analysts at the French bank Societe Generale believe that current dynamics favour a continuation of the upward movement. The next potential hurdles, in their opinion, lie at the 151.25 level and in the zone of last year's highs of 152.00-152.80. A key support zone is at 149.30-148.85, but overcoming this area would be necessary to confirm a short-term decline.

USD/JPY closed the past trading week at a level of 149.63. When discussing its near-term prospects, analysts are evenly split: 50% predict the pair will rise, and 50% anticipate a decline. Trend indicators on the D1 chart show 65% in green, indicating bullishness, and 35% in red, signalling bearishness. Among oscillators, there is unanimous lack of sentiment for a downward move. 50% point north, and the remaining 50% indicate a sideways trend. The nearest support levels are situated in the zones of 148.30-148.70, followed by 146.85-147.30, 145.90-146.10, 145.30, 144.45, 143.75-144.05, and 142.20. The closest resistance lies at 150.00-150.15, then 150.40-150.80, followed by 151.90 (October 2022 high) and 152.80-153.15.

No significant economic data pertaining to the state of the Japanese economy is scheduled for release in the upcoming week. Naturally, attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's meeting on Tuesday, October 31, although no major surprises are expected. Traders should also be aware that Friday, November 3, is a public holiday in Japan as the country observes Culture Day.

A bit of reassuring information for proponents of the Japanese currency comes from Wells Fargo. They anticipate that "if the Federal Reserve does indeed cut rates, and even if the Bank of Japan continues to gradually tighten monetary policy, the yield differential should shift in favour of the yen in the long term." Wells Fargo strategists forecast that "by the end of next year, USD/JPY could be heading toward 146.00."

This American bank's outlook may instil optimism in traders who opened short positions at 150.00. However, what course of action should be taken by those who pressed 'Sell' in January 2023 when the pair was trading at 127.00?

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Start of a Bull Rally or Another Bull Trap?

Today's cryptocurrency market review is decidedly optimistic, and for good reason. On October 23-24, bitcoin surged to $35,188 for the first time since May 2022. The rise in the leading cryptocurrency occurred amid a mix of tangible events, speculative buzz, and fake news related to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

For instance, Reuters and Bloomberg reported that the SEC will not appeal a court ruling in favour of Grayscale Investments. Additionally, news emerged that the SEC is discontinuing its lawsuit against Ripple and its executives. Speculation also abounded regarding potential SEC approval of an Ethereum ETF and rumours of a spot BTC-ETF approval for BlackRock. Last week, BlackRock confirmed that the latter news was false. However, the short squeeze triggered by this fake news facilitated the coin's rise, shaking up the market. The initial local trend was amplified by a cascade of liquidations of short positions opened with significant leverage. According to Coinglass, a total of $161 million in such positions was liquidated.

While the news was fake, the saying goes, "Where there's smoke, there's fire." BlackRock's spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund, iShares Bitcoin Trust, appeared on the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC) list. BlackRock itself informed the SEC about its plans to initiate a test seed round in October for its spot BTC-ETF, potentially already beginning its cryptocurrency purchasing. This too fuelled speculation and rumours that the approval of its ETF is inevitable.

Moreover, according to some experts, technical factors contributed to the rise in quotes. Technical analysis had long pointed to a possible bull rally following an exit from the sideways trend.

Some analysts believe that another trigger for bitcoin's surge was the decline of the Dollar Index (DXY) to monthly lows on October 23. However, this point is debatable. We have previously noted that bitcoin has recently lost both its inverse and direct correlations, becoming "decoupled" from both the U.S. currency and stock market indices. The chart shows that on October 24, the dollar reversed its trend and began to rise. Risk assets like the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq Composite indices responded to this with sharp declines. But not BTC/USD, which shifted to a sideways movement around the Pivot Point of $34,000.

While the S&P 500 has been in a bearish trend for 13 weeks, BTC has been rising since August 17 despite challenges. During this period, the leading cryptocurrency has gained approximately 40%. Looking at a more extended timeframe, over the last three years, bitcoin has grown by 147% (as of October 20, 2023), while the S&P 500 has increased by only 26%.

Last week, the average BTC holder returned to profitability. According to calculations by analytics agency Glassnode, the average acquisition cost for investors was $29,800. For short-term holders (coins with less than 6 months of inactivity), this figure stands at $28,000. As of the writing of this review, their profit is approximately 20%.

The situation is somewhat different for long-term hodlers. They rarely react to even significant market upheavals, aiming for substantial profits over a multi-year horizon. In 2023, over 30% of the coins they held were in a drawdown, but this did not deter them from continuing to accumulate. Currently, holdings for this investor category amount to a record 14.9 million BTC, equivalent to 75% of the total circulating supply. The most notable and largest among such "whales" is MicroStrategy Incorporated. The company purchased its first batch of bitcoin in September 2020 at a price of $11,600 per coin. Subsequent acquisitions occurred during both market upswings and downturns, and it now owns 158,245 BTC, having spent $4.7 billion on the asset. Therefore, MicroStrategy's unrealized profit stands at approximately $0.65 billion, or roughly 13.6%.

The anticipation of the imminent launch of spot BTC ETFs in the U.S. is fuelling institutional interest in cryptocurrency. However, due to regulatory hurdles posed by the SEC, this interest is mostly deferred, according to analysts at Ernst & Young. By some estimates, this pent-up demand amounts to around $15 trillion, which could potentially drive BTC/USD to $200,000 in the long term. What can be said for certain is that open interest in futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has surpassed a record 100,000 BTC, and daily trading volume has reached $1.8 billion.

Another driver of increased activity, according to experts, is the inflationary concerns in the U.S. and geopolitical risks such as the escalating situation in the Middle East. Zach Pandl, Managing Director of Grayscale Investments, explained that many investors view bitcoin as "digital gold" and seek to minimize financial risks through it. According to CoinShares, investments in crypto funds increased by $66 million last week; this marks the fourth consecutive week of inflows.

According to experts at JPMorgan, a positive decision from the SEC on the registration of the first spot bitcoin ETFs can be expected "within months." The specialists noted the absence of an SEC appeal against the court decision in the Grayscale case. The regulator has been instructed not to obstruct the transformation of the bitcoin trust into an exchange-traded fund. "The timelines for approval remain uncertain, but it is likely to happen [...] by January 10, 2024, the final deadline for the ARK Invest and 21 Co. application. This is the earliest of various final deadlines by which the SEC must respond," noted the experts at JPMorgan. They also emphasized that the Commission, in the interest of maintaining fair competition, may approve all pending applications simultaneously.

The future price behaviour of bitcoin is a topic of divided opinion within the crypto community. Matrixport has published an analytical report discussing the rising FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) effect. Their analysts rely on proprietary indicators that enable them to make favourable predictions for digital assets. They believe that by year-end, bitcoin could reach $40,000 and may climb to $56,000 if a bitcoin ETF is approved.

Many market participants are confident that a positive news backdrop will continue to support further cryptocurrency growth. For instance, Will Clemente, co-founder of Reflexivity Research, believes that the coin's behaviour should unsettle bears planning to buy cheaper BTC. A trader and analyst known as Titan of Crypto predicts the coin to move towards $40,000 by November 2023. Optimism is also shared by Michael Van De Poppe, founder of venture company Eight, and Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Fund.

However, there are those who believe that BTC will not make further gains. Analysts Trader_J and Doctor Profit, for example, are certain that after reaching a new local maximum, the coin will enter an extended correction. Their forecast does not rule out a decline of BTC/USD to $24,000-$26,000 by year-end. A trader known as Ninja supports this negative bitcoin outlook. According to him, the technical picture, which includes an analysis of gaps on CME (the space between the opening and closing prices of bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange), suggests the likelihood of BTC falling to $20,000.

As of the time of writing this review, on Friday, October 27, BTC/USD is trading at $33,800. The overall market capitalization of the crypto market stands at $1.25 trillion, up from $1.12 trillion a week ago. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has risen over the week from 53 points to 72, moving from the Neutral zone into the Greed zone. It recorded its 2023 peak before slightly retreating and currently stands at 70 points. It's worth noting that just a month ago, the Index was in the Fear zone. Similar explosive rises in market sentiment were previously recorded in mid-2020 and mid-2021, correlating with price increases.

In conclusion of this generally optimistic overview, let's introduce a bit of pessimism from Peter Schiff, President of Euro Pacific Capital. This long-time critic of the leading cryptocurrency stated that bitcoin is "not an asset, it's nothing." He also likened bitcoin holders to a cult, saying, "No one needs bitcoin. People buy it only after someone else convinces them to do so. After acquiring [BTC], they immediately try to draw others into it. It's like a cult," wrote Schiff.

However, it's worth noting that this is a very large and rapidly growing "cult." If in 2016 the number of BTC holders was just 1.2 million, by May 2023, according to various sources, global ownership is estimated at 420 million, or 5.1% of the world's population.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Forex | Forex Trading | NordFX

 

[Stan NordFX]

October Results: Top 3 NordFX Traders' Profit Nears 400,000 USD

NordFX brokerage company has summarized the trading performance of its clients for October 2023. Additionally, the social trading services and the profit earned by the company's IB partners were evaluated.

The past month proved highly fruitful for the company's clients. The undisputed leader was a trader from Western Asia, account #1691XXX, with a profit amounting to 185,095 USD. This remarkable result was achieved from trades involving gold (XAU/USD), the euro (EUR/USD), and the British pound (GBP/USD).

- Taking the second spot on the podium with an impressive profit of 129,150 USD was a representative from South Asia, account No.1720XXX. Their profit was derived from trading currency pairs GBP/USD, EUR/USD, and USD/JPY.

- Gold (XAU/USD) enabled another trader from Western Asia, account No.1696XXX, to earn 83,980 USD, securing a spot among the top three.

In the PAMM service, the "Trade and earn" account continues to attract the attention of passive investors. It was opened 601 days ago but remained dormant until it was revived in November 2022. Since then, the account's yield has exceeded 205% with a relatively small drawdown of less than 17%. It's worth noting that past performance does not guarantee similar returns in the future. As always, we urge investors to exercise utmost caution when investing their funds.

On the PAMM service showcase, two long-standing accounts remain, which we've frequently mentioned in previous reports. These are "KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA" and "TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3". Recall that on November 14, 2022, they faced significant losses, with drawdowns nearing 43%. However, the PAMM managers chose to persevere, and by October 31, 2023, the first account's profit surpassed 116%, and the second's reached 78%

The top 3 IB partners of NordFX for October are as follows:

- The highest commission of 13,469 USD was credited to a partner from South Asia, account No.1576XXX.
- Second place went to the holder of account No.1645XXX from Western Asia, who received 11,869 USD. Remarkably, this partner has been among the top three for six consecutive months. Over this period, thye accumulated earnings of approximately 70,000 USD.
- Lastly, rounding off the top 3 is another partner from South Asia with account No.1700XXX, who received a reward of 7,124 USD.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Forex | Forex Trading | NordFX

 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

– October 31 is bitcoin's birthday. On this very day in 2008, an individual or group using the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto published a document titled "bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System". However, it's worth noting that bitcoin only made its debut as a cryptocurrency in the market on January 3, 2009. On this day, a block was mined containing the date and a brief excerpt from The Times article: "The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks".
On January 12, 2009, Nakamoto executed the first transaction on the network, sending cryptocurrency to developer Hal Finney. That same year, bitcoin was listed on the New Liberty Standard exchange. On this platform, one could purchase 1309 BTC for just $1 (worth nearly $55 million today).

– According to experts at CoinGecko, the "Uptober effect" is a reality, not merely an internet meme. (The term is derived from the combination of the words "up" and "October"). In eight out of the past ten years, the cryptocurrency market has shown growth in October compared to the preceding month. On average, the "Uptober effect" results in a 14% increase in the total market capitalization of digital assets – ranging from 7.3% in 2022 to 42.9% in 2021, as calculated by CoinGecko. The exceptions were in 2014 and 2018 when the market declined by 12.7% and 8.3% respectively over the month.
This year, starting from $27,000 on October 1st, bitcoin tested the $35,000 mark by October 24th, reflecting an approximately 30% growth. Even more significant rallies were shown by altcoins like Solana (SOL) and Chainlink (LINK).

– "Bitcoin is gold for the young," opined billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller, a former associate of George Soros at the Quantum Fund. "I'm 70 years old, and I have gold. I was taken aback when bitcoin started to emerge. But it's evident that the younger generation views it as a savings mechanism because it's much more convenient to handle," he observed. He believes that the foremost cryptocurrency has attained a brand stature akin to the precious metal, which has maintained its allure for 5,000 years. "I have an affinity for both. I don't possess bitcoin, but perhaps I should," Druckenmiller remarked.

– Peter Schiff, another "gold bug" and the head of Euro Pacific Capital, posits that the final nod from the SEC for spot bitcoin ETFs will spell the end for the bullish rally of the principal cryptocurrency. Currently, bitcoin is trading around $35,000, as speculators are banking on a favourable regulatory decision. This optimism might very well represent the zenith of the rally unless bitcoin sells off sooner. In Schiff's view, crypto traders might commence offloading coins, locking in profits even prior to any definitive decision from the SEC.

– A well-known bitcoin maximalist, TV host, and founder of Heisenberg Capital, Max Keiser, went on a tirade, dubbing Ethereum a "shitcoin" and its creator, Vitalik Buterin, a "terrorist". "Shitcoins like ETH, XRP, BNB, ADA, and thousands of others are crafted by financial terrorists and are indubitably employed to fund terrorism. Do your job and incarcerate everyone associated with these coins!" Keiser urged law enforcement. This former trader perceives bitcoin as distinct from other digital assets since it embodies a digital commodity designed to combat central banks and criminals vested with power. According to Keiser, in contrast, shitcoins were merely concocted to destabilize the financial system. Keiser's statement predictably drew a torrent of criticism. The blunter members of the crypto community labelled him a scammer, wishing him behind bars. The more courteous individuals advised the TV host to delve into the documentation of other cryptocurrencies to fathom their nuances.

– According to Guy Gotslak, co-founder and president of My Digital Money, Ethereum will reach $10,000 sooner than many expect. He believes that ETH has all the fundamentals required for significant growth, and it will be a walk to the top, not a giant leap.
During the recent cryptocurrency market rally, Ethereum increased by 21%, and the majority of the crypto industry participants believe that bitcoin's growth influenced ETH's rise. However, Gotslak thinks otherwise, being confident that the price movement of the main altcoin is independent of what happens with bitcoin.
The trading expert is optimistic about ETH's prospects, as he believes the market is looking for a safe haven. His confidence is also based on the numerous use cases of the Ethereum blockchain, which has been chosen by several Fortune 500 companies. Gotslak asserts that, with further technological advancements, this blockchain will become the most used, and ETH will become the most popular cryptocurrency.

– Michael Van De Poppe, founder of the venture company Eight and CEO of MN Trading, believes that bitcoin has officially entered a bullish market phase. The expert thinks the asset is ready for a rally to $50,000, after which a pullback will occur, followed by a new all-time high (ATH). Van De Poppe noted that BTC would face resistance at the $38,000 level but would likely continue to rise, reaching $45,000-50,000 by January 2024. However, he also mentions that a drop below $33,000 is still possible and sees it as an excellent opportunity for long positions.
Van De Poppe predicts that after the April halving, there will be a consolidation and sideways movement for an extended period before bitcoin begins to set new highs.
Look Into Bitcoin creators also believe that after BTC surpassed the $34,000 mark, it started the early phase of the bullish market. The next targets are $41,900 and $65,050.
A trader by the nickname Rekt Capital is less optimistic, expecting a significant drop by March 2024. After the halving, the expert anticipates a consolidation in the $24,000-30,000 range and then a parabolic growth to six-digit figures.

– In an interview with CNBC, renowned cryptocurrency enthusiast Anthony Pompliano expressed optimism about bitcoin's bullish trend. He emphasized that BTC's price rise is due to solid demand and supply. "Bitcoin is the most disciplined central bank in the world. [...] Bitcoin's supply is limited to 21 million coins, and this starkly contrasts with central banks that can issue an unlimited amount of money and bonds. Due to bitcoin's scarcity and its decentralized nature, it has become an attractive asset, especially during times of economic uncertainty," stated Pompliano.

– In the US, bitcoin mining is beginning to be used for heating saunas. Such a sauna has started operating in Brooklyn, New York. The heat generated by mining equipment is used as the source of water heating. As saunas become increasingly popular among Americans, this development benefits miners, as it adds another point to the discussion on the public benefit or significance of such entrepreneurial activity.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Forex | Forex Trading | NordFX

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 06 - 10, 2023​

EUR/USD: A Bad Week for the Dollar

Throughout the week, the Dollar Index DXY, along with EUR/USD, appeared to be riding the waves, moving up and down. At the beginning of the week, preliminary data for Europe was released. In terms of annual growth, the GDP of the Eurozone in the third quarter was only 0.1%, which fell short of both the forecast of 0.2% and the previous figure of 0.5%. In addition, inflation took a downward turn – in October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 2.9% (year-on-year), missing the forecast of 3.1% and the previous month's 4.3%.

The European Central Bank meeting took place on October 26, during which the members of the Governing Council unsurprisingly left the interest rate unchanged at 4.50%. Now, market participants were eagerly anticipating the decision of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve, scheduled for Wednesday, November 1. On the eve of the FOMC meeting, the dollar, regarded as a safe-haven asset, received support due to increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Additionally, strong macroeconomic data from the United States favoured the American currency. The country's GDP in the third quarter surged by 4.9%, significantly surpassing the previous figure of 2.1%. Another surprise came from the ADP private sector employment data: the change in the number of employed individuals in the private sector reached 113K, compared to 89K the previous month.

Market participants had a sense that in such a situation, the Federal Reserve (FOMC) might well continue tightening monetary policy, especially since inflation is still far from the target level of 2.0%. Against this backdrop, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds once again approached the 5.0% level, and the Dollar Index (DXY) rose to 107.00.

However, November 1 brought complete disappointment to the dollar bulls. For the second consecutive month, the FOMC left the key interest rate unchanged at 5.50%. What's worse is that if after the September meeting, the market believed that the cost of borrowing would rise to 5.75% by the end of this year, the probability of such an increase has now plummeted to 14%. The Dollar also received no support from the rhetoric of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell during the press conference following the current meeting.

The situation could have been rectified by the data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), traditionally published on the first Friday of the month, which was on November 3. However, the number of non-farm payroll (NFP) employees in the country only increased by 150K in October. This figure turned out to be lower than both the market's expectations of 180K and the revised September growth, which was adjusted from 336K to 297K. The unemployment rate rose during the same period from 3.8% to 3.9%. The annual inflation, measured by the change in the average hourly wage, decreased from 4.3% to 4.1%. As a result of this disappointing data for Dollar bulls, the Dollar Index (DXY) plummeted to 105.09, while EUR/USD reached a six-week high at 1.0718.

Towards the end of the workweek, the publication of the ISM Services PMI index revealed that business activity in the U.S. services sector was growing at a slower pace in October. The PMI declined to 51.8 from 53.6 in September. This value was below the market's expectation of 53.0. More detailed data showed that the index of service prices (the inflation component) decreased slightly from 58.9 to 58.6, and the employment index dropped from 53.4 to 50.2. As a result, the Dollar continued its descent, and the final note of the week for the currency pair was heard at the level of 1.0730.

According to strategists at the Canadian Scotiabank, in the short term, EUR/USD could rise to 1.0750. In general, expert opinions regarding the near future of the currency pair are divided as follows: 45% voted for a stronger Dollar, while 60% sided with the Euro. As for technical analysis, 35% of the D1 oscillators are pointing south, while 65% are pointing north, although a third of them signal overbought conditions for the pair. Among trend indicators, priorities are clearer: 85% are looking north, with only 15% looking south. The nearest support for the pair is located around 1.0675-1.0700, followed by 1.0600-1.0620, 1.0500-1.0530, 1.0450, 1.0375, 1.0200-1.0255, 1.0130, and 1.0000. Bulls will encounter resistance around 1.0745-1.0770, then 1.0800, 1.0865, 1.0945-1.0975, and 1.1090-1.1110.

Unlike the past five days, the economic calendar for the upcoming week anticipates significantly fewer important events. On Wednesday, November 8, data on inflation (CPI) in Germany and retail sales in the Eurozone will be released. Additionally, on this day, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to give a speech. He can also be heard again on Thursday, November 9. As is customary, Thursday will also bring data on the number of initial jobless claims in the United States.

GBP/USD: A Good Week for the Pound

Looking at the results of central bank meetings in many countries, there is a sense that the global trend of tightening monetary policy has come to an end. Both the ECB and the Fed left interest rates unchanged. The Bank of England (BoE) also did the same on November 2 at its meeting, leaving the key rate unchanged for the second consecutive time at 5.25%. According to the regulator, such a decision should support the recovery of the economy and employment levels in the United Kingdom. The short-term inflation forecast was revised upwards. However, the central bank leaders noted that inflation in the third quarter had decreased to 6.7%, which was better than expected in August, and its target level of 2.0% is likely to be reached by the end of 2025.

Despite the BoE keeping the rate unchanged, the market perceived this decision as hawkish because three out of nine members of the bank's leadership voted for an increase. Furthermore, the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, emphasized during a press conference that considering a rate cut would be premature. He stated, "Monetary policy is likely to remain restrictive for an extended period." Investors are aware that central banks use such forward guidance as a tool to influence the market, so it is unlikely that the regulator will switch to a soft monetary policy anytime soon. Of course, there are no guarantees that the BoE will stick to its promises if inflation does not move towards the target level. However, at the moment, the market believes Andrew Bailey, which has supported the British currency.

The pound received its strongest bullish impulse after the release of US labor market data on November 3. At that moment, GBP/USD surged upwards, continued its ascent, and closed the week at 1.2380. According to Scotiabank economists, the short-term trading model for the British currency looks promising. They note an increase in demand for the pound amid its weakening since mid-July and do not rule out a rise of GBP/USD to the 1.2450 level. As for the median forecast for the near future, 35% of analysts voted for the pair's rise, 50% believe that the pair will resume its movement towards the 1.2000 target, and the remaining 15% remain neutral. On the D1 timeframe, 75% of trend indicators point to a pair's rise and are coloured green, while the remaining 25% are red. Oscillators show the same readings: 75% point upwards (a quarter of them are in the overbought zone), and 25% voted for a decline. In case the pair moves south, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2330, 1.2210, 1.2145, 1.2040-1.2085, 1.1960, and 1.1800-1.1840, 1.1720, 1.1595-1.1625, 1.1450-1.1475. In the event of an upward movement, the pair will face resistance at levels 1.2390-1.2425, 1.2450-1.2520, 1.2575, 1.2690-1.2710, 1.2785-1.2820, 1.2940, and 1.3140.

The speech by the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, scheduled for November 8, and the release of preliminary GDP data for the country for Q3 on November 10 can be highlighted in the events of the upcoming week related to the United Kingdom's economy.

USD/JPY: A Middling Week for the Yen

If the ECB, the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of England have left interest rates unchanged, what could be expected from their Japanese counterparts? Of course, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) made the decision to maintain the parameters of its monetary policy during its meeting on Tuesday, October 31. They have been in this position for a very long time. The regulator not only retained the interest rate at a negative level of -0.1% but also kept the yield on 10-year government bonds (JGB) unchanged. Some market participants had hoped that after the inflation growth data, BoJ would raise their yield ceiling from 1% to at least 1.25%. (It's worth noting that the yield on similar US securities is close to 5.0%). However, instead, the Bank of Japan continued to ignore obvious signs of increasing inflationary pressure. Although in the Tokyo region, the CPI rose from 2.8% to 3.3% (YoY) in October. Additionally, despite assurances from high-ranking officials about the priority of industrial production growth, this indicator declined from -4.4% to -4.6% in annual terms.

All of this pushed USD/JPY to a high of 151.71. It would have likely remained there if not for the results of the Federal Reserve's meeting and US labor market data. As a result, it started the week at 149.63 and finished at 149.34. Considering the pair's high volatility, the outcome can be considered neutral.

Economists from the largest banking group in the Netherlands, ING, believe that the pair will end the year not far from 150.00. Regarding its near-term prospects, 65% of analysts expect the yen to strengthen, 35% take a neutral position, and there were no votes for it to rise above 151.00 at the time of writing this review. Technical analysis indicators appear quite mixed this time. On the D1 timeframe, 50% of trend indicators are in green, and the same percentage is in red. Among oscillators, one-third voted for the pair's rise, one-third for its fall, and one-third remained neutral-gray. The nearest support level is located in the range of 148.45-148.80, then 146.85-147.30, 145.90-146.10, 145.30, 144.45, 143.75-144.05, and 142.20. The closest resistance is 150.00-150.15, followed by 150.40-150.80, 151.90 (October 2022 high), and 152.80-153.15.

There is no significant economic data regarding the state of the Japanese economy scheduled for release in the coming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Important Insights into the Past and Future

First, a few words about the past month. Firstly, on Tuesday, October 31, bitcoin celebrated its birthday. It was on this day in 2008 that someone using the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto published (or it was published) a document titled "Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System." At the same time, it's worth noting that bitcoin itself emerged as a cryptocurrency on the market only on January 3, 2009. On that day, a block was mined, in which the date and a brief excerpt from an article in The Times were written: "The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks." On January 12, 2009, Nakamoto made the first transaction on the network, sending cryptocurrency to developer Hal Finney. In the same year, bitcoin was listed on the New Liberty Standart exchange. On it, you could buy 1309 BTC for just $1 (which is nearly $55 million today).

The second significant event was not the last day of October but the entire month. We are talking about the "Uptober effect" (a term formed from the English words "up" and "October"). According to observations by CoinGecko experts, in eight of the last ten years, the cryptocurrency market has shown growth in October compared to the previous month. On average, the "Uptober effect" led to a 14% increase in the total capitalization of digital assets, ranging from 7.3% in 2022 to 42.9% in 2021. The exceptions were 2014 and 2018 when the market fell by 12.7% and 8.3% in one month, respectively.

This year, starting at $27,000 on October 1, bitcoin tested the $35,000 level on October 24, showing an increase of approximately 30%. The final note of October placed the flagship cryptocurrency at $34,545. Several altcoins like Solana (SOL) and Chainlink (LINK) also demonstrated significant rallies. All these cryptocurrencies, paired with USD, are available for trading on the NordFX broker.

We have already mentioned that lately bitcoin has lost its inverse and direct correlation and has "decoupled" from both the US dollar and major risk assets. This was the case in the past week as well. Digital gold rose along with the US dollar's ascent and didn't react to the rise of stock indices like the S&P500. As a result, BTC/USD showed modest growth over the course of seven days.

According to Michael Van De Poppe, the founder of the venture company Eight and CEO of MN Trading, bitcoin has officially entered a bull market phase. The expert believes that the asset is ready for a rally to $50,000, followed by a correction, and then a new all-time high (ATH). Van De Poppe noted that bitcoin might face resistance at $38,000 but is likely to continue its rise and reach $45,000-50,000 in January 2024. However, the specialist also points out that a drop below $33,000 is still possible, and he sees it as an excellent opportunity to open long positions. The creators of the information resource Look Into Bitcoin also believe that after surpassing the $34,000 price level, the early phase of a bull market has begun. The next targets are $41,900 and $65,050.

What events in the near and not-so-distant future could have a significant impact on the crypto market? Let's list the most important ones, noting that many of them are happening or will happen in the United States.

First, of course, is the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve (FRS). The "golden times" for digital gold were during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic when the regulator literally flooded the market with streams of cheap money to support the economy, some of which went to risky assets like cryptocurrencies. Starting at $6,500 in March 2020, a year later in April 2021, BTC/USD reached a high of $64,800, showing a 900% increase. Then, the American regulator shifted towards tightening its policy and raising interest rates, and by 2022, the pair was trading around $16,000. Now, crypto investors are waiting for the Federal Reserve to pivot towards easing again and hope that this will happen in the next year.

The US government regulatory bodies have lately been exerting significant negative pressure on the crypto industry. Perhaps something will change with the arrival of a new president in the White House in 2024. At least some of the candidates for this position promise support for the industry. For now, all the attention is focused on the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission). The head of the SEC, Gary Gensler, has repeatedly stated that he is willing to recognize only bitcoin as a commodity, and in his opinion, all altcoins should be regulated under securities laws. Under this pressure, Ethereum, for example, significantly lagged behind bitcoin in terms of price dynamics. This year, at the time of writing this review, ETH has gained about 52%, while BTC has grown by twice as much, around 102%.

Legal battles between the SEC and representatives of the crypto industry are also drawing attention. Recently, Reuters and Bloomberg reported that the Commission will not appeal a court decision in favor of Grayscale Investments. There is also information that the SEC is ending its legal process against Ripple and its executives. However, the cold war with major crypto exchange Binance and its leadership continues. As a result, Binance's share in the spot market has already fallen from 55% to 34% this year. If the US Department of Justice joins forces with more severe charges on the SEC's side, it could deal a significant blow to the crypto market.

The appearance of spot BTC-ETFs also depends on the SEC. According to JPMorgan bank experts, a positive decision by the SEC on registering the first such funds can be expected "within months." "The timing of approval [...] remains uncertain, but it is likely to happen [...] before January 10, 2024 - the final deadline for the applications of ARK Invest and 21 Co. This is the earliest of the various final deadlines that the SEC must respond to," note JPMorgan experts. At the same time, experts also emphasize that the Commission, by supporting fair competition, may approve all applications at once.

The anticipation of the imminent launch of spot BTC-ETFs in the US is fuelling institutional interest in cryptocurrency. According to some estimates, this interest is around $15 trillion, which could eventually lead to BTC/USD rising to $200,000. Skybridge Capital's strategists even mention a larger figure of $250,000. However, due to obstacles from the SEC, according to Ernst & Young analysts, institutional interest is mainly deferred.

Peter Schiff, the CEO of Euro Pacific Capital and a prominent gold bug, holds the opposite view. According to him, the final approval of spot bitcoin ETFs will mark the end of the bull run for the leading cryptocurrency. Currently, bitcoin is trading around $35,000 because speculators are driving up the price, betting on a positive regulator decision. When the decision is made, there will be no more room for such speculation, which could mark the peak of the rally if bitcoin doesn't crash before that. In Schiff's opinion, cryptocurrency traders may start selling their coins and taking profits even before the SEC makes any decision.

Something that doesn't depend on the regulator is the halving. Recall that in April 2024, the block reward will be halved, reducing from 6,250 BTC to 3,125 BTC, which is expected to lead to reduced issuance. According to some experts, this is a powerful deflationary factor that creates supply shortages and contributes to the rise in the value of bitcoin. Since the coin supply is limited, co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital, Anthony Pompliano, not only expresses optimism about a bull run for bitcoin but also calls it the "most disciplined central bank in the world." According to an optimistic forecast from Ark Invest, BTC could rise to $1.5 million by 2030.

However, the CEO of MN Trading, Van De Poppe, predicts that before bitcoin starts setting new highs, there will first be consolidation and sideways movement for an extended period after the April halving. Even more pessimism is added by a trader and analyst with the pseudonym Rekt Capital, who expects a sharp drop in BTC/USD by March 2024. After the halving, this specialist also anticipates consolidation, but in a very low range of $24,000-30,000, and only after that, in his opinion, the pair will enter a parabolic growth phase towards six-figure levels.

At the time of writing this review, on Friday, November 3, BTC/USD is trading at $34,590. The total market capitalization of the crypto market is $1.29 trillion ($1.25 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in the Greed zone, though it has dropped from 72 to 65 points.

To conclude this review, in our irregular crypto life hacks section, we have an interesting tip. Where can you use the heat generated from cryptocurrency mining? The answer is in a sauna. A sauna in Brooklyn, New York, has started using the heat generated by mining equipment as a source of water heating. Saunas are becoming increasingly popular among Americans, and this twist benefits miners as it provides an additional argument in discussions about the public utility or significance of such entrepreneurial activities. And this is in New York, near the 40th parallel. Just imagine how useful this life hack could be in northern countries like Norway!


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Forex | Forex Trading | NordFX