Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

[FXOpen Trader]

EUR/USD and EUR/JPY: Euro Eyes Fresh Increase

EUR/USD struggled to clear 1.2200 and recently corrected lower. EUR/JPY is trading in a positive zone, but it must clear 133.70 for more upsides.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY

• 
  
• The Euro declined below the 1.2150 and 1.2120 support levels, and tested 1.2100.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2142 on the hourly chart.
• EUR/JPY gained pace after it broke the 132.80 and 133.00 resistance levels.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 132.90 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro started a fresh decline from the 1.2200 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair broke the 1.2150 and 1.2120 support levels to move into a short-term bearish zone.

The pair even settled well below 1.2150 and the 50 hourly simple moving average. A low was formed near 1.2092 on FXOpen and the pair is now correcting losses. There was a break above the 1.2120 resistance level and the 50 hourly SMA.

There was also a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent drop from the 1.2192 high to 1.2092 low. The pair is now facing a strong resistance near the 1.2140 and 1.2150 levels.

There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2142 on the hourly chart. The trend line is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent drop from the 1.2192 high to 1.2092 low. A proper break above the trend line resistance could pop the pair higher towards the 1.2200 resistance zone.

The next major resistance is near the 1.2220 level. Any more gains could set the pace for a fresh high above the 1.2150 level in the near term. On the downside, an immediate support is near the 1.2100 level.

If there is a downside break, EUR/USD might continue to move down towards the 1.2060 support. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of the 1.2020 support region.




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[FXOpen Trader]

LTC and EOS – Was the correction over?

LTC/USD

The price of Litecoin has been in recovery from the 8th of June when it fell to around $146 at its lowest point. From there the price went on to form a higher low and higher high to $180 area, breaking out from the symmetrical triangle in which it was since the 27th of May. Today we have seen a pullback as a retest of the prior resistance for support, and as support was present we have seen a bounce from there. Currently, the price is being traded at $172.5 area and is still moving in an upward trajectory.

Looking at the hourly chart you can see that the price of Litecoin most likely ended its corrective stage on the 8th of June. This could have been an ABC correction from the 27th of May when the first impulsive move was seen. If so, then from the 8th we have seen the start of another impulse wave to the upside. Another possibility in a positive scenario could be that the price made a five-wave correction count ABCDE to the 12th of June from where the next impulse started. In that case the price has made a three-wave increase with the today seen pullback being its 4th wave out of the five-wave impulse.

Now in both of these positive scenarios, the price would be expected to go higher to the upside in an impulsive manner and make a higher high compared to the one on the 27th of May when the price reached $208.89.

However, there is a negative scenario still in play. If the price ended its three-wave ABC correction on the 8th of June the next structure could end as a three-wave correction to the upside before another downfall. In that case, the price could continue its downward trajectory in the short-term and fall back below the triangle’s resistance level and also the starting point of the prior increase at about $154.3.






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[FXOpen Trader]

Gold Price Slides Below Key Support, Oil Price Trims Gains

Gold price started a major decline below the $1,850 and $1,820 support levels. Crude oil price is also trimming gains and it traded below $70.50.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

• 
  
• Gold price started a fresh decline from well above the $1,850 level against the US Dollar.
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,825 on the hourly chart of gold.
• Crude oil price climbed higher towards $72.75 before correcting lower.
• There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near $71.20 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

This week, gold price faced an increase in selling pressure near $1,900 against the US Dollar. The price started a major decline and it traded below many important supports near $1,880 and $1,850.

The price even settled below the $1,850 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There was a break below the $1,820 support and $1,800. A low is formed near $1,762 on FXOpen and the price is now correcting losses.

An immediate resistance on the upside is near the $1,790 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $1,862 swing high to $1,762 low.

The first major resistance is near the $1,800 level. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,825 on the hourly chart of gold. An intermediate resistance is near the $1,815 level and the 50 hourly SMA.

The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $1,862 swing high to $1,762 low is also near the $1,815 level. Conversely, the price might resume its decline below $1,780. An initial support is near the $1,775 level.

The first major support is near the $1,765 level. The next key support is near the $1,750 level, below which the price might continue to move down towards the $1,720 level in the near term.




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[FXOpen Trader]

GBP/USD Nosedives, USD/CAD Starts Major Increase

GBP/USD started a sharp downward move after it failed to clear 1.4200. USD/CAD is surging and it recently cleared the 1.2440 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD

• 
  
• The British Pound started a fresh decline from well above the 1.4100 level.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3850 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• USD/CAD gained bullish momentum above the 1.2350 and 1.2400 resistance levels.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2410 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound made a couple of attempts to settle above 1.4150 and clear 1.4200 against the US Dollar. However, the GBP/USD pair failed to continue higher, and it started a fresh decline from well above the 1.4100 level.

The pair gained bearish momentum below the key 1.4000 support zone. There was a clear break below the 1.3920 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even broke the 1.3840 support and traded as low as 1.3790 on FXOpen.

The pair is now consolidating losses above the 1.3800 level. An initial resistance on the upside is near the 1.3840 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3850 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

The next hurdle is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.4132 swing high to 1.3790 low. The main hurdle is near the 1.3900 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

Any more gains could lead the pair towards the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.4132 swing high to 1.3790 low. An initial support on the downside is near the 1.3800 level. The first major support is near the 1.3780 level.

Any more losses could open the doors for a move towards the 1.3720 support zone. The next major support sits near the 1.3650 level.




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[FXOpen Trader]

The Federal Reserve Turns Hawkish, Sending the US Dollar Higher

Last Wednesday, the Federal Reserve of the United States (Fed) took financial markets by surprise. It delivered a hawkish message, as suggested by the dot plot that showed two possible rate hikes in 2023, rather than just one as the market participants expected.

As a reminder to all traders and investors, the Fed has a dual mandate – to maintain price stability and to create jobs. It delivers its monetary decisions based on interpreting the balance between the two parts of its mandate.

While job creation posed challenges due to the coronavirus pandemic, the Fed had an easier task fulfilling the inflation-targeting mandate.

Like most central banks in the developed world, the Fed targets inflation close to 2%. Or, at least it used to have this target.

It changed it last August. At the Jackson Hole Symposium last August, the Fed shifted its inflation target from reaching close to 2% to averaging 2%. From that moment on, speculations mounted as to what is the period the Fed will consider for averaging inflation.

Based on its recent decision, it appears that inflation, and not employment, is a concern for the Fed.
US Dollar Ripping Higher on Hawkish Fed

One may say that the Fed took markets by surprise, but the staff’s economic projections left no other choice. The US economic growth forecast was lifted higher for both 2021 and 2023, and so was the inflation forecast.

As such, the Fed raised the interest rate on excess reserves by five basis points in a first attempt to normalize rates. Judging by the market’s reaction, they were taken by surprise as the US dollar gained across the board on the Fed’s message.

The EURUSD pair closed the week well below 1.19, after trading with a bid tone above 1.21 for most of the past two months. Also, the AUDUSD or the GBPUSD lost ground, in a piece of further evidence that the US dollar bears were taken by surprise.

Moving forward, it remains to be seen what will other central banks do. Brazil already reacted, by raising the interest rates, in a classic move from an emerging market’s central bank after the Fed turns hawkish.

The big question is – what will other central banks from the developed world do? The first one to watch is the Bank of England, as the Monetary Policy Committee is due to deliver its decision this upcoming Thursday.



FXOpen Blog

 

[FXOpen Trader]

BTC and XRP – Recovery shortly expected


BTC/USD

The price of Bitcoin has been on a decline since the 15th of June when it was trading at $41,151 at its highest point. From there we have seen a decrease of 24.5% measured to its lowest point today at around $31,240. Now the price is slightly higher but is currently testing the horizontal support level from the 23rd of May.

On the 4-hour chart, we can see that this is the third time the price has been trading on its lower level of the horizontal range that formed from the 23rd of May. But doing so it weakened the level which is why it potentially won’t hold for much longer. However, the wave structure implies that we might see a recovery shortly at least as the 2nd sub-wave of the next three-wave correction to the downside after which we could see a larger recovery.

From here a breakout to the downside isn’t so likely but rather the price could now find another support here and bounce but only for a lower high compared to the one on the 15th of June. Another possibility would be that from the 8th till the 15th of June we have seen the 3rd wave out of the higher degree correction with its first wave being the upward move from the 23rd till the 26th of May. In that case, the price could continue its downside trajectory but also in the near term a move to the upside would now be expected.




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[FXOpen Trader]

EUR/USD Eyes Recovery, USD/CHF Remains Elevated

EUR/USD declined heavily below 1.2000 and it tested 1.1850. USD/CHF is rising and it could rally further if it clears the 0.9200 and 0.9220 resistance levels.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF

• 
  
• The Euro started a fresh decline from well above the 1.2000 zone against the US Dollar.
• There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance near 1.1900 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
• USD/CHF gained bullish momentum above the 0.9050 and 0.9120 resistance levels.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.9200 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro struggled to gain pace above the 1.2150 level and it started a major decline against the US Dollar. As a result, the EUR/USD pair broke the main 1.2000 support zone to move into a bearish zone.

The pair even declined below the 1.1920 support zone and settled below the 50 hourly simple moving average. A low was formed near 1.1846 on FXOpen and the pair is now correcting losses. It corrected above the 1.1880 and 1.1900 resistance levels.

There was a break below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.2147 high to 1.1846 low. There was also a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance near 1.1900 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

It is now trading nicely above the 1.1900 support zone and the 50 hourly SMA. On the upside, the pair is facing hurdles near the 1.1940 and 1.1950 levels. A clear upside break above 1.1950 could set the pace for a larger recovery.

The next major resistance is near the 1.2000 zone. On the downside, there is a major support forming near the 1.1900 zone. The next key support is near the 1.1880 level. A downside break below the 1.1880 support could restart decline. The next major support could be near the 1.1820 level.




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[FXOpen Trader]

LTC and EOS – The start of a another recovery seen most likely

LTC/USD

The price of Litecoin has been on the rise since Tuesday when it came down to $104.9 at its lowest point. From there we have seen an increase of 27% as it reached $133.3 at its highest point today. Currently, it is trading slightly lower but is still in an upward trajectory.

On the hourly chart, we can see that the price fell into a lower low compared to the May 23rd one and spiked to the upside, reaching the broken downtrend support which is being now tested for resistance. If the price finds resistance here another move to the downside would be expected, but only as a pullback before further upside continuation. This is so because on the 22nd we have most likely seen the end of the corrective five-wave move from the 27th of May so now a move to the upside like it developed from the 23rd till the 27th would be expected.

The price could now increase as much as 35% but it would be expected to go lower than on the 27th when it came up to $209. This is because the price made a lower low which is why a lower high would be more likely. Another possibility could be that we have seen the start of a completely new impulse wave to the upside and that the 22nd of June’s low was the completion of the higher degree down move. But this is going to be validated from the type of descending move we see after this expected rise.




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[FXOpen Trader]

AUD/USD and NZD/USD Eye More Upsides Above Resistance

AUD/USD started a decent recovery wave above 0.7550. NZD/USD is also rising and it could continue to rise if it clears the 0.7100 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD

• 
  
• The Aussie Dollar found support near 0.7475 after a steady decline against the US Dollar.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 0.7560 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
• NZD/USD also started a decent increase from the 0.6925 zone, and it climbed above 0.7000.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 0.7050 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

After a major decline, the Aussie Dollar found support near the 0.7475 zone against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair started a steady recovery after it broke the 0.7500 resistance zone.

It broke the 0.7550 resistance zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even broke the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the 0.7715 high to 0.7476 low (formed on FXOpen).

An initial resistance on the upside is near the 0.7595. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the 0.7715 high to 0.7476 low. A proper break above the 0.7595 and 0.7600 resistance levels could open the doors for a steady increase.

The next major resistance is near the 0.7660 level. Any more gains could lead the pair towards the 0.7700 level. Conversely, the pair could correct gains from 0.7600.

An initial support on the downside is near the 0.7560 level. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 0.7560 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD. The next major support is near the 0.7550 level. If there is a downside break below the trend line support, the pair could extend its decline towards the 0.7500 level.




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[FXOpen Trader]

GBP/USD and EUR/GBP: British Pound Could Continue To Struggle

GBP/USD failed to clear the key 1.4000 resistance zone and corrected lower. EUR/GBP is rising and it might gain pace if it clears the 0.8600 barrier.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP

• 
  
• The British Pound failed to gain pace above the main 1.4000 resistance zone.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3920 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• EUR/GBP started a fresh increase after it found a strong support near the 0.8530 zone.
• There is a short-term contracting triangle forming with resistance near 0.8595 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound failed to reclaim the 1.4000 handle and it started a fresh decline against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair broke the 1.3900 support zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

The pair even spiked below 1.3800 before it found support near 1.3785. A low was formed near 1.3786 and the pair recently started an upside correction. There was a break above the 1.3850 and 1.3900 resistance levels.

The pair even moved above 1.3950, but it failed to clear the 1.4000 resistance zone. A high was formed near 1.4000 and the pair is now moving lower.

It broke the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3786 swing low to 1.4000 high. It is now trading below 1.3900 and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3920 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

An immediate support on the downside is near the 1.3865 level. It is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3786 swing low to 1.4000 high.

A downside break below the 1.3865 level might call for a fresh decline towards the 1.3800 level. On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 1.3920 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.4000 level.

A successful close above 1.3920 and a follow up move above 1.4000 could open the doors for a move towards the 1.4120 resistance.



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[FXOpen Trader]

Financial Markets Turn Their Attention to Jobs Data

Financial markets reversed their initial reaction after the latest FOMC Statement and press conference. In the two days that followed the June Fed meeting, the US dollar gained ground significantly against its peers in the developed world.

As such, the EURUSD fell from above 1.22 to 1.1850, the AUDUSD dropped a couple of hundred of pips, while the GBPUSD was strongly rejected at the 1.42. Also, stocks dropped in the United States and triggered a sharp decline in other equity markets too.

But it all lasted only two days. The week that just ended has seen the market participants changing their minds. Stocks reversed sharply, the US dollar weakness resumed, and overall risk-on outperformed.

What changed in the meantime? The answer comes from the Fed. Last Tuesday, Fed’s Chair Jerome Powell testified in front of the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis, and he downplayed the hawkish statement. Moreover, Fed members held speeches the entire week, reassuring markets that the accommodative measures will remain in place for quite some time despite the hawkish dot plot.

Furthermore, the Fed still sees inflation as transitory. Food and energy prices are expected to come down past 2021, even though right now inflation exceeds the Fed’s target.

Focus Turns to Job Creation

Now that the inflation has reached the Fed’s target, the only chance the US dollar bulls have is for the job market to show significant improvements. While the strong economic growth and improvements in the labor market should bode well for the currency and the stock market indices, further developments in the labor market will bring the Fed closer to its job creation mandate.

Therefore, the Fed’s hawkish message will have greater credibility if the US economy is able to create more jobs. We will find out as soon as next week the current state of the labor market as the Non-Farm Payrolls report for the month of May is due.




FXOpen Blog

 

[FXOpen Trader]

EUR/USD Eyes Fresh Increase, USD/JPY Could Extend Losses

EUR/USD is likely to start a steady increase if it clears the 1.1920 resistance zone. USD/JPY could extend its decline below the 110.40 support zone in the near term.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY

• 
  
• The Euro is consolidating losses above the 1.1880 support zone.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1915 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
• USD/JPY declined below the 110.00 and 110.60 support levels.
• There is a major declining channel forming with resistance near 110.85 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

After a close below 1.2000, the Euro saw bearish moves against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair even tested the 1.1850 support zone before starting a decent upward move.

The pair climbed above the 1.1900 resistance zone. It even broke 1.1950 and the 50 hourly simple moving average. However, the pair failed to clear the 1.2000 zone. A high was formed near 1.1974 on FXOpen and the pair corrected gains.

It tested the 1.1880 zone and it is now rising. There was a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1974 high to 1.1877 low.

It is now facing resistance near the 1.1915 zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1915 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The next key resistance is near the 1.1925 level.

The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1974 high to 1.1877 low is also near 1.1925. A close above 1.1915 and 1.1925 could open the doors for a steady increase.

An intermediate support is near the 1.1880 level. The next major support is near the 1.1850 level, below which the pair could drop towards the 1.1800 support.




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[FXOpen Trader]

Gold Price and Crude Oil Price Aim Higher

Gold price started a decent recovery wave from the $1,750 support. Crude oil price is rising and it is now trading nicely above the $74.00 level.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

• 
  
• Gold price started a fresh recovery wave after forming a base above $1,750 against the US Dollar.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,780 on the hourly chart of gold.
• Crude oil price climbed higher and it even surged above the $75.00 resistance.
• There was a break above a major contracting triangle with resistance near $73.65 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

This week, gold price formed a decent support base above the $1,750 zone against the US Dollar. The price started a fresh upward move and it surpassed the $1,760 resistance zone.

The price even settled above the $1,765 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. However, the price seems to be facing a strong resistance near the $1,780 zone. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,780 on the hourly chart of gold.

A high is formed near $1,782 on FXOpen and the price is now consolidating gains. An upside break above the trend line could spark more gains above $1,782.

An immediate resistance on the upside is near the $1,795 level. The first major resistance is near the $1,800 level. If the price breaks the $1,800 level, it could accelerate higher. In the stated case, the price could rise towards the $1,840 zone.

Conversely, the price might resume its decline below $1,775. An initial support is near the $1,765 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the $1,750 low to $,1782 high.

The first major support is near the $1,760 level. The next key support is near the $1,750 level, below which the price might continue to move down towards the $1,720 level in the near term.

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[Jason]

Gold Price and Crude Oil Price Aim Higher

Gold price started a decent recovery wave from the $1,750 support. Crude oil price is rising and it is now trading nicely above the $74.00 level.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

• 
  
• Gold price started a fresh recovery wave after forming a base above $1,750 against the US Dollar.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,780 on the hourly chart of gold.
• Crude oil price climbed higher and it even surged above the $75.00 resistance.
• There was a break above a major contracting triangle with resistance near $73.65 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

This week, gold price formed a decent support base above the $1,750 zone against the US Dollar. The price started a fresh upward move and it surpassed the $1,760 resistance zone.

The price even settled above the $1,765 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. However, the price seems to be facing a strong resistance near the $1,780 zone. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,780 on the hourly chart of gold.

A high is formed near $1,782 on FXOpen and the price is now consolidating gains. An upside break above the trend line could spark more gains above $1,782.

An immediate resistance on the upside is near the $1,795 level. The first major resistance is near the $1,800 level. If the price breaks the $1,800 level, it could accelerate higher. In the stated case, the price could rise towards the $1,840 zone.

Conversely, the price might resume its decline below $1,775. An initial support is near the $1,765 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the $1,750 low to $,1782 high.

The first major support is near the $1,760 level. The next key support is near the $1,750 level, below which the price might continue to move down towards the $1,720 level in the near term.

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Do you think U.S. Dollar will now start its decline?

 

[FXOpen Trader]

GBP/USD and GBP/JPY: British Pound Eyes Strong Recovery

GBP/USD is slowly recovering, but it must break 1.3850 for more upsides. Similarly, GBP/JPY could gain pace if it clears the 1.3850 resistance zone in the near term.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY

• 
  
• The British Pound is attempting a decent recovery wave above the 1.3800 zone against the US Dollar.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3835 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• GBP/JPY seems to be forming a base above the 153.00 support zone.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 153.40 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

In the past few sessions, the British Pound saw bearish moves below the 1.4000 zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair traded below many supports near 1.3900 and 1.3850 to move into a bearish zone.

The pair even traded below the 1.3800 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. A low is formed near 1.3731 on FXOpen and the pair is currently correcting losses. There was a break above the 1.3780 resistance zone.

The pair recovered above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the 1.3999 high to 1.3731 low. The pair is now trading above the 1.3800 zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

On the upside, an initial resistance on the is near the 1.3835 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3835 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The next major resistance is near the 1.3850 level.

The main resistance is near 1.3865 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the 1.3999 high to 1.3731 low. The next key resistance is near the 1.3900 level, above which the pair could rise towards the main 1.4000 resistance.

On the downside, an initial support is near the 1.3800 level and the 50 hourly SMA. If there is a break below the 1.3800 support, the pair could test the 1.3750 support. If there are additional losses, the pair could decline towards the 1.3640 level.




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[FXOpen Trader]

GBP/USD and GBP/JPY: British Pound Eyes Strong Recovery

GBP/USD is slowly recovering, but it must break 1.3850 for more upsides. Similarly, GBP/JPY could gain pace if it clears the 1.3850 resistance zone in the near term.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY

• 
  
• The British Pound is attempting a decent recovery wave above the 1.3800 zone against the US Dollar.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3835 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• GBP/JPY seems to be forming a base above the 153.00 support zone.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 153.40 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

In the past few sessions, the British Pound saw bearish moves below the 1.4000 zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair traded below many supports near 1.3900 and 1.3850 to move into a bearish zone.

The pair even traded below the 1.3800 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. A low is formed near 1.3731 on FXOpen and the pair is currently correcting losses. There was a break above the 1.3780 resistance zone.

The pair recovered above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the 1.3999 high to 1.3731 low. The pair is now trading above the 1.3800 zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

On the upside, an initial resistance on the is near the 1.3835 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3835 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The next major resistance is near the 1.3850 level.

The main resistance is near 1.3865 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the 1.3999 high to 1.3731 low. The next key resistance is near the 1.3900 level, above which the pair could rise towards the main 1.4000 resistance.

On the downside, an initial support is near the 1.3800 level and the 50 hourly SMA. If there is a break below the 1.3800 support, the pair could test the 1.3750 support. If there are additional losses, the pair could decline towards the 1.3640 level.




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[FXOpen Trader]

Crude Oil Price Diverges from US Dollar Strength

One of the most interesting divergences in financial markets formed recently. The price of oil remains stubbornly elevated, closing the previous week above $75 per one barrel, despite ongoing dollar strength.

Since April 2020, the price of oil has come a long way. It dipped below the zero level for the first time ever, as the futures market settled close to -$40 twelve months ago. But from that moment on, it ripped higher, recovering all the pandemic losses and some more.

Because oil remains a big chunk of energy consumption in the United States and the rest of the world, higher oil prices fuel higher inflation. Higher inflation, on the other hand, pressures central banks to act and raise the interest rates, as most of them have a price stability mandate given by an inflation-targeting framework.

Commodities vs. Interest Rates

A classic correlation in financial markets tells us that commodities tend to underperform when interest rates are rising. It is not the case this time.

While the interest rates are not off their lows, the Federal Reserve of the United States started to talk hawkish. At its last meeting, the Fed signaled more rate hikes in the near future than the market expected, triggering a move higher in the US dollar.

As such, the EURUSD pair fell from above 1.22 to 1.18, the GBPUSD from 1.42 to 1.38, and the AUDUSD from 0.78 to below 0.75. But the strength in the US dollar did not bring a correction in the price of oil. Just the opposite.

A couple of things may help explain the divergence. On the one hand, the recent Iranian presidential elections have postponed the likelihood for Iranian oil to hit the market anytime soon. On the other hand, the OPEC+ recent meetings failed to commit new supplies for the second half of the year, despite the fact that demand is forecast to rise by 3 million barrels/day in the second half of the year.

Hence, the imbalances in supply and demand point to further upside in the price of oil, despite the Fed’s hawkishness. Many voices in the market suggest that the Fed will signal the tapering of its asset purchases at the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium in August.

Therefore, until August, the US dollar’s strength will likely persist in expectations of the Fed’s message. Yet, as long as it remains above $70, the price of oil remains bid too, threatening with a move above $80 and beyond.




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BTC and XRP – Breakout from the range will dictate the next trend

BTC/USD

The price of Bitcoin has been on the rise since the 26th of Jun and made it back to the $36,000 area on the 29th. From there we have seen a descending move with the price moving sideways after. Currently, it is being traded at $$33,893 and made a lower high today compared to yesterday’s one and is moving to the downside.

Looking at the hourly chart, you can see that a triangle is being formed which could be the 2nd sub-wave of the higher degree descending move. Considering that the prior move ended most likely as the ABC correction to the upside with the price falling back inside the territory of the lower range of the 1st wave from the 22nd. this is currently more likely. In this case, the price is to form the 3rd wave from the descending move that started on the 16th of Jun when another three-wave ABC to the upside completed.

If this is true, then we will see a breakout to the downside below the $31,000 mark, which served as a strong horizontal support level. However, this sideways movement that formed a triangle could be a consolidation range before another move to the upside that is set to break the $36,183 horizontal resistance. This is why the validation will come as a breakout direction from the mentioned triangle and will dictate the next dominant trend.




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EUR/USD and EUR/JPY: Euro Remains At Risk of More Downsides

EUR/USD started a fresh decline and it settled below 1.1900. EUR/JPY is showing bearish signs and upsides are likely to remain limited above 131.00.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY

• 
  
• The Euro declined below the 1.1920 and 1.1900 support levels, and tested 1.1800.
• There was a break below a short-term ascending channel with support near 1.1865 on the hourly chart.
• EUR/JPY started a major decline after it failed to stay above the 131.50 support.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 131.80 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro started a fresh decline from the 1.2000 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair broke the 1.1920 and 1.1900 support levels to move into a bearish zone.

The pair even settled well below 1.1900 and the 50 hourly simple moving average. Recently, there was a break below a short-term ascending channel with support near 1.1865 on the hourly chart.

A low was formed near 1.1807 on FXOpen and the pair is now consolidating losses. An immediate resistance is near the 1.1828 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1894 high to 1.1807 low.

The first major resistance is near the 1.1850 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1894 high to 1.1807 low.

Any more gains could set the pace for a move towards the 1.1900 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.1950 level. On the downside, an immediate support is near the 1.1800 level.

If there is a downside break, EUR/USD might continue to move down towards the 1.1760 support. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of the 1.1700 region. An intermediate support could be near the 1.1720 level.




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LTC and EOS – Further lows expected

LTC/USD

The price of Litecoin reached $148 on the 4th of July which was the same level as on the prior high. From there we have seen the start of a descending move and is currently being traded at $130 and is still in a downward trajectory.

On the hourly chart, you can see that the price broke out from the ascending support level from the 22nd of June. This is the first signal that the prior recovery ended and now we have seen the start of a descending move of the same degree as the one that lasted from the 22nd of June till the 4th of July.

July 4th high came up to the descending trendline which is the upper level of the descending triangle which formed from the 23rd of May. As the price found resistance again this validated that the previous recovery was corrective in nature in conjunction with the wave structure. This is why it is counted as the 4th corrective wave with now most likely the 5th one to the downside developing.

If this is true then we are to see a lower low compared to the one on the 22nd of June when the price of Litecoin fell to $105 area. If the descending triangle is still in play another third interaction with its support level could be seen which brings the price target to $90.




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